Biabreakable
Footballguy
I am not really seeing why people think a rookie RB will force a significant time share with Gerhart who is a complete RB, plays well on 3rd downs, pass blocking, screen game and short yardage.
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Toby Gerhart - dynasty buy? (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter EBF
- Start date
jurb26
Footballguy
Gandalf the Grey
Footballguy
I totally agree. There's a frightening kind of groupthink that constantly goes on in the Shark Pool. Regarding Gerhardt specifically it's likely due to a few factors: he's not a sexy back, the "white RB stigma", following a dynamic MJD yet on a likely weak Jax team, etc. The bottom line is the simple cost/benefit analysis (though it's also more than this, which EBF has outlined at length in the past-pedigree and past performance) which most people have already missed. There's always a real danger in here when people look to consensus opinion to make their FF decisions. I do it too at times so I'm not saying I'm above it, but I'm definitely more aware of it. I expect at least middle RB 2 numbers in my 16 team league and he cost me almost nothing a few months back to get that.
duaneok66
Footballguy
Good points. I am not on anyone's side. They (JAX brass) may think Gerhart is good. If so, then I don't see them drafting a RB in the top 3-4 rounds. They have plenty of other needs.
I am in a wait and see mode.
Gandalf the Grey
Footballguy
Who cares what the majority opinion says? I'm not trying to be antagonistic. Nor does he need to be a "super talent". There's a lot of space between "super talent" and "compiler", particularly when you factor in his cost (2 months ago, not necessarily now). I think the majority opinion has missed the boat on Gerhardt personally.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
EX-MINNESOTA VIKINGS NEWS: TOBY GERHART LIKELY TO BE FEATURE BACK WITH JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
APRIL 27, 2014,by ARIF HASAN
http://vikingsterritory.com/
Toby Gerhart had been somewhat of a favorite among the Minnesota Vikings fanbase before seeking his fortunes in free agency. The general consensus seems to have been that he deserved his chance to start and prove he has what it takes to be a bell-cow back.
Speaking to the Florida Times-Union, Gerhart said that he was “ready for his shot.”
“I think I’m in a unique situation. Even though it’s my fifth year in the league, I can come in and be a dominant guy,” he said to Gene Frenette of the Florida newspaper.
A month earlier, head coach Gus Bradley indicated that Toby Gerhart could be due for about 18 carries a game (that’s 288 carries for the year), and Frenette projects somewhere between 240-300 carries for the year (giving himself a little bit of leeway) despite the initial impression from Jaguars fans that Gerhart would be the lead back in a running-back-by-committee instead of the primary back supplemented with the likes of Jordan Todman and Denard Robinson. This matches a report from the same newspaper in early March, when he signed, that he would get 15-20 carries a game.
Toby Gerhart has had 276 carries in his career (functionally one season) for 1305 yards. Unlike most backup running backs, the lion’s share of those carries actually came from lead back duty instead of as a backup, so his 4.7 yards per carry average may be more indicative than most, especially as that is a decent (not great) sample to draw from.
His Pro Football Focus grade, when normalized to one season of 800 snaps, is slightly above average for a starting running back (+0.9) over the course of his career, and was great last year (+3.0 on 199 snaps). He also has had a career yards per attempt after contact of 2.8, higher than the league average of 2.6 and his predecessor Maurice Jones-Drew. He has forced 50 missed tackles on those 276 carries, which is one of the best in the NFL in that time (0.181 missed tackles per attempt beats Peterson’s extremely high .169), 10th overall among those with at least 250 attempts.
The only year that Gerhart had significant carries (2011, after Peterson went down with an ACL injury), he had 109 carries for 4.9 yards a carry and an 800-snap adjusted PFF grade of 14.0, which would have placed him third overall among RBs (he had a 7.0 grade for the year, actually ranking 16th). If the argument that he needs to have more carries a game to build up steam holds any merit, it bodes extremely well for him.
Gerhart gained weight while with the Vikings (he told me as a directive from the coaching staff), who probably wanted to convert him into a power back willing to gain short yardage in order to rest Adrian Peterson in 3rd-and-short situations. He was listed at 231 pounds on the Vikings roster in 2013, but that hasn’t changed since his initial listing in 2010 (it was also his 2010 combine weight), which means that it is probably inaccurate.
Toby was a fantastic college running back, and the fifth one drafted that year (behind the remarkable Jahvid Best) and finished 2nd in the closest Heisman race to date behind Mark Ingram of Alabama. He led the FBS that year in total rushing yards, total attempts, total touchdowns, and ranked fifth in yards per attempt among those with at least 250 carries (behind Ryan Mathews, Donald Buckam, Mark Ingram and Ryan Williams). He was a critical part of Jim Harbaugh’s success at Stanford and was a high-level back ready for the draft.
He ranked third in Matt Waldman’s pre-draft Rookie Scouting Portfolio and had this to say of him:
Gerhart is a powerful back with the speed, explosiveness, and vision to be a productive starter. Gerhart is more Michael Turner than Brandon Jacobs in terms of his skill sets, which makes him a multi-dimensional threat. He might be the best pass blocking back in this draft class, which will earn him early chances. Gerhart is a smart, gritty, do-what-it takes player that will at least be a major component in an RBBC.
He also called Gerhart the best back in the “power,” “balance,” and “blocking” categories.
SB Nation said this about him:
Despite spending four years at Stanford, Gerhart is considered an underclassman in draft standards because of a medical redshirt he used in 2007 as a result of a torn ACL in his left knee. Considering his upright running style and his disadvantage off the bat when it comes to NFL athleticism, teams will approach the All American’s draft status with caution. There is not doubt he has the ability to break tackles and gain yards after contact, two vital components to the running back position in the NFL, but his already damaged knee and lack of top tier athleticism will downgrade his stock. He will best be used in a system that allows him to carry the ball in certain situations rather then being depended upon to carry the ball every down. His intangibles are top notch and he is both a dedicated and accomplished two sport athlete that will enter the league as a guy that every coach wants on the field on way or another. He will get a shot as a tailback, but has the body and physicality to make the move to fullback in a pinch. If he works out well, Gerhart could be a top 45 selection.
