Tom Brady If Never Drafted by the Pats (1 Viewer)

[NE_REVIVAL]

Again, we don't know what might have happened to Brady because it didn't happen. Let's change the data set to all QBs drafted since 1970 who were picked from picks 101 to picks 200. That way, the truly late, late picks are not included.

There were 191 players drafted. 92 of them never started a game. Only 51 started 10 games. The only QBs to win 50 games were Brady (173), Hasselbeck (85), Brunell (78), Steve Grogan (75), and Stan Humphries (50).

By comparison, of all QBs drafted since 1970, there have been only 60 QBs that have won 50 or more games (out of 697 QBs drafted). That equates to only 8% of all QBs drafted reaching 50 wins. There have been 247 QBs get at least 10 starts (35%).

Who knows what would have happened to Brady. If he were a back up and got isolated injury fill in starts over several years to get to 10 starts, and say he made those on a really bad team, we may not have ever gotten to see the NE version of Tom Brady. Imagine if he got drafted to back up Peyton. He might not ever have gotten on the field (at least for the Colts).

Hahaha, good one A,

Seriously though, putting all the end result driven, meaningless statistical concoctions aside. I do believe we are discussing what "likely" would have happened not wishful thinking or every possible scenario. Hell if you want to go that route then P Manning might have gone to a team that cared more about winning than compiling meaningless regular season passing stats. Its even possible he would have had a change of heart and not been so self centered and greedy (IE leave some money for other players on his team); heck maybe he doesn't take the peds and is out of the league by 2013 like he should have been. Hell everything is possible, but not everything is likely. But I digress.

Again, we know that Brady was talented enough first year to earn a spot on the 45 man roster of a team that already a franchise qb and 2 backups so lumping him in with a bunch of guys who weren't doesn't make a lot of sense.

Can you answer a simple question? Your not really saying\claiming it is likely brady would not have enjoyed success elsewhere, your just saying it is possible, right?

 

[Anarchy99]

Comparing Manning and Brady is not a great example, IMO. Manning was the cat's meow coming out of college. Every team wanted him if they could have gotten him. Brady, not so much.

What we DO know about Brady is that no matter how talented Brady is, things definitely went his way. He may have ended up starting for NE, but Bledsoe getting hurt helped his cause. Having the best head coach of his generation, a serious of great offensive coordinators, good to excellent defenses, and some good to very good receiving options also helped.

What we DON'T know about if Brady went elsewhere is how good all those things I just listed were in a different environment. Having talent, a good work ethic, and a will to win only goes so far. All I am saying is as an unheralded, late round pick, Brady may not have gotten the spotlight like Peyton did and may not have been afforded the opportunity that a top ranked prospect typically gets. Who knows what could have happened, but would we be talking about Joe Montana if he got drafted by Tampa Bay? Would Lynn Swann be a Hall of Famer playing in Cleveland?

IMO, Brady was the perfect fit for New England based on the coaching, the offense they wanted to run, the personnel, etc. Some will argue that makes him a good system quarterback, and in some ways that's probably true. He has been great for the NE system. I don't believe every QB would succeed in NE, nor does that mean Brady would not have done well in another system.

That being said, I would tend to guess that the Patriots would still have been a good to excellent team with another QB. And there were so many mediocre teams out there that I don't think Brady alone would have been able to turn the entire franchise around. That doesn't lessen anything Brady has done so far. Mayve Brady could have gone to Cleveland or Houston and made them SB champions and perennial contenders, All we can discuss with any certainty is how he did with NE, which has been pretty phenomenal.

 

[NE_REVIVAL]

Comparing Manning and Brady is not a great example, IMO. Manning was the cat's meow coming out of college. Every team wanted him if they could have gotten him. Brady, not so much.

What we DO know about Brady is that no matter how talented Brady is, things definitely went his way. He may have ended up starting for NE, but Bledsoe getting hurt helped his cause. Having the best head coach of his generation, a serious of great offensive coordinators, good to excellent defenses, and some good to very good receiving options also helped.

What we DON'T know about if Brady went elsewhere is how good all those things I just listed were in a different environment. Having talent, a good work ethic, and a will to win only goes so far. All I am saying is as an unheralded, late round pick, Brady may not have gotten the spotlight like Peyton did and may not have been afforded the opportunity that a top ranked prospect typically gets. Who knows what could have happened, but would we be talking about Joe Montana if he got drafted by Tampa Bay? Would Lynn Swann be a Hall of Famer playing in Cleveland?

IMO, Brady was the perfect fit for New England based on the coaching, the offense they wanted to run, the personnel, etc. Some will argue that makes him a good system quarterback, and in some ways that's probably true. He has been great for the NE system. I don't believe every QB would succeed in NE, nor does that mean Brady would not have done well in another system.

That being said, I would tend to guess that the Patriots would still have been a good to excellent team with another QB. And there were so many mediocre teams out there that I don't think Brady alone would have been able to turn the entire franchise around. That doesn't lessen anything Brady has done so far. Mayve Brady could have gone to Cleveland or Houston and made them SB champions and perennial contenders, All we can discuss with any certainty is how he did with NE, which has been pretty phenomenal.

