Toby Gerhart - dynasty buy? (1 Viewer)

[tone1oc]

What has he done that makes you believe he isn't talented?

I didn't think he was a legit starting RB when he was drafted. I don't think he is now.

Sure, I think he will have good games here and there, probably for a short stretch of time. I don't see him as a dependable fantasy starter for me at all.

We get your stance, I think what we're looking for is some substance behind the lack of talent belief.

It's because he's white, isn't it?

 

[EBF]

‏"@RapSheethttps://twitter.com/RapSheet: For Toby Gerhart and the #Jaguars, its a 3-year deal worth $10.5M with $4.5M guaranteed. Strong."



4.5M guaranteed in this RB market to me means that the Jags obviously believe he's going to be a big part of their team.

It's pretty big money. Provided that he stays healthy, he's going to be a top 20 and maybe even a top 12-15 back in FF this season.

Top 12 is a huge stretch. The Jacksonville offense suuuucks. They ran for only 1260 - 7 as a team last year at 3.3 YPC. Gerhart will be the lead RB certainly, but he's going to face some tough sledding there.

They also trotted out some pretty bad backs last year.

I'm not expecting a brilliant YPC. Don't underestimate how much a few dumpoffs per game can pad his stats in PPR leagues. LeVeon Bell and Zac Stacy had really good FF seasons last year on 3.5 and and 3.9 YPC. Trent Richardson had a really good FF season in 2012 on 3.6 YPC.

You get the ball 15-20 times per game, you're going to have value by default.

 

[lbouchard]

What has he done that makes you believe he isn't talented?

I didn't think he was a legit starting RB when he was drafted. I don't think he is now.

Sure, I think he will have good games here and there, probably for a short stretch of time. I don't see him as a dependable fantasy starter for me at all.

Ok, so despite great college production, a very solid combine, being a relatively high draft pick, and having shown out whenever he's got the chance in the NFL so far, you don't think he's a legit starting RB. I get that. Give me an example of a player you would throw him out there for.

 

[ghostguy123]

We get your stance, I think what we're looking for is some substance behind the lack of talent belief.

It's because he's white, isn't it?

Anything I say give you that idea?

What do you want, numbers, his height and weight and 40 time??

I watched some in college, some in the pros, and I dont think he is a guy who will give me good fantasy numbers for the duration of a season.

 

[TheFanatic]

Last rumors have him signing in Arizona to be RBBC with Ellington. (Still worries over Ellington's durability.)

I actually expect he has plenty left in the tank. He may be 27, but as little as he has played, his wear and tear is more like a 25 y\o or less.

That is a myth. The whole tread on the tires thing is crap. Studies have shown that the more mileage a guy gets, the more likely he will play longer. Those guys know how to deal with the year in and year out grind.

I don't believe in that explanation. I think the reason that players who get the most carries early in their career also play the longest is because players who get the most carries early in their career tend to be the most durable and talented. For example, why do Ray Rice and Chris Johnson have more career carries than Felix Jones and Darren McFadden? Simply because they're better players and they've been better able to hold up to the workload.

This doesn't in any way mean that high carries early in the career are good for the body. Correlation ≠ causation.

Guys that got their start a few years into their career (Preist Holmes and Turner to name a couple) still washed out around 30 just like everyone else despite "low mileage." Why didn't either of them play until they were 35?

Because the recuperative ability of the body as well as their speed went down every year whether they had 100 touches or 300.

The low mileage stuff is a load of crap. No matter what, Gerhart is going to be iffy at best in 2 years despite having very low mileage right now. He's still 27 and by 30 he's probably be working out on his own in October still waiting for an injury. That's reality...

 

[bonesman]

As a Gerhart and Todman owner I kinda feel like it is a no-lose situation.

LMAO

 

[Sabertooth]

I own him in two leagues as my apparent RB3. I like him there. I could see him plugging in around RB30 or so when the dust settles.

 

[ghostguy123]

What has he done that makes you believe he isn't talented?

I didn't think he was a legit starting RB when he was drafted. I don't think he is now.

Sure, I think he will have good games here and there, probably for a short stretch of time. I don't see him as a dependable fantasy starter for me at all.

Ok, so despite great college production, a very solid combine, being a relatively high draft pick, and having shown out whenever he's got the chance in the NFL so far, you don't think he's a legit starting RB. I get that. Give me an example of a player you would throw him out there for.

You are the one asking, so you throw some players out to me and I will tell you who I prefer.

 

[Sabertooth]

Right now I would not take Trent Richardson for him. Weird to write that. Imagine writing the following sentence 12 months ago.

I would not trade away Toby Gerhart in exchange for Trent Richardson.

 

[ghostguy123]

Right now I would not take Trent Richardson for him. Weird to write that. Imagine writing the following sentence 12 months ago.

I would not trade away Toby Gerhart in exchange for Trent Richardson.

I'll take Trent. If for nothing else the remote possibility of a value spike to trade him later

 

[cstu]

What has he done that makes you believe he isn't talented?

I didn't think he was a legit starting RB when he was drafted. I don't think he is now.

Sure, I think he will have good games here and there, probably for a short stretch of time. I don't see him as a dependable fantasy starter for me at all.

I actually thought he could be one when he was drafted, but not now.

 

[KellysHeroes]

hes going on the block when I get home, wonder what some RB needy teams in my league will give me

 

[Coeur de Lion]

‏"@RapSheet: For Toby Gerhart and the #Jaguars, its a 3-year deal worth $10.5M with $4.5M guaranteed. Strong."



