EBF
Footballguy
After watching tall TE prospects like Jerramy Stevens and Marcedes Lewis fail to meet expectations, I started to wonder whether height was really an asset at the TE position. Height might allow a receiver to win jump balls over smaller defenders, but it typically comes at a significant cost of lateral agility and quickness. I think this is why guys like Brad Cottam and Leonard Pope have been complete failures as NFL players while shorter TEs like Chris Cooley, Kellen Winslow, Vernon Davis, and Dallas Clark have thrived. I decided to look at elite TE prospects and evaluate their production and height.
I looked at every draft class between 2000-2007. I decided to exclude players from the 2008 and 2009 drafts because they haven't been in the league long enough to reach their full potential. I limited my study to players who were selected in the top 100 picks of the NFL draft partially for the sake of simplicity and partially because I think most of the elite TE prospects fall into this range. I counted 39 prospects (excluding Kevin Everett because of his unique medical situation).
2000
Bubba Franks
Anthony Becht
Erron Kinney
2001
Todd Heap
Alge Crumpler
Sean Brewer
Shad Meier
2002
Jeremy Shockey
Daniel Graham
Jerramy Stevens
Doug Jolley
Matt Schobel
Chris Baker
2003
Dallas Clark
Bennie Joppru
LJ Smith
Jason Witten
Mike Seidman
Visanthe Shiancoe
2004
Kellen Winslow
Ben Watson
Ben Troupe
Kris Wilson
Ben Hartsock
Chris Cooley
2005
Heath Miller
Alex Smith
2006
Vernon Davis
Marcedes Lewis
Joe Klopfenstein
Anthony Fasano
Tony Scheffler
Leonard Pope
David Thomas
Dominique Byrd
Owen Daniels
2007
Greg Olsen
Zach Miller
Matt Spaeth
The first thing I did was calculate the average height of this group. The number I came up with was 6'4.4". Then I looked at each player's best statistical season in terms of receiving yards and calculated the average "peak season" for this group. 522 yards was the number I came up with. The average top 100 draft pick TE is 6'4.4" with a peak season of 522 receiving yards.
As a reference, I also ranked the TEs by height. The number next to each player's name is his height in inches above 6 feet.
Pope 7.6
Spaeth 7.1
------------------------------
Stevens 6.6
Lewis 6.3
------------------------------
Olsen 5.7
Klopfenstein 5.6
Witten 5.6
Franks 5.5
Becht 5.5
Kinney 5.5
Scheffler 5.3
H. Miller 5.0
Meier 5.0
------------------------------
Shockey 4.6
Schobel 4.6
Heap 4.5
Seidman 4.4
Z. Miller 4.3
Shiancoe 4.3
Troupe 4.3
Joppru 4.2
Jolley 4.2
Fasano 4.1
A. Smith 4.1
Hartsock 4.0
------------------------------
Winslow 3.7
Cooley 3.7
Brewer 3.6
Watson 3.4
Clark 3.3
Daniels 3.3
V. Davis 3.2
LJ Smith 3.2
Graham 3.1
Baker 3.1
D. Thomas 3.1
------------------------------
Byrd 2.5
Crumpler 2.4
------------------------------
Wilson 1.7
From there I decided to look at each individual TE's peak season compared to the average peak season for the group. I came up with the following quality rankings based on the amount of yards above the average:
Witten (+623)
Winslow (+584)
Clark (+584)
V. Davis (+443)
Shockey (+372)
Crumpler (+355)
Daniels (+340)
Heap (+333)
Cooley (+327)
Z. Miller (+283)
H. Miller (+267)
LJ Smith (+160)
Scheffler (+123)
Watson (+121)
Olsen (+90)
Shiancoe (+70)
Stevens (+32)
Kinney (+19)
Troupe (+8)
Lewis (-4)
Fasano (-68)
Franks (-80)
Graham (-113)
Baker (-113)
Jolley (-113)
A. Smith (-137)
D. Thomas (-166)
Becht (-166)
Schobel (-190)
Pope (-284)
Klopfenstein (-296)
Wilson (-342)
Meier (-363)
Hartsock (-384)
Spaeth (-386)
Seidman (-399)
Byrd (-478)
Joppru (-522)
Brewer (-522)
These lists are interesting to look at, but they don't tell us whether there's a correlation between height and success, so I decided to exclude all of the players whose peak season fell below the average. That gave me the following 19 players:
Witten (+623)
Winslow (+584)
Clark (+584)
V. Davis (+443)
Shockey (+372)
Crumpler (+355)
Daniels (+340)
Heap (+333)
Cooley (+327)
Z. Miller (+283)
H. Miller (+267)
LJ Smith (+160)
Scheffler (+123)
Watson (+121)
Olsen (+90)
Shiancoe (+70)
Stevens (+32)
Kinney (+19)
Troupe (+8)
The average height of this group is 6'4.3", only one tenth of an inch below the average of the entire group. It doesn't look like there's a difference in height between successful TEs and unsuccessful ones, but I think this list is misleading. Many of the players at the bottom were mediocre talents who fluked their way to one good year. I decided to remove these players from the equation and limit the list to players who had multiple "good" seasons (seasons above 522 receiving yards). This gave me the following group:
Witten (+623)
Winslow (+584)
Clark (+584)
V. Davis (+443)
Shockey (+372)
Crumpler (+355)
Daniels (+340)
Heap (+333)
Cooley (+327)
Z. Miller (+283)
H. Miller (+267)
LJ Smith (+160)
Scheffler (+123)
Olsen (+90)
Shiancoe (+70)
The average height of this group is 6'4.2", only two tenths of an inch below the average of the initial group of 39. Once again there doesn't appear to be a strong correlation between height and success, but what if we become even more selective and limit our list to the very best of the best, the TEs who have achieved the rare feat of an 800+ yard season?