The NFL.com draft profile is very similar:
Gerhart is a big, powerful ball carrier that has just enough speed to be a threat. He runs with a good pad level and consistently breaks through first contact and gets a lot of his yards after initial contact. He seems to get stronger as the game wears on and defenses visibly grow weary of trying to take him on in the latter parts of the game. He knows how to follow his blockers and is patient as he waits for the hole to open up. He is an effective receiver out of the backfield and, while he is not apt to be used as a downfield threat, he can move the chains in the short to intermediate passing game.
I do think he’ll get back to a higher level of speed (which I think was underrated coming out) if he drops weight to get back to 231 and be a highly productive back, even if he doesn’t have the spectacular highlights that Adrian Peterson has.
Also, I get it: it’s a slow period for news. So instead, here’s some stuff about a guy we all liked.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
What I wanted to add to Arif's nice article here is that I have been thinking about how the Vikings used Gerhart primarily as a power running back. Which made me wonder a bit how he would fit into the Jaguars zone blocking system? But after reading back about Gerhart he came from a ZBS in Stanford and excelled in it. So just because the Vikings did not use him in that type of a system does not really mean he isn't good at it.
Here is a scouting report by David Wyatt on Gerhart-
Scouting The Draft: Toby Gerhart, RB, Stanford
By David_Wyatt @D_wyatt13 on Mar 8 2010
http://www.ganggreennation.com/2010/3/8/1362600/scouting-the-draft-toby-gerhart-rb
I know a lot of people have wanted me to get to Gerhart a little sooner, but never really imagined we would contemplate taking him, but with Jones gone, and Leon's status still a little uncertain, it's becoming a real possibility that we will look his way when it comes to the draft in April.
Gerhart has done nothing but produce since he was a kid, he had a record career at Norco high school in California, despite this most scout agencies only ranked him as a 3 star prospect, although during the recruitment process he did carry the name 'Touchdown Toby'. Names Mr Football for the state of California in 2005 he decided on Stanford thanks to the combination of academics and excellence in a two sport program (he is also a baseball player)
Gerhart has also heard what is being said about him, and feels that he is not getting the recognition that he deserves, not listed as a top 5 back in either Tod McShay's or Mel Kipers running back class, and not even listed as their value picks:
"They say I don't have top-end speed or the burst," Gerhart added. "They say I can't play running back at the next level. I don't think I'm getting the respect I deserve."
Little burst, not much speed, it's exactly what they both said about Greene last year, he has deceptive speed for sure, and now that he has been working out on a no carb diet, he has shed 10lb's since Stanford's last game.
He had to run the 40 in under 4.6 if he wanted to silence the critics, and prove that he does have what it takes to be a running back and not a fullback at the next level...he ran it in 4.53. Just as a comparison, Chris 'Beanie' Wells ran it in a 4.59.
40 Yard Time: 4.53
Bench Press: 22
Vertical: 38 inch
3 Cone Drill: 6.94
Broad Jump: 9"10
Career Stats
2006- 106 attempts, 375 yards, 3.5 average, 38 long, 0 TD. 15 receptions, 124 yards, 8.3 average, 16 long
2007- 12 attempts, 140 yards, 11.7 average, 48 long, 1 TD. (suffered a knee injury)
2008- 210 attempts, 1,136 yards, 5.4 average, 46 long, 15 TD's. 13 receptions, 114 yards, 8.8 average, 21 long
2009- 343 attempts, 1,871 yards, 5.5 average, 61 long, 28 TD's. 11 receptions, 157 yards, 14.3 average, 33 long
His achievements will have to go on the next page, as there are too many to list on the front:
Awards and honors
The guy knows how to get into the end zone, 28 total touchdowns in 2009 was just quite frankly amazing. He has a powerful lower body that can take contact and keep on churning. He has quicker feet than most give him credit for, and he in intelligent with his runs. Doesn't force anything when it isn't there, waits for the hole to open up and then bursts through it. Very good inside runner. Very rarely brought down by first contract, and will often get 3-4 extra yards after contact. Has more speed than given credit for and can get to the edge and make it difficult for the defense. Would work well in a zone blocking scheme that allows him to use his intelligence to be patient in his runs. Above average pass protector, has a big frame and loves contact, will take on anyone, and usually does a stand up job of keeping his QB on his feet. Can receive the ball out of the backfield, soft hands and secures the ball before attempting to turn up field. Two sports and academics at Stanford, you know his work ethic is among the elite, and seems like he would give 100% to improving.Can be used on certain route passes, and has a good stiff arm to swat away weak arm tackles.
What does Toby Gerhart Need To Work On?
Speed is not top edge, but as far as I'm concerned it doesn't need to be. Won't make too many players miss in the open field, and doesn't have the top end gear to run away from defensive backs. Had 5 fumbles in his senior season, and although he protects the ball on initial contact, he needs to do a better job securing it while fighting for extra yards.
Final Word
Gerhart is a great back, who is not getting half the recognition that his play warrants. He has deceptive speed, he is a bruiser, and he will give you 100% effort on every single snap. Good insider runner, I think the combination of Gerhart and Greene could do some serious damage for us. Only problem there is with his draft stock, do we need to spend our only 2nd round selection on a running back? If Leon does leave and we pick up another selection, I would like to add Gerhart and then pick up a real 3rd down change of pace back up later in the draft, if at all. His hard work will make him succeed in the NFL, he won't allow himself to fail.
APRIL 27, 2014,by ARIF HASAN
http://vikingsterritory.com/
Toby Gerhart had been somewhat of a favorite among the Minnesota Vikings fanbase before seeking his fortunes in free agency. The general consensus seems to have been that he deserved his chance to start and prove he has what it takes to be a bell-cow back.
Speaking to the Florida Times-Union, Gerhart said that he was “ready for his shot.”
“I think I’m in a unique situation. Even though it’s my fifth year in the league, I can come in and be a dominant guy,” he said to Gene Frenette of the Florida newspaper.
A month earlier, head coach Gus Bradley indicated that Toby Gerhart could be due for about 18 carries a game (that’s 288 carries for the year), and Frenette projects somewhere between 240-300 carries for the year (giving himself a little bit of leeway) despite the initial impression from Jaguars fans that Gerhart would be the lead back in a running-back-by-committee instead of the primary back supplemented with the likes of Jordan Todman and Denard Robinson. This matches a report from the same newspaper in early March, when he signed, that he would get 15-20 carries a game.
