Thoughts on some of the younger guys (1 Viewer)

[Escape Goat]

I was hoping a few of you baseball s could give me some insight on some of the newer blood.

 

[boom king]

I was hoping a few of you baseball s could give me some insight on some of the newer blood.

well ill rank them for this season...braunbj uptonjustin uptongordon (possibly ahead of justin)jonesmaybinhunter ? (call me an idiot, but whos that)

 

[Knightro]

Braun - one of the best young players in the game. Plus power and speed numbers for you. BA can't remain this high with that many strikeouts. Defense sucks, but Milwaukee sucks defensively almost all over the field so nobody cares.

Uptons - BJ is superior now, scouts say Justin will be later. BJ qualifies at 2B and OF this year - he can go 20/20 in his sleep.

Gordon - shouldn't have skipped AAA and it showed in the 1st half last year. Buy low now while people think he isn't worth the hype

Jones - limited to LF because of his arm, has to share with Diaz

Maybin - Florida will play him all day - could whiff 170 times this year but could also steal 30 bags and hit 15-18 homers.

Hunter - Cedric Hunter of the Padres? He's a ways off and right now, his batting average is his only attractive skill.

 

[jtnt1096]

Here are my brief thoughts on a few of them:

Braun - I think he regresses a little bit this year with AVG. Had everything go his way at the plate last year. HR and RBI should be decent though.

BJ Upton - Very lucky last year with AVG. BABIP was unreal. I see him as a 20-20 guy, but hitting .270 this year.

Justin Upton - I see Justin becoming a better player than BJ in the next few years. All the skills. Might not show it all this year, but it will come.

Alex Gordon - Will have a jump this year. I think he will be undervalued in fantasy leagues.

Maybin - Needs another year in AAA. Marlins will probably rush him, but they should at least give him 1/2 year in AAA. Last year showed he was overmatched in Majors.

Chris Young - Opposite of Upton. His BABIP was pretty low. I see his AVG improving into the .265-.270 area. Can hit for power and has speed. I think he sacrifices a little power this year to get average up. 25-25 guy.

 

[Escape Goat]

I was hoping a few of you baseball s could give me some insight on some of the newer blood.

well ill rank them for this season...braunbj uptonjustin uptongordon (possibly ahead of justin)jonesmaybinhunter ? (call me an idiot, but whos that)

Hunter Pence - I just call him Hunter. He's got two last names

 

[boom king]

I was hoping a few of you baseball s could give me some insight on some of the newer blood.

well ill rank them for this season...braunbj uptonjustin uptongordon (possibly ahead of justin)jonesmaybinhunter ? (call me an idiot, but whos that)

Hunter Pence - I just call him Hunter. He's got two last names

i would put him just below braun above well ahead of upton

 

[Keys Myaths]

Braun - one of the best young players in the game. Plus power and speed numbers for you. BA can't remain this high with that many strikeouts. Defense sucks, but Milwaukee sucks defensively almost all over the field so nobody cares.

1. There are many players that maintain high batting averages with high strikeout totals. The correlation you seek just isn't there.2. Why wouldn't you care that he sucks at defense? What does the rest of Milwaukee's team have to do with your evaluation of Braun's performance?

 

[Keys Myaths]

Here are my brief thoughts on a few of them:Braun - I think he regresses a little bit this year with AVG. Had everything go his way at the plate last year. HR and RBI should be decent though.BJ Upton - Very lucky last year with AVG. BABIP was unreal. I see him as a 20-20 guy, but hitting .270 this year.Justin Upton - I see Justin becoming a better player than BJ in the next few years. All the skills. Might not show it all this year, but it will come.Alex Gordon - Will have a jump this year. I think he will be undervalued in fantasy leagues.Maybin - Needs another year in AAA. Marlins will probably rush him, but they should at least give him 1/2 year in AAA. Last year showed he was overmatched in Majors.Chris Young - Opposite of Upton. His BABIP was pretty low. I see his AVG improving into the .265-.270 area. Can hit for power and has speed. I think he sacrifices a little power this year to get average up. 25-25 guy.

I thought BABIP was a telling statistic for pitcher's luck. Have they done correlation studies with hitters?

 

[Eephus]

Braun - one of the best young players in the game. Plus power and speed numbers for you. BA can't remain this high with that many strikeouts. Defense sucks, but Milwaukee sucks defensively almost all over the field so nobody cares.

