Toby Gerhart - dynasty buy? (1 Viewer)

[EBF]

Yea, good day for Gerhart owners. Would not particularly like to see them grab Seastrunk, Crowell, or Williams tomorrow, but the fact that they didn't feel compelled to spend a top 100 pick on competition is a nice little plus.

 

[Steed]

Especially the way they've been adding offense. Looks they're fully confident in Toby

 

[EBF]

Top 15 redraft back?

 

[duaneok66]

I'd say top 24.

I was wrong.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Not a dynasty buy but certainly a solid redraft option this year

 

[az_prof]

Top 15 redraft back?

I think he is a top 15 dynasty back to be honest. Here is who I like better:

1. McCoy

2. Charles

3. Foster

4. ADP

5. Forte

6. Murray

7. Lynch

8. Martin (but he now has solid competition)

9. CJ (barely...not at all sure things will work in NY)

10. Matthews

11. Spiller

12. Sankey

And after this it gets hard to pick guys above him.

 

[Brewtown]

Storm Johnson is no slouch and has the tools to be an every down back...

 

[EBF]

Not a dynasty buy but certainly a solid redraft option this year

He could be, depending on where his price settles.

Do a little thought experiment and imagine if the Jags had never signed Gerhart, but instead drafted one of Hill/Sankey/Hyde/Mason in the 2nd round. How high would that player be ranked in dynasty? I'm guessing there would be a lot of excitement. Now with Gerhart you know that his age is going to prevent you from getting much exit value down the road, but you might be looking at 2-3 years of rock solid top 10-20 numbers.

If he's still valued around RB30 on dynasty boards after the draft then I'd say he's a solid buy at that price.

 

[az_prof]

Storm Johnson is no slouch and has the tools to be an every down back...

Slow, not very athletic, and has fumbling issues. He is a backup.

 

[Bri]

Storm Johnson is no slouch and has the tools to be an every down back...

Slow, not very athletic, and has fumbling issues. He is a backup.

He won't last in the NFL if he fumbles much. I wouldn't even waste my time at this point they ought to hold onto the rock

 

[Tick]

Not a dynasty buy but certainly a solid redraft option this year

He could be, depending on where his price settles.

Do a little thought experiment and imagine if the Jags had never signed Gerhart, but instead drafted one of Hill/Sankey/Hyde/Mason in the 2nd round. How high would that player be ranked in dynasty? I'm guessing there would be a lot of excitement. Now with Gerhart you know that his age is going to prevent you from getting much exit value down the road, but you might be looking at 2-3 years of rock solid top 10-20 numbers.

If he's still valued around RB30 on dynasty boards after the draft then I'd say he's a solid buy at that price.

I own him in dynasty, but I still view this as more likely to be Chester Taylor or LaMont Jordan... things look very good for this season, but anything beyond that will just be a bonus.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Storm Johnson is no slouch and has the tools to be an every down back...

7th round rb is pretty much a slouch

 

[Brewtown]

Storm Johnson is no slouch and has the tools to be an every down back...

7th round rb is pretty much a slouch

Say what you want. He is talented and is built like an every down back...

 

[Mighty Mice]

Top 15 redraft back?

I think he is a top 15 dynasty back to be honest. Here is who I like better:

1. McCoy

2. Charles

3. Foster

4. ADP

5. Forte

6. Murray

7. Lynch

8. Martin (but he now has solid competition)

9. CJ (barely...not at all sure things will work in NY)

10. Matthews

11. Spiller

12. Sankey

And after this it gets hard to pick guys above him.

Big fan of Gerhart but would still add several above him here, like Lacy, Bell, Gio...

 

[Dacomish]

I love how Toby dropped from consideration after Storm got drafted, heck 2 of my league mates think that Toby gets moved to FB and Johnson will be the week 1 starter. One of them is planning on selecting Storm at 1.05 in a 10 team keeper league, and if he doesn't the other will shortly after. I am convinced they are both at the same house doing drugs....

 

[TheFanatic]

Top 15 redraft back?

I think he is a top 15 dynasty back to be honest. Here is who I like better:1. McCoy

2. Charles

3. Foster

4. ADP

5. Forte

6. Murray

7. Lynch

8. Martin (but he now has solid competition)

9. CJ (barely...not at all sure things will work in NY)

10. Matthews

11. Spiller

12. Sankey

And after this it gets hard to pick guys above him.

Big fan of Gerhart but would still add several above him here, like Lacy, Bell, Gio...

Gio has a lot of competition for carries from the Law Firm and the rook. That being said, I would put both Lacy and Bell on that list and take Sankey off. 5'10" and 203 but close to 4.5 40 time? No thanks. Great opportunity, but those metrics do not bode well for longevity in the NFL. Daryl Richardson 2.o

 

[jurb26]

Top 15 redraft back?

