Tom Brady dropping in FBG rankings (1 Viewer)

[steveski]

FBG had Brady as the #2 QB for a while now, which I was on board with, but it looks like either yesterday or today they downgraded him to below Brees. Is it one of those things where on paper it looks like Brady should have a much better year than Brees, but when it came to seeing preseason action, it looked a lot different?

I almost feel like it's not the Rodgers/Brady/Brees tier anymore and Rodgers is on his own tier with the all the questions with the Patriots O-line and Brees without his head coach. I've had it in my head for a while that taking Brady over the 2nd tier of RB's (McFadden, CJ2K, Forte) might make more sense because of reliability, but now I'm not so sure.

What do you guys think? Does the way the preseason went for Brady and the Patriots affect Brady's draft position on your list as much as it did the FBG list? Is Brady still a "sure thing" in your opinion?

 

[cheese]

I think it has a very, very small impact on where Brady goes, but more than 0.

It is important to note when talking about "FBG dropped Brady" that you are looking at Dodds' rankings specifically. He noted on his twitter that he made some recent adjustments. In fact, the other 3 all still have Brady>Brees and (hopefully not giving away too much subs content here) 1 of them even has some others above Brees as well.

I think you make an interesting point about Rodgers. I think I still have it as a top tier of 3, but at this point I think Rodgers has to be ranked 1st in that tier pretty much no matter how high you are on the others this year.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

Smart move. People act like he's inhuman. He's not. That line blows and if he gets sacked more than the 32 times he was last year he might miss games. And the OL is far worse than last year. I think people are in for a shock vis a vis Brady. Not predicting his demise, but wouldn't surprise me one bit to see I'm fall to qb5 territory. And I went to Michigan and love brady. But I'd certainly take brees over him and probably Stafford and newton too.

 

[steveski]

I also don't like getting into predicting injuries, but between him getting hit a lot and the incident after the last time they lost to the Giants in the super bowl...scary thought.

 

[Tanner9919]

Smart move. People act like he's inhuman. He's not. That line blows and if he gets sacked more than the 32 times he was last year he might miss games. And the OL is far worse than last year. I think people are in for a shock vis a vis Brady. Not predicting his demise, but wouldn't surprise me one bit to see I'm fall to qb5 territory. And I went to Michigan and love brady. But I'd certainly take brees over him and probably Stafford and newton too.

this is one of ,if not the best, postings about NE that we've seen to date.. the pink elephant in the middle of the room is the NE o-line ..

others have said the o-line *should* be 'fine', and use terms like IF this guy comes back,and IF that guy comes back healthy, the NE offense will be a machine..

my questions is this: why is it that we all talk about red flags in regards to other situations or other players like Bradshaw, Vick, etc, but with NE, everyone downplays everything and paints this rosey picture, waxing poetic about Brady and 5000/50 for 2012 season, as one guy predicted..( actually,he said 55 TDs , which is ..it's like hitting Ludicrous Speed in the movie Space Balls)

Brady has been getting the snot knocked out of him in preseason..2 fumbles..hard hits, one directly on the knee..

he's 35..we know Rb's breakdown at 31 or so..WR's around the same time.whats the age that Qb's fall apart?

whatever it is, he's quickly approaching that age..

 

[David Yudkin]

I am in the minority but think overall the OL is a case of much ado about nothing. The Pats have 3 guys just coming back from injuries that are out of football shape and need practice playing together. I also expect Waters to come back next week. Then the only difference in the OL will be the retirement of Matt Light. None of these guys are expected to have any ill effects from their injuries. In prior preseason, Brady got the snot kicked out of him too, but no one remembers that. worst case, Gronkowski will stay in to block more or they keep a back in for blitz pick up to start the year.

It's a rosier picture in NE because they will have all their guys on the field. There are players in PIT or PHI that WE KNOW will not play this year. Big difference. Also, the Pats have been able to plug and play and improve as the year goes on with the players they have had available each year. They will figure it out.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

typical over-reaction to pre-season. there is no game planning there is little to no in game adjustments.

 

[FDC]

typical over-reaction to pre-season. there is no game planning there is little to no in game adjustments.

I find this hard to believe in this instance. Brady and Bill are going to do what they have to to keep Brady safe.