Toby Gerhart has had 276 carries in his career (functionally one season) for 1305 yards. Unlike most backup running backs, the lion’s share of those carries actually came from lead back duty instead of as a backup, so his 4.7 yards per carry average may be more indicative than most, especially as that is a decent (not great) sample to draw from.
His Pro Football Focus grade, when normalized to one season of 800 snaps, is slightly above average for a starting running back (+0.9) over the course of his career, and was great last year (+3.0 on 199 snaps). He also has had a career yards per attempt after contact of 2.8, higher than the league average of 2.6 and his predecessor Maurice Jones-Drew. He has forced 50 missed tackles on those 276 carries, which is one of the best in the NFL in that time (0.181 missed tackles per attempt beats Peterson’s extremely high .169), 10th overall among those with at least 250 attempts.
The only year that Gerhart had significant carries (2011, after Peterson went down with an ACL injury), he had 109 carries for 4.9 yards a carry and an 800-snap adjusted PFF grade of 14.0, which would have placed him third overall among RBs (he had a 7.0 grade for the year, actually ranking 16th). If the argument that he needs to have more carries a game to build up steam holds any merit, it bodes extremely well for him.
Gerhart gained weight while with the Vikings (he told me as a directive from the coaching staff), who probably wanted to convert him into a power back willing to gain short yardage in order to rest Adrian Peterson in 3rd-and-short situations. He was listed at 231 pounds on the Vikings roster in 2013, but that hasn’t changed since his initial listing in 2010 (it was also his 2010 combine weight), which means that it is probably inaccurate.
Toby was a fantastic college running back, and the fifth one drafted that year (behind the remarkable Jahvid Best) and finished 2nd in the closest Heisman race to date behind Mark Ingram of Alabama. He led the FBS that year in total rushing yards, total attempts, total touchdowns, and ranked fifth in yards per attempt among those with at least 250 carries (behind Ryan Mathews, Donald Buckam, Mark Ingram and Ryan Williams). He was a critical part of Jim Harbaugh’s success at Stanford and was a high-level back ready for the draft.
He ranked third in Matt Waldman’s pre-draft Rookie Scouting Portfolio and had this to say of him:
Gerhart is a powerful back with the speed, explosiveness, and vision to be a productive starter. Gerhart is more Michael Turner than Brandon Jacobs in terms of his skill sets, which makes him a multi-dimensional threat. He might be the best pass blocking back in this draft class, which will earn him early chances. Gerhart is a smart, gritty, do-what-it takes player that will at least be a major component in an RBBC.
He also called Gerhart the best back in the “power,” “balance,” and “blocking” categories.
SB Nation said this about him:
Despite spending four years at Stanford, Gerhart is considered an underclassman in draft standards because of a medical redshirt he used in 2007 as a result of a torn ACL in his left knee. Considering his upright running style and his disadvantage off the bat when it comes to NFL athleticism, teams will approach the All American’s draft status with caution. There is not doubt he has the ability to break tackles and gain yards after contact, two vital components to the running back position in the NFL, but his already damaged knee and lack of top tier athleticism will downgrade his stock. He will best be used in a system that allows him to carry the ball in certain situations rather then being depended upon to carry the ball every down. His intangibles are top notch and he is both a dedicated and accomplished two sport athlete that will enter the league as a guy that every coach wants on the field on way or another. He will get a shot as a tailback, but has the body and physicality to make the move to fullback in a pinch. If he works out well, Gerhart could be a top 45 selection.
The NFL.com draft profile is very similar:
Gerhart is a big, powerful ball carrier that has just enough speed to be a threat. He runs with a good pad level and consistently breaks through first contact and gets a lot of his yards after initial contact. He seems to get stronger as the game wears on and defenses visibly grow weary of trying to take him on in the latter parts of the game. He knows how to follow his blockers and is patient as he waits for the hole to open up. He is an effective receiver out of the backfield and, while he is not apt to be used as a downfield threat, he can move the chains in the short to intermediate passing game.
I do think he’ll get back to a higher level of speed (which I think was underrated coming out) if he drops weight to get back to 231 and be a highly productive back, even if he doesn’t have the spectacular highlights that Adrian Peterson has.
Also, I get it: it’s a slow period for news. So instead, here’s some stuff about a guy we all liked.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
What I wanted to add to Arif's nice article here is that I have been thinking about how the Vikings used Gerhart primarily as a power running back. Which made me wonder a bit how he would fit into the Jaguars zone blocking system? But after reading back about Gerhart he came from a ZBS in Stanford and excelled in it. So just because the Vikings did not use him in that type of a system does not really mean he isn't good at it.
Here is a scouting report by David Wyatt on Gerhart-
Scouting The Draft: Toby Gerhart, RB, Stanford
By David_Wyatt @D_wyatt13 on Mar 8 2010
http://www.ganggreennation.com/2010/3/8/1362600/scouting-the-draft-toby-gerhart-rb
I know a lot of people have wanted me to get to Gerhart a little sooner, but never really imagined we would contemplate taking him, but with Jones gone, and Leon's status still a little uncertain, it's becoming a real possibility that we will look his way when it comes to the draft in April.
Gerhart has done nothing but produce since he was a kid, he had a record career at Norco high school in California, despite this most scout agencies only ranked him as a 3 star prospect, although during the recruitment process he did carry the name 'Touchdown Toby'. Names Mr Football for the state of California in 2005 he decided on Stanford thanks to the combination of academics and excellence in a two sport program (he is also a baseball player)
Gerhart has also heard what is being said about him, and feels that he is not getting the recognition that he deserves, not listed as a top 5 back in either Tod McShay's or Mel Kipers running back class, and not even listed as their value picks:
"They say I don't have top-end speed or the burst," Gerhart added. "They say I can't play running back at the next level. I don't think I'm getting the respect I deserve."
Little burst, not much speed, it's exactly what they both said about Greene last year, he has deceptive speed for sure, and now that he has been working out on a no carb diet, he has shed 10lb's since Stanford's last game.
He had to run the 40 in under 4.6 if he wanted to silence the critics, and prove that he does have what it takes to be a running back and not a fullback at the next level...he ran it in 4.53. Just as a comparison, Chris 'Beanie' Wells ran it in a 4.59.