I think he is a top 15 dynasty back to be honest. Here is who I like better: 1. McCoy2. Charles3. Foster4. ADP5. Forte6. Murray7. Lynch8. Martin (but he now has solid competition)9. CJ (barely...not at all sure things will work in NY)10. Matthews11. Spiller12. Sankey And after this it gets hard to pick guys above him.

Big fan of Gerhart but would still add several above him here, like Lacy, Bell, Gio...

Gio has a lot of competition for carries from the Law Firm and the rook. That being said, I would put both Lacy and Bell on that list and take Sankey off. 5'10" and 203 but close to 4.5 40 time? No thanks. Great opportunity, but those metrics do not bode well for longevity in the NFL. Daryl Richardson 2.o

Sankey is 209, not 203. Pretty big difference there, no pun intended. Sankey absolutely belongs above Gerhart. Gerhart is looking like a solid bet in redraft. Dodged all the major bullets in the draft and a great supporting cast is being built around him.

 

[Faust]

Toby Gerhart-Michael Turner comparison not ludicrousBy Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com

New Jaguars running back Toby Gerhart compared his situation to that of Michael Turner, when Turner signed with the Falcons in 2008.

"[Turner] was behind [LaDainian Tomlinson] for so many years and got his chance to come out and show the world what he can do," Gerhart said. "That's kind of how I see it. I've shown what I can do in a limited capacity, but now it's a chance for me to shine."

Gerhart's comment seems presumptuous. Turner averaged 12 touchdowns and over 1,200 rushing yards from 2008-2012, making two Pro Bowls and helping countless owners win Fantasy titles. But the similarities are striking.

1. Turner spent four years backing up future Hall of Famer LaDainian Tomlinson. Gerhart spent four years backing up future Hall of Famer Adrian Peterson. Turner got 228 carries (57 per season) as a Chargers backup. Gerhart got 276 carries (69 per season) as a Vikings backup. Turner gained 1,257 yards as a backup, averaging 5.5 per carry. Gerhart gained 1,305 yards, averaging 4.7 per tote.

While Turner's rushing numbers were more impressive, Gerhart has the receiving edge. Gerhart caught 77 passes for 600 yards and three scores in four seasons. Turner hauled in 11 passes for 71 yards and no touchdowns.

2. Turner signed with a 4-12 team rebuilding with a rookie head coach (Mike Smith) and a rookie quarterback (Matt Ryan) drafted No. 3 overall. Gerhart signed with a 4-12 team rebuilding with a second-year head coach (Gus Bradley) and a rookie quarterback (Blake Bortles) drafted No. 3 overall.

3. Jacksonville GM Dave Caldwell worked in the Falcons' front office when they signed Turner to be their offensive centerpiece in 2008.

4. The Falcons ran the ball 54.2 percent of the time in 2008, second-highest rate in the NFL. Bradley came from the Seahawks and wants to implement their run-first, defense-oriented system. The Seahawks ran the ball an NFL-high 52.7 percent of the time last year.

5. Gerhart isn't going to get 377 carries like Turner did in 2008. But their running styles are similar. Gerhart is "an absolute bulldozer," according to Dave Richard in his Free Agency Fallout piece. "He was among the strongest, most physical runners in the NFL, able to plow through tackles and finish runs while also flashing good hands."

Bradley says 18 carries per game are feasible for Gerhart. That's 288 for the season, plus he could catch 40 balls. Jacksonville revamped its offensive line, signing free agent guard Zane Beadles and drafting a guard and center.

"When you watch plays he was involved in, he averaged 4.7 yards per carry," Caldwell said of Gerhart. "I scouted him a lot coming out of college and had a really good understanding of him. I think he can be a really good fit for us on first and second down, in pass protection and catching the ball out of the backfield."

Caldwell called Gerhart "a gifted athlete" who's smart, tough and intelligent. "You talk to anybody wherever he's been," Caldwell said. "He handles his business and raises the level of expectations of everybody around him."

6. In 2008, Turner's average draft position was 43, or mid-4th round. Gerhart is going mid-5th in early Fantasy drafts and his ADP is rising. Richard and Jamey Eisenberg both rank Gerhart 24th among RBs, with Richard projecting over 1,200 total yards and seven touchdowns.

Gerhart isn't going to duplicate Turner's monster 2008 season, when he ran for 17 touchdowns and finished second among RBs with 261 Fantasy points. But he could come closer than most think.