 

[ponchsox]

I am in the minority but think overall the OL is a case of much ado about nothing. The Pats have 3 guys just coming back from injuries that are out of football shape and need practice playing together. I also expect Waters to come back next week. Then the only difference in the OL will be the retirement of Matt Light. None of these guys are expected to have any ill effects from their injuries. In prior preseason, Brady got the snot kicked out of him too, but no one remembers that. worst case, Gronkowski will stay in to block more or they keep a back in for blitz pick up to start the year. It's a rosier picture in NE because they will have all their guys on the field. There are players in PIT or PHI that WE KNOW will not play this year. Big difference. Also, the Pats have been able to plug and play and improve as the year goes on with the players they have had available each year. They will figure it out.

Agreed with Yudkin. When the line plays together for a few games they will be fine. They may not have the best OL but I don't think they will blow either. They will develop plays and formations to utilize what the line gives them.

 

[Shutout]

Smart move. People act like he's inhuman. He's not. That line blows and if he gets sacked more than the 32 times he was last year he might miss games. And the OL is far worse than last year. I think people are in for a shock vis a vis Brady. Not predicting his demise, but wouldn't surprise me one bit to see I'm fall to qb5 territory. And I went to Michigan and love brady. But I'd certainly take brees over him and probably Stafford and newton too.

this is one of ,if not the best, postings about NE that we've seen to date.. the pink elephant in the middle of the room is the NE o-line ..

others have said the o-line *should* be 'fine', and use terms like IF this guy comes back,and IF that guy comes back healthy, the NE offense will be a machine..

my questions is this: why is it that we all talk about red flags in regards to other situations or other players like Bradshaw, Vick, etc, but with NE, everyone downplays everything and paints this rosey picture, waxing poetic about Brady and 5000/50 for 2012 season, as one guy predicted..( actually,he said 55 TDs , which is ..it's like hitting Ludicrous Speed in the movie Space Balls)

Brady has been getting the snot knocked out of him in preseason..2 fumbles..hard hits, one directly on the knee..

he's 35..we know Rb's breakdown at 31 or so..WR's around the same time.whats the age that Qb's fall apart?

whatever it is, he's quickly approaching that age..

probably because there is a long history to study that indicates that, year in and year out, this is one of the top 5 QBs we will ever see and that the Patriots, as an organization, rarely fall apart or into a slump. When you compare the patriots to Vick or Bradshaw or Dmac or one of those guys, you're making vastly different comparisons because all those people have histories OF getting injured, etc.

 

[Shutout]

typical over-reaction to pre-season. there is no game planning there is little to no in game adjustments.

Agree. Too many people watch these pre-season games and think the NFL is putting on a show specifically so we can evaluate our fantasy football players before our drafts...They're not! They are preparing to play real-life football and have their own agenda which the vast majority of the times does NOT include working on a specific thing with key starters. The Patriots (and the other teams) already know what they have in their starters. They are working with lots of various people in multiple situations and, as a team that really likes people who can perform in multiple roles, it makes sense that the Patriots never particularly look like world beaters in the pre-season because they are probably being a ittle bit more experimental that most teams.i'm sure at the end of the day in Week1, the Pats will go down to Tennessee and you'll see a lot of familiar names as the weekly leaders.

 

[TheFootballJesus]

I am in the minority but think overall the OL is a case of much ado about nothing. The Pats have 3 guys just coming back from injuries that are out of football shape and need practice playing together. I also expect Waters to come back next week. Then the only difference in the OL will be the retirement of Matt Light. None of these guys are expected to have any ill effects from their injuries. In prior preseason, Brady got the snot kicked out of him too, but no one remembers that. worst case, Gronkowski will stay in to block more or they keep a back in for blitz pick up to start the year. It's a rosier picture in NE because they will have all their guys on the field. There are players in PIT or PHI that WE KNOW will not play this year. Big difference. Also, the Pats have been able to plug and play and improve as the year goes on with the players they have had available each year. They will figure it out.

Even in the event that the offensive line struggles, they could use Gronkowski to pass block occasionally. Everyone knows about how great he is in the red zone, but he's a terrific blocker as well. You might think "hey why would the patriots keep a huge threat in the passing game in to block" but when you've got Lloyd, Hernandez, and Welker, I think you can afford to.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

typical over-reaction to pre-season. there is no game planning there is little to no in game adjustments.

I find this hard to believe in this instance. Brady and Bill are going to do what they have to to keep Brady safe.

yeah its called not even seeing the field in weeks2 and weeks4 of the pre-season.

 

[steveski]

typical over-reaction to pre-season. there is no game planning there is little to no in game adjustments.

