Thoughts on John Carlson (1 Viewer)

[timschochet]

Everyone's talking up Rosario, but the waiver wire TE who might have a more promising future is John Carlson on Seattle. 4 catches for 52 yards last week, and now that Burlson is out for the year, perhaps they'll use the TE more on offense. Thoughts?

 

[msommer]

Engram should be coming back soon and while he might not stretch the field as Burleson should have he will surely get his fill of the receptions in SEA.

Does SEA need the TE to stay in and block as well? If so they might want to not go with a rookie.

 

[tombonneau]

FWIW, FBG prelims have him in the top 10. Ahead of other WW TE darlings Fasano & Rosario. I was a bit surprised. I've been eying Carlson, but it's very rare that a rookie TE comes along and produces.

I'm debating picking him up and dropping Zack Miller, whose potential I like, but the Oak passing game is just blech ...

 

[moderated]

He's a very good TE and a lot better receiving TE then his college stats make it look. He was held in to block most of the time at ND because they were a bad/horrendous football team and needed extra help to protect the QB.

The downside for FF is that he is a great blocker, so he likely isn't going to ever play a hybrid Gates/Gonzo/etc kind of role. That said he can become a year in year out top 10 Fantasy TE, just likely not a top 3 kind of guy.

 

[tombonneau]

Doing some research and on a Seattle Post-Intelligencer blog, it was reported that when someone asked Hass what he would do if Burleson was out any extended period of time the first thing he mentioned was Carlson:

http://blog.seattletimes.nwsource.com/brew...xxxxxxxxxx.html

Also, expect to see the Seahawks to throw to the tight end a lot more. Rookie John Carlson looked good Sunday, and when Hasselbeck was asked Sunday what he would do if Burleson were out an extended period, he first mentioned throwing to Carlson.

The fact his new TE is the very first thing that popped into Hasslebeck's head speaks volumes to me.This on top of some preseason stuff I was reading where Holgrem is basically swooning over Carlson and how he finally found a TE that will fit his system and thinks he'll be a player for a long time, makes me really like Carlson as a sneaky pickup.

Of course, the Hawks being down to no WRs helps as well ... I think I'm going to grab him ...

 

[BigSteelThrill]

My thoughts.

In a big league Im in... Im oddly deep at TE and I have found myself reluctant to trade him for the LB help I need.

Never did I think that was possible, but he could prove to the best of the bunch by years end. He has a high ceiling.

 

[the rover]

This offense does not really favor tight ends. Yes, they have a bunch of injuries, but I don't think they're going to change their whole offense around to get them through a couple weeks until after the bye. In 5 years, Jerramy Stevens' best season was 45/554/5, and that was 200 yards better than his next best season. Last year Pollard went 28/273/2 in 14 games.

Next year under a different coach, things may change, but I wouldn't expect big things this year. Bye week filler at best.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

This offense does not really favor tight ends. Yes, they have a bunch of injuries, but I don't think they're going to change their whole offense around to get them through a couple weeks until after the bye. In 5 years, Jerramy Stevens' best season was 45/554/5, and that was 200 yards better than his next best season. Last year Pollard went 28/273/2 in 14 games.

Next year under a different coach, things may change, but I wouldn't expect big things this year. Bye week filler at best.

Stevens was never very good. Pollard was way worse. They always had other solid targets and Shaun when Stevens were there.

Its not remotely comparable.

The offense, coaches and quarterback are highly capable. They use what works.

 

[tombonneau]

This offense does not really favor tight ends. Yes, they have a bunch of injuries, but I don't think they're going to change their whole offense around to get them through a couple weeks until after the bye. In 5 years, Jerramy Stevens' best season was 45/554/5, and that was 200 yards better than his next best season. Last year Pollard went 28/273/2 in 14 games.

Next year under a different coach, things may change, but I wouldn't expect big things this year. Bye week filler at best.

Stevens was never very good. Pollard was way worse. They always had other solid targets and Shaun when Stevens were there.

Its not remotely comparable.

The offense, coaches and quarterback are highly capable. They use what works.

You're exactly right BST. Here is the article I was referencing earlier about Holmgren loving Carlson. The Walrus's offense favors the TE, he just hasn't had anyone worthwhile at the position in Seattle. But they might finally have their man in Carlson.This is from the incomparable National Football Post:

FROM DANNY O’NEIL OF THE SEATTLE TIMES… Carlson didn’t have the luxury of being some wide-eyed rookie. He was the player Seattle picked to be its starting tight end, and Holmgren warned him the learning curve was going to be steep. “We’re going to throw him into the frying pan, I believe is what I said,” Holmgren said. Sure enough, Holmgren spent a good chunk of training camp standing on the accelerator to get Carlson up to speed. Some of it was the player. Holmgren was sold on Carlson heading into the draft, and believed he was the most NFL-ready tight end available, which is why the Seahawks traded away their third-round pick for the privilege of picking him early in the second round. Some of it was the position, too. Tight ends tend to thrive in Holmgren’s offense, or at least they did before he came to Seattle. Guys like Brent Jones and Mark Chmura became Pro Bowlers, but Holmgren’s 10-year tenure with the Seahawks has amounted to a decade long search for a consistent producer at that position. Can Carlson be that guy? “He’s one of those guys that’s going to be a good player in the league for a long time,” Holmgren said. “And he should be. And that’s the way he has been going.”

