Thoughts on Reggie Bush after two games... (1 Viewer)

[T Man]

...As for the receptions, I see him getting targeted about 10 times a game. That should give him5-7 catches; however, with the type of receptions he'll be getting - mostly short passes, you cannot expect more than 50 yards of receiving. I think it is more likely that he'll consistently get about 35-45. Some games he may break a long one and get more, so his average will be greater, but I am looking on a per game expectation....

Not to nitpick your post, as I basically agree with your overall assessment, but he's gone 8-58 and 8-68 in the receiving game, and that's without really breaking a long one. Two games don't make a trend, but to think "he'll consistently get about 35-45" seems to be undershooting quite a bit.

The problem I have with "expecting" more then 35-45 yards a game receiving is that the defenses he was playing against the first two weeks were not particularly stout IMHO. The Ds of ATL, TB and CAR should be tougher and he plays them 6 times. Additionally, anything above 50 yards would put him at a minimum of 800 receiving yards at the end of the year and likely approaching 1000 - since the 35-45 yards a game was the perceived floor. I just can't project a rookie to recieve over 1000 yards or close to that from the RB position since it has rarely been done before. Now granted, most of the prior RBs do not line up at WR like Bush does, but he is still a rookie and his durability and endurance (its now a 16 game season) have not been proven at the NFL level.And teams will review tape and begin to adjsut even more to New Orleans' schemes.

 

[Two Deep]

As far as sitting Bush on Monday night, I do agree with you about Atlanta's ball control, but sometimes you just have a feeling that a team is going to do everything it can to showcase it's "star" in prime time.I compare it to Monday night games where Emmit needs 98 yards to reach a milestone, or Jerry Rice needs seven catches to be the all-time receiving leader.Teams (or the NFL for conspiracy theorists) make sure that their showcase players are showcased.Bush will very likely score his first NFL touchdown this week.

Bush is driving me nuts right now. I have other options, but I agree that he will be showcased Monday night. I also agree that Atlanta will do what they can to stop him first, and that they'll control the clock.My gut says play him, my head says no way, bench him.

The Reggie Bush everybody is looking for is playing for Atlanta and his name is Jerious Norwood.

 

[Sidewinder]

...

As for the receptions, I see him getting targeted about 10 times a game. That should give him5-7 catches; however, with the type of receptions he'll be getting - mostly short passes, you cannot expect more than 50 yards of receiving. I think it is more likely that he'll consistently get about 35-45. Some games he may break a long one and get more, so his average will be greater, but I am looking on a per game expectation.

...

Not to nitpick your post, as I basically agree with your overall assessment, but he's gone 8-58 and 8-68 in the receiving game, and that's without really breaking a long one. Two games don't make a trend, but to think "he'll consistently get about 35-45" seems to be undershooting quite a bit.

The problem I have with "expecting" more then 35-45 yards a game receiving is that the defenses he was playing against the first two weeks were not particularly stout IMHO. The Ds of ATL, TB and CAR should be tougher and he plays them 6 times. Additionally, anything above 50 yards would put him at a minimum of 800 receiving yards at the end of the year and likely approaching 1000 - since the 35-45 yards a game was the perceived floor. I just can't project a rookie to recieve over 1000 yards or close to that from the RB position since it has rarely been done before. Now granted, most of the prior RBs do not line up at WR like Bush does, but he is still a rookie and his durability and endurance (its now a 16 game season) have not been proven at the NFL level.

And teams will review tape and begin to adjsut even more to New Orleans' schemes.

Fair enough. My simple counters are [1] I don't see durability/endurance as an issue with Deuce getting 15-20 touches a game and [2] the way Reggie is being used, at least so far, I'm not convinced a team can significantly take him out of the passing game. But time will tell, good discussion.

 

[dawgtrails]

The man has touched the ball less than 40 times! When I read what some of you Bush people write, I don't know whether to laugh or to cry ...

First of all, let me say that Reggie Bush has a lot of flash, charm, ability and a lot of potential. This is all good for the NFL, the Saints and the Saints faithful.

But, claiming that Reggie Bush is anything but a good prospect with a lot of potential at this point is ridiculous and totally ignoring the historical facts and the accomplishments of men who turned their potential into performance!

There have been nearly 1,000 RB's in the history of the NFL to gain 1,000 total yards [rushing and receiving] in a season. If Reggie succeeds in getting 1,000 yards this year, then he is simply one of a thousand.

On the historical perspective, let's set the record straight on a few mis-perceptions.

1,000 Yards Receiving

Only 3 RB's have had 1,000 yards receiving in the entire history of the NFL.

Two did it in 1985. Lionel James of San Diego and Roger Craig of San Francisco. Marshall Faulk also did it in 1999.

Only Craig and Faulk did it with an additional 1,000 yards of rushing.

90 Receptions

There have been only 5 RB's instances of 90 or more receptions in a season. These are:

Larry Centers, Arizona Cardinals in both 1995 and 1996.

LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego Chargers in 2003.

Roger Craig, San Francisco 49ers in 1985.

Charlie Garner, Oakland Raiders in 2002.

Reggie Bush is on pace to accumulate 128 receptions which would shatter the previous record of 101 by Centers.

A little more history

There have been only 106 instances where a RB has averaged more than 4 receptions in a game for the season.

Yards per Catch [ypc]

The average ypc for this group is 9.0.

77 of these instances had a higher ypc then Reggie Bush currently has [7.9 ypc]. This means that he is in the bottom 27% of these instances.

