Tomlinson - Workload to increase in 2009 (1 Viewer)

[Ron_Mexico]

Rotoworld - Mar. 24 - 6:26 pm et

SD plans to increase Tomlinson's workload

Chargers coach Norv Turner plans to give LaDainian Tomlinson more carries this season, despite Darren Sproles' 2008 emergence.

"(Tomlinson) had 290 carries last season," Turner said. "I'd expect him to be in the 320s. He can handle it, and he'll be prepared to handle it. When it fits, we're going to use Darren. (But) I believe he can be a 1,500-yard rusher and a guy who catches 50 balls." It sounds like Turner plans to use a one-back system, which would cost Sproles most of his stand-alone value.

 

[Biabreakable]

Based on Turners history as OC and HC and LT's body of work I don't see how you would expect anything else unless LT is injured.

 

[Ron_Mexico]

Based on Turners history as OC and HC and LT's body of work I don't see how you would expect anything else unless LT is injured.

Many people are singing a different tune.I've been dangling him out there in one dynasty,but he doesn't seem to generate any interest at all.

 

[Domination]

Based on Turners history as OC and HC and LT's body of work I don't see how you would expect anything else unless LT is injured.

Many people are singing a different tune.I've been dangling him out there in one dynasty,but he doesn't seem to generate any interest at all.

I agree, but I think for the first time in his career he could be a great buy low candidate.

 

[trader jake]

SD plans to increase Tomlinson's workload

LT's recent track record suggests he won't be around when it matters most if Norv sticks to this plan.

 

[Biabreakable]

Based on Turners history as OC and HC and LT's body of work I don't see how you would expect anything else unless LT is injured.

Many people are singing a different tune.I've been dangling him out there in one dynasty,but he doesn't seem to generate any interest at all.

I forget the trade but LT went very cheaply imo in one of my leagues. So he is a great buy imho.I would not trade him. I believe he will do everything in his power to continue as a feature RB for the next 2-3 years. Somehow people still fail to recognize what an elite and exceptional player that he is. Think Walter Payton when making historical comparisons.

 

[thecardiackid]

Based on Turners history as OC and HC and LT's body of work I don't see how you would expect anything else unless LT is injured.

We need a 'fluff piece' icon for coach speak stuff like this. Maybe a couple college co-ed smileys having a pillow fight? Of course Turner will run a healthy LT more. Assuming LT manages to stay on the field, this "bump" adds about 2 totes a game on average over 16 games. But, that should realistically be expected - if not even more - as long as he can play.I don't think anyone is discounting LT's unique talent, but most agree he has "lost a step" and the reality is that the offense in SD is now running through Rivers first.Dynasty and trade value wise, last off season was the time to sell for a youth movement. Yea, he is still valuable to a team built to compete now (1500 and 10ish is always valuable in the right context), but that alone limits trading partners in dynasty. Not to mention he's on the wrong side of 30. And most solid dynasty owners are not often motivated to sell their future (draft picks and/or young talent) to maybe squeeze one or two more years out of a depreciating asset.

 

[hostile]

As an LT owner in my keeper, I'll believe it when I see it.

No big deal in a guy getting 320 carries when his OLine is a friggin' doormat.

 

[Biabreakable]

I don't think anyone is discounting LT's unique talent, but most agree he has "lost a step" and the reality is that the offense in SD is now running through Rivers first.

Well I guess you can put me in the category of not most then, because I do not agree that LT has lost a step. Yes he didn't finish in the top 5 for the 1st time since he was a rookie... but he played through an injury all season. We'll see. But I bet LT comes in top form and returns to the top 5 again in 2009.As far as the offense running through Rivers.. I don't think that is a bad think. LT caught 100 balls in a season before. He will still be involved and get better YPC off receptions than he would with more carries. This is still a Norv offense also. LT and Gates were hurt last year, so does that mean the offense runs more through Rivers? Or was that more a product of neccessity?Main thing against LT is he is now 30 but LT is not an average player. If guys like Thomas Jones and Curtis Martin can succeed after 30 then why won't LT?

 

[fsufan]

Based on Turners history as OC and HC and LT's body of work I don't see how you would expect anything else unless LT is injured.

