Toby Gerhart - dynasty buy? (4 Viewers)

[ShaHBucks]

Seriously - less is more...

The Jags will get one of the top 10 RBs in the draft and all have the talent to unseat any great white hope in the NFL.

I know you love this draft class. Who exactly do you consider a better talent then Gerhart? I know not Ka' Carey again...

 

[Dr. Octopus]

As for the idea of Jacksonville drafting a back, it's certainly possible. In fact, I think it's likely that they'll add one at some point.

Should Gerhart owners be worried about that? That depends. Is there a RB prospect in this draft who's clearly better than Gerhart?

On paper, he is similar to Hyde and Hill. 230 pounds. A little faster (4.50 compared to 4.66). Might not be as quick laterally, but had a stronger overall workout profile than either of those two. Similarly dominant college career. Lower YPC, but then you'd probably have to concede that LSU and Ohio State were better teams during their tenure than Stanford was during Gerhart's tenure (they were quite bad until his last year there when Luck was a first year starter). Given that Hill and Hyde are projected as 2nd-3rd rounders by most reliable sources, I don't see a strong argument for either of them being a strong favorite to beat out Gerhart in year one. Either name would potentially turn the situation into a RBBC, but then you have to ask why Jacksonville would use a top 50-90 draft pick on a non-elite 230 pounder with hands when they just signed someone exactly like that. If they draft a RB that high, I think it would make sense to get someone who isn't totally redundant with the guy they just signed for pretty decent money.

Mason is a possibility. He's a little more explosive than Toby overall, but similar in some respects. More of a power back than a speed back at the end of the day. Oh, and he'll cost you a 2nd round pick to acquire. Is that a smart investment for Jacksonville? Anything is possible, but I wouldn't bet on it. Sankey, Carey, Sims, and Freeman could be possibilities, as they're all a little quicker and better in space. Of that lot, I'm not sure I'd back any to win a starting RB battle over Gerhart in year one. They'd probably either be in a commitee or they'd be the Montee Ball to his Moreno. Seastrunk would make sense as a complement given his electric big play skills. If he's there in the 3rd-4th round, maybe they'll take him. Most of the other backs in the draft are day three types who would be big underdogs to beat him out for a job. In other words, they'd be the Gerhart to his Peterson.

If you want to take a pessimistic line, you could say there are 8-10 "grenades" in this rookie RB class who would significantly disrupt Gerhart's short-term value. If you assume that those players are equally likely to end up on any of the 32 teams in the NFL, that means you're looking at approximately a 25-30% chance of disaster. In other words, it's relatively unlikely. To believe otherwise, you'd have to argue that there are more than 8-10 backs in the draft who could significantly cut into his touches in year one and/or that the Jaguars are more likely than random to prioritize the RB position. I don't buy either of those things and would actually argue that they're LESS likely than average to invest a top 75-100 pick at RB given what they just spent on a free agent, but there's no way to know for sure.

Seriously - less is more...

The Jags will get one of the top 10 RBs in the draft and all have the talent to unseat any great white hope in the NFL.

Well at least he add solid analysis. You think there's 10 RBs better than Gerhardt in this draft? The odds are HEAVILY stacked against you.

Gerhardt was a second round NFL pick, with a storied college career, nice measurables and a solid NFL track record.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Please stop quoting people who are obviously 90% + trolling. Just use "ignore user."

 

[Dreamer]

Please stop quoting people who are obviously 90% + trolling. Just use "ignore user."

It's crazy.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Totally forgot that the Vikings traded-up for Toby.

Opportunity for RBs trumps talent without opportunity for fantasy purposes and Toby is going to get the opportunity in Jacksonville.

I'm buying.

http://members.jacksonville.com/sports/football/2014-03-12/story/jaguars-rb-toby-gerhart-eager-take-advantage-opportunity

Jaguars RB Toby Gerhart eager to take advantage of opportunityBy Vito Stellino Wed, Mar 12, 2014 @ 11:16 pm | updated Wed, Mar 12, 2014 @ 11:40 pm
The Houston Texans were on the clock in the second round of the 2010 NFL Draft when Toby Gerhart’s phone rang.

His family started celebrating that he was going to the Texans. But when he picked up the phone, the Minnesota Vikings were on the line telling me they had traded up to take him.

The Vikings made the move when they already had Adrian Peterson, one of the best running backs of this era.

That meant Gerhart was stuck in a backup role the last four years after a glittering college career at Stanford, where he won the Doak Walker and Jim Brown awards as the best back in college football and lost the Heisman Trophy by 28 points to Alabama’s Mark Ingram in the closest race ever.

At Minnesota, he was overshadowed by Peterson, even in his own family.

“It’s funny. When you have friends and family come by, it’s always, ‘I just want to meet Adrian,’ ’’ Gerhart said.

That is why it was a no-brainer for Gerhart to look for a new home when he became a free agent this week.

In his four years with the Vikings, he averaged a solid 4.7 yards a carry but carried only 276 times, so he has a lot of tread left on his tires.

The Jaguars were a good fit because they have a starting running back job open now that Maurice Jones-Drew is on the free-agent market.

Jones-Drew hasn’t signed with another team, and the Jaguars haven’t closed the door on him, but he’s unlikely to return.

Coach Gus Bradley said he told Gerhart, who signed a three-year, $10.5 million deal, “You’re No. 1.’’

Bradley, who always stresses competition, added, “Now you’ve got to compete.’’

Gerhart will compete with Jordan Todman and Denard Robinson for playing time.

Bradley stressed that Gerhart can catch the ball out of the backfield on third down so he can be an every-down back.

“I’m super excited,’’ Gerhart said. “It’s a chance to show what I can do.’’

Gerhart said if Jones-Drew comes back he can learn from him. If not, he is ready.

“It’s a tough act to follow, but I’m ready to embrace it,’’ Gerhart said.

In retrospect, Gerhart said he got a chance to learn from Peterson.

Gerhart, who also said the 49ers (he played for San Francisco coach Jim Harbaugh in college) and Browns were interested, said he talked to former Jaguars tight end Allen Reisner, who went to Minnesota after leaving the Jaguars, and quarterback Chad Henne.

“Allen said there’s no place like this, and it is something special,’’ Gerhart said.

And Gerhart said he was impressed by Bradley’s 10-minute PowerPoint presentation.

“I wish I had a notebook to write some of this stuff down. I was fired up,’’ Gerhart said.

Bradley added, “He’s got a great opportunity. Let’s see if he can capture it.’’

 

[biju]

So now with Tate signing for a cheap 2 years/$7M deal do people think Tate was over-valued by the dynasty community, Gerhart is over-valued by the Jags, a combination, or is this all justified?

I tend to think the Jags over-valued Gerhart and the dynasty community brushed off Tate's injury history a little too much.

 

[cstu]

So now with Tate signing for a cheap 2 years/$7M deal do people think Tate was over-valued by the dynasty community, Gerhart is over-valued by the Jags, a combination, or is this all justified?

I tend to think the Jags over-valued Gerhart and the dynasty community brushed off Tate's injury history a little too much.

The question about Tate is not his talent, but his health. If he stays healthy this year the Browns will likely extend his contract. Theyare just covering themselves in case he's hurt again.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

So now with Tate signing for a cheap 2 years/$7M deal do people think Tate was over-valued by the dynasty community, Gerhart is over-valued by the Jags, a combination, or is this all justified?

I tend to think the Jags over-valued Gerhart and the dynasty community brushed off Tate's injury history a little too much.

Think big picture.

