I have watched both preseason games and I think we are looking at a 50-50 split here. I know that historically Bush has never carried a heavy workload and he is used more as a receiver. But my gut is telling me that these two guys are splitting the workload here and Bush can be had 2-3 rounds later.
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Thomas vs Bush (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter lionsroar
- Start date
SproutDaddy
Footballguy
Not gonna happen. It will be a 3 headed committee with Thomas getting the majority of the work.
top dog
Footballguy
Thomas + Bush + who? Betts?
saintsfan1977
Footballguy
I would take Bush in PPR on the cheap and Thomas non PPR. Both will have great stats.
Happy Ragnarok
Footballguy
3 headed? Please. The rest of that rb corps is has beens and never wases.
I've said it in other threads, and I'll say it here. The last time Bush had this little competition for touches, he was a threat to lead ALL of FF in scoring. Got hurt.
Could he get hurt again? Always a possibility. Guy's not exactly made of iron.
But he is way more than just comfortable sharing half of a RBBC situation -- he thrives there. I don't merely expect him to be the "better value" here. I expect him to be a top 10 RB, with PPR top 5 likelihood. And Pierre doesn't have to suck for that to happen.
Going to be THE steal of the 2010 FF year.
I've said it in other threads, and I'll say it here. The last time Bush had this little competition for touches, he was a threat to lead ALL of FF in scoring. Got hurt.
Could he get hurt again? Always a possibility. Guy's not exactly made of iron.
But he is way more than just comfortable sharing half of a RBBC situation -- he thrives there. I don't merely expect him to be the "better value" here. I expect him to be a top 10 RB, with PPR top 5 likelihood. And Pierre doesn't have to suck for that to happen.
Going to be THE steal of the 2010 FF year.
Clifford
Footballguy
Bush might have more value due to his ADP but it's hard for me to believe, based on 2 preseason games, that all of a sudden he becomes a completely different back than he has been his entire career. I think you're still looking at mediocre rushing, receiving, and return yards each game and not much else.
Bush was on a tear that year scoring 6 TDs in 4 games, IIRC. what i've been reading is bush is healthy and feels better than ever. i like both, especially if you go WR-WR, but agree that bush is the better value a couple of rounds later.
wadegarrett
FFA Legend™
Reggie Bush will be on my team this year.
the spanker
Footballguy
I agree 1000 percent! Problem is I don't know where my league mates will take him and I want him bad. Is 4th round way too early?
karmarooster
Footballguy
agreed. Total touches 50/50 is probably too much, but maybe....PThomas 250 carries, 35 receptionsBush 175 carries, 75 receptions
SproutDaddy
Footballguy
Whomever is on the roster. Mike Bell and Lynell Hamilton aren't anything to get excited about, but they both got carries last year. All I'm saying is that it won't be a 50-50 split. I loved how Bush looked last year in his limited role, and due to his injury history Payton will keep him in that role. Thomas WILL get the bulk of the load!top dog said:
SproutDaddy
Footballguy
And.......?lionsroar said:
Brady Gaga
Footballguy
I agree that they'll keep Reggie Bush in "his role" but I could also see a nice increase in TDs since they seem to be having success with him in the red zone (from the 20 to the 5) just letting him run wide for the cone. I think he could have 600 yards rushing for 8 TDs with another 700 yards receiving for 4 TDs for his best season ever and a top 10 finish (not to mention 2 punt returns for TDs).
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SproutDaddy
Footballguy
This would be great, but I doubt either one sees this many carries.karmarooster said:
LawFitz
Footballguy
I think a 3rd RB is likely to emerge. Payton is a bustard.
That said I do like Bush's value a lot more than PT's IF he can stay healthy. And that's a big IF for a reason. Dude has been Mr. Glass throughout his NFL career. He and McFadden brothers from different mothers!
Take Reggie late and ride him while he's hot but don't expect 16.
ETA: and if/when Reggie goes down, PT's value would go thru the roof!!! Up into top 5 RB PPG status. That's the main reason why PT should be drafted much earlier. Warranted or not, it's the injury risk perception at play there.
That said I do like Bush's value a lot more than PT's IF he can stay healthy. And that's a big IF for a reason. Dude has been Mr. Glass throughout his NFL career. He and McFadden brothers from different mothers!
Take Reggie late and ride him while he's hot but don't expect 16.
ETA: and if/when Reggie goes down, PT's value would go thru the roof!!! Up into top 5 RB PPG status. That's the main reason why PT should be drafted much earlier. Warranted or not, it's the injury risk perception at play there.
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PT is a tinman as well though, so him getting injured would be par for the course as well.
SproutDaddy
Footballguy
You should really go back and research this. This is an untrue statement.
