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Tom Brady...what are you expecting (1 Viewer)

Man of Zen

Footballguy
Typical Brady stuff and a 5th-8th place QB finish because he isn't going to be quite Brees level and doesn't run a lick.

 

ConnSKINS26

Footballguy
This is going to sound very weird, especially to me as I'm almost always a Patriots hater, but I just feel like Brady is on another level this year.

I literally don't care who he's throwing to, I won't listen to reason. He's in the zone right now and seems like he's just got preturnatural instincts and more ridiculous ball placement than ever. I really can't shake the feeling that he's about to embark on a historic-type season that will cement his legacy even as he's still got years left at his peak.

I'm a Patriots hater, but there's no denying Tom Brady this season.

I honestly regret, for the sport of football, that he suffered that season-ender right after his 50 TD season, who knows where he'd already be on all-time lists. Well, probably 4,500 yards and 40 TD's higher or so, but you all know what I mean. It was a shame seeing him miss an entire season of his prime, although Peyton's neck injury kinda kept them on the same level in that regard.

 

Kool-Aid Larry

Footballguy
I took a close look at brady/pats stats for another pats thread, and what I found was that pretty much the main difference between crazybrady and regular brady was scoring efficiency.

people have this impression of '07 being all about moss and some kind of crazy offensive airshow, but a lot of brady/pats stats over the last few years are fairly similar, with the '07 difference being that they converted drives into td's at a historically elite clip, rather than just an annual top 3 league clip.

obviously, moss helped improve their offensive efficiency, but I think there's a lot more upward mobility for scoring than people would give even brady credit for just based on potential drive efficiency.

basically, what I'm saying is that every year they're right there in terms of potential td, but in '07 they actually managed to convert that opportunity at a historically efficient rate.

I know there are a few that say his receivers have been wiped out, but in 2006 they were 7th in the league in passing td with his leading receiver being reche caldwell,

 

Kool-Aid Larry

Footballguy
to get back to the op, I wanted to post some pats stats, since 2007 is always thrown out there for comparison as the pot of gold year.

from football outsiders (thx, FO)

and pro-football-reference

2007

pass/run - 586/451

yards - 6580 - 1st

plays - 1058 - 2nd by 2 plays

off td - 67

rush td - 17 - tied 5th

drives - 158 - actually tied with indy for lowest in league

yds/drive - 41.63 - 1st in league (indy 2nd at 37)

td/drive - .424 - 1st in league (indy 2nd at .323)

DSR - .812 - 1st in league (indy 2nd at .769)

DSR represents Drive Success Rate, as introduced in Pro Football Prospectus 2005, which measures the percentage of down series that result in a first down or touchdown.

2011

pass/run - 612/438

yards - 6848 - 2nd

plays - 1082 - 2nd

off td - 57

rush td - 18 - 3rd

drives - 173 - 4th lowest (pit lowest at 165)

yds/drive - 39.53 - 2nd (NO 1st at 42.44)

td/drive - .329 - 3rd (GB 1st at .375)

DSR - .775 - 2nd (NO 1st at .788)

rolling into 2011, I thought new england was going to be the dominant team everybody's talking about for 2012, and maybe I'm a spoiled pats fan, but I'd say 2011 turned out to be good, but not great.

comparing these 2 sets of stats, I think they're remarkably similar -- more similar than I expected, but the key difference, and this is what I DID expect, is basically drive efficiency.

there's about a .100 drop off from 2007 to 2011 in td/drive, resulting in about 10 fewer brady td's over 170+ drives.

I'll post up td/drive leaders from the past few years for comparison:

2011 - GB .375

2010 - NE .354

2009 - NO .312

2008 - NO .309

2007 - NE .424

2006 - IN .324

2005 - IN .314

2004 - IN .367

2003 - KC .306

2002 - KC .299

2001 - SL .324

2000 - SL .350

average of above subtracting 2007 - .330

so, you can see the 2007 pats did their damage just by being crazy efficient on their drives --- just about .100 above the typical leader or nearly 30%.

30% better than an annual leader is pretty efficient, and this obviously includes some of the very best offenses of the last decade - saints, indy, packers, rams.

the 2011 team weighed in at only .329 td/drive, which is just about exactly the .330 average of annual leaders shown above.

those of you looking to squeeze more fantasy points out of the pats this year can actually do so if mcd and lloyd manage to pimp that drive efficiency back up to the crazy good ted williams level.
as a bit of a post mortem post, football outsiders has the pats leading the league this past year in td/drive at .333, which is nearly identical to 2011 and the average league leader, but not at that freakish .400 level I was hoping for.although, hernandez missed quite a bit of time.
 

Tanner9919

Footballguy
With Amendola heqlthy (he is already hurt and apparently will not travel for this week's game), Brady is good for his usual 3800-4200/28-32 td season.Without Amendola, all bets are off..The young guys will have to pick up the slack..Edelman might become the poor man's Welker ...

 

Abraham

Footballguy
People don't realize how much they ran last year. If they tilt a little more to the pass and/or play as quickly, them 250/2 should be a given most weeks.

 

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