1. There are many players that maintain high batting averages with high strikeout totals. The correlation you seek just isn't there.2. Why wouldn't you care that he sucks at defense? What does the rest of Milwaukee's team have to do with your evaluation of Braun's performance?

Re: #2 I don't think Braun's move to the OF is going to have any effect on his offensive production. 3B was basically a new position for him last year. His problems there didn't seem to have any impact on his offensive numbers.The BB/SO ratio is more troubling. His walk rate wasn't that low in the minors so there's hope he might improve that. But what's more likely is that his AVG will regress. He'll still be productive but he may never be a first rounder in roto. He had 15 SB last year. I wouldn't be surprised to see that number go down a bit as well.

 

[Knightro]

Braun - one of the best young players in the game. Plus power and speed numbers for you. BA can't remain this high with that many strikeouts. Defense sucks, but Milwaukee sucks defensively almost all over the field so nobody cares.

1. There are many players that maintain high batting averages with high strikeout totals. The correlation you seek just isn't there.2. Why wouldn't you care that he sucks at defense? What does the rest of Milwaukee's team have to do with your evaluation of Braun's performance?

#1 - the correlation is most certainly there. Last year in the NL, there were 11 players that had at least 450 at bats and struck out 25% or more over the course of the season. Those players:Ryan Howard = 38% strikeout rate, .268 avg

Adam Dunn = 32% strikeout rate, .264 avg

Bill Hall = 28% strikeout rate, .254 avg

Mike Cameron = 28% strikeout rate, .242 avg

Miguel Olivo = 27% strikeout rate, .237 avg

Brad Hawpe = 27% strikeout rate, .291 avg

Jason Bay = 26% strikeout rate, .247 avg

Dan Uggla = 26% strikeout rate, .241 avg

Ryan Braun = 25% strikeout rate, .324 avg

Pat Burrell = 25% strikeout rate, .256 avg

Chris Young = 25% strikeout rate, .237 avg

If there were no correlation, certainly someone else outside of the Coors-aided Hawpe would have come close to putting up a decent batting average. Braun was aided by a .368 BABIP - but we don't yet know is that is a skill he can hold. Batters BABIP tend to go over a 3 yr average while most if not all pitchers normalize in the .290-.310 OBABIP. Some guys (Ryan Howard is one) can hold high BABIPs. You either have to be very fast or have a crapload of power to do that. Braun has a mix of both. His batting average was helped because a lot of what he hit left the park. Rare is it to see a batter with a .320 average who only hit 16% line drives, but when you hit FB at a 45% rate and one out of every 5 FBs you hit leave the park, it is going to help your average.

#2 - defense matters because a player's playing time can be reduced by crappy defense on a manager's whim. A player not in the lineup isn't helping your fantasy team.

 

[Keys Myaths]

Braun - one of the best young players in the game. Plus power and speed numbers for you. BA can't remain this high with that many strikeouts. Defense sucks, but Milwaukee sucks defensively almost all over the field so nobody cares.

1. There are many players that maintain high batting averages with high strikeout totals. The correlation you seek just isn't there.2. Why wouldn't you care that he sucks at defense? What does the rest of Milwaukee's team have to do with your evaluation of Braun's performance?

#1 - the correlation is most certainly there. Last year in the NL, there were 11 players that had at least 450 at bats and struck out 25% or more over the course of the season. Those players:Ryan Howard = 38% strikeout rate, .268 avg

Adam Dunn = 32% strikeout rate, .264 avg

Bill Hall = 28% strikeout rate, .254 avg

Mike Cameron = 28% strikeout rate, .242 avg

Miguel Olivo = 27% strikeout rate, .237 avg

Brad Hawpe = 27% strikeout rate, .291 avg

Jason Bay = 26% strikeout rate, .247 avg

Dan Uggla = 26% strikeout rate, .241 avg

Ryan Braun = 25% strikeout rate, .324 avg

Pat Burrell = 25% strikeout rate, .256 avg

Chris Young = 25% strikeout rate, .237 avg

If there were no correlation, certainly someone else outside of the Coors-aided Hawpe would have come close to putting up a decent batting average. Braun was aided by a .368 BABIP - but we don't yet know is that is a skill he can hold. Batters BABIP tend to go over a 3 yr average while most if not all pitchers normalize in the .290-.310 OBABIP. Some guys (Ryan Howard is one) can hold high BABIPs. You either have to be very fast or have a crapload of power to do that. Braun has a mix of both. His batting average was helped because a lot of what he hit left the park. Rare is it to see a batter with a .320 average who only hit 16% line drives, but when you hit FB at a 45% rate and one out of every 5 FBs you hit leave the park, it is going to help your average.

