Travdogg's NFL Mock Draft 2-14-23 (1 Viewer)

[travdogg]

Now that the season is over (congrats KC) its time to look forward, and with that in mind I present my incredibly early 2023 mock draft. I will be going 2 rounds and have projected 2 trades.

Round 1:

1. Colts=Bryce Young QB Alabama, no more QB roulette, new HC gets his man. Ideal QB prospect everywhere but size. Colts give up 35th pick, and some non 1st round pick(s) in 2024.

2. Texans=Jalen Carter DT Georgia, I understand people are gonna want QB here, but I think Ryans will be more interested in getting a Bosa-level defensive blue chipper. I also think Houston makes a lot of sense for a guy like Jimmy G.

3. Cardinals=Will Anderson DE Alabama, is a little overrated on my opinion, but is clearly the best edge rusher on this class, and that is a major hole for Arizona.

4. Bears=Tyree Wilson DE Texas Tech, this might seem high at the moment, but Wilson is a guy I think will be consensus top-5 after the combine. His measurables are off the charts, as he's been compared to a young JPP.

5. Seahawks=Will Levis QB Kentucky, I think Levis is going to be too tempting to fall as far as his detractors think he should. This would be an ideal situation as he can sit behind Geno and develop.

6. Lions=Devin Witherspoon CB Illinois, another guy I think will be flying up boards in the coming weeks. Witherspoon doesn't have ideal size (6-0 180) but is perfect otherwise. Allowed a passer rating of 25 in his coverage last season.

7. Raiders=CJ Stroud QB Ohio State, personally, I think he's a little overrated. Solid floor, but more of a Tua/Mac Jones type, where I think he's only as good as those around him. That said, Davante Adams and Darren Waller would qualify. McDaniels gets his guy, I'm confident it'll go better than (Tebow) his last guy.

8. Falcons=Quentin Johnston WR TCU, I think Atlanta gives Ridder a year as the starter, and for the 3rd straight season, adds to their passing game weapons, which hopefully leads to them actually passing. Johnston compliments London and Pitts very well, and will force defenses to cover the entire field.

9. Panthers=Brian Branch S Alabama, Carolina is building a talented young back end and Branch gives them a very versatile chess piece. I think Carolina doesn't make a big splash at QB. Possible Matt Corral gets a shot, or possibly stick with Darnold for a year. I do think they'd be players for Lamar, but I don't think the Ravens deal him for anything short of what the Texans got for Watson, and I don't see that being met.

10. Eagles=Christian Gonzalez CB Oregon, athletic marvel, with size (6-2 201) Philly likes. Eagles are likely losing a minimum of 1 starter in the secondary this offseason and Slay and Bradberry (assuming he's not the odd man out) are both up there in age.

11. Titans=Paris Johnson OT Ohio State, Taylor Lewan has played his last down as a Titan (maybe in general?) and the OL has slowly been falling apart even with him. Johnson was only a 1 year starter at T, after moving from G, but he looks to have an elite ceiling. I think the Titans continue on with Tannehill at QB, which they should, as he's very underrated.

12. Texans=Anthony Richardson QB Florida, I think he's gonna be all over boards. Many teams likely won't have him as a 1st rounder, and some may not even have him as a QB. Personally, I think he's underrated, and could be the best player in this draft if things break right. He requires patience though, and I think the Texans are a good spot for that, as he sits behind Jimmy G for a year. This would be ideal for Ryans to start his tenure getting a defensive centerpiece and still getting the QB of the future.

13. Packers=Peter Skoronski OT Northwestern, I think GB has a bit of a rebuild this offseason, as I think Bakhtiari goes, Aaron Jones could go, and as evidenced by them having this pick, Aaron Rodgers goes to NY for the 13th pick, and some additional 2024 picks (likely tied to Rodgers not retiring) Skoronski has a higher floor than Paris Johnson, but a lower ceiling.

14. Patriots=Jordan Addison WR USC, the passing game was a mess last season, and while having an actual OC will help, adding a top WR prospect will too. Addison bring everything but size (6-0 175) to the table and gives them a guy who can create with the ball in his hands.

15. Packers=Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR Ohio State, while GB has typically shied away from 1st round WRs, they become a bigger priority without Rodgers. JSN is a perfect compliment to what Christian Watson showed himself to be as a rookie, if Doubs can pan out, GB may have completely rebuilt a young WR group in just 2 seasons.

16. Commanders=Joey Porter Jr. CB Penn State, Ron Rivera adds a physical CB to his already solid defense. Porter was a little inconsistent but has all the tools and great size at 6-2 198.

17. Steelers=Calijah Kancey DT Pittsburgh, 2nd straight season a Pitt Panther is the Steelers #1 pick. Kancey is a very disruptive interior pass rusher, and the Steelers could use some youth there, as they never really replaced Tuitt, and Cam Heyward is getting up there, and at the very least could use more help. Kancey had 47 pressures this season and has a very unique build at 6-0 280 that makes him a leverage nightmare for interior OL.

18. Lions=Lukas Van Ness DE Iowa, they don't come stronger than Van Ness, who just bullies OTs at 6-5 270. He's drawn Justin Smith comparisons, and I think he'd be a perfect fit opposite Aidan Hutchinson, as the Lions continue to work on their defense.

19. Bucs=Dalton Kincaid TE Utah, maybe a bold call, but I think he's the 1st TE off the board as more of a receiving threat than Mayer. With as bad of cap issues as anyone, and unlikely to take the NO approach of kicking the can down the road every year. I think TB settles for a Jacoby Brissett type, maybe giving Trask a shot, but no major investment at QB, meaning adding weapons in the draft is a priority.

20. Seahawks=Myles Murphy DE Clemson, top recruit who never really improved despite elite tools. He's mocked much higher than this, but I think he'll slide a little. He needs a lot of coaching, and Seattle is a good landing spot.

21. Chargers=Broderick Jones OT Georgia, raw talent who may have been a top-5 pick in 2024, but has only 1 year of starting. That said, Chargers have needed a RT forever. I know many Chargers fans want a big play WR, but I think this is a better investment.

22. Ravens=Zay Flowers WR Boston College, all the speed, that's what Flowers brings. Drawing comps to a young TY Hilton, the Ravens offense fell apart when they lost Bateman's field stretching ability, and having 2 guys that can do it, will free up more space for Andrews and Lamar. I think Lamar stays, just so rare for top notch QBs to switch teams unless they are well over 30, or in a unique situation like Watson was.

23. Vikings=Deonte Banks CB Maryland, new DC Brian Flores has preferred a man coverage defense and that isn't really how the Vikings are equipped at the moment. I think Peterson is 50-50 to return, and Dantzler has moments of greatness mixed with his lack of speed being a big issue. Adding Banks (6-2 205) to a hopefully better in year 2 Booth (and Cine hopefully) could give the Vikings a fast rebuilt young secondary.

24. Jaguars=O'Cyrus Torrence G Florida, people mover in the run game, and a solid pass blocker, if you think Guard is a position worthy of taking in round 1, he's that guy. Jags didn't open many holes in the run game, it seemed like Etienne was having to make guys miss in the backfield frequently, and adding more protection for a young franchise QB is never a bad idea.

25. Giants=Nathaniel Dell WR Houston, speed demon with back-to-back 1300 yard seasons. His 5-10 165 frame may scare some teams off, but I feel like that's becoming less and less of an issue as speed wins the day more often than not. I think the Giants stick with Daniel Jones, and adding Dell to Wan'Dale Robinson and hoping the Hodgins breakout down the stretch is a sign of things to come, could give the Giants a nice young WR group.

26. Cowboys=Bijan Robinson RB Texas, I don't think Jerry can resist. Robinson is the best RB prospect since Barkley in my opinion, but its a solid RB class, and teams have mostly learned not to take guys too highly. I think Zeke is gone, and while I think Pollard could get tagged, its 1 year, and whether true or not, I think Dallas thinks he's a part time player.

27. Bills=Andre Carter DE Army, great size at 6-7 260, but he's pretty raw, and didn't dominate despite level of competition, going to McDermott is probably perfect fit, especially being eased in as a situational player, behind Miller/Rousseau. Its maybe a boring pick for Buffalo, but one that tends to pan out.

28. Bengals=Nolan Smith DE Georgia, pretty much the opposite of Carter as he's grossly undersized at 6-3 235, but is ready to play right now as likely the #3 after Hendrickson/Hubbard.

29. Saints=Bryan Breese DT Clemson, projected much higher due to elite tools, he never really put it together at Clemson though. Injury and inconsistency were his story. That said, this late the potential reward is simply too hard to pass up, especially as this is a free pick for NO. I am expecting Derek Carr to be the Saints QB next season, and was tempted to add a pass catcher here, but this seems more Saints like.

30. Eagles=Will McDonald DE Iowa State, a bit undersized (6-3 236) and somewhat 1 dimensional as a pass rusher. I just described Hassan Reddick as well, and look at his success in this defense. Philly likely is losing a lot of DL depth and McDonald can come in and play right away.

31. Chiefs=Anton Harrison OT Oklahoma, after the OLs performance in the Super Bowl, this may not be considered a need, but KC is proactive and Harrison is already good enough to start at RT. Harrison allowed 4 sacks in 3 years in college. He's not as good in the run game, but I don't think KC will mind that as much as other teams might.

 

[travdogg]

Round 2:

32. Steelers=Tyrique Stevenson CB Miami, 6-0 214, Stevenson had a solid year in the ACC (UNC game being the exception) and the Steelers CBs are nothing special. I know Steelers fans are probably not hoping for both top-32 picks to be on defense, but its where the board fell for me.

33. Texans=Antonio Johnson S Texas A&M, good size at 6-3 195, and excellent quickness especially shooting gaps in the run game, Johnson would continue to add to a young secondary that saw Stingley and Pitre added, and both of them should have more success in Ryans defense than Lovie's.

