Thoughts on Brandon Marshall (1 Viewer)

[The Dude]

Alright, local radio had a Yahoo fantasy guy on and he stated BM was 3rd on his WR list: 100-1400-14

And let's spare everyone the shots at Yahoo fantasy guys

So where do you have him ranked? The only guys I have him for sure behind is CJ and a Giants WR. Not saying he's 3rd best - but could be anywhere from 3rd to 10th

 

[FavreCo]

They will have to score points in that division. The big unknown is meathead at OC.

 

[Bishop]

I don't see him getting 100 catches this season. Forte and Bush will see a lot of carries, which will limit his targets.

However, I'd say he is a top 5 WR in PPR league behind C. Johnson, Fitz, Welker, and R. White.

 

[baconisgood]

No, and its not even close. 14 TDs? Possible- Braylon put up 16 one season but if you look at his career arc are you saying hes more likley to put up 1400/14 than Fitzgerald when Fitz has already put up 1,400 4 times and double digit TDs 4 times as well?

I can guess the logic- Marshall has all the physical traits of a great WR and his last year in Denver WITHOUT Cutler he put up 1100/10. If you put up his catch #s with Cutler with better y/c and add in a few TDs for both of them being at their peak and you are looking at a top 5 WR. I mean how can Marshall not do better than he did in Miami with crap as his QB?

This logic ignores two different things.

1. Catching TDs is a different (though related) skill set than being a great between the 20s receiver. Take Chad Johnson's career for example. A six time pro-bowler, broke 1300 yards 4 times, 1400 yards twice and had a 5 year stretch where his lowest # of receptions was 87 and he hit 10 TDs a total of ONCE in his career. Jimmy Smith had 9 1,000 yard campaigns (5 of them 1,200 yards +) and never even got to 9 TDs in a season. Wes Welker has broken 110 catches 4 times- 9 TDs is his high. Andre Johnson, a guy with all the tools like Marshall and led the league in receiving yards twice has never gotten to 10 TDs in a season (caveat he almost certainly would have in 2007 had he not been injured). Not every guy who demonstrates 100 catch 1,400 yard potential is a 10 + TD candidate. Even Andre Johnson would have needed 6 TDs in the 8 games he missed to hit 14 for the season and that is well over his rate as a 27, 28 and 29 year old.

2. Poor QB play prevents WRs from hitting their ceiling. Many receivers have their best fantasy seasons with borderline starters chucking at them. Shear volume is frequently more important once you get a somewhat competent QB. Lloyd/Marshall with Orton, Edwards with D.A., Steve Smith with Delhomme. AJ put up ~430 yards and 4 TDs with Rosenfells as his QB for the last 5 games of 2007(and his 5 games in 2008 with Sage aren't far off his career #s either).

A chance Marshall hits those numbers? Yes, but small. More likely than Fitz, Calvin, A.J., Jennings? No, not even close.

 

[bostonfred]

Am I the only one who has marshall in a tier way below welker, roddy, fitz, jennings, etc? He changed teams, to a team that likes to run and has a new offensive scheme coming in, in a cold weather outdoor city, with a mid tier qb who admittedly knows him but hasn't put up big numbers in quite a while, and if rumors are to be believed, may have some alcohol issues? That just seems like too many red flags to me.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

I love Marshall as a player, own him in most of my dynasty leagues, and will take him with a smile in any PPR redraft in which he's sitting there when I'm on the clock in the 3rd. That said, 1400 yards and 14 TDs seem way too high to me. The 100 catches might be a reasonable ceiling-type number, but I'd be shocked to see him over 1200 - 1250 yards or 10 TDs, even if he does approach 100 grabs.

So 100 - 1250 - 10 would be my "upside" projection, with a line like 90 - 1125 - 8 probably more likely. Still a good PPR WR1, but not likely to make a push at the top spot. The Bears aren't NE/NO/Detroit.

 

[Chazzhawk]

He has the talent to put up 110 + catches 1500 + yards and 12 + touchdowns his problem is between the ears. It is only a matter of time before he makes a reason to smack a woman, pull a gun on someone he thinks dissed him, or not show up to practice and sleep through team meetings.

 

[MAC_32]

I have him 5th - behind Calvin, Fitz, AJ, and Welker. Familiarity with QB, system, clear #1 target, incredibly high # of targets with Cutler before, unlike recent seasons - healthy off season, limits off field issues to off season, played better than surface stats indicate in 2011. Relative to the others in the top 12 - can't see ranking any above him unless you think Green or Julio goes nuts. Both of which are possible.

 

[David Yudkin]

I'm not sure where this is coming from. Marshall's best fantasy season was WR9 (0 ppr). That was when he played with Cutler before (2007). The following season, the Broncos passing attempts shot way up (to 620 attempts) . . . but Marshall's totals went down (WR12).

Sure, Cutler and Marshall are back together in CHI, a team that has run a lot more than the Broncos did (and a team that is unlikely to throw the ball 620 times). Also consider it is now a Mike Tice offense (and who knows how that will play in the current NFL).

Other factors include the Bears usually playing more of a tough defense / ground and pound old school football. Forte and Bush would be perfect for that strategy.

Add all of that into the mix and I don't see Marshall anywhere near the Top 3-5 (I would guess somewhere in the teens).

 

[az_prof]

No, and its not even close. 14 TDs? Possible- Braylon put up 16 one season but if you look at his career arc are you saying hes more likley to put up 1400/14 than Fitzgerald when Fitz has already put up 1,400 4 times and double digit TDs 4 times as well? I can guess the logic- Marshall has all the physical traits of a great WR and his last year in Denver WITHOUT Cutler he put up 1100/10. If you put up his catch #s with Cutler with better y/c and add in a few TDs for both of them being at their peak and you are looking at a top 5 WR. I mean how can Marshall not do better than he did in Miami with crap as his QB? This logic ignores two different things.1. Catching TDs is a different (though related) skill set than being a great between the 20s receiver. Take Chad Johnson's career for example. A six time pro-bowler, broke 1300 yards 4 times, 1400 yards twice and had a 5 year stretch where his lowest # of receptions was 87 and he hit 10 TDs a total of ONCE in his career. Jimmy Smith had 9 1,000 yard campaigns (5 of them 1,200 yards +) and never even got to 9 TDs in a season. Wes Welker has broken 110 catches 4 times- 9 TDs is his high. Andre Johnson, a guy with all the tools like Marshall and led the league in receiving yards twice has never gotten to 10 TDs in a season (caveat he almost certainly would have in 2007 had he not been injured). Not every guy who demonstrates 100 catch 1,400 yard potential is a 10 + TD candidate. Even Andre Johnson would have needed 6 TDs in the 8 games he missed to hit 14 for the season and that is well over his rate as a 27, 28 and 29 year old. 2. Poor QB play prevents WRs from hitting their ceiling. Many receivers have their best fantasy seasons with borderline starters chucking at them. Shear volume is frequently more important once you get a somewhat competent QB. Lloyd/Marshall with Orton, Edwards with D.A., Steve Smith with Delhomme. AJ put up ~430 yards and 4 TDs with Rosenfells as his QB for the last 5 games of 2007(and his 5 games in 2008 with Sage aren't far off his career #s either). A chance Marshall hits those numbers? Yes, but small. More likely than Fitz, Calvin, A.J., Jennings? No, not even close.

I would put him after Calvin and Fitz in PPR as the third best WR. He was 7th in PPR in 2009 and 5th in 2008.I think Jennings is a good but not great receiver and Rodgers spreads the ball around. This is the year the wheel falls off for AJ (already hurt). While it is true that Chicago is a cold weather city, it is also true that he won't be facing any top CBs--no more Revis island. And while Chicago likes to run, the Meathead at OC likes to pass. I really don't see Forte/Bush being the kind of RBs that will carry Chicago that far at this point in their careers. Chicago is going to have to pass more.TDs are difficult to predict and I am not convinced that the receiver is the main factor. QB and offensive system/coordinator are bigger factors. You can't catch TDs if the offense doesn't target WRs in the red zone.

 

[The Dude]

No, and its not even close. 14 TDs? Possible- Braylon put up 16 one season but if you look at his career arc are you saying hes more likley to put up 1400/14 than Fitzgerald when Fitz has already put up 1,400 4 times and double digit TDs 4 times as well?

I can guess the logic- Marshall has all the physical traits of a great WR and his last year in Denver WITHOUT Cutler he put up 1100/10. If you put up his catch #s with Cutler with better y/c and add in a few TDs for both of them being at their peak and you are looking at a top 5 WR. I mean how can Marshall not do better than he did in Miami with crap as his QB?

This logic ignores two different things.

1. Catching TDs is a different (though related) skill set than being a great between the 20s receiver. Take Chad Johnson's career for example. A six time pro-bowler, broke 1300 yards 4 times, 1400 yards twice and had a 5 year stretch where his lowest # of receptions was 87 and he hit 10 TDs a total of ONCE in his career. Jimmy Smith had 9 1,000 yard campaigns (5 of them 1,200 yards +) and never even got to 9 TDs in a season. Wes Welker has broken 110 catches 4 times- 9 TDs is his high. Andre Johnson, a guy with all the tools like Marshall and led the league in receiving yards twice has never gotten to 10 TDs in a season (caveat he almost certainly would have in 2007 had he not been injured). Not every guy who demonstrates 100 catch 1,400 yard potential is a 10 + TD candidate. Even Andre Johnson would have needed 6 TDs in the 8 games he missed to hit 14 for the season and that is well over his rate as a 27, 28 and 29 year old.

