Tony Romo owners could be in for a let down week 15 (1 Viewer)

[rickyg]

I am totally torn on my prognostications for Romo this saturday. Coming off perhaps his best statistical game of 2011 last week vs the giants, people are expecting big things from him in week 15.

Here is everything he has going for him right now:

1) momentum - he is playing at a high level

2) Dallas is in a do or die must win playoff race

3) He has his full compliment of WR's at his disposal - austin, bryant, robinson, witten, and felix out of the backfield is a good passcatcher. that combination if romo is on target is downright scary and near unstoppable.

4) He is playing one of the most generous pass defenses in the NFL.

Now here is what has me concerned:

Tampa bay offense is absolutely TERRIBLE! It is totally concievable that Romo could blow his load in the first half with a few td's and the dallas defense can keep TB to 6 points all game. In that scenario, the 2nd half of the game would feature felix jones vs a terrible pass defense. We dont get points for romo handing off the ball!

If TB had any offense to speak of I would be of the opinion that Romo is in for a similar stat line to what he did vs NYG last week. But the fact that the game will be well in hand very early has me greatly concerned.

Am I missing something here?

Am I crazy to think that tebow is a better start in week 15 bc of this tidbit? Conversely, Tebow faces a one of the worst defenses in the NFL...a laughable pass defense, and a defense that isn't great (outside of andre carter) of putting pressure on a QB. He also faces one of the leagues best offenses. Denver defense is pretty good, but they'll be no match for the firepower NE brings. IF that holds true, the pats will be running up the score. Tebow will have no other choice but to air it out and run his butt off to keep up. This could b Tebow's best fantasy output statistically in 2011.

Are other people actually considering all of this?

 

[glumpy]

Tampa bay offense is absolutely TERRIBLE! It is totally concievable that Romo could blow his load in the first half with a few td's and ......

I'm in exactly the same boat, with a Romo/Tebow decision. Take a look again at what you just posted, which I just isolated. What more would you want?

 

[chitlins3]

Cowboys have blown 3 games where they had a lead of 12+ points in the 4th quarter this year. I don't think they'll be letting up on the gas if they get a big lead.

 

[rickyg]

Tampa bay offense is absolutely TERRIBLE! It is totally concievable that Romo could blow his load in the first half with a few td's and ......

I'm in exactly the same boat, with a Romo/Tebow decision. Take a look again at what you just posted, which I just isolated. What more would you want?

Well...yeah...im definitely not saying that I think Romo will have a BAD game. Not at all. I think at WORST he will have an efficient, workmanlike game. Say 250 yards passing and 2 td's and then we watch them run out the clock with felix jones rest of the game. Let's not forget how bad TB's run defense is. Jones might have 1 or 2 td's. So if romo throws for 2 and jones runs for one, we throw in a few dan bailey FG's, TB can't hang with that type of scoring. We could see Dallas win 27-6 and romo have that stat line. Which is good. just not GREAT. My thinking is that Romo only produced what he produced last week bc he played a high octane offense in the ginats in a huge rivalry game. But this weekend wont be the same.

 

[footballnerd]

they won't be up 35-0 at the half, unless they are up by about 30 pts, i think they'll keep running their offense until the mid 4th. by then Romo could have 3 TDs easy.

 

[NJDawgPound]

Romo owner here but not concerned.

Garrett is a QB himself, Romo has a full set of weapons, and they go big or go home in Texas. They're on the road at a ho-hum venue visiting a team who is mailing it in at this point; pressure's off and team focus is on. It's a statement game in primetime coming off of a tough loss, I believe that Romo is in for not only a good day, but a career day. I'm talking potential for 5TDs.

 

[rickyg]

Cowboys have blown 3 games where they had a lead of 12+ points in the 4th quarter this year. I don't think they'll be letting up on the gas if they get a big lead.

good point.

 

[thehornet]

they won't be up 35-0 at the half, unless they are up by about 30 pts, i think they'll keep running their offense until the mid 4th. by then Romo could have 3 TDs easy.

safe assessment

 

[footballnerd]

they won't be up 35-0 at the half, unless they are up by about 30 pts, i think they'll keep running their offense until the mid 4th. by then Romo could have 3 TDs easy.

safe assessment

 

[rickyg]

Romo owner here but not concerned. Garrett is a QB himself, Romo has a full set of weapons, and they go big or go home in Texas. They're on the road at a ho-hum venue visiting a team who is mailing it in at this point; pressure's off and team focus is on. It's a statement game in primetime coming off of a tough loss, I believe that Romo is in for not only a good day, but a career day. I'm talking potential for 5TDs.

