Manning's playoff QB rating: 89.1
Brady's playoff QB rating: 89.4
On the surface, it would appear that each QB rating is nearly identical, giving brady a small sliver of adantage over Manning. However, if you look at the variance of QB ratings, you'll notice something striking. Brady's playoff rating range from 70.4 to 130.4 while Manning's QB rating range from 31.2 to 158.3. Based on that, Brady's QB rating is actually much more attractive than Manning's QB rating, even though it is only .3 points off. Even if Brady's QB rating were somewhat lower than Mannings (for argument's sake, say brady has a postseson QB rating of 82 to Manning's 89.1), Brady's performance would still be more desireable than Manning's. Because of Brady's small standard deviation, his performance is much more predictable and you can expect the Patriots to have a good chance to win every single game. On the flip side, Manning's standard deviation is much greater; he could pound a team into dust, or he could look like a high school QB playing a pro game... a very undesirable trait to have during playoffs. Also, if you look at Brady's/Manning's performance through the lenses of an economist, Brady also wins. All of Brady's QB ratings have much more marginal utility than Manning's does. If you add 1 QB rating point to each of Brady's performances, it'll have much more marginal utility to the team than if you added 1 QB rating point to Manning's performances, which does not necessarily help his team out that much. For example, ff you add 1 point to the games that Manning tanks, it probably doesn't affect the outcome... the same is true if you add 1 point to the games that Manning goes gangbusters on his opponent.
Getting back to standard deviation, I liken Brady's performance to that of a value stock that guys like Warren Buffet likes to buy: you'll get consistently good returns and when you cash out, you'll be a wealthy man. Manning, on the other hand, is like a high yield/high risk investment (say a junk bond or startup tech stock), you could see it fly through the roof one day and crash and burn the next... usually only fools purchase these types of investments.
Brady's playoff QB rating: 89.4
On the surface, it would appear that each QB rating is nearly identical, giving brady a small sliver of adantage over Manning. However, if you look at the variance of QB ratings, you'll notice something striking. Brady's playoff rating range from 70.4 to 130.4 while Manning's QB rating range from 31.2 to 158.3. Based on that, Brady's QB rating is actually much more attractive than Manning's QB rating, even though it is only .3 points off. Even if Brady's QB rating were somewhat lower than Mannings (for argument's sake, say brady has a postseson QB rating of 82 to Manning's 89.1), Brady's performance would still be more desireable than Manning's. Because of Brady's small standard deviation, his performance is much more predictable and you can expect the Patriots to have a good chance to win every single game. On the flip side, Manning's standard deviation is much greater; he could pound a team into dust, or he could look like a high school QB playing a pro game... a very undesirable trait to have during playoffs. Also, if you look at Brady's/Manning's performance through the lenses of an economist, Brady also wins. All of Brady's QB ratings have much more marginal utility than Manning's does. If you add 1 QB rating point to each of Brady's performances, it'll have much more marginal utility to the team than if you added 1 QB rating point to Manning's performances, which does not necessarily help his team out that much. For example, ff you add 1 point to the games that Manning tanks, it probably doesn't affect the outcome... the same is true if you add 1 point to the games that Manning goes gangbusters on his opponent.
Getting back to standard deviation, I liken Brady's performance to that of a value stock that guys like Warren Buffet likes to buy: you'll get consistently good returns and when you cash out, you'll be a wealthy man. Manning, on the other hand, is like a high yield/high risk investment (say a junk bond or startup tech stock), you could see it fly through the roof one day and crash and burn the next... usually only fools purchase these types of investments.
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The only hope the Colts have had in winning playoff games in the past has been on Manning's arm. And, even when he was very successful, the Colts couldn't win.I'm not saying Brady isn't great, just that Manning could be perfect and the Colts still lose in the playoffs with their defense.This is the very reason why people need to give the "Manning is a choker" line a rest.Brady wouldn't have won if put in Mannings place in Indy. Peyton would have won if in Brady's place.I do happen to think Belichick would have won if in Dungy's place, however.