Witten 1145
Winslow 1106
Clark 1106
V. Davis 965
Shockey 894
Crumpler 877
Daniels 862
Heap 855
Cooley 849
Z. Miller 805
The average height of this group is 6'3.9", a full half of an inch shorter than the average of the entire group. To me this suggests that height might actually impede a TE prospect's receiving ability. Let's look at the data.
average height of a top 100 TE prospect: 6'4.4"
average career peak: 522 yards
average height of TEs with at least one good season: 6'4.3"
percentage of TEs with at least one good season: 48.7%
average height of TEs with multiple good seasons: 6'4.2"
percentage of TEs with multiple good seasons: 35.9%
average height of TEs with at least one elite season: 6'3.9"
percentage of TEs with at least one elite season: 25.6%
% of drafted TEs between 6'7.0-6'7.9": 5.2
% of drafted TEs between 6'6.0-6'6.9": 5.2
% of drafted TEs between 6'5.0-6'5.9": 23.1
% of drafted TEs between 6'4.0-6'4.9": 30.8
% of drafted TEs between 6'3.0-6'3.9": 28.2
% of drafted TEs between 6'2.0-6'2.9": 5.2
% of drafted TEs between 6'1.0-6'1.9": 2.6
where good = at least one 522+ yard season...
% of good TEs between 6'7.0-6'7.9": 0
% of good TEs between 6'6.0-6'6.9": 5.3
% of good TEs between 6'5.0-6'5.9": 21.1
% of good TEs between 6'4.0-6'4.9": 26.3
% of good TEs between 6'3.0-6'3.9": 36.8
% of good TEs between 6'2.0-6'2.9": 5.3
% of good TEs between 6'1.0-6'1.9": 0
where elite = at least one 800+ yard season...
% of elite TEs between 6'7.0-6'7.9": 0
% of elite TEs between 6'6.0-6'6.9": 0
% of elite TEs between 6'5.0-6'5.9": 10
% of elite TEs between 6'4.0-6'4.9": 30
% of elite TEs between 6'3.0-6'3.9": 50
% of elite TEs between 6'2.0-6'2.9": 10
% of elite TEs between 6'1.0-6'1.9": 0
What, if anything, can we conclude from this? The first thing we should notice is that elite TEs are rare. Of the 39 TEs drafted in the top 100, only 10 have achieved an elite season. That's roughly 1 in every 4.
The second thing we should notice is that very tall and very short TEs are rare. 84.2% of the TEs drafted in the top 100 are between 6'3.0"-6'5.9". Since very tall and very short TEs are rare and since elite TEs are rare, it might not mean anything that there hasn't been an elite 6'6.0-6'7.9" TE yet. There were only 4 players picked in that height range between 2000-2007. The fact that none of them has registered an elite season yet might be a matter of scarcity and variance rather than ability.
At the same time, I think the results are interesting. 28.2% of top 100 prospects are between 6'3.0-6'3.9", yet this group represents 36.8% of the good TEs and a whopping 50% of the elite TEs. The sample size is too small to draw meaningful conclusions, but it certainly seems to suggest that 6'3.0-6'3.9" is the actual "ideal" height for a receiving TE.