Two years ago, Cleveland moved-up to the 3rd pick in the draft for RB Trent Richardson but last year jettisoned him for a late round pick.

A year later, no RBs were taken in the first round of the NFL draft and it looks like we won't have any selected in the first round this year due to a glut of talented players playing the position which is viewed as interchangeable and as a short-term position.

Last year we had 5 RBs taken in the 2nd round. Teams got production and didn't have to use first round picks but if teams can now begin to fill the RB position cheaply in free agency then what seemed like draft bargains last year could be viewed as costly since both Jacksonville and Cleveland won't be using 2nd round picks in this draft at the RB position.

Both Tate and Gerhart were 2nd round draft picks, both talented backs but we're seeing the big-picture chaning before our eyes.

I don't thin either Jacksonville or Cleveland overvalued their free agent RB signings.

I think they got NFL value and didn't have to pay high draft picks that other teams have paid.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

This article sums up the changing NFL RB landscape in terms of teams moving away from using first round draft picks on running backs but it was written over a month before this year's free agent RB signings may have shifted things even further away from the antiquaited 'franchise RB' era.

http://www.post-gazette.com/sports/steelers/2014/02/27/NFL-Combine-Running-backs-likely-to-fall-out-of-first-round-again/stories/201402270159

NFL Combine: Running backs likely to fall out of first round againFebruary 27, 2014 5:38 AM
INDIANAPOLIS — There was plenty of buzz at the NFL Scouting Combine about franchise quarterbacks, the franchise left tackles that will protect them and the deepest and most talented pool of receivers in years that will catch their passes and make the highlight reels.

Do you know what three words you didn’t hear at the combine this year?



Franchise running backs.



Once the premier position on a football team, running backs are feeling like dinosaurs. They ruled the NFL landscape for a long time, but now they’re slowly disappearing from the game.

Or at the very least the first round of the NFL draft.

In today’s NFL, running backs are becoming afterthoughts in the draft process. In 2013, for the first time in 50 years, a running back was not drafted in the first round. Don’t expect it to happen this year, either.

One of the newest NFL trends is waiting on a running back until later in the draft, and all 32 NFL teams could pass on a running back again this season in Round 1.



It’s more than a passing trend. In the past five years, only 10 running backs have been taken in the first round.

It’s enough to make one of the top running back prospects at the combine reconsider his choice to play the position.

“Nowadays, they’re like, ‘You’ve got to go second, third round,’” said Arizona running back Ka’Deem Carey, who entered the combine as the No. 1 running back according to nfldraftscout.com. “I’m like, ‘Why in the hell didn’t you tell me this a couple of years ago, that running backs are going extinct?’ I definitely would have gone to corner or something.”

There was a time NFL teams valued running backs more than any other position. In 1971, 1982 and 1987, seven running backs were drafted in the first round. In 1990, six running backs were selected in the first round. And as recently as 2008 five running backs were first-round picks.

The NFL has become more of a passing league in recent years, but Steelers general manager Kevin Colbert said the proliferation of spread offenses in college football has played a part in the trend as well. Colleges are not producing a high number of quality running backs because the emphasis has been on quarterbacks running and throwing out of the spread at many schools.

“I think it’s a result of what’s happening in college football,” Colbert said. “The running backs, for the most part in a lot of offenses … are not emphasized as much, so you don’t get to see as much production or dominance. So, you maybe don’t see a top running back, but several were taken in the second round and they ended up being productive players for their teams. If there is a great running back he’ll still go in the first round, regardless of what’s happening schematically.”

There does not appear to be a great running back in 2014. Carey is projected as a second-round pick as are Tre Mason of Auburn and Carlos Hyde of Ohio State. Carey ran a 4.70 in the 40-yard dash at the combine, one of the slowest times for a running back.

The Steelers needed a running back last year, and they waited until the middle of the second round to select Le’Veon Bell out of Michigan State. He was the second running back selected, 11 spots after the Cincinnati Bengals took Giovani Bernard with the fifth pick in the second round.

NFL teams are realizing they can get value by waiting to draft running backs until the later rounds. Of the top five rushers in the NFL in 2013, one was a first-round pick. Two were selected in the second round, one in the third round and the other in the sixth round.

“I don’t like that,” Carey said. “I feel like they think the running back spot is going extinct for some reason. They definitely need us. I’m definitely going to make sure they know that when I step on the field that they made a good pick and running backs aren’t going extinct.”

The de-emphasis of the running back position is not the only thing making backs rethink their decision to play the position. The NFL chews up and spits out running backs more rapidly than any other position.



The Steelers selected Rashard Mendenhall in the first round in 2008. He had major knee surgery in 2012 at 24 and hinted in a piece for the Huffington Post this week that he is contemplating retirement. He’ll be 27 in June.



“Every time I see the NFL logo I know it stands for Not For Long,” said Kapri Bibbs, running back from Colorado State. “You see guys come out of here and not even get on their second contract and be cut from a team. That’s a big thing for me. I know I have to get it while it’s good.”



That’s why so many running backs are coming out of college early. Seven of the top eight running backs in nfldraftscout’s rankings are underclassmen. Of that group, only Hyde completed his college eligibility.



“They definitely were in my ear, saying you have a limited numbers of hits and … you need to go while you have the chance,” Carey said of his advisers. “I know that I could have come back and played another year, got bigger and stronger and dominated at that level. But my decision was I was ready for the league. I felt like I was ready a year ago but I just couldn’t leave. I stayed consistent this year and really proved to me that I was ready to provide for my family.”

 

[ILUVBEER99]

This article sums up the changing NFL RB landscape in terms of teams moving away from using first round draft picks on running backs but it was written over a month before this year's free agent RB signings may have shifted things even further away from the antiquaited 'franchise RB' era.

http://www.post-gazette.com/sports/steelers/2014/02/27/NFL-Combine-Running-backs-likely-to-fall-out-of-first-round-again/stories/201402270159

“Nowadays, they’re like, ‘You’ve got to go second, third round,’” said Arizona running back Ka’Deem Carey, who entered the combine as the No. 1 running back according to nfldraftscout.com. “I’m like, ‘Why in the hell didn’t you tell me this a couple of years ago, that running backs are going extinct?’ I definitely would have gone to corner or something.”

LOL at Ka"deem 4.7 Carey acting like he could have been an NFL caliber corner. He's way too slow to even play safety.

 

[EBF]

So now with Tate signing for a cheap 2 years/$7M deal do people think Tate was over-valued by the dynasty community, Gerhart is over-valued by the Jags, a combination, or is this all justified?

I tend to think the Jags over-valued Gerhart and the dynasty community brushed off Tate's injury history a little too much.

Hard to say until we see what kind of return these teams get on their investments.

I think Gerhart was underrated by the pundit community in general due to a lack of snaps. You can't showcase your talent when you aren't on the field, which is a big part of the reason why guys like Tate, Moreno, and McFadden were rated ahead of Toby on most "top free agent RB lists" when he ended up getting more money. Perfect example of "out of sight, out of mind."

I think the price Jacksonville paid is fine if they get 2-3 decent years out of him. I think the price Cleveland paid for Tate is also reasonable. Neither team is going to be sunk if these guys flop or regress into bit player roles.

 

[EBF]

This article sums up the changing NFL RB landscape in terms of teams moving away from using first round draft picks on running backs but it was written over a month before this year's free agent RB signings may have shifted things even further away from the antiquaited 'franchise RB' era.

http://www.post-gazette.com/sports/steelers/2014/02/27/NFL-Combine-Running-backs-likely-to-fall-out-of-first-round-again/stories/201402270159

NFL Combine: Running backs likely to fall out of first round againFebruary 27, 2014 5:38 AM
INDIANAPOLIS — There was plenty of buzz at the NFL Scouting Combine about franchise quarterbacks, the franchise left tackles that will protect them and the deepest and most talented pool of receivers in years that will catch their passes and make the highlight reels.