4.5M guaranteed in this RB market to me means that the Jags obviously believe he's going to be a big part of their team.

It's pretty big money. Provided that he stays healthy, he's going to be a top 20 and maybe even a top 12-15 back in FF this season.

Top 12 is a huge stretch. The Jacksonville offense suuuucks. They ran for only 1260 - 7 as a team last year at 3.3 YPC. Gerhart will be the lead RB certainly, but he's going to face some tough sledding there.

They also trotted out some pretty bad backs last year.

I'm not expecting a brilliant YPC. Don't underestimate how much a few dumpoffs per game can pad his stats in PPR leagues. LeVeon Bell and Zac Stacy had really good FF seasons last year on 3.5 and and 3.9 YPC. Trent Richardson had a really good FF season in 2012 on 3.6 YPC.

You get the ball 15-20 times per game, you're going to have value by default.

Most of that was MJD -- old or no he's still at least decent. Jacksonville RBs didn't catch a ton of passes last year. Gerhart can be a RB2; I'd bet my left nut he's not a RB1.

 

[Steed]

I'd say the naysayers completely underestimated the market for him. Aside from dmc who signed for peanuts because he knew there was nothing out there for him, Toby was the first RB to sign and he signed for relatively big money by today's standards. He's gonna be Gus bradley's version of marshawn lynch. Tons of touches with a rookie qb and ball control offense.

I'm pretty happy this move is getting panned by most outlets. He'll make for a nice rb2 for those of us that like to go heavy wr early. Grab an upside RB later and hope he incubates into a zac Stacy type while gerhardt holds down the position for 2 months.

 

[tone1oc]

I'd say the naysayers completely underestimated the market for him. Aside from dmc who signed for peanuts because he knew there was nothing out there for him, Toby was the first RB to sign and he signed for relatively big money by today's standards. He's gonna be Gus bradley's version of marshawn lynch. Tons of touches with a rookie qb and ball control offense.

I'm pretty happy this move is getting panned by most outlets. He'll make for a nice rb2 for those of us that like to go heavy wr early. Grab an upside RB later and hope he incubates into a zac Stacy type while gerhardt holds down the position for 2 months.

THIS.

More than anything I take from this contract that the Jags really wanted him and see him as a big piece to their puzzle.

 

[Tick]

Hey couch! Nice to hear from you!

Heya Bia! Howzit going?

Jan / Feb are heavy work times for me, and I'm afraid most of last year wasn't much better. I've posted in SP very little. Free time is improving though. Had some vacation time in early March, and now I'm getting the FF juices going again with all the free agency stuff!

Just glad you are still breathing! I was a little worried about ya.

Any plans to do a dynasty ranking thread in the near future?

I've been thinking about it. Maybe we should set up a poll to see if anyone cares enough to bother. LOL.

Nice to see discussion from some respected oldtimers.

 

[lbouchard]

What has he done that makes you believe he isn't talented?

I didn't think he was a legit starting RB when he was drafted. I don't think he is now.

Sure, I think he will have good games here and there, probably for a short stretch of time. I don't see him as a dependable fantasy starter for me at all.

Ok, so despite great college production, a very solid combine, being a relatively high draft pick, and having shown out whenever he's got the chance in the NFL so far, you don't think he's a legit starting RB. I get that. Give me an example of a player you would throw him out there for.

You are the one asking, so you throw some players out to me and I will tell you who I prefer.

Ok, in DLF's March ADP, released today, the names surrounding Gerhart are Tim Wright, Brandon Bostick, Quinton Patton, Harry Douglas, Stephen Hill, Shonn Greene, and Robert Turbin.

Obviously, with today's news, his ADP will jump in the next round. However, it is currently at 213.5 overall. So far, from what I've seen, people like you are the majority. Even a jump of around 50 would put him near Mike Williams, Pierre Thomas, Joseph Fauria, Andy Dalton, Kenny Britt, James Jones, and Denarius Moore.

 

[saintfool]

pretty good situation for him in a crummy market. i would have liked him in NYG blue because he seems like an NFC East kind of player. that said, he is a player with good upside. certainly better than most other FA RBs out there.

also, this tells me that this draft is perceived as really weak at the RB position.

 

[cstu]

I'd say the naysayers completely underestimated the market for him. Aside from dmc who signed for peanuts because he knew there was nothing out there for him, Toby was the first RB to sign and he signed for relatively big money by today's standards. He's gonna be Gus bradley's version of marshawn lynch. Tons of touches with a rookie qb and ball control offense.

I'm pretty happy this move is getting panned by most outlets. He'll make for a nice rb2 for those of us that like to go heavy wr early. Grab an upside RB later and hope he incubates into a zac Stacy type while gerhardt holds down the position for 2 months.

THIS.

More than anything I take from this contract that the Jags really wanted him and see him as a big piece to their puzzle.

Gerhart got nearly the same deal Shonn Greene did last year:

Gerhart: 3 year/$10.5M, $4.5M guaranteed

Greene: 3 year/$10M, $4.15M guaranteed

 

[saintfool]

I'd say the naysayers completely underestimated the market for him. Aside from dmc who signed for peanuts because he knew there was nothing out there for him, Toby was the first RB to sign and he signed for relatively big money by today's standards. He's gonna be Gus bradley's version of marshawn lynch. Tons of touches with a rookie qb and ball control offense.