34. Cardinals=Mazi Smith DT Michigan, Arizona continues adding upfront on defense. Smith (6-3 337) is a run game eraser, who offers a little bit as a pass rusher.

35. Bears=BJ Ojulari DE LSU, yep, that's 2 edge rushers in 2 picks for the Bears. Ojulari is somewhat of a 1 dimensional pass rusher, but Chicago will take what they can get, rebuilding the front is a huge undertaking, and hopefully these first 2 picks get them halfway there.

36. Rams=Emmanuel Forbes CB Mississippi State, ok size at 6-0 180, Forbes was strictly an outside CB in college. He had 6 INTs and allowed only a 44 passer rating this past season.

37. Seahawks=Daiyan Henley LB Washington State, a 6-2 232 LB who is very quick to close space, Henley is a terrific run defender, who needs some work in the pass game, but is athletic enough to suggest its not unreasonable.

38. Raiders=Siaki Ika DT Baylor, space eater and surprisingly good pass rusher, only concern is his size at 6-4 358, that's bordering on could be a problem. Was a very consistent player in college.

39. Panthers=Josh Downs WR North Carolina, staying local here, as Downs was very prolific at UNC. Reminds me some of Tyler Lockett. Could be a slot dynamo in Reich's offense.

40. Saints=Michael Mayer TE Notre Dame, I didn't forget about him, I just think his lack of top end speed will cause more of a fall than expected. Interestingly, I considered him for the Saints pick at 29, so him making it here would be a win for them. Very high floor player, but I question the ceiling a lot. I see the Witten comps, but my concern is he's more Hunter Henry.

41. Titans=Kayshon Boutte WR LSU, personally I've never been a huge fan of his, I think he's just an all around ok WR, but that starts for the Titans, who have Burks and...maybe Kyle Phillips becomes something, maybe?

42. Browns=Sydney Brown S Illinois, 6-0 205 ball of range. Wouldn't be shocked if he ran 4.3. Weaknesses are tackling, and age, as he'll be 23 in week 1. Still, he might be the player Grant Delpit was supposed to be.

43. Jets=Dawand Jones OT Ohio State, 6-8 350, there is some Orlando Brown to his game. I don't think the Mekhi Becton experience sours them on this type of prospect. He'll be Breece Hall's best friend.

44. Falcons=Matthew Bergeron OT Syracuse, extremely steady player who is more of a floor than ceiling pick. With Jake Matthews on the wrong side of 30, and Kaleb McGary a FA (likely to return, but no lock) the Falcons can use a young OT even if he maybe sits this year.

45. Packers=Jammie Robinson S Florida St, awesome name aside, Robinson is an exceptional tackler and cover guy, who isn't much of a playmaker. Personally, I've always preferred the type of safety who doesn't make mistakes over one who makes big plays, but that's just me. Adrian Amos is likely gone, and Robinson could step right into that job.

46. Patriots=Garrett Williams CB Syracuse, 6-0 189 with good quickness, Belichick always seems to get the most out of these types.

47. Commanders=Tanner McKee QB Stanford, I think Washington has a good old fashioned QB competition between McKee and Howell, I also wouldn't be surprised if Heinicke stuck as a depth option. McKee looks a bit like a throwback player, I've heard him compared to a young Joe Flacco, though I think that's more about his size (6-6 230) as he's probably a little more mobile than that and doesn't have young Flacco's big arm. McKee had it hard at Stanford, as they were just less talented than most of the PAC-12. Might be the rare player better in NFL than college.

48. Lions=Luke Musgrave TE Oregon State, outstanding athlete at 6-6 250, and rumored to be a 4.4 guy. Seen some comps to guys like Jared Cook and Noah Fant. I think that seam stretching would be a very welcome fit in Detroit with Williams deep and Amon-Ra short/intermediate. Probably would go higher if not for knee injury limiting him to 2 games this year, and deep TE class.

49. Steelers=Steve Avila G TCU, played both Center and Guard in college. High floor player who is ready to start week 1. Older rookie at 23, but that's probably less of an issue for OL. Better pass clocker than run blocker, but that may also be a function of TCU's offense.

50. Bucs=Jahmyr Gibbs RB Alabama, like I said in round 1, Bucs have no cap room, and need playmakers. In my eyes, I think Gibbs is a similar prospect to what Travis Etienne was. I think he'd start instantly in TB (fully expecting Lenny to be cut) and maybe give way to White in short yardage.

51. Dolphins=Luke Wypler C Ohio State, 3rd Buckeye OL in 51 picks. Allowed only 1 sack in 2 seasons as a starter while also opening holes in the middle. I think its more likely Williams moves back to Guard to accommodate as Miami looks to get their top-5 lineman on the field to protect Tua.

52. Seahawks=John Michael Schmitz C Minnesota, was strictly a C in college but I think he play G if need be. A little better run blocker than pass blocker, and will be a 24 year old rookie. High floor, low ceiling type.

53. Bears=Trenton Simpson LB Clemson, I know he's mocked a lot higher, but I can't see it. He's so raw. He's like the poorest man's Isaiah Simmons. Great Athlete, potentially game changing, but that doesn't really matter yet because he processes so slowly. He could be a great player, but its not likely to be until like year 3. Not a bad investment for a fully rebuilding team like Chicago though.

54. Chargers=Tuli Tuipulotu DE USC, a bit raw and a bit of a tweener, probably likely to play more inside than out at 6-4 290. Had 13 sacks on 56 pressures last season. Only 20 so nowhere near finished product.

55. Lions=Jack Campbell LB Iowa, surname notwithstanding, this feels like a Dan Campbell guy. Huge for a LB at 6-5 246. High floor player, who is a good tackler, and was great in zone coverage. Very much a meat and potatoes type. Not a guy you want man covering TEs or RBs, or blitzing.

56. Jaguars=Tre'Vius Hodges-Tomlinson CB TCU, LaDainian's nephew, THT has his uncles quicks for sure, but he didn;t get his size at only 5-9 180. That's pretty much the only real hole to his game, but he gets in trouble overcompensating for it. Won the Thorpe award for best DB, but also had 14 penalties. Despite that, allowed a passer rating of 42 in his coverage.

57. Giants=Joe Tippman C Wisconsin, amazing quickness getting to the 2nd level and pulling. A RBs best friend on outside runs. Hard to believe he's 320 pounds. Only allowed 1 sack and 5 pressures last year. Also has a sweet mullet.

58. Cowboys=Eli Ricks CB Alabama, has had trouble staying healthy (though not lower body injuries at least) but has looked pretty good when he has. Very much a press man CB at 6-2 190. Not all that quick and could struggle with shifty WRs. Allowed 45 passer rating in 224 coverage snaps this past year.

59. Bills=Zach Charbonnet RB UCLA, one of the most consistent RBs I've ever watched. He's a jack of all trades master of none type, like a young Mark Ingram. I think he and James Cook would complement each other well.

60. Bengals=Sam LaPorta TE Iowa, Iowa continues to be a TE factory. Overall he's probably closer to Fant than Hockenson or especially Kittle. He's amazing after the catch, and can get behind defenses, but he is not a good blocker at all, and is more of a finesse player than a physical one. He's almost like a 6-4 250 slot WR. That said, that's basically what Hayden Hurst is on Cincy and LaPorta is a lot more talented than Hurst is.

61. Panthers=Adetomiwa Adebawore DE Northwestern, triple checked the spelling on that one. The 6-2 280 pounder, is a tweener who played slightly more outside than inside, but may be otherwise in the pros. Had 6 sacks and 31 pressures last season and gives the Panthers a solid rotational player at the very least.

62. Eagles=Jordan Battle S Alabama, rare 4 year starter for Nick Saban, so he's certainly NFL ready. Not the greatest athlete at S, but doesn't make mistakes, and is a good tackler, and zone defender. Not a playmaker, but reliable. Another piece for the Eagles secondary.

63. Chiefs=Felix Anudike-Uzomah DE Kansas State, a hometown guy, as he was a KC native before playing at KSU. Very high floor player, with a great 1st step and an array of moves, to make up for not being a particularly freakish athlete. Had 21 sacks the last 2 seasons, and he and Karlaftis could be KCs edge combo going forward.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

42. Browns=Sydney Brown S Illinois, 6-0 205 ball of range. Wouldn't be shocked if he ran 4.3. Weaknesses are tackling, and age, as he'll be 23 in week 1. Still, he might be the player Grant Delpit was supposed to be.

Couple of issues with this pick.
Delpit began to play well down the stretch this year but biggest flaw is the well documented 'age guardrails' of players selected by Browns GM Andrew Berry.
He simply does not take older players in the draft.
Look at the graph and note the only NFL GM that glaringly stands out in taking younger players.
---------------------------
Cleveland Browns 2023 Age Guardrails On Mock Draft Database's Draft Board
...We know from previous drafts how important the age of players is to Andrew Berry and this graph clearly shows this.
>>> LINK to chart
Felix Zurek
@felixzurek
Here is another look at the #NFLDraft history of NFL GMs this time including #RAS data courtesy of
@MathBomb
-------------------
Felix Zurek
@felixzurek
And here is a closer look at Berry's draft history
@JackDuffin
LINK to chart

 

[Boston]

Nice job...always hate to point out a negative on something like this because it involves so much work and you never know...but I just find it hard to believe that as a Free Agent Jimmy G will go anywhere where they then invest a #1 in his successor in this year's draft...he is just leaving that type of situation and since he has made good $ I gotta believe wherever he goes getting a commitment that he is the uncontested starter will be part of it...and when you look at the QB landscape this offseason he will find that...now, if he bombs who knows what happens next offseason.