I agree with much of that and there is probably some hair splitting going on here. I understand we are pretending he didn’t go to ne and that’s fine, but I don’t see why we have to pretend we don’t know for sure that he is more talented than Spergon Wynn was. I am fine not considering anything that happened after Bledsoe went down, but the guy made the 45 man roster of a team that already had 3 QBs. There was nothing lucky about that, he showed he had enough nfl talent that the team didn’t feel they could get him through waivers.

I agree we have no way of knowing for sure what would have happened and im not saying brady would have been hof no matter where he went. Lots of things factor in to just how successful a nfl career is, its the ultimate team sport. Im saying through talent and sheer force of will its very difficult to imagine (as some here are) that he wouldn’t have become a starter. To me that is pretty silly, but how successful would he have been, that’s the tuff one. Hard to say, he is a very pretty bright and determined individual and near impossible to keep down for long. I think it is safe to assume he would have (at some point) signed with a team where it was a good situation so there is no doubt in my mind he becomes a starter. Where would he have gone from there? Hard to say, success is a subjective word, but it sounds like you probably agree he likely would have had at least some success and that’s good enough for me.

Agreed brady lucked out hooking up with one of, if not the best hc of all time, there is no denying that. However, bb had a pretty talented qb before brady and went 5-12 leading up to brady taking over.   People talk about the system and we probably need another thread for the topic, but imho brady makes the system much more so that the system makes brady. The system can’t morph week to week, year to year, decade to decade unless you have a qb that is versatile, extremely bright and extremely talented. You can get away with lesser talent for a while, but not for long, certainly not 15 years.  Anyway im sure we will hear from the “what about 2008” season crowd and that’s fine; if someone wants to start a thread on the ne “system” I will happy to share my thoughts on that.

For all the words exchanged I don’t think we disagree all that much.

 

[ghostguy123]

Just curious, for those who truly believe Brady could have easily never had much of a career if stuck behind a great QB.  Say that happened.  So??

That would just mean teams didn't spot a stud and missed out. 

Doesn't really change how great he is. 

 

[Bri]

Not even remotely true.

I respect your right to be wrong.




 

So you didn't look at stats and you expect me to go to PFR and paste them here. 

I'm not wrong, it's an opinion. As JWB has taught me over and over, peers matter too for the HOF. You have to take them in as comparison and he's gotta be the best. I mentioned Hernandez when he was young. Was Graham better one year? I know Walker had more catches last year. All that stuff will matter.

Gronk surely seems well on his way and I'm confident he will make the HOF. It's gotta play out though.

Tony G, Gates, and Sharpe are the standard he hopes to surpass. There's a lot of us old timers that love Bavaro as some variable like fave non-HOF TE. I think Gronk has a lot of Bavaro's style to him and that's a great thing.

Was it you? Someone else? I don't think he's the fastest TE. I remember some insane # for Vernon Davis. Delanie has returned kicks and played FB and WR. Jared Cook was always fast. Maybe a 40 time metric would help, but I think age comes in and the bottom-line here is his speed is not superior to his peers.

Gronk seems to score almost every week, but so did Tony G and Gates. 

He's almost there and, again, I'm confident he'll make it, but you're laying it on too thick.

 

[DropKick]

 It was rather obvious that the team responded to brady’s skills and leadership in a way they never did or would have with bledsoe.

Not a perfect comparison, but I feel the same thing is happening in Dallas right now.

 

[spider321]

Hernandez was similar to better each year they were there.

So you didn't look at stats and you expect me to go to PFR and paste them here. 

I'm not wrong, it's an opinion. 

Wtf would you make #### up and then accuse me of being the one who has not looked at the stats?!?!

2010 Gronk 42-546-10, Hernandez 45-563-6

2011 Gronk 90-1,327-10, Hernandez 79-910-7

2012 Gronk 55-790-11, Hernandez 51-483-5

Your opinion is, in fact, wrong.

 

[Thunderlips]

I agree with much of that and there is probably some hair splitting going on here. I understand we are pretending he didn’t go to ne and that’s fine, but I don’t see why we have to pretend we don’t know for sure that he is more talented than Spergon Wynn was. I am fine not considering anything that happened after Bledsoe went down, but the guy made the 45 man roster of a team that already had 3 QBs. There was nothing lucky about that, he showed he had enough nfl talent that the team didn’t feel they could get him through waivers.

I agree we have no way of knowing for sure what would have happened and im not saying brady would have been hof no matter where he went. Lots of things factor in to just how successful a nfl career is, its the ultimate team sport. Im saying through talent and sheer force of will its very difficult to imagine (as some here are) that he wouldn’t have become a starter. To me that is pretty silly, but how successful would he have been, that’s the tuff one. Hard to say, he is a very pretty bright and determined individual and near impossible to keep down for long. I think it is safe to assume he would have (at some point) signed with a team where it was a good situation so there is no doubt in my mind he becomes a starter. Where would he have gone from there? Hard to say, success is a subjective word, but it sounds like you probably agree he likely would have had at least some success and that’s good enough for me.