 

[AngryPatriot]

Also reminds me of Peyton Hillis. If this is the year he goes off, like jurb2 states, could be gold in redraft or 1 year dynasty plug in. But I don't like him long term dynasty. The Jags are better but that's not saying too much, still a totally green QB process, running struggles last year... still buyer beware. Upside RB2, downside RB 3/4.

 

[Shutout]

I really don't know which way to cast a vote in this thing because, honestly, I recognize that have some bias against Toby (don't know why but just have never given him any credit).

But in trying to be as objective as possible, I have to wonder why the Jags, who have needs on top of needs, would make a point to draft Storm Johnson in the 7th, given they have 3 rbs on the roster, instead of just wait and sign him as a UFA or do similarly with Crowell, etc.

I think they must at least like Storm enough to give him a chance if there is one to be had. My gut tells me this is a team that will attempt to run a lot and maybe they think a lot of touches across the board will be had. That won't hurt TOby as much as it will help the other guys but at the end of the day, Toby has to prove he can do this. He never has over any considerable time span in the NFL.

 

[Skeletore Eh]

I really don't know which way to cast a vote in this thing because, honestly, I recognize that have some bias against Toby (don't know why but just have never given him any credit).

But in trying to be as objective as possible, I have to wonder why the Jags, who have needs on top of needs, would make a point to draft Storm Johnson in the 7th, given they have 3 rbs on the roster, instead of just wait and sign him as a UFA or do similarly with Crowell, etc.

I think they must at least like Storm enough to give him a chance if there is one to be had. My gut tells me this is a team that will attempt to run a lot and maybe they think a lot of touches across the board will be had. That won't hurt TOby as much as it will help the other guys but at the end of the day, Toby has to prove he can do this. He never has over any considerable time span in the NFL.

first, i believe it's a common misconception that the jags have "needs on top of needs". They have a solid d and offenseive line, and addressed their needs a qb and wr in the draft.

second, i would at least hope their justification for drafting Storm would be that he was the highest ranked player on their board, and they stayed true to their board.

third, i really don't think any player should be downgraded due to their team drafting a 7th rd rb, it's just that time of year where a team drafts an rb and the knee jerk reaction is to downgrade the incumbent

 

[az_prof]

I really don't know which way to cast a vote in this thing because, honestly, I recognize that have some bias against Toby (don't know why but just have never given him any credit).

But in trying to be as objective as possible, I have to wonder why the Jags, who have needs on top of needs, would make a point to draft Storm Johnson in the 7th, given they have 3 rbs on the roster, instead of just wait and sign him as a UFA or do similarly with Crowell, etc.

I think they must at least like Storm enough to give him a chance if there is one to be had. My gut tells me this is a team that will attempt to run a lot and maybe they think a lot of touches across the board will be had. That won't hurt TOby as much as it will help the other guys but at the end of the day, Toby has to prove he can do this. He never has over any considerable time span in the NFL.

It could be that Toby doesn't come close to Turner although I think this article makes a pretty good case for him coming closer than most think. But long term, if you think Jax drafting of Storm is a threat, well, the odd are strongly against you.

Since 2000, 56 RBs have been drafted in the 7th round. Do you know how many have had even one season of over 1000 yards? Two. Two out of 56 had value. Derrick Ward had one season, and it was his fifth in the league. And Ahmad Bradshaw had two. The next best seventh round picks is probably Justin Forsett.

I know the haters will hate, but Storm was taken for depth. If the team really had questions about Toby they would have taken a player in the second or third round, fourth round at the latest.

 

[EBF]

Also reminds me of Peyton Hillis. If this is the year he goes off, like jurb2 states, could be gold in redraft or 1 year dynasty plug in. But I don't like him long term dynasty. The Jags are better but that's not saying too much, still a totally green QB process, running struggles last year... still buyer beware. Upside RB2, downside RB 3/4.

I don't think he's as good as Michael Turner, but I think he's better than Hillis. Hillis was basically a FB playing RB. Toby is a more conventional back. Pretty decent athlete. 231 pounds, 31.3 BMI, 4.50 40, 38" vertical, and 6.94 three cone. Only thing he's really missing is a good broad jump. His 9'10" is disappointing, but not terrible. He can catch the ball too. What stands out to me most about his NFL highlights is his speed to the hole for a big back. He's not that nifty in the second level, but he hits the crease in a hurry. He may bust more long runs than people anticipate for this reason. I pointed it out earlier, but over the course of his NFL career he has actually been quite good at breaking long runs. He may be a little more dynamic than people expect with his touches.

Add in the receiving ability and the lack of scary competition for touches and RB1 status is not out of the question. Look no further than what guys like Trent Richardson (2012) and LeVeon Bell (2013) did in FF the last couple years. He might not catch that many passes, but he'll likely have a higher YPC.