No its not. He's always banged up and has missed games every year despite never having over 150 carries. neither him or Bush are workhorses and the coaching staff knows that.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
any rushing observations were obviously based on limited opps and scant evidence...but at times last season, i thought bush flashed signs of dancing less, being more decisive, and running with more authoritativeness and physicality INSIDE (didn't bounce everything outside)...joffer said:
2009 saw a career low in touches, i think... i read that he graded his overall condition due to knee at about 75%... also read some of the reports alluded to above that overall he feels the best he has since his rookie season...
not sure about a 50/50 split in CARRIES, but good point that with an uptick of receptions for bush (relative to 2009), the distribution split of overall touches could be closer than some expect... that is if both remain healthy (don't miss more than 2 games)...
increasing the chance that both could succeed... the saints prolific passing attack creates plenty of lanes to run through and space to operate in... NO will be in the red zone as much as just about any offense in the league... if bush is an integral part of the red zone package, with thomas, there should be plenty of scoring opps to go around... and bush could surprise in a big way (always with the caveat of health)...
* postscript - his 2009 highlights (needless to say, it is easier to break it outside if it come to that, against defenses heavily preoccupied with the passing juggernaut that is drew brees and the saints
)...http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xiGFxpkXBEU
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LawFitz
Footballguy
I'm beginning to think that I might try to grab Brees/PT/Bush and start all three. I think they can support those roles and this would actually allow for drafting a lot of good WRs and/or TEs.
In a 10 team draft I could easily see...
1. Brees
3. Thomas
7. Reggie
That'll leave rds 2,4,5,6 for starters at WR and TE.
In a 10 team draft I could easily see...
1. Brees
3. Thomas
7. Reggie
That'll leave rds 2,4,5,6 for starters at WR and TE.
Unlucky
Phenom
Maybe in a 10 team draft, but Bush isn't really falling that far in the drafts I've seen. Round 5 in most 12 team leagues, especially with PPR. I think both of these guys will be very productive FF this year. It's not at all far fetched to see 24 to 26 TDs between the two of them, as well as 2500 Yds. Of course, Chris Johnson might do that all by himself, but that's another thread. I don't see a 3rd RB emerging the way Mike Bell did last year. These two are going to pick up the slack. Bush has impressed me with an improved running style going back to last year's postseason. Thomas is very talented as well, both catch the ball well, and both will be used interchangeably.
SproutDaddy
Footballguy
2 games in 3 years..........guess Calvin Johnson is a tinman as well, huh?
sho nuff
Footballguy
2 games?He missed 2 games last year.2 more in 2008.Why even count 2007...but there were several games with no stats where he was either out or never touched the ball.Im not saying the guy is made of glass...but for once, moderated is right...Thomas has been dinged up over the years and that without having too many carries on him.
Don Quixote
Footballguy
Reggie Bush is being severely undervalued. Got him for peanuts in an auction league over the weekend--about 1/10th what someone else spent on Thomas. Considering Bush is typically being drafted as a team's RB4, I think a lot of teams that draft him will be happy with him.
saintfool
Dead sexy
"Dinged up over the years?" He's been a titular starter for a season and half. In 2007, Reggie split carries with Stecker after Deuce went down. 2008, he was behind Deuce and Reggie for half the season. He only get real playing time once Reggie went down. Last year, he split carries with Mike Bell.He's not an injury risk. He's been a victim of Payton's mercurial, but often effective, attitude towards RBs. He believes in the RBBC.
sho nuff
Footballguy
I can agree he is a victim of RBBC...but he also has not been the model of great health as a starter and that is without receiving a large amount of carries.I think that is a legit concern.
saintsfan1977
Footballguy
If you think Pierre would last an entire season with 20+ carries a game you are mistaken. I am not saying he is fragile, but he has not ever gained 1000 yds rushing because of injury.Reggie while fragile was used sparingly because of microfracture surgery early last year. Payton and co. were gonna make him the lead back but in preseason he had a setback which forced them to use him sparingly so he could last until the playoffs. Whe all saw how he did in the playoffs. This year he is 100% healthy and will get more carries than last year. I will be drafting him in my money league.
Addai's Adidas
Footballguy
They won the Superbowl last year. Why would they make radical changes?
Because Reggie Bush is healthier this year than he was last year.
Jayrod
Footballguy
A few players are gone, there are a few new players, some players (Bush) are healthier than last year, they play different teams & the best way to ensure that they don't repeat is to sit back and not try to improve.
saintfool
Dead sexy
i don't think anyone knows what thomas is capable of but it doesn't matter really. to speculate that he can't handle the rigors of 20+ carries a game for 16 games, because he hasn't been asked to do so, is silly. in the two years that he's been he has split time with deuce and reggie, mike bell and reggie, and now simply reggie. it should be no surprise that an undrafted FA plays behind a saints legend and their R1.2 playmaker. last year, i think it was payton who described mike bell's role as "closer" in the 4th quarter of games. it doesn't matter if he can or can't carry the load in the end. payton and loomis aren't using him like a true #1 nor are the paying him like one. he's an effective RB on a pass happy team. fwiw, i think it's funny to think that people have more faith in Reggie's ability to stay healthy than Pierre's this season.
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
Real trick here is the determine who is going to get the goal line carries. Last year, they had 19 carries inside the 5 - Mike Bell had 11 of these, Thomas 6, and Bush 2. Thomas scored 1 TD on those 6 carries, while Bush scored both times he toted the rock inside the opposition's 5.