#2 - defense matters because a player's playing time can be reduced by crappy defense on a manager's whim. A player not in the lineup isn't helping your fantasy team.

Sorry, but if you're right on #1, you're right--but a dataset of 11 players from one year isn't going to convince me, especially when averaged together, it looks like that dataset comes pretty close to the league average. Averaging the BAs above gets you a .260 batting average, and the league average is .267--for a dataset of 11, that's WELL within the margin of error statistically.

 

[MAC_32]

I like Jay Bruce and Matt Kemp more than Justin Upton and a lot more than Maybin and Adam Jones. Other young'ins to keep an eye on...

Evan Longoria, Colby Rasmus, JR Towles [only catcher outside of Martin with double digit SB potential], Kevin Slowey, Jair Jurrjens, and Matt Garza

 

[Eephus]

Braun - one of the best young players in the game. Plus power and speed numbers for you. BA can't remain this high with that many strikeouts. Defense sucks, but Milwaukee sucks defensively almost all over the field so nobody cares.

1. There are many players that maintain high batting averages with high strikeout totals. The correlation you seek just isn't there.2. Why wouldn't you care that he sucks at defense? What does the rest of Milwaukee's team have to do with your evaluation of Braun's performance?

#1 - the correlation is most certainly there. Last year in the NL, there were 11 players that had at least 450 at bats and struck out 25% or more over the course of the season. Those players:Ryan Howard = 38% strikeout rate, .268 avg

Adam Dunn = 32% strikeout rate, .264 avg

Bill Hall = 28% strikeout rate, .254 avg

Mike Cameron = 28% strikeout rate, .242 avg

Miguel Olivo = 27% strikeout rate, .237 avg

Brad Hawpe = 27% strikeout rate, .291 avg

Jason Bay = 26% strikeout rate, .247 avg

Dan Uggla = 26% strikeout rate, .241 avg

Ryan Braun = 25% strikeout rate, .324 avg

Pat Burrell = 25% strikeout rate, .256 avg

Chris Young = 25% strikeout rate, .237 avg

If there were no correlation, certainly someone else outside of the Coors-aided Hawpe would have come close to putting up a decent batting average. Braun was aided by a .368 BABIP - but we don't yet know is that is a skill he can hold. Batters BABIP tend to go over a 3 yr average while most if not all pitchers normalize in the .290-.310 OBABIP. Some guys (Ryan Howard is one) can hold high BABIPs. You either have to be very fast or have a crapload of power to do that. Braun has a mix of both. His batting average was helped because a lot of what he hit left the park. Rare is it to see a batter with a .320 average who only hit 16% line drives, but when you hit FB at a 45% rate and one out of every 5 FBs you hit leave the park, it is going to help your average.

#2 - defense matters because a player's playing time can be reduced by crappy defense on a manager's whim. A player not in the lineup isn't helping your fantasy team.

Sorry, but if you're right on #1, you're right--but a dataset of 11 players from one year isn't going to convince me, especially when averaged together, it looks like that dataset comes pretty close to the league average. Averaging the BAs above gets you a .260 batting average, and the league average is .267--for a dataset of 11, that's WELL within the margin of error statistically.

I don't see Braun falling to Pat Burrell production either but it's a valid argument. A poor BB/SO ratio and abnormally high BABIP isn't a sustainable combination.The problem with Braun is people see a young five category guy and then extrapolate his numbers over a full season with some development. I think itt's likely he'll regress in AVG; how much I don't know but I'd put the over/under at .300 rather than .324. A hit in OBP will affect his SB and R rates as well. The raw numbers will probably go up because he'll play a full season but I wouldn't be surprised if Pence and/or Gordon are better this year.