 

[travdogg]

Nice job...always hate to point out a negative on something like this because it involves so much work and you never know...but I just find it hard to believe that as a Free Agent Jimmy G will go anywhere where they then invest a #1 in his successor in this year's draft...he is just leaving that type of situation and since he has made good $ I gotta believe wherever he goes getting a commitment that he is the uncontested starter will be part of it...and when you look at the QB landscape this offseason he will find that...now, if he bombs who knows what happens next offseason.

I think ideally that's what would happen for Jimmy G, but I don't think he'll have that luxury. As a 31 year old QB, who is probably a C- on the A-F scale, I don't think his market is going to be as huge as the media seems to think it will be. It certainly doesn't help his case that he was intantly outplayed by Mr. Irrelevent.

Jimmy G's best case scenario would be if Rodgers either retires or stays in Green Bay. Maybe the Jets come calling. I don't think Houston is a lock to go QB, I just think they won't be able to pass on Richardson if he makes it to their 2nd pick. I really don't think they take a QB at #2. I think Ryans will want that defensive centerpiece.

 

[Grahamburn]

Always appreciate this kind of effort. Thanks.

 

[BobbyLayne]

48. Lions=Luke Musgrave TE Oregon State, outstanding athlete at 6-6 250, and rumored to be a 4.4 guy. Seen some comps to guys like Jared Cook and Noah Fant. I think that seam stretching would be a very welcome fit in Detroit with Williams deep and Amon-Ra short/intermediate. Probably would go higher if not for knee injury limiting him to 2 games this year, and deep TE class.

49. Steelers=Steve Avila G TCU, played both Center and Guard in college. High floor player who is ready to start week 1. Older rookie at 23, but that's probably less of an issue for OL. Better pass clocker than run blocker, but that may also be a function of TCU's offense.

PFF: Every NFL team's biggest draft mistake over the past five years
Detroit: Disregard for positional value in the Bob Quinn era​

From 2018-2020, the Lions had six top-50 picks. This is how they utilized them:

C Frank Ragnow (Pick 20, 2018)
RB Kerryon Johnson (Pick 43, 2018)
TE T.J. Hockenson (Pick 8, 2019)
LB Jahlani Tavai (Pick 43, 2019)
CB Jeffrey Okudah (Pick 3, 2020)
RB D’Andre Swift (Pick 35, 2020)

For those scoring at home, the Lions used five of those six picks on the four lowest-paid positions in the NFL. The only way it could have been worse is if they drafted a kicker. And even the pick of a cornerback in 2020 was debatable given Matthew Stafford had one foot out the door with Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert still on the board.

 

[Boston]

Nice job...always hate to point out a negative on something like this because it involves so much work and you never know...but I just find it hard to believe that as a Free Agent Jimmy G will go anywhere where they then invest a #1 in his successor in this year's draft...he is just leaving that type of situation and since he has made good $ I gotta believe wherever he goes getting a commitment that he is the uncontested starter will be part of it...and when you look at the QB landscape this offseason he will find that...now, if he bombs who knows what happens next offseason.

I think ideally that's what would happen for Jimmy G, but I don't think he'll have that luxury. As a 31 year old QB, who is probably a C- on the A-F scale, I don't think his market is going to be as huge as the media seems to think it will be. It certainly doesn't help his case that he was intantly outplayed by Mr. Irrelevent.

Jimmy G's best case scenario would be if Rodgers either retires or stays in Green Bay. Maybe the Jets come calling. I don't think Houston is a lock to go QB, I just think they won't be able to pass on Richardson if he makes it to their 2nd pick. I really don't think they take a QB at #2. I think Ryans will want that defensive centerpiece.

I get your point but Jimmy G has picked a great off-season to be a FA…just a ton of opportunity…not sure how much the $ will be but I think he ends up in a quality situation…now what he does with that opportunity is another story but I just don’t see him being a FA and putting himself into a bridge QB scenario in 2023…if he doesn’t play well there is a good chance 2024 turns into a bridge year.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Lions

1.06 - Perfect. Only question is whether we're still calling Witherspoon a riser. He's the best man defender in the draft and the clear CB1 on most big boards.

1.18 - I guess it makes sense. Wouldn't mind doubling down at CB and grabbing JPJ but if he is gone then I def prefer a twitched up Murphy over Bresee (non-existent pass rushing technique.)

I would feel sick if Kancey by one pick, but it's unlikely he makes it past 13-15 anyway. Kind of resigned to settling for Ojomo or another smaller DT with some pass rushing ability later in the draft (super thin position this year though.)

2.16 - Nope.

WRT Tight End, it's hilarious that everyone projects Detroit drafting the Hock replacement. There's a less than 10% (ten percent) chance Holmes will be taking a Mayer or Kincaid or Musgrave. Just does not compute with what they want to do. Terrible fit, we don't need a move TE who cannot block. Later in the draft, makes sense if they are a good fit.

Darnell Washington - maybe if he falls to #81, bc he's going to be a good 6th OL for someone.

Brevyn Spann-Ford - would be a dream selection at #154, dude is an elite inline blocking TE

What's especially egregious in this mock is you have Detroit taking him one ahead of Steve Avila when the Lions don't have a RG. Evan Brown is going to go get himself a money bag, Big V is a cap cut, and there's literally no one else on the roster.

Better (if you really want an IOL there) pro prospect would be just reach for John Michael-Schmitz. He was phenomenal at the Senior Bowl. Truth be told though they might wait until the 5th or 6th to take 1-2 versatile OL (Jaxon Kirkland, Braeden Daniels, Ricky Stromberg or a raw SEC guy like Nick Broecker or Emil Ekiyor Jr.)

2.23 - Jack Campbell is a great two down linebacker and he's going to be a starter somewhere. I don't see the Lions taking a big backer though, he would just be an awful scheme fit. Trent Simpson makes way more sense here, or Daiyan Henley or DeMarvion Overshown like a round later. LB in the second that would run counter to Holmes penchant for finding devalued positions in latter rounds. The Lions do need an upgrade from Rodriguez & Barnes (not sure if AA returns) but they're far more likely to grab another CB or S here. LB at #81 might work though bc they'll be less quality DBs there.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

49. Steelers=Steve Avila G TCU, played both Center and Guard in college. High floor player who is ready to start week 1. Older rookie at 23, but that's probably less of an issue for OL. Better pass clocker than run blocker, but that may also be a function of TCU's offense

I agree with BL that this guy would be perfect for the Lions at #48. Age is less of a factor if he is projected as a week 1 starter. Could even slide over to center if Ragnow keeps having a bum toe.

 

[Gatorman]

Miami: I think the dolphins are set on the interior of the line, but their glaring need is Linebacker for Fangio's system. I think CB may also be a need depending on Jones and X. I know this is "shot in the dark" at this point bc free agency will clarify things, but if I were the Miami GM I'd use the 3 day 2 picks on LB, LB, and a left tackle project. Maybe a TE.

Miami by position group:
Offense:
QB Set (need a vet backup and it looks like they are all in on Tua for 2024)
WR: Set (may actually trade a player from this group)
TE: Long and Smythe and a free agent likely, but they need a Kittle.
RB: I think they resign their guys and maybe draft a late rounder.
Line: Interior is good. Need to have a better answer for when Armstead cannot go.

Defense:
DT: likely have one of the best tandems and depth in the league.
DE: Already spending a decent chunk here. Maybe draft a project?
LB: HELP HELP HELP!!!!!
CB: had a lot of injuries last year, but likely getting Jones and Needam back as well as all the other guys who got game experience
S: Again, another solid tandem. DO they fit the Fangio scheme? I think so.

 

[Buckna]

Nice job...always hate to point out a negative on something like this because it involves so much work and you never know...but I just find it hard to believe that as a Free Agent Jimmy G will go anywhere where they then invest a #1 in his successor in this year's draft...he is just leaving that type of situation and since he has made good $ I gotta believe wherever he goes getting a commitment that he is the uncontested starter will be part of it...and when you look at the QB landscape this offseason he will find that...now, if he bombs who knows what happens next offseason.

I think ideally that's what would happen for Jimmy G, but I don't think he'll have that luxury. As a 31 year old QB, who is probably a C- on the A-F scale, I don't think his market is going to be as huge as the media seems to think it will be. It certainly doesn't help his case that he was intantly outplayed by Mr. Irrelevent.

Jimmy G's best case scenario would be if Rodgers either retires or stays in Green Bay. Maybe the Jets come calling. I don't think Houston is a lock to go QB, I just think they won't be able to pass on Richardson if he makes it to their 2nd pick. I really don't think they take a QB at #2. I think Ryans will want that defensive centerpiece.

I agree on the logic on #2 but don’t quite get why you think they wouldn’t be able to pass on Richardson? In this scenario I would think they would eschew QB altogether in the 1st round and go with either another defensive weapon or a pass catcher at 12 or the top of the 2nd. Cooks is likely gone, Metchie is a major question mark, and Collins is an unknown. Whoever they go with whether Jimmy G or someone else is going to need someone to throw to.

I don’t think I saw Hooker in your mock, I could see the Texans taking a shot on him in this scenario with one of their 3rd rounders if he’s still there. They have an extra 1st in ‘24, so if Jimmy G or whoever doesn’t work out they would be in a position to potentially go back to the QB well again then.

 

[Boston]

Nice job...always hate to point out a negative on something like this because it involves so much work and you never know...but I just find it hard to believe that as a Free Agent Jimmy G will go anywhere where they then invest a #1 in his successor in this year's draft...he is just leaving that type of situation and since he has made good $ I gotta believe wherever he goes getting a commitment that he is the uncontested starter will be part of it...and when you look at the QB landscape this offseason he will find that...now, if he bombs who knows what happens next offseason.

I think ideally that's what would happen for Jimmy G, but I don't think he'll have that luxury. As a 31 year old QB, who is probably a C- on the A-F scale, I don't think his market is going to be as huge as the media seems to think it will be. It certainly doesn't help his case that he was intantly outplayed by Mr. Irrelevent.