Holy crap I would dance a jig and kiss you if I could if that happened!

 

[TheFootballJesus]

Another thing of note here, Felix Jones has NEVER been a good goal line back. I guess there's the chance that Sammy Morris poaches a few touchdowns, but my guess is that when the cowboys get inside the 5 they'll be more successful passing the ball.

 

[ShaHBucks]

Could mirror the Stl game but romo was hurt.

 

[Dought Man]

Another thing of note here, Felix Jones has NEVER been a good back.

fixed

 

[Cawbird]

I don't think Dallas has the luxury to pound the ball the 2nd half, even with the scenario that they are up big in the 1st half. Remember.........Felix is all they have the rest of the way. There is no way that they are going to hand the ball to him 20+ times, despite the score. Sammy Morris just signed, so I doubt he is capable of 10+ touches.

I think Dallas keeps their foot on the gas pedal and builds momentum going into the last 2 weeks with HUGE divisional games. I just hope they are not looking ahead to those games. Maybe this is more for the wagering thread.

 

[Grahamburn]

Tampa is much better at defending the pass than the run. Save a couple games against Stafford, Rodgers, and Cam (whose points came with his feet), QBs haven't torched them for major fantasy points. No other QB has done better than 21.6 against the Bucs in my 6 points per TD pass league.

ETA: My apologies. Alex Smith hit them for 3 TDs and a 26 point day.

Now, that could be because teams simply run it down their throats. If Dallas/Romo want to they can probably throw on them all day, but I expect Felix to absolutely gash this team. That being said, it wouldn't surprise me at all to see Romo with a workmanlike 300 and 3 day.

 

[Jimbo Slice]

Another romo/tebow owner here! I have NO idea who I'm going to start. Been struggling with it all week and will continue to do so. you can make valid arguments for and against both. Ask me at 7:00 Saturday night

 

[[icon]]

Cowboys have blown 3 games where they had a lead of 12+ points in the 4th quarter this year. I don't think they'll be letting up on the gas if they get a big lead.

Bingo. That plus two devastating losses back to back.... They could use a blowout win for team morale. That throttle stays down.I'm starting Romo over Cam and Stafford.

 

[rickyg]

Man...All great insight guys...although I think im more confused about Romo's week 15 prospects now than when I started the thread! lol

 

[thehornet]

Man...All great insight guys...although I think im more confused about Romo's week 15 prospects now than when I started the thread! lol

um? start him. he's playing one of the worst defenses in football and they have running backs worth squat. felix will be good for a handful of plays before he has a high ankle sprain.

 

[TheFootballJesus]

I'm starting Romo over Cam and Stafford.

Wow. QB surplus.

 

[gianmarco]

Tampa bay offense is absolutely TERRIBLE! It is totally concievable that Romo could blow his load in the first half with a few td's and the dallas defense can keep TB to 6 points all game.

So let me get this straight. You're thinking Dallas could score so many points in the 1st half with Romo throwing "a few TDs", and you want to bench that because it would only take place in one half of football?

 

[[icon]]

I'm starting Romo over Cam and Stafford.

Wow. QB surplus.

Indeed. Some ####### dropped Cam week 1.Had a deal of Stafford for Demarco Murray lined up 2 weeks ago that fell through at the deadline. Thank God.Regardless... back on topic: Romo SHOULD be solid this weekend... unless he has a Romo-plosion which he has done in the past

 

[fightingillini]

Another romo/tebow owner here! I have NO idea who I'm going to start. Been struggling with it all week and will continue to do so. you can make valid arguments for and against both. Ask me at 7:00 Saturday night

Luckily in the league where I have Romo and Tebow, I can start both, and I am Both QBs have very good upside this week, but Romo has a higher floor than Tebow. Barring injury, I can't see Romo going for less than 250/2 this week. I do think Tebow could have a monster game this week, as DEN is going to have to score a lot to keep pace.....no way DEN will slow down Brady that much.Personally, if my team was better than my opponents at the RB-WR-TE positions, I play Romo and protect my advantage. If I am a decent sized dog a the RB-WR-TE positions, then I may choose Tebow and hope for a shootout where Tebow gets multiple TD runs. Only thing that concerns me are the slow starts that are a constant for Tebow. High risk, high reward.In most cases, I would start Romo over Tebow.