I really don't know which way to cast a vote in this thing because, honestly, I recognize that have some bias against Toby (don't know why but just have never given him any credit).

I think a lot of the paranoia, skepticism, and fear makes sense if you're operating under the belief that he's not very good. So far most of the data points have contradicted that though. The Jags signed him to be their starter for decent money. They didn't draft anyone of real note. All of this suggests that they view him as a guy who is capable of carrying the load, even if only for a year or two.

I'm not that worried about Storm Johnson. 7th round pick. Inferior physical tools. He's 22 pounds lighter, yet still has a slower 40 time, a lower vertical, and an identical broad jump. He's a skinny 209 pound back with mid 4.5 speed. If you knew with 100% certainty going into the draft that the Jags were going to take a RB, I think you'd be thrilled that it was Johnson. He's probably one of the least threatening backs selected this year. Low draft slot. Inferior college career. Unspectacular physical tools. Seems to have "backup" written all over him. The idea that he's some kind of sneaky "value" pick is rooted in the idea that Gerhart is a highly beatable scrub, which IMO has been wrong all along. I'm a Gerhart owner in a few leagues and I've already had some people try to hit me up for Todman/Storm. IMO those guys have zero value unless Gerhart gets hurt.

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Jaguars OC Jedd Fisch referred to seventh-rounder Storm Johnson as "a great value pick for us."
Fisch said he "didn't know the explanation" for why Johnson slipped to round seven, but did acknowledge the UCF product "needs to work on his ball security" after fumbling eight times in two college seasons. Johnson also must get better in pass protection. When OTAs begin, Johnson will compete with Jordan Todman and Denard Robinson behind new Jaguars feature back Toby Gerhart.

Source: Florida Times Union

 

[kutta]

Are we not allowed to say that we don't think Toby will be successful because he's white? It seems OK to talk about BMI (guys that weigh x don't succeed at RB) or speed (guys that run y in the 40 don't succeed), or stats (guys who average z yards per carry on one team don't succeed on another), but if we bring up race (white guys don't succeed at RB), we get chastised.

Well, Toby's measurables may look good, he may have a good history, but I'm going to say he will not succeed because of his race. He will not be a top 15 RB this year (and he may get close by sheer volume), and he will not be starting the following year.

It is just so rare to see a good, starting white RB that I can't believe it until I see it. If I miss out, so be it.

 

[saintfool]

um, no.

 

[rdrouyn]

what about an albino black guy? would he be a good RB?

 

[kutta]

what about an albino black guy? would he be a good RB?

Yes

 

[Avery]

Are we not allowed to say that we don't think Toby will be successful because he's white? It seems OK to talk about BMI (guys that weigh x don't succeed at RB) or speed (guys that run y in the 40 don't succeed), or stats (guys who average z yards per carry on one team don't succeed on another), but if we bring up race (white guys don't succeed at RB), we get chastised.

Well, Toby's measurables may look good, he may have a good history, but I'm going to say he will not succeed because of his race. He will not be a top 15 RB this year (and he may get close by sheer volume), and he will not be starting the following year.

It is just so rare to see a good, starting white RB that I can't believe it until I see it. If I miss out, so be it.

While we're picking random things to point to that have no bearing on his performance to determine the likelihood of his future success, I can't think of any Hall of Fame running back named "Toby". Perhaps he should change his name to "Tony"... then he'd have a chance...

 

[kutta]

Are we not allowed to say that we don't think Toby will be successful because he's white? It seems OK to talk about BMI (guys that weigh x don't succeed at RB) or speed (guys that run y in the 40 don't succeed), or stats (guys who average z yards per carry on one team don't succeed on another), but if we bring up race (white guys don't succeed at RB), we get chastised.

Well, Toby's measurables may look good, he may have a good history, but I'm going to say he will not succeed because of his race. He will not be a top 15 RB this year (and he may get close by sheer volume), and he will not be starting the following year.

It is just so rare to see a good, starting white RB that I can't believe it until I see it. If I miss out, so be it.

While we're picking random things to point to that have no bearing on his performance to determine the likelihood of his future success, I can't think of any Hall of Fame running back named "Toby". Perhaps he should change his name to "Tony"... then he'd have a chance...

Why do you think there are no starting white RBs or cornerbacks in the NFL? Random chance?

 

[Stealthycat]

It is just so rare to see a good, starting white RB that I can't believe it until I see it

racist

If I said " It is just so rare to see a good, starting black QB that I can't believe it until I see it " - I'd be called a racist .... its got to be called both ways.

 

[John 14:6]

Are we not allowed to say that we don't think Toby will be successful because he's white? It seems OK to talk about BMI (guys that weigh x don't succeed at RB) or speed (guys that run y in the 40 don't succeed), or stats (guys who average z yards per carry on one team don't succeed on another), but if we bring up race (white guys don't succeed at RB), we get chastised.