40 Yard Time: 4.53
Bench Press: 22
Vertical: 38 inch
3 Cone Drill: 6.94
Broad Jump: 9"10
Career Stats
2006- 106 attempts, 375 yards, 3.5 average, 38 long, 0 TD. 15 receptions, 124 yards, 8.3 average, 16 long
2007- 12 attempts, 140 yards, 11.7 average, 48 long, 1 TD. (suffered a knee injury)
2008- 210 attempts, 1,136 yards, 5.4 average, 46 long, 15 TD's. 13 receptions, 114 yards, 8.8 average, 21 long
2009- 343 attempts, 1,871 yards, 5.5 average, 61 long, 28 TD's. 11 receptions, 157 yards, 14.3 average, 33 long
His achievements will have to go on the next page, as there are too many to list on the front:
Awards and honors
- 2009 Archie Griffin Award
- 2009 Doak Walker Award
- 2009 Jim Brown Trophy
- 2009 Consensus First-team All-American (Associated Press,American Football Coaches Association (AFCA), Walter Camp Football Foundation, Football Writers Association of America,Sporting News)
- 2009 National Offensive Player of the Year (CBSSports.com)
- 2009 Pac-10 Offensive Player of the Year
- 2009 First-team All-Pac-10
- 2009 First-team Pac-10 All-Academic Team
- 2009 Elite National Performer, College Football Performance Awards
- Pac-10 Offensive Player of the Week, four times (Oct. 11, 2008; Nov. 7, 2009; Nov. 14, 2009; Nov. 28, 2009)
- 2008 Second-team All-Pac-10
- 2008 Second-team Pac-10 All-Academic Team
- 2005 California Mr. Football, Cal-Hi Sports
- 2005 Gatorade California Player of the Year
- 2005 Glenn Davis Award
- Most rushing touchdowns in a season (28) in 2009
- Most total touchdowns in a season (28) in 2009
- Most points scored in a season (172) in 2009
- Most career touchdowns (44)
- Most career rushing touchdowns (44)
- Most career 100 yard rushing games (20)
- Most career 200 yard rushing games (3) (tied)
- Most rushing yards in a season (1,871)
- Most rushing touchdowns in a season (28)
- Most total touchdowns in a season (28)
- Most points scored in a season (172)
- Most yards from scrimmage in a season (2,028)
- Most 100 yard rushing games in a season (11)
- Most 200 yard rushing games in a season (3)
- Most consecutive 100 yard rushing games (7)
- Most rushing yards in a game (223)
- Most rushing touchdowns in a game (4) (twice) (tied)
The guy knows how to get into the end zone, 28 total touchdowns in 2009 was just quite frankly amazing. He has a powerful lower body that can take contact and keep on churning. He has quicker feet than most give him credit for, and he in intelligent with his runs. Doesn't force anything when it isn't there, waits for the hole to open up and then bursts through it. Very good inside runner. Very rarely brought down by first contract, and will often get 3-4 extra yards after contact. Has more speed than given credit for and can get to the edge and make it difficult for the defense. Would work well in a zone blocking scheme that allows him to use his intelligence to be patient in his runs. Above average pass protector, has a big frame and loves contact, will take on anyone, and usually does a stand up job of keeping his QB on his feet. Can receive the ball out of the backfield, soft hands and secures the ball before attempting to turn up field. Two sports and academics at Stanford, you know his work ethic is among the elite, and seems like he would give 100% to improving.Can be used on certain route passes, and has a good stiff arm to swat away weak arm tackles.
What does Toby Gerhart Need To Work On?
Speed is not top edge, but as far as I'm concerned it doesn't need to be. Won't make too many players miss in the open field, and doesn't have the top end gear to run away from defensive backs. Had 5 fumbles in his senior season, and although he protects the ball on initial contact, he needs to do a better job securing it while fighting for extra yards.
Final Word
Gerhart is a great back, who is not getting half the recognition that his play warrants. He has deceptive speed, he is a bruiser, and he will give you 100% effort on every single snap. Good insider runner, I think the combination of Gerhart and Greene could do some serious damage for us. Only problem there is with his draft stock, do we need to spend our only 2nd round selection on a running back? If Leon does leave and we pick up another selection, I would like to add Gerhart and then pick up a real 3rd down change of pace back up later in the draft, if at all. His hard work will make him succeed in the NFL, he won't allow himself to fail.
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EBF
Footballguy
Yeah, pretty much this. A lot of people underestimated his talent level before free agency. A lot of people are underestimating his talent level after. If they were wrong about his prospects then, I'm not sure why their opinion on this topic is supposed to carry any weight now. This guy was rated as the 68th dynasty RB on DLF just a few weeks before free agency. He ended up signing the most lucrative deal of any FA RB besides Chris Johnson.
The majority got this one wrong. So who cares what they think now? He has all of the ingredients to be a productive FF back for the next year or two.
Gandalf the Grey
Footballguy
That's fine but for FF purposes it's then too late. I think it's fairly accurate to say that the majority opinion DID get it wrong (majority opinion in here at least) because the majority opinion was that he wasn't even going to be signed as more than a b/u or clear cut RBBC player-yet it appears from what we can glean at this point that he was signed to be a 3 down starter. Sure, there is a definite possibility that Jax drafts a back, that they draft a back that steals touches, but it seems unlikely to me that he's going to end up as just a committee back.
You can't wait to get guys like this, you have to be proactive. The time to grab him was before he signed. Sure there was a risk involved, but the cost was worth it.
EBF
Footballguy
Based on the only available information, yes.
There is no concrete black and white milestone that marks the point where you can judge a player. So when you talk about being "right" or "wrong" about a player, it can be tricky to determine when and where exactly you can make that call. If you had said Steve Slaton was an elite stud when he was still at West Virginia, you were "wrong" when he fell to the 3rd round of the 2008 draft. You were "right" after his awesome rookie season. And you were "wrong" after the dust settled on his career. Depending on when you made the judgment, the correct answer might have looked different. It's only now with the benefit of looking over his entire career that we can reach a fairly controversy-free conclusion. Back when he was still playing, there would've been a lot more debate and uncertainty.
As far as Gerhart is concerned, there have already been a few major milestones and there will be more in the future. Ignoring the distant past and looking only at the recent past and near future, these are some the obvious milestones that could serve as logical judgment points:
- Free Agency
- 2014 Season
- 2015 Season
- 2016 Season
Obviously we don't know how his 2014-2016 are going to go yet. So in that sense, anyone who said he's a scrub still hasn't been "proven" wrong because he hasn't played any games yet. On the other hand, free agency has already come and gone. Prior to free agency, there was very little excitement about the prospect of Gerhart as a dynasty asset or NFL RB. You can see that in the first couple pages in this thread. Not many were receptive to the idea that an NFL team could sign him as a starter. The fact that he was rated pathetically low as RB68 in the DLF dynasty rankings is another concrete data point suggesting that nobody took him seriously.