I think Carlson is going to be a star and I know my man Joe Fortenbaugh has been screaming to me how good Carlson will be this year. In fact, everyone that I know and advise in fantasy football has Carlson on their team. Mike Holmgren knows how to use a tight end (Zorn must have missed this section of the Seattle playbook based on his attempts to get the ball to one of his best players Chris Cooley) and Carlson is the best tight end he has had since Chmura. I expect big things from him and will give Joey “the tipper” Fortenbaugh full credit.

 

[Mogame]

I drafted him in all of my deeper leagues, and picked him up in the shallower 12-teamers, once I heard Burleson was on the shelf. I love his TE2 upside.

 

[the rover]

This offense does not really favor tight ends. Yes, they have a bunch of injuries, but I don't think they're going to change their whole offense around to get them through a couple weeks until after the bye. In 5 years, Jerramy Stevens' best season was 45/554/5, and that was 200 yards better than his next best season. Last year Pollard went 28/273/2 in 14 games.

Next year under a different coach, things may change, but I wouldn't expect big things this year. Bye week filler at best.

Stevens was never very good. Pollard was way worse. They always had other solid targets and Shaun when Stevens were there.

Its not remotely comparable.

The offense, coaches and quarterback are highly capable. They use what works.

There's 16 years of data for TEs under Holmgren. If you want to believe that he's going to suddenly use his TE differently, great. I think it's pretty clear what the ceiling is, as well as what a reasonable expectation is.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

This offense does not really favor tight ends. Yes, they have a bunch of injuries, but I don't think they're going to change their whole offense around to get them through a couple weeks until after the bye. In 5 years, Jerramy Stevens' best season was 45/554/5, and that was 200 yards better than his next best season. Last year Pollard went 28/273/2 in 14 games.

Next year under a different coach, things may change, but I wouldn't expect big things this year. Bye week filler at best.

Stevens was never very good. Pollard was way worse. They always had other solid targets and Shaun when Stevens were there.

Its not remotely comparable.

The offense, coaches and quarterback are highly capable. They use what works.

There's 16 years of data for TEs under Holmgren. If you want to believe that he's going to suddenly use his TE differently, great. I think it's pretty clear what the ceiling is, as well as what a reasonable expectation is.

The other data (not presented) may prove your point.But you used Stevens and Pollard in Seattle, which do not.

 

[the rover]

This offense does not really favor tight ends. Yes, they have a bunch of injuries, but I don't think they're going to change their whole offense around to get them through a couple weeks until after the bye. In 5 years, Jerramy Stevens' best season was 45/554/5, and that was 200 yards better than his next best season. Last year Pollard went 28/273/2 in 14 games.

Next year under a different coach, things may change, but I wouldn't expect big things this year. Bye week filler at best.

Stevens was never very good. Pollard was way worse. They always had other solid targets and Shaun when Stevens were there.

Its not remotely comparable.

The offense, coaches and quarterback are highly capable. They use what works.

There's 16 years of data for TEs under Holmgren. If you want to believe that he's going to suddenly use his TE differently, great. I think it's pretty clear what the ceiling is, as well as what a reasonable expectation is.

The other data (not presented) may prove your point.But you used Stevens and Pollard in Seattle, which do not.

Stevens was his TE for 5 years. When you go with the same guy for 5 years out of a 16 year run, it becomes the norm, not an aberration. Stevens' production is very consistent with the rest of his TE play. Chumura's best year was better than Stevens' best, but most of them looked more like that one. Some were worse. Jackie Harris had a nice year once.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

This offense does not really favor tight ends. Yes, they have a bunch of injuries, but I don't think they're going to change their whole offense around to get them through a couple weeks until after the bye. In 5 years, Jerramy Stevens' best season was 45/554/5, and that was 200 yards better than his next best season. Last year Pollard went 28/273/2 in 14 games.

Next year under a different coach, things may change, but I wouldn't expect big things this year. Bye week filler at best.

Stevens was never very good. Pollard was way worse. They always had other solid targets and Shaun when Stevens were there.

Its not remotely comparable.

The offense, coaches and quarterback are highly capable. They use what works.