Well, Toby's measurables may look good, he may have a good history, but I'm going to say he will not succeed because of his race. He will not be a top 15 RB this year (and he may get close by sheer volume), and he will not be starting the following year.

It is just so rare to see a good, starting white RB that I can't believe it until I see it. If I miss out, so be it.

While we're picking random things to point to that have no bearing on his performance to determine the likelihood of his future success, I can't think of any Hall of Fame running back named "Toby". Perhaps he should change his name to "Tony"... then he'd have a chance...

Why do you think there are no starting white RBs or cornerbacks in the NFL? Random chance?

Because Jason Sehorn retired?

Some anonymous NFL owner said the same thing about redheaded QBs when asked if he would draft Andy Dalton a few years back... (sorry, no link, it was a Yahoo article)

 

[kutta]

It is just so rare to see a good, starting white RB that I can't believe it until I see it

racist

If I said " It is just so rare to see a good, starting black QB that I can't believe it until I see it " - I'd be called a racist .... its got to be called both ways.

Well there's a big difference between the two. Blacks never had a chance at QB. Once they got their chance, they proved that people were wrong. Are you saying white's never had a chance to play RB or conerback? Please clarify.

 

[kutta]

Are we not allowed to say that we don't think Toby will be successful because he's white? It seems OK to talk about BMI (guys that weigh x don't succeed at RB) or speed (guys that run y in the 40 don't succeed), or stats (guys who average z yards per carry on one team don't succeed on another), but if we bring up race (white guys don't succeed at RB), we get chastised.

Well, Toby's measurables may look good, he may have a good history, but I'm going to say he will not succeed because of his race. He will not be a top 15 RB this year (and he may get close by sheer volume), and he will not be starting the following year.

It is just so rare to see a good, starting white RB that I can't believe it until I see it. If I miss out, so be it.

While we're picking random things to point to that have no bearing on his performance to determine the likelihood of his future success, I can't think of any Hall of Fame running back named "Toby". Perhaps he should change his name to "Tony"... then he'd have a chance...

Why do you think there are no starting white RBs or cornerbacks in the NFL? Random chance?

Because Jason Sehorn retired?

Some anonymous NFL owner said the same thing about redheaded QBs when asked if he would draft Andy Dalton a few years back... (sorry, no link, it was a Yahoo article)

So in last 20 years or so, with 32 NFL teams and at least 3 cornerbacks on each team for a total of 96 cornerbacks per year for 20 years for a total of 1,920 "cornerback years," we've had one white guy who played a few years at the position. There have been zero white CB's in the past 10 years. Give or take a few years or a few CB's, that's a pretty poor track record for white CB's.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

It is just so rare to see a good, starting white RB that I can't believe it until I see it

racist

If I said " It is just so rare to see a good, starting black QB that I can't believe it until I see it " - I'd be called a racist .... its got to be called both ways.

Thanks for sticking up for us white guys - some one has to do it.

 

[Leroy's Aces]

Read the book, "The Sports Gene: Inside the Science of Extraordinary Athletic Performance"

David Epstein. Genetics have a massive part to do with the baseline level of athleticism and overall body type an athlete starts with. How many European (read: white) people have a quick-twitch, mesomorphic (naturally muscular with low body fat) body type vs people of African descent? Not surprisingly, having this body type lends itself to success in the NFL.

 

[EBF]

It doesn't matter if you're white, brown, blue, or purple as long as you have the right athletic parts. I agree that it's rare to see the right parts for a RB/CB in a white athlete, but it can and will happen. I think Gerhart is a good example. He's 6'0 231 with 4.50 speed, a 38" vertical, and a 6.94 three cone time. By NFL standards, he's not a GREAT athlete. But he's a pretty good one. His workout numbers absolutely blow away those by LeVeon Bell, Eddie Lacy, Carlos Hyde, and Jeremy Hill.

If you're going to say he can't be successful, you're going to have to find a better argument than, "His skin is white."

 

[buck naked]

Read the book, "The Sports Gene: Inside the Science of Extraordinary Athletic Performance"

David Epstein. Genetics have a massive part to do with the baseline level of athleticism and overall body type an athlete starts with. How many European (read: white) people have a quick-twitch, mesomorphic (naturally muscular with low body fat) body type vs people of African descent? Not surprisingly, having this body type lends itself to success in the NFL.

Interesting. My guess is that "David Epstein" did not come from Africa, so he is better at writing that dunking a basketball.

