Thursday Night Football - Bad for Fantasy? (1 Viewer)

[packseasontix]

I haven't done the in-depth study of the stats but seeing if others have input from that side of things.

In my mind:

Thursday is good for Running Backs and Defenses

Thursday is bad for Quarterbacks, Wide Receivers, and Tight Ends

See the stats below but you will notice that while players throw for more yardage on Thursday Nights they actually have LESS TOUCHDOWNS. I think this piece is important and while I haven't looked into the running back side I believe they benefit from extra touches around the goal line and get an extra TD or two that normally would go to WRs on a Sunday.

Out of 61 games (122 QBs started a game) from 2006-2013 on Thursday Night

32 games with 3 plus passing TDs (5 of which were week 1) - 26% QB Achieve

31 games with 300+ passing yards (4 of which were week 1) - 25% QB Achieve

52 games with 2 plus passing TDs - 42% QB Achieve

81 games with 200+ passing yards - 66% QB Achieve

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Out of 25 games (50 QBs stated a game) from 2011-2013 on Thursday Night

8 games with 3 plus passing TDs (3 of which were week 1) - 16% QB Achieve

14 games with 300+ passing yards (4 of which were week 1) - 28% QB Achieve

18 games with 2 plus passing TDs - 36% QB Achieve

31 games with 200+ passing yards - 62% QB Achieve

Out of 222 games played on Sunday (444 QBs started a game) for 2012 on Sundays

87 games with 3 plus passing TDs (3 of which were week 1) - 20% QB Achieve

110 games with 300+ passing yards (4 of which were week 1) - 25% QB Achieve

197 games with 2 plus passing TDs - 44% QB Achieve

314 games with 200+ passing yards - 71% QB Achieve

 

[Modog814]

I think you're numbers are actually saying the opposite.

If you take the 2012 on Sundays as the "true" likelihood of experiencing a stated feat, then in 25 thursday night games you'd expect:

10 3+ TD games, we saw 8. Well with in normal variance

22 2+ TD games, we say 18. Again well within a normal variance

However, we'd expect

5.5 300+ yard games, and we've seen 14.

9 200+ yard games, and we've seen 31.

Looking at this now, this seems off. Are you sure there were only 47 and 80 200/300 yard passing games last year?

 

[packseasontix]

Correct looks like there was an issue with the numbers with how the year was being sorted out. I have updated now

 

[Modog814]

In that case, I say the numbers are insignificant (mathematically) speaking.

Seems just like normal variance to me.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Ok, wait, the stats and numbers are great.

But what is the difference of teams that played on a Monday night and then had to play the following week on a Sunday afternoon?

Maybe I'm wrong but look it up because I was always under the impression teams did somewhat worse the week after a MNF game.

And if that's so (I said if) I think the explanation has always been that the team post-MNF had a shorter week of preparation. And if that's the case for Monday to Sunday (from 6 intervening days to 5) imagine what it is for Sunday to Monday (from 6 intervening days to 3).

Thursday is good for ... Defenses.

My impression of TNF games - and it's just an impression - is that sometimes to oftentimes one team is underprepared. Typically it's the team that has to travel, but again not always. Bad teams seem worse, good teams have errors. Last night, well maybe the NFL is catching on to the iggles, and maybe the KC defense is just that good, and maybe Vick returned to error prone ways and maybe Reid has the whole book on all of Vicks's tendencies, but I would also say that a rookie NFL HC with a complicated playbook was probably also affected by having very little time to prepare.

 

[Chaka]

IIRC I read somewhere last season that Thursday night games are lower scoring on average than Sunday games.

 

[ImTheScientist]

Start your studs.