Been thinking about trading Brees. Aside from his contract situation, will his value ever be higher? I mean he had 1000 more yards and 10 more TDs than his previous three years average. In my Dynasty league, I have Matt Ryan and Ben as my other QBs. I was offered Ryan Mathews straight up. I should be able to get the 1.2 (Luck, Griffin, or Martin) or the 1.3 and a guy like Percy Harvin or Vincent Brown.
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Time to trade Drew Brees (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter agiffey
- Start date
Buck Stop
Footballguy
Despite those great numbers, he's not really being bought at a high price right now. I think with all the young rising QBs (Stafford, Newton, and to a lesser extent Luck and RG3) dynasty owners aren't willing to fork over great value for him, especially when considering his age. I've got a few leagues where Bees owners have been shopping him to the entire league without a single offer. Heck I sold him in 1 league and at the time thought I sold too low (Got Matt Ryan, Hankerson, 2013 1st) and am now starting to think I did pretty decent based on the lack of offers and movement in other leagues.
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Dolphins Homer
Footballguy
I traded Brees for AJ Green and Jahvid Best with 4 weeks remaining last year. Looks like a pretty good deal looking back. If Best can overcome the concussions and bring the spark he has showed, it will be a genious move. I agree with trading him now if you can get the value. If you can't, don't sell low. He is more valuable to your team than letting someone you compete with steal him.
Just closed the deal. I got Ryan Mathews, Ben Tate & Mike Goodson for Brees. This was the owner of the 1.1 & 1.2. I imagine he will take Richardson & either Luck or Griffin. While I'm not big on Goodson, I do have McFadden. And Tate is excellent insurance for Foster and who knows where he will be next year. If Mathews lives up the the hype, Jackpot! Now I just need Matt Ryan to take it to the next level.
Tony Soprano
Footballguy
Well done
Donsmith753
Footballguy
Brees was traded for the 1.02 (Luck) in my 16 team dynasty. Team that traded away wasn't going to compete and is rebuilding.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Good posting. Although you are going to get violent opposition to something like this. I did with the Adrian Peterson thread last year. People get very emotional when you challenge accepted wisdom.
doowain
Footballguy
We all know the opposition you received wasn't because you challenged conventional wisdom. Get a clue.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
I actually did this in a league before this thread.
Got Hakeem Nicks, Jake Locker, Christian ponder for Brees and a late 1st.
Got Hakeem Nicks, Jake Locker, Christian ponder for Brees and a late 1st.
The bounty stuff has nothing to do with the declining market for Drew Brees IMO. I'd say it's far more likely that his age (34) and the overabundance of quality QB's in the league right now are the driving factors as to why his perceived value isn't on par with what his actual value will likely be.
Sweet Love
IBL Representative
Personally, I think the team will be a disaster (i.e 7-9 or 6-10 type year) and will be in constant disarray...Much of this has to do with the bounty-gate/Brees contract stuff, but also with the fact that while all this has been going on, Carolina and TB have quietly improved their squads.
didn't you change your position like 3 times in that thread????
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
This seems weird. If that was the cause of his plummeting value then I would say buy cheap. The bounty scandal and Brees' performance are unrelated, maybe with the sole caveat that Payton will not be there to build the offense from the ground up from Day One and day after day after that.I think the bigger issue is the brinksmanship between the Saints organization and Brees; if he doesn't sign he's sitting out and then he's going elsewhere.As a side note the Saints had two very mediocre years under Brees, 2007-2008, and both of those years Brees set records including 2008 when he was a single short missed pass/reception by Lance Moore from breaking Marino's record the first time.On a dynasty level Brees' age is definitely worth considering though and that's exactly what the Saints' front office is dealing with probably.