There's 16 years of data for TEs under Holmgren. If you want to believe that he's going to suddenly use his TE differently, great. I think it's pretty clear what the ceiling is, as well as what a reasonable expectation is.

The other data (not presented) may prove your point.But you used Stevens and Pollard in Seattle, which do not.

Stevens was his TE for 5 years. When you go with the same guy for 5 years out of a 16 year run, it becomes the norm, not an aberration. Stevens' production is very consistent with the rest of his TE play. Chumura's best year was better than Stevens' best, but most of them looked more like that one. Some were worse. Jackie Harris had a nice year once.

With players like Robinson, Jackson, Alexander and others. Right now Carlson could be the best option on the team.

Stevens was never a top 3 option on that team.

And yet he had a 554/5 season.

A team that knows how to pass and has a good passer.

 

[remote controller]

I don't think Rosario practiced today. Carlson willl receive a bump until Engram and Branch are back, and then he is still worth start. I'm kinda liking the other Royal from Buffalo. He is acquiring a penchant for the redzone.

 

[tombonneau]

I don't think Rosario practiced today. Carlson willl receive a bump until Engram and Branch are back, and then he is still worth start. I'm kinda liking the other Royal from Buffalo. He is acquiring a penchant for the redzone.

I'm worried about Rosario's foot. Might be a blessing in disguise missing out on him in the WW. I too like Carlson a lot short term until (if?) the other WRs get healthy.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

I don't think Rosario practiced today. Carlson willl receive a bump until Engram and Branch are back, and then he is still worth start. I'm kinda liking the other Royal from Buffalo. He is acquiring a penchant for the redzone.

I'm worried about Rosario's foot. Might be a blessing in disguise missing out on him in the WW. I too like Carlson a lot short term until (if?) the other WRs get healthy.

I have Branch and Engram in several leagues. Incl both in the ultimate survivor.And the truth is, they are very steady receivers but very underwhelming athletes.

 

[HoTnickZ]

Great, yet another TE to consider. I know, good problem to have if you waited on the position.

 

[JamesTheScot]

Great, yet another TE to consider. I know, good problem to have if you waited on the position.

Well, I'm not sure about that.I now have the headache of trying to decide between Z.Miller, Carlson and Rosario every week. It'll take probably a month before things flesh out enough to know who's legit and who's not.

 

[JamesTheScot]

He's a very good TE and a lot better receiving TE then his college stats make it look. He was held in to block most of the time at ND because they were a bad/horrendous football team and needed extra help to protect the QB.

The downside for FF is that he is a great blocker, so he likely isn't going to ever play a hybrid Gates/Gonzo/etc kind of role. That said he can become a year in year out top 10 Fantasy TE, just likely not a top 3 kind of guy.

Not sure what his blocking ability has to do with how close he comes to Gates/Gonzo unless you are implying that his size is commiserate with blocking but not with getting open in the deep middle. Teams keep a TE in to block based upon their needs, not based upon an individual TE's ability to block. If they need the TE to block and a particular TE can't, they sub in the blocking TE for those plays. However, being a good blocker in addition to being a good receiver gets you onto the field more than if you're just a good receiver. Audibles then create more opportunities than you would otherwise have sitting on the bench during intended running plays.

I don't think he'll approach Gates/Gonzo numbers simply because he isn't that talented and I don't see Holmgren gearing that high a % of the offense through him. I think he's 7-10 material though as he grasps the game.

 

[Banger]

Great, yet another TE to consider. I know, good problem to have if you waited on the position.

Well, I'm not sure about that.I now have the headache of trying to decide between Z.Miller, Carlson and Rosario every week. It'll take probably a month before things flesh out enough to know who's legit and who's not.

I'd probably lean on Carlson in the short term with the number of injuries Sea has. Hass is a good QB with no weapons and bad running game, Miller has a bad QB and Rosario who knows? Rosario is likely the beneficiary while S. Smith is on the shelf.

 

[el-gato-grande]

Do you take Carlson who will probably get more targets, but on an injury depleted team that will likely have issues moving the ball on offense. Or a guy like Sheffler who won't get as many looks with as many weapons as Denver has but may get more red zone targets in their potent offense?

Both are available on waivers in my keeper league.

 

[Banger]

Do you take Carlson who will probably get more targets, but on an injury depleted team that will likely have issues moving the ball on offense. Or a guy like Sheffler who won't get as many looks with as many weapons as Denver has but may get more red zone targets in their potent offense? Both are available on waivers in my keeper league.

Personally I like guys that get targetted more over the feast or famine guys. I didn't like the fact that they used Nate Jackson as much as they did and I suspect it's due to Scheff's poor blocking. He will be in on passing downs but I prefer someone that's on the field more and is targetted more.