Many people are singing a different tune.I've been dangling him out there in one dynasty,but he doesn't seem to generate any interest at all.

that is b/c alot of dynasty players over value young players and rookie picks and under value vets

 

[Banger]

I don't think anyone is discounting LT's unique talent, but most agree he has "lost a step" and the reality is that the offense in SD is now running through Rivers first.

Well I guess you can put me in the category of not most then, because I do not agree that LT has lost a step. Yes he didn't finish in the top 5 for the 1st time since he was a rookie... but he played through an injury all season. We'll see. But I bet LT comes in top form and returns to the top 5 again in 2009.As far as the offense running through Rivers.. I don't think that is a bad think. LT caught 100 balls in a season before. He will still be involved and get better YPC off receptions than he would with more carries. This is still a Norv offense also. LT and Gates were hurt last year, so does that mean the offense runs more through Rivers? Or was that more a product of neccessity?Main thing against LT is he is now 30 but LT is not an average player. If guys like Thomas Jones and Curtis Martin can succeed after 30 then why won't LT?

I dont know that he's lost a step either. As was stated he was hurt and their line was not good. Even if the Chargers do pass more than in the past few years they will move the ball and LT will get plenty of red zone touches. He's one of the best red zone/goal line runners in history on a great offense and will get 300+ carries. Sounds like another top 5 year to me.

 

[twitch]

Based on the prolific #s Rivers put up last year, maybe opposing defenses will be forced to pay more attention to SD's passing game this year, and actually loosen up the box for LT moreso than in the past. Dont know, Im kindof asking here. Id think maybe D coordinators would convince themselves LT is no longer the player he once was, maybe they can play him a little differently. If so, it could work out nicely for Tomlinson owners.

 

[Biabreakable]

Based on the prolific #s Rivers put up last year, maybe opposing defenses will be forced to pay more attention to SD's passing game this year, and actually loosen up the box for LT moreso than in the past. Dont know, Im kindof asking here. Id think maybe D coordinators would convince themselves LT is no longer the player he once was, maybe they can play him a little differently. If so, it could work out nicely for Tomlinson owners.

While I think this is also possible I do not think that defensive coordinators are as down on LT as FF owners are. That does not change the fact that the SD passing game is a much greater threat than it has ever been during LTs career there. And defenses will have to respect that which probably will lead to more open lanes and less focus on LT than there has been from defenses in the past. Defenses will pick their poison and slow death from LT will be favorable to giving up bigger plays in the passing game.Lets not forget that Gates should be back healthy also which he clearly wasn't last year.

 

[Couch Potato]

The misconception is that the wheels fall off when a runner hits that magical age of 30. I think 30 is used because it's a nice round number. The reality is with a runner who keeps himself in shape, the danger number is more like 32. You'll find many cases of guys at 30 and 31 who still have outstanding years if they were already elite talents. I think LT has 2 seasons, maybe 3, where he can still be counted on for great production.

Because of the over-hyped perception that the drop happens at 30, he is a hold for current owners and a buy if you don't own him. You won't get value for him if you try to trade him away. If you're an owner, just be happy with his production in 2009 and 2010.

 

[Topes]

We need a 'fluff piece' icon for coach speak stuff like this.

Very good idea. It could be used on just about every piece of information released to the press from March through July, as well.

 

[Biabreakable]

We need a 'fluff piece' icon for coach speak stuff like this.

Very good idea. It could be used on just about every piece of information released to the press from March through July, as well.

I see a lot fun coming from such a emoticon. In the meantime sort of works.

 

[Banger]

We need a 'fluff piece' icon for coach speak stuff like this.

Very good idea. It could be used on just about every piece of information released to the press from March through July, as well.

I don't really consider a coach saying that he plans to give a RB 20 carries less than his historical average coach speak. There's good reason that his totals were down last year and after they resigned him it's pretty much what I expected. It will not be an RBBC. Sproles will come in on 3rd down and give LT a series off now and then like last year but his major role will be returning kicks and being a solid backup. Generally, I consider fluff pieces ones where coaches talk about guys in roles they've never had, catch/rush totals much higher than they've ever achieved (i.e. we're going to give him the ball 25 times a game when he's average 15 carries), etc.

 

[Routilla]

I don't see LT staying healthy enough for those kind of #s.

 

[Biabreakable]

I don't see LT staying healthy enough for those kind of #s.

Why?

 

[Banger]

I don't see LT staying healthy enough for those kind of #s.

any idea who else will get injured this year and for how long/how severe?