24 RB's had ypc's above 10.0 [over 25% higher than Bush].

3 RB's had ypc's above 12.0 [over 50% higher than Bush].

1 of these RB's had a ypc of 18.8! That is 2.4 times the ypc of Bush!

Yards per Rush [ypr]

The average ypr for this group is 4.1.

59 RB's had ypr's above 4.0 [over 20% higher than Bush].

11 RB's had ypr's above 5.0 [over 50% higher than Bush].

1 of these RB's had a ypr of 7.3! That is 2.2 times the ypr of Bush! Note that this is the same RB as the stand out in ypc. His name is Lenny Moore!

98 of these instances had a higher ypr then Reggie Bush currently has [3.3 ypr]. This means that he is in the bottom 9% of these instances.

One last present day fact, Deuce McAllister has a ypr over 17% higher than Bush's ypr behind the same line in the same Offensive system ...

Why do I show these historical facts and associated statistics? Not to diminish Bush's potential or limited performance, but to simply point out that he is not the first RB to have potential or the first RB to do well in the NFL. Please make an effort try to review the historical facts when comparing Bush with his predecessors.

Let's all hope that he stays healthy and continues to bring excitement to each Saints game!

Nice post. My question to everyone is do you spend a #2 pick and $50M on a RB that you are basically using as a WR? I just think it's silly to say "Bush is looking like an all time great RB (Barry, Emmit, Sayers, Payton) when he isn't running the ball the majority of the time.

Because the team is 2-0?Because Deuce is a pretty damn good RB in his own right?

Because Bush is a rookie?

Because even though he is not running the majority of the time, he has 16 effin receptions already?

Take your pick...

I am one of the biggest Bush ball-washers...but I think it is pretty obvious why he isn't carrying the ball the majority of the time. I would expect his carries to increase slightly over the next few weeks.

I was sure that Deuce wouldn't be this good after his injury...I think maybe the Saints thought that too. But, once again, it is a nice problem to have. Two RBs who can make things happen, one who can line-up as a WR and make you not notice that he is in fact a RB.

I've said this before, but I think it is going to be fascnating to watch how the Saints use Bush this year. It would not surprise me one bit if Bush does in fact break the single season mark for receptions by a RB. Hell, he could even get a 1000 yards rushing too. It is only 63 yds per game. For his first 2 games he has 72. So he would have to average only 66 yds per game now to reach 1000. Certainly not unattainable.

 

[Doug B]

And teams will review tape and begin to adjsut even more to New Orleans' schemes.

That's actually a very good thing for the Saints offense. If teams sell out to stop Bush in the passing game (which will absolutely require two defenders, one of them being a DB), then a whole lot is opened up for other skill position players (or for Bush himself as a rusher). Bush could singehandedly force opposing D's to play 7 in the box against the run -- either Deuce or Bush can lap up on that all day.As the Saints offense under Payton continues to develop, it will start to resemble the story of the dyke and the little Dutch boy. Opposing defenses aren't going to have enough fingers to plug up all those holes in the dyke.

 

[icehouse]

Because the team is 2-0?

That's wonderful. Getting a new QB and your stud RB back doesn't hurt either. Neither does playing scrub teams. But Bush has made some impact so he has contributed to the wins.

Because Deuce is a pretty damn good RB in his own right?

I agree. But if someone is the next great back he should be able to get carries from a pretty good RB.

Because Bush is a rookie?

So is Maroney and D.Williams. So was R.Brown last year. So was Caddy (not splitting time though). So is Mike Bell. They get the rock though (rushes, not catches). I give Bush props for being multi-dimensional. But again, if I can't give him the ball to run the majority of the time I am lost on how I can put his name with some of the greatest runners in NFL history.

Because even though he is not running the majority of the time, he has 16 effin receptions already?

So you are going to compare him to the great RB's even though you acknowldege that he isn't running the majority of the time? Receptions are nice...but do you really want your RB to be a WR? What's mroe important for your back, the ability to run or to catch a pass? That's like me saying Bill Laimbeer was a great center because he could shoot 3 pointers.Take your pick...

I am one of the biggest Bush ball-washers...but I think it is pretty obvious why he isn't carrying the ball the majority of the time. I would expect his carries to increase slightly over the next few weeks.

I was sure that Deuce wouldn't be this good after his injury...I think maybe the Saints thought that too. But, once again, it is a nice problem to have. Two RBs who can make things happen, one who can line-up as a WR and make you not notice that he is in fact a RB.

I've said this before, but I think it is going to be fascnating to watch how the Saints use Bush this year. It would not surprise me one bit if Bush does in fact break the single season mark for receptions by a RB. Hell, he could even get a 1000 yards rushing too. It is only 63 yds per game. For his first 2 games he has 72. So he would have to average only 66 yds per game now to reach 1000. Certainly not unattainable.

I would expect his carries to increase as well. I just have an issue with him being compared to the greatest of all time and he has NEVER carried the full load.

 

[switz]

Sorry - Thurman Thomas was the BEST receiving RB ever. Larry Centers was very very good, but not the best. Thomas I believe was the first to ever break 1000 rushing and 1000 receiving in a season.

Nitpick: Roger Craig did it in 1985. Pretty sure Thomas never had 1000 yds receiving ... checking now.EDIT: correct on Thomas -- his career high in receiving yards was 669 in 1989.

Thanks for the correction, I should have looked it up. It was Faulk who put up 1000/1000, and Craig did it first (though it was Faulk I was thinking of). Still Thomas, Faulk, and Craig were better receiving backs than Center IMO.