Right now I think it breaks down something like this:
First round RBs
Darren McFadden
Jonathan Stewart
Rashard Mendenhall
These are the clear top three and the only backs in the draft who are locks for the first round, IMO. I don't think the gap between McFadden and the other two is as big as conventional wisdom would lead one to believe. In fact, there are some reasons to think the other guys might make a better transition to the NFL than McFadden. The 1.01 isn't a slam dunk like it was with Peterson and Bush.
2nd-3rd round RBs
Steve Slaton
Felix Jones
Ray Rice
Dantrell Savage
Mike Hart
These players all have a good chance of going on the first day of the draft, but most of them have at least one significant wart. The combine will be huge for Ray Rice and Mike Hart. Both guys are stars at the college level, but they'll have to prove they have the physical ability needed to make the transition.
4th-7th round RBs
Ryan Torain
Tashard Choice
James Davis
Yvenson Bernard
Allen Patrick
Productive backs whose lack of elite physical gifts will probably keep them out of the first day. Torain would go higher if he hadn't suffered a serious foot injury that will keep him out of the pre-draft process. Choice seems like a Leon Washington type. Decent skills, but nothing to get too excited about. I see him as a 3rd-4th rounder right now.
In spite of the hype it's shaping up to be a pretty average class. McFadden, Stewart, and Mendenhall are the only guys who look like locks to become starters in the NFL. Slaton could also join that group. And we'll probably get 1-2 more decent backs from the rest of the class. So really I think we're looking at 4-7 guys who should eventually hold significant FF value.
First off, ever since I saw Mendenhall rip up my Nittany Lions a month ago, I've really been following him. I think he's the best all around RB in the draft. With that, Im surprised you're already declaring him a first rounder. I was thinking he'd go somewhere late 2nd-mid 3rd, but I agree with your assessment of talent and potential. Are NFL teams seeing/know this though? Not sure2nd, I think James Davis will turn out to be pretty damn solid. Quite honestly, I'd rather my team take him than RBush-lite Slaton
3rd, Isn't 4-7 FF RB's in 1 class pretty good? Id say so. I guess it depends on how good those Top 3 turn out as starters, if its the high mark of 7 or on the other hand 4, and who breaks out as a later draft pick, but avg that out to 5-6 guys seems like a good amount for 1 class. ----ETA: Don't know about the hype, but I think this WR class is where its at as far as skill positions go. Crrrazy talent at WR, esp if a lot of the JR's declare, which I think many will.
Overall though, I think what you're saying is on point
PS: F**K the Buckeyes. I can't wait to see them get blownout by LSU, Oregon, Oklahoma, or whoever they play in the championship,. because Mendy's Illini and the Michigan Tangerines aren't stopping them. *&!@$&@^$*@@$%
Ray Rice sure looks like a first-rounder to me.