When people talk about young players like 6'6.2" Rob Gronkowski or 6'6.1" Martellus Bennett as having "great size," they might want to reconsider. Jason Witten is currently the only elite receiving TE above 6'5" (though Greg Olsen, Heath Miller, and Tony Scheffler could conceivably join him).
I looked at every draft class between 2000-2007. I decided to exclude players from the 2008 and 2009 drafts because they haven't been in the league long enough to reach their full potential. I limited my study to players who were selected in the top 100 picks of the NFL draft partially for the sake of simplicity and partially because I think most of the elite TE prospects fall into this range. I counted 39 prospects (excluding Kevin Everett because of his unique medical situation).
2000
Bubba Franks
Anthony Becht
Erron Kinney
2001
Todd Heap
Alge Crumpler
Sean Brewer
Shad Meier
2002
Jeremy Shockey
Daniel Graham
Jerramy Stevens
Doug Jolley
Matt Schobel
Chris Baker
2003
Dallas Clark
Bennie Joppru
LJ Smith
Jason Witten
Mike Seidman
Visanthe Shiancoe
2004
Kellen Winslow
Ben Watson
Ben Troupe
Kris Wilson
Ben Hartsock
Chris Cooley
2005
Heath Miller
Alex Smith
2006
Vernon Davis
Marcedes Lewis
Joe Klopfenstein
Anthony Fasano
Tony Scheffler
Leonard Pope
David Thomas
Dominique Byrd
Owen Daniels
2007
Greg Olsen
Zach Miller
Matt Spaeth
The first thing I did was calculate the average height of this group. The number I came up with was 6'4.4". Then I looked at each player's best statistical season in terms of receiving yards and calculated the average "peak season" for this group. 522 yards was the number I came up with. The average top 100 draft pick TE is 6'4.4" with a peak season of 522 receiving yards.
As a reference, I also ranked the TEs by height. The number next to each player's name is his height in inches above 6 feet.
Pope 7.6
Spaeth 7.1
------------------------------
Stevens 6.6
Lewis 6.3
------------------------------
Olsen 5.7
Klopfenstein 5.6
Witten 5.6
Franks 5.5
Becht 5.5
Kinney 5.5
Scheffler 5.3
H. Miller 5.0
Meier 5.0
------------------------------
Shockey 4.6
Schobel 4.6
Heap 4.5
Seidman 4.4
Z. Miller 4.3
Shiancoe 4.3
Troupe 4.3
Joppru 4.2
Jolley 4.2
Fasano 4.1
A. Smith 4.1
Hartsock 4.0
------------------------------
Winslow 3.7
Cooley 3.7
Brewer 3.6
Watson 3.4
Clark 3.3
Daniels 3.3
V. Davis 3.2
LJ Smith 3.2
Graham 3.1
Baker 3.1
D. Thomas 3.1
------------------------------
Byrd 2.5
Crumpler 2.4
------------------------------
Wilson 1.7
From there I decided to look at each individual TE's peak season compared to the average peak season for the group. I came up with the following quality rankings based on the amount of yards above the average:
Witten (+623)
Winslow (+584)
Clark (+584)
V. Davis (+443)
Shockey (+372)
Crumpler (+355)
Daniels (+340)
Heap (+333)
Cooley (+327)
Z. Miller (+283)
H. Miller (+267)
LJ Smith (+160)
Scheffler (+123)
Watson (+121)
Olsen (+90)
Shiancoe (+70)
Stevens (+32)
Kinney (+19)
Troupe (+8)
Lewis (-4)
Fasano (-68)
Franks (-80)
Graham (-113)
Baker (-113)
Jolley (-113)
A. Smith (-137)
D. Thomas (-166)
Becht (-166)
Schobel (-190)
Pope (-284)
Klopfenstein (-296)
Wilson (-342)
Meier (-363)
Hartsock (-384)
Spaeth (-386)
Seidman (-399)
Byrd (-478)
Joppru (-522)
Brewer (-522)
These lists are interesting to look at, but they don't tell us whether there's a correlation between height and success, so I decided to exclude all of the players whose peak season fell below the average. That gave me the following 19 players:
Witten (+623)
Winslow (+584)
Clark (+584)
V. Davis (+443)
Shockey (+372)
Crumpler (+355)
Daniels (+340)
Heap (+333)
Cooley (+327)
Z. Miller (+283)
H. Miller (+267)
LJ Smith (+160)
Scheffler (+123)
Watson (+121)
Olsen (+90)
Shiancoe (+70)
Stevens (+32)
Kinney (+19)
Troupe (+8)
The average height of this group is 6'4.3", only one tenth of an inch below the average of the entire group. It doesn't look like there's a difference in height between successful TEs and unsuccessful ones, but I think this list is misleading. Many of the players at the bottom were mediocre talents who fluked their way to one good year. I decided to remove these players from the equation and limit the list to players who had multiple "good" seasons (seasons above 522 receiving yards). This gave me the following group:
Witten (+623)
Winslow (+584)
Clark (+584)
V. Davis (+443)
Shockey (+372)
Crumpler (+355)
Daniels (+340)
Heap (+333)
Cooley (+327)
Z. Miller (+283)
H. Miller (+267)
LJ Smith (+160)
Scheffler (+123)
Olsen (+90)
Shiancoe (+70)
The average height of this group is 6'4.2", only two tenths of an inch below the average of the initial group of 39. Once again there doesn't appear to be a strong correlation between height and success, but what if we become even more selective and limit our list to the very best of the best, the TEs who have achieved the rare feat of an 800+ yard season?