So, who gets those extra carries now that Bell is gone?
So, who gets those extra carries now that Bell is gone?
saintfool
Dead sexy
see, i think this is where the real value comes in. i think opposing teams are going to really come after brees and take away the passing game. teams will be willing to take their chances against thomas/bush/betts instead of brees. payton and brees will have to run more to keep the pressure off and teams off balance. in fact, i think that teams will actually go after brees because he's the key to the everything. if the ground game can make teams pay then teams can't load up against brees.
Kwai Chang Caine
Footballguy
I have Thomas but with all the talk here about the value of Bush I'm tempted to offer the Bush owner Bradshaw even up.
LawFitz
Footballguy
I'm in the same boat. I'm considering offering the Reggie Bush owner Michael Bush. Selected MB over RB in our draft a few weeks ago and kind of regret it now.It's a tough call. I like Mike better than Reggie. But I like the Saints A LOT better than the Raiders. ETA: In terms of fantasy football! Go Raiduhs!!!
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karmarooster
Footballguy
Bell + Thomas + Bush + Hamilton = 424 carriesThomas 250 + Bush 175 = 425Who else is going to run the ball? Betts? I doubt he gets more than 50 carries on the season
SproutDaddy
Footballguy
He missed 2 games last year....1 was the last game of the regular season. In 2008 he didn't play in a few games due to being 3rd on the depth chart. In 2007 he was pretty much unknown and didn't see the field much until the end of the season. He has been limited in games, but he's only missed 2. What do you not get here?sho nuff said:
SproutDaddy
Footballguy
So you think Thomas will get 100 more carries than last year, and Bush will get more carries than Thomas had last year?You guys crack me up in here with your "expert analysis"! Stick to your day job.
karmarooster
Footballguy
shove it. i'm not an expert and i don't claim to be. why don't you lay down some numbers so i can ridicule them. please.the fact is, of the 4 running backs with significant carries on the roster, only 2 of them are still around. Bell and Hamilton combined for 200 carries. WHERE DO THEY GO? will they just not run the ball? doubtful. the running formula took them to the super bowl. will Betts have 200 carries? some as yet unsigned other RB? Will either Thomas or bush have more rushes than last year? what a stupid presumption...
SproutDaddy
Footballguy
Bend corners like I was a curve, I struck a nerve.........I don't come here to post #s. I just let you guys do that. I don't come here to ridicule people either. I'll let SSOG and Chase do that. I'm just constructively criticizing your predictions cause they're not logical. If you end up being right I'll eat my words. I doubt that comes to pass. I haven't missed a Saints game in 2 years. I don't see them increasing either of those guy's load by much......at least not as much as you think. But hey, what do I know? I'm just a fan that hasn't missed a single one of their games in 2 years. If you can't take criticism stay out. Or you can be a man and grow a pair. For the record I own both guys in multiple leagues. Thomas is my RB3 in both leagues I own him, and I consider him a solid #2. Bush is my RB3 in the other. Based on your #s, both should out perform my thinking. If Thomas performs as a #1, I'll eat the poop.shove it. i'm not an expert and i don't claim to be. why don't you lay down some numbers so i can ridicule them. please.the fact is, of the 4 running backs with significant carries on the roster, only 2 of them are still around. Bell and Hamilton combined for 200 carries. WHERE DO THEY GO? will they just not run the ball? doubtful. the running formula took them to the super bowl. will Betts have 200 carries? some as yet unsigned other RB? Will either Thomas or bush have more rushes than last year? what a stupid presumption...
karmarooster
Footballguy
an increase in carries for both of them should be expected.... agreed that 250/175 is likely the best case scenario, but it's not illogical. there have been windows over the past few years when both were used heavily for a short period of time, but health and circumstance have stood in the way for both Thomas and Bush.
a career year for either one, or both, shouldn't shock anyone. we've seen both have talent, and now they have a great opportunity. health is a funny thing.
a career year for either one, or both, shouldn't shock anyone. we've seen both have talent, and now they have a great opportunity. health is a funny thing.
You didn't strike a nerve -- you pissed him off. You're being a jerk. I appreciate your insights re: the Saints, but you don't need to be a jerk while you give them.
Kwai Chang Caine
Footballguy
After last night game does anyone with both Thomas and Bush have any idea who to start? I guess for PPR it's more likely to start Reggie but what about non-ppr?
Methinks I'm apt to pull my hair out picking between these two every week
Methinks I'm apt to pull my hair out picking between these two every week
NO is probably the best offense in the NFL, so there is lots of points to go around, but NO spreads the wealth around way too much. Bush was a good RB4 last year, may bump up to a good RB3 this year. I had to play Bush last year, and he gave me 2 decent weeks and 2 great weeks, so he filled his role very well, and I was fortunate he was hot when I needed him. If he falls to round 7, at that point I will take him and consider it a great value. At round 6, I think there will be players I need to pick to be starters on my team.
Balance
Footballguy
Lots of people taking these things a little too serious lately. Relax, no need to get upset. Quit being an ###.
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