Jimmy G's best case scenario would be if Rodgers either retires or stays in Green Bay. Maybe the Jets come calling. I don't think Houston is a lock to go QB, I just think they won't be able to pass on Richardson if he makes it to their 2nd pick. I really don't think they take a QB at #2. I think Ryans will want that defensive centerpiece.

I agree on the logic on #2 but don’t quite get why you think they wouldn’t be able to pass on Richardson? In this scenario I would think they would eschew QB altogether in the 1st round and go with either another defensive weapon or a pass catcher at 12 or the top of the 2nd. Cooks is likely gone, Metchie is a major question mark, and Collins is an unknown. Whoever they go with whether Jimmy G or someone else is going to need someone to throw to.

I don’t think I saw Hooker in your mock, I could see the Texans taking a shot on him in this scenario with one of their 3rd rounders if he’s still there. They have an extra 1st in ‘24, so if Jimmy G or whoever doesn’t work out they would be in a position to potentially go back to the QB well again then.

Right now the fan of every team without a stud QB is advocating that their team draft Hooker in the second round.

 

[Buckna]

Nice job...always hate to point out a negative on something like this because it involves so much work and you never know...but I just find it hard to believe that as a Free Agent Jimmy G will go anywhere where they then invest a #1 in his successor in this year's draft...he is just leaving that type of situation and since he has made good $ I gotta believe wherever he goes getting a commitment that he is the uncontested starter will be part of it...and when you look at the QB landscape this offseason he will find that...now, if he bombs who knows what happens next offseason.

I think ideally that's what would happen for Jimmy G, but I don't think he'll have that luxury. As a 31 year old QB, who is probably a C- on the A-F scale, I don't think his market is going to be as huge as the media seems to think it will be. It certainly doesn't help his case that he was intantly outplayed by Mr. Irrelevent.

Jimmy G's best case scenario would be if Rodgers either retires or stays in Green Bay. Maybe the Jets come calling. I don't think Houston is a lock to go QB, I just think they won't be able to pass on Richardson if he makes it to their 2nd pick. I really don't think they take a QB at #2. I think Ryans will want that defensive centerpiece.

I agree on the logic on #2 but don’t quite get why you think they wouldn’t be able to pass on Richardson? In this scenario I would think they would eschew QB altogether in the 1st round and go with either another defensive weapon or a pass catcher at 12 or the top of the 2nd. Cooks is likely gone, Metchie is a major question mark, and Collins is an unknown. Whoever they go with whether Jimmy G or someone else is going to need someone to throw to.

I don’t think I saw Hooker in your mock, I could see the Texans taking a shot on him in this scenario with one of their 3rd rounders if he’s still there. They have an extra 1st in ‘24, so if Jimmy G or whoever doesn’t work out they would be in a position to potentially go back to the QB well again then.

Right now the fan of every team without a stud QB is advocating that their team draft Hooker in the second round.

2nd is way too early IMO even if it ends up happening in real life with some team. 6th year senior QB’s are long shots to begin with in the NFL and adding a torn ACL on top? He may be 26 before seeing the field in any real capacity. That’s a gamble I wouldn’t consider until the 3rd or possibly even later depending on how his rehab is looking. But stranger things have happened… Brandon Whedon in the 1st for example!

 

[titusbramble]

I would be extremely happy to get Stroud and fully expect us to get Richardson or Levis

 

[BobbyLayne]

Older rookie is going to be a NBD thing for Day 2/Day 3 guys for the next 2-3 years. Tons of guys will have had 5-6 year college careers bc of Covid.

 

[travdogg]

Nice job...always hate to point out a negative on something like this because it involves so much work and you never know...but I just find it hard to believe that as a Free Agent Jimmy G will go anywhere where they then invest a #1 in his successor in this year's draft...he is just leaving that type of situation and since he has made good $ I gotta believe wherever he goes getting a commitment that he is the uncontested starter will be part of it...and when you look at the QB landscape this offseason he will find that...now, if he bombs who knows what happens next offseason.

I think ideally that's what would happen for Jimmy G, but I don't think he'll have that luxury. As a 31 year old QB, who is probably a C- on the A-F scale, I don't think his market is going to be as huge as the media seems to think it will be. It certainly doesn't help his case that he was intantly outplayed by Mr. Irrelevent.

Jimmy G's best case scenario would be if Rodgers either retires or stays in Green Bay. Maybe the Jets come calling. I don't think Houston is a lock to go QB, I just think they won't be able to pass on Richardson if he makes it to their 2nd pick. I really don't think they take a QB at #2. I think Ryans will want that defensive centerpiece.

I agree on the logic on #2 but don’t quite get why you think they wouldn’t be able to pass on Richardson? In this scenario I would think they would eschew QB altogether in the 1st round and go with either another defensive weapon or a pass catcher at 12 or the top of the 2nd. Cooks is likely gone, Metchie is a major question mark, and Collins is an unknown. Whoever they go with whether Jimmy G or someone else is going to need someone to throw to.

I don’t think I saw Hooker in your mock, I could see the Texans taking a shot on him in this scenario with one of their 3rd rounders if he’s still there. They have an extra 1st in ‘24, so if Jimmy G or whoever doesn’t work out they would be in a position to potentially go back to the QB well again then.

Hooker could/should go in round 3. But I think he's more of a flier than a QB of the future, much like Davis Mills was.

Richardson is BPA at #12 I think. The fact that he's also a QB and QB is also a need, is more of a bonus than anything else, and one that I think would be tough to pass up.

 

[Desert_Power]

Any reason you don't have Cam Smith in the first couple of rounds? I feel like I usually see him mid-late first.

 

[Ilov80s]

Lions

1.06 - Perfect. Only question is whether we're still calling Witherspoon a riser. He's the best man defender in the draft and the clear CB1 on most big boards.

Christian Gonzalez would like a word. Not saying he is better but it's a definite conversation. Also, if Stroud makes it to 6 and we aren't able to orchestrate a trade, I will be a little disappointed.

1.18 - I guess it makes sense. Wouldn't mind doubling down at CB and grabbing JPJ but if he is gone then I def prefer a twitched up Murphy over Bresee (non-existent pass rushing technique.)

I would feel sick if Kancey by one pick, but it's unlikely he makes it past 13-15 anyway. Kind of resigned to settling for Ojomo or another smaller DT with some pass rushing ability later in the draft (super thin position this year though.)

I am still early in my "evals" but I am not a fan LVN at 18. He is an odd case of a sort of inexperienced prospect who isn't particularly young either. He played a relatively low number of snaps for a player of his supposed quality the last 2 seasons and he's going to be 22 this summer. That isn't a deal breaker at all but I've also read/heard a lot about how raw he is and how has no real moves, just a power rush.

That said, the way the board fell kind of sucks for the Lions. I would take a close look at Broderick Jones to play RG, offer OT viability in case of injury and get groomed for starting OT if Decker leaves in 3 years. I also look at O'Cyrus. Yes it is OG which isn't a high value position but putting between Ragnow and Sewell takes a strength and makes it even stronger.

2.16 - Nope.

WRT Tight End, it's hilarious that everyone projects Detroit drafting the Hock replacement. There's a less than 10% (ten percent) chance Holmes will be taking a Mayer or Kincaid or Musgrave. Just does not compute with what they want to do. Terrible fit, we don't need a move TE who cannot block. Later in the draft, makes sense if they are a good fit.

Darnell Washington - maybe if he falls to #81, bc he's going to be a good 6th OL for someone.

Brevyn Spann-Ford - would be a dream selection at #154, dude is an elite inline blocking TE

What's especially egregious in this mock is you have Detroit taking him one ahead of Steve Avila when the Lions don't have a RG. Evan Brown is going to go get himself a money bag, Big V is a cap cut, and there's literally no one else on the roster.

Better (if you really want an IOL there) pro prospect would be just reach for John Michael-Schmitz. He was phenomenal at the Senior Bowl. Truth be told though they might wait until the 5th or 6th to take 1-2 versatile OL (Jaxon Kirkland, Braeden Daniels, Ricky Stromberg or a raw SEC guy like Nick Broecker or Emil Ekiyor Jr.)

Tuli Tuipulotu DE USC. He interests me more than LVN.

2.23 - Jack Campbell is a great two down linebacker and he's going to be a starter somewhere. I don't see the Lions taking a big backer though, he would just be an awful scheme fit. Trent Simpson makes way more sense here, or Daiyan Henley or DeMarvion Overshown like a round later. LB in the second that would run counter to Holmes penchant for finding devalued positions in latter rounds. The Lions do need an upgrade from Rodriguez & Barnes (not sure if AA returns) but they're far more likely to grab another CB or S here. LB at #81 might work though bc they'll be less quality DBs there.

I think you take the shot at Trenton Simpson if he's here and hope you can use him selectively as a rookie and develop his mental game to full time level by year 2 or 3. If he hits, he can hit big and I've been impressed with how the current coaching staff has been able to ramp up players by getting them in situations where they are able to win.

 

[Ilov80s]

Any reason you don't have Cam Smith in the first couple of rounds? I feel like I usually see him mid-late first.

Oh I didn't even see that...yeah Cam Smith pick 18 to Detroit. That's the answer here.

 

[travdogg]

Any reason you don't have Cam Smith in the first couple of rounds? I feel like I usually see him mid-late first.

I think Cam Smith (and Kelee Ringo who is often is 1st rounds as well) are both being really overrated right now. I see them both as 3rd round guys.

I think Cam Smith is slow and doesn't offer the physicality to offset that. He looks like a slot only player to me.

In Ringo's case, I think he's just not a good CB right now. Amazing athlete (6-2 210 likely 4.3) but has no real idea what he's doing. I think he would have been exposed a lot more in college if he hadn't played at Georgia.