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Sabertooth
Footballguy
What was it then?'doowain said:
Sabertooth
Footballguy
I held firm until about the middle of the season when he still hadn't broken into the top 5, then switched. Then he got hurt and I fished a few people. The point in the beginning though was that he was overrated and wouldn't finish as a top guy, nor would he have as much dynasty value ever again as he had in August or early September. I just messed up by no doggedly sticking to my guns.'imagroid said:
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
For the love of god just stop.You said he wouldn't finish as a top RB because the Vikings were terrible and he couldn't produce in that situation. When he did, you admitted you were wrong. Then his knee exploded and you acted like that vindicated your opinion, as if you predicted he was going to pop every ligament in his knee.Any way, this really has no place in this thread so just let it go. Every time you bring that nonsense thread up you only make yourself look worse. There's a reason that every single person thinks you come off bad from that, even the people that originally agreed with you about Peterson. The whole ordeal undermines every post you make on this forum so I can't even begin to fathom why you continually try and bring attention to it.
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doowain
Footballguy
Sabertooth
Footballguy
He never at any point got into the top 5 in running back scoring. Healthy or not. And he will never again be the number 1 dynasty back. Even if I was off on the reasoning, the hypothesis holds up. Just like it does with Brees.Drew Brees is never going to have value like he had at the end of last season. He's getting older now, and I doubt he has an encore performance simply because his performance was history. Betting on a repeat is foolish. People don't generally have historic seasons twice.
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
He was RB1 after 8 weeks and was RB3 after 11 (the week before he got injured).I don't think anyone is really disagreeing on Brees, his value in some people's eyes seems to be similar to that of guys like Eli/Ryan right now, not that I'm on board.
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Shutout
Footballguy
Are you mad?
If this is the consensus value of Brees then A LOT of people have fallen into the Logan's run trap because of his age.
If the Saints suck as a franchise, then that doesn't hurt Brees. He (and players in general) often have great fantasy seasons on bad teams because they are always playing catchup.
So it has to be age people are banging on and thats silly. Brees has been arguably the best NF QB the past 2-3 years and as far as FF, he has been in rare air as far as productive. minus Rodgers and a SMALL handfull of guys and he is typically 100-150 points above every other QB in the league.
He JUST turned 33. He reasonably has at least 4 more years of top production in him. That is an enternity in FF. I really think people are selling low on him if this is accurate.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I don't disagree and I value him much higher than guys like Eli/Ryan (who I don't really see much of any value in) myself, but that seems to be his going rate given the offseason trades thread here on FBG. I'd rather have 3 years of stud production than 7 years of above average production, but that's just me.I will say that you seem to have a pretty skewed notion of what Brees has done the last few years, however. He's not typically 100-150 points above every QB in the league outside of the top tier. He did that this past year, but that's it. Prior to that, he's never even been 100 pts ahead of QB12, much less "every other QB in the league".
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Shutout
Footballguy
I think it was combo of what I thought and maybe scoring systems. the past few years, he was 60-80 better than the #12. Not as much as I thought, but I guess my general point was that he was better by a sizeable amount. I'm on the side of the fence that you described...give me the top 3-4 years. anything forecast beyond that is a crap shoot no matter what. guess I'm just in the camp of give me the known and right now Brees, to me, is about as known as it gets for QBs.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Judging by this thread, now is the time to trade for brees.
No way imo. He's a 33 year old coming off a career year, being drafted as a top 4 qb in the first round of start ups.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Hes worth a hell of a lot more than Eli or Matt Ryan.
Papa Georgio
Footballguy
I have been guilty of holding on to guys for 1 year too long. You can't get what they are worth because of their age. If it's accurate or not people don't understand that 3 years is an eternity in FF and that even a young stud isn't guaranteed to produce past that long. I am one who traded Brees simply because I think if you hold him past this season, due to his age and the great possibility he doesn't duplicate last years numbers his value will plummet.
Synesthesia
Footballguy
If you're off on the reasoning, then it doesn't matter whether the hypothesis holds up. Pool players don't allow slop. Gamblers will always make fun of you for hitting on 19, even if you get a 2. The reasoning matters more than the results in terms of repeatability and predictive power.
Donsmith753
Footballguy
That's robbery.