I did a Google search for "top free agent running backs 2014." Here are the top results:
Rotoworld - http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/45947/309/2014-nfl-free-agents (Gerhart ranked 13th)
NFL.com - http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap2000000330467/article/free-agency-primer-top-10-running-backs (Gerhart ranked 9th)
SB Nation - http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2014/1/14/5308048/nfl-free-agency-2014-running-backs-knowshon-moreno (Gerhart omitted from top 7)
PFT - https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2014/02/18/ranking-the-2014-free-agents-running-backs/ (Gerhart ranked 9th)
NFL Rush - http://www.nflrush.com/story/top-10-free-agent-rbs (Gerhart ranked 10th)
I didn't cherry pick these results to suit my argument. As far as I can tell, none of the mainstream media outlets were that keen on Gerhart. He ended up signing earlier, into a better situation, and for more money than several of the guys almost unanimously ranked ahead of him such as Moreno, MJD, McFadden, Tate, and Blount. In other words, the NFL's free market valued Gerhart above all of those players. So based on this milestone, it's absolutely fair to say that the consensus opinion of Gerhart was wrong. Just like how if Kelvin Benjamin is the first WR drafted in a couple weeks, it will be a concrete data point proving that people underestimated his prospects, regardless of whether or not he ultimately succeeds or fails.
Now obviously we don't know for sure how Gerhart will perform in the upcoming season and in future seasons. So anyone who says he's going to be great or awful can hide behind the shield of uncertainty until those mysteries turn into concrete results. Since we can't make any assessment of those future judgment points one way or another, they have no place in the discussion at the moment. I can say he will succeed. Someone else can say he'll fail. Neither argument has any objective value.
The only objective data point that we have to go on from the end of last season up until now is the free agency, and based on that it's not premature to say that the prevailing viewpoint got it wrong. A revisionist free agency top 10 would have him as a consensus top 2-3 RB based on the value of his contract. Likewise, the DLF staff rankings have already swung back in a more optimistic direction. He now sits at RB32 just a few weeks after being pinned with a RB68 valuation.
What you realize participating in this hobby (and in life) for a few years is that a lot of people have a lot of troubling admitting when they get things wrong. So if they don't like a guy, they will bend over backwards to read every new data point in such a way that confirms their initial opinion. So you get something like...Gerhart sucks. He won't be coveted in free agency. Oh, someone gave him a big contract. They overpaid and made a mistake. He will not produce. Oh, he had 1500 total yards in his first season with Jacksonville. It was a fluke. They will draft a legitimate starter in 2015. Oh, he rushed for 1500 yards. It is all the system. Any back could have that success in his shoes. Etc. Etc. Etc.
Anyone who knows my posts here well will say that I'm guilty of that exact thing with players like Jonathan Stewart and Trent Richardson. The thing is, the deeper you get into someone's career, the harder it becomes to justify an opinion that flies in the face of all the objective data. Hence why even I have dropped Richardson and Stewart over the last couple years. Likewise, Gerhart signing for reasonably big money into a starting role is just one data point. As of right now, it's still easy to play the "He isn't that good and he won't produce" card. If he comes out and puts up top 15-20 FF numbers on solid efficiency stats, it's going to be a lot harder to cling to that opinion. If he puts together 2-3 good years, that opinion will start to look totally ridiculous.
Since all we have to go on right now (besides his Stanford career, NFL draft slot, and Vikings stats) is the free agency milestone, in this early portion of the race it looks like the "Gerhart is a dog with no value" folks are wrong. Maybe the Jags will draft Tre Mason, Toby will get 100 carries next season, and be relegated to a backup role in 2015. We don't really know yet. However, since the "Gerhart is a dog" crowd has already been wrong based on the first major objective data point, they certainly have less credibility on the topic at the moment than anyone who said he might have value. A lot of people said he had no value. The fact that Jacksonville signed him early for solid money goes against that. So why now am I supposed to care what those same people think about his redraft/dynasty outlook? They don't appear to have had an accurate take on him in the first place, thus their opinion on the matter has dubious merit.
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az_prof
Footballguy
Unless Jax drafts a back in the first or second round, I don't see how a third or fourth round back is that much of a threat to him. A third or four round back says "we like our starter but we are want more depth." It says more about his backups than it does about him. You don't draft a RB in the third or fourth round because you don't trust your starter.
OrangeJulius
Footballguy
He signed a contract worth 3 years/10.5 million.
Not a lot of investment there. Don't count your chickens...
Not a lot of investment there. Don't count your chickens...
duaneok66
Footballguy
again, it's not about him or someone else - it's about a guy being part of a committee.
duaneok66
Footballguy
nice detailed, thoughtful post (as usual). I don't know why it always has to be about someone being "right" or "wrong". Its two weeks before the draft. The latest data shows that Gerhart "might" get starter work. HIs contract was decent (on the bell curve for RBs), but it wasn't that big of a deal. That data suggests "starter" but we will get more data in 12 days. In September, after training camp, the dust will settle. My whole point is that it is too premature to label him a starter.
People are talking about being proactive and getting Gerhart on the cheap (supposedly). The reverse could be true as well - unloading him while he has value - he may not have much next month.
We just don't know.
You can't forget about the weak market for RBs though. A thread here about them being paid like punters puts it into perspective.
It's an interesting point to make that they could draft a RB and their could be competition in the backfield. I don't see it happening but instead see a team with many glaring holes that need more attention. I would be loving how this thread could bring down his value if I didn't already have him in dynasty leagues.
This draft is supposedly poor in RB quality. This has happened in the past and there's been next to no excellent RBs or they've been "dead wrong" and later rounds proved to have gems.
The Jags could draft a guy that played one position in college and then ask him to fill another in the pros-been done before.
There is all sorts of unpredictability at play here.
The way I see it, the Jags have always had a strong RB and since their sled-dog got older, they went out and signed one of the top free agents available. I see it as continued commitment to having a quality RB.
jurb26
Footballguy
Again I'll ask the group where all of these holes are for Jack?