 

[Knightro]

Over the past 3 seasons, 48 time has a player met the criteria of 450+ AB and a K% of 25% or more. To see the entire list, click here

The overall average of these 48 instances is .267. The combined league average over the last 3 years has been .270

For fantasy purposes, the averages are higher because you are not using the entire talent pool. A .270 team average would put you low in the standings for that category. While a .272 average might be considered above average for real MLB, for fantasy purposes, anything below a .280 average has to be considered weak. If your team average isn't .280 or higher, you are likely not in the top 3 in that category for most NL or AL only leagues.

Using that criteria, only 14 of the 48 players hit above .280. Most importantly, only one of them did it twice in this sample set. It is very tough to consistently hit for a high batting average when you are striking out 25% of the time or more. You might be able to do it one season, but unless you play in Colorado, good luck doing it again the next year or two.

 

[Keys Myaths]

The overall average of these 48 instances is .267. The combined league average over the last 3 years has been .270

Then you're not convincing me of anything. You're talking about a 1% difference here--over n=48.

 

[EZD222]

I love me some Tim Lincecum

 

[boom king]

I love me some Tim Lincecum

eeuuuw

 

[The Kansas Comet]

The Dodgers have some good young players who should get a lot of playing time this year: James Loney, Matt Kemp, and Andy La Roche. Short version - Loney should be the starter at 1B. Hits for average, decent power, very good glove. Matt Kemp - physically gifted, tremendous power, poor command of the strike zone. Good wheels, should get a lot of PT at the corner OF positions if he can cut down on his K's and improve his BB's. La Roche - Will be given every chance to win the 3B job this year. Good command of the strike zone, needs to develop a little more pop, can hit for average. Not a good defensive player.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

I like Jay Bruce and Matt Kemp more than Justin Upton and a lot more than Maybin and Adam Jones. Other young'ins to keep an eye on...

I think Bruce has a great upside but I don't like him more than Justin Upton and Jones will be a fine player also. Maybin is still early in his development but I'll guarantee you've never seen anyone go from home to third on a ball hit to the gap faster than he can. Maybin is going to be very good and has as much upside as Bruce IMO.

Evan Longoria, Colby Rasmus, JR Towles [only catcher outside of Martin with double digit SB potential], Kevin Slowey, Jair Jurrjens, and Matt Garza

Longoria of course. Rasmus I like but Jair Jurrjens? He's a good prospect but he's gonna be a grinder as a starter and doesn't have an overpowering fastball. His strength is his pitch location and his demeanor on the mound. He should not be included before Hughes or Bucholtz and the like. He could be a fine major league pitcher but he's more like a #3 guy at best. LaRoche for the Dodgers seems to be left out here but the guy is an OBP machine and he has hit at every level.

 

[Captain Hook]

I was hoping a few of you baseball s could give me some insight on some of the newer blood.

ask a stupid question (Hunter) and you'll get lots of stupid questionsIn addition I am not sure why some football guys are questioning knightro's answers since he actually knows baseball?

 

[Clifton]

I was hoping a few of you baseball s could give me some insight on some of the newer blood.

ask a stupid question (Hunter) and you'll get lots of stupid questionsIn addition I am not sure why some football guys are questioning knightro's answers since he actually knows baseball?

What's stupid about questioning Hunter Pence

 

[Captain Hook]

Well in the context of names - all others were last names - his name is Pence not Hunter.

 

[Knightro]

The overall average of these 48 instances is .267. The combined league average over the last 3 years has been .270

Then you're not convincing me of anything. You're talking about a 1% difference here--over n=48.

The rest of my point was that anything under .280 is considered a low average in fantasy play. Only 29% of the 48 instances of 450+ AB + 25% K rate achieved a successful batting average. 71% of the situations that met those criteria failed to achieve desired results. Hence, there is indeed a correlation between players with high strikeout rates and an inability to hit for high average. While the overall average was .267 here, 63% of the players on this list failed to hit league average. That's the correlation that exist. When a fulltime player is striking out 25% of the time or more, the odds of them hitting for league average are not good - hitting for fantasy league average is even worse.

 

[MAC_32]

I like Jay Bruce and Matt Kemp more than Justin Upton and a lot more than Maybin and Adam Jones. Other young'ins to keep an eye on...

I think Bruce has a great upside but I don't like him more than Justin Upton and Jones will be a fine player also. Maybin is still early in his development but I'll guarantee you've never seen anyone go from home to third on a ball hit to the gap faster than he can. Maybin is going to be very good and has as much upside as Bruce IMO.

