TN WR Julio Jones - 8.6.21 - Leg Injury "nothing major" - Injury Concerns Forward? (1 Viewer)

[Joe Bryant]

Tennessee Titans WR Julio Jones (leg) is out of practice again Friday, Aug. 6, but the injury is nothing major, according to sources. 

https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/1423638054334603264?s=20

Footballguys view: We believe that it is nothing major, but it is a reminder that Jones spends a lot of time on the injury report. Last year was the first year that it greatly affected his fantasy value. His ADP down two rounds or so from previous levels, so the fear that injuries are going to sap his fantasy value going forward is baked into his price.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Question for you. How much do you worry about Jones and injury? 

 

[candian fantasy guy]

I worry about more in terms of him missing practice time with Tannehill. He and Matt Ryan played a whole bunch together before Julio started missing practice routinely. I think it will greatly affect his performance and might render him to being more of decoy out there on Sundays. A big plus for AJ and Henry. 

 

[oswizzle]

He seems to be always getting dinged up the last few years .... last year AJ was wearing a Julio jersey during warm ups.... This Duo could be lethal 

 

[BoltBacker]

Question for you. How much do you worry about Jones and injury? 

Jones missing time the first week of August? I am probably more concerned with Henry and his 800+ touches the past two seasons.

Jones missing time the first week of September? I am definitely more concerned with Jones and his familiarity/chemistry in the offense.

 

[smbkrypt24]

If I didn't just acquire Julio I would respond no big deal.

Since I acquired Julio in the past couple weeks I think it is a big deal since he is always injured.  I am concerned he remains nicked up again this year just like the previous 5.

 

[travdogg]

Not really worried at all. More hoping it pushes his ADP down into the WR3 range. 

 

[Joe Bryant]

If I didn't just acquire Julio I would respond no big deal.

Since I acquired Julio in the past couple weeks I think it is a big deal since he is always injured.  I am concerned he remains nicked up again this year just like the previous 5.

That's how it always goes, doesn't it?

 

[BoltBacker]

Since I acquired Julio in the past couple weeks I think it is a big deal since he is always injured.  I am concerned he remains nicked up again this year just like the previous 5.

If I was a Jones owner I would be elated to get his nicked up, injured production from the past five years.

Yeah, he missed 10 games over that span but when he plays.....

 

[Deranged Hermit]

Question for you. How much do you worry about Jones and injury? 

I want no part of Julio at his adp. I'm not sure I want him 2 rounds past his current adp.

I think the spirt is willing with him, but his body can't keep up anymore. 

 

[DocHolliday]

Question for you. How much do you worry about Jones and injury? 

It has to be a consideration when drafting him.  Age is not kind to NFL skill players.  

 

[rockaction]

Question for you. How much do you worry about Jones and injury? 

FBG's own Matt Waldman faded him heavily last year because he'd watched film. Said almost after every play he was getting up tremendously slow or needing to be stretched out every time on the sidelines in between plays. He also noted that Jones didn't practice. At all.

His production in 2020 was great when he played, but I'd be very worried. I inherited him on a dynasty team and dealt him for Chark and Mostert in what seems like a bunch of declining assets all around. At the time Chark was ascending so much that he was rated ahead of Julio in Rotounderworld's rankings. I went with it. Probably not a good trade.

I regret it, but he's a very late first-round return in dynasty, and I wouldn't give nearly that for him, IMO.

I suppose that's a roundabout way of saying "very concerned" and "not surprised at all" while letting everybody know how fallible my own judgment is.

 

[TripItUp]

On my not likely to draft list.  Won't be on any of my teams.  Too many risk factors.

1.  32 years old

2.  Already injured this year

3.  Missing valuable preseason reps with new team

4.  Target volume uncertain

5.  Missed a lot of time last year

 

[King of the Jungle]

Not much to say that already hasn’t been mentioned. He has been stressful to have on FF squad for awhile now, with each passing year it doesn’t seem to get easier. I will most likely be passing at ADP and not drafting unless he slides a couple rounds.

 

[rzrback77]

On my do not draft list.  Won't be on any of my teams.  Too many risk factors.