Agree. Too many people watch these pre-season games and think the NFL is putting on a show specifically so we can evaluate our fantasy football players before our drafts...They're not! They are preparing to play real-life football and have their own agenda which the vast majority of the times does NOT include working on a specific thing with key starters. The Patriots (and the other teams) already know what they have in their starters. They are working with lots of various people in multiple situations and, as a team that really likes people who can perform in multiple roles, it makes sense that the Patriots never particularly look like world beaters in the pre-season because they are probably being a ittle bit more experimental that most teams.i'm sure at the end of the day in Week1, the Pats will go down to Tennessee and you'll see a lot of familiar names as the weekly leaders.

While I agree that the preseason is just the preseason and they aren't trying to pull any tricks or even showcase their starters, I'm pretty sure they don't want Brady getting hit like he has been. I wouldn't care if Brady looked more inaccurate than usual or his timing was off, that's stuff that doesn't really matter to me with seasoned veterans. What does matter is Brady getting hit. That's out of his control. A QB that spends a lot of time on the ground is one that will not feel comfortable in the pocket.

 

[RIM]

Doesn't Brady have a relatively tough schedule this season? (and much tougher than 2011's was)

does this impact anyone's thinking? or is Brady and NE so good that the tough Defenses vs the pass have no impact? (and i realize it is difficult to project how good a defense is from year to year, but we can try)

I was looking at Clayton Gray's Strength of Schedule i think (defenses based on fantasy points given up).

EDIT:

nope, it was Chase Stuart's 'QB by Committee' article that mentioned Brady's tough schedule.

"...On the other hand, Tom Brady has the hardest schedule in the league – by far. In addition to four games against the Jets, Ravens and Texans, he has four games against the NFC West, which has quietly become one of the best defensive divisions. Brady then faces the Bills twice and the Titans and Jaguars. Outside of games against the Colts and Broncos, none of Brady's matchups look particularly "easy." Of course, he's Tom Brady, but this may be a reason to temper your enthusiasm on him."

 

[Anthony Borbely]

typical over-reaction to pre-season. there is no game planning there is little to no in game adjustments.

 

[LHUCKS]

When LHUCKS speaks, people listen.

 

[butcher boy]

When LHUCKS speaks, people listen.

When cars crash, people stop to watch.

 

[LHUCKS]

Doesn't Brady have a relatively tough schedule this season? (and much tougher than 2011's was)

I would say it is moderately more difficult.

 

[David Yudkin]

In Brady's last 3 seasons when he was fully healthy, his overall VBD score for all players has been: 2011: #3, 2010: #10, 2007: #1. people are way overthinking this.

 

[Soulfly3]

When LHUCKS speaks, people listen.

perhaps.but when LHUCKS types, it's a different story

 

[12punch]

Smart move. People act like he's inhuman. He's not. That line blows and if he gets sacked more than the 32 times he was last year he might miss games. And the OL is far worse than last year. I think people are in for a shock vis a vis Brady. Not predicting his demise, but wouldn't surprise me one bit to see I'm fall to qb5 territory. And I went to Michigan and love brady. But I'd certainly take brees over him and probably Stafford and newton too.

this is one of ,if not the best, postings about NE that we've seen to date.. the pink elephant in the middle of the room is the NE o-line ..

others have said the o-line *should* be 'fine', and use terms like IF this guy comes back,and IF that guy comes back healthy, the NE offense will be a machine..

my questions is this: why is it that we all talk about red flags in regards to other situations or other players like Bradshaw, Vick, etc, but with NE, everyone downplays everything and paints this rosey picture, waxing poetic about Brady and 5000/50 for 2012 season, as one guy predicted..( actually,he said 55 TDs , which is ..it's like hitting Ludicrous Speed in the movie Space Balls)

Brady has been getting the snot knocked out of him in preseason..2 fumbles..hard hits, one directly on the knee..

he's 35..we know Rb's breakdown at 31 or so..WR's around the same time.whats the age that Qb's fall apart?

whatever it is, he's quickly approaching that age..

yeah, game 3 of pre looked pretty much the same last year.personally, I think there's definitely an issue, but I'm not jumping off any ledge.

 

[PlasmaDogPlasma]

In Brady's last 3 seasons when he was fully healthy, his overall VBD score for all players has been: 2011: #3, 2010: #10, 2007: #1. people are way overthinking this.

Pretty sure they're just thinking about the "fully healthy" part. Love the folks saying "they'll just keep Gronk in". Well jeez, that's one of the weapons people are basing their lofty expectations on in the first place and certainly a big part of that "#3" above.

