Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Hello everyone. I have been bailing on the Thursday Night games due to time restraints but I researched this game for a while last night and thought I would fire up a thread and see what you all think about the Thursday night game. They happen so fast and you barely have time to sift thru the IR, see who is actually playing but I have some interesting numbers to share.
Arizona at St Louis(+1.5)
The Cardinals are 4-0 and only about a point favorite coming into St Louis. With a perfect record you might expect the line to be steeper but perhaps Vegas and others can see a little bit further than just Arizona's record. Let's start with Arizona and work our way over to St Louis.
Snap counts last week...Ryan Williams 33...William Powell 36. Now don't read too much into this as I figure Miami was shutting down the run rather easily due in part to a very inept OL where the RT-Bobbie Massie surrendered 5 sacks mostly to Cameron Wake who had not recorded a sack prior to that game. The run blocking was even worse and a lot of their guys get pushed into the backfield throughout the game or at least did this past weekend. How on Earth is Arizona winning all these football games? At WR, Michael Floyd is starting to come on and his snap count is rising even though Andre Roberts is more than filling up the WR2 role at the moment. Floyd has had 36 and 32 snaps the last 2 weeks, that is good news for dynasty owners and the Cards are bringing him along slowly.
Cards have rushing totals of 43, 102, 99, and then a low mark of 28 yards last weekend. The Rams have been doing very well in pass coverage which we will get to but I want to spotlight their run defense which gets a lot of bad press. Teams are not enjoying success with Finnegan taking away half the field so it would be logical that teams try and run the ball a lot since it seems the better of the two options. The DB5 Fletcher is also playing at a high level and is on the field a lot. He is allowing a 25 QbR and Finnegan only 36.7 with a couple interceptions already. You see 2 games where the Rams allowed 150-175 yards on the ground but the real damage was done by Marshawn Lynch last week and if you read my threads you know I feel he is a top 5 back when the OL is factored in, so I don't think the Rams are terrible in rush defense. In fact the MLB-Laurinaitis had been doing very well in run support until he had 3 missed tackles(MT) last week but again I put that on Lynch and his ability to break tackles and make folks miss. Laurinaitis had zero stops last week against Seattle but 5 the previous week in Chicago.
Seattle fans won't want to hear this but St Louis had 14 MT last week which is about double the normal output by them, the Seahawks should have beaten St Louis. The Rams have 8 defensive turnovers so far and a lot of that is due to Finnegan and Fisher who is coaching this team up on defense. On offense the Rams are not doing well. They only have totals of 250, 160, and 286 in 3 of their 4 games. Under 300 yds consistently is a recipe for disaster. I think I would sit Steven Jackson and that groin this week. Did you know the Arizona Cardinals have 10 turnovers on defense this year? The Cards are getting some solid play from guys you won't hear about much so I thought I would mention their OLBs O'Brien Schofield and Sam Acho, both are doing very well in this 3-4 set they play which a lot of times is a 2-4-5 and the Cards will take the NT Dan Williams out of these sets. Schofield has 6 stops the last 2 weeks, 2 sacks, 2 more QBhits, and 3 Qbhurries, and Acho is a guy they like to blitz, 304 sans for this guy and zero MT on the season. ILB-Daryl Washington has 4 sacks on the season and 17 stops, guy is getting it done inside. The Cards get a lot of press for Peterson and Campbell but their are other pieces here that deserve some hype. They got torched last week especially William Gay but can Bradford exploit them again on Thursday Night?
The key match ups are going to be Larry Fitzgerald vs Courtland Finnegan and I think Fitz will have a slow night occasionally reeling in a couple passes but I would not expect big numbers form him. It would take balls to sit him but don't be surprised if Roberts or Floyd end up with slightly better numbers due to the match up. The Safeties for the Rams are not that good and can be burnt on the long ball if Kolb has some time in the pocket. Chris Long and Robert Quinn are starting to become a nice force on the DE spots for the Rams who had something like 18 QbHur last week against Seattle. The Cards are going to have their hands full trying to pass protect. I see them going after the Rams on the ground so I like Ryan Williams this week despite a slow performance against the Miami Dolphins last Sunday.
RB
Exploit-Ryan Williams...Powell had more snaps but he was not given any carries, look for Williams to take control this week.
Avoid-Steven Jackson...if Daryl Richardson were to start, I would be interested.
WR
Avoid-Rams WRs despite what Hartline and Bess did last week, would not bank on the Rams on doing the same. Amendola if you must but again I would think not much more than a 5/50 type performance if that's enough for you. I expect a defensive struggle or at least a low point total for the Rams.
Exploit-There really isn't a true exploit here. Hard to tell folks that Roberts might be the better play. Fitz hopefully can get double digits in PPR leagues, maybe he can rip one off and get some YAC on a couple throws. Janoris Jenkins is the other DB I failed to mention for the Rams, he is playing well the last 2 weeks.
Kevin Kolb has had decent performances the last couple of weeks but I anticipate a quiet night at least until the Cards can get some type of ground game going and force the Rams to play up in the box more. Sam Bradford perhaps in 2 QB leagues but otherwise I would think no this week. Don't chase what Tannehill did.
Final Score: Arizona 17...St Louis 16, defensive score either way could be the turning point.
Let's hear from the locals and anyone with an interest in this football game.
Arizona at St Louis(+1.5)
The Cardinals are 4-0 and only about a point favorite coming into St Louis. With a perfect record you might expect the line to be steeper but perhaps Vegas and others can see a little bit further than just Arizona's record. Let's start with Arizona and work our way over to St Louis.