2. Poor QB play prevents WRs from hitting their ceiling. Many receivers have their best fantasy seasons with borderline starters chucking at them. Shear volume is frequently more important once you get a somewhat competent QB. Lloyd/Marshall with Orton, Edwards with D.A., Steve Smith with Delhomme. AJ put up ~430 yards and 4 TDs with Rosenfells as his QB for the last 5 games of 2007(and his 5 games in 2008 with Sage aren't far off his career #s either).

A chance Marshall hits those numbers? Yes, but small. More likely than Fitz, Calvin, A.J., Jennings? No, not even close.

I would put him after Calvin and Fitz in PPR as the third best WR. He was 7th in PPR in 2009 and 5th in 2008.I think Jennings is a good but not great receiver and Rodgers spreads the ball around. This is the year the wheel falls off for AJ (already hurt).

While it is true that Chicago is a cold weather city, it is also true that he won't be facing any top CBs--no more Revis island. And while Chicago likes to run, the Meathead at OC likes to pass. I really don't see Forte/Bush being the kind of RBs that will carry Chicago that far at this point in their careers. Chicago is going to have to pass more.

TDs are difficult to predict and I am not convinced that the receiver is the main factor. QB and offensive system/coordinator are bigger factors. You can't catch TDs if the offense doesn't target WRs in the red zone.

I'm hearing the "Brandon Ratio"

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

I'm not sure where this is coming from. Marshall's best fantasy season was WR9 (0 ppr). That was when he played with Cutler before (2007). The following season, the Broncos passing attempts shot way up (to 620 attempts) . . . but Marshall's totals went down (WR12).Add all of that into the mix and I don't see Marshall anywhere near the Top 3-5 (I would guess somewhere in the teens).

Not sure why someone would choose to use non-PPR as an example either in the year 2012. And when everyone knows Marshall's upside lies in the PPR format.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

I'm not sure where this is coming from. Marshall's best fantasy season was WR9 (0 ppr). That was when he played with Cutler before (2007). The following season, the Broncos passing attempts shot way up (to 620 attempts) . . . but Marshall's totals went down (WR12).Sure, Cutler and Marshall are back together in CHI, a team that has run a lot more than the Broncos did (and a team that is unlikely to throw the ball 620 times). Also consider it is now a Mike Tice offense (and who knows how that will play in the current NFL).Other factors include the Bears usually playing more of a tough defense / ground and pound old school football. Forte and Bush would be perfect for that strategy.Add all of that into the mix and I don't see Marshall anywhere near the Top 3-5 (I would guess somewhere in the teens).

I think a lot of the disconnect comes from PPR vs. non-PPR. Marshall is a guy whose value differs quite a bit in the two systems. If I had to make a prop bet on a WR leading the NFL in TDs or yardage, I'm not going near Marshall. If I had to make the same bet for catches, he's in the argument right after Wes Welker. Pretty similar to Anquan Boldin in his prime, Marshall is likely under-rated in PPR and over-rated in non-PPR.

 

[baconisgood]

I'm not sure where this is coming from. Marshall's best fantasy season was WR9 (0 ppr). That was when he played with Cutler before (2007). The following season, the Broncos passing attempts shot way up (to 620 attempts) . . . but Marshall's totals went down (WR12).Sure, Cutler and Marshall are back together in CHI, a team that has run a lot more than the Broncos did (and a team that is unlikely to throw the ball 620 times). Also consider it is now a Mike Tice offense (and who knows how that will play in the current NFL).Other factors include the Bears usually playing more of a tough defense / ground and pound old school football. Forte and Bush would be perfect for that strategy.Add all of that into the mix and I don't see Marshall anywhere near the Top 3-5 (I would guess somewhere in the teens).

While I agree with your conclusion your reasoning doesn't hold up. First Marshall's production didn't dip between 2007 and 2008 other than the fact that he missed a game (his production was actually higher in both receptions and yards per game and he was 1 TD shy of matching). Secondly, and most importantly, totals for primary targets (that are a pro bowl caliber) don't depend on having 600+ attempts as long as they are above a baseline and aren't competing with numerous other targets. Easy examples include Reggie Wayne having his career season in 2007 with Manning attempting fewer passes that season (515) than he did in '06, '08-'10, and Steve Smiths beastly 2005 and 2008 campaigns coming on 100 fewer attempts than CAR had in 2006 or 2007. Long story short the primary concern in this situation is if Marshall expects to be the focal point of the passing game or if he will be part of a receiving corps that spreads it around before you worry if they will be chucking the ball 600 times.

 

[Sylira21]

To quote some stats I read the other day, Marshall is not a scorer.

His two big years with Cutler, Marshall caught 6 of 16 passes thrown to him inside the 10.

Last year with the Dolphins he had 10 targets inside the 10, and caught NONE of them.

The two big years with Cutler, 2007-2008, Cutler threw 43 TDs. Marshall caught only 13 of them.

If the Bears were suddenly going to explode into a huge passing team, why did they wait to get rid of Mike Martz to transform themselves?

The Bears wil be a mixed run/pass tam again. Jay Cutler is not going to throw 600 passes. Marshall is not a good red zone receiver, never has been. He won't get Roddy White-type target numbers.

How is this adding up to a top-three receiver?

I think Marshall is far more likely to perform similarly to last year - 80 REC, 1200 Yds, 6 TDs.

 

[MAC_32]

I'm not sure where this is coming from. Marshall's best fantasy season was WR9 (0 ppr). That was when he played with Cutler before (2007). The following season, the Broncos passing attempts shot way up (to 620 attempts) . . . but Marshall's totals went down (WR12).Sure, Cutler and Marshall are back together in CHI, a team that has run a lot more than the Broncos did (and a team that is unlikely to throw the ball 620 times). Also consider it is now a Mike Tice offense (and who knows how that will play in the current NFL).Other factors include the Bears usually playing more of a tough defense / ground and pound old school football. Forte and Bush would be perfect for that strategy.Add all of that into the mix and I don't see Marshall anywhere near the Top 3-5 (I would guess somewhere in the teens).

He battled injuries most off seasons in Denver, first time since he became a starter that he's both healthy and on a talented offense.

 

[MAC_32]

To quote some stats I read the other day, Marshall is not a scorer.His two big years with Cutler, Marshall caught 6 of 16 passes thrown to him inside the 10.Last year with the Dolphins he had 10 targets inside the 10, and caught NONE of them.The two big years with Cutler, 2007-2008, Cutler threw 43 TDs. Marshall caught only 13 of them.If the Bears were suddenly going to explode into a huge passing team, why did they wait to get rid of Mike Martz to transform themselves?The Bears wil be a mixed run/pass tam again. Jay Cutler is not going to throw 600 passes. Marshall is not a good red zone receiver, never has been. He won't get Roddy White-type target numbers.How is this adding up to a top-three receiver? I think Marshall is far more likely to perform similarly to last year - 80 REC, 1200 Yds, 6 TDs.

To be fair, I'm not sure anyone would have caught some of those inside the 10 passes Marshall received last year. Didn't watch much of the Fins, but the couple times I did the throws he got in the red zone were down right ugly.

 

[Mystery Achiever]

FWIW, I just looked up his rankings in a PPR league.

He ranked 9th in 2007,7th in 2008 & 2009, 20th in 2010, 11th in 2011.

 

[Sweet Love]

Am I the only one who has marshall in a tier way below welker, roddy, fitz, jennings, etc? He changed teams, to a team that likes to run and has a new offensive scheme coming in, in a cold weather outdoor city, with a mid tier qb who admittedly knows him but hasn't put up big numbers in quite a while, and if rumors are to be believed, may have some alcohol issues? That just seems like too many red flags to me.

Here are my thoughts on that:1) He returns to the QB who locked on him to the tune of 100+ receptions in three consecutive years2) He did this in a cold weather city3) There really is little competition for receptions in Chicago when you think about it...they are littered with WR3 types and no TE4) He already ha problems in Denver and that did not stop him5) With Henne in miami in 2010, he had 86 receptions in his first year on a new team, only playing 14 games...give him 16 and he hits 1006) Jennings? He does get more TDs, but his best reception year (80) is worse than EVERY year Marshall had as a starter minus his rookie yearIn the end, he is a bit of a wildcard, but I see no reason he does not hit 90/1200. TDs are always a guess (not a projection), but I see 5 as a floor, and more likely in the 7-8 range. If you are playing PPR, I see him as someone that could hit that WR3 spot if things work out...if they don't, I cannot imagine him slipping by WR8 and that is why I like him...his floor is less than non-reception guys like Jennings and D-Jax.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

Nice stuff sweet luv.