Witten 1145
Winslow 1106
Clark 1106
V. Davis 965
Shockey 894
Crumpler 877
Daniels 862
Heap 855
Cooley 849
Z. Miller 805
The average height of this group is 6'3.9", a full half of an inch shorter than the average of the entire group. To me this suggests that height might actually impede a TE prospect's receiving ability. Let's look at the data.
average height of a top 100 TE prospect: 6'4.4"
average career peak: 522 yards
average height of TEs with at least one good season: 6'4.3"
percentage of TEs with at least one good season: 48.7%
average height of TEs with multiple good seasons: 6'4.2"
percentage of TEs with multiple good seasons: 35.9%
average height of TEs with at least one elite season: 6'3.9"
percentage of TEs with at least one elite season: 25.6%
% of drafted TEs between 6'7.0-6'7.9": 5.2
% of drafted TEs between 6'6.0-6'6.9": 5.2
% of drafted TEs between 6'5.0-6'5.9": 23.1
% of drafted TEs between 6'4.0-6'4.9": 30.8
% of drafted TEs between 6'3.0-6'3.9": 28.2
% of drafted TEs between 6'2.0-6'2.9": 5.2
% of drafted TEs between 6'1.0-6'1.9": 2.6
where good = at least one 522+ yard season...
% of good TEs between 6'7.0-6'7.9": 0
% of good TEs between 6'6.0-6'6.9": 5.3
% of good TEs between 6'5.0-6'5.9": 21.1
% of good TEs between 6'4.0-6'4.9": 26.3
% of good TEs between 6'3.0-6'3.9": 36.8
% of good TEs between 6'2.0-6'2.9": 5.3
% of good TEs between 6'1.0-6'1.9": 0
where elite = at least one 800+ yard season...
% of elite TEs between 6'7.0-6'7.9": 0
% of elite TEs between 6'6.0-6'6.9": 0
% of elite TEs between 6'5.0-6'5.9": 10
% of elite TEs between 6'4.0-6'4.9": 30
% of elite TEs between 6'3.0-6'3.9": 50
% of elite TEs between 6'2.0-6'2.9": 10
% of elite TEs between 6'1.0-6'1.9": 0
What, if anything, can we conclude from this? The first thing we should notice is that elite TEs are rare. Of the 39 TEs drafted in the top 100, only 10 have achieved an elite season. That's roughly 1 in every 4.
The second thing we should notice is that very tall and very short TEs are rare. 84.2% of the TEs drafted in the top 100 are between 6'3.0"-6'5.9". Since very tall and very short TEs are rare and since elite TEs are rare, it might not mean anything that there hasn't been an elite 6'6.0-6'7.9" TE yet. There were only 4 players picked in that height range between 2000-2007. The fact that none of them has registered an elite season yet might be a matter of scarcity and variance rather than ability.
At the same time, I think the results are interesting. 28.2% of top 100 prospects are between 6'3.0-6'3.9", yet this group represents 36.8% of the good TEs and a whopping 50% of the elite TEs. The sample size is too small to draw meaningful conclusions, but it certainly seems to suggest that 6'3.0-6'3.9" is the actual "ideal" height for a receiving TE.
When people talk about young players like 6'6.2" Rob Gronkowski or 6'6.1" Martellus Bennett as having "great size," they might want to reconsider. Jason Witten is currently the only elite receiving TE above 6'5" (though Greg Olsen, Heath Miller, and Tony Scheffler could conceivably join him).