I'm pretty happy this move is getting panned by most outlets. He'll make for a nice rb2 for those of us that like to go heavy wr early. Grab an upside RB later and hope he incubates into a zac Stacy type while gerhardt holds down the position for 2 months.

THIS.

More than anything I take from this contract that the Jags really wanted him and see him as a big piece to their puzzle.

Gerhart got nearly the same deal Shonn Greene did last year:

Gerhart: 3 year/$10.5M, $4.5M guaranteed

Greene: 3 year/$10M, $4.15M guaranteed

interesting that Greene is now the starter in Nashville.

 

[EBF]

He was underestimated going into FA and now there are further positive indicators:

- Signed on the first day of FA.

- Relatively big money contract.

- Landed on a team with no starter.

He will still have to dodge the draft hurdle, but there aren't any obvious premium talents in this RB class and most of the guys who would represent clear threats to him will require a 2nd-3rd rounder to draft. Given the low importance of the position, the number of team needs elsewhere, and the high $$$ of his contract, I find it unlikely that Jax goes with a RB that high. What's more likely is that they take a flyer on a day 3 guy for depth and to groom for the future.

I think he's likely to be their opening day starter and if he plays 14-16 games he should finish with 250+ carries and quite a few catches. He's strictly a 2-3 year window play in dynasty leagues due to his advanced age, but the same is true of guys like Lynch, Peterson, and Forte. I don't rate Toby on their level, but it's not inconceivable that his FF output could be in the same ballpark for the duration of their careers. I haven't thought about where I'd rank him on a startup dynasty RB list, but my sense is that he's likely to present nice value based on the continued (mistaken?) perception that he's not good enough to post strong numbers.

He should be valued as a mid-low RB2 in redraft leagues. That's a realistic expectation and he actually does have low RB1 upside if everything clicks. As we saw with Bell and Lacy last year, you don't have to put up awesome rushing numbers if you're getting 3-4 catches per game and 15+ carries.

 

[ghostguy123]

Ok, in DLF's March ADP, released today, the names surrounding Gerhart are Tim Wright, Brandon Bostick, Quinton Patton, Harry Douglas, Stephen Hill, Shonn Greene, and Robert Turbin.

Obviously, with today's news, his ADP will jump in the next round. However, it is currently at 213.5 overall. So far, from what I've seen, people like you are the majority. Even a jump of around 50 would put him near Mike Williams, Pierre Thomas, Joseph Fauria, Andy Dalton, Kenny Britt, James Jones, and Denarius Moore.

Well, considering a few good games is more than all those players will have combined from now till the end of time.........................probably take Toby over all of them. Except maybe Britt, cause I am an idiot and like him. Also James Jones if he landed in an ideal spot.

Not to mention RB scarcity makes him more valuable than QB/WR/TE shlubs.

If we are talking redraft, I would have Gerhart a lot higher than dynasty rankings.

 

[ghostguy123]

I will say this for Toby though, he did go to the most ideal spot giving him the highest possible chance to start most of the games. Unless they draft someone now, which is very possible.

Cant wait to see some stupid Gerhart trades in the other thread

 

[Tick]

Last rumors have him signing in Arizona to be RBBC with Ellington. (Still worries over Ellington's durability.)

I actually expect he has plenty left in the tank. He may be 27, but as little as he has played, his wear and tear is more like a 25 y\o or less.

That is a myth. The whole tread on the tires thing is crap. Studies have shown that the more mileage a guy gets, the more likely he will play longer. Those guys know how to deal with the year in and year out grind.

I don't believe in that explanation. I think the reason that players who get the most carries early in their career also play the longest is because players who get the most carries early in their career tend to be the most durable and talented. For example, why do Ray Rice and Chris Johnson have more career carries than Felix Jones and Darren McFadden? Simply because they're better players and they've been better able to hold up to the workload.

This doesn't in any way mean that high carries early in the career are good for the body. Correlation ≠ causation.

Guys that got their start a few years into their career (Preist Holmes and Turner to name a couple) still washed out around 30 just like everyone else despite "low mileage." Why didn't either of them play until they were 35?

Because the recuperative ability of the body as well as their speed went down every year whether they had 100 touches or 300.

The low mileage stuff is a load of crap. No matter what, Gerhart is going to be iffy at best in 2 years despite having very low mileage right now. He's still 27 and by 30 he's probably be working out on his own in October still waiting for an injury. That's reality...

Some good stuff on this, mostly Drinen-based:

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/articles/age.htm

http://triceratops.brynmawr.edu/dspace/bitstream/handle/10066/6074/2010KennedyC_Thesis.pdf?sequence=1

http://www.footballguys.com/06drinen-agework.php

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2008/08freelance_laszlo01.php

 

[tone1oc]

I'd say the naysayers completely underestimated the market for him. Aside from dmc who signed for peanuts because he knew there was nothing out there for him, Toby was the first RB to sign and he signed for relatively big money by today's standards. He's gonna be Gus bradley's version of marshawn lynch. Tons of touches with a rookie qb and ball control offense.

I'm pretty happy this move is getting panned by most outlets. He'll make for a nice rb2 for those of us that like to go heavy wr early. Grab an upside RB later and hope he incubates into a zac Stacy type while gerhardt holds down the position for 2 months.

THIS.

More than anything I take from this contract that the Jags really wanted him and see him as a big piece to their puzzle.

Gerhart got nearly the same deal Shonn Greene did last year:

Gerhart: 3 year/$10.5M, $4.5M guaranteed

Greene: 3 year/$10M, $4.15M guaranteed

Please explain why Greene's contract matters in the context of todays market where DMC who was many experts #1 FA RB basically got peanuts from his old team.