1.  32 years old

2.  Already injured this year - missed 9 games a year ago so concerning

3.  Missing valuable preseason reps with new team - concerning

4.  Target volume uncertain - Atlanta passes 20/19/18 = 626/683/615 while Tennessee 484/446/432 - expecting less targets is a given

5.  Missed a lot of time last year - and rarely practiced, so definitely concerning

6. never been a TD scorer and the Titans feature heavy rushing (24 TDs by Henry & Tannehill) and A. J. Brown had 11 receiving TDs last year

 

[TripItUp]

6. never been a TD scorer and the Titans feature heavy rushing (24 TDs by Henry & Tannehill) and A. J. Brown had 11 receiving TDs last year

 

[-jb-]

I was doing a few mock simulations on DD and he kep popping up as the recommended next pick (as a WR2). I barfed a little each time. So, yeah, I’m out. 

 

[BoltBacker]

Maybe we need to define how we feel about his value a little clearer. 

Right now he's being drafted ~pick#47 so that's the end of the fourth round. I'm using MFL because they are pay leagues and 12 team redrafts in August and also because their ADP data is pretty easy to access. I feel like some people are evaluating him from a different point than a late 4th rounder due to where he has been traditionally drafted. Some are saying they would wait two rounds lower..... so you wouldn't consider him unless it's the end of the 6th round(pick#70+)? 

I flat out don't think he deserves to be on any "do not draft list" based on what we know right now. Now if you are saying I don't want him at his current ADP so I'll let someone else draft him there, that's one thing. But if anyone is saying they aren't interested if he slid into the 10th I think they are lying or making poor choices(unless we find out something much more serious than we know right now).

It might be more interesting if we posted(or polled) what range you would draft him right now. I'd feel perfectly comfortable taking him in the 40's right now with the understanding that there is some risk but he has a proven track record of someone that should be drafted in the top 15 based on per game production(admittedly in a different situation). The only WR being taken after him that I might take because he feels so much safer is Tyler Lockett being drafted at pick#53 right now. Who are some of the folks being drafted later that you would take ahead of Jones?

Pick 40-49 I would take him unless one of my guys from the top 40 slid to me.

 

[travdogg]

Maybe we need to define how we feel about his value a little clearer. 

Right now he's being drafted ~pick#47 so that's the end of the fourth round. I'm using MFL because they are pay leagues and 12 team redrafts in August and also because their ADP data is pretty easy to access. I feel like some people are evaluating him from a different point than a late 4th rounder due to where he has been traditionally drafted. Some are saying they would wait two rounds lower..... so you wouldn't consider him unless it's the end of the 6th round(pick#70+)? 

I flat out don't think he deserves to be on any "do not draft list" based on what we know right now. Now if you are saying I don't want him at his current ADP so I'll let someone else draft him there, that's one thing. But if anyone is saying they aren't interested if he slid into the 10th I think they are lying or making poor choices(unless we find out something much more serious than we know right now).

It might be more interesting if we posted(or polled) what range you would draft him right now. I'd feel perfectly comfortable taking him in the 40's right now with the understanding that there is some risk but he has a proven track record of someone that should be drafted in the top 15 based on per game production(admittedly in a different situation). The only WR being taken after him that I might take because he feels so much safer is Tyler Lockett being drafted at pick#53 right now. Who are some of the folks being drafted later that you would take ahead of Jones?

Pick 40-49 I would take him unless one of my guys from the top 40 slid to me.

I think the entire concept of do not draft lists are is silly. "Everybody's got a price" to quote Ted Dibiase, and in fantasy drafts everybody has a point where there are draftable if they even have a chance of being useful.

I would take Adam Thielen over Julio or Lockett, but I do think Julio has a good chance to be a pretty big steal. Corey Davis was a solid WR3 last year in this offense, and he missed 2 games. Julio is a lot better WR than Davis, and I say this as someone who likes Davis. The thing with Julio is this: what happens when Julio is treated as the #2 WR by defenses? That hasn't happened since his rookie season. Its entirely on the table he ends up outproducing AJ Brown simply by having easier matchups(I have similar logic with Jefferson/Thielen) the injury risk is very baked into his price, and while I don't trust his health at all. I don't think he's lost a step, and when healthy, is still a top-5 NFL WR without question.

 

[TripItUp]

I think the entire concept of do not draft lists are is silly. 

I should rephrase...he won't end up on any of my teams because I have him ranked in the 60s and he's unlikely to last that long in any of my drafts.

