Tiki's floor is lower than you speculate, IMO. His last two years with the heavy workload are noted, but I think Tiki is more likely to put up '03 numbers than '05 numbers, and anticipate Brown having more total yards and TDs than Tiki.
That's why we play the game. It would be boring if we all thought alike. I can see Brown having more TDs, but I can't see him having more yards. Two reasons:1. Miami is being overhyped due to winning their final 6 games last year. They won 4 of those games by a combined 9 points. Three of the victories were against 4-12 teams, one vs. 5-11, one vs. the Patriots who basically lost on purpose. Their only quality win was at San Diego, who was arguably looking ahead to the undefeated Cotls in the very next game.
2. The Giants in 2003 were an absolute mess. Jason Wood reminded me of the problems the Giants had on the offense (especially the OL), on defense, and Jim Fassel, Kerry Collins, etc. They are clearly a better team now coming off a division championship and once again a playoff contender.
I'm all for trying to pick emerging players. You can get into trouble relying too much on last year's stats. But I prefer to target the breakthrough players a little bit later than the first five picks of the draft.
Good points. Using the #4 overall pick on a RB with 900 career rushing yards is somewhat of a role of the dice. You point out the Phins relatively easy schedule in the 2nd half of '05. This year's schedule is even softer, and the Giants schedule is brutal. Another edge to Brown.
It will be interesting to see where the RBs fall in line this year. After this discussion, I'm convinced it will be SJax and Jordan following the big 3, with Tiki and Brown outside of the top 15.
Just for fun, tgunz...According to Clayton Gray's SoS projections, Miami expects to see 4.2% easier rushing defenses while the NYG expect to face 1.6% more difficult rushing defenses. Edge to R.Brown. Over the playoff weeks 14-16, the advantage is extremely small -- very slight edge to Brown.
Now I get to the fun part.
In their final 8 games of last season, the Giants opponents had a combined 2005 record of 67-61 (.523 pct.). Their 2006 opponents had a combined 2005 record of 139-117 (.543 pct.).
The Dolphins equivalent numbers are: 52-76 to conclude 2005 (.406), and 120-136 for 2006 (.469).
The Giants 2006 opponents are .020 pct. better than they were to conclude 2005.
The Dolphins opponents are .063 pct. points better in 2006 than they were to conclude 2005.
Recall that Tiki averaged 22 FBG ppg during the final 8 games of 2005.
Brown averaged 7.5 FBG ppg during the final 8 games of 2005.
So after those initial small edges to Brown, the remaining analysis shows very large edges to Tiki.
I'll readily admit that these statistics are almost completely irrelevant to the 2006 draft. Yet they do point out that Barber did quite well against nearly the same level of competition the Giants expect to face in 2006. Brown of course was splitting time with Ricky, but you need to triple his numbers to get to the same production level as Tiki. And the teams Brown faces in 2006 will be stronger than the teams he faced in the second half of 2005.
But for even doing this analysis in the first place...
(I definitely need to get out more)
1.6 T.Barber1.7 C.Portis1.8 R.Johnson1.9 R.Brown1.10----on the clockNo huge shockers except I think Edge was a reach at 1.5. True to form RB's are flying off the block the first round. I'm looking at a #1 WR for my 2nd pick. (Holt, L.Fitz, T.O, C.Johnson) If i'm not comfortable with who's there on my pick I'll probably go C.Taylor or W.Dunn. Or I might just reach for R.Bush here. 