 

[rickyg]

Another romo/tebow owner here! I have NO idea who I'm going to start. Been struggling with it all week and will continue to do so. you can make valid arguments for and against both. Ask me at 7:00 Saturday night

Luckily in the league where I have Romo and Tebow, I can start both, and I am Both QBs have very good upside this week, but Romo has a higher floor than Tebow. Barring injury, I can't see Romo going for less than 250/2 this week. I do think Tebow could have a monster game this week, as DEN is going to have to score a lot to keep pace.....no way DEN will slow down Brady that much.Personally, if my team was better than my opponents at the RB-WR-TE positions, I play Romo and protect my advantage. If I am a decent sized dog a the RB-WR-TE positions, then I may choose Tebow and hope for a shootout where Tebow gets multiple TD runs. Only thing that concerns me are the slow starts that are a constant for Tebow. High risk, high reward.In most cases, I would start Romo over Tebow.

So the question is, in week 15 of the fantasy playoffs...do you go with the stud qb with the higher floor or the more unproven qb with the lower floor but potentially higher cieling? Do you play it safe? Or are the fantasy playoffs a time for us to whip out our nutsacks and put em on the table and say "here...look at my big nuts...im starting tebow in a do or die matchup for my playoff life!"

 

[The Jerk]

I think there is a lot of overthinking going on here. There is another way to analyze Tampa Bay's passing numbers. Despite allowing more rushing TDs than any other NFL team this season, the Buccaneers have still managed to allow 22 passing TDs, good for 8th most. Four teams have allowed 23, two teams have allowed 24, and Minnesota has allowed 26.

There are no guarantees here. Romo can have an off day, Dallas receivers can be tackled at the one and/or have multiple end zone pass interferences that set up TD run opportunities, and of course there is always the possibility of injury. However, the simplest approach is to take advantage of a poor Tampa Bay defense on a team that appears disinterested at best, knowing that Dallas should not back off until they have a sizable lead in the fourth quarter.

Even simpler... Tampa Bay has allowed 370 total points, second only to Indianapolis with 382. The Bucs and Colts are tied for most offensive TDs allowed with 41, an average of 3.15 TDs allowed per game. When I see a matchup like this, I prefer to take advantage of it.

 

[footballnerd]

So the question is, in week 15 of the fantasy playoffs...do you go with the stud qb with the higher floor or the more unproven qb with the lower floor but potentially higher cieling?

I think Romo has a higher floor and higher (if not equal) ceiling for this week.

 

[thehornet]

Tampa bay offense is absolutely TERRIBLE! It is totally concievable that Romo could blow his load in the first half with a few td's and the dallas defense can keep TB to 6 points all game.

So let me get this straight. You're thinking Dallas could score so many points in the 1st half with Romo throwing "a few TDs", and you want to bench that because it would only take place in one half of football?

 

[CompetitiveEdgeFootball]

Yeah I mean just my two cents here, but when has Dallas been able to put away ANYONE in the first half this year? Let alone the 2nd half. Think about it.

 

[Mr. Fusion]

Seems like there are a lot of owners who have Cam and Romo and there are reasons to sit/start each of them this week. The only things that scare me about Romo are the porous rushing D of TB and the fact that it's an away game. With Romo, you know he'll get somewhere around 250 yards - it all depends on whether he throws enough TDs to have a big game.

 

[Dez]

Man I sure hope so I am playing against both Romo and Austin in my 2 local league playoff games

 

[Darryl Talley]

They lost to the Cardinals.

 

[glumpy]

Another romo/tebow owner here! I have NO idea who I'm going to start. Been struggling with it all week and will continue to do so. you can make valid arguments for and against both. Ask me at 7:00 Saturday night

Luckily in the league where I have Romo and Tebow, I can start both, and I am Both QBs have very good upside this week, but Romo has a higher floor than Tebow. Barring injury, I can't see Romo going for less than 250/2 this week. I do think Tebow could have a monster game this week, as DEN is going to have to score a lot to keep pace.....no way DEN will slow down Brady that much.Personally, if my team was better than my opponents at the RB-WR-TE positions, I play Romo and protect my advantage. If I am a decent sized dog a the RB-WR-TE positions, then I may choose Tebow and hope for a shootout where Tebow gets multiple TD runs. Only thing that concerns me are the slow starts that are a constant for Tebow. High risk, high reward.In most cases, I would start Romo over Tebow.