 

[H.K.]

Based on the prolific #s Rivers put up last year, maybe opposing defenses will be forced to pay more attention to SD's passing game this year, and actually loosen up the box for LT moreso than in the past. Dont know, Im kindof asking here. Id think maybe D coordinators would convince themselves LT is no longer the player he once was, maybe they can play him a little differently. If so, it could work out nicely for Tomlinson owners.

While I think this is also possible I do not think that defensive coordinators are as down on LT as FF owners are. That does not change the fact that the SD passing game is a much greater threat than it has ever been during LTs career there. And defenses will have to respect that which probably will lead to more open lanes and less focus on LT than there has been from defenses in the past. Defenses will pick their poison and slow death from LT will be favorable to giving up bigger plays in the passing game.Lets not forget that Gates should be back healthy also which he clearly wasn't last year.

Speaking of defenses, they'll see some good ones this season. They've got the AFC West home and away, which is good for LT....but then the AFC North, NFC East, Tenn & Mia.Here are their rankings from 2008 on PFR:

Rk Team

1 Pittsburgh Steelers

2 Tennessee Titans

3 Baltimore Ravens

4 Philadelphia Eagles

5 New York Giants

6 Washington Redskins

7 Indianapolis Colts

8 New England Patriots

9 Miami Dolphins

10 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I know defenses vary from year to year, but they play a lot of historically strong teams on the defensive side of the ball.

 

[Liquid Tension]

I think many people have made good points about LT. I agree with the ones that say you are better off keeping LT and having a top 10 finish with a lot of upside if he stays healthy. That may be a big if, but the guy has elite vision and this is important to continue to be strong. Guys like Curtis Martin were successful late in their careers because of fantastic vision. I have LT on my team and I floated a few trades last year (9 man keeper league - so almost a dynasty) because my philosophy is to get rid of a guy a year or 2 early rather than a year late. However, if the value in trading is not as high as I want, I will just sit back and enjoy a good year him.

 

[Brewzers]

I don't see LT staying healthy enough for those kind of #s.

Why?

I think injury concern for LT is valid. If you look at recent history of "elite" RBs (Marshall Faulk, Curtis Martin, Priest Holmes, Shaun Alexander), their production decline started with an injury they struggled to overcome. The injuries that spawn decline, tend to occur around the age of 30. If LT had not struggled with injuries last year, I probably wouldn't be concerned in 2009, but he did.

 

[Liquid Tension]

Based on the prolific #s Rivers put up last year, maybe opposing defenses will be forced to pay more attention to SD's passing game this year, and actually loosen up the box for LT moreso than in the past. Dont know, Im kindof asking here. Id think maybe D coordinators would convince themselves LT is no longer the player he once was, maybe they can play him a little differently. If so, it could work out nicely for Tomlinson owners.

While I think this is also possible I do not think that defensive coordinators are as down on LT as FF owners are. That does not change the fact that the SD passing game is a much greater threat than it has ever been during LTs career there. And defenses will have to respect that which probably will lead to more open lanes and less focus on LT than there has been from defenses in the past. Defenses will pick their poison and slow death from LT will be favorable to giving up bigger plays in the passing game.Lets not forget that Gates should be back healthy also which he clearly wasn't last year.

Speaking of defenses, they'll see some good ones this season. They've got the AFC West home and away, which is good for LT....but then the AFC North, NFC East, Tenn & Mia.Here are their rankings from 2008 on PFR:

Rk Team

1 Pittsburgh Steelers

2 Tennessee Titans

3 Baltimore Ravens

4 Philadelphia Eagles

5 New York Giants

6 Washington Redskins

7 Indianapolis Colts

8 New England Patriots

9 Miami Dolphins

10 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I know defenses vary from year to year, but they play a lot of historically strong teams on the defensive side of the ball.

In standard scoring leagues (non ppr and 6 pts a td) I have the following defenses who had the lowest average of points scored against them:1. Baltimore 12.26

2. Philadelphia 14.04

3. Pittsburgh 14.13

4. Washington 15.20

5. New England 15.58

6. Minnesota 15.64

7. Dallas 15.64

8. NY Jets 15.72

9. Tennessee 15.83

10.NY Giants 16.88

...