Evan Longoria, Colby Rasmus, JR Towles [only catcher outside of Martin with double digit SB potential], Kevin Slowey, Jair Jurrjens, and Matt Garza

Longoria of course. Rasmus I like but Jair Jurrjens? He's a good prospect but he's gonna be a grinder as a starter and doesn't have an overpowering fastball. His strength is his pitch location and his demeanor on the mound. He should not be included before Hughes or Bucholtz and the like. He could be a fine major league pitcher but he's more like a #3 guy at best. LaRoche for the Dodgers seems to be left out here but the guy is an OBP machine and he has hit at every level.

Maybin is nowhere near ready for the bigs. He is an elite prospect, but his game is at least another year away. That and the Fish are sure to rush him up to the major league club. Long term I'd take Maybin in a heart beat, but this year? Bruce, and it's not close. I'm taking Bruce over Adam Jones this year because I just don't see Jones producing in any cat above replacement value; at least Bruce has 30 HR potential. I think the vast majority are over-estimating Upton. Good? Yes. Great? No. I was digging deeper for my young'in SP to pub, of course Hughes and Buchholtz are better options than Jurrjens, as is Andrew Miller. I believe Jurrjens will be a perennial under valued solid ratio innings eater. I'm cautiously optimisitc about Morales and Jiminez in Colorado too, but believe Jiminez may struggle this year due to over-use in 07. I, too, am anxious to see what Clayton Kershaw and and Adam Miller have in store for us if they get called up this year.

 

[Knightro]

Be leery of Bruce skipping to the majors after only wetting his feet at the other levels.

Young pitcher that may be worth it this year = Johnny Cueto with the Reds.

 

[Keys Myaths]

The overall average of these 48 instances is .267. The combined league average over the last 3 years has been .270

Then you're not convincing me of anything. You're talking about a 1% difference here--over n=48.

The rest of my point was that anything under .280 is considered a low average in fantasy play. Only 29% of the 48 instances of 450+ AB + 25% K rate achieved a successful batting average. 71% of the situations that met those criteria failed to achieve desired results. Hence, there is indeed a correlation between players with high strikeout rates and an inability to hit for high average.

No, you're telling me that only 29% of a certain group of major leaguers produced well-above average at something.Again, not going to convince me of anything.

 

[Knightro]

The overall average of these 48 instances is .267. The combined league average over the last 3 years has been .270

Then you're not convincing me of anything. You're talking about a 1% difference here--over n=48.

The rest of my point was that anything under .280 is considered a low average in fantasy play. Only 29% of the 48 instances of 450+ AB + 25% K rate achieved a successful batting average. 71% of the situations that met those criteria failed to achieve desired results. Hence, there is indeed a correlation between players with high strikeout rates and an inability to hit for high average.

No, you're telling me that only 29% of a certain group of major leaguers produced well-above average at something.Again, not going to convince me of anything.

I give up. You say there is no correlation of high strikeout rate and low batting averages, and I show you that more often than not, a player cannot hit for a high average with high strikeouts. If a 3 yr sample size of certain conditions wasn't enough, let's look at all hitters over the last 5 seasons and their overall batting average as grouped by strikeout rate: 25-30% K rate = .25020-24% K rate = .26515-19% K rate = .27110-14% K rate = .282interesting trend, eh?

 

[Capella]

Keys, no offense...but you're arguing with one of the innerwebs supreme baseball nerds here. Proceed with caution. You may be a bit over your head.

 

[MAC_32]

Be leery of Bruce skipping to the majors after only wetting his feet at the other levels. Young pitcher that may be worth it this year = Johnny Cueto with the Reds.

I like Volquez this year more than Cueto, who'd be best served with another year in the minor's. Maybe a late season trial run, but he won't be fantasy relevant for another year.

 

[Keys Myaths]

Keys, no offense...but you're arguing with one of the innerwebs supreme baseball nerds here. Proceed with caution. You may be a bit over your head.