 

[Joe Bryant]

I should rephrase...he won't end up on any of my teams because I have him ranked in the 60s and he's unlikely to last that long in any of my drafts.

Exactly. That's a good point to make sure is stated. Most every player that'll see the field has some value. When you say you "won't be drafting _______ " that means he'll be gone by the time you get to the draft spot you feel comfortable.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Also - excellent discussion, Folks. Thanks.

This is a perfect example of why these specific topic threads are far superior than the monster 57 page "official" player threads for discussion where there is nothing descriptive in the title to let you know what the thread is about. 

In August of 2021 Julio Jones current health and health outlook for the season is a huge topic. 

Great job. You folks rock. 

 

[GroveDiesel]

After having read Matthew Berry’s 7 Habits of a Highly Effective Drafter article (thanks @Joe Bryant for tweeting that out), Habit 3 really stuck out to me.

It is: “At a fundamental level, fantasy football is entirely about minimizing risk and giving yourself the best odds to win on a weekly basis.”

Berry argues strongly that, early in your draft, you should be targeting the players that you believe give you the greatest chance to score decent points every single week. So guys that are boom or bust or large injury risks are guys that you want to avoid.

Now, maybe Julio’s ADP already accounts for that somewhat, but looking at ADPs, I think I’d rather have Robert Woods, Chris Godwin, or Adam Thielen who all have similar ADPs. All 3 of those guys are pretty consistent week to week and are more likely to play more games than Julio as well.

 

[Joe Bryant]

After having read Matthew Berry’s 7 Habits of a Highly Effective Drafter article (thanks @Joe Bryant for tweeting that out), Habit 3 really stuck out to me.

It is: “At a fundamental level, fantasy football is entirely about minimizing risk and giving yourself the best odds to win on a weekly basis.”

Berry argues strongly that, early in your draft, you should be targeting the players that you believe give you the greatest chance to score decent points every single week. So guys that are boom or bust or large injury risks are guys that you want to avoid.

Now, maybe Julio’s ADP already accounts for that somewhat, but looking at ADPs, I think I’d rather have Robert Woods, Chris Godwin, or Adam Thielen who all have similar ADPs. All 3 of those guys are pretty consistent week to week and are more likely to play more games than Julio as well.

Excellent point. 

The more I think of it, riding that balance between risk/reward/boom/bust is almost all of fantasy football. 

 

[travdogg]

After having read Matthew Berry’s 7 Habits of a Highly Effective Drafter article (thanks @Joe Bryant for tweeting that out), Habit 3 really stuck out to me.

It is: “At a fundamental level, fantasy football is entirely about minimizing risk and giving yourself the best odds to win on a weekly basis.”

Berry argues strongly that, early in your draft, you should be targeting the players that you believe give you the greatest chance to score decent points every single week. So guys that are boom or bust or large injury risks are guys that you want to avoid.

Now, maybe Julio’s ADP already accounts for that somewhat, but looking at ADPs, I think I’d rather have Robert Woods, Chris Godwin, or Adam Thielen who all have similar ADPs. All 3 of those guys are pretty consistent week to week and are more likely to play more games than Julio as well.

I think Berry's strategy is a good way to have a perfectly mediocre team, that likely won't finish last, but has a lower ceiling. In my opinion, the key to winning is having as many difference makers as possible. Those guys who have injury risk, or are boom or bust, are typically your league winners, because they might stay healthy, or peak at the right time. They are discounted. The steady guys, you are typically paying pretty close to their ceilings. 

 

[Tanner9919]

Question for you. How much do you worry about Jones and injury? 

do not touch him , even with a 10-ft pole, he's at the age where WR production drops off significantly. 

 

[Bri]

Question for you. How much do you worry about Jones and injury? 

Extensively. I wish the Titans wouldn't play him til like week 10. 

Weren't they handed the division when Wentz got injured?

I doubt this is anything to truly worry about with Jones but...geesh it stirred up the worrying

 

[Bri]

Sidenote here- Marcus Johnson has arrived. He's Julio's (all three spots really) backup and that's probably people's followup Q here.

Check out FBGs fifth year WR articles and hopes for him draft day 

 

[Dizzy]

Question for you. How much do you worry about Jones and injury? 

Not at all... because he's cooked. Will not draft him, unless needing a WR5 or WR6 in which case, by the time I need him he'll be on the weekly injury report with a (Q) behind his name.