 

[baconisgood]

Am I the only one who has marshall in a tier way below welker, roddy, fitz, jennings, etc? He changed teams, to a team that likes to run and has a new offensive scheme coming in, in a cold weather outdoor city, with a mid tier qb who admittedly knows him but hasn't put up big numbers in quite a while, and if rumors are to be believed, may have some alcohol issues? That just seems like too many red flags to me.

Here are my thoughts on that:1) He returns to the QB who locked on him to the tune of 100+ receptions in three consecutive years2) He did this in a cold weather city3) There really is little competition for receptions in Chicago when you think about it...they are littered with WR3 types and no TE4) He already ha problems in Denver and that did not stop him5) With Henne in miami in 2010, he had 86 receptions in his first year on a new team, only playing 14 games...give him 16 and he hits 1006) Jennings? He does get more TDs, but his best reception year (80) is worse than EVERY year Marshall had as a starter minus his rookie yearIn the end, he is a bit of a wildcard, but I see no reason he does not hit 90/1200. TDs are always a guess (not a projection), but I see 5 as a floor, and more likely in the 7-8 range. If you are playing PPR, I see him as someone that could hit that WR3 spot if things work out...if they don't, I cannot imagine him slipping by WR8 and that is why I like him...his floor is less than non-reception guys like Jennings and D-Jax.

1. Actually 2 years, Orton was QB the third year, but point taken.2. Fine3. There was little competition in Denver/MIA those years and he averaged over those seasons 6.7 TDs a year (prorated for games lost). 4. Fine5. Fine6. Fewer receptions but a lot more TDs and yards/reception which evens up the score very easily and Jennings doesn't have some of the additional issues Marshall has. Marshall will also be dependent on Cutler's health. Matt Flynn had two big games in his two career starts with GB while Backups in Chicago have struggled to muster any kind of offense while Cutler has been out. GB looks to be better at keeping themselves in the game with backup QBs.

 

[fightingillini]

Am I the only one who has marshall in a tier way below welker, roddy, fitz, jennings, etc? He changed teams, to a team that likes to run and has a new offensive scheme coming in, in a cold weather outdoor city, with a mid tier qb who admittedly knows him but hasn't put up big numbers in quite a while, and if rumors are to be believed, may have some alcohol issues? That just seems like too many red flags to me.

Here are my thoughts on that:1) He returns to the QB who locked on him to the tune of 100+ receptions in three consecutive years2) He did this in a cold weather city3) There really is little competition for receptions in Chicago when you think about it...they are littered with WR3 types and no TE4) He already ha problems in Denver and that did not stop him5) With Henne in miami in 2010, he had 86 receptions in his first year on a new team, only playing 14 games...give him 16 and he hits 1006) Jennings? He does get more TDs, but his best reception year (80) is worse than EVERY year Marshall had as a starter minus his rookie yearIn the end, he is a bit of a wildcard, but I see no reason he does not hit 90/1200. TDs are always a guess (not a projection), but I see 5 as a floor, and more likely in the 7-8 range. If you are playing PPR, I see him as someone that could hit that WR3 spot if things work out...if they don't, I cannot imagine him slipping by WR8 and that is why I like him...his floor is less than non-reception guys like Jennings and D-Jax.

I think Sweet Love means that WR5 is his ceiling.Marshall has some risks that we all know about, but he's a lock for 85+ receptions, 1100+ yards, and likely 7 TDs. My projection for him is 96/1225/7. Could he be a top 3WR? Yes, my rankings have him behind Calvin, Fitzgerald, AJ, Jennings, and Welker so I have him at WR6..... but my projections have WR2 - WR10 pretty bunched together.

 

[NCPanthersFan]

12 Team Flex PPR. A couple of mocks daily at the 5th spot. Been grabbing Marshall in the 3rd fairly regularly. I have even seen him fall to the 4th. People tend to have strong feelings about the guy one way or another. Expecting 85 receptions & 1,100 yards is very reasonable out of Marshall IMHO. I think the TD floor is 5-6 but I am settling on 8. This is with a ground & pound philosophy. Don't see why they would have signed Bush otherwise. They knew Forte was coming back. Either way he should a ton of targets.

That kind of situation, in the 3rd round, seems pretty sweet to me.

 

[Sweet Love]

Am I the only one who has marshall in a tier way below welker, roddy, fitz, jennings, etc? He changed teams, to a team that likes to run and has a new offensive scheme coming in, in a cold weather outdoor city, with a mid tier qb who admittedly knows him but hasn't put up big numbers in quite a while, and if rumors are to be believed, may have some alcohol issues? That just seems like too many red flags to me.

Here are my thoughts on that:1) He returns to the QB who locked on him to the tune of 100+ receptions in three consecutive years2) He did this in a cold weather city3) There really is little competition for receptions in Chicago when you think about it...they are littered with WR3 types and no TE4) He already ha problems in Denver and that did not stop him5) With Henne in miami in 2010, he had 86 receptions in his first year on a new team, only playing 14 games...give him 16 and he hits 1006) Jennings? He does get more TDs, but his best reception year (80) is worse than EVERY year Marshall had as a starter minus his rookie yearIn the end, he is a bit of a wildcard, but I see no reason he does not hit 90/1200. TDs are always a guess (not a projection), but I see 5 as a floor, and more likely in the 7-8 range. If you are playing PPR, I see him as someone that could hit that WR3 spot if things work out...if they don't, I cannot imagine him slipping by WR8 and that is why I like him...his floor is less than non-reception guys like Jennings and D-Jax.

1. Actually 2 years, Orton was QB the third year, but point taken.2. Fine3. There was little competition in Denver/MIA those years and he averaged over those seasons 6.7 TDs a year (prorated for games lost). 4. Fine5. Fine6. Fewer receptions but a lot more TDs and yards/reception which evens up the score very easily and Jennings doesn't have some of the additional issues Marshall has. Marshall will also be dependent on Cutler's health. Matt Flynn had two big games in his two career starts with GB while Backups in Chicago have struggled to muster any kind of offense while Cutler has been out. GB looks to be better at keeping themselves in the game with backup QBs.

You are dead right about the GB thing with the backups and the fact that Chicago has been a disaster without Cutler...with that said, GB does not have Flynn anymore...he shockingly beat out Brohm his rookie year and probably has been the best backup in the sport the past couple of years. Now they have Graham Harrell and from what I have heard, he is struggling some. The Bears seem to have come to terms with their inefficiency and now have McCown and Campbell as their backups (both better than Harrell). Frankly, I would be a bit worried if I owned a GB position player knowing they have nothing behind Rodgers.

 

[Chazzhawk]

Am I the only one who has marshall in a tier way below welker, roddy, fitz, jennings, etc? He changed teams, to a team that likes to run and has a new offensive scheme coming in, in a cold weather outdoor city, with a mid tier qb who admittedly knows him but hasn't put up big numbers in quite a while, and if rumors are to be believed, may have some alcohol issues? That just seems like too many red flags to me.

Here are my thoughts on that:

1) He returns to the QB who locked on him to the tune of 100+ receptions in three consecutive years

2) He did this in a cold weather city

3) There really is little competition for receptions in Chicago when you think about it...they are littered with WR3 types and no TE

4) He already ha problems in Denver and that did not stop him

5) With Henne in miami in 2010, he had 86 receptions in his first year on a new team, only playing 14 games...give him 16 and he hits 100

6) Jennings? He does get more TDs, but his best reception year (80) is worse than EVERY year Marshall had as a starter minus his rookie year

In the end, he is a bit of a wildcard, but I see no reason he does not hit 90/1200. TDs are always a guess (not a projection), but I see 5 as a floor, and more likely in the 7-8 range. If you are playing PPR, I see him as someone that could hit that WR3 spot if things work out...if they don't, I cannot imagine him slipping by WR8 and that is why I like him...his floor is less than non-reception guys like Jennings and D-Jax.

1. Actually 2 years, Orton was QB the third year, but point taken.

2. Fine

3. There was little competition in Denver/MIA those years and he averaged over those seasons 6.7 TDs a year (prorated for games lost).

4. Fine

5. Fine

6. Fewer receptions but a lot more TDs and yards/reception which evens up the score very easily and Jennings doesn't have some of the additional issues Marshall has.

Marshall will also be dependent on Cutler's health. Matt Flynn had two big games in his two career starts with GB while Backups in Chicago have struggled to muster any kind of offense while Cutler has been out. GB looks to be better at keeping themselves in the game with backup QBs.

I have no problem with what you are saying except this, until last year Cutler had missed one game due to injury in his career. Lets not act like he is injury prone.

 

[David Yudkin]

If we use Dodds' projections and 1 PPR, Marshall projects at WR14. If people want to say that Dodds is way off predicting a 84-1100-7 season, that's up to them. I might be persuaded that Marshall could hit 90 receptions, but then again I think the 7 TD might be a smidge high so it would be a wash.

His ADP for PPR leagues is WR8 and 29th overall. That seems a little too rich for my blood. The bandwidth from near the top 10 to the top 20 is pretty tight, as there are a lot of receivers that might fall pretty close projection wise. So I would probably explore who else would be available at other positions before I jumped in at the early side of the WR run. No sense grabbing the first guy when you could get a couple similar guys a round or two later.