 

[saintfool]

ok, with Gerhart signed, that makes my mid-season RB-flyer-strategy as pretty good. i expected Tate to do okay for himself and still do. that just leaves Leshoure to find a home.

 

[EBF]

Here are some recent RB contracts/extensions. The first number is the average annual salary. The second number is the guaranteed money.

Ray Rice - 8.0 / 24.0

Marshawn Lynch - 7.5 / 17.0

Jonathan Stewart - 7.3 / 22.5

Michael Turner - 5.75 / 15.0

LaMont Jordan - 5.5 / 11.0

Reggie Bush - 4.0 / ??

Steven Jackson - 4.0 / 4.0

Michael Bush - 3.5 / 7.0

Toby Gerhart - 3.5 / 4.5

Joique Bell - 3.5 / 4.3

Shonn Greene - 3.3 / 4.5

BenJarvus Green-Ellis - 3.0 / 4.0

Rashard Mendenhall - 2.5 / ??

Chris Ivory - 2.0 / ??

Danny Woodhead - 1.75 / ??

Both the salary and guaranteed money are well off the pace of an elite franchise back. Those guys make about twice as much salary and generally received about 3-4 times as much guaranteed money. Gerhart's deal is more in line with RBBC/stopgap guys like Bell, Greene, and BJGE. That points towards him being a piece of the puzzle, but not necessarily the long-term guy. Most likely a 1-2 year stopgap or in a commitee with a rookie.

On the other hand, his deal is within shouting distance of what Reggie Bush and Steven Jackson got with the Lions and Falcons respectively. It's also a lot more than what relatively unproven players like Woodhead and Ivory received. It's almost identical to what BJGE and Greene received. As mediocre as those backs are, it's worth pointing out that both of them had already posted at least one 1000+ yard season at the time of their contract. And Green-Ellis did get one year as a starter before Cincy brought in Bernard.

Just based on the financials, I'd predict that he'll either be a RBBC guy with a rookie or he'll get a chance to start unquestioned for a year, after which point he'll either remain as the starter (if he does well) or fall into some kind of committee situation (if he does poorly).

None of that screams elite FF asset, but certainly his value gets a big spike after this move and potentially a much bigger spike if he delivers on the field next year.

 

[EBF]

I'd stop short of calling this contract the best case scenario for a player in his position, but realistically it's pretty close. You're not going to get Rice/Lynch money without proving yourself as an elite starter. Given Toby's situation, that was never gonna happen. About the best he could've realistically hoped for was Jordan/Turner money. Right around $5.5 million per season. That's probably the ceiling for what a RB can make without a proven track record as a starter. What he got is probably the next rung down. Basically an amount of money that says, "We like you, but we don't want to pay you like you're a sure thing."

If you want a favorable comparison, Thomas Jones got $10 million for four years with ~3.5 guaranteed when he signed with the Bears.

 

[coolnerd]

‏"@RapSheethttps://twitter.com/RapSheet: For Toby Gerhart and the #Jaguars, its a 3-year deal worth $10.5M with $4.5M guaranteed. Strong."



4.5M guaranteed in this RB market to me means that the Jags obviously believe he's going to be a big part of their team.

It's pretty big money. Provided that he stays healthy, he's going to be a top 20 and maybe even a top 12-15 back in FF this season.

Top 12 is a huge stretch. The Jacksonville offense suuuucks. They ran for only 1260 - 7 as a team last year at 3.3 YPC. Gerhart will be the lead RB certainly, but he's going to face some tough sledding there.

They also trotted out some pretty bad backs last year.

I'm not expecting a brilliant YPC. Don't underestimate how much a few dumpoffs per game can pad his stats in PPR leagues. LeVeon Bell and Zac Stacy had really good FF seasons last year on 3.5 and and 3.9 YPC. Trent Richardson had a really good FF season in 2012 on 3.6 YPC.

You get the ball 15-20 times per game, you're going to have value by default.

Most of that was MJD -- old or no he's still at least decent. Jacksonville RBs didn't catch a ton of passes last year. Gerhart can be a RB2; I'd bet my left nut

Careful, many years there are some pretty uninspiring dudes who stay healthy, and end up as RB10-12 in overall points

2013 See Fred Jackson and Danny Woodhead 11,12 in one of my PPRs

 

[Brewtown]

What happens when they draft Jeremy Hill in the 4th round?

 

[Brewtown]

Chargers agreed to terms with RB Donald Brown, formerly of the Colts, on a three-year, $10.5 million contract.

The deal includes $4 million guaranteed. With the Chargers already having Danny Woodhead and Ryan Mathews, this one is a definite head scratcher. Mathews is coming off a breakout year, while Woodhead is due just $1.75 million after another strong season. It's worth noting that Bolts GM Tom Telesco is the Colts' former VP of football operations. He clearly has a soft spot for "Dammit Donald," who seemed like a lost cause until picking up the pieces for Trent Richardson last season. He'll likely serve as a deluxe Ronnie Brown, catching passes and picking up blitzes, though he's never been a terribly effective pass protector.

Source: Ian Rapoport on Twitter Mar 11 - 11:26 PM

Meh....

 

[ShaHBucks]

ShaBucks BS post annoyed me, but maybe he just does not know how good Lamont Jordan was. In any case I don't think it is right to criticize other peoples opinions without offering an honest opinion of your own.