32. Detroit 28.57 (for reference)

Still a lot of solid D's here and while Tennessee may fall off with the loss of Haynesworth, Washington would be tougher. I was surprised that Philly was this tough against RB's.

 

[Routilla]

I don't see LT staying healthy enough for those kind of #s.

Why?

I think injury concern for LT is valid. If you look at recent history of "elite" RBs (Marshall Faulk, Curtis Martin, Priest Holmes, Shaun Alexander), their production decline started with an injury they struggled to overcome. The injuries that spawn decline, tend to occur around the age of 30. If LT had not struggled with injuries last year, I probably wouldn't be concerned in 2009, but he did.

He seems to have had more nagging injuries that he could not shake for the last few years. I don't know why anyone would expect him to make it through an entire season at full reps without it happening again. I don't know why SD would use him that much either based on the last few years and based on Sproles' emergence.

 

[Moe Green]

Tomlinson will be a steal in redrafts next season.

 

[Gr00vus]

Norv also said this:

“We have a luxury. We have a very good player in Darren Sproles. When it fits, we're going to use Darren. Over an entire season I think he can help LT carry that load.”

Unless they're going to run about a billion times this year, using Sproles more and getting Tomlinson 320+ carries doesn't line up. Personally I don't think they franchised Sproles this year for nothing and he'll get plenty of action in the regular offense, and they will try to reduce the number of carries for Tomlinson to try and keep him healthy into the playoffs. It also sounds like they're committing to Clary at RT, with an as yet to be determined RG. So as of now I don't see an improvement on the offensive line. I could see LaDainian being a top 10 back again, but it'll be tough for him to get back into the top 5.

 

[Banger]

I think many people have made good points about LT. I agree with the ones that say you are better off keeping LT and having a top 10 finish with a lot of upside if he stays healthy. That may be a big if, but the guy has elite vision and this is important to continue to be strong. Guys like Curtis Martin were successful late in their careers because of fantastic vision. I have LT on my team and I floated a few trades last year (9 man keeper league - so almost a dynasty) because my philosophy is to get rid of a guy a year or 2 early rather than a year late. However, if the value in trading is not as high as I want, I will just sit back and enjoy a good year him.

I'm essentially in the same spot. It all depends on the type of team you have IMO. If you've got a competitive team now it might make sense to hang onto him since you may not get adequate value for him. I'm perfectly fine riding him for another two years and letting him go off into the sunset. Again, it all depends on what you could get but I generally prefer the known as opposed to the unknown. Given the fact that LT is going to remain on the team for another couple years I'd rather take a fairly certain top 10 output over guys ranked higher currently (Kevin Smith, Reggie Bush, Ronnie Brown, P. Thomas, Addai, Lynch, Mendenhall) that with the exception of Addai (in 1 of 3 years) have never been top 10 and may never be.

 

[Banger]

I don't see LT staying healthy enough for those kind of #s.

Why?

I think injury concern for LT is valid. If you look at recent history of "elite" RBs (Marshall Faulk, Curtis Martin, Priest Holmes, Shaun Alexander), their production decline started with an injury they struggled to overcome. The injuries that spawn decline, tend to occur around the age of 30. If LT had not struggled with injuries last year, I probably wouldn't be concerned in 2009, but he did.

In their shorter careers, Peterson, Lynch, SJax, R. Brown, Gore, etc. have all missed more time to injury than LT has in his entire career. Regardless of how young or old RB's are they get hurt, it's a violent position. If he looked to be having chronic issues with his knees that would be cause for alarm IMO but he doesn't so I'm not.

 

[ChuckLiddell]

If LT is getting all these carries, then how do you justify the huge amount of money that the Chargers are then paying to a 3rd down back/KR this season?

I dont follow the Chargers all that closely, but I have seen Sproles play, and he brings a lot of excitement to that offense, and gives it a ton of flexibility.

I think this was just coach-speak personally. Sproles is gonna see a lot of PT this year, at the expense of LT IMO. That does not mean that LT is not going to be awesome this year, and a great real and fantasy player - I just dont see him being a 320 carry guy myself. I dont think it is in the best interests of the team when you have Sproles on the roster able to make plays also out of the backfield.

FWIW, I own neither player - just giving my opinion.

 

[B Will]

I don't see LT staying healthy enough for those kind of #s.

Why?