Do you know what three words you didn’t hear at the combine this year?



Franchise running backs.



Once the premier position on a football team, running backs are feeling like dinosaurs. They ruled the NFL landscape for a long time, but now they’re slowly disappearing from the game.

Or at the very least the first round of the NFL draft.

In today’s NFL, running backs are becoming afterthoughts in the draft process. In 2013, for the first time in 50 years, a running back was not drafted in the first round. Don’t expect it to happen this year, either.

One of the newest NFL trends is waiting on a running back until later in the draft, and all 32 NFL teams could pass on a running back again this season in Round 1.



It’s more than a passing trend. In the past five years, only 10 running backs have been taken in the first round.

It’s enough to make one of the top running back prospects at the combine reconsider his choice to play the position.

“Nowadays, they’re like, ‘You’ve got to go second, third round,’” said Arizona running back Ka’Deem Carey, who entered the combine as the No. 1 running back according to nfldraftscout.com. “I’m like, ‘Why in the hell didn’t you tell me this a couple of years ago, that running backs are going extinct?’ I definitely would have gone to corner or something.”

There was a time NFL teams valued running backs more than any other position. In 1971, 1982 and 1987, seven running backs were drafted in the first round. In 1990, six running backs were selected in the first round. And as recently as 2008 five running backs were first-round picks.

The NFL has become more of a passing league in recent years, but Steelers general manager Kevin Colbert said the proliferation of spread offenses in college football has played a part in the trend as well. Colleges are not producing a high number of quality running backs because the emphasis has been on quarterbacks running and throwing out of the spread at many schools.

“I think it’s a result of what’s happening in college football,” Colbert said. “The running backs, for the most part in a lot of offenses … are not emphasized as much, so you don’t get to see as much production or dominance. So, you maybe don’t see a top running back, but several were taken in the second round and they ended up being productive players for their teams. If there is a great running back he’ll still go in the first round, regardless of what’s happening schematically.”

There does not appear to be a great running back in 2014. Carey is projected as a second-round pick as are Tre Mason of Auburn and Carlos Hyde of Ohio State. Carey ran a 4.70 in the 40-yard dash at the combine, one of the slowest times for a running back.

The Steelers needed a running back last year, and they waited until the middle of the second round to select Le’Veon Bell out of Michigan State. He was the second running back selected, 11 spots after the Cincinnati Bengals took Giovani Bernard with the fifth pick in the second round.

NFL teams are realizing they can get value by waiting to draft running backs until the later rounds. Of the top five rushers in the NFL in 2013, one was a first-round pick. Two were selected in the second round, one in the third round and the other in the sixth round.

“I don’t like that,” Carey said. “I feel like they think the running back spot is going extinct for some reason. They definitely need us. I’m definitely going to make sure they know that when I step on the field that they made a good pick and running backs aren’t going extinct.”

The de-emphasis of the running back position is not the only thing making backs rethink their decision to play the position. The NFL chews up and spits out running backs more rapidly than any other position.



The Steelers selected Rashard Mendenhall in the first round in 2008. He had major knee surgery in 2012 at 24 and hinted in a piece for the Huffington Post this week that he is contemplating retirement. He’ll be 27 in June.



“Every time I see the NFL logo I know it stands for Not For Long,” said Kapri Bibbs, running back from Colorado State. “You see guys come out of here and not even get on their second contract and be cut from a team. That’s a big thing for me. I know I have to get it while it’s good.”



That’s why so many running backs are coming out of college early. Seven of the top eight running backs in nfldraftscout’s rankings are underclassmen. Of that group, only Hyde completed his college eligibility.



“They definitely were in my ear, saying you have a limited numbers of hits and … you need to go while you have the chance,” Carey said of his advisers. “I know that I could have come back and played another year, got bigger and stronger and dominated at that level. But my decision was I was ready for the league. I felt like I was ready a year ago but I just couldn’t leave. I stayed consistent this year and really proved to me that I was ready to provide for my family.”

I think this angle is overplayed these days.

There were four RBs drafted in the 2nd round last year. There could be another 3-4 this year as well as several others in rounds 3-4.

The reason why there were no first rounders in 2013 and why we probably won't see any this year is because the talent isn't good enough. If you stuck Ryan Mathews, Marshawn Lynch, DeAngelo Williams, or Adrian Peterson in this draft, he would still be a 1st round pick.

Nobody this year or last year had the right combination of production and measurables.

 

[jurb26]

Next year will be a strong litmus test to the value of RBs. There are at least 2 bonafide 1st round guys and probably 3 based on talent. Gurely is a top 10 talent, Gordon a top 20 and Davis probably top 25. If they aren't taken in the first then the position is nearly dead in value to NFL GMs.

 

[EBF]

I think we'll see at least one first round RB next year, but a lot of guys who are touted as potential stud prospects don't hold up to scrutiny. This is something that you really notice after playing a few years in dev leagues and seeing "lock" first round talents like ASJ, Seastrunk, Allen, Woods, Jeffery, Benn, Lattimore, and Fuller plummet for various reasons.

I'd venture to guess that out of guys like Gordon, Gurley, Yeldon, and Davis, at least a couple will get exposed as mid rounders by the time we're at this same point a year from now. It would be hard for next year's RB class to be worse than this one, but at the same time I'm kinda over the whole "Yea, but wait 'til next year" thing when it comes to getting geeked about future draft classes.

 

[jurb26]

I think we'll see at least one first round RB next year, but a lot of guys who are touted as potential stud prospects don't hold up to scrutiny. This is something that you really notice after playing a few years in dev leagues and seeing "lock" first round talents like ASJ, Seastrunk, Allen, Woods, Jeffery, Benn, Lattimore, and Fuller plummet for various reasons.

I'd venture to guess that out of guys like Gordon, Gurley, Yeldon, and Davis, at least a couple will get exposed as mid rounders by the time we're at this same point a year from now. It would be hard for next year's RB class to be worse than this one, but at the same time I'm kinda over the whole "Yea, but wait 'til next year" thing when it comes to getting geeked about future draft classes.

Yeldon has already been exposed IMO. Gurley would require a devastating injury to me. He's proven it 2 years in a row. Davis and Gordon could falter I suppose. I think they have the goods though.

 

[EBF]

I thought I read that Gordon got a 2nd round grade from the advisory committee. Doesn't necessarily mean much, but that would go against the idea of him being some sort of first round lock monster. I see Davis as more of a Ben Tate type of guy than a first round lock at this point.

Anyway, it's a total tangent. Nothing to do with the topic of this thread.

 

[ghostguy123]

SO who traded Gerhart so far and what did you get?

I would have been on the horn with RB needy teams immediately.

 

[Biabreakable]

I thought I read that Gordon got a 2nd round grade from the advisory committee. Doesn't necessarily mean much, but that would go against the idea of him being some sort of first round lock monster. I see Davis as more of a Ben Tate type of guy than a first round lock at this point.

Anyway, it's a total tangent. Nothing to do with the topic of this thread.

I think it is relevant to the topic. This is how we figure out how NFL teams value the RB position and specific players by comparing draft classes.

 

[TheFanatic]

SO who traded Gerhart so far and what did you get?

I would have been on the horn with RB needy teams immediately.