Jack has 11 picks in this draft, 7 in the top 150. To think its outlandish that 1 of those picks are used on a RB is just foolish IMO. Jordan Todman is their current back up and the next best player in the backfield is a converted QB.
Jack has 11 picks in this draft, 7 in the top 150. To think its outlandish that 1 of those picks are used on a RB is just foolish IMO. Jordan Todman is their current back up and the next best player in the backfield is a converted QB.
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OrangeJulius
Footballguy
The draft is loaded with RBs that I think are very talented.
If they draft Bishop Sankey/Jeremy Hill/Tre Mason in the 3rd round Gerhart will "assume the position" of backup shortly after the first rookie mini-camp. If they draft one of Crowell/West/Seastrunk/Carey/Sims/Freeman/Williams/Storm/Josey/Neal I also this he will be splitting at a minimum.
I just listed 13 backs that I think could throw a wrench into Gerhart being a RB2. I would trade him now personally...
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jurb26
Footballguy
I don't buy the weak class of RBs, either. I don't think there are any studs in this group, but there are lots of good RBs. Anyone of;This group could put a real hurt on Gerhart IMO
This group would be particularly troubling;
Snakey
Hyde
Mason
Freeman
Hill
Williams
This group could be a problem as well;
Sims
Crowell
Seastrunk
Carey
West
Sleepers that could make an impact;
Neal
Bibs
McKinnon
Brice
Josey
That's 16 RBs that could potentially be an issue. Now, I'm sure the Gerhart backer don't agree with all of these names but that's not really the point. The point is that there are plenty of RBs who could come in and contribute, not be a starter but part of a committee, to derail a lot of Gerharts value.
Mr. Brownstone
Footballguy
Current needs: QB, C, ROG, DE, OLB, FS, CB, WR, and maybe RT (depending on the organization's view of Austin Pasztor).
And they have little in the way of depth across the roster.
I don't know if they'll take a RB, but I'd be okay with it.
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buck naked
Footballguy
And QB for sure. Whoever said Henne was ok for now - c'mon. He is a placeholder.
We have no idea how long Blackmon will be suspended, but if it includes this year, this team needs a WR also.
One good point made was that Jax has 11 picks. With that many, it is likely they take 1 RB somewhere.
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Mr. Brownstone
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I think people forget that Gerhardt was a second round pick (and the Vikings traded up to get him in round 2). We know you think this draft is so special at RB Bretown, you've made that very clear, but why is a (generic) third round pick a threat to a (generic) second round pick that just got paid fairly well in free agency (lets not put names to the prospects for the sake of argument)?
I don't think Gehardt is bullet-proof to any competition, but I think at the same time people are holding the fact that he's been a career backup to date (behind a future Hall of Famer) against him for some reason. If the Jaguars drafted a RB from this class in round 2 (under the assumption they hadn't signed anyone) everyone would assume that guy is locked in as the starter. Why doesn't Gerhardt get the benefit of that assumption? Even better he's a second round pick that has shown the ability to run at the NFL level already.
jurb26
Footballguy
Beatles was signed to play RG and Clemons/Bryant were singed at DE. I'm not sure I'm seeing those as priority holes to fill. Sure they could be upgraded, but then again you could say that about nearly every team in the NFL. Unless a Clowney type player is available to them I don't think they are going to be able to upgrade those spots in the draft. Personally, I'd rank their needs as such;
QB, far and away the biggest.
C, swing and miss on Mack.
OLB, getting a better pass rush from this position is a must.
RB, no depth behind Gerhart who is largely unproven.
Seems most sites agree that RB is a need.
http://walterfootball.com/offseason2014jax.php
http://www.nfl.com/draft/2014/tracker?icampaign=nfl_drafttracker_nav-tracker#dt-tabs:dt-by-team/dt-by-team-input:jac
With 11 picks, it would make sense to take a RB (and they almost have to unless they move those picks...QB, RB, WR, TE, OL, DL, LB, CB, SS (they are still left with two duplicates)), but don't make the mistake in forgetting that Robinson was the new regime's pick last year, and they brought in Gerhart this season on a decent-sized contract. Every team is light somewhere, and I would venture a guess that Jax feels for 2014 that they have addressed it enough. Time will tell, and certainly the draft will dictate, but it would not surprise me in the least to see them hold pat for a year at the RB position.
EBF
Footballguy
That's your opinion and it's not necessarily an accurate one.
I don't see Gerhart as being any more vulnerable than guys like Ball/Lacy/Stacy and you don't hear the same paranoia about them.
Even if I bought the idea that there are 12-15 backs in this draft who could derail Gerhart's value (I don't), that would still put the odds below 50% if you assume that every team in the NFL is equally likely to draft a RB. A more realistic guess is that there might be 4-6 backs in this draft of comparable talent. Based on random probability, that might give Jacksonville a 12-18% chance of drafting scary competition. And that's assuming that they don't flub it and get an Isaiah Pead or Ronnie Hillman. You'd have to be very paranoid about his talent level and/or very high on this RB class to believe he's likely to take a big hit.
Let's look at his history:
- California all-time high school rushing yards leader.
- College superstar with 1871 yards rushing as a junior.
- 2nd round pick (51st overall) in a better RB class than this year's.
- 4.7 career NFL YPC including an exceptional long run %.
- Top 15 FF ppg stats with Peterson out in 2011.
- Given the most guaranteed money of any free agent RB besides Chris Johnson.
- Team has already come out and indicated that they believe he can be a 15-20 touch per game back.
And we are supposed to believe that one of the worst RB classes in recent years represents a massive threat to him? Kind of funny to think that a guy who was already drafted higher than maybe any RB will go this year and has already shown that he can be serviceable or even good when called upon in the NFL is supposed to be vulnerable to lower-rated prospects who haven't proven anything in the NFL.
Seems like more of a stretch to believe that than to believe that he's a fairly talented guy perfectly capable of carrying the mail here for a year or two.
jurb26
Footballguy
I don't think Ball or Stacy are particularly safe, either. This thread isn't about them though. It's largely about hyping Gerhart. You keep saying this RB class isn't very good as if it's a fact. It's your opinion and not necessarily an accurate one. I'd say this class is much better than you are letting on. Are any of these guys a major improvement over Gerhart? I don't know. I'm not saying they are. I'm simply saying there are a number of guys who could pose a real threat to his touches. How many guys like that there are is up for everyone to determine themselves. You say 4-6 guys is a more "realistic" number. I don't agree but it's irrelevant. None of those guys projects to be drafted in round 1 and just about all of them have grades between 2-4. So, if Jack uses a 2-4 pick on a RB it seems we have an issue. I don't know that they will. I'm simply talking about IF. Jack has a need at RB even if it is simply a depth move.