 

[travdogg]

I am still early in my "evals" but I am not a fan LVN at 18. He is an odd case of a sort of inexperienced prospect who isn't particularly young either. He played a relatively low number of snaps for a player of his supposed quality the last 2 seasons and he's going to be 22 this summer so he isn't particularly young for a guy with such little experience. That isn't a deal breaker at all but I've also read/heard a lot about how raw he is and how has no real moves, just a power rush.

That said, the way the board fell kind of sucks for the Lions. I would take a close look at Broderick Jones to play RG, offer OT viability in case of injury and get groomed for starting OT if Decker leaves in 3 years. I also look at O'Cyrus. Yes it is OG which isn't a high value position but putting between Ragnow and Sewell takes a strength and makes it even stronger.

2.23 - Jack Campbell is a great two down linebacker and he's going to be a starter somewhere. I don't see the Lions taking a big backer though, he would just be an awful scheme fit. Trent Simpson makes way more sense here, or Daiyan Henley or DeMarvion Overshown like a round later. LB in the second that would run counter to Holmes penchant for finding devalued positions in latter rounds. The Lions do need an upgrade from Rodriguez & Barnes (not sure if AA returns) but they're far more likely to grab another CB or S here. LB at #81 might work though bc they'll be less quality DBs there.

I think you take the shot at Trenton Simpson if he's here and hope you can use him selectively as a rookie and develop his mental game to full time level by year 2 or 3. If he hits, he can hit big and I've been impressed with how the current coaching staff has been able to ramp up players but getting them in situations where they are to win.

I think Van Ness is a top-12 player in this class personally. I consider 18 to kind of be falling. He's a redshirt sophomore so I agree he's inexperienced, but I also think he's as strong as it gets, and sort of got shuffled around based on what Iowa needed him to do, as he played mostly DT in 2021, and mostly DE last year. I think he's an NFL DE, unless he puts on 15 more pounds or so.

He had 46 pressures and 9 sacks in the Big Ten (the conference that has half of the OL projected in the 1st 3 rounds) and I think he's just scratching the surface.

I agree Simpson>Campbell for the ceiling, but I also had him and Henley going ahead of Campbell. I think OL and maybe another CB are more FA moves. The Lions have the 11th most cap space currently, and can free up 10 million cutting Brockers, and 6.5 with Vaitai, though I could see Vaitai restructuring.

 

[Faust]

Darnell Washington?​

 

[-OZ-]

At this point, Paris Johnson at 11 to the titans is such an obvious, Chalk pick that I’m starting to doubt that it happens. I’m okay with Boutte in the second although I would prefer Avila or even Gibbs - although Gibbs would be a Luxury pick they probably can’t afford right now and RB2 isn’t a real need.

 

[travdogg]

At this point, Paris Johnson at 11 to the titans is such an obvious, Chalk pick that I’m starting to doubt that it happens. I’m okay with Boutte in the second although I would prefer Avila or even Gibbs - although Gibbs would be a Luxury pick they probably can’t afford right now and RB2 isn’t a real need.

I could see Paris Johnson going to Atlanta at #8 if McGary gets let go, but if he's there for the Titans, I think its a tough pass.

If Quentin Johnston fell, I wonder if he'd be the pick at #11, though he'd have to get past Carolina at #9 as well, I'm confident the Eagles wouldn't take him at #10.

 

[travdogg]

Darnell Washington?​

I think he's a 3rd round guy, and behind the other 4 TEs. I think he would have been a higher pick 20 years ago, but TE's who are blockers 1st, just aren't big priorities. While his straight-line speed is likely to be impressive for his size (4.6 is rumored) I think his lateral agility and ability to run routes is highly in question. The mocks where he goes ahead of Dalton Kincaid have me wondering if those people have watched both of them.

 

[travdogg]

Right now, I think the 5 most overrated prospects are: Kelee Ringo, Cam Smith, Jalin Hyatt, Drew Sanders, and Darnell Washington.

I think the 5 most underrated are: Calijah Kancey, Andre Carter, Tanner McKee, Deonte Banks, and Daiyan Henley.

 

[Tau837]

Good post, thanks for the effort you put into it. I'm a Chargers fan, so will comment on your picks for them.

First, the Chargers are in a bad cap situation right now. I wrote a detailed post about it here: 2023 Roster Thoughts - Entering Offseason.

Due to that cap situation, it seems likely they will be limited in free agency, including their internal free agents. IMO their targets with their early picks, especially their first round pick, will be partly dictated by their cap-related decisions.

21. Chargers=Broderick Jones OT Georgia, raw talent who may have been a top-5 pick in 2024, but has only 1 year of starting. That said, Chargers have needed a RT forever. I know many Chargers fans want a big play WR, but I think this is a better investment.

I expect the Chargers will prioritize re-signing their incumbent RT, Trey Pipkins. He finally showed some quality play in 2022, his 4th season, despite playing through a MCL injury most of the season. The current Chargers front office drafted him as a third round project in 2019, so I expect they will view it as the project pick paying off and will want to keep him.

If they do not re-sign Pipkins, I agree that RT should be a top priority. If they do keep Pipkins, they could certainly still use another OT, but I'm skeptical they will use their first round pick on OL for the third season in a row.

Due to the terrible cap situation, many feel that the Chargers are likely to trade or release Keenan Allen. I don't think they should do that as I wrote here: Chargers 2023 Roster Thoughts: WR Keenan Allen.

As of right now, if Allen is traded or released, the team will only have two final roster worthy WRs remaining: Mike Williams, who cannot be counted on to stay healthy, and Josh Palmer. In that situation and especially if Pipkins is re-signed, I think the Chargers will very likely draft a WR in the first, if there is a WR available they like.

If Pipkins is re-signed and Allen remains on the roster, it enables a BPA pick. In that case, I could see OL, DL, WR, TE, or DB. Hopefully not a RB or LB.

54. Chargers=Tuli Tuipulotu DE USC, a bit raw and a bit of a tweener, probably likely to play more inside than out at 6-4 290. Had 13 sacks on 56 pressures last season. Only 20 so nowhere near finished product.

I could see this, since IMO it never hurts to draft OL and/or DL early. The team signed 4 free agent IDL players and drafted another last year. Three of them ended up on IR and at least two of them will return, which could cause the Chargers to prioritize other position groups here. However, Morgan Fox was only signed to a 1 year deal and played great, so I expect he will be too expensive to re-sign and will be gone. That creates a hole the team could address here.

I could also see OL, WR, TE, DB, or LB here, but no double ups (i.e., if they draft WR in the first, I don't think that position is in play in the second). I would remove LB from this list if the team re-signs ILB Tranquill, but I'm skeptical they can afford to do that given the cap situation.

 

[travdogg]

Good post, thanks for the effort you put into it. I'm a Chargers fan, so will comment on your picks for them.

First, the Chargers are in a bad cap situation right now. I wrote a detailed post about it here: 2023 Roster Thoughts - Entering Offseason.

Due to that cap situation, it seems likely they will be limited in free agency, including their internal free agents. IMO their targets with their early picks, especially their first round pick, will be partly dictated by their cap-related decisions.

21. Chargers=Broderick Jones OT Georgia, raw talent who may have been a top-5 pick in 2024, but has only 1 year of starting. That said, Chargers have needed a RT forever. I know many Chargers fans want a big play WR, but I think this is a better investment.

I expect the Chargers will prioritize re-signing their incumbent RT, Trey Pipkins. He finally showed some quality play in 2022, his 4th season, despite playing through a MCL injury most of the season. The current Chargers front office drafted him as a third round project in 2019, so I expect they will view it as the project pick paying off and will want to keep him.

If they do not re-sign Pipkins, I agree that RT should be a top priority. If they do keep Pipkins, they could certainly still use another OT, but I'm skeptical they will use their first round pick on OL for the third season in a row if Pipkins is re-signed.

Due to the terrible cap situation, many feel that the Chargers are likely to trade or release Keenan Allen. I don't think they should do that as I wrote here: Chargers 2023 Roster Thoughts: WR Keenan Allen.

As of right now, if Allen is traded or released, the team will only have two final roster worthy WRs remaining: Mike Williams, who cannot be counted on to stay healthy, and Josh Palmer. In that situation and especially if Pipkins is re-signed, I think the Chargers will very likely draft a WR in the first, if there is a WR available they like.

If Pipkins is re-signed and Allen remains on the roster, it enables a BPA pick. In that case, I could see OL, DL, WR, TE, or DB. Hopefully not a RB or LB.

54. Chargers=Tuli Tuipulotu DE USC, a bit raw and a bit of a tweener, probably likely to play more inside than out at 6-4 290. Had 13 sacks on 56 pressures last season. Only 20 so nowhere near finished product.

I could see this, since IMO it never hurt to draft OL and/or DL early. The team signed 4 free agent IDL players and drafted another last year. Three of them ended up on IR and at least two of them will return, which could cause the Chargers to prioritize other position groups here. However, Morgan Fox was only signed to a 1 year deal and played great, so I expect he will be too expensive to re-sign and will be gone. That creates a hole the team could address here.

I could also see OL, WR, TE, DB, or LB here, but no double ups (i.e., if they draft WR in the first, I don't think that position is in play in the second). I would remove LB from this list if the team re-signs ILB Tranquill, but I'm skeptical they can afford to do that given the cap situation.

Yeah, Chargers are in a weird spot with the cap, where they need to clear a good amount of money, and the main 2 guys who would do so are Khalil Mack and Keenan Allen, and it'd likely be a mistake do dump either.

I think the Chargers could dump Matt Feiler and Michael Davis, but that still leaves them short. I know you've argued for a Keenan Allen restructure, perhaps Khalil Mack would be open to something like that too.

That's assuming they keep Herbert on his rookie deal and don't try to maybe get ahead of the market re-signing him.

 

[Tau837]

Good post, thanks for the effort you put into it. I'm a Chargers fan, so will comment on your picks for them.