I'm sorry?? I really wasn't talking about the L. Jordan comp to begin with. I was talking about how every comment seemed to discount Gerhart to a certain extent. Maybe it was just me. I think it was in the "dynasty ranking" thread where I read some really optimistic post on Ingram. I didn't hear the same tunes here when Gerhart had about a 75% chance of really increasing his value. Ingram and Gerhart have been tied to the hip for me since I thought Gerhart should have won the Heisman and that he was a far better pro prospect. If Ingram continues to flop while Gerhart does well then I'm not sure I said anything wrong. He's been discounted as a talent for whatever reason. It showed in his ADP. I bet it still will.

Jaguars signed RB Toby Gerhart to a three-year, $10.5 million contract.

The shockingly hefty deal includes $4.5 million guaranteed, ensuring that Gerhart will run ahead of incumbent Jordan Todman as the Jags 2014 starter. Free agent Maurice Jones-Drew is a goner. It's putting a ton of faith Gerhart, a four-year backup that excels in pass protection but has very little wiggle or burst to his game. And with Chad Henne at quarterback, there aren't going to be very many short-yardage touchdown opportunities. Fantasy owners and the Jags project to be disappointed by Gerhart as a feature back.

This is from rotoworld just for an example. They would be better off starting from scratch than making projections right now. It could be because he's been off the radar for so long. He has a ton of physical and performance traits that are comparable to high-end FF RBs. As of now I hope MJD leaves and the Jags grab Bridgewater.

 

[biju]

What happens when they draft Jeremy Hill in the 4th round?

Obviously it would be difficult for me to know this for fact so this is only speculation, but Gus Bradley seems to be building the team very similarly to how Seattle was built in 2010/2011. This, to me, would mean they aren't worried about drafting skill positions and focused more on the trenches (O-line since they just signed Red Bryant?) and defense in general.

Do you really think it matters which RB is playing in Jacksonville if they have a ####ty O-line? I've never understood why teams pay big money for RBs and WRs if they don't have the basics in place.

 

[Bri]

I'm excited.

I love this guy's determination with the ball in college. A genuine "tough guy" type runner, workman like going to wear down a defense. Looking forward to meh numbers at halftime that increase significantly in the 2nd half.

Harbaugh used to gush over Gerhart. Top 3-4 runner out of college.

I've been waiting, have him in every dynasty league and am glad he's getting his shot.

He's not for everyone; there's not much shake N bake with him, it's more grit. Fun to watch though

 

[menobrown]

Not happening. You'd pretty much need to be signed to be a starter to be RB 18-23 and no one is signing this guy to be their starting RB. He has zero chance of taking that kind of leap in the next week. At best a good landing spot might see him jump 20-25 spots. To take the kind of leap you suggest he'd need to be projected as an opening day starter and that won't happen by design. If he ends up being any teams opening day starter it's because plan A failed.

Impossible to say without knowing what teams are thinking behind close doors. There's a perception in the FF community that he's a dime-a-dozen scrub, but I don't know how accurate that is. He was a high pick. He has played well in limited duty. He has a versatile skill set with some plus traits. How would signing him to be the frontrunner for your starting job be any worse than using a 2nd-3rd round pick on someone like Lacy, Bell, Hyde, Hill, or Mason with the same goal?

If I'm Oakland or Jacksonville and I can get him for cheap, I'd rather let him babysit my RB spot for a couple years and use my draft picks on premium positions than draft a comparable talent in the 2nd-3rd round. I think maybe because he has been stuck behind Peterson all these years people have forgotten that when he came into the league he was regarded approximately with the same degree of optimism that guys like Hyde and Sankey are today.

Clearly he's not a Peterson/MJD/McCoy/Charles level talent. I see no clear distinction between him and the next class down though.

Ok, have not been following this thread today so have no idea what anyone had been talking about.

I still stand behind the comment I made that there was no scenario a week from now that he would rise to RB18-23 but he got closer than I thought. Depending on what they do in the draft and then training camp he has a chance to rise to that level and even exceed it but not now. At least not in my rankings and I doubt the consensus. He took a big jump today, just not that high.

That being said I might be wrong when I said if he's any teams starting it's because Plan A went wrong. He might have just been signed to be the starter but again part of depending on that taking place right now and why his value did not jump up to RB18-23, that and so many people questions if he's talented enough to handle a bigger load.

But really the only reason I'm posting this is to say good job on the call. If he ends up as highly as you touted him it won't matter if it takes until season to come to fruition and for sure his value went up big time today. If anyone took your advice and got him for what his value was a few days ago they just saw at a minimum a huge spike in his value today.

 

[KellysHeroes]

I'd say the naysayers completely underestimated the market for him. Aside from dmc who signed for peanuts because he knew there was nothing out there for him, Toby was the first RB to sign and he signed for relatively big money by today's standards. He's gonna be Gus bradley's version of marshawn lynch. Tons of touches with a rookie qb and ball control offense.

I'm pretty happy this move is getting panned by most outlets. He'll make for a nice rb2 for those of us that like to go heavy wr early. Grab an upside RB later and hope he incubates into a zac Stacy type while gerhardt holds down the position for 2 months.

THIS.

More than anything I take from this contract that the Jags really wanted him and see him as a big piece to their puzzle.

Gerhart got nearly the same deal Shonn Greene did last year:

Gerhart: 3 year/$10.5M, $4.5M guaranteed

Greene: 3 year/$10M, $4.15M guaranteed

interesting that Greene is now the starter in Nashville.