I'm arguing that strikeouts have NO correlation to batting average. He's arguing, in essence, that players with high strikeout totals hit for high averages 30% of the time. So, 30% are well above average.I'd argue that 30% being well above average shows there's pretty little correlation to strikeouts and low batting averages.He's trying to skew my argument into being 'high strikeout totals mean high batting averages'. I'm showing (and successfully) that correlation doesn't exist--NO correlation exists.I know there have been studies done on this, and I don't have the time to look them up, but there's a 3-4% correlation between strikeouts and run production. Batting average is around 55%, OBP is like 80%, things like that.I'd really like to know what I'm missing, because he keeps harping on the fact that 30% of his data set is well above average. Clearly that shows no correlation.

 

[Keys Myaths]

The overall average of these 48 instances is .267. The combined league average over the last 3 years has been .270

Then you're not convincing me of anything. You're talking about a 1% difference here--over n=48.

The rest of my point was that anything under .280 is considered a low average in fantasy play. Only 29% of the 48 instances of 450+ AB + 25% K rate achieved a successful batting average. 71% of the situations that met those criteria failed to achieve desired results. Hence, there is indeed a correlation between players with high strikeout rates and an inability to hit for high average.

No, you're telling me that only 29% of a certain group of major leaguers produced well-above average at something.Again, not going to convince me of anything.

I give up. You say there is no correlation of high strikeout rate and low batting averages, and I show you that more often than not, a player cannot hit for a high average with high strikeouts. If a 3 yr sample size of certain conditions wasn't enough, let's look at all hitters over the last 5 seasons and their overall batting average as grouped by strikeout rate: 25-30% K rate = .25020-24% K rate = .26515-19% K rate = .27110-14% K rate = .282interesting trend, eh?

THIS is better. Much better.In other arguments, (read my post above), you said 30% were well above average. THIS proves your point.Good job.

 

[Knightro]

Be leery of Bruce skipping to the majors after only wetting his feet at the other levels. Young pitcher that may be worth it this year = Johnny Cueto with the Reds.

I like Volquez this year more than Cueto, who'd be best served with another year in the minor's. Maybe a late season trial run, but he won't be fantasy relevant for another year.

Biggest problem with Volquez = too many flyballs. Wrong park for that to happen in. He can get the strikeouts (great change) but he'll give up 30 bombs in that park if he gets 25 starts

 

[Knightro]

The overall average of these 48 instances is .267. The combined league average over the last 3 years has been .270

Then you're not convincing me of anything. You're talking about a 1% difference here--over n=48.

The rest of my point was that anything under .280 is considered a low average in fantasy play. Only 29% of the 48 instances of 450+ AB + 25% K rate achieved a successful batting average. 71% of the situations that met those criteria failed to achieve desired results. Hence, there is indeed a correlation between players with high strikeout rates and an inability to hit for high average.

No, you're telling me that only 29% of a certain group of major leaguers produced well-above average at something.Again, not going to convince me of anything.

I give up. You say there is no correlation of high strikeout rate and low batting averages, and I show you that more often than not, a player cannot hit for a high average with high strikeouts. If a 3 yr sample size of certain conditions wasn't enough, let's look at all hitters over the last 5 seasons and their overall batting average as grouped by strikeout rate: 25-30% K rate = .25020-24% K rate = .26515-19% K rate = .27110-14% K rate = .282interesting trend, eh?

THIS is better. Much better.In other arguments, (read my post above), you said 30% were well above average. THIS proves your point.Good job.

Glad we could finally get to an understanding. I pulled that study from my bank once I got home. I was using the smaller sample size as I happened to have that spreadsheet handy on my desktop. Just about every baseball stat can fall in the 80/20 range. For every guy that hits .324 with a 25% K rate, there is someone hitting .215. The numbers play out that show that if we take 2 players, give them both 450 at bats, but one strikes out 5% less than the other, that batter has a better statistical chance of hittinig for a higher average.Average is probably the toughest fantasy category to make up during a season. If you wait until August to address an 8th place team batting average, it is too late. You can take one of your part-time players with a low average but it are these guys that take up 450+ at bats that really put a dent in your stats. If you're drafting Adam Dunn, you better land someone that can offset that batting average.

 

[MAC_32]

Be leery of Bruce skipping to the majors after only wetting his feet at the other levels. Young pitcher that may be worth it this year = Johnny Cueto with the Reds.

I like Volquez this year more than Cueto, who'd be best served with another year in the minor's. Maybe a late season trial run, but he won't be fantasy relevant for another year.