 

[Avery]

Are we not allowed to say that we don't think Toby will be successful because he's white? It seems OK to talk about BMI (guys that weigh x don't succeed at RB) or speed (guys that run y in the 40 don't succeed), or stats (guys who average z yards per carry on one team don't succeed on another), but if we bring up race (white guys don't succeed at RB), we get chastised.

Well, Toby's measurables may look good, he may have a good history, but I'm going to say he will not succeed because of his race. He will not be a top 15 RB this year (and he may get close by sheer volume), and he will not be starting the following year.

It is just so rare to see a good, starting white RB that I can't believe it until I see it. If I miss out, so be it.

While we're picking random things to point to that have no bearing on his performance to determine the likelihood of his future success, I can't think of any Hall of Fame running back named "Toby". Perhaps he should change his name to "Tony"... then he'd have a chance...

Why do you think there are no starting white RBs or cornerbacks in the NFL? Random chance?

... and why do you think there are no Hall of Fame RBs named "Toby". Random?!? In fact, I can't think of any NFL RBs named "Toby" other then Gerhart. He's clearly ill suited to play in the NFL.

Come to think of it, I don't think Gerhart has tattoos either. Now, most current successful NFL RBs currently do have tattoos so he's definitely going against the odds of trying to succeed without tattoos because tattoos now equals success.

Now if that sounds silly, that's because it is... I'll leave it to you to draw the line between that and what you're talking about.

Edit to add: Now if you want to get into a socioeconomic discussion and sports vs. other viable economic and education opportunities and the correlation (not causation) of afro-americans in that regard, that may be a little more illustrative.

 

[kutta]

Are we not allowed to say that we don't think Toby will be successful because he's white? It seems OK to talk about BMI (guys that weigh x don't succeed at RB) or speed (guys that run y in the 40 don't succeed), or stats (guys who average z yards per carry on one team don't succeed on another), but if we bring up race (white guys don't succeed at RB), we get chastised.

Well, Toby's measurables may look good, he may have a good history, but I'm going to say he will not succeed because of his race. He will not be a top 15 RB this year (and he may get close by sheer volume), and he will not be starting the following year.

It is just so rare to see a good, starting white RB that I can't believe it until I see it. If I miss out, so be it.

While we're picking random things to point to that have no bearing on his performance to determine the likelihood of his future success, I can't think of any Hall of Fame running back named "Toby". Perhaps he should change his name to "Tony"... then he'd have a chance...

Why do you think there are no starting white RBs or cornerbacks in the NFL? Random chance?

... and why do you think there are no Hall of Fame RBs named "Toby". Random?!? In fact, I can't think of any NFL RBs named "Toby" other then Gerhart. He's clearly ill suited to play in the NFL.Come to think of it, I don't think Gerhart has tattoos either. Now, most current successful NFL RBs currently do have tattoos so he's definitely going against the odds of trying to succeed without tattoos because tattoos now equals success.

Now if that sounds silly, that's because it is... I'll leave it to you to draw the line between that and what you're talking about.

Edit to add: Now if you want to get into a socioeconomic discussion and sports vs. other viable economic and education opportunities and the correlation (not causation) of afro-americans in that regard, that may be a little more illustrative.

Ok

 

[Noah Davis]

Are we not allowed to say that we don't think Toby will be successful because he's white? It seems OK to talk about BMI (guys that weigh x don't succeed at RB) or speed (guys that run y in the 40 don't succeed), or stats (guys who average z yards per carry on one team don't succeed on another), but if we bring up race (white guys don't succeed at RB), we get chastised.

Well, Toby's measurables may look good, he may have a good history, but I'm going to say he will not succeed because of his race. He will not be a top 15 RB this year (and he may get close by sheer volume), and he will not be starting the following year.

It is just so rare to see a good, starting white RB that I can't believe it until I see it. If I miss out, so be it.

While we're picking random things to point to that have no bearing on his performance to determine the likelihood of his future success, I can't think of any Hall of Fame running back named "Toby". Perhaps he should change his name to "Tony"... then he'd have a chance...

Why do you think there are no starting white RBs or cornerbacks in the NFL? Random chance?

... and why do you think there are no Hall of Fame RBs named "Toby". Random?!? In fact, I can't think of any NFL RBs named "Toby" other then Gerhart. He's clearly ill suited to play in the NFL.

Come to think of it, I don't think Gerhart has tattoos either. Now, most current successful NFL RBs currently do have tattoos so he's definitely going against the odds of trying to succeed without tattoos because tattoos now equals success.

Now if that sounds silly, that's because it is... I'll leave it to you to draw the line between that and what you're talking about.

Edit to add: Now if you want to get into a socioeconomic discussion and sports vs. other viable economic and education opportunities and the correlation (not causation) of afro-americans in that regard, that may be a little more illustrative.