??? CJ been cut

 

[deadlyrange0321]

Not happening. You'd pretty much need to be signed to be a starter to be RB 18-23 and no one is signing this guy to be their starting RB. He has zero chance of taking that kind of leap in the next week. At best a good landing spot might see him jump 20-25 spots. To take the kind of leap you suggest he'd need to be projected as an opening day starter and that won't happen by design. If he ends up being any teams opening day starter it's because plan A failed.

Impossible to say without knowing what teams are thinking behind close doors. There's a perception in the FF community that he's a dime-a-dozen scrub, but I don't know how accurate that is. He was a high pick. He has played well in limited duty. He has a versatile skill set with some plus traits. How would signing him to be the frontrunner for your starting job be any worse than using a 2nd-3rd round pick on someone like Lacy, Bell, Hyde, Hill, or Mason with the same goal?

If I'm Oakland or Jacksonville and I can get him for cheap, I'd rather let him babysit my RB spot for a couple years and use my draft picks on premium positions than draft a comparable talent in the 2nd-3rd round. I think maybe because he has been stuck behind Peterson all these years people have forgotten that when he came into the league he was regarded approximately with the same degree of optimism that guys like Hyde and Sankey are today.

Clearly he's not a Peterson/MJD/McCoy/Charles level talent. I see no clear distinction between him and the next class down though.

Ok, have not been following this thread today so have no idea what anyone had been talking about.

I still stand behind the comment I made that there was no scenario a week from now that he would rise to RB18-23 but he got closer than I thought. Depending on what they do in the draft and then training camp he has a chance to rise to that level and even exceed it but not now. At least not in my rankings and I doubt the consensus. He took a big jump today, just not that high.

That being said I might be wrong when I said if he's any teams starting it's because Plan A went wrong. He might have just been signed to be the starter but again part of depending on that taking place right now and why his value did not jump up to RB18-23, that and so many people questions if he's talented enough to handle a bigger load.

But really the only reason I'm posting this is to say good job on the call. If he ends up as highly as you touted him it won't matter if it takes until season to come to fruition and for sure his value went up big time today. If anyone took your advice and got him for what his value was a few days ago they just saw at a minimum a huge spike in his value today.

I got him for the 3.03 rookie pick on Monday morning. Haven't received any offers yet but I'd have to guess that value might move up to the 2.03 now. Definitely will see a spike in his value, and then probably another spike if/when they do not draft a RB.

 

[Biabreakable]

ShaBucks BS post annoyed me, but maybe he just does not know how good Lamont Jordan was. In any case I don't think it is right to criticize other peoples opinions without offering an honest opinion of your own.

I'm sorry?? I really wasn't talking about the L. Jordan comp to begin with. I was talking about how every comment seemed to discount Gerhart to a certain extent. Maybe it was just me. I think it was in the "dynasty ranking" thread where I read some really optimistic post on Ingram. I didn't hear the same tunes here when Gerhart had about a 75% chance of really increasing his value. Ingram and Gerhart have been tied to the hip for me since I thought Gerhart should have won the Heisman and that he was a far better pro prospect. If Ingram continues to flop while Gerhart does well then I'm not sure I said anything wrong. He's been discounted as a talent for whatever reason. It showed in his ADP. I bet it still will.

Jaguars signed RB Toby Gerhart to a three-year, $10.5 million contract.

The shockingly hefty deal includes $4.5 million guaranteed, ensuring that Gerhart will run ahead of incumbent Jordan Todman as the Jags 2014 starter. Free agent Maurice Jones-Drew is a goner. It's putting a ton of faith Gerhart, a four-year backup that excels in pass protection but has very little wiggle or burst to his game. And with Chad Henne at quarterback, there aren't going to be very many short-yardage touchdown opportunities. Fantasy owners and the Jags project to be disappointed by Gerhart as a feature back.

This is from rotoworld just for an example. They would be better off starting from scratch than making projections right now. It could be because he's been off the radar for so long. He has a ton of physical and performance traits that are comparable to high-end FF RBs. As of now I hope MJD leaves and the Jags grab Bridgewater.

Ok my bad then. I thought you were talking about opinions put forth in this thread. Which is what you said. No worries. At the same time I do think it is important to give your own opinion before bashing others for theirs. So thank you for doing that.

 

[tdmills]

I'd stop short of calling this contract the best case scenario for a player in his position, but realistically it's pretty close. You're not going to get Rice/Lynch money without proving yourself as an elite starter. Given Toby's situation, that was never gonna happen. About the best he could've realistically hoped for was Jordan/Turner money. Right around $5.5 million per season. That's probably the ceiling for what a RB can make without a proven track record as a starter. What he got is probably the next rung down. Basically an amount of money that says, "We like you, but we don't want to pay you like you're a sure thing."

If you want a favorable comparison, Thomas Jones got $10 million for four years with ~3.5 guaranteed when he signed with the Bears.

Sounds like a backpedal from the top 20 or top 12 talk you said earlier.

You're seriously quoting a Thomas Jones deal from 2004...salaries are different a decade later!

Gerhart got 4.5 million guaranteed

D.Brown got 4 million guaranteed

J. Bell got 4 million guaranteed

 

[Warhogs]

I like Gerhart and hope he gets a chance and does well but it's still the Jaguars. I can see him putting up solid RB2 numbers if he gets the carries but TDs will probably be hard to come by in Jacksonville.