I think injury concern for LT is valid. If you look at recent history of "elite" RBs (Marshall Faulk, Curtis Martin, Priest Holmes, Shaun Alexander), their production decline started with an injury they struggled to overcome. The injuries that spawn decline, tend to occur around the age of 30. If LT had not struggled with injuries last year, I probably wouldn't be concerned in 2009, but he did.

He seems to have had more nagging injuries that he could not shake for the last few years. I don't know why anyone would expect him to make it through an entire season at full reps without it happening again. I don't know why SD would use him that much either based on the last few years and based on Sproles' emergence.

If running with turf toe and still going over 1000 10+ is seen as decline in production yes. but in 09 hell do better. YES i believe LT is more than thomas jones and curtis martin ever was. i still see no "struggle" in his game, just a quick injury he is OBVIOUSLY overcoming in 09'

 

[Bob Magaw]

the defense could be better also, which could give the chargers more favorable field position than last season & more red zone opps...

the secondary had a lot of trouble, but the re-insertion of a pro bowl caliber pass rusher like merriman will make a lot of problems on the defense go away... & they could draft a LB like malauga with the mid-1st (if they don't get knowshon moreno/beanie wells instead)...

the development of rivers seemingly can only be a positive, as far as leading to more scoring opps for LT... gates/chambers/jackson an underrated troika... even the presence of sproles could help him avoid getting worn out in his golden, twilight years...

the knee & toe problems in recent years could be problems associated with breaking down & of a "systemic" nature, but i don't think we know that conclusively & definitively, YET... playing the percentages, it is usually a smart play to expect a decline & therefore unload a RB as they approach 30, but it can miss out on the exceptional RBs...

an important distinction to make may be to look at his pattern of wear & "damage profile" (potentially a good name for a metal band )... unlike a guy like, say, earl campbell, who was close to done by 26-27 (& i think needs help tying his own shoelaces... seriously), hasn't absorbed a lot of kill shots over the years... yes, he has shouldered a staggering workload, partly because he was so resilient & earlier on, seemingly impervious/refractory to injury... his great field awareness & peripheral vision, instincts, lateral agility & cutting ability, short area burst & acceleration, etc, not only helped him to run by, through & away from defenders, but also for the most part to avoid the career-shortening types of head-on collisions & turn them into glancing blows & more manageable fender benders...

that COULD bode well for his near term future in next 2-3 years...

i may need to take off the throwback powder blue glasses, but i think one of the biggest issues (& that may even have contributed to LT's toe injury?) is that the OL didn't play very well, & took a big step back in '08... any SD homers want to weigh in if that was an aberration, or to expect more of the same in '09... conjectures on cause/s for the decline would also be appreciated, so we can sort of make an informed decision on our own if the reasons (if any) point up, down or sideways for LT, as far as the OL is concerned...

 

[Liquid Tension]

I think many people have made good points about LT. I agree with the ones that say you are better off keeping LT and having a top 10 finish with a lot of upside if he stays healthy. That may be a big if, but the guy has elite vision and this is important to continue to be strong. Guys like Curtis Martin were successful late in their careers because of fantastic vision. I have LT on my team and I floated a few trades last year (9 man keeper league - so almost a dynasty) because my philosophy is to get rid of a guy a year or 2 early rather than a year late. However, if the value in trading is not as high as I want, I will just sit back and enjoy a good year him.

I'm essentially in the same spot. It all depends on the type of team you have IMO. If you've got a competitive team now it might make sense to hang onto him since you may not get adequate value for him. I'm perfectly fine riding him for another two years and letting him go off into the sunset. Again, it all depends on what you could get but I generally prefer the known as opposed to the unknown. Given the fact that LT is going to remain on the team for another couple years I'd rather take a fairly certain top 10 output over guys ranked higher currently (Kevin Smith, Reggie Bush, Ronnie Brown, P. Thomas, Addai, Lynch, Mendenhall) that with the exception of Addai (in 1 of 3 years) have never been top 10 and may never be.

I would not trade LT for any of these players straight up. I do think Ronnie Brown is going to have an excellent year though and he would be the one player I would consider. I would trade to get Ronnie and something if I was going to move LT. Ronnie isn't that young though so you are only getting a few extra with him.

 

[texasbirdfan]

Norv also said this:

“We have a luxury. We have a very good player in Darren Sproles. When it fits, we're going to use Darren. Over an entire season I think he can help LT carry that load.”