First, the Chargers are in a bad cap situation right now. I wrote a detailed post about it here: 2023 Roster Thoughts - Entering Offseason.

Due to that cap situation, it seems likely they will be limited in free agency, including their internal free agents. IMO their targets with their early picks, especially their first round pick, will be partly dictated by their cap-related decisions.

21. Chargers=Broderick Jones OT Georgia, raw talent who may have been a top-5 pick in 2024, but has only 1 year of starting. That said, Chargers have needed a RT forever. I know many Chargers fans want a big play WR, but I think this is a better investment.

I expect the Chargers will prioritize re-signing their incumbent RT, Trey Pipkins. He finally showed some quality play in 2022, his 4th season, despite playing through a MCL injury most of the season. The current Chargers front office drafted him as a third round project in 2019, so I expect they will view it as the project pick paying off and will want to keep him.

If they do not re-sign Pipkins, I agree that RT should be a top priority. If they do keep Pipkins, they could certainly still use another OT, but I'm skeptical they will use their first round pick on OL for the third season in a row if Pipkins is re-signed.

Due to the terrible cap situation, many feel that the Chargers are likely to trade or release Keenan Allen. I don't think they should do that as I wrote here: Chargers 2023 Roster Thoughts: WR Keenan Allen.

As of right now, if Allen is traded or released, the team will only have two final roster worthy WRs remaining: Mike Williams, who cannot be counted on to stay healthy, and Josh Palmer. In that situation and especially if Pipkins is re-signed, I think the Chargers will very likely draft a WR in the first, if there is a WR available they like.

If Pipkins is re-signed and Allen remains on the roster, it enables a BPA pick. In that case, I could see OL, DL, WR, TE, or DB. Hopefully not a RB or LB.

54. Chargers=Tuli Tuipulotu DE USC, a bit raw and a bit of a tweener, probably likely to play more inside than out at 6-4 290. Had 13 sacks on 56 pressures last season. Only 20 so nowhere near finished product.

I could see this, since IMO it never hurt to draft OL and/or DL early. The team signed 4 free agent IDL players and drafted another last year. Three of them ended up on IR and at least two of them will return, which could cause the Chargers to prioritize other position groups here. However, Morgan Fox was only signed to a 1 year deal and played great, so I expect he will be too expensive to re-sign and will be gone. That creates a hole the team could address here.

I could also see OL, WR, TE, DB, or LB here, but no double ups (i.e., if they draft WR in the first, I don't think that position is in play in the second). I would remove LB from this list if the team re-signs ILB Tranquill, but I'm skeptical they can afford to do that given the cap situation.

Yeah, Chargers are in a weird spot with the cap, where they need to clear a good amount of money, and the main 2 guys who would do so are Khalil Mack and Keenan Allen, and it'd likely be a mistake do dump either.

I think the Chargers could dump Matt Feiler and Michael Davis, but that still leaves them short. I know you've argued for a Keenan Allen restructure, perhaps Khalil Mack would be open to something like that too.

That's assuming they keep Herbert on his rookie deal and don't try to maybe get ahead of the market re-signing him.

The Chargers front office really kind of boxed themselves in when they signed both Mike Williams and Derwin James to big contracts last offseason. This was very foreseeable and was a reason I was not in favor or re-signing Williams. And, once they did that, I thought they should seriously consider not signing James to a big contract. They did both and now have to deal with the fallout.

I definitely think Feiler will be released.

I thought before the season that Davis was also a lock to be released, but I have reversed on that because (a) he had a career season and was the one of the best defensive players on the Chargers this season and (b) who knows if or when Jackson will be able to come back from his injury and play up to CB1 level? While they could use the cap space, he is a bargain for a $9.4M cap hit in 2023, which ranks #23 among corners today and will surely fall down those rankings after free agency. IMO he is a candidate for a 2-3 contract extension, reducing his 2023 cap hit in the process.

I think restructuring Mack would require giving him a contract extension, and that is dicey IMO given his age and price.

I actually think it is arguably their best move to trade Bosa. He is a great player but (a) is their highest paid player, (b) has had injury issues, and (c) melted down in their playoff game, which really hurt the team. Despite those things, I would expect there would be a strong market for him, and his contract would be a bargain for a trade partner, since the Chargers would eat the amortized bonus money. My guess is they could get at least a first round pick, probably more. All that said, it would surprise me.

Back to the point of the thread, I forgot to mention in my previous post that the Chargers front office has really prioritized Senior Bowl players in the past. I haven't paid attention to Senior Bowl prospects this year, but it is likely one or more of their early draft picks participated in that event.

 

[travdogg]

Good post, thanks for the effort you put into it. I'm a Chargers fan, so will comment on your picks for them.

First, the Chargers are in a bad cap situation right now. I wrote a detailed post about it here: 2023 Roster Thoughts - Entering Offseason.

Due to that cap situation, it seems likely they will be limited in free agency, including their internal free agents. IMO their targets with their early picks, especially their first round pick, will be partly dictated by their cap-related decisions.

21. Chargers=Broderick Jones OT Georgia, raw talent who may have been a top-5 pick in 2024, but has only 1 year of starting. That said, Chargers have needed a RT forever. I know many Chargers fans want a big play WR, but I think this is a better investment.

I expect the Chargers will prioritize re-signing their incumbent RT, Trey Pipkins. He finally showed some quality play in 2022, his 4th season, despite playing through a MCL injury most of the season. The current Chargers front office drafted him as a third round project in 2019, so I expect they will view it as the project pick paying off and will want to keep him.

If they do not re-sign Pipkins, I agree that RT should be a top priority. If they do keep Pipkins, they could certainly still use another OT, but I'm skeptical they will use their first round pick on OL for the third season in a row if Pipkins is re-signed.

Due to the terrible cap situation, many feel that the Chargers are likely to trade or release Keenan Allen. I don't think they should do that as I wrote here: Chargers 2023 Roster Thoughts: WR Keenan Allen.

As of right now, if Allen is traded or released, the team will only have two final roster worthy WRs remaining: Mike Williams, who cannot be counted on to stay healthy, and Josh Palmer. In that situation and especially if Pipkins is re-signed, I think the Chargers will very likely draft a WR in the first, if there is a WR available they like.

If Pipkins is re-signed and Allen remains on the roster, it enables a BPA pick. In that case, I could see OL, DL, WR, TE, or DB. Hopefully not a RB or LB.

54. Chargers=Tuli Tuipulotu DE USC, a bit raw and a bit of a tweener, probably likely to play more inside than out at 6-4 290. Had 13 sacks on 56 pressures last season. Only 20 so nowhere near finished product.

I could see this, since IMO it never hurt to draft OL and/or DL early. The team signed 4 free agent IDL players and drafted another last year. Three of them ended up on IR and at least two of them will return, which could cause the Chargers to prioritize other position groups here. However, Morgan Fox was only signed to a 1 year deal and played great, so I expect he will be too expensive to re-sign and will be gone. That creates a hole the team could address here.

I could also see OL, WR, TE, DB, or LB here, but no double ups (i.e., if they draft WR in the first, I don't think that position is in play in the second). I would remove LB from this list if the team re-signs ILB Tranquill, but I'm skeptical they can afford to do that given the cap situation.

Yeah, Chargers are in a weird spot with the cap, where they need to clear a good amount of money, and the main 2 guys who would do so are Khalil Mack and Keenan Allen, and it'd likely be a mistake do dump either.

I think the Chargers could dump Matt Feiler and Michael Davis, but that still leaves them short. I know you've argued for a Keenan Allen restructure, perhaps Khalil Mack would be open to something like that too.

That's assuming they keep Herbert on his rookie deal and don't try to maybe get ahead of the market re-signing him.

The Chargers front office really kind of boxed themselves in when they signed both Mike Williams and Derwin James to big contracts last offseason. This was very foreseeable and was a reason I was not in favor or re-signing Williams. And, once they did that, I thought they should seriously consider not signing James to a big contract. They did both and now have to deal with the fallout.

I definitely think Feiler will be released.

I thought before the season that Davis was also a lock to be released, but I have reversed on that because (a) he had a career season and was the one of the best defensive players on the Chargers this season and (b) who knows if or when Jackson will be able to come back from his injury and play up to CB1 level? While they could use the cap space, he is a bargain for a $9.4M cap hit in 2023, which ranks #23 among corners today and will surely fall down those rankings after free agency. IMO he is a candidate for a 2-3 contract extension, reducing his 2023 cap hit in the process.

I think restructuring Mack would require giving him a contract extension, and that is dicey IMO given his age and price.

I actually think it is arguably their best move to trade Bosa. He is a great player but (a) is their highest paid player, (b) has had injury issues, and (c) melted down in their playoff game, which really hurt the team. Despite those things, I would expect there would be a strong market for him, and his contract would be a bargain for a trade partner, since the Chargers would eat the amortized bonus money. My guess is they could get at least a first round pick, probably more. All that said, it would surprise me.

Back to the point of the thread, I forgot to mention in my previous post that the Chargers front office has really prioritized Senior Bowl players in the past. I haven't paid attention to Senior Bowl prospects this year, but it is likely one or more of their early draft picks participated in that event.

Neither of the guys I mocked were Senior Bowl guys. Among guys who were I think could be fits would be Andre Carter or Adetomiwa Adebawore.

Trading Bosa would be interesting, and extremely bold. I would think they could easily get a 1st and 2nd for him. Maybe even 2 1sts from a team picking later in the draft that has cap space and might get put over the top with an edge rusher upgrade. Bengals, 45 million in cap space if/when they cut Boyd? Ravens, If Lamar doesn't have a huge 2023 hit?

I didn't really like the Williams re-signing either. 2021 felt a little like a contract push year, and he's never really shown the ability to be a true #1. Didn't like the JC Jackson signing either, pretty low hit rate for Belichick DBs on new teams.