 

[PatsWillWin]

I am in the minority but think overall the OL is a case of much ado about nothing. The Pats have 3 guys just coming back from injuries that are out of football shape and need practice playing together. I also expect Waters to come back next week. Then the only difference in the OL will be the retirement of Matt Light. None of these guys are expected to have any ill effects from their injuries. In prior preseason, Brady got the snot kicked out of him too, but no one remembers that. worst case, Gronkowski will stay in to block more or they keep a back in for blitz pick up to start the year. It's a rosier picture in NE because they will have all their guys on the field. There are players in PIT or PHI that WE KNOW will not play this year. Big difference. Also, the Pats have been able to plug and play and improve as the year goes on with the players they have had available each year. They will figure it out.

Some of the OL problems have been overblown and are just timing issues because of injuries, but that's mainly the interior. The one legitimate problem is that it's pretty obvious (to me, at least) that Nate Solder is not ready to be a quality starting left tackle. Many things do not translate from pre-season to the regular season, but an offensive tackle being able to block or not block does, I think. And they can't move back to RT because the other options for LT are even worse.

 

[thejag]

In the 3rd preseason game last year, Brady and the Pats got physically manhandled by the Lions. Following that game there was much the same reaction as this year. It turned out ok.

 

[PatsWillWin]

typical over-reaction to pre-season. there is no game planning there is little to no in game adjustments.

Agree. Too many people watch these pre-season games and think the NFL is putting on a show specifically so we can evaluate our fantasy football players before our drafts...They're not! They are preparing to play real-life football and have their own agenda which the vast majority of the times does NOT include working on a specific thing with key starters. The Patriots (and the other teams) already know what they have in their starters. They are working with lots of various people in multiple situations and, as a team that really likes people who can perform in multiple roles, it makes sense that the Patriots never particularly look like world beaters in the pre-season because they are probably being a ittle bit more experimental that most teams.i'm sure at the end of the day in Week1, the Pats will go down to Tennessee and you'll see a lot of familiar names as the weekly leaders.

"Okay Tom, I know our pass pro is subpar right now, but since it's just the pre-season, we're just going to stick to vanilla, crappy blocking and calling 5-7 step drops as usual - you're just going to have to take some hits. You understand."

 

[Multiple Scores]

Good grief.

 

[cracKer]

I have this recurring image of Tom Brady not finishing this season. Hope I'm wrong, but...

 

[SoBeDad]

Doesn't Brady have a relatively tough schedule this season? (and much tougher than 2011's was)does this impact anyone's thinking? or is Brady and NE so good that the tough Defenses vs the pass have no impact? (and i realize it is difficult to project how good a defense is from year to year, but we can try)I was looking at Clayton Gray's Strength of Schedule i think (defenses based on fantasy points given up).EDIT:nope, it was Chase Stuart's 'QB by Committee' article that mentioned Brady's tough schedule."...On the other hand, Tom Brady has the hardest schedule in the league – by far. In addition to four games against the Jets, Ravens and Texans, he has four games against the NFC West, which has quietly become one of the best defensive divisions. Brady then faces the Bills twice and the Titans and Jaguars. Outside of games against the Colts and Broncos, none of Brady's matchups look particularly "easy." Of course, he's Tom Brady, but this may be a reason to temper your enthusiasm on him."

The Miami and Jet defenses are worse than last year. In Miami, no Vontae David and no Nolan. Do the Jets have a pass rush? Also, the Ravens may not be all that, while the Texans lost their best defensive player and a good LB in Ryan. Brady has better weapons than last year - Ridey>BJG and Lloyd>Branch. I think NE will run the ball more effectively than last year, so Brady may have less yards but just as many TDs. BJG had no runs of over 20 yards in 181 attempts, while Ridley had 5 runs over 20 yards in just 87 attempts.

 

[12punch]

the problem with sos, besides just the actual evaluation, is that the pats don't really have a traditional offense.

the great bulk of brady's damage comes from a slot receiver (who isn't always in the slot) and a couple tight ends (who aren't always tight ends).

they add a more traditional wr this year, but will also lean on teh rb screen more.

there aren't many teams that defend all of that well, and even a top defense like sf or hou can get torched by a top qb (like brees) -- and this is all before the injuries.

I don't take the pats schedule lightly, but you can say the same things about brees and RAWDGERS!!