Unless they're going to run about a billion times this year, using Sproles more and getting Tomlinson 320+ carries doesn't line up. Personally I don't think they franchised Sproles this year for nothing and he'll get plenty of action in the regular offense, and they will try to reduce the number of carries for Tomlinson to try and keep him healthy into the playoffs. It also sounds like they're committing to Clary at RT, with an as yet to be determined RG. So as of now I don't see an improvement on the offensive line. I could see LaDainian being a top 10 back again, but it'll be tough for him to get back into the top 5.

When it fits, we're going to use DarrenTurner has a history of being a RB vs. pass happy coach. If Sproles comes in on 3rd down- there seems to be the fit for Sproles not a bunch of every down series' imo.

 

[thecardiackid]

I don't think anyone is discounting LT's unique talent, but most agree he has "lost a step" and the reality is that the offense in SD is now running through Rivers first.

Well I guess you can put me in the category of not most then, because I do not agree that LT has lost a step. Yes he didn't finish in the top 5 for the 1st time since he was a rookie... but he played through an injury all season. We'll see. But I bet LT comes in top form and returns to the top 5 again in 2009.As far as the offense running through Rivers.. I don't think that is a bad think. LT caught 100 balls in a season before. He will still be involved and get better YPC off receptions than he would with more carries. This is still a Norv offense also. LT and Gates were hurt last year, so does that mean the offense runs more through Rivers? Or was that more a product of neccessity?

Main thing against LT is he is now 30 but LT is not an average player. If guys like Thomas Jones and Curtis Martin can succeed after 30 then why won't LT?

I dont know that he's lost a step either. As was stated he was hurt and their line was not good. Even if the Chargers do pass more than in the past few years they will move the ball and LT will get plenty of red zone touches. He's one of the best red zone/goal line runners in history on a great offense and will get 300+ carries. Sounds like another top 5 year to me.

I don't dispute that a healthy (i.e. 14+ game) LT will finish in the top 10 RBs, and likely closer to 1 than 10 THIS season w/ 375ish touches. I also think that over the past few seasons, SD has been forced to let LT watch late season & playoff games from the sideline b/c he's just not able to take the full season / bell cow pounding he was @ 25 anymore. So, in this emerging RBBC NFL world, why not let Sproles take 25-35% of the work load to change the pace and decrease the wear-n-tear on LT? Hopefully getting him through the regular season relatively healthy and ready to produce in the post season.However, it seems like the OP was directing this towards dicussing LT's dynasty trade value in today's market. My point was that aside from LT's trade value on the decline (due to age), his potential market for dynasty trade partners is limited to the 3-5 teams in a position to compete for a title this or maybe next season. Re-builders or fringe teams (smart ones anyway) won't leverage their longer term future for a solid season or two. Then you need to find enough of a fair market value to make a deal work on both sides.

Could LT be a significant piece of a dynasty team making a serious push for a title in 09 or maybe 10? Of course. Would I want him on my team if I wasn't realistically in a position to compete for a championship sooner than later? Don't think so.

 

[Brewzers]

I don't see LT staying healthy enough for those kind of #s.

Why?

I think injury concern for LT is valid. If you look at recent history of "elite" RBs (Marshall Faulk, Curtis Martin, Priest Holmes, Shaun Alexander), their production decline started with an injury they struggled to overcome. The injuries that spawn decline, tend to occur around the age of 30. If LT had not struggled with injuries last year, I probably wouldn't be concerned in 2009, but he did.

He seems to have had more nagging injuries that he could not shake for the last few years. I don't know why anyone would expect him to make it through an entire season at full reps without it happening again. I don't know why SD would use him that much either based on the last few years and based on Sproles' emergence.

If running with turf toe and still going over 1000 10+ is seen as decline in production yes. but in 09 hell do better. YES i believe LT is more than thomas jones and curtis martin ever was. i still see no "struggle" in his game, just a quick injury he is OBVIOUSLY overcoming in 09'

I think that is a dangerous mindset. You might be right, and if I owned LT, I'd hope for that too. I'd still be worried though. There is quite a history of RBs right around age 30 who seem invincible, but begin to get nicked with injuries. Those injuries tend (not always knee) to mark the beginning of production decline. How many people thought 2002 was an anomaly for Marshall Faulk or 2006 for Shaun Alexander? I think holding or buying low is the right strategy for LT. I don't think any LT owners should be surprised by negative reaction to trade offers.