The two leagues I'm in, the Gerhart owner is RB needy. And in both leagues I own him! In one league, all I have is LeVeon Bell and Alfred Morris and Lattimore. IT's a start 1 RB, 1 WR, 1 TE and four flex. So I can start a bunch of RB's if I want.

In the other league, I have ADP and Matthews in a start 2 RB format. My 3rd RB is David Wilson, so to say I need another RB is an understatement.

 

[EBF]

I think it's gonna take some time for the market price to establish itself. In most of the leagues where I have him, I'm not very deep at RB and he'll be very useful to me next season if he has top 20-25 numbers. Given that people seem to think he's a bit of a scrub and a sell high, I'm guessing that I'll end up keeping him and starting him rather than looking to make a quick profit off the team change.

If you look around the dynasty landscape, most of the 1-2 year rental types are fairly expensive. Guys like Forte, Peterson, and Lynch will cost you a lot. If you need instant help and you don't want to pay for a mega star, there aren't that many compelling options. I guess you could go after somebody like Reggie Bush, Ray Rice, or Chris Johnson, but it seems like Gerhart is one of the more intriguing cheap-ish win now RB2 candidates out there. That's basically the role I was hoping he would fulfill when I went after him, so now that he looks poised to do it I'm not eager to jump ship.

 

[Bojang0301]

This guy is a classic NFL RB. Runs with great power and superior vision. He's got good moves in space. If Bradley treats him like Lynch he's going to be the biggest surprise of next year. I know it's ballsy to say but given how weak sauce the NFL use of RB's is right now. He could be a #1 and it wouldn't take a lot to do it just faith in ability by the coaching staff and improvement on the D and OLine. I'm not saying draft him as an RB #1 but I'm guessing if draft day was today even with savvy owners he'd be a 4th rounder at best and I think he'd be a steal.

 

[ghostguy123]

This guy is a classic NFL RB. Runs with great power and superior vision. He's got good moves in space. If Bradley treats him like Lynch he's going to be the biggest surprise of next year. I know it's ballsy to say but given how weak sauce the NFL use of RB's is right now. He could be a #1 and it wouldn't take a lot to do it just faith in ability by the coaching staff and improvement on the D and OLine. I'm not saying draft him as an RB #1 but I'm guessing if draft day was today even with savvy owners he'd be a 4th rounder at best and I think he'd be a steal.

He has less talent than a large number of the starting RBs in the league, and is on a far worse team.

I mean, let's temper our expecations a bit shall we?

Let's also not forget they just might also draft someone.

 

[mcd]

This guy is a classic NFL RB. Runs with great power and superior vision. He's got good moves in space. If Bradley treats him like Lynch he's going to be the biggest surprise of next year. I know it's ballsy to say but given how weak sauce the NFL use of RB's is right now. He could be a #1 and it wouldn't take a lot to do it just faith in ability by the coaching staff and improvement on the D and OLine. I'm not saying draft him as an RB #1 but I'm guessing if draft day was today even with savvy owners he'd be a 4th rounder at best and I think he'd be a steal.

He has less talent than a large number of the starting RBs in the league, and is on a far worse team.

I mean, let's temper our expecations a bit shall we?

Let's also not forget they just might also draft someone.

Not sure what's not to like about Gerhart.

Jags targeted him early & have already commented possible 15-20 touches a game.

Bradley comes from a team that relied heavily on defense and a ball control running game.

Gerhart averaged close to 8 yards a carry last year, let's slot him in at half of that, 4 yards a carry & be very happy.

Gerhart is a good receiver & blocker, making him a probable 3 down player.

Gerhart is a goal line back.

He does everything better than Todman, so there really doesn't look to be a reason to sub him out except for a breather. On a side note, last season after Todman had his one good game (subbing for MJD in week 15), I expected Bradley to give him a second start to end the season & see what they had in him. Instead they went back to MJD & Todman got 6 carries for 6 yards. I think Bradley already saw him as nothing more than a backup.

While the Jags may draft a RB, they have too many more important holes to fill to draft one early. Gerhart was signed in free agency so that they wouldn't have to spend an early pick on a RB (I wouldn't expect one until round 5 or later).

Look at last years RB rankings. F. Jackson, Gore, Bernhard, Matthews, Joique Bell, Woodhead, these are your low end RB1/High end RB2.

The best part to me is his price. People are arguing over whether he is RB12 or RB22, which doesn't really matter. In my main auction league the point differential between RB13 & RB22 was right around 1 point per game. So even if he is RB24, you will be getting 90% of the production that RB12 has, at less than 1/2 the cost. I'm not saying Gerhart is a stud RB, but if he gets 15 runs/3 receptions a game (+6 or so TDs), he will be a top 15-20 back & undervalued at current pricing.

I love taking flyers on players from bad teams, they are afterthoughts to many owners. You're paying bottom value for them & if the team improves their value sky rockets. Get a McCoy or Charles & you have no room for improvement, you are paying their already maxed out price.

He's a no brainer at his current prices.

 

[buck naked]

This guy is a classic NFL RB. Runs with great power and superior vision. He's got good moves in space. If Bradley treats him like Lynch he's going to be the biggest surprise of next year. I know it's ballsy to say but given how weak sauce the NFL use of RB's is right now. He could be a #1 and it wouldn't take a lot to do it just faith in ability by the coaching staff and improvement on the D and OLine. I'm not saying draft him as an RB #1 but I'm guessing if draft day was today even with savvy owners he'd be a 4th rounder at best and I think he'd be a steal.

He has less talent than a large number of the starting RBs in the league, and is on a far worse team.

I mean, let's temper our expecations a bit shall we?

Let's also not forget they just might also draft someone.

The truth probably lies somewhere in between the two viewpoints above.

Gerhart is a solid ppr RB, and is constantly underappreciated by the fantasy community. Why is he underappreciated? I blame the inherent white RB bias. He has produced when given the opportunity in the past, though those opportunities were fairly limited at best.

But he is also on a team that probably won't score many TDs. That limits his upside.

4th round pick is too high, only because ADP will probably place him in round 6 or so in 12 team ppr leagues.

 

[jurb26]

While the Jags may draft a RB, they have too many more important holes to fill to draft one early. Gerhart was signed in free agency so that they wouldn't have to spend an early pick on a RB (I wouldn't expect one until round 5 or later).

Look at last years RB rankings. F. Jackson, Gore, Bernhard, Matthews, Joique Bell, Woodhead, these are your low end RB1/High end RB2.

The best part to me is his price. People are arguing over whether he is RB12 or RB22, which doesn't really matter. In my main auction league the point differential between RB13 & RB22 was right around 1 point per game. So even if he is RB24, you will be getting 90% of the production that RB12 has, at less than 1/2 the cost. I'm not saying Gerhart is a stud RB, but if he gets 15 runs/3 receptions a game (+6 or so TDs), he will be a top 15-20 back & undervalued at current pricing.

What are all these holes that Jack need to fill? I'm not seeing it. They need a QB and possibly some more oline help. This is a team that looks primed to take the BPA at nearly every pick, outside of maybe reaching for a QB. Drafting a RB in rounds 2 - 4 wouldn't surprise me in the least. I'm not sure how you're league scores but the difference between RB12 and RB22 in my leagues was 3 points per game roughly. That's a massive difference from 1. It's more than 20% difference in production. Either way, basing future performance on last year is a silly thing to do. We have no idea what the production gap will be this year and it is in no way dependent on last year.

To me Garhart's value is still very much in flux. If Jack drafts a guy early then people will hit the panic button. If they don't really add anyone else the hype will hit 5th gear.