 

[baconisgood]

Am I the only one who has marshall in a tier way below welker, roddy, fitz, jennings, etc? He changed teams, to a team that likes to run and has a new offensive scheme coming in, in a cold weather outdoor city, with a mid tier qb who admittedly knows him but hasn't put up big numbers in quite a while, and if rumors are to be believed, may have some alcohol issues? That just seems like too many red flags to me.

Here are my thoughts on that:

1) He returns to the QB who locked on him to the tune of 100+ receptions in three consecutive years

2) He did this in a cold weather city

3) There really is little competition for receptions in Chicago when you think about it...they are littered with WR3 types and no TE

4) He already ha problems in Denver and that did not stop him

5) With Henne in miami in 2010, he had 86 receptions in his first year on a new team, only playing 14 games...give him 16 and he hits 100

6) Jennings? He does get more TDs, but his best reception year (80) is worse than EVERY year Marshall had as a starter minus his rookie year

In the end, he is a bit of a wildcard, but I see no reason he does not hit 90/1200. TDs are always a guess (not a projection), but I see 5 as a floor, and more likely in the 7-8 range. If you are playing PPR, I see him as someone that could hit that WR3 spot if things work out...if they don't, I cannot imagine him slipping by WR8 and that is why I like him...his floor is less than non-reception guys like Jennings and D-Jax.

1. Actually 2 years, Orton was QB the third year, but point taken.

2. Fine

3. There was little competition in Denver/MIA those years and he averaged over those seasons 6.7 TDs a year (prorated for games lost).

4. Fine

5. Fine

6. Fewer receptions but a lot more TDs and yards/reception which evens up the score very easily and Jennings doesn't have some of the additional issues Marshall has.

Marshall will also be dependent on Cutler's health. Matt Flynn had two big games in his two career starts with GB while Backups in Chicago have struggled to muster any kind of offense while Cutler has been out. GB looks to be better at keeping themselves in the game with backup QBs.

I have no problem with what you are saying except this, until last year Cutler had missed one game due to injury in his career. Lets not act like he is injury prone.

At the point when i said that I was comparing 2 WRs who project very closely in a lot of people's eyes (I had also written a few hundred words about Marshall in this thread as well). Small things like this are the only way I can differentiate between guys that I have ranked side by side like Jennings/Marshall. I'm not taking Anquan Boldin over Marshall because Flacco is less of an injury risk than Cutler, I'm taking a guy that I perceive to be very even otherwise.

 

[David Yudkin]

I have no problem with what you are saying except this, until last year Cutler had missed one game due to injury in his career. Lets not act like he is injury prone.

I would not say Cutler is injury prone, but I would say the CHI OL could make him more susceptible to injury. Cutler took a beating before he got hurt last year, and IIRC the Bears did not make major changes to upgrade the OL. Some will say the Martz system was the culprit there, but not many people realize that historically speaking QBs in the Tice system got sacked at the same rate as QBs got sacked in Martz offenses.Maybe the Bears can do a better job protecting the QB and give Cutler more time to throw the football. But that will have to happen consistently if folks think both Cutler and Marshall will having greater than expected years.

 

[Manster]

good points being made here.

The things I keep coming back too:

Cutler loves to throw to Marshall, and he's instantly the best reciever on the team

Marshall still put up decent numbers in Miami with QB's much less talented than Cutler

Marshall is a head case and the O-line in da windy city aint very good

Top 3? Maybe, its possible i guess. Realistically, barring injury to Cut or himself, I'd say inside the top 10 is VERY possible. This will be an interesting situation to monitor.

 

[baconisgood]

If we use Dodds' projections and 1 PPR, Marshall projects at WR14. If people want to say that Dodds is way off predicting a 84-1100-7 season, that's up to them. I might be persuaded that Marshall could hit 90 receptions, but then again I think the 7 TD might be a smidge high so it would be a wash.

His ADP for PPR leagues is WR8 and 29th overall. That seems a little too rich for my blood. The bandwidth from near the top 10 to the top 20 is pretty tight, as there are a lot of receivers that might fall pretty close projection wise. So I would probably explore who else would be available at other positions before I jumped in at the early side of the WR run. No sense grabbing the first guy when you could get a couple similar guys a round or two later.

Jeez, it seems like I'm right in the middle of this debate. I think that those rating him top 5 are to high but these posts still make no sense to me. To the bolded since 1980 Marshall is the 2nd youngest receiver to hit 100 receptions. He is also one of 7 guys to have at least 3 100 catch seasons. The rest of the list goes Harrison, Rice, Welker, AJ, Marshall, Herman Moore, Wayne- as far as that peer group goes seasons 27-29 were extremely good to these guys. Everyone of them was a pro-bowler at least twice in those three years, the worst fantasy season any of them put up was Moore's 82/983/5 as a 29 year old (15 games) or Welker's coming off an ACL season at 29.Even if you want to include players with 2 100 catch seasons the trend is extremely strong. Boldin was very productive 27-29 on a per game basis, and Fitz, Holt, Sterling Sharp and Jimmy Smith and Roddy White were all great for that stretch. Cris Carter was great from 28 on, and Rod Smith was pretty good (3 1,000 yard seasons) during that stretch.

Basically ONLY Randy Moss didn't dominate from 27-29 for players who ended up with 2+ seasons of 100 catches or more.

Given his age and QB I don't know why you project a guy like Marshall to basically tie the worst season of his career. Hes already done it (100 receptions) with 2 QBs and was on pace for 98 over a full slate with a 3rd (2 of whom are backups shortly thereafter). And even last season when he caught *only* 81 he still put up well above his average y/c that season. So projecting him in some weird middle ground of 84 for 13 y/c seems very hedgy and lazy.

 

[msommer]

3rd WR is too high. 10th, maybe. I think Brandon Marshall will do more for Jay Cutler's ranking than the reverse - if the CHI OL can keep Jay protected.

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

Why would we need to use someone else's projections for Marshall??

We've got 2 years of statistics of Cutler-Marshall. Never below 100 catches. Never under 1200 yards [1325 yards in season he played 16 games]. Never under 6 TD's.

Marshall caught 100+ on 467 Cutler pass attempts already in 2007 (29.19 pass att/game). Coincidentally enough, that is 2.5 pass attempts/game less than he's averaged in Chicago with nothing WR's. (31.73).

-----------------

Please just stop this whole Bears smash mouth football nonsense. It's not that defense anymore. Let it go. It wasn't that D last year. It's not gonna be that another year older.

 

[David Yudkin]

If we use Dodds' projections and 1 PPR, Marshall projects at WR14. If people want to say that Dodds is way off predicting a 84-1100-7 season, that's up to them. I might be persuaded that Marshall could hit 90 receptions, but then again I think the 7 TD might be a smidge high so it would be a wash.

His ADP for PPR leagues is WR8 and 29th overall. That seems a little too rich for my blood. The bandwidth from near the top 10 to the top 20 is pretty tight, as there are a lot of receivers that might fall pretty close projection wise. So I would probably explore who else would be available at other positions before I jumped in at the early side of the WR run. No sense grabbing the first guy when you could get a couple similar guys a round or two later.

Jeez, it seems like I'm right in the middle of this debate. I think that those rating him top 5 are to high but these posts still make no sense to me. To the bolded since 1980 Marshall is the 2nd youngest receiver to hit 100 receptions. He is also one of 7 guys to have at least 3 100 catch seasons. The rest of the list goes Harrison, Rice, Welker, AJ, Marshall, Herman Moore, Wayne- as far as that peer group goes seasons 27-29 were extremely good to these guys. Everyone of them was a pro-bowler at least twice in those three years, the worst fantasy season any of them put up was Moore's 82/983/5 as a 29 year old (15 games) or Welker's coming off an ACL season at 29.Even if you want to include players with 2 100 catch seasons the trend is extremely strong. Boldin was very productive 27-29 on a per game basis, and Fitz, Holt, Sterling Sharp and Jimmy Smith and Roddy White were all great for that stretch. Cris Carter was great from 28 on, and Rod Smith was pretty good (3 1,000 yard seasons) during that stretch.

Basically ONLY Randy Moss didn't dominate from 27-29 for players who ended up with 2+ seasons of 100 catches or more.

Given his age and QB I don't know why you project a guy like Marshall to basically tie the worst season of his career. Hes already done it (100 receptions) with 2 QBs and was on pace for 98 over a full slate with a 3rd (2 of whom are backups shortly thereafter). And even last season when he caught *only* 81 he still put up well above his average y/c that season. So projecting him in some weird middle ground of 84 for 13 y/c seems very hedgy and lazy.

Dodds has Marshall projected at roughly an average of the past two years. I don't see how that is unreasonable. He had a 4 year stretch of 13.0, 12.2, 11.1, and 11.8. Projecting him at 1 13.0 ypc also seems reasonable to me.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Dodds has Marshall projected at roughly an average of the past two years. I don't see how that is unreasonable. He had a 4 year stretch of 13.0, 12.2, 11.1, and 11.8. Projecting him at 1 13.0 ypc also seems reasonable to me.