 

[texasbirdfan]

The facts are starting NFL running backs last 4.5 years (league stats) and the reason they have the shortest life of any position besides the every day pounding is injury. They get injured a lot before they are 30. Way before.

 

[cstu]

Why?

I think injury concern for LT is valid. If you look at recent history of "elite" RBs (Marshall Faulk, Curtis Martin, Priest Holmes, Shaun Alexander), their production decline started with an injury they struggled to overcome. The injuries that spawn decline, tend to occur around the age of 30. If LT had not struggled with injuries last year, I probably wouldn't be concerned in 2009, but he did.

He seems to have had more nagging injuries that he could not shake for the last few years. I don't know why anyone would expect him to make it through an entire season at full reps without it happening again. I don't know why SD would use him that much either based on the last few years and based on Sproles' emergence.

If running with turf toe and still going over 1000 10+ is seen as decline in production yes. but in 09 hell do better. YES i believe LT is more than thomas jones and curtis martin ever was. i still see no "struggle" in his game, just a quick injury he is OBVIOUSLY overcoming in 09'

I think that is a dangerous mindset. You might be right, and if I owned LT, I'd hope for that too. I'd still be worried though. There is quite a history of RBs right around age 30 who seem invincible, but begin to get nicked with injuries. Those injuries tend (not always knee) to mark the beginning of production decline. How many people thought 2002 was an anomaly for Marshall Faulk or 2006 for Shaun Alexander? I think holding or buying low is the right strategy for LT. I don't think any LT owners should be surprised by negative reaction to trade offers.

A lot of people. Faulk's knee injuries were well-known (big warnings in this article from 2001 and even though it came a year early it was spot on) and nearly everyone thought the loss of Hutchinson was going to hurt SA. I simply don't see LT having serious issues since he's suffered nagging injuries that every RB gets.

 

[tommyGunZ]

the defense could be better also, which could give the chargers more favorable field position than last season & more red zone opps...the secondary had a lot of trouble, but the re-insertion of a pro bowl caliber pass rusher like merriman will make a lot of problems on the defense go away... & they could draft a LB like malauga with the mid-1st (if they don't get knowshon moreno/beanie wells instead)...the development of rivers seemingly can only be a positive, as far as leading to more scoring opps for LT... gates/chambers/jackson an underrated troika... even the presence of sproles could help him avoid getting worn out in his golden, twilight years...the knee & toe problems in recent years could be problems associated with breaking down & of a "systemic" nature, but i don't think we know that conclusively & definitively, YET... playing the percentages, it is usually a smart play to expect a decline & therefore unload a RB as they approach 30, but it can miss out on the exceptional RBs...an important distinction to make may be to look at his pattern of wear & "damage profile" (potentially a good name for a metal band )... unlike a guy like, say, earl campbell, who was close to done by 26-27 (& i think needs help tying his own shoelaces... seriously), hasn't absorbed a lot of kill shots over the years... yes, he has shouldered a staggering workload, partly because he was so resilient & earlier on, seemingly impervious/refractory to injury... his great field awareness & peripheral vision, instincts, lateral agility & cutting ability, short area burst & acceleration, etc, not only helped him to run by, through & away from defenders, but also for the most part to avoid the career-shortening types of head-on collisions & turn them into glancing blows & more manageable fender benders...that COULD bode well for his near term future in next 2-3 years...i may need to take off the throwback powder blue glasses, but i think one of the biggest issues (& that may even have contributed to LT's toe injury?) is that the OL didn't play very well, & took a big step back in '08... any SD homers want to weigh in if that was an aberration, or to expect more of the same in '09... conjectures on cause/s for the decline would also be appreciated, so we can sort of make an informed decision on our own if the reasons (if any) point up, down or sideways for LT, as far as the OL is concerned...

, as usual Bob. This is almost my exact reading as a SD homer. Anyone with turf toe "loses a step", so I don't think it's logical to come to that conclusion yet. If he remains healthy this year and we don't see multiple 40+ yd TDs, we'll have our answer.People can hate all they want, but I see don't see more than a couple players who are more of a 1500, 15 TD lock (assuming health) than LT2. He's still the #1 red zone option on perhaps the best offensive team in football.