Snap counts last week...Ryan Williams 33...William Powell 36. Now don't read too much into this as I figure Miami was shutting down the run rather easily due in part to a very inept OL where the RT-Bobbie Massie surrendered 5 sacks mostly to Cameron Wake who had not recorded a sack prior to that game. The run blocking was even worse and a lot of their guys get pushed into the backfield throughout the game or at least did this past weekend. How on Earth is Arizona winning all these football games? At WR, Michael Floyd is starting to come on and his snap count is rising even though Andre Roberts is more than filling up the WR2 role at the moment. Floyd has had 36 and 32 snaps the last 2 weeks, that is good news for dynasty owners and the Cards are bringing him along slowly.
Cards have rushing totals of 43, 102, 99, and then a low mark of 28 yards last weekend. The Rams have been doing very well in pass coverage which we will get to but I want to spotlight their run defense which gets a lot of bad press. Teams are not enjoying success with Finnegan taking away half the field so it would be logical that teams try and run the ball a lot since it seems the better of the two options. The DB5 Fletcher is also playing at a high level and is on the field a lot. He is allowing a 25 QbR and Finnegan only 36.7 with a couple interceptions already. You see 2 games where the Rams allowed 150-175 yards on the ground but the real damage was done by Marshawn Lynch last week and if you read my threads you know I feel he is a top 5 back when the OL is factored in, so I don't think the Rams are terrible in rush defense. In fact the MLB-Laurinaitis had been doing very well in run support until he had 3 missed tackles(MT) last week but again I put that on Lynch and his ability to break tackles and make folks miss. Laurinaitis had zero stops last week against Seattle but 5 the previous week in Chicago.
Seattle fans won't want to hear this but St Louis had 14 MT last week which is about double the normal output by them, the Seahawks should have beaten St Louis. The Rams have 8 defensive turnovers so far and a lot of that is due to Finnegan and Fisher who is coaching this team up on defense. On offense the Rams are not doing well. They only have totals of 250, 160, and 286 in 3 of their 4 games. Under 300 yds consistently is a recipe for disaster. I think I would sit Steven Jackson and that groin this week. Did you know the Arizona Cardinals have 10 turnovers on defense this year? The Cards are getting some solid play from guys you won't hear about much so I thought I would mention their OLBs O'Brien Schofield and Sam Acho, both are doing very well in this 3-4 set they play which a lot of times is a 2-4-5 and the Cards will take the NT Dan Williams out of these sets. Schofield has 6 stops the last 2 weeks, 2 sacks, 2 more QBhits, and 3 Qbhurries, and Acho is a guy they like to blitz, 304 sans for this guy and zero MT on the season. ILB-Daryl Washington has 4 sacks on the season and 17 stops, guy is getting it done inside. The Cards get a lot of press for Peterson and Campbell but their are other pieces here that deserve some hype. They got torched last week especially William Gay but can Bradford exploit them again on Thursday Night?
The key match ups are going to be Larry Fitzgerald vs Courtland Finnegan and I think Fitz will have a slow night occasionally reeling in a couple passes but I would not expect big numbers form him. It would take balls to sit him but don't be surprised if Roberts or Floyd end up with slightly better numbers due to the match up. The Safeties for the Rams are not that good and can be burnt on the long ball if Kolb has some time in the pocket. Chris Long and Robert Quinn are starting to become a nice force on the DE spots for the Rams who had something like 18 QbHur last week against Seattle. The Cards are going to have their hands full trying to pass protect. I see them going after the Rams on the ground so I like Ryan Williams this week despite a slow performance against the Miami Dolphins last Sunday.
RB
Exploit-Ryan Williams...Powell had more snaps but he was not given any carries, look for Williams to take control this week.
Avoid-Steven Jackson...if Daryl Richardson were to start, I would be interested.
WR
Avoid-Rams WRs despite what Hartline and Bess did last week, would not bank on the Rams on doing the same. Amendola if you must but again I would think not much more than a 5/50 type performance if that's enough for you. I expect a defensive struggle or at least a low point total for the Rams.
Exploit-There really isn't a true exploit here. Hard to tell folks that Roberts might be the better play. Fitz hopefully can get double digits in PPR leagues, maybe he can rip one off and get some YAC on a couple throws. Janoris Jenkins is the other DB I failed to mention for the Rams, he is playing well the last 2 weeks.
Kevin Kolb has had decent performances the last couple of weeks but I anticipate a quiet night at least until the Cards can get some type of ground game going and force the Rams to play up in the box more. Sam Bradford perhaps in 2 QB leagues but otherwise I would think no this week. Don't chase what Tannehill did.
Final Score: Arizona 17...St Louis 16, defensive score either way could be the turning point.
Let's hear from the locals and anyone with an interest in this football game.
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The numbers and the match ups would lead me to believe that the Cards will try and run the football. They should have lost last week had Miami not turned it over midfield with under 3 minutes remaining up 21-14. They gotta know if they can't run it is going to be lights out Thursday Night. I also like Williams to snare a few screen passes as they can run Fitz and Roberts deep some and take Finnegan with them, opens up the flats, should be space for Williams to operate if they can get him the ball. I like Williams but if folks have better options or other options please feel free to post them up. I might not get to all of them until later tonight but I wanted to get some conversation going on the game tomorrow night.
In all seriousness, I wouldn't feel comfortable starting anyone in this game other than the defenses and Zurlein (I would start Fitzgerald, but I wouldn't be comfortable about it).