It's definitely not absurd, but I would argue that Marshall's prior numbers with Cutler himself are more relevant when projecting him for 2012 than are the numbers he put up with the garbage at QB in Miami the past two years.

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

If we use Dodds' projections and 1 PPR, Marshall projects at WR14. If people want to say that Dodds is way off predicting a 84-1100-7 season, that's up to them. I might be persuaded that Marshall could hit 90 receptions, but then again I think the 7 TD might be a smidge high so it would be a wash.

His ADP for PPR leagues is WR8 and 29th overall. That seems a little too rich for my blood. The bandwidth from near the top 10 to the top 20 is pretty tight, as there are a lot of receivers that might fall pretty close projection wise. So I would probably explore who else would be available at other positions before I jumped in at the early side of the WR run. No sense grabbing the first guy when you could get a couple similar guys a round or two later.

Jeez, it seems like I'm right in the middle of this debate. I think that those rating him top 5 are to high but these posts still make no sense to me. To the bolded since 1980 Marshall is the 2nd youngest receiver to hit 100 receptions. He is also one of 7 guys to have at least 3 100 catch seasons. The rest of the list goes Harrison, Rice, Welker, AJ, Marshall, Herman Moore, Wayne- as far as that peer group goes seasons 27-29 were extremely good to these guys. Everyone of them was a pro-bowler at least twice in those three years, the worst fantasy season any of them put up was Moore's 82/983/5 as a 29 year old (15 games) or Welker's coming off an ACL season at 29.Even if you want to include players with 2 100 catch seasons the trend is extremely strong. Boldin was very productive 27-29 on a per game basis, and Fitz, Holt, Sterling Sharp and Jimmy Smith and Roddy White were all great for that stretch. Cris Carter was great from 28 on, and Rod Smith was pretty good (3 1,000 yard seasons) during that stretch.

Basically ONLY Randy Moss didn't dominate from 27-29 for players who ended up with 2+ seasons of 100 catches or more.

Given his age and QB I don't know why you project a guy like Marshall to basically tie the worst season of his career. Hes already done it (100 receptions) with 2 QBs and was on pace for 98 over a full slate with a 3rd (2 of whom are backups shortly thereafter). And even last season when he caught *only* 81 he still put up well above his average y/c that season. So projecting him in some weird middle ground of 84 for 13 y/c seems very hedgy and lazy.

Dodds has Marshall projected at roughly an average of the past two years. I don't see how that is unreasonable.

Again, why should anyone use his projection? With inferior QB's. Not named Jay Cutler. With whom we already have 2 years of statistics.

 

[bostonfred]

Here are my thoughts on that:1) He returns to the QB who locked on him to the tune of 100+ receptions in three consecutive years2) He did this in a cold weather city3) There really is little competition for receptions in Chicago when you think about it...they are littered with WR3 types and no TE4) He already ha problems in Denver and that did not stop him5) With Henne in miami in 2010, he had 86 receptions in his first year on a new team, only playing 14 games...give him 16 and he hits 1006) Jennings? He does get more TDs, but his best reception year (80) is worse than EVERY year Marshall had as a starter minus his rookie year

I started writing about all of these, but the big one for me is #4. Denver dumped him cheap. Miami dumped him cheaper. There's a reason. I don't want to deal with headaches that dont show up on any injury report, and that significantly devalues him to me. But it seems like im in the minority on this, so I will look closer.

 

[Sweet Love]

If we use Dodds' projections and 1 PPR, Marshall projects at WR14. If people want to say that Dodds is way off predicting a 84-1100-7 season, that's up to them. I might be persuaded that Marshall could hit 90 receptions, but then again I think the 7 TD might be a smidge high so it would be a wash.

His ADP for PPR leagues is WR8 and 29th overall. That seems a little too rich for my blood. The bandwidth from near the top 10 to the top 20 is pretty tight, as there are a lot of receivers that might fall pretty close projection wise. So I would probably explore who else would be available at other positions before I jumped in at the early side of the WR run. No sense grabbing the first guy when you could get a couple similar guys a round or two later.

Jeez, it seems like I'm right in the middle of this debate. I think that those rating him top 5 are to high but these posts still make no sense to me. To the bolded since 1980 Marshall is the 2nd youngest receiver to hit 100 receptions. He is also one of 7 guys to have at least 3 100 catch seasons. The rest of the list goes Harrison, Rice, Welker, AJ, Marshall, Herman Moore, Wayne- as far as that peer group goes seasons 27-29 were extremely good to these guys. Everyone of them was a pro-bowler at least twice in those three years, the worst fantasy season any of them put up was Moore's 82/983/5 as a 29 year old (15 games) or Welker's coming off an ACL season at 29.Even if you want to include players with 2 100 catch seasons the trend is extremely strong. Boldin was very productive 27-29 on a per game basis, and Fitz, Holt, Sterling Sharp and Jimmy Smith and Roddy White were all great for that stretch. Cris Carter was great from 28 on, and Rod Smith was pretty good (3 1,000 yard seasons) during that stretch.

Basically ONLY Randy Moss didn't dominate from 27-29 for players who ended up with 2+ seasons of 100 catches or more.

Given his age and QB I don't know why you project a guy like Marshall to basically tie the worst season of his career. Hes already done it (100 receptions) with 2 QBs and was on pace for 98 over a full slate with a 3rd (2 of whom are backups shortly thereafter). And even last season when he caught *only* 81 he still put up well above his average y/c that season. So projecting him in some weird middle ground of 84 for 13 y/c seems very hedgy and lazy.

Dodds has Marshall projected at roughly an average of the past two years. I don't see how that is unreasonable. He had a 4 year stretch of 13.0, 12.2, 11.1, and 11.8. Projecting him at 1 13.0 ypc also seems reasonable to me.

Yes, but you are ignoring the fact that he is (1) going to a better team, with a better QB, (2) the Dodds averages are season-based not game based (and he would have hit 100 receptions in 2010 if not missing 2 games, (3) he is reuniting with a QB who gave him top seasons. Also, in his projections he has Wallace at #3 (in non-PPR) and Marshall at #18...if you include PPR, you mentioned that Marshall jumps to 14, but he is only about 11 total points lower than Wallace, and he only projects Wallace with 9 fewer catches...my guess is that after Fitz and CJ, this whole thing is a log jam...but when you have that many close people and are playing PPR, I would take the guy I know could catch 80 passes in his sleep versus the guy who has never done so (or just cleared that mark once or twice in their career). So...I don't see an issue with Marshall at #3 at all...you won't have to take him there, but if he is staring at me at WR8, I would have no regrets biting on him.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

I'm not sure where this is coming from. Marshall's best fantasy season was WR9 (0 ppr). That was when he played with Cutler before (2007). The following season, the Broncos passing attempts shot way up (to 620 attempts) . . . but Marshall's totals went down (WR12).Sure, Cutler and Marshall are back together in CHI, a team that has run a lot more than the Broncos did (and a team that is unlikely to throw the ball 620 times). Also consider it is now a Mike Tice offense (and who knows how that will play in the current NFL).Other factors include the Bears usually playing more of a tough defense / ground and pound old school football. Forte and Bush would be perfect for that strategy.Add all of that into the mix and I don't see Marshall anywhere near the Top 3-5 (I would guess somewhere in the teens).

David and I have had some fun discussions regarding the Bears O this offseason.1) The Bears have ran the ball often in the past because it was the smart thing to do. Horrible WR weapons, poor pass blocking OL, Matt Forte is a very good RB, better run blocking OL. 2) You're posting #'s Cutler/Marshall put up in their 2nd/3rd seasons in the NFL at ages: 23/24 for Marshall and 24/25 for Cutler. Easy to say that most players improve after their 3rd season in the NFL. Now Cutler and Marshall are in the prime of their careers.3) Now with the way rules are being bent in favor of passing offenses an increase would be likely.4) Marshall won't be facing many great CB's in his favorable schedule: Tramon Williams(GB,twice), Antoine Winfield(Min,twice), Chris Houston(DET,twice), Kevin Thomas(IND), Courtland Finnegan(STL), Claiborne(DAL), Mathis(JAX), Gamble(CAR), McCourty(TEN), Joseph(HOU), Rogers(SF), Sherman(SEA), Peterson(ARI).5) Injury concerns with Cutler is a little drawn out. Last year was the first time he's missed significant time, that was due to breaking his thumb tackling an interception return. Any WR will be hurt if the starter goes down. I'd argue Chicago has one of the better backups with Jason Campbell...I see that as helping Marshall's value.6) OL is improved. Over Jay Cutler's last 5 starts in Chicago, he was sacked only 5 times. Chicago was also 5-0 during that stretch. Now add in first pick Gabe Carimi who's slimmed down and looked good in camp at RT. I'd say they got better.

 

[az_prof]

If we use Dodds' projections and 1 PPR, Marshall projects at WR14. If people want to say that Dodds is way off predicting a 84-1100-7 season, that's up to them. I might be persuaded that Marshall could hit 90 receptions, but then again I think the 7 TD might be a smidge high so it would be a wash.