 

[travdogg]

Couple random 1st round draft related thoughts team by team, looking at potential trade options and such.

Arizona: I think they really want to move down and acquire as many picks as possible. This is a long term rebuild, and when I say move down, I don't mean they even have to stay in the top-15. I could see them trading down with say Washington and being happy taking someone like Van Ness there.

Atlanta: If they aren't sold on Ridder, I think they could be a team that looks to move ahead of Indy, especially as the NFC South is wide open, and honestly, they are probably the best team in it with even average QB play. I think Stroud would be a good fit for Arthur Smith's offense.

Baltimore: I do wonder if they might trade up for a WR. I gave them Flowers, but I think the guy who'd really be a fit would be Addison.

Buffalo: I think RT is a big weakness of theirs, and I do wonder if their offense wouldn't best be served by a trade up for someone like Paris Johnson. Especially if they can work a deal along the lines of the Vikings/Lions deal for Jameson last year.

Carolina: I was really torn between Branch and Gonzalez and I still am not really sure which would be the better pick for the Panthers.

Chicago: Ideally, they trade with Indy and Houston goes QB, and Will Anderson goes at #4.

Cincinnati: While I didn't have them taking an OL in the 1st 2 picks, I think that is still the biggest need, as last offseasons plan didn't really work. A trade up for a guy like Skoronski would be ideal.

Dallas: While I gave them Bijan on the basis of, how can Jerry resist? I think an even more appealing idea, would be to move up for Quentin Johnston.

Detroit: I'd be really tempted to maybe move up to #3 (especially if just the Vikings #2 would do it) to pair up Hutchinson with Will Anderson. I'd also be interested in maybe going WR if the right guy made it to 18. Especially if it was Addison. A St. Brown/Jameson/Addison trio would look awfully close to the Kupp/Cooks/Woods trio, but with even more upside.

Green Bay: Personally, I'd want to keep Rodgers. I think GB had some bad luck, and the Vikings had some incredible luck, and I think that division is pretty wide open. Of all the picks in the mock I made, I really love Skoronski to GB, maybe he'll make it to #15.

Houston: I have nothing to base this on, other than some flimsy logic based on Caserio's previous employer. But, if the Texans don't bring in a veteran QB, I do wonder of CJ Stroud wouldn't be the top QB on their board. I think Houston more than most would be worried about Young's size. I also wonder if the Texans would be willing to move up from #12 to insure they get a QB and a difference maker on defense, of at least Tyree Wilson level if the QB came first.

Indianapolis: If they don't move up to #1, I really think they may just not take a QB. FA wil probably be the indicator, maybe this is a Carr/Jimmy G spot? In that scenario, I wonder if they could trade down to someone in that 8-12 range, and maybe take say Christian Gonzalez to really super charge that secondary.

Jacksonville: I saw a blurb about them wanting to retain Jawaan Taylor at roughly 15 million per year, and my head spun. That guy shouldn't be an NFL starter for any team, let alone making even 30% of that much. Hopefully for Jags fans that was just something Taylor's agent put out. In an ideal world, I think Broderick Jones would fall to #24 and help upgrade the blocking, which was still pretty meh last year.

Kansas City: I really like OL for them, but I wonder if Harrison would still be the pick if Torrence fell there. In theory LG-RG are set for KC, but it never hurts a top SB team to plan ahead for big contracts or high-end depth.

Las Vegas: It'll be tough to pass on Stroud if he makes it to #7, but if he doesn't, I'm not sure they go QB. I think CB, especially Joey Porter would be an interesting option for them.

LA Chargers: I see a lot of WR talk, and if Allen gets cut, it'll certainly be on the table, but if they don't cut Allen and still want to make Herbert's life easier without going OL, I wonder if Dalton Kincaid would be in the mix. Gerald Everett is fine, but he's not the difference maker Kincaid could be. I think Kincaid has a Mark Andrews level ceiling.

Minnesota: I had Deonte Banks as a secondary upgrade, but if the Vikes got aggressive, I think a move up for Brian Branch would be very interesting, as a slot/S ala Tyrann Mathieu, who I think Flores could get very creative with.

New England: While I doubt they could get him without a trade up, I would love to see Devin Witherspoon in a Belichick defense.

New Orleans: The Saints OL has been slowly hemorrhaging talent, and or just not panning out. I think that's another spot where Broderick Jones would make sense if he's there, or with a small trade up, which NO has never shied away from. Penning would then move to G, where he may be better suited anyway.

NY Giants: If they made any move up, I'd want to see them move up for Paris Johnson, and move Evan Neal to G. Assuming they can keep Jones/Barkley and add something at WR in FA.

NY Jets: If they can't get Rodgers, I wonder how aggressive they'd be. Maybe giving up 3 1sts to move to #1 for Bryce Young? I think they feel like they are a Super Bowl contender everywhere but QB.

Philadelphia: Bijan Robinson at #10, its not what I'd do, but would a team that has no major holes make a luxury pick like that? I feel like his run/pass skills would make the offense even harder to defend. Also, if there isn't an edge there at #30, I think a guy like Henley would fill a need, especially as its unlikely TJ Edwards is brought back. I know LB is never a Roseman favorite, but again, how does a Super Bowl team with no real holes on the OL, WR, TE, or QB, really proceed?

Pittsburgh: I like Kancey for them, but I think the ideal pick would be Skoronski if he makes it that far. The trenches are pretty clearly their biggest holes.

Seattle: I mocked them for Levis, but in the event somebody falls in love with Levis, I wonder if they would go Richardson at #5? Same logic, that he sits behind Geno for a year, and Seattle more than maybe any team in the NFL, marches to the beat of their own drum on draft day (now that Gruden/Mayock are gone anyway.) Along those same lines, if a toolsy edge rusher isn't there at #20, I wonder if they'd add another pass catcher. A guy like Dalton Kincaid would be interesting there, as they like to use multiple TEs, and Fant doesn't seem like he's gonna get extended.

Tampa Bay: TB came down to 3 guys for me in round 1, Kincaid, Bijan, and Broderick Jones. I went with what I considered the biggest hole on the team, but positional value would argue Jones would be the best pick, and allow them to save almost 10 million moving on from Donovan Smith.

Tennessee: So, I went OL/WR with Paris and Boutte as I think those are the 2 biggest needs, but what if they viewed WR as the bigger hole. Would JSN be a worthy pick at #11 as a possession weapon opposite Burks more downfield plays?

Washington: I 100% refuse to believe they just roll with Sam Howell as their starting QB, and I say that as someone would had Howell as the QB2 in last year's draft. The question here is how aggressive do they get? I had them taking McKee in round 2, but what if Rivera (knowing he's in a make or break season) sells out and makes a Godfather offer (3 1sts+) to the Bears for the #1 pick and takes Bryce Young.

 

[Anarchy99]

The one player I have seen mocked all over the place is WR Zay Flowers. I've seen a few places slot him to NE at 14, while a couple other mocks I saw had him falling into the late second (and all points in between). I know the Patriots have a man crush on him, but I don't think they would take him that early. I also know they need two starting offensive tackles (but don't know if they are content to play the free agency game and wait to the middle rounds for other line help). Besides WR and OT, they need DB and LB help. For better or for worse (probably worse), I don't get the vibe that BB would take a WR in the Top 15.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Jack Campbell is a great two down linebacker and he's going to be a starter somewhere. I don't see the Lions taking a big backer though, he would just be an awful scheme fit. Trent Simpson makes way more sense here, or Daiyan Henley or DeMarvion Overshown like a round later. LB in the second that would run counter to Holmes penchant for finding devalued positions in latter rounds. The Lions do need an upgrade from Rodriguez & Barnes (not sure if AA returns) but they're far more likely to grab another CB or S here. LB at #81 might work though bc they'll be less quality DBs there.

LINK
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Kent Lee Platte
@MathBomb
A couple of Jack Campbell #RAS comparisons, depending on whether you think you can have him rushing the passer or keep him off the ball. He comps eerily similar to T.J. Watt and Leighton Vander Esch athletically.

 

[Brunell4MVP]

nice work.

IMO CJ Stroud is underrated, not overrated. I think he's getting a knock based on Haskins, Fields and other OSU QBs. The guy is a great pocket passer. And has the size not to get hurt. I can't figure out why he's not #1, but I certainly don't see him slidng past #2. If he's not taken by HOU, too many teams are wiling to trade up for a potential long term starter at QB.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Jack Campbell is a great two down linebacker and he's going to be a starter somewhere. I don't see the Lions taking a big backer though, he would just be an awful scheme fit. Trent Simpson makes way more sense here, or Daiyan Henley or DeMarvion Overshown like a round later. LB in the second that would run counter to Holmes penchant for finding devalued positions in latter rounds. The Lions do need an upgrade from Rodriguez & Barnes (not sure if AA returns) but they're far more likely to grab another CB or S here. LB at #81 might work though bc they'll be less quality DBs there.

LINK
-------
Kent Lee Platte
@MathBomb
A couple of Jack Campbell #RAS comparisons, depending on whether you think you can have him rushing the passer or keep him off the ball. He comps eerily similar to T.J. Watt and Leighton Vander Esch athletically.

he's a pass rusher now? lol I know, Kent's just say athletically.

I'm told the short shuttle is stickier than the 3-cone, he did great in both. the tape tells a different story but he had himself a great Combine.

 

[BobbyLayne]

nice work.

IMO CJ Stroud is underrated. I think he's getting a knock based on Haskins, Fields and other OSU QBs. The guy is a great pocket passer. I can't figure out why he's not #1, but I certainly don't see him slidng past #2. If he's not taken by HOU, too many teams are wiling to trade up for a potential long term starter at QB.

that Georgia game turned a lot of people in a positive way. still have to question why he never did it before (against a good defense I mean.)

 

[travdogg]

nice work.