Shutout
Footballguy
Yeah, purely looking at age is a wasted proposition.I can remember 3 years ago people bailing on Brady because he was going on 32, had recently been injured, and was very good, but not great. Since then, of course, he has had some of his best years.Similar situation with guys like thomas Jones, Reggie wayne, Steve Smith, etc the past few years. They get to an age and people start panicking but guys like these and Marvin harrison and Tony gonzalez and a huge list of others have had some great twilight years. I think the common thread in this is that not all guys age the same and the onese that have been great tend to remain very very good longer. Look at Peyton manning. He is 35 but had he not sat out all year last year, people would be assuming he would be favre and no one would scoff if someone said "He's got 4 more good years in him, at least, maybe 5."All these situations turn on their own events.
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
Anyone else think the NFL's emphasis on protecting QBs / star players is going to extend the careers of guys like Brees, Brady, Manning? I personally think that the HOF-level guys are more likely to be effective into their late 30s as opposed to hitting a wall at 35ish. I'd be pretty content to ride a guy like Brees or Brady into the ground at this point.
That said, if you can get a much younger established star at a more valuable position (like Matthews or Nicks from earlier in the thread), you obviously pull the trigger IMO.
That said, if you can get a much younger established star at a more valuable position (like Matthews or Nicks from earlier in the thread), you obviously pull the trigger IMO.
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
Pretty sure teams have been trying to take out Brees for 6 seasons now.
mozzy84
Footballguy
Sold him for Mcfadden at the end of last season
I think one of the traps a lot of guys fall into in dynasty is constantly building for the future. At some point you probably want to win some money. Its not like the stock market where you want to buy low and sell high at all costs- a legitimate chance to win now is almost always more valuable than a speculative chance in the future. You got to be in it to win it, and elite players win fantasy leagues, even if they retire at the end of the year.'Shutout said:
Grimace59
Footballguy
Allot of people are talking about dumping Brees and building with a player for the future. Me I do want to get rid of Brees because I see him on the down side of his career, and it ended in 2 to 3 years, but I was only doing a deal if I got elite talent back. Looked at only getting Newton or Rodgers back in any deal for Brees since I have them rated higher.'Donsmith753 said:
Donsmith753
Footballguy
For clarity I was saying you robbed him.
Grimace59
Footballguy
Oh I know I did. Was just saying I was only looking to upgrade when trading Brees not trying to get younger at the QB spot. Everyday you wait his value will go down.
Shutout
Footballguy
I don't think this statement can be glossed over. In the past, QBs were getting years of cummulative hits that must count for something in adding up and taking a toll. Nowadays, you can't hardly breathe on a QB, so I agree that it might be the new norm that the QB is a position that plays very effectively until 38-39 (for those QBs that genuinely have the kind of drive and want to play that long). As a thought: what if Troy Aikman and Steve young had not been beaten around as much and had relative solid reassurance that the rules were going to protect them going forward and reduce the likelihood that they would not take additional hits that were so severe? Is it reasonable that either one of these guys may have extended their careers by 2-3 years? I think so.'Coeur de Lion said:
DropKick
Footballguy
Are you happy about that? Life of a RB can be short... Like a fruit fly...As for Brees... I wouldn't trade him for less than market value and, judging by some of this commentary, I guess that means I wouldn't trade him. I'll take a few more years of quality production and start mining for an heir apparent.
mozzy84
Footballguy
yea I am good with that, I had a hell of a time trying to trade him the last couple years (traded for Brees the year Brady went down so I've had both for years now).
Synesthesia
Footballguy
That trend is already underway. Look at the most recent HoFers. Aikman washed out due to injury at 34, but Moon was still a top-5 fantasy QB at age 39 and still a top-10 fantasy QB at 41. Steve Young was the #1 fantasy QB at age 37 before injuries forced him to retire at 38. Elway ranked 6th or better at 33, 34, 35, 36, and 37. Favre was QB3 at age 40. Warner was QB4 at age 37. Most of the recent HoF QBs (90s or later) *have* been effective into their late 30s. It seems like 37 is the new 35.