His ADP for PPR leagues is WR8 and 29th overall. That seems a little too rich for my blood. The bandwidth from near the top 10 to the top 20 is pretty tight, as there are a lot of receivers that might fall pretty close projection wise. So I would probably explore who else would be available at other positions before I jumped in at the early side of the WR run. No sense grabbing the first guy when you could get a couple similar guys a round or two later.

Jeez, it seems like I'm right in the middle of this debate. I think that those rating him top 5 are to high but these posts still make no sense to me. To the bolded since 1980 Marshall is the 2nd youngest receiver to hit 100 receptions. He is also one of 7 guys to have at least 3 100 catch seasons. The rest of the list goes Harrison, Rice, Welker, AJ, Marshall, Herman Moore, Wayne- as far as that peer group goes seasons 27-29 were extremely good to these guys. Everyone of them was a pro-bowler at least twice in those three years, the worst fantasy season any of them put up was Moore's 82/983/5 as a 29 year old (15 games) or Welker's coming off an ACL season at 29.Even if you want to include players with 2 100 catch seasons the trend is extremely strong. Boldin was very productive 27-29 on a per game basis, and Fitz, Holt, Sterling Sharp and Jimmy Smith and Roddy White were all great for that stretch. Cris Carter was great from 28 on, and Rod Smith was pretty good (3 1,000 yard seasons) during that stretch.

Basically ONLY Randy Moss didn't dominate from 27-29 for players who ended up with 2+ seasons of 100 catches or more.

Given his age and QB I don't know why you project a guy like Marshall to basically tie the worst season of his career. Hes already done it (100 receptions) with 2 QBs and was on pace for 98 over a full slate with a 3rd (2 of whom are backups shortly thereafter). And even last season when he caught *only* 81 he still put up well above his average y/c that season. So projecting him in some weird middle ground of 84 for 13 y/c seems very hedgy and lazy.

Dodds has Marshall projected at roughly an average of the past two years. I don't see how that is unreasonable. He had a 4 year stretch of 13.0, 12.2, 11.1, and 11.8. Projecting him at 1 13.0 ypc also seems reasonable to me.

It is unreasonable because he isn't in Miami, doesn't have Chad Henne throwing him the ball, and won't face Revis island twice a season either.

 

[baconisgood]

If we use Dodds' projections and 1 PPR, Marshall projects at WR14. If people want to say that Dodds is way off predicting a 84-1100-7 season, that's up to them. I might be persuaded that Marshall could hit 90 receptions, but then again I think the 7 TD might be a smidge high so it would be a wash.

His ADP for PPR leagues is WR8 and 29th overall. That seems a little too rich for my blood. The bandwidth from near the top 10 to the top 20 is pretty tight, as there are a lot of receivers that might fall pretty close projection wise. So I would probably explore who else would be available at other positions before I jumped in at the early side of the WR run. No sense grabbing the first guy when you could get a couple similar guys a round or two later.

Jeez, it seems like I'm right in the middle of this debate. I think that those rating him top 5 are to high but these posts still make no sense to me. To the bolded since 1980 Marshall is the 2nd youngest receiver to hit 100 receptions. He is also one of 7 guys to have at least 3 100 catch seasons. The rest of the list goes Harrison, Rice, Welker, AJ, Marshall, Herman Moore, Wayne- as far as that peer group goes seasons 27-29 were extremely good to these guys. Everyone of them was a pro-bowler at least twice in those three years, the worst fantasy season any of them put up was Moore's 82/983/5 as a 29 year old (15 games) or Welker's coming off an ACL season at 29.Even if you want to include players with 2 100 catch seasons the trend is extremely strong. Boldin was very productive 27-29 on a per game basis, and Fitz, Holt, Sterling Sharp and Jimmy Smith and Roddy White were all great for that stretch. Cris Carter was great from 28 on, and Rod Smith was pretty good (3 1,000 yard seasons) during that stretch.

Basically ONLY Randy Moss didn't dominate from 27-29 for players who ended up with 2+ seasons of 100 catches or more.

Given his age and QB I don't know why you project a guy like Marshall to basically tie the worst season of his career. Hes already done it (100 receptions) with 2 QBs and was on pace for 98 over a full slate with a 3rd (2 of whom are backups shortly thereafter). And even last season when he caught *only* 81 he still put up well above his average y/c that season. So projecting him in some weird middle ground of 84 for 13 y/c seems very hedgy and lazy.

Dodds has Marshall projected at roughly an average of the past two years. I don't see how that is unreasonable. He had a 4 year stretch of 13.0, 12.2, 11.1, and 11.8. Projecting him at 1 13.0 ypc also seems reasonable to me.

Why does using the last two years averages for a player that is switching teams, switching schemes and switching QBs seem reasonable? In reality the projection isn't an average of the past two years. Its close to an average of the past 2 years for receptions and y/reception but then he bumps up TDs from 4.5 (an average of the last 2 years) to 7 which is above (slightly) his career average for TDs. No it could be that there is logic behind this hybrid approach but as others, and I, have pointed out there is a substantial precedent from not only Marshall, but from guys who performed on a level close to Marshall's, that there are a lot of reasons for him to produce at a high level this season. You haven't addressed those points at all. In fact the sum total of your argument has been.

1. Chi won't throw 600 times (refuted as a good reason)

2. Dodds has him at place X

3. I agree with Dodds.

 

[Buck Stop]

surprised some are predicting Roddy White to be top 5 over Julio. Even Roddy himself as acknowledged a changing of the guard there.

 

[baconisgood]

If we use Dodds' projections and 1 PPR, Marshall projects at WR14. If people want to say that Dodds is way off predicting a 84-1100-7 season, that's up to them. I might be persuaded that Marshall could hit 90 receptions, but then again I think the 7 TD might be a smidge high so it would be a wash.

His ADP for PPR leagues is WR8 and 29th overall. That seems a little too rich for my blood. The bandwidth from near the top 10 to the top 20 is pretty tight, as there are a lot of receivers that might fall pretty close projection wise. So I would probably explore who else would be available at other positions before I jumped in at the early side of the WR run. No sense grabbing the first guy when you could get a couple similar guys a round or two later.

Jeez, it seems like I'm right in the middle of this debate. I think that those rating him top 5 are to high but these posts still make no sense to me. To the bolded since 1980 Marshall is the 2nd youngest receiver to hit 100 receptions. He is also one of 7 guys to have at least 3 100 catch seasons. The rest of the list goes Harrison, Rice, Welker, AJ, Marshall, Herman Moore, Wayne- as far as that peer group goes seasons 27-29 were extremely good to these guys. Everyone of them was a pro-bowler at least twice in those three years, the worst fantasy season any of them put up was Moore's 82/983/5 as a 29 year old (15 games) or Welker's coming off an ACL season at 29.Even if you want to include players with 2 100 catch seasons the trend is extremely strong. Boldin was very productive 27-29 on a per game basis, and Fitz, Holt, Sterling Sharp and Jimmy Smith and Roddy White were all great for that stretch. Cris Carter was great from 28 on, and Rod Smith was pretty good (3 1,000 yard seasons) during that stretch.

Basically ONLY Randy Moss didn't dominate from 27-29 for players who ended up with 2+ seasons of 100 catches or more.

Given his age and QB I don't know why you project a guy like Marshall to basically tie the worst season of his career. Hes already done it (100 receptions) with 2 QBs and was on pace for 98 over a full slate with a 3rd (2 of whom are backups shortly thereafter). And even last season when he caught *only* 81 he still put up well above his average y/c that season. So projecting him in some weird middle ground of 84 for 13 y/c seems very hedgy and lazy.

Dodds has Marshall projected at roughly an average of the past two years. I don't see how that is unreasonable. He had a 4 year stretch of 13.0, 12.2, 11.1, and 11.8. Projecting him at 1 13.0 ypc also seems reasonable to me.

It is unreasonable because he isn't in Miami, doesn't have Chad Henne throwing him the ball, and won't face Revis island twice a season either.

I don't know if Revis covered him or not Marshall has 341 yards and 2 TDs, he wasn't hurting from facing the Jets.

 

[baconisgood]

surprised some are predicting Roddy White to be top 5 over Julio. Even Roddy himself as acknowledged a changing of the guard there.

Its much easier to justify in PPR leagues and 2nd year WRs aren't always on a straight up path. Even those that are good WRs in the long run often have a hiccup year 2 while guys with Roddie's history rarely fall off the map at his age without injury. For some it will be a safety pick.

 

[David Yudkin]

If we use Dodds' projections and 1 PPR, Marshall projects at WR14. If people want to say that Dodds is way off predicting a 84-1100-7 season, that's up to them. I might be persuaded that Marshall could hit 90 receptions, but then again I think the 7 TD might be a smidge high so it would be a wash.

His ADP for PPR leagues is WR8 and 29th overall. That seems a little too rich for my blood. The bandwidth from near the top 10 to the top 20 is pretty tight, as there are a lot of receivers that might fall pretty close projection wise. So I would probably explore who else would be available at other positions before I jumped in at the early side of the WR run. No sense grabbing the first guy when you could get a couple similar guys a round or two later.

