Tim Tebow - Value in a Dynasty (1 Viewer)

[Quint]

assuming 12 Team/PPR/Flex - TDs = 4QB, 6RB/WR/TE

i've got this guy on my bench and would love to get rid of him. too much drama in NYJ, no definitive answers from the Jets regarding his actual role in the offense for 2012 and beyond, and i'd rather keep a rookie with upside than have him take up a roster spot.

apologies if this is a Honda - i searched the Shark Pool for the last hour or so and didn't find anything addressing this question:

in a dynasty league, what is this guy really worth? third tier RB? backup TE? 2013 2nd rounder?

all opinions welcome.

 

[bostonfred]

He will get opportunities for playing time in nfl games, he will get opportunities to work on passing, he has a backup job right now and would become a commodity if he got to start, and he is young enough to potentially gather interest in free agency or trade. If your league values rushing qbs heavily, he's definitely worth holding onto, and is a good buy low if you have deep enough rosters or you're rebuilding. Im fairly well convinced that he's not going to be worth anything this year without a sanchez injury, so he's not even rosterable in redraft, but in dynasty he should be rostered in all but the shortest rostered leagues imo.

 

[NCPanthersFan]

I am happy to have him as a backup 2nd or 3rd QB on my dynasty team. It was not what I expected when I drafted him in the 2nd round (had to trade for another QB to make up for that mistake)but it was not because he did not produce. I am willing to ride it to see if he can prevail again one day. If so he immediately jumps to the front of the depth chart until his rushing capability is gone or proves he can pass the ball consistently.

 

[fsufan]

do not want him on my team, see no value

 

[ShaHBucks]

I think he's garbage in real life until they realize he's a running back. He's good for fantasy football like Vince Young was but he can't pass just like Vince Young. I would sell him as soon as possible because hes not going to reinvent the wheel at qb. He is a asset that you can sell as soon as he gets the media attention again. I'd swing for a guy like Kolb who actually has a decent resume as a Eagle but is getting killed by the media, or a Ponder/Dalton. Somebody that will stick in the league. perfect time to sell would have been after the Steelers playoff

 

[Sabertooth]

I think he's starting in Jacksonville next season. Just a hunch, he will return to Florida like Caesar with the chariots and everything. At that point he has value because he is an unconventional scoring machine in fantasy football.

 

[Avery]

I hate just about everything about his game. I think he puts the Qb position back 50 years and watching him "pass" the ball can be embarrassing.

Having said that, in the right offensive "system", he was a top 10 QB when he started.

I'll take that potential on my bench at the price he is going for in a dynasty and even in a redraft he has potential to put up points off the bench... and it's not like he has to beat out Payton Manning to get the start this year.

 

[FantasyTrader]

in a dynasty league, what is this guy really worth? third tier RB? backup TE? 2013 2nd rounder? all opinions welcome.

Traded Tebow a few weeks ago for a 2013 3rd rounder - to the owner who finished last in our league in '11, so it's projected to be a high 3rd round pick. My other QB's are Romo, Schaub and Kaepernick. Would rather have a complete boom/bust guy like Kaepernick as my #3 than Tebow because I'd feel okay about dumping him the minute somebody emerges on waivers in-season. With Tebow it seems like you'll always be stuck in that land of the lost where "I can't dump ya but I can't count on ya". I'd almost rather have a high ceiling, low-floor guy as my #3 than Tebow.

 

[doowain]

in a dynasty league, what is this guy really worth? third tier RB? backup TE? 2013 2nd rounder? all opinions welcome.

Traded Tebow a few weeks ago for a 2013 3rd rounder - to the owner who finished last in our league in '11, so it's projected to be a high 3rd round pick. My other QB's are Romo, Schaub and Kaepernick. Would rather have a complete boom/bust guy like Kaepernick as my #3 than Tebow because I'd feel okay about dumping him the minute somebody emerges on waivers in-season. With Tebow it seems like you'll always be stuck in that land of the lost where "I can't dump ya but I can't count on ya". I'd almost rather have a high ceiling, low-floor guy as my #3 than Tebow.

Tebow is THE definition of "high ceiling, low floor".

 

[FantasyTrader]

in a dynasty league, what is this guy really worth? third tier RB? backup TE? 2013 2nd rounder? all opinions welcome.

Traded Tebow a few weeks ago for a 2013 3rd rounder - to the owner who finished last in our league in '11, so it's projected to be a high 3rd round pick. My other QB's are Romo, Schaub and Kaepernick. Would rather have a complete boom/bust guy like Kaepernick as my #3 than Tebow because I'd feel okay about dumping him the minute somebody emerges on waivers in-season. With Tebow it seems like you'll always be stuck in that land of the lost where "I can't dump ya but I can't count on ya". I'd almost rather have a high ceiling, low-floor guy as my #3 than Tebow.

Tebow is THE definition of "high ceiling, low floor".