 

[az_prof]

Not happening. You'd pretty much need to be signed to be a starter to be RB 18-23 and no one is signing this guy to be their starting RB. He has zero chance of taking that kind of leap in the next week. At best a good landing spot might see him jump 20-25 spots. To take the kind of leap you suggest he'd need to be projected as an opening day starter and that won't happen by design. If he ends up being any teams opening day starter it's because plan A failed.

Impossible to say without knowing what teams are thinking behind close doors. There's a perception in the FF community that he's a dime-a-dozen scrub, but I don't know how accurate that is. He was a high pick. He has played well in limited duty. He has a versatile skill set with some plus traits. How would signing him to be the frontrunner for your starting job be any worse than using a 2nd-3rd round pick on someone like Lacy, Bell, Hyde, Hill, or Mason with the same goal?

If I'm Oakland or Jacksonville and I can get him for cheap, I'd rather let him babysit my RB spot for a couple years and use my draft picks on premium positions than draft a comparable talent in the 2nd-3rd round. I think maybe because he has been stuck behind Peterson all these years people have forgotten that when he came into the league he was regarded approximately with the same degree of optimism that guys like Hyde and Sankey are today.

Clearly he's not a Peterson/MJD/McCoy/Charles level talent. I see no clear distinction between him and the next class down though.

Ok, have not been following this thread today so have no idea what anyone had been talking about.

I still stand behind the comment I made that there was no scenario a week from now that he would rise to RB18-23 but he got closer than I thought. Depending on what they do in the draft and then training camp he has a chance to rise to that level and even exceed it but not now. At least not in my rankings and I doubt the consensus. He took a big jump today, just not that high.

That being said I might be wrong when I said if he's any teams starting it's because Plan A went wrong. He might have just been signed to be the starter but again part of depending on that taking place right now and why his value did not jump up to RB18-23, that and so many people questions if he's talented enough to handle a bigger load.

But really the only reason I'm posting this is to say good job on the call. If he ends up as highly as you touted him it won't matter if it takes until season to come to fruition and for sure his value went up big time today. If anyone took your advice and got him for what his value was a few days ago they just saw at a minimum a huge spike in his value today.

I got him for the 3.03 rookie pick on Monday morning. Haven't received any offers yet but I'd have to guess that value might move up to the 2.03 now. Definitely will see a spike in his value, and then probably another spike if/when they do not draft a RB.

I would say 2.03 is the minimum value. He is looking like a starting RB on a team without a lot of competition. That has to make him at least RB25. What kind of rookie RB will you be able to draft at 2.03? An NFL third or fourth rounder. That's a guy who won't start his rookie year and may never start or perform in fantasy. Gerhart won't have as many years of potential production because of his age, but he has a very good chance of delivering 1-2 years of starting RB value. in PPR I think the value is even more because he has a pretty good receiver and is a good enough blocker to stay in on passing downs. He is a good enough short yardage back to get the goal line opportunities.

What do other people see as his rookie draft value? I would put him in the same range as Ray Rice: 1.07-2.02, but personally, I wouldn't trade him for less than a 1.12.

 

[Boone22]

Not happening. You'd pretty much need to be signed to be a starter to be RB 18-23 and no one is signing this guy to be their starting RB. He has zero chance of taking that kind of leap in the next week. At best a good landing spot might see him jump 20-25 spots. To take the kind of leap you suggest he'd need to be projected as an opening day starter and that won't happen by design. If he ends up being any teams opening day starter it's because plan A failed.

Impossible to say without knowing what teams are thinking behind close doors. There's a perception in the FF community that he's a dime-a-dozen scrub, but I don't know how accurate that is. He was a high pick. He has played well in limited duty. He has a versatile skill set with some plus traits. How would signing him to be the frontrunner for your starting job be any worse than using a 2nd-3rd round pick on someone like Lacy, Bell, Hyde, Hill, or Mason with the same goal?

If I'm Oakland or Jacksonville and I can get him for cheap, I'd rather let him babysit my RB spot for a couple years and use my draft picks on premium positions than draft a comparable talent in the 2nd-3rd round. I think maybe because he has been stuck behind Peterson all these years people have forgotten that when he came into the league he was regarded approximately with the same degree of optimism that guys like Hyde and Sankey are today.

Clearly he's not a Peterson/MJD/McCoy/Charles level talent. I see no clear distinction between him and the next class down though.

Ok, have not been following this thread today so have no idea what anyone had been talking about.

I still stand behind the comment I made that there was no scenario a week from now that he would rise to RB18-23 but he got closer than I thought. Depending on what they do in the draft and then training camp he has a chance to rise to that level and even exceed it but not now. At least not in my rankings and I doubt the consensus. He took a big jump today, just not that high.

That being said I might be wrong when I said if he's any teams starting it's because Plan A went wrong. He might have just been signed to be the starter but again part of depending on that taking place right now and why his value did not jump up to RB18-23, that and so many people questions if he's talented enough to handle a bigger load.

But really the only reason I'm posting this is to say good job on the call. If he ends up as highly as you touted him it won't matter if it takes until season to come to fruition and for sure his value went up big time today. If anyone took your advice and got him for what his value was a few days ago they just saw at a minimum a huge spike in his value today.

I got him for the 3.03 rookie pick on Monday morning. Haven't received any offers yet but I'd have to guess that value might move up to the 2.03 now. Definitely will see a spike in his value, and then probably another spike if/when they do not draft a RB.