Biggest problem with Volquez = too many flyballs. Wrong park for that to happen in. He can get the strikeouts (great change) but he'll give up 30 bombs in that park if he gets 25 starts

Oh, he's a matchup play only, I just think he's a much better option in 08 than Cueto.

 

[Keys Myaths]

The overall average of these 48 instances is .267. The combined league average over the last 3 years has been .270

Then you're not convincing me of anything. You're talking about a 1% difference here--over n=48.

The rest of my point was that anything under .280 is considered a low average in fantasy play. Only 29% of the 48 instances of 450+ AB + 25% K rate achieved a successful batting average. 71% of the situations that met those criteria failed to achieve desired results. Hence, there is indeed a correlation between players with high strikeout rates and an inability to hit for high average.

No, you're telling me that only 29% of a certain group of major leaguers produced well-above average at something.Again, not going to convince me of anything.

I give up. You say there is no correlation of high strikeout rate and low batting averages, and I show you that more often than not, a player cannot hit for a high average with high strikeouts. If a 3 yr sample size of certain conditions wasn't enough, let's look at all hitters over the last 5 seasons and their overall batting average as grouped by strikeout rate: 25-30% K rate = .25020-24% K rate = .26515-19% K rate = .27110-14% K rate = .282interesting trend, eh?

THIS is better. Much better.In other arguments, (read my post above), you said 30% were well above average. THIS proves your point.Good job.

Glad we could finally get to an understanding. I pulled that study from my bank once I got home. I was using the smaller sample size as I happened to have that spreadsheet handy on my desktop. Just about every baseball stat can fall in the 80/20 range. For every guy that hits .324 with a 25% K rate, there is someone hitting .215. The numbers play out that show that if we take 2 players, give them both 450 at bats, but one strikes out 5% less than the other, that batter has a better statistical chance of hittinig for a higher average.Average is probably the toughest fantasy category to make up during a season. If you wait until August to address an 8th place team batting average, it is too late. You can take one of your part-time players with a low average but it are these guys that take up 450+ at bats that really put a dent in your stats. If you're drafting Adam Dunn, you better land someone that can offset that batting average.

I didn't mean to offend you--the other statistics just didn't prove anything for me. Something I always wondered about, and I had always heard the other way. I'm more interested in it from a baseball stance than fantasy, but it's good there too.

 

[Bobcat10]

What do you guys think about Brandon Jones? He's seems to be a little under the radar right now. I'm assuming all the talk in here revolves around Adam Jones.

 

[Bobcat10]

Will Brandon Wood ever make an impact...or get the chance to?

 

[Knightro]

What do you guys think about Brandon Jones? He's seems to be a little under the radar right now. I'm assuming all the talk in here revolves around Adam Jones.

Jones is limited to LF due to a weak arm. He'll have to share that with Matt Diaz who has earned the chance to play more this season. Jones could be a decent reserve this year with more growth to come.

 

[Knightro]

Will Brandon Wood ever make an impact...or get the chance to?

possibly this year. Where does he play? SS or 3B? 3B is probably better for him.His problem is he cannot make consistent contact. The Troy Glaus comparison he often gets is dead-on. Wood can hit 30 HRs at some point in his career, but hitting .270 will be a struggle.

 

[ScottNorwood]

Will Brandon Wood ever make an impact...or get the chance to?

possibly this year. Where does he play? SS or 3B? 3B is probably better for him.His problem is he cannot make consistent contact. The Troy Glaus comparison he often gets is dead-on. Wood can hit 30 HRs at some point in his career, but hitting .270 will be a struggle.

Why the low average? Because of his strikeouts? I haven't seen any evidence that strikeouts affect batting average.

 

[Knightro]

golf clap

 

[Angry Beavers]

There are a couple of young catchers:

Soto and J.C. Towles who I am sure most of you know about. Much more interest in Keepers than in redrafts depending upon starting requirement of one or 2 catchers. I think taking a flier on one of em' and stashing em' on your bench may not be a bad idea.

 

[Knightro]

There are a couple of young catchers:Soto and J.C. Towles who I am sure most of you know about. Much more interest in Keepers than in redrafts depending upon starting requirement of one or 2 catchers. I think taking a flier on one of em' and stashing em' on your bench may not be a bad idea.