I don't have any qualms about Gerhart carrying the load if his competion remains largely unchanged. I think he's good enough to put up decent numbers given enough opportunity. I simply don't see that opportunity as a given yet. Like others I'm more wait and see about it. Maybe he turns out to be a stud ala Turner. Or maybe Jack drafts a guy like Sankey in round 2. To me there is a ton of variance in how this can turn out still.
EBF
Footballguy
A lot of things CAN happen, but I'd argue that in FF the best approach is to try to determine what's LIKELY to happen. I don't see any particular reason to think it's likely that Gerhart will lose a crippling portion of his touches to a rookie RB. His price tag is still quite low with a RB30 ADP in April mocks on DLF. Taking that into account, he still represents a very good investment even if you assume some probability of him getting Ellington'd this next year.
If he were being drafted in the top 15-20 RBs then there would be more justification for caution, but a lot of the paranoia and skepticism is reflected in his price tag (too much of it, IMO). With that being the case, there's no particular reason to keep harping on it. From what I can see, the layer of risk doesn't exceed his price tag. You might as well talk about how Matt Forte, Marshawn Lynch, and Adrian Peterson COULD go the way of Ray Rice next season.
There is risk with every player, but if the risk is marginal relative to his price tag then it's not really worth a lot of attention.
If he were being drafted in the top 15-20 RBs then there would be more justification for caution, but a lot of the paranoia and skepticism is reflected in his price tag (too much of it, IMO). With that being the case, there's no particular reason to keep harping on it. From what I can see, the layer of risk doesn't exceed his price tag. You might as well talk about how Matt Forte, Marshawn Lynch, and Adrian Peterson COULD go the way of Ray Rice next season.
There is risk with every player, but if the risk is marginal relative to his price tag then it's not really worth a lot of attention.
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Gerhart was a top 15 ppg rb with Peterson hurt in 2011?
Ap got hurt in week 16...talk about cherry picking.
Donald brown got .5 million less guaranteed then gerhart, is he a buy low?
Your bias is unbelievable, hs stats...who gives a crap. It won't take much to make the rb spot in Jacksonville not a FF hotbed. In fact, they've averaged 3.3, 3.8, 4.0 as a team the last 3 years.
Ap got hurt in week 16...talk about cherry picking.
Donald brown got .5 million less guaranteed then gerhart, is he a buy low?
Your bias is unbelievable, hs stats...who gives a crap. It won't take much to make the rb spot in Jacksonville not a FF hotbed. In fact, they've averaged 3.3, 3.8, 4.0 as a team the last 3 years.
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EBF
Footballguy
Already touched on a lot of this stuff in this post, but for a quick recap:
You're right that Peterson didn't tear up his knee until week 16, but he missed several games down the stretch and only carried the ball 28 times after week 10. That also coincides with a sharp increase in Gerhart's carries from week 11 to the end of the 2011 season. If you go into any of your FF leagues and sort the RB scoring from weeks 11-17 of that year, you'll see that Gerhart was a top 12-15 FF RB in ppg (even though Peterson actually played in some of those games).
I don't know how this qualifies as "bias" since it's the closest thing Gerhart has come to being a starter in the NFL for any significant duration of time. Considering that his career YPC is higher than his average from that time frame and that Peterson vultured carries in weeks 11, 15, and 16 of that season, you can actually make an argument that the numbers are a little unkind to Gerhart.
As for this stuff...
I don't think it's that hard to find a distinction between Gerhart and Brown and if you were being objective (and not "biased") you would probably recognize it too. Brown had far more opportunity to shine with the Colts than Gerhart had as Peterson's caddy, so his lack of success to date is a lot more damning. That's not even the main point though. For at least the next season, Brown will be competing with Ryan Mathews (a former top 15 draft pick coming off a 1255 yard/4.4 YPC season) and Danny Woodhead (a top 15 ppr back last season). Meanwhile, as of right now, Gerhart's only competition is Jordan Todman and Denard Robinson. Does anyone on the planet really believe that Brown's opportunity is equivalent to Gerhart? No. If Gerhart had signed the same deal as Brown onto the same stacked Chargers team, there would be a lot less optimism regarding his short term outlook.
As for the YPC stuff, that would be a more compelling argument if it were clear that a low YPC prevents a RB from achieving useful FF status. In the last two years alone we've seen Trent Richardson, Zac Stacy, Chris Johnson, LeVeon Bell, and Knowshon Moreno (2012 stretch run) have significant FF seasons with sub 4.0 YPC averages. So even if we buy the idea that Gerhart is locked into a low YPC because of his talent/situation (hardly a given), there's still a lot of room for him to yield solid FF points if his opportunity remains strong.
The idea that I'm "biased" here would be a lot more compelling if I had a long track record of exaggerating Gerhart's value and/or if there were a lot of clear negatives that I'm overlooking. It may come as a shock after reading this thread, but I wasn't especially high on Gerhart coming out of Stanford. If you go back and read my old posts on him like this one, you will see that. I called him a poor man's Jamal Lewis, said he was a 4th round NFL draft value, and did not pick him in a single rookie draft. I only started acquiring him after he became dirt cheap as a forgotten man in Peterson's shadow. My optimism was pretty guarded until the tail end of this season, when he showed some nice flashes in spot duty. Even then, it was as much about the potential opportunity as it was about him being an awesome back.
Now that he has signed a pretty good contract and landed on a team that has no good obvious RB options and has already said they can envision Toby as a 15-20 touch per game back, I don't know how it's bias to say that he could start for that team and have reasonable FF value as a 15-20 touch per game back. It's totally consistent with all of the data points. The only real "concrete" negative being thrown around in this thread at the moment is the totally speculative idea that the Jaguars COULD draft a RB and that this player COULD significantly cut into Gerhart's immediate/future workload.