 

[ghostguy123]

At his current price??? His current price is 10x what it was a week ago. He is more or a sell right now than a buy.

 

[mcd]

While the Jags may draft a RB, they have too many more important holes to fill to draft one early. Gerhart was signed in free agency so that they wouldn't have to spend an early pick on a RB (I wouldn't expect one until round 5 or later).

Look at last years RB rankings. F. Jackson, Gore, Bernhard, Matthews, Joique Bell, Woodhead, these are your low end RB1/High end RB2.

The best part to me is his price. People are arguing over whether he is RB12 or RB22, which doesn't really matter. In my main auction league the point differential between RB13 & RB22 was right around 1 point per game. So even if he is RB24, you will be getting 90% of the production that RB12 has, at less than 1/2 the cost. I'm not saying Gerhart is a stud RB, but if he gets 15 runs/3 receptions a game (+6 or so TDs), he will be a top 15-20 back & undervalued at current pricing.

What are all these holes that Jack need to fill? I'm not seeing it. They need a QB and possibly some more oline help. This is a team that looks primed to take the BPA at nearly every pick, outside of maybe reaching for a QB. Drafting a RB in rounds 2 - 4 wouldn't surprise me in the least.I'm not sure how you're league scores but the difference between RB12 and RB22 in my leagues was 3 points per game roughly. That's a massive difference from 1. It's more than 20% difference in production. Either way, basing future performance on last year is a silly thing to do. We have no idea what the production gap will be this year and it is in no way dependent on last year.

To me Garhart's value is still very much in flux. If Jack drafts a guy early then people will hit the panic button. If they don't really add anyone else the hype will hit 5th gear.

I would expect a QB, OL & outside pass rusher (DE or OLB) with the first 3 (possibly 4) picks. They do have 2 4th round picks so I guess that is a possibility, but with multiple 5ths I would expect that would be the spot they would grab a RB. Wouldn't surprise me to see multiple defensive players or OL selected in the first 4 rounds as Bradley finds pieces to recreate his Seattle D & build his OL. He picked up Bryant & Clemens but both are declining players to a degree. Jags have been last in sacks for the last 2 years so I would consider that some pretty serious holes that need to be taken care of, especially if Bradley wants to run his Seattle D.

Scoring for RB 12 was 10.3 points while RB 22 was 9.2 in my league, scoring system is on the low side. Point being that with the new passing rules, there are only a handful of top end RBs. The rest, whether classified as a low end RB1 or a high end RB3 are really not that far apart. You are severely overpaying for RBs after the first 6-8 of them. Why not take the leftovers, lose a few points, but make up for it at WR.

After the top 10-12 backs all the rest are in a state of flux if a talented backup is added. Many wouldn't lose the starting spot, but take away goal line work or 3rd down receptions & it changes all their values. I'm not saying Gerhart is a top talent, but he does all the little things well & could really be one of the few backs that play in all formations. That's all it would take to make him worth his asking price.

 

[mcd]

At his current price??? His current price is 10x what it was a week ago. He is more or a sell right now than a buy.

I haven't seen him traded in any of my leagues. I heard mid/late 2nd round picks as reasonable before he landed in Jacksonville. So he's now going for 10x that? Doubtful. Anyone have a trade happen since he was signed?

I get it though, you don't like him, never have, before he signed or after he signed.

We will see.

 

[tone1oc]

The time to sell will be after the draft. Its a bit of a risk, but I believe that the Jags will not draft a RB to compete with him in 2014. Always a chance they do, and if they do invest in one of the top 5 RBs his value could dip a bit. But the payoff will be a lot more than it is today if he makes through the draft as the clear #1.

 

[Skeletore Eh]

The time to sell will be after the draft. Its a bit of a risk, but I believe that the Jags will not draft a RB to compete with him in 2014. Always a chance they do, and if they do invest in one of the top 5 RBs his value could dip a bit. But the payoff will be a lot more than it is today if he makes through the draft as the clear #1.

 

[coolnerd]

This guy is a classic NFL RB. Runs with great power and superior vision. He's got good moves in space. If Bradley treats him like Lynch he's going to be the biggest surprise of next year. I know it's ballsy to say but given how weak sauce the NFL use of RB's is right now. He could be a #1 and it wouldn't take a lot to do it just faith in ability by the coaching staff and improvement on the D and OLine. I'm not saying draft him as an RB #1 but I'm guessing if draft day was today even with savvy owners he'd be a 4th rounder at best and I think he'd be a steal.

He has less talent than a large number of the starting RBs in the league, and is on a far worse team.

I mean, let's temper our expecations a bit shall we?

Let's also not forget they just might also draft someone.

The truth probably lies somewhere in between the two viewpoints above.

Gerhart is a solid ppr RB, and is constantly underappreciated by the fantasy community. Why is he underappreciated? I blame the inherent white RB bias. He has produced when given the opportunity in the past, though those opportunities were fairly limited at best.

But he is also on a team that probably won't score many TDs. That limits his upside.

4th round pick is too high, only because ADP will probably place him in round 6 or so in 12 team ppr leagues.

Seriously, there have been not enough white RBs with any chance to be the clear lead back for anyone to draw any sort conclusion either way. Anybody pro or con Gerhart for that reason is the one bringing the bias.
I mean I would not ran Knowshon Moreno any higher or lower than Gerhart if he got the same contract with Jacksonville.

 

[Brewtown]

This article sums up the changing NFL RB landscape in terms of teams moving away from using first round draft picks on running backs but it was written over a month before this year's free agent RB signings may have shifted things even further away from the antiquaited 'franchise RB' era.

http://www.post-gazette.com/sports/steelers/2014/02/27/NFL-Combine-Running-backs-likely-to-fall-out-of-first-round-again/stories/201402270159

NFL Combine: Running backs likely to fall out of first round again

February 27, 2014 5:38 AM

INDIANAPOLIS — There was plenty of buzz at the NFL Scouting Combine about franchise quarterbacks, the franchise left tackles that will protect them and the deepest and most talented pool of receivers in years that will catch their passes and make the highlight reels.

Do you know what three words you didn’t hear at the combine this year?



Franchise running backs.



Once the premier position on a football team, running backs are feeling like dinosaurs. They ruled the NFL landscape for a long time, but now they’re slowly disappearing from the game.

Or at the very least the first round of the NFL draft.

In today’s NFL, running backs are becoming afterthoughts in the draft process. In 2013, for the first time in 50 years, a running back was not drafted in the first round. Don’t expect it to happen this year, either.

One of the newest NFL trends is waiting on a running back until later in the draft, and all 32 NFL teams could pass on a running back again this season in Round 1.



It’s more than a passing trend. In the past five years, only 10 running backs have been taken in the first round.

It’s enough to make one of the top running back prospects at the combine reconsider his choice to play the position.

“Nowadays, they’re like, ‘You’ve got to go second, third round,’” said Arizona running back Ka’Deem Carey, who entered the combine as the No. 1 running back according to nfldraftscout.com. “I’m like, ‘Why in the hell didn’t you tell me this a couple of years ago, that running backs are going extinct?’ I definitely would have gone to corner or something.”

There was a time NFL teams valued running backs more than any other position. In 1971, 1982 and 1987, seven running backs were drafted in the first round. In 1990, six running backs were selected in the first round. And as recently as 2008 five running backs were first-round picks.

The NFL has become more of a passing league in recent years, but Steelers general manager Kevin Colbert said the proliferation of spread offenses in college football has played a part in the trend as well. Colleges are not producing a high number of quality running backs because the emphasis has been on quarterbacks running and throwing out of the spread at many schools.