 

[two_dollars]

I really want to convince myself to target him in a redraft next year if I draft from #5 to #10..

but he really has a lot of miles on him..

 

[Tanner9919]

Based on Turners history as OC and HC and LT's body of work I don't see how you would expect anything else unless LT is injured.

Many people are singing a different tune.I've been dangling him out there in one dynasty,but he doesn't seem to generate any interest at all.

the real value in LT is that he's one of a small number of NFL RB's that are not involved in RBBC...so in that regard, he's worth a lot. Whether he's a tad slower than previous years is one thing, but if healthy , he worthy of taking a chance on in any fantasy draft, and he's worth trading for..320+ carries is lot of action with loads of opportunities!a golden buy-low candidate!

 

[BigBetz]

the real value in LT is that he's one of a small number of NFL RB's that are not involved in RBBC...

I think this might change slightly this year. Turner might say he wants to give LT 320+ carries but he knows he wants LT fresher in the 4th qtr. He will give carries to Sproles throughout the game. I am hoping LT will be a monster in the red zone this year. That will depend on his line, not if he lost a step!!I still think LT will have a great year though. I am keeping him in my keeper league ahead of Bush and Slaton....

 

[Ron_Mexico]

Based on Turners history as OC and HC and LT's body of work I don't see how you would expect anything else unless LT is injured.

Many people are singing a different tune.I've been dangling him out there in one dynasty,but he doesn't seem to generate any interest at all.

I forget the trade but LT went very cheaply imo in one of my leagues. So he is a great buy imho.I would not trade him. I believe he will do everything in his power to continue as a feature RB for the next 2-3 years. Somehow people still fail to recognize what an elite and exceptional player that he is. Think Walter Payton when making historical comparisons.

I've actually had a complete role reversal regarding LT.Rather than trying to sell him in two leagues at below market value,I am holding, I'll also try to buy him in one other league.

 

[Tigerbot Hesh]

I'm holding in my keeper league. I didn't even offer him up because I don't think I could get decent value for him right now, IMO.

 

[trader jake]

One thing that I haven't read yet...if an owner is looking to buy LT for a title run I'd wait until after the draft.

LT and Sproles could take a hit if San Diego selects a first day running back. I'm guessing A.J. Smith doesn't go this route but if he has a rookie RB pegged as a stud you never know (especially if one falls in the 2nd).

 

[Buckna]

One thing that I haven't read yet...if an owner is looking to buy LT for a title run I'd wait until after the draft.LT and Sproles could take a hit if San Diego selects a first day running back. I'm guessing A.J. Smith doesn't go this route but if he has a rookie RB pegged as a stud you never know (especially if one falls in the 2nd).

SD has no 2nd rounder.

 

[TS Garp]

This is solely my opinion as a Charger fan, but I'm not reading much into these comments by Turner. The Chargers don't want to see LT on the sidelines for a third straight postseason and I believe they'll do everything in their power to keep him healthy and fresh, i.e. lightening his workload a bit. I think that the coaching staff knows that Sproles is at his best when teams don't game-plan for him so much, and I wouldn't be surprised if this was a ploy to downplay Sproles' role in an attempt to get teams to focus their attention elsewhere. Don't get me wrong, I don't think we'll see a RBBC, but I also don't think you'll see Tomlinson's role increase in terms of his touches at all, and I also do believe that while he's still incredibly valuable, he's not the same back that he was. He'll be the man near the goal line, but I could see something along the lines of 1,050 with 14 td's, while Sproles could put up 700 with 5 td's or so. The bottom line is that while Tomlinson is capable of handling an increased workload, the risks outweigh the rewards, and I just don't see the logic in increasing his workload when he's been out for 2 postseasons in a row, he's a year older, and you have another back who has shown that he's capable of being very productive when given the chance. Just my opinion.

Edited for grammar.

 

[cstu]

One thing that I haven't read yet...if an owner is looking to buy LT for a title run I'd wait until after the draft.LT and Sproles could take a hit if San Diego selects a first day running back. I'm guessing A.J. Smith doesn't go this route but if he has a rookie RB pegged as a stud you never know (especially if one falls in the 2nd).

SD has no 2nd rounder.

The value is now while there's still some concerns in owners minds whether they will take a RB early. The earliest they will take a RB is the 3rd round and even that is very unlikely.