Seems to me that it requires more bias to stubbornly insist that he can't have value when so many of the signs indicate that he can and will. Doesn't mean he can't get Matt Flynn'd by a Russell Wilson in this upcoming draft, but that's a somewhat unlikely hypothetical. Based on all of the information at our disposal at this exact moment in time, there's nothing about my take on Gerhart that requires delusional optimism/denial/bias to accept. I've provided far more concrete numbers and support of my position than the lazy posters who just come in to snipe and state their subjective opinion devoid of any and all objective support.
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Gandalf the Grey
Footballguy
Weak post. First of all, you have a history of taking potshots at a particular poster you have some kind of issue with. Second, nobody advocating Gerhardt as a value pick or a potentially useful FF player has made a single mention of "FF hotbed", major straw man. The rest was addressed up thread.
az_prof
Footballguy
This is exactly how I see it. And let's not forget that almost all rookie backs struggle with pass protection and many struggle with ball security. So why is some generic third rounder, who most likely will have to address these challenges, a lock to unseat a former second rounder who was recently sought out and signed by the team?
People really have amnesia and a total lack of imagination to see anything beyond what happened last year or beyond the shine on the latest new gizmo.
jurb26
Footballguy
People really do have amnesia. Nobody is saying he will be unseated. Just that a guy could be good enough to steal valuable touches. I don't know why it keeps coming back to this.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Every RB gives up some touches. I'm sure whether it's Todman, Robinson or a rookie, Gerhardt will cede some carries - guess the extent of those carries is the debate. I do think some RBs in this draft will obviously be bigger threats than others, so I agree his value could decrease between now and the end of the draft, I'm just not sure it will be a huge drop no matter who the backup ultimately becomes because I think the staff believes in Gerhadt and he seems legit to me.
I was a bit brash earlier, caught me at a bad part of my day, my bad. I didn't realize Peterson was nicked up down the stretch, that was a few years back. So thanks for clarifying that.EBF said:
I like Toby Gerhart, I personally know his college position coach. I know all about him and I'm cheering for the kid because he works hard, runs hard, and has looked decent at times in Minnesota. However, I don't think it will take much for a rookie RB to come in and make that situation(albeit a poor situation) a committee. I don't think the money the Jags gave him is starter money, the Bears gave Michael Bush 7 million guaranteed to backup Forte. They didn't come out and say Toby Gerhart is the starter next year no matter what. It's beat writers guessing about the job and how many touches. Their HC said "15-16 carries with 3rd down reps...that's feasible. A strong possibility." It's coachspeak he didn't say he's the guy, just that he could be the guy and it would be nice. Well heck i'm sure it would be nice, but Jacksonville is a bad team that will be down often and i'm not sure the opportunities will be great + not a great run blocking OL.
When you started this thread, sure Gerhart was a buy low. I'm not quite sure how he could be a good value as this current time if owners are aware he signed in Jacksonville. The only other time he could be a buy low is if Jacksonville does draft a RB in the first 3 rounds then his value would plummet again. But if RB2 numbers are his value right now, i'm selling all day.
RB is a position that's very difficult to predict due to injuries, ineffectiveness and unsure of how players will perform when given the job. Think about the disappointments of these RBs recently: DMC many times, Chris Ivory in NY, Lamar Miller, David Wilson, Spiller, Helu, Trich, Ridley, Ingram, Rice/Pierce 2013, etc etc. RB is the one position that hurts more FF teams than it helps.
Gerhart was an excellent college RB, probably better than most on your list.
He has NFL experience and NFL production.
It's april so you, and so so so many others, think rookies will walk in and be stars. In June this mindset changes every year.
Few rookie RBs are capable of blocking in the NFL on day one. Without even discussing running the ball, Gerhart has that significant ability in his favor.
Please keep in mind if they're 3rd round RBs that every team has passed on them twice, some 3 times. Since RB is a premier coveted position in most drafts, this is indicative of the quality of RBs in this draft.
kutta
Footballguy
Disagree. What is out of hand is the rampant scepticism. It's one thing to think that Toby won't succeed. Fine. But why anyone would think that Jax signs him during free agency, let's MJD go, and then spends their second pick on another RB (when they are deficient in so many places) is a mystery to me. Later, maybe. But I'll be surprised if they take a RB before the 5th.
EBF
Footballguy
He was RB4 in his draft class behind three first round guys (Spiller, Mathews, Best).Really? How can you possibly say that?
There is nobody in the draft better than him at RB.
I would not like to see Seastrunk or Mason in the 2nd/3rd, but it's relatively unlikely that Jax will take a back until day 3 IMO.
I don't understand the Toby love. It's out of hand.
First round has already come and gone this year without a RB being chosen. What is the over/under on the number of backs who will go higher than 51st overall (Gerhart's slot) tonight? Maybe 2 go that high. Highly doubt Jax will be the ones to make those picks.
Who in this group is better than Gerhart? He is as big as Hill/Williams/Hyde and faster than all of them. He has a faster 40 time than Lache Seastrunk and the exact same time as Tre Mason even though he outweighs them both by 25-30+ pounds. And those guys are going to be better than him?
People drastically overrate the quality of this incoming RB class relative to the guys who are already in the league. It is not a very heavy group. Established starters (which Gerhart admittedly is not) have very little to fear from this collection of players.
Like always, a couple of these guys will end up being good. It's not a group full of obvious premium talents though. Considering that he was a 2nd rounder in a stronger RB class, it's hard to say that any of this year's guys are clearly better when the best any of them can hope for is to be picked in the same round.
TheFanatic
Footballguy
Where was Zac Stacy drafted last year?
A team with few holes does not draft 3rd overall.
I agree they will probably draft a RB and one higher than most people expect, but there is no guarantee that one will have much impact on Gerhart. What was that lengthy thread last year or the year before talking about how not even second round RB's have much chance to start. So even if they drafted someone with their first pick tonight, there's a small percentage that he will do much this year or beyond.
TheFanatic
Footballguy
TheFanatic
Footballguy
His rightful place of handing that rook his helmet after every long drive Gerhart helps with by pounding the rock? That place?
az_prof
Footballguy
Unless the Jags trade back into the second round, it doesn't look like they will be taking a back to displace Gerhart this year. They could take one in the third but most of the time backs taken there are added as depth or to complement a starter.
buck naked
Footballguy
I'd say drafting both Marqise Lee and Allen Robinson in round 2 is a good indication of what the Jaguars thought they needed on their offense.