 

[Dismattle]

Id say there is countless reasons to raise/lower Brady ex. Def plays better, less need to attack (play smart/not really safe, but safer) Brady also plays up to the level of his foe. Theres also things good,Or bad,not in his control (RB fumbles or cant catch etc.) Brady isnt known for scrambln yds w TD's, its poossible that a QB could rank higher. In recent times, I really felt it foolish to consider any QB besides Rodgers in 1st rnd (I didnt agree at all w talk,of taking Vick that early)

btw When posting about actual "Sub Content" imo some vagueness is best An examplle would be stating Stafford is ranked higher (guy may not have much for run game, but has an arm n weapoons) I myself could answer, saying why I agree, or best explain why the confusion. A few posts later someone could post, yeah heres how some site ranks em (w no knowledge of why/how). The next day were all confused, and gain nothing. I mean to some degree, it would be my fault (for explaining something, in a way, whether I beieve it or not). Overall I dont want to see someone go elsewhere to use a forum, anymore than FBG wants to risk Subs.

For me personally, Id consider Brady real close to #1 QB. Im slightly concerned w the ex-SF WR, but when I consider risk's for injury, and having a great Coach etc. (its Brady for me) Im also, not a guy willing to spend a draft pick that early on QB too (my answer is'nt full of research) Its also possible you may want to look at total forecast points (QB's may actually be options 1A and 1B or 3A etc.)

Id consider using e-mail/twitter for a more defined responce. ie. its possible Rodgers, Brady, and Stafford are interchangable (possibly change by scoring format) heck you dont like the forecasts for TB, take Newton (odds are no one can nail points total) only based off one rookie Season of play..

p.s. ignore the named QB's, its just wild guess's

 

[RavenLunatic]

I liked Matt Waldman's comments on QB vs QBBC in a recent article.

In a league with small (non-PPR) starting lineups, (QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs and a TE), lean towards elite QB because the weekly point differential can carry you when there are fewer players to count on.

In larger roster leagues, where there is a 3rd WR or a handful of flex players, you can make up for production lost at QB.

 

[David Yudkin]

I liked Matt Waldman's comments on QB vs QBBC in a recent article.In a league with small (non-PPR) starting lineups, (QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs and a TE), lean towards elite QB because the weekly point differential can carry you when there are fewer players to count on.In larger roster leagues, where there is a 3rd WR or a handful of flex players, you can make up for production lost at QB.

I agree in theory but disagree in practice. In a 12-team league, in a start 2 WR league, the Top 24 WR are the bandwidth for determining VBD. If you bump it up to a start 3 WR league, then the baseline slides down to WR 36. The difference last year from WR24 to WR36 was 17 points in a 0 PPR league. So sure, you can pare down the value of elite QBs a little bit, but depending upon the year, the difference from QB1 to QB12 can be 175 or 200 points. Beyond that, IMO, it's a wash. Sure, if we played this out to say a start 5 WR league with flexes added in, again in theory that makes the top WR more valuable. However, every team in that fantasy league is then picking from the same corps of players. So to me, in terms of drafting, the best way to look at it is the difference in that one pick (early QB vs an early WR or any other position).Put another way, in that start 5 WR league, it's conceivable you would be drafting and starting 4 of the same WR on the team with Brady and the team without Brady. The only real difference would be where the Brady team took the other WR compared to where that other team took a QB. So the comparison should be Brady + spot with WR vs early WR + spot where starting QB would be taken. I would argue that the most simplistic way to compare is to add up the points for Brady and WR vs early WR plus later round QB, as in my eyes the rest of the team would have the same roster.How best to compare things has been debated in many other threads in this and many other off seasons, but that's how I would do it. Other opinions may vary.

 

[SonnyD]

Well at least they have it right now. It should have been Rodgers 1 and Brees 2 from the get go.

 

[David Yudkin]

Well at least they have it right now. It should have been Rodgers 1 and Brees 2 from the get go.

In the past 3 years, Brees has average 26.04 ppg and Rodgers 27.85 ppg. In his last 3 fully healthy seasons, Brady has averaged 27.80 ppg. I am not sure there is a "right answer" for how to rank the top QBs.

 

[SonnyD]

Well at least they have it right now. It should have been Rodgers 1 and Brees 2 from the get go.

In the past 3 years, Brees has average 26.04 ppg and Rodgers 27.85 ppg. In his last 3 fully healthy seasons, Brady has averaged 27.80 ppg. I am not sure there is a "right answer" for how to rank the top QBs.

While all true, I think recent trends are more important in expected future performance. Recent as in last year, and the composition of said players and their supporting staff. I just think Brees has a higher probability of duplicating or at least coming closer to last years numbers than Brady does to reaching that level. I like Brees' overall situation better.

 

[PatsWillWin]

Dodds has dropped Brandon Lloyd to the #36 overall WR. Right behind fantasy stalwart Darrius Heyward-Bey.