My Name's Toby

 

[cdubz]

Read the book, "The Sports Gene: Inside the Science of Extraordinary Athletic Performance"

David Epstein. Genetics have a massive part to do with the baseline level of athleticism and overall body type an athlete starts with. How many European (read: white) people have a quick-twitch, mesomorphic (naturally muscular with low body fat) body type vs people of African descent? Not surprisingly, having this body type lends itself to success in the NFL.

IMO this would explain the rate of players getting to the NFL, but are you taking the position that this can be extended to players such as Gerhart that he won't perform as well as a result?

 

[kutta]

Read the book, "The Sports Gene: Inside the Science of Extraordinary Athletic Performance"

David Epstein. Genetics have a massive part to do with the baseline level of athleticism and overall body type an athlete starts with. How many European (read: white) people have a quick-twitch, mesomorphic (naturally muscular with low body fat) body type vs people of African descent? Not surprisingly, having this body type lends itself to success in the NFL.

IMO this would explain the rate of players getting to the NFL, but are you taking the position that this can be extended to players such as Gerhart that he won't perform as well as a result?

I don't think that body type matters much for QBs and linemen. It matters a ton for CB's and RB's.

 

[EBF]

The problem with that argument is that he's already shown the athletic traits on par with the typical NFL player at his position.

I mean if there was a white CB who ran a 4.3, had a 40" vertical, and was a lockdown corner in college, would you say he was doomed to fail?

The idea that almost no white guys have NFL caliber RB athletic ability makes sense. The idea that a white guy who has already shown NFL caliber RB athletic ability can't succeed because of his skin color is just silly.

 

[cdubz]

Read the book, "The Sports Gene: Inside the Science of Extraordinary Athletic Performance"

David Epstein. Genetics have a massive part to do with the baseline level of athleticism and overall body type an athlete starts with. How many European (read: white) people have a quick-twitch, mesomorphic (naturally muscular with low body fat) body type vs people of African descent? Not surprisingly, having this body type lends itself to success in the NFL.

IMO this would explain the rate of players getting to the NFL, but are you taking the position that this can be extended to players such as Gerhart that he won't perform as well as a result?

I don't think that body type matters much for QBs and linemen. It matters a ton for CB's and RB's.

So given your prior comments, I am assuming that is a yes. If body type mattered so much, why didn't he get weeded out before the NFL? Why would an NFL team spend a 2nd on him when they already had the best RB in football if they didn't think his body type would be sufficient for the NFL?

 

[steveski]

Read the book, "The Sports Gene: Inside the Science of Extraordinary Athletic Performance"

David Epstein. Genetics have a massive part to do with the baseline level of athleticism and overall body type an athlete starts with. How many European (read: white) people have a quick-twitch, mesomorphic (naturally muscular with low body fat) body type vs people of African descent? Not surprisingly, having this body type lends itself to success in the NFL.

IMO this would explain the rate of players getting to the NFL, but are you taking the position that this can be extended to players such as Gerhart that he won't perform as well as a result?

I don't think that body type matters much for QBs and linemen. It matters a ton for CB's and RB's.

So given your prior comments, I am assuming that is a yes. If body type mattered so much, why didn't he get weeded out before the NFL? Why would an NFL team spend a 2nd on him when they already had the best RB in football if they didn't think his body type would be sufficient for the NFL?

Because he's racist.

I'd agree with a statement that black people tend to have more athletic body types than white people and that would make sense why there are more black NFL players at skill positions than there are white players. That's genetics and it's a fact. But he's saying that a white guy with the same athleticism and measurable's as a black guy won't succeed and the black guy will. There's a big difference there.

 

[kutta]

Read the book, "The Sports Gene: Inside the Science of Extraordinary Athletic Performance"

David Epstein. Genetics have a massive part to do with the baseline level of athleticism and overall body type an athlete starts with. How many European (read: white) people have a quick-twitch, mesomorphic (naturally muscular with low body fat) body type vs people of African descent? Not surprisingly, having this body type lends itself to success in the NFL.

IMO this would explain the rate of players getting to the NFL, but are you taking the position that this can be extended to players such as Gerhart that he won't perform as well as a result?

I don't think that body type matters much for QBs and linemen. It matters a ton for CB's and RB's.

So given your prior comments, I am assuming that is a yes. If body type mattered so much, why didn't he get weeded out before the NFL? Why would an NFL team spend a 2nd on him when they already had the best RB in football if they didn't think his body type would be sufficient for the NFL?

Because he's racist.

I'd agree with a statement that black people tend to have more athletic body types than white people and that would make sense why there are more black NFL players at skill positions than there are white players. That's genetics and it's a fact. But he's saying that a white guy with the same athleticism and measurable's as a black guy won't succeed and the black guy will. There's a big difference there.