I used to agree with you in the not too distant past. But I'm finally resigned to the fact that he will never ever be an adequate passer and that puts a hard cap on his ceiling. I'd now define Tebow as "average ceiling, low floor". Just my opinion.

 

[FDC]

But I'm finally resigned to the fact that he will never ever be an adequate passer and that puts a hard cap on his ceiling. I'd now define Tebow as "average ceiling, low floor". Just my opinion.

But if he becomes an adequate passer he is back to having a very high upside. With a decent running game I could see it.

 

[doowain]

in a dynasty league, what is this guy really worth? third tier RB? backup TE? 2013 2nd rounder? all opinions welcome.

Traded Tebow a few weeks ago for a 2013 3rd rounder - to the owner who finished last in our league in '11, so it's projected to be a high 3rd round pick. My other QB's are Romo, Schaub and Kaepernick. Would rather have a complete boom/bust guy like Kaepernick as my #3 than Tebow because I'd feel okay about dumping him the minute somebody emerges on waivers in-season. With Tebow it seems like you'll always be stuck in that land of the lost where "I can't dump ya but I can't count on ya". I'd almost rather have a high ceiling, low-floor guy as my #3 than Tebow.

Tebow is THE definition of "high ceiling, low floor".

I used to agree with you in the not too distant past. But I'm finally resigned to the fact that he will never ever be an adequate passer and that puts a hard cap on his ceiling. I'd now define Tebow as "average ceiling, low floor". Just my opinion.

I know it's your opinion, but I still don't get this. Even as a poor passer, he was QB9 in PPG last year. The final 3 games (the only games he started) of 2010, he was the number 1 overall scorer at QB. If he continues to develop as a passer (only one way to go...and that's up), how is his ceiling anything BUT high?

 

[FantasyTrader]

But I'm finally resigned to the fact that he will never ever be an adequate passer and that puts a hard cap on his ceiling. I'd now define Tebow as "average ceiling, low floor". Just my opinion.

But if he becomes an adequate passer he is back to having a very high upside. With a decent running game I could see it.

Right, which would increase his value. OP was asking what Tebow's value is right now. Not what's possible, but what IS.

 

[DoubleG]

I know it's your opinion, but I still don't get this. Even as a poor passer, he was QB9 in PPG last year. The final 3 games (the only games he started) of 2010, he was the number 1 overall scorer at QB. If he continues to develop as a passer (only one way to go...and that's up), how is his ceiling anything BUT high?

I agree with this 100%. Unless your league doesn't award decent points to QBs for rushing stats, Tebow has top 10 QB upside as a starter. The question is, will he ever be given a starting job again? His value in dynasty leagues is simply a function of how many people in YOUR league beleive the answer to the question above being "yes". To them he is as valuable as a guy like Matt Ryan or Jay Cutler. Obviously, to those who don't think so, his value is about the same as guys named Blaine.

 

[FDC]

But I'm finally resigned to the fact that he will never ever be an adequate passer and that puts a hard cap on his ceiling. I'd now define Tebow as "average ceiling, low floor". Just my opinion.

But if he becomes an adequate passer he is back to having a very high upside. With a decent running game I could see it.

Right, which would increase his value. OP was asking what Tebow's value is right now. Not what's possible, but what IS.

My post did not reference his current value, just your point about his upside. Aside of that point, is 300+yds 2tds in a playoff game vs the Steelers adequate enough for a 1st year starter?I do understand your point on devaluing Tebow if you have 2 solid starters. You can't assume that position for everyone though.

 

[Run It Up]

However much the low end FBs are going for.

 

[moleculo]

Tebow has negative fantasty football value moving forward - dynasty as well as redraft.

In NY, they won't let him become a true passing QB. He's a punt protector, wild-cat QB - Brad Smith on steroids. he will be good for ~10 PPG this year - that's not gonna cut it for a fantasy football startable QB. It would be fine for a RB, WR, or TE, but not fine for QB.

If he does pass Sanchez and becomes a full-time starting QB, he hasn't had the reps to get his passing game in check, and I don't think he'll be very good. I didn't see anything in his first preseason game that was different than what we saw in Denver last year; if anything, he looked less cautious with the ball. So, as a starting QB, he might get you 18-20 PPG, accounting for rushing. Note - that's a slight decrease from last year, I'd expect teams to have a better handle on how to deal with him in 2012.

Again, not very good.

so, IMO he has negative value because he will tempt you to keep him around with all of the hype, feel good stories, and occasional spectacular play. In reality, he's eating up a roster spot, with no possibility to ever become a legit FF starting QB. your best bet is to cut bait.

If Tebow could take a couple of years and get his throwing motion repeatable and accurate, the could become a viable starter. That's not going to happen in NY or FL, it just won't. The Tebowites will demand he start, and will basically prevent him from becoming all that he can be. That, and the fact that football will never be Tebow's #1 off-season priority so the amount of reps/coaching he can take will always be limited.