Agreed brady lucked out hooking up with one of, if not the best hc of all time, there is no denying that. However, bb had a pretty talented qb before brady and went 5-12 leading up to brady taking over.   People talk about the system and we probably need another thread for the topic, but imho brady makes the system much more so that the system makes brady. The system can’t morph week to week, year to year, decade to decade unless you have a qb that is versatile, extremely bright and extremely talented. You can get away with lesser talent for a while, but not for long, certainly not 15 years.  Anyway im sure we will hear from the “what about 2008” season crowd and that’s fine; if someone wants to start a thread on the ne “system” I will happy to share my thoughts on that.

For all the words exchanged I don’t think we disagree all that much.

How many teams in the 98/99/00 season drafted a QB with a high pick or were content with the QB they had?  I'd find it hard to believe that Brady, coming in as an unspectacular, average talented, 6th round QB, would beat out Manning/McNabb/Culpepper/Brunell/Warner and a number of other QBs (Couch?/Akili Smith?/Pennington?) who were either good or whose HC's(and teams Front Office) careers were tied intricately to their success.  Not to say that Brady wouldn't have eventually had success elsewhere, but, I imagine after he won the backup QB 2 position (which is someting entirely feasible), sat on the bench for the entire year(and the year after...and the year after) as the teams number two; either because the man in front of him outplayed him or was "the choice" of the HC and thus given a long rope.

That second part is the key to me.  Head Coaches and Front Office guys don't always like to be proven wrong.  If a team spent a high draft pick or a lot of FA money signing the guy they thought was The Guy.....they're going to give him chance after chance....mainly because admitting they're wrong on him (and benching him for a 6th round pick) shows that they are fallible.  BB had the luxury of not being the guy who picked Bledsoe.  He inherited him.

That being said, unless there was an injury, he wouldn't have the opportunity to shine and thereford wouldn't have been in a big demand once his contract was up.  Who knows?  Maybe he plays enough or gets enough of a rep that would have ended up being traded (a Schaub or Hasselbeck) into a more favorable situation at a younger age.......but without A) a track record in the NFL and B) unbelievable physical attributes.....he's going into just about any other situation having to fight for a job.

Not being with BB and Pats....I think he ends up like Rich Gannon (except maybe starting the quality years of his career earlier). Sits, spot duty, wins some games, has to fight, gets respect in the league and his tenacity gives him a couple of chances until he finds the optimal situation where he excels.  

 

[Bri]

Wtf would you make #### up and then accuse me of being the one who has not looked at the stats?!?!

2010 Gronk 42-546-10, Hernandez 45-563-6

2011 Gronk 90-1,327-10, Hernandez 79-910-7

2012 Gronk 55-790-11, Hernandez 51-483-5

Your opinion is, in fact, wrong.




 

2010 is not similar? 51 catches versus 55 is not?

 

[spider321]

2010 is not similar? 51 catches versus 55 is not?

Oh, stop it.  That reach is way worse than just admitting you're full of it.

The fact that Gronk had 67% more TD's in 2010, and he had 120% more TD's AND 64% more yards in 2012, most definitely means that Hernandez was never "similar to better" than Gronk.

They both played on a football field.

I suppose, in that sense, you could say Hernandez was "similar to better".

Just admit you were making stuff up, Bri.

 

[bagger]

Environment has a much bigger role than many people in this thread are giving credit for. 

 

[Thunderlips]

Oh, stop it.  That reach is way worse than just admitting you're full of it.

The fact that Gronk had 67% more TD's in 2010, and he had 120% more TD's AND 64% more yards in 2012, most definitely means that Hernandez was never "similar to better" than Gronk.

Tbey both played on a football field.

I suppose, in that sense, you could say Hernandez was "similar to better".

Just admit you were making stuff up, Bri.

I don't really have a dog in this fight, but Gronk played in 5 more games that Hernandez during that time frame.  

Gronk was better because he was/is a complete player. He excels at everything.  IIRC, Hernandez wasn't a good blocker at all and was more in line with Jimmy Graham.  

 

[Bri]

Oh, stop it.  That reach is way worse than just admitting you're full of it.

The fact that Gronk had 67% more TD's in 2010, and he had 120% more TD's AND 64% more yards in 2012, most definitely means that Hernandez was never "similar to better" than Gronk.

Tbey both played on a football field.

I suppose, in that sense, you could say Hernandez was "similar to better".

Just admit you were making stuff up, Bri.




 

all you keep doing is insulting

Now when I reply to stats you post I am making stuff up

I'm too old for this stuff. When you can discuss like an adult, let me know

 

[spider321]

I'm too old for this stuff.

...and too stubborn to admit you are wrong.

 

[Bri]

...and too stubborn to admit you are wrong.

Opinions are not wrong

Grow up

 

[Tool]

Environment has a much bigger role than many people in this thread are giving credit for. 

I think you've seen Trading Places one too many times.