The same athleticism? Try again, Sparky.

 

[kutta]

The problem with that argument is that he's already shown the athletic traits on par with the typical NFL player at his position.

I mean if there was a white CB who ran a 4.3, had a 40" vertical, and was a lockdown corner in college, would you say he was doomed to fail?

The idea that almost no white guys have NFL caliber RB athletic ability makes sense. The idea that a white guy who has already shown NFL caliber RB athletic ability can't succeed because of his skin color is just silly.

We'll see. With all these great measurables, what will you say if/when he fails? Do you think maybe there's more to athleticism than 40 times and cone drills?

 

[steveski]

The problem with that argument is that he's already shown the athletic traits on par with the typical NFL player at his position.

I mean if there was a white CB who ran a 4.3, had a 40" vertical, and was a lockdown corner in college, would you say he was doomed to fail?

The idea that almost no white guys have NFL caliber RB athletic ability makes sense. The idea that a white guy who has already shown NFL caliber RB athletic ability can't succeed because of his skin color is just silly.

We'll see. With all these great measurables, what will you say if/when he fails? Do you think maybe there's more to athleticism than 40 times and cone drills?

There are many RB's that were bigger physical freaks than him that have failed. Everything that he's accomplished in his life up to this point is a testament to his ability and athleticism.

He was drafted earlier than any RB in the draft this year. I know teams value positions a little differently now, but it still says something.

The real question is how many people like you he's had to overcome throughout his whole career to prove he's talented enough?

 

[EBF]

We'll see. With all these great measurables, what will you say if/when he fails? Do you think maybe there's more to athleticism than 40 times and cone drills?

Yes, absolutely. I'd like to hear some specific athletic qualities that you think he lacks to be successful. So far all you've cited is his skin color.

Nobody is saying he's going to dominate. I think as far as NFL starters go he's probably just average or maybe even below average. So I'm not expecting him to go out and rush for 1500 yards on 5 YPC. He will most likely be within a few ticks of solid, either slightly better or slightly worse than that.

He's definitely the best white RB I've ever seen. Never seen another with his combination of lower body strength, speed, and hip flexibility. 38" vertical and 4.50 speed at 231 pounds are no joke. The hip flexibility is what's rare in a white guy. There's probably a stereotype of Toby as a plodding power back. He's never going to be LaDainian Tomlinson or Marshall Faulk with his footwork, but he has a surprising ability to plant and drive for a big man. Check out there run here at 0:59:

http://youtu.be/gloWezAPp5w?t=59s

That low POV gives you a good idea for his quick feet and lateral bounce. He is way more mobile than people think. Especially behind the LOS and in the first 5-10 yards. Once he hits full speed, he has pretty limited cutback ability. But you can see that he's really light on his feet for a thumper.

Maybe the most ironic part of this discussion is that he's already shown he can play well in the NFL. When given opportunities, he has achieved a level of production that would make any FF owner pretty happy. The only question is whether he can do it as the man over a full 16 game schedule.

Quoting my own post from this thread:

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=698621&page=2#entry16605217

On the balance, he has a career YPC average of 4.7 on 276 carries. He has 9 carries of 20+ yards, which equates to a "big run" percentage of 3.26%.

For the sake of comparison, here are the 2013 averages for last year's 200+ carry backs:

CJ Spiller - 4.48%

DeMarco Murray - 3.69%

Alfred Morris - 3.62%

Frank Gore - 3.26%

Matt Forte - 3.11%

DeAngelo Williams - 2.99%

LeSean McCoy - 2.87%

Adrian Peterson - 2.87%

Reggie Bush - 2.69%

Ryan Mathews - 2.46%

Jamaal Charles - 2.32%

Chris Johnson - 2.15%

Maurice Jones-Drew - 2.14%

Knowshon Moreno - 2.07%

Zac Stacy - 2.00%

Marshawn Lynch - 1.99%

LeVeon Bell - 1.64%

Eddie Lacy - 1.05%

Fred Jackson - 0.48%

Ray Rice - 0.47%

Rashard Mendenhall - 0.46%

BenJarvus Green-Ellis - 0.45%

I'm not going to suggest that this stat is the perfect indicator of RB performance. It's highly prone to variance and it only speaks about a back's big play ability, not his consistency grinding out short gains. I think you'd also expect a backup/COOP back to have a higher big play percentage than a workhorse who's carrying the ball 200+ times if all other variables were equal. However, there does seem to be some correlation between these numbers and talent. The fact that Gerhart has been breaking long runs at a rate that's equal to or greater than most of the backs in the game is another positive sign for him.