“I think it’s a result of what’s happening in college football,” Colbert said. “The running backs, for the most part in a lot of offenses … are not emphasized as much, so you don’t get to see as much production or dominance. So, you maybe don’t see a top running back, but several were taken in the second round and they ended up being productive players for their teams. If there is a great running back he’ll still go in the first round, regardless of what’s happening schematically.”

There does not appear to be a great running back in 2014. Carey is projected as a second-round pick as are Tre Mason of Auburn and Carlos Hyde of Ohio State. Carey ran a 4.70 in the 40-yard dash at the combine, one of the slowest times for a running back.

The Steelers needed a running back last year, and they waited until the middle of the second round to select Le’Veon Bell out of Michigan State. He was the second running back selected, 11 spots after the Cincinnati Bengals took Giovani Bernard with the fifth pick in the second round.

NFL teams are realizing they can get value by waiting to draft running backs until the later rounds. Of the top five rushers in the NFL in 2013, one was a first-round pick. Two were selected in the second round, one in the third round and the other in the sixth round.

“I don’t like that,” Carey said. “I feel like they think the running back spot is going extinct for some reason. They definitely need us. I’m definitely going to make sure they know that when I step on the field that they made a good pick and running backs aren’t going extinct.”

The de-emphasis of the running back position is not the only thing making backs rethink their decision to play the position. The NFL chews up and spits out running backs more rapidly than any other position.



The Steelers selected Rashard Mendenhall in the first round in 2008. He had major knee surgery in 2012 at 24 and hinted in a piece for the Huffington Post this week that he is contemplating retirement. He’ll be 27 in June.



“Every time I see the NFL logo I know it stands for Not For Long,” said Kapri Bibbs, running back from Colorado State. “You see guys come out of here and not even get on their second contract and be cut from a team. That’s a big thing for me. I know I have to get it while it’s good.”



That’s why so many running backs are coming out of college early. Seven of the top eight running backs in nfldraftscout’s rankings are underclassmen. Of that group, only Hyde completed his college eligibility.



“They definitely were in my ear, saying you have a limited numbers of hits and … you need to go while you have the chance,” Carey said of his advisers. “I know that I could have come back and played another year, got bigger and stronger and dominated at that level. But my decision was I was ready for the league. I felt like I was ready a year ago but I just couldn’t leave. I stayed consistent this year and really proved to me that I was ready to provide for my family.”

I think this angle is overplayed these days.

There were four RBs drafted in the 2nd round last year. There could be another 3-4 this year as well as several others in rounds 3-4.

The reason why there were no first rounders in 2013 and why we probably won't see any this year is because the talent isn't good enough. If you stuck Ryan Mathews, Marshawn Lynch, DeAngelo Williams, or Adrian Peterson in this draft, he would still be a 1st round pick.

Nobody this year or last year had the right combination of production and measurables.

I think that you are again missing the mark.

The running back position itself has obviously been put on the back burner by NFL GMs because they are viewed as easily replaceable, easy to get hurt, and not worth a hefty investment.

Adrian Peterson is the only RB that you listed that would be a for sure first round pick....

 

[cstu]

I think that you are again missing the mark.

The running back position itself has obviously been put on the back burner by NFL GMs because they are viewed as easily replaceable, easy to get hurt, and not worth a hefty investment.

Adrian Peterson is the only RB that you listed that would be a for sure first round pick....

I guarantee if Reggie Bush came out in this draft he'd be a 1st round pick.

RB's aren't less important, there are just less elite talents and bad teams have finally realized that drafting RB's early is not a good way to build a team.

 

[cstu]

14 RB's have been taken in the top 62 picks the past 3 years. Still seems like a valuable position in the NFL.

 

[az_prof]

Now that Tate has signed for 2 years/7 M, and Moreno and MJD still unsigned, I think we can see how much the Jags valued Gerhart.

 

[Stealthycat]

goof point az_prof

and CJ1K is still out there too

 

[jurb26]

14 RB's have been taken in the top 62 picks the past 3 years. Still seems like a valuable position in the NFL.

62 is such an arbitrary number to stop on. Not sure why you did that. Here is some quick analysis I did on NFL positions in the draft the past 3 years, rounds 1 & 2.

Position/Players taken/ADP

QB/13/18

T/19/25

DE/25/28

DB/31/32

C&G/16/33

WR/22/33.5

LB/21/36

DT/20/44

RB/15/45

Unfortunately ESPN doesn't separate S and CB. My assumption would be that CB go higher and more are drafted. I decided to combine interior linemen because they get drafted to play both and the amount of C are tiny. It's an interchangeable position by and large.

This clearly suggests what I think many already internally assume and recognize in the NFL. The most vital and valuable position is QB and that is reflected in the ADP and total drafted (though not as evident). The 2nd most valuable position is the guys who protect the most valuable. Not surprising. 3rd comes the guys who get to the QB. Again no surprise.

As you can see, RB is rather easily the least valued position on the list. I really don't think it's debatable.

 

[Bojang0301]

If anyone saw my last post... I apologize I thought I was in the McFadden thread.

 

[Brewtown]

14 RB's have been taken in the top 62 picks the past 3 years. Still seems like a valuable position in the NFL.

62 is such an arbitrary number to stop on. Not sure why you did that. Here is some quick analysis I did on NFL positions in the draft the past 3 years, rounds 1 & 2.

Position/Players taken/ADP

QB/13/18

T/19/25

DE/25/28

DB/31/32

C&G/16/33

WR/22/33.5

LB/21/36

DT/20/44

RB/15/45

Unfortunately ESPN doesn't separate S and CB. My assumption would be that CB go higher and more are drafted. I decided to combine interior linemen because they get drafted to play both and the amount of C are tiny. It's an interchangeable position by and large.

This clearly suggests what I think many already internally assume and recognize in the NFL. The most vital and valuable position is QB and that is reflected in the ADP and total drafted (though not as evident). The 2nd most valuable position is the guys who protect the most valuable. Not surprising. 3rd comes the guys who get to the QB. Again no surprise.

As you can see, RB is rather easily the least valued position on the list. I really don't think it's debatable.

Jurb26 - good information here.

Even the data points to NFL teams devaluing the running back position.

 

[TheFanatic]

This guy is a classic NFL RB. Runs with great power and superior vision. He's got good moves in space. If Bradley treats him like Lynch he's going to be the biggest surprise of next year. I know it's ballsy to say but given how weak sauce the NFL use of RB's is right now. He could be a #1 and it wouldn't take a lot to do it just faith in ability by the coaching staff and improvement on the D and OLine. I'm not saying draft him as an RB #1 but I'm guessing if draft day was today even with savvy owners he'd be a 4th rounder at best and I think he'd be a steal.

He has less talent than a large number of the starting RBs in the league, and is on a far worse team.

I mean, let's temper our expecations a bit shall we?

Let's also not forget they just might also draft someone.

The truth probably lies somewhere in between the two viewpoints above.Gerhart is a solid ppr RB, and is constantly underappreciated by the fantasy community. Why is he underappreciated? I blame the inherent white RB bias. He has produced when given the opportunity in the past, though those opportunities were fairly limited at best.

But he is also on a team that probably won't score many TDs. That limits his upside.

4th round pick is too high, only because ADP will probably place him in round 6 or so in 12 team ppr leagues.

Seriously, there have been not enough white RBs with any chance to be the clear lead back for anyone to draw any sort conclusion either way. Anybody pro or con Gerhart for that reason is the one bringing the bias.