Jeez, it seems like I'm right in the middle of this debate. I think that those rating him top 5 are to high but these posts still make no sense to me. To the bolded since 1980 Marshall is the 2nd youngest receiver to hit 100 receptions. He is also one of 7 guys to have at least 3 100 catch seasons. The rest of the list goes Harrison, Rice, Welker, AJ, Marshall, Herman Moore, Wayne- as far as that peer group goes seasons 27-29 were extremely good to these guys. Everyone of them was a pro-bowler at least twice in those three years, the worst fantasy season any of them put up was Moore's 82/983/5 as a 29 year old (15 games) or Welker's coming off an ACL season at 29.Even if you want to include players with 2 100 catch seasons the trend is extremely strong. Boldin was very productive 27-29 on a per game basis, and Fitz, Holt, Sterling Sharp and Jimmy Smith and Roddy White were all great for that stretch. Cris Carter was great from 28 on, and Rod Smith was pretty good (3 1,000 yard seasons) during that stretch.

Basically ONLY Randy Moss didn't dominate from 27-29 for players who ended up with 2+ seasons of 100 catches or more.

Given his age and QB I don't know why you project a guy like Marshall to basically tie the worst season of his career. Hes already done it (100 receptions) with 2 QBs and was on pace for 98 over a full slate with a 3rd (2 of whom are backups shortly thereafter). And even last season when he caught *only* 81 he still put up well above his average y/c that season. So projecting him in some weird middle ground of 84 for 13 y/c seems very hedgy and lazy.

Dodds has Marshall projected at roughly an average of the past two years. I don't see how that is unreasonable. He had a 4 year stretch of 13.0, 12.2, 11.1, and 11.8. Projecting him at 1 13.0 ypc also seems reasonable to me.

Why does using the last two years averages for a player that is switching teams, switching schemes and switching QBs seem reasonable? In reality the projection isn't an average of the past two years. Its close to an average of the past 2 years for receptions and y/reception but then he bumps up TDs from 4.5 (an average of the last 2 years) to 7 which is above (slightly) his career average for TDs. No it could be that there is logic behind this hybrid approach but as others, and I, have pointed out there is a substantial precedent from not only Marshall, but from guys who performed on a level close to Marshall's, that there are a lot of reasons for him to produce at a high level this season. You haven't addressed those points at all. In fact the sum total of your argument has been.

1. Chi won't throw 600 times (refuted as a good reason)

2. Dodds has him at place X

3. I agree with Dodds.

To delve into this deeper, I never gave the full rundown as to my position on Marshall. So to start over.A lot of sentiment here and deference is being to given to the Marshall / Cutler connection. I agree that is a good starting point. However, that's about all that is really similar with regard to their situations.

- Different OCs and systems in CHI than in DEN

- Different philosophies in CHI than in DEN (CHI more run oriented at least to date)

- Bears look like a two headed monster in Forte and Bush at RB

- DEN way more passing attempts than the Bears have had

- Not necessarily better receiving options in CHI than in DEN (other people have insisted the Bears WR heretofor was not so hot)

- Different (ie not as good) OL line than in DEN

- Different schedule / division to deal with than in DEN (teams in the AFC West were really not that great)

- Tice teams had the same percentage of sacks as Martz offenses have had, thus making Cutler at risk of getting nailed or banged up perhaps a little bit more than most QBs

- I personally am not convinced Cutler is an elite QB and I would say he was middle of the road or average. (Probably still better than what he had in MIA)

- Cutler's peripheral, per game, and season totals have not really improved much olver his career (maybe a slight improvement in some areas, but generally his efficiency numbers are still the same)

- The statement above tells me that unless Cutler throws the ball a ton his numbers won't approach his one Top 5 year in DEN

- Who knows if the Tice system will play well in the Windy City (it hasn't been implemented in 8 years) and if it will be competitive in the current NFL

Add all that together, and I see a slight improvement for the offense this year, but I don't see a major jump up like some are predicting. I would slot Marshall at somewhere around 90-1150-6. IMO, that won't end up as WR3 overall numbers.

 

[Sylira21]

I don't know, maybe Marshall IS the second coming of Marty Booker. I hope so for Chicago fans.

But the years of him getting 100 receptions a year were under Shanahan - a coach and an offensive system known for inflating the catch count of starting WR's (anyone remember Eddie Royal?).

This is NOT the same offense. All apologies to Mike "Randy Ratio" Tice. And Chicago is not the same city. Isn't this where Mushin Muhammad said "Wide Recievers go to die"?

Lovie Smith wants to win. His method is defense and ball control. Is that changing? Is he going to start force feeding the ball to Marshall to make the front office look good?

The projections are soft, as they should be, with a new team, new system. And there IS a big glob of WR's with a lot of talent and opportunity in the 3-20 range. But for my taste I'll take the Green bay duo, the Atlanta duo, both Giants receivers, AJ Green, Wes Welker, and Marques Colston ahead of Marshall.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

If we use Dodds' projections and 1 PPR, Marshall projects at WR14. If people want to say that Dodds is way off predicting a 84-1100-7 season, that's up to them. I might be persuaded that Marshall could hit 90 receptions, but then again I think the 7 TD might be a smidge high so it would be a wash.

His ADP for PPR leagues is WR8 and 29th overall. That seems a little too rich for my blood. The bandwidth from near the top 10 to the top 20 is pretty tight, as there are a lot of receivers that might fall pretty close projection wise. So I would probably explore who else would be available at other positions before I jumped in at the early side of the WR run. No sense grabbing the first guy when you could get a couple similar guys a round or two later.

Jeez, it seems like I'm right in the middle of this debate. I think that those rating him top 5 are to high but these posts still make no sense to me. To the bolded since 1980 Marshall is the 2nd youngest receiver to hit 100 receptions. He is also one of 7 guys to have at least 3 100 catch seasons. The rest of the list goes Harrison, Rice, Welker, AJ, Marshall, Herman Moore, Wayne- as far as that peer group goes seasons 27-29 were extremely good to these guys. Everyone of them was a pro-bowler at least twice in those three years, the worst fantasy season any of them put up was Moore's 82/983/5 as a 29 year old (15 games) or Welker's coming off an ACL season at 29.Even if you want to include players with 2 100 catch seasons the trend is extremely strong. Boldin was very productive 27-29 on a per game basis, and Fitz, Holt, Sterling Sharp and Jimmy Smith and Roddy White were all great for that stretch. Cris Carter was great from 28 on, and Rod Smith was pretty good (3 1,000 yard seasons) during that stretch.

Basically ONLY Randy Moss didn't dominate from 27-29 for players who ended up with 2+ seasons of 100 catches or more.

Given his age and QB I don't know why you project a guy like Marshall to basically tie the worst season of his career. Hes already done it (100 receptions) with 2 QBs and was on pace for 98 over a full slate with a 3rd (2 of whom are backups shortly thereafter). And even last season when he caught *only* 81 he still put up well above his average y/c that season. So projecting him in some weird middle ground of 84 for 13 y/c seems very hedgy and lazy.

Dodds has Marshall projected at roughly an average of the past two years. I don't see how that is unreasonable. He had a 4 year stretch of 13.0, 12.2, 11.1, and 11.8. Projecting him at 1 13.0 ypc also seems reasonable to me.

Why does using the last two years averages for a player that is switching teams, switching schemes and switching QBs seem reasonable? In reality the projection isn't an average of the past two years. Its close to an average of the past 2 years for receptions and y/reception but then he bumps up TDs from 4.5 (an average of the last 2 years) to 7 which is above (slightly) his career average for TDs. No it could be that there is logic behind this hybrid approach but as others, and I, have pointed out there is a substantial precedent from not only Marshall, but from guys who performed on a level close to Marshall's, that there are a lot of reasons for him to produce at a high level this season. You haven't addressed those points at all. In fact the sum total of your argument has been.

1. Chi won't throw 600 times (refuted as a good reason)

2. Dodds has him at place X

3. I agree with Dodds.

To delve into this deeper, I never gave the full rundown as to my position on Marshall. So to start over.A lot of sentiment here and deference is being to given to the Marshall / Cutler connection. I agree that is a good starting point. However, that's about all that is really similar with regard to their situations.

- Different OCs and systems in CHI than in DEN I've heard that Tice is tailoring his offense to the strengths of Cutler and things he did in Denver.

Also QB coach Jeremy Bates is now in Chicago...the same one he had in Denver. I'd say this is the most Cutler friendly system since his Denver days.

- Different philosophies in CHI than in DEN (CHI more run oriented at least to date)If you have Lemons are you going to make oranage juice? Chicago didn't have the OL/WR to throw the ball well the past few seasons, so they ran it.

- Bears look like a two headed monster in Forte and Bush at RBMost teams have a good backup RB. Rivers had 582 attempts last season despite Mathews/Tolbert. Bush was brought in as an insurance policy if Forte was holding out/leaving, short yardage, change of pace, and good backup RB. Not because Chicago is the second coming of Carolina Panthers 2008 season.

- DEN way more passing attempts than the Bears have hadMike Tice's teams have all had over 510 attempts...they're going to sling the rock.