IMO CJ Stroud is underrated, not overrated. I think he's getting a knock based on Haskins, Fields and other OSU QBs. The guy is a great pocket passer. And has the size not to get hurt. I can't figure out why he's not #1, but I certainly don't see him slidng past #2. If he's not taken by HOU, too many teams are wiling to trade up for a potential long term starter at QB.

I think Fields was a better prospect than Stroud is. Still have no idea how he fell to 11, he was a better prospect then Lance in every way.

It may not be fair to Stroud, but I keep coming back to his supporting cast. Most NFL teams have less talent around them than Stroud had. I mean, in the grand scheme of things, Jaxon Smith-Njigba might have been the 5th most talented WR Stroud played with. I just keep thinking back to Tua, throwing to Jeudy, DeVonta, Ruggs, Waddle, and Metchie, another WR group better than most NFL teams.

It makes Stroud's stats ring a little hollower to me. 66% comp, 9.5 YPA, 41-6 TD/INT, 177.7 rating vs Tua 71% comp, 11.3 YPA, 33-3 TD/INT, 206.7 rating.

Hell, Fields (with much less WR talent around him) had 67% comp, 9.2 YPA, 41-3 TD/INT, 181.4 rating.

I just think Stroud's ceiling isn't super high. I'm not seeing a Joe Burrow level prospect. I'm seeing someone more akin to Derek Carr. Now don't get me wrong, a 21 year old Carr on a rookie deal for 4/5 years would be very valuable, but I understand the appeal of the ceiling of others.

 

[Anarchy99]

nice work.

IMO CJ Stroud is underrated, not overrated. I think he's getting a knock based on Haskins, Fields and other OSU QBs. The guy is a great pocket passer. And has the size not to get hurt. I can't figure out why he's not #1, but I certainly don't see him slidng past #2. If he's not taken by HOU, too many teams are wiling to trade up for a potential long term starter at QB.

I think Fields was a better prospect than Stroud is. Still have no idea how he fell to 11, he was a better prospect then Lance in every way.

It may not be fair to Stroud, but I keep coming back to his supporting cast. Most NFL teams have less talent around them than Stroud had. I mean, in the grand scheme of things, Jaxon Smith-Njigba might have been the 5th most talented WR Stroud played with. I just keep thinking back to Tua, throwing to Jeudy, DeVonta, Ruggs, Waddle, and Metchie, another WR group better than most NFL teams.

It makes Stroud's stats ring a little hollower to me. 66% comp, 9.5 YPA, 41-6 TD/INT, 177.7 rating vs Tua 71% comp, 11.3 YPA, 33-3 TD/INT, 206.7 rating.

Hell, Fields (with much less WR talent around him) had 67% comp, 9.2 YPA, 41-3 TD/INT, 181.4 rating.

I just think Stroud's ceiling isn't super high. I'm not seeing a Joe Burrow level prospect. I'm seeing someone more akin to Derek Carr. Now don't get me wrong, a 21 year old Carr on a rookie deal for 4/5 years would be very valuable, but I understand the appeal of the ceiling of others.

Not to be a PITA, but how many Joe Burrow's are out there and how often do they come along? What is he these days? A top 3-5 NFL QB? College stats can be very misleading. Mac Jones clocked in at 77.4%, 11.2 YPA, 41-4 TD/INT, with a 203.1 rating his last year at Alabama (with 150 more attempts than Tua had). Burrow was at 76.3%, 10.8 YPA, 60-6 TD/INT, with a 202.0 rating his senior year at LSU. These days, is Jones anywhere near the level that Burrows is?

Stroud had the highest PER in D-I this season (for whatever that's worth). The only other players that ever scored a 190+ PER were Grayson McCall (207), Zach Wilson (196), Kaleb Eleby (195), Dustin Crum (192), Jalen Hurts (191), Kyler Murray (199), Baker Mayfield (198 + 196), and Russell Wilson (191).

The point being, it's hard to end up with a multiple year All Pro / Pro Bowl QB in the draft (named Burrow or something else). I would guess that most drafts finding a Derek Carr is no easy task. Of all QBs drafted since 2006, Carr ranks 10th in passing yards (and should pass guys like Cam, Dalton, Flacco, and Cutler in short order). More recent guys will most likely pass Carr by eventually, but he did pretty well for what wasn't that great a stretch of QBs.

 

[travdogg]

nice work.

IMO CJ Stroud is underrated, not overrated. I think he's getting a knock based on Haskins, Fields and other OSU QBs. The guy is a great pocket passer. And has the size not to get hurt. I can't figure out why he's not #1, but I certainly don't see him slidng past #2. If he's not taken by HOU, too many teams are wiling to trade up for a potential long term starter at QB.

I think Fields was a better prospect than Stroud is. Still have no idea how he fell to 11, he was a better prospect then Lance in every way.

It may not be fair to Stroud, but I keep coming back to his supporting cast. Most NFL teams have less talent around them than Stroud had. I mean, in the grand scheme of things, Jaxon Smith-Njigba might have been the 5th most talented WR Stroud played with. I just keep thinking back to Tua, throwing to Jeudy, DeVonta, Ruggs, Waddle, and Metchie, another WR group better than most NFL teams.

It makes Stroud's stats ring a little hollower to me. 66% comp, 9.5 YPA, 41-6 TD/INT, 177.7 rating vs Tua 71% comp, 11.3 YPA, 33-3 TD/INT, 206.7 rating.

Hell, Fields (with much less WR talent around him) had 67% comp, 9.2 YPA, 41-3 TD/INT, 181.4 rating.

I just think Stroud's ceiling isn't super high. I'm not seeing a Joe Burrow level prospect. I'm seeing someone more akin to Derek Carr. Now don't get me wrong, a 21 year old Carr on a rookie deal for 4/5 years would be very valuable, but I understand the appeal of the ceiling of others.

Not to be a PITA, but how many Joe Burrow's are out there and how often do they come along? What is he these days? A top 3-5 NFL QB? College stats can be very misleading. Mac Jones clocked in at 77.4%, 11.2 YPA, 41-4 TD/INT, with a 203.1 rating his last year at Alabama (with 150 more attempts than Tua had). Burrow was at 76.3%, 10.8 YPA, 60-6 TD/INT, with a 202.0 rating his senior year at LSU. These days, is Jones anywhere near the level that Burrows is?

Stroud had the highest PER in D-I this season (for whatever that's worth). The only other players that ever scored a 190+ PER were Grayson McCall (207), Zach Wilson (196), Kaleb Eleby (195), Dustin Crum (192), Jalen Hurts (191), Kyler Murray (199), Baker Mayfield (198 + 196), and Russell Wilson (191).

The point being, it's hard to end up with a multiple year All Pro / Pro Bowl QB in the draft (named Burrow or something else). I would guess that most drafts finding a Derek Carr is no easy task. Of all QBs drafted since 2006, Carr ranks 10th in passing yards (and should pass guys like Cam, Dalton, Flacco, and Cutler in short order). More recent guys will most likely pass Carr by eventually, but he did pretty well for what wasn't that great a stretch of QBs.

I didn't mean that to be saying that Carr sucked or anything like that. My exact wording was a 21 year old Carr on a rookie deal would be very valuable.

I agree college stats can be and often are very misleading. I just brought it up because its usually at the forefront of every Stroud argument. Which is why I was highlighting guys who had even better college numbers recently. I wasn't in any way making the argument that college stats are an auto indicator of NFL ability. I used Tua because I think he's a similar talent as Stroud and played in a similar situation. Personally though, I liked Tua more as a prospect than Stroud, or any QB in this class besides Young.

I would call Joe Burrow the 3rd best QB in the NFL behind only Allen and Mahomes, and yes, those are very rare. However, I felt Burrow always had that ceiling. I haven't been surprised by how good Burrow is, though obviously it would have been irresponsible for anyone to predict it as anything more than in the range of outcomes.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

nice work.

IMO CJ Stroud is underrated, not overrated. I think he's getting a knock based on Haskins, Fields and other OSU QBs. The guy is a great pocket passer. And has the size not to get hurt. I can't figure out why he's not #1, but I certainly don't see him slidng past #2. If he's not taken by HOU, too many teams are wiling to trade up for a potential long term starter at QB.

Count me in as he's the clear No 1 if you need a QB, not sure what others see when they watch him. He was pretty darn good vs the better competition and that matters at the next level.
Well said

 

[travdogg]

nice work.

IMO CJ Stroud is underrated, not overrated. I think he's getting a knock based on Haskins, Fields and other OSU QBs. The guy is a great pocket passer. And has the size not to get hurt. I can't figure out why he's not #1, but I certainly don't see him slidng past #2. If he's not taken by HOU, too many teams are wiling to trade up for a potential long term starter at QB.

Count me in as he's the clear No 1 if you need a QB, not sure what others see when they watch him. He was pretty darn good vs the better competition and that matters at the next level.
Well said

That's how I feel about Bryce Young.

Other than height, and a slight accuracy advantage, I think Young trounces Stroud everywhere else. Arm strength, mobility, creativity, pocket presence, reaction to pressure all favor Young pretty heavily.

I feel like people are looking at it like its a carnival, and there is a "you must be this tall to play QB" sign.

 

[Brunell4MVP]

College QB stats are kinda meaningless IMO. Young and Stroud had awesomeness around them. They played quality opponents. Stroud lost to Mich. Young lost to UGA. Doesn't really matter. The question is can they throw the ball in the NFL and can they process schemes and defenses. I don't think size matters. Brees is like 5'10" and he was fine. A GM has to guess how they will do at the next level. And it is a guess. Maybe both will be awesome. Maybe both will suck. I'd go with Stroud, you'd go with Young, and some GM out there will go with Levis. And we'll all probably be wrong when Antony Richardson is winning a SB

To me it's more important to draft QBs each year until you get the right one. I think it's a game of numbers and having a good coaching staff in place.