 

[DoubleG]

Tebow has negative fantasty football value moving forward - dynasty as well as redraft.In NY, they won't let him become a true passing QB. He's a punt protector, wild-cat QB - Brad Smith on steroids. he will be good for ~10 PPG this year - that's not gonna cut it for a fantasy football startable QB. It would be fine for a RB, WR, or TE, but not fine for QB.If he does pass Sanchez and becomes a full-time starting QB, he hasn't had the reps to get his passing game in check, and I don't think he'll be very good. I didn't see anything in his first preseason game that was different than what we saw in Denver last year; if anything, he looked less cautious with the ball. So, as a starting QB, he might get you 18-20 PPG, accounting for rushing. Note - that's a slight decrease from last year, I'd expect teams to have a better handle on how to deal with him in 2012.Again, not very good.so, IMO he has negative value because he will tempt you to keep him around with all of the hype, feel good stories, and occasional spectacular play. In reality, he's eating up a roster spot, with no possibility to ever become a legit FF starting QB. your best bet is to cut bait.If Tebow could take a couple of years and get his throwing motion repeatable and accurate, the could become a viable starter. That's not going to happen in NY or FL, it just won't. The Tebowites will demand he start, and will basically prevent him from becoming all that he can be. That, and the fact that football will never be Tebow's #1 off-season priority so the amount of reps/coaching he can take will always be limited.

I agree with almost everything here. The last paragraph is not quite accurate though. He has worked with several "passing gurus" in the last 2 offseasons, and his work ethic has never even been remotely questionable. I am certainly not a "Tebowite" (honestly I had barely even heard of him until he was drafted by the Broncos) - but his willingness to work on whatever his coaches have asked him to is well documented. Even this season, he was asked to bulk up (probably at the expense of spending time on working on his passing) - and he did.I think the issue moving forward is that IF he gets a coach that WANTS him to focus on his passing, he will - and probably become fairly decent. The problem with that blueprint, is that at least for now, his coach wants him to focus on other things - and Tebow is only too willing to comply.

 

[BallparkFrank]

Tim Tebow's value to me is that he's taking up a roster spot on someone elses team.

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

Worth Keeping on your roster, If somehow he gets the starting job, he is a very good fantasy QB.

That said, his trade value is probably nothing.

 

[FantasyTrader]

so, IMO he has negative value because he will tempt you to keep him around with all of the hype, feel good stories, and occasional spectacular play. In reality, he's eating up a roster spot, with no possibility to ever become a legit FF starting QB. your best bet is to cut bait.

This is what I was trying to say in an earlier post.

 

[Quint]

thanks for the input. puts things more into focus.

 

[KiddLattimer]

I think he's starting in Jacksonville next season. Just a hunch, he will return to Florida like Caesar with the chariots and everything. At that point he has value because he is an unconventional scoring machine in fantasy football.

I was really surprised they didnt make a bigger push to trade for him (at least as far as the public knows). He would have been a goldmine for a struggling franchiseAs far as the question goes, i'm looking to pick him up in my dynasty league for at or near the league minimum. This year I dont expect much but with the rushing yards and TDs he puts up he's a solid backup at a minimum with upside.

 

[LawFitz]

I like him MUCH better in a start 2 QB league.

 

[Mario Kart]

He is highly undervalued. He will garner at least a first round rookie pick sooner rather than later.

The Tebow will shine and shine bright in the NFL and fantasy football.

 

[FDC]

I like him MUCH better in a start 2 QB league.

Or just a super deep league.Lets not forget this Jets team just went to 2 AFC championship games in a row recently. Is Tebow better than Sanchez? Probably for this team IMO. I don't think its hard to see Tebow as a long term NFL starter. Before Cam, and Tebow to an extent, the fantasy football world did not know how to value a QB that is also the goalline RB. So yes Tebow's FF will always be untraditional. Especially with the influx of the spread offense into the NFL, Tebow's upside is especially interesting. A case could be made that the Jets-Sanchez situation is perhaps the best situation for him fantasy wise. There aren't many current future 3rd round values that has Tebow's upside. JMHO

 

[Portis 26]

I think he has got significant dynasty value and some redraft value right now.

At the risk of making a very obvious point, running QBs are fantasy gold. They put up a lot of points. Tebow has historically put up great fantasy numbers whenever he has started because although his passing numbers have been erratic to atrocious, he's put up great rushing yards.

Sure he's on the bench right now but the guy in front of him could be yanked any minute. Sanchez probably has the lowest job security of any starting QB in the league.

Also, he actually is a serviceable backup QB even if he's not starting because he'll likely be getting a reasonable number of plays per game anyway.

Now, all of the above presumes that he's basically a running QB who can't throw. But if he ever improves his throwing motion - and he does have the work ethic to do it - watch out because he could put up stratospheric numbers.