I mean I would not ran Knowshon Moreno any higher or lower than Gerhart if he got the same contract with Jacksonville.

I'm looking at this post and trying to figure out exactly how this was edited. Could it be any more grammatically jacked up before? I don't see how.

 

[ghostguy123]

At his current price??? His current price is 10x what it was a week ago. He is more or a sell right now than a buy.

I haven't seen him traded in any of my leagues. I heard mid/late 2nd round picks as reasonable before he landed in Jacksonville. So he's now going for 10x that? Doubtful. Anyone have a trade happen since he was signed?

I get it though, you don't like him, never have, before he signed or after he signed.

We will see.

He is on waivers in some of my leagues. Granted, FFPC with smaller rosters, but before he went to the Jags who was trading a 2nd for him?

I can see some people (like some in this thread) that will probably give you a mid 1st for him. If so, take it and dont look back.

 

[cstu]

14 RB's have been taken in the top 62 picks the past 3 years. Still seems like a valuable position in the NFL.

62 is such an arbitrary number to stop on. Not sure why you did that.Here is some quick analysis I did on NFL positions in the draft the past 3 years, rounds 1 & 2.

Position/Players taken/ADP

QB/13/18

T/19/25

DE/25/28

DB/31/32

C&G/16/33

WR/22/33.5

LB/21/36

DT/20/44

RB/15/45

Unfortunately ESPN doesn't separate S and CB. My assumption would be that CB go higher and more are drafted. I decided to combine interior linemen because they get drafted to play both and the amount of C are tiny. It's an interchangeable position by and large.

This clearly suggests what I think many already internally assume and recognize in the NFL. The most vital and valuable position is QB and that is reflected in the ADP and total drafted (though not as evident). The 2nd most valuable position is the guys who protect the most valuable. Not surprising. 3rd comes the guys who get to the QB. Again no surprise.

As you can see, RB is rather easily the least valued position on the list. I really don't think it's debatable.

You don't see a problem with you lumping all these together that that multiple positions? RB's are being taken later but just as many (if not more) are being taken in the first two rounds as other positions.

64 picks in 2 rounds * 3 years = 192 picks. 192 divided by 22 positions = 8.7 players per position. 15 RB's were taken.

 

[Brewtown]

14 RB's have been taken in the top 62 picks the past 3 years. Still seems like a valuable position in the NFL.

62 is such an arbitrary number to stop on. Not sure why you did that.Here is some quick analysis I did on NFL positions in the draft the past 3 years, rounds 1 & 2.Position/Players taken/ADPQB/13/18T/19/25DE/25/28DB/31/32C&G/16/33WR/22/33.5LB/21/36DT/20/44RB/15/45Unfortunately ESPN doesn't separate S and CB. My assumption would be that CB go higher and more are drafted. I decided to combine interior linemen because they get drafted to play both and the amount of C are tiny. It's an interchangeable position by and large.This clearly suggests what I think many already internally assume and recognize in the NFL. The most vital and valuable position is QB and that is reflected in the ADP and total drafted (though not as evident). The 2nd most valuable position is the guys who protect the most valuable. Not surprising. 3rd comes the guys who get to the QB. Again no surprise.As you can see, RB is rather easily the least valued position on the list. I really don't think it's debatable.

You don't see a problem with you lumping all these together that that multiple positions? RB's are being taken later but just as many (if not more) are being taken in the first two rounds as other positions.64 picks in 2 rounds * 3 years = 192 picks. 192 divided by 22 positions = 8.7 players per position. 15 RB's were taken.

His Data is better than your simple math...

 

[cstu]

His Data is better than your simple math...

Sure.

 

[jurb26]

14 RB's have been taken in the top 62 picks the past 3 years. Still seems like a valuable position in the NFL.

62 is such an arbitrary number to stop on. Not sure why you did that.Here is some quick analysis I did on NFL positions in the draft the past 3 years, rounds 1 & 2.Position/Players taken/ADPQB/13/18T/19/25DE/25/28DB/31/32C&G/16/33WR/22/33.5LB/21/36DT/20/44RB/15/45Unfortunately ESPN doesn't separate S and CB. My assumption would be that CB go higher and more are drafted. I decided to combine interior linemen because they get drafted to play both and the amount of C are tiny. It's an interchangeable position by and large.This clearly suggests what I think many already internally assume and recognize in the NFL. The most vital and valuable position is QB and that is reflected in the ADP and total drafted (though not as evident). The 2nd most valuable position is the guys who protect the most valuable. Not surprising. 3rd comes the guys who get to the QB. Again no surprise.As you can see, RB is rather easily the least valued position on the list. I really don't think it's debatable.

You don't see a problem with you lumping all these together that that multiple positions? RB's are being taken later but just as many (if not more) are being taken in the first two rounds as other positions.64 picks in 2 rounds * 3 years = 192 picks. 192 divided by 22 positions = 8.7 players per position. 15 RB's were taken.

I thought I explained why I lumped the positions. There aren't 22 positions. There are 22 players on a field at a given time but always multiple players from a bunch of positions. By my count at most there are 15. QB

RB

WR

TE

C

G

T

K

DT

DE

ILB

OLB

S

CB

P

I'm sure we can agree to remove K and P for obvious reasons.

Even still, if we use your reasoning it doesn't account for the lowest ADP of all positions. It's the lowest and really not all that close with the exception of DT.

I've got no ax to grind here. I've been think about this topic for a few days now so when I saw your post I decided to just run a quick check on the past 3 years and see what it said about RB value. I stand by the fact that it seems it has been severely devalued and is the least valued position of all based on the 3 year sample. Now if you want to argue that we have had an abnormal drought of talent at the RB position I'm ok with that. I still don't think it changes things much. It could certainly be a contributing factor though.

 

[EBF]

This might be a tangent here, but...

There are basically three types of RBs who get picked in the first round:

1. 215-220+ pounders with good NCAA production and rare burst for that size (4.55 or better in the 40, 10' or better in the broad jump, 35" or better in the vertical).

[ex: Doug Martin, Ryan Mathews, Jonathan Stewart]

2. Speed backs with elite burst/explosiveness (4.3X or better in the 40 and generally elite numbers in the jumps).

[ex: Reggie Bush, Chris Johnson, CJ Spiller]

3. Overrated 215-220+ pounders who put up huge stats for big name college programs, but have pedestrian workout numbers.

[ex: Mark Ingram, Knowshon Moreno, Cedric Benson]

In other words, big backs with + explosiveness for their size, small backs with unreal explosiveness, and big backs who are overrated because they play on a prominent stage at the college level (I'd argue that none of Benson, Moreno, and Ingram should've been first rounders in hindsight).

So why were there no first round RBs last year? Because nobody fit the mold. The big guys (Bell and Lacy) had woeful combine measurables. The little guy (Bernard) was only moderately explosive in combine testing (4.50 flat and just okay in the jumps). The only guys who fit the mold on paper (Knile Davis and Christine Michael) had serious durability/production question marks. Thus there was nobody in the entire pool who had the right combination of traits.

Same story this year. The big guys who are projected to go high (Hyde and Hill) both bombed at the combine with slow 40 times and bad jumps. The guys who were projected to go high and tested well in the drills (Sankey and Mason) are both below 210 pounds and neither showed "wow" level speed or explosiveness with 4.50 and 4.49 in the 40 (although their jumps were pretty good). Similar story with Seastrunk. Had he cranked a 4.3X, he might fit the mold as a Bush/CJ type of guy), but his 4.51 time combined with his 201 pound weight totally rule out the possibility of him going in the first round. Andre Williams is the only guy with the right combination of bulk and measured explosiveness, but then everyone knows subjectively that he's a two down back who can't catch the ball.