- Not necessarily better receiving options in CHI than in DEN (other people have insisted the Bears WR heretofor was not so hot)A lot more than in Miami and he still put up good numbers.

- Different (ie not as good) OL line than in DENAgreed, but the OL is improving...see response below.

- Different schedule / division to deal with than in DEN (teams in the AFC West were really not that great)Have you seen the secondaries in the NFC North...yuck. I also posted the #1 CB's Marshall will face this season...nobody to be concerned about.

- Tice teams had the same percentage of sacks as Martz offenses have had, thus making Cutler at risk of getting nailed or banged up perhaps a little bit more than most QBsI posted this above: OL is improved. Over Jay Cutler's last 5 starts in Chicago, he was sacked only 5 times. Chicago was also 5-0 during that stretch. Now add in first pick Gabe Carimi who's slimmed down and looked good in camp at RT. I'd say they got better.

- I personally am not convinced Cutler is an elite QB and I would say he was middle of the road or average. (Probably still better than what he had in MIA)Greg Cosell says different

- Cutler's peripheral, per game, and season totals have not really improved much olver his career (maybe a slight improvement in some areas, but generally his efficiency numbers are still the same) Remember how bad Cutler is in the red zone? Red zone last two years:

2011= 8 TD 0 INT

2010= 15 TD 3 INT

- The statement above tells me that unless Cutler throws the ball a ton his numbers won't approach his one Top 5 year in DENDoes he have to attempt 660 passes to give Marshall enough targets?

- Who knows if the Tice system will play well in the Windy City (it hasn't been implemented in 8 years) and if it will be competitive in the current NFLThis doesn't even need a response.

Add all that together, and I see a slight improvement for the offense this year, but I don't see a major jump up like some are predicting. I would slot Marshall at somewhere around 90-1150-6. IMO, that won't end up as WR3 overall numbers.

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

I'm not sure where this is coming from. Marshall's best fantasy season was WR9 (0 ppr). That was when he played with Cutler before (2007). The following season, the Broncos passing attempts shot way up (to 620 attempts) . . . but Marshall's totals went down (WR12).Sure, Cutler and Marshall are back together in CHI, a team that has run a lot more than the Broncos did (and a team that is unlikely to throw the ball 620 times). Also consider it is now a Mike Tice offense (and who knows how that will play in the current NFL).Other factors include the Bears usually playing more of a tough defense / ground and pound old school football. Forte and Bush would be perfect for that strategy.Add all of that into the mix and I don't see Marshall anywhere near the Top 3-5 (I would guess somewhere in the teens).

So if Marshall puts up 102 1325 and 7, you dont think hell be top 5? I think hell be darn close, even in standard scoring that would be close.To say Marshall doesn't have the potential to be a top 3-5 fantasy WR because of stats is a bit misguided

 

[David Yudkin]

I'm not sure where this is coming from. Marshall's best fantasy season was WR9 (0 ppr). That was when he played with Cutler before (2007). The following season, the Broncos passing attempts shot way up (to 620 attempts) . . . but Marshall's totals went down (WR12).Sure, Cutler and Marshall are back together in CHI, a team that has run a lot more than the Broncos did (and a team that is unlikely to throw the ball 620 times). Also consider it is now a Mike Tice offense (and who knows how that will play in the current NFL).Other factors include the Bears usually playing more of a tough defense / ground and pound old school football. Forte and Bush would be perfect for that strategy.Add all of that into the mix and I don't see Marshall anywhere near the Top 3-5 (I would guess somewhere in the teens).

So if Marshall puts up 102 1325 and 7, you dont think hell be top 5? I think hell be darn close, even in standard scoring that would be close.To say Marshall doesn't have the potential to be a top 3-5 fantasy WR because of stats is a bit misguided

My point was that I don't see Marshall putting up a 102-1325-7 season. I have outlined any number of reasons why I don't see Marshall having a total statline as high as the one you have suggested. Sure, if he did he would be close to a Top 5 WR in PPR leagues (last year that would have ranked 6th).

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

I'm not sure where this is coming from. Marshall's best fantasy season was WR9 (0 ppr). That was when he played with Cutler before (2007). The following season, the Broncos passing attempts shot way up (to 620 attempts) . . . but Marshall's totals went down (WR12).Sure, Cutler and Marshall are back together in CHI, a team that has run a lot more than the Broncos did (and a team that is unlikely to throw the ball 620 times). Also consider it is now a Mike Tice offense (and who knows how that will play in the current NFL).Other factors include the Bears usually playing more of a tough defense / ground and pound old school football. Forte and Bush would be perfect for that strategy.Add all of that into the mix and I don't see Marshall anywhere near the Top 3-5 (I would guess somewhere in the teens).

So if Marshall puts up 102 1325 and 7, you dont think hell be top 5? I think hell be darn close, even in standard scoring that would be close.To say Marshall doesn't have the potential to be a top 3-5 fantasy WR because of stats is a bit misguided

My point was that I don't see Marshall putting up a 102-1325-7 season. I have outlined any number of reasons why I don't see Marshall having a total statline as high as the one you have suggested. Sure, if he did he would be close to a Top 5 WR in PPR leagues (last year that would have ranked 6th).

as much as you pointed out that he hasn't reached the upper tier, when was the last time (other than two years ago) top 10? Marshall ranks in my .5 ppr league2007-WR92008-WR82009-WR72010-WR222011-WR12The year he was WR22 he had missed two games so, as much as you pointed out he hasn't been higher than WR9 in any year(borderline historic year for WR), he has been right around that spot for 4 out of the last 5 years. Being WR12 last year was quite an accomplishment considering the lack of talent around him.sure, the Bears may not pass a lot, and in the past it has been a place where WRs go to die, but have they had anyone with even close to Marshalls skill set? Before Marshall last year, when was the last time a Dolphins WR was rated #12 or higher in a .5 PPR? Not to mention they drafted Alshon Jeffery in the second round this year and Forte is coming off a, at least semi- big injury. I think the offense is changing, they know they are going to need to score a lot of points to keep up in this division.I dont know any WR other than Roddy white who has been more consistent in the last 5 years, for that, I think Marshall is a more than valid top 5 pick when your looking at redraft this year, in any format. I agree that maybe he doesn't have the upside of an Andre Johnson or Hakeem Nicks, but who do you trust more out of the three?

 

[David Yudkin]

I'm not sure where this is coming from. Marshall's best fantasy season was WR9 (0 ppr). That was when he played with Cutler before (2007). The following season, the Broncos passing attempts shot way up (to 620 attempts) . . . but Marshall's totals went down (WR12).Sure, Cutler and Marshall are back together in CHI, a team that has run a lot more than the Broncos did (and a team that is unlikely to throw the ball 620 times). Also consider it is now a Mike Tice offense (and who knows how that will play in the current NFL).Other factors include the Bears usually playing more of a tough defense / ground and pound old school football. Forte and Bush would be perfect for that strategy.Add all of that into the mix and I don't see Marshall anywhere near the Top 3-5 (I would guess somewhere in the teens).

So if Marshall puts up 102 1325 and 7, you dont think hell be top 5? I think hell be darn close, even in standard scoring that would be close.To say Marshall doesn't have the potential to be a top 3-5 fantasy WR because of stats is a bit misguided

My point was that I don't see Marshall putting up a 102-1325-7 season. I have outlined any number of reasons why I don't see Marshall having a total statline as high as the one you have suggested. Sure, if he did he would be close to a Top 5 WR in PPR leagues (last year that would have ranked 6th).

as much as you pointed out that he hasn't reached the upper tier, when was the last time (other than two years ago) top 10? Marshall ranks in my .5 ppr league2007-WR92008-WR82009-WR72010-WR222011-WR12so, as much as you pointed out he hasn't been higher than WR9 in any year(borderline historic year for WR), he has been right around that spot for 4 out of the last 5 years. Being WR12 last year qas quite an accomplishment considering the lack of talent around him.sure, the Bears may not pass a lot, and in the past it has been a place where WRs go to die, but have they had anyone with even close to Marshalls skill set?Not to mention they drafted Alshon Jeffery in the second round this year and Forte is coming off a, at least semi- big injury. I think the offense is changing, they know they are going to need to score a lot of points to keep up in this division.I dont know any WR other than Roddy white who has been more consistent in the last 5 years, for that, I think Marshall is a more than valid top 5 pick when your looking at redraft this year. I agree that maybe he doesn't have the upside of an Andre Johnson or Hakeem Nicks, but who do you trust more out of the three?

I'm not saying Marshall isn't consistent, I just don't think he is as good as some are suggesting. But since you asked, if we assume good health and no contract concerns (a big assumption), I would probably draft the following over Marshall in a ppr league this year (not in order):MegatronAJFitzgeraldWhiteJonesWelkerNicksCruzJenningsHarvinColstonAfter that, I would say Marshall, SSmith, Wallace, and AJ Green are all in the running. So I personally would consider him in the WR12-15 range and hope for a Top 8-10 season. As you said he is consistent, so I would expect really no worse than a WR15-20 season.I saw him go 12th overall in a draft this season, which to me is just WAY too early.The other issue (or at least a consideration) is that Marshall is always a risk for an off field incident and suspension