I would say 2.03 is the minimum value. He is looking like a starting RB on a team without a lot of competition. That has to make him at least RB25. What kind of rookie RB will you be able to draft at 2.03? An NFL third or fourth rounder. That's a guy who won't start his rookie year and may never start or perform in fantasy. Gerhart won't have as many years of potential production because of his age, but he has a very good chance of delivering 1-2 years of starting RB value. in PPR I think the value is even more because he has a pretty good receiver and is a good enough blocker to stay in on passing downs. He is a good enough short yardage back to get the goal line opportunities. What do other people see as his rookie draft value? I would put him in the same range as Ray Rice: 1.07-2.02, but personally, I wouldn't trade him for less than a 1.12.

IF Jax passes on RBs in the draft I agree with your comments. The question is whether Jax takes a RB in the top 3 rounds. If that happens then it's a competition or a possible timeshare.

 

[Stealthycat]

how is Gerhart at pass protections/blocking?

if he's solid - he's a potential 3 down back, he can catch pretty well too, right ?

 

[JaxBill]

Jags OC Jedd Fisch says in press conference that Gerhart "can do it all on offense"

 

[Biabreakable]

how is Gerhart at pass protections/blocking?

if he's solid - he's a potential 3 down back, he can catch pretty well too, right ?

He is very good in pass protection and as a receiver. So good that Vikings fans have been annoyed at him spelling Peterson on 3rd downs for the most part until Peterson came back from his injury in 2012 (where Peterson started getting more 3rd down snaps). The change to letting Peterson get more 3rd down looks has more to do with Peterson wanting those downs than it does Gerharts ability (Gerhart still may be slightly better than Peterson in pass protection).

 

[Young 8]

Jags OC Jedd Fisch says in press conference that Gerhart "can do it all on offense"

Honestly I don't remember many successful "white" starting NFL RBs in the last 15/20 years.....

 

[Steelers4Life]

So what's a solid value for the guy in a dynasty league right now?

I own him in one and have already rejected 3rd rounders and bench players quite easily.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Not happening. You'd pretty much need to be signed to be a starter to be RB 18-23 and no one is signing this guy to be their starting RB. He has zero chance of taking that kind of leap in the next week. At best a good landing spot might see him jump 20-25 spots. To take the kind of leap you suggest he'd need to be projected as an opening day starter and that won't happen by design. If he ends up being any teams opening day starter it's because plan A failed.

Impossible to say without knowing what teams are thinking behind close doors. There's a perception in the FF community that he's a dime-a-dozen scrub, but I don't know how accurate that is. He was a high pick. He has played well in limited duty. He has a versatile skill set with some plus traits. How would signing him to be the frontrunner for your starting job be any worse than using a 2nd-3rd round pick on someone like Lacy, Bell, Hyde, Hill, or Mason with the same goal?

If I'm Oakland or Jacksonville and I can get him for cheap, I'd rather let him babysit my RB spot for a couple years and use my draft picks on premium positions than draft a comparable talent in the 2nd-3rd round. I think maybe because he has been stuck behind Peterson all these years people have forgotten that when he came into the league he was regarded approximately with the same degree of optimism that guys like Hyde and Sankey are today.

Clearly he's not a Peterson/MJD/McCoy/Charles level talent. I see no clear distinction between him and the next class down though.

Ok, have not been following this thread today so have no idea what anyone had been talking about.

I still stand behind the comment I made that there was no scenario a week from now that he would rise to RB18-23 but he got closer than I thought. Depending on what they do in the draft and then training camp he has a chance to rise to that level and even exceed it but not now. At least not in my rankings and I doubt the consensus. He took a big jump today, just not that high.

That being said I might be wrong when I said if he's any teams starting it's because Plan A went wrong. He might have just been signed to be the starter but again part of depending on that taking place right now and why his value did not jump up to RB18-23, that and so many people questions if he's talented enough to handle a bigger load.

But really the only reason I'm posting this is to say good job on the call. If he ends up as highly as you touted him it won't matter if it takes until season to come to fruition and for sure his value went up big time today. If anyone took your advice and got him for what his value was a few days ago they just saw at a minimum a huge spike in his value today.

I got him for the 3.03 rookie pick on Monday morning. Haven't received any offers yet but I'd have to guess that value might move up to the 2.03 now. Definitely will see a spike in his value, and then probably another spike if/when they do not draft a RB.

I would say 2.03 is the minimum value. He is looking like a starting RB on a team without a lot of competition. That has to make him at least RB25. What kind of rookie RB will you be able to draft at 2.03? An NFL third or fourth rounder. That's a guy who won't start his rookie year and may never start or perform in fantasy. Gerhart won't have as many years of potential production because of his age, but he has a very good chance of delivering 1-2 years of starting RB value. in PPR I think the value is even more because he has a pretty good receiver and is a good enough blocker to stay in on passing downs. He is a good enough short yardage back to get the goal line opportunities. What do other people see as his rookie draft value? I would put him in the same range as Ray Rice: 1.07-2.02, but personally, I wouldn't trade him for less than a 1.12.

IF Jax passes on RBs in the draft I agree with your comments. The question is whether Jax takes a RB in the top 3 rounds. If that happens then it's a competition or a possible timeshare.

Obviously that's not impossible but with so many needs on the roster, the money they just spent on Gerhardt and with two other young RBs they like on the roster, it's probably not all that likely.

 

[Sabertooth]

Got an offer for a deal including Toby this morning.

Calvin + Toby + Tate

for

Julio + Lacy

 

[cstu]

Got an offer for a deal including Toby this morning.

Calvin + Toby + Tate

for

Julio + Lacy

Are you back from the hospital after getting your cast?