I don't think the NFL has devalued the RB position. It has always been hard for a RB to get picked in the first round. The 2013 and 2014 groups simply lacked the special talents who had the right combination of rare production and rare physical tools. The workout warriors have production issues. The big backs didn't test well enough. The little backs didn't run fast enough. So there you have it.

 

[Bojang0301]

The value of the RB in fantasy has been driven way down thanks to the NFL's emphasis on the spread. That being said reminds me of the downfall of the TE when only Gonzo was dominant... Soon after Heap, Gates, Dallas Clark then the next wave of Vernon Davis, Gronkowski, even Kellen Winslow with his million injuries and psychotic behavior. What won in the NFL this season? Defense and ground control. Has passing become more prevelant with rule changes? Yes, but were also looking at the renassaince of the Quarterback. Never in league history have they seen QB's of this caliber all at once. I'm not sure it will ever go back to RB's being highly drafted because of the short careers and ease of replaceability but I don't think the position is dead and it definitely still wins you fantasy leagues.

 

[EBF]

Adding on to my last post, I think teams only really feel tempted to spend a first round pick on a RB when they see someone with uncommon traits. It's not that hard to find a guy who can rush for 3.X YPC and catch some dump-off passes. You can reliably get players like on day three of the draft or even as UDFAs. So of course it doesn't make any sense to spend a first round pick on that guy. Not when you can get Brandon Bolden, Spencer Ware, Mike James, and Joique Bell for basically nothing.

On the other hand, it's rare to see a RB who has the size/speed/explosiveness combination of guys like Adrian Peterson, Jonathan Stewart, and Ryan Mathews. That player gives you everything you're getting from the likes of Bolden/Ware/James, but has the added dimension of possessing rare home run speed and explosiveness in conjunction with the basic power back stuff. Guys like Chris Johnson, Spiller, and Bush are deficient in terms of power, but their explosiveness is so exceptional that they're still worth a premium.

I think most of the runners in the last draft were basically replacement level players. It's not that Bell and Lacy are bad, but if you stuck a Bolden or Ware in their shoes then you'd probably get a pretty similar output. Likewise, I don't see too many guys in this year's crop who have plus traits. Maybe Seastrunk, Mason, and Williams. Those are probably the only three that I would think about drafting on day 2 if I were an NFL GM. I don't think anyone out there has the right combination of traits to be considered a first round talent.

I think Gerhart shades closer to the Lacy/Bell group than the Peterson/Stewart group, although he's pretty close to meeting the first round explosiveness cutoffs with his 4.50 40 time and 38" vertical at 230 pounds. Only the 9'10" broad jump is off from what you'd want to see in a first round back. My sense is that he's more of a 1-2 year replacement level stopgap than a legitimate long-term franchise back, but he might be closer than we think. He's got the receiving ability and the size. Just not quite the dynamic explosiveness.

 

[Eminence]

Adding on to my last post, I think teams only really feel tempted to spend a first round pick on a RB when they see someone with uncommon traits. It's not that hard to find a guy who can rush for 3.X YPC and catch some dump-off passes. You can reliably get players like on day three of the draft or even as UDFAs. So of course it doesn't make any sense to spend a first round pick on that guy. Not when you can get Brandon Bolden, Spencer Ware, Mike James, and Joique Bell for basically nothing.

On the other hand, it's rare to see a RB who has the size/speed/explosiveness combination of guys like Adrian Peterson, Jonathan Stewart, and Ryan Mathews. That player gives you everything you're getting from the likes of Bolden/Ware/James, but has the added dimension of possessing rare home run speed and explosiveness in conjunction with the basic power back stuff. Guys like Chris Johnson, Spiller, and Bush are deficient in terms of power, but their explosiveness is so exceptional that they're still worth a premium.

I think most of the runners in the last draft were basically replacement level players. It's not that Bell and Lacy are bad, but if you stuck a Bolden or Ware in their shoes then you'd probably get a pretty similar output. Likewise, I don't see too many guys in this year's crop who have plus traits. Maybe Seastrunk, Mason, and Williams. Those are probably the only three that I would think about drafting on day 2 if I were an NFL GM. I don't think anyone out there has the right combination of traits to be considered a first round talent.

I think Gerhart shades closer to the Lacy/Bell group than the Peterson/Stewart group, although he's pretty close to meeting the first round explosiveness cutoffs with his 4.50 40 time and 38" vertical at 230 pounds. Only the 9'10" broad jump is off from what you'd want to see in a first round back. My sense is that he's more of a 1-2 year replacement level stopgap than a legitimate long-term franchise back, but he might be closer than we think. He's got the receiving ability and the size. Just not quite the dynamic explosiveness.

Great post.

 

[jurb26]

This might be a tangent here, but...

There are basically three types of RBs who get picked in the first round:

1. 215-220+ pounders with good NCAA production and rare burst for that size (4.55 or better in the 40, 10' or better in the broad jump, 35" or better in the vertical).

[ex: Doug Martin, Ryan Mathews, Jonathan Stewart]

2. Speed backs with elite burst/explosiveness (4.3X or better in the 40 and generally elite numbers in the jumps).

[ex: Reggie Bush, Chris Johnson, CJ Spiller]

3. Overrated 215-220+ pounders who put up huge stats for big name college programs, but have pedestrian workout numbers.

[ex: Mark Ingram, Knowshon Moreno, Cedric Benson]

In other words, big backs with + explosiveness for their size, small backs with unreal explosiveness, and big backs who are overrated because they play on a prominent stage at the college level (I'd argue that none of Benson, Moreno, and Ingram should've been first rounders in hindsight).

So why were there no first round RBs last year? Because nobody fit the mold. The big guys (Bell and Lacy) had woeful combine measurables. The little guy (Bernard) was only moderately explosive in combine testing (4.50 flat and just okay in the jumps). The only guys who fit the mold on paper (Knile Davis and Christine Michael) had serious durability/production question marks. Thus there was nobody in the entire pool who had the right combination of traits.

Same story this year. The big guys who are projected to go high (Hyde and Hill) both bombed at the combine with slow 40 times and bad jumps. The guys who were projected to go high and tested well in the drills (Sankey and Mason) are both below 210 pounds and neither showed "wow" level speed or explosiveness with 4.50 and 4.49 in the 40 (although their jumps were pretty good). Similar story with Seastrunk. Had he cranked a 4.3X, he might fit the mold as a Bush/CJ type of guy), but his 4.51 time combined with his 201 pound weight totally rule out the possibility of him going in the first round. Andre Williams is the only guy with the right combination of bulk and measured explosiveness, but then everyone knows subjectively that he's a two down back who can't catch the ball.

I don't think the NFL has devalued the RB position. It has always been hard for a RB to get picked in the first round. The 2013 and 2014 groups simply lacked the special talents who had the right combination of rare production and rare physical tools. The workout warriors have production issues. The big backs didn't test well enough. The little backs didn't run fast enough. So there you have it.

It's easy to say that the talent hasn't been there and that there is some magical mold to getting in the 1st round. The problem is, other positions go through the same lulls and yet they don't see this sever devaluation in the draft. Take QB as the other extreme. In that same 3 years we have had only a couple of guys worthy of top 16 picks at QB. Yet, NFL teams have forced 5 other guys like Manuel, Gabbert, Weeden, Locker and Ponder into that top 16. If the position held as much value then teams would reach for players who were fringe, like we see in nearly every other position.