Towles is great because he can contribute steals from the C position. The concern for 2008 is limited exposure at the higher levels as he played A, AA, and AAA last year before getting to Houston at the end of the season. Soto has a lot of pop in his bat, but it didn't show up until last year which was his 3rd time around AAA. Both are rosterable this year and are safe plays because of Soto's power and Towles's steals offset what can likely be BA struggles as they adjust to the better pitching.

 

[MAC_32]

There are a couple of young catchers:Soto and J.C. Towles who I am sure most of you know about. Much more interest in Keepers than in redrafts depending upon starting requirement of one or 2 catchers. I think taking a flier on one of em' and stashing em' on your bench may not be a bad idea.

Towles is great because he can contribute steals from the C position. The concern for 2008 is limited exposure at the higher levels as he played A, AA, and AAA last year before getting to Houston at the end of the season. Soto has a lot of pop in his bat, but it didn't show up until last year which was his 3rd time around AAA. Both are rosterable this year and are safe plays because of Soto's power and Towles's steals offset what can likely be BA struggles as they adjust to the better pitching.

I would much rather wait a few rounds and take a shot on either of these players than take a Pudge, Molina, Hernandez, or Varitek earlier.

 

[Captain Hook]

There are a couple of young catchers:Soto and J.C. Towles who I am sure most of you know about. Much more interest in Keepers than in redrafts depending upon starting requirement of one or 2 catchers. I think taking a flier on one of em' and stashing em' on your bench may not be a bad idea.

Towles is great because he can contribute steals from the C position. The concern for 2008 is limited exposure at the higher levels as he played A, AA, and AAA last year before getting to Houston at the end of the season. Soto has a lot of pop in his bat, but it didn't show up until last year which was his 3rd time around AAA. Both are rosterable this year and are safe plays because of Soto's power and Towles's steals offset what can likely be BA struggles as they adjust to the better pitching.

I would much rather wait a few rounds and take a shot on either of these players than take a Pudge, Molina, Hernandez, or Varitek earlier.

except that in many recent $$ drafts they are actually being draft ahead of the others you mention

 

[Knightro]

There are a couple of young catchers:Soto and J.C. Towles who I am sure most of you know about. Much more interest in Keepers than in redrafts depending upon starting requirement of one or 2 catchers. I think taking a flier on one of em' and stashing em' on your bench may not be a bad idea.

Towles is great because he can contribute steals from the C position. The concern for 2008 is limited exposure at the higher levels as he played A, AA, and AAA last year before getting to Houston at the end of the season. Soto has a lot of pop in his bat, but it didn't show up until last year which was his 3rd time around AAA. Both are rosterable this year and are safe plays because of Soto's power and Towles's steals offset what can likely be BA struggles as they adjust to the better pitching.

I would much rather wait a few rounds and take a shot on either of these players than take a Pudge, Molina, Hernandez, or Varitek earlier.

except that in many recent $ drafts they are actually being draft ahead of the others you mention

In an 11 team NL mock draft I'm doing right now, these catchers have gone so far:Russell Martin - 2.10Brian McCann - 5.07Geovany Soto - 12.11Bengie Molina - 14.04Justin Towles (me) - 14.06Chris Snyder - 16.07Carlos Ruis - 17.03

 

[MAC_32]

There are a couple of young catchers:Soto and J.C. Towles who I am sure most of you know about. Much more interest in Keepers than in redrafts depending upon starting requirement of one or 2 catchers. I think taking a flier on one of em' and stashing em' on your bench may not be a bad idea.

Towles is great because he can contribute steals from the C position. The concern for 2008 is limited exposure at the higher levels as he played A, AA, and AAA last year before getting to Houston at the end of the season. Soto has a lot of pop in his bat, but it didn't show up until last year which was his 3rd time around AAA. Both are rosterable this year and are safe plays because of Soto's power and Towles's steals offset what can likely be BA struggles as they adjust to the better pitching.

I would much rather wait a few rounds and take a shot on either of these players than take a Pudge, Molina, Hernandez, or Varitek earlier.

except that in many recent $$ drafts they are actually being draft ahead of the others you mention

Must be looking at different mocks. I've seen Soto go ahead of Hernandez and Varitek on occasion, but Towles is nowhere to be seen. Still, I think both could produce top 7 numbers.