Amazing the number of us with that QB combo! I was looking at it the way you are, being behind the 8-ball on RB's and WR's imo, but think the play has got to be Romo anyway. Even in his high scoring win against Minnesota Tebow scored two td's. He's been real consistent but never scored more than that this year. His rushing yards are decreasing as his passing proficiency is increasing and this looks to be a passing game, both because of NE scoring and because of NE defense. I would hope a two td game is Romo's floor this week--it's not as though he's going against a tough pass defense either. And in my case though I'm losing the RB/WR matchup I'm not weak there, plus I've got Gronk.

 

[glumpy]

I think there is a lot of overthinking going on here. There is another way to analyze Tampa Bay's passing numbers. Despite allowing more rushing TDs than any other NFL team this season, the Buccaneers have still managed to allow 22 passing TDs, good for 8th most. Four teams have allowed 23, two teams have allowed 24, and Minnesota has allowed 26.There are no guarantees here. Romo can have an off day, Dallas receivers can be tackled at the one and/or have multiple end zone pass interferences that set up TD run opportunities, and of course there is always the possibility of injury. However, the simplest approach is to take advantage of a poor Tampa Bay defense on a team that appears disinterested at best, knowing that Dallas should not back off until they have a sizable lead in the fourth quarter.Even simpler... Tampa Bay has allowed 370 total points, second only to Indianapolis with 382. The Bucs and Colts are tied for most offensive TDs allowed with 41, an average of 3.15 TDs allowed per game. When I see a matchup like this, I prefer to take advantage of it.

Nice Numbers!!

 

[unckeyherb]

I think 3 tds for romo and close to 300 yards is a pretty good bet. I also wouldn't be surprised if they really let him air it out and run the score up. Garrett's got make some waves as his job is potentially on the line. I'd only be mildly surprised if romo has a 5td day

 

[Ketamine Dreams]

Anyone down on Austin, Bryant, Robinson and Witten?

 

[glumpy]

Anyone down on Austin, Bryant, Robinson and Witten?

As I just mentioned in another thread--I'm scared of Dez, now that Austin is back. He just didn't get the targets last week. Maybe Romo will make sure to target him to make up, maybe they'll score so much everyone hits, maybe he'll go back to the routine where he only gets a couple targets because they save this weapon for the long back-breaking score. No idea. This reminds me of James Jones this year. He's frequently up top of the WR scoring in my league since we count bonuses for length of td--but every time I've looked at picking him up this year I knew I'd have no clue of when to play him. Nobody's picked him up all year. Typical stat line: 2 targets, 1 rcpt, 67 yards, td. In my league that's worth 18.7 pts.eta: just picked up Demaryius Thomas and inserted him in place of Dez. He's actually been top 5 in my league over the past 3 weeks--I was real surprised to see it--dropped my recently acquired Bowe for him given the KC QB uncertainty! That works out real well, since I've got both Romo/Dez and Tebow/Thomas in great looking matchups--hopefully I'll get the critical piece of each.

 

[Max Power]

Anyone down on Austin, Bryant, Robinson and Witten?

I'll be starting Romo, but might be sitting Dez. The guy was a blown coverage away from posting a 0 last week. The biggest problem is that other teams view Dez as the top threat, the Cowboys are more than happy to let Witten/Austin/Robinson beat you

 

[Hoosier16]

Tampa bay offense is absolutely TERRIBLE! It is totally concievable that Romo could blow his load in the first half with a few td's and the dallas defense can keep TB to 6 points all game.

So let me get this straight. You're thinking Dallas could score so many points in the 1st half with Romo throwing "a few TDs", and you want to bench that because it would only take place in one half of football?

I think the fear is that Romo could get yanked early, kind of like how Ryan did on Thursday when he left in the 3rd with only 320 yards and 4 TDs.

 

[unckeyherb]

As a romo owner playing the Rodgers owner

...feel free to Yank him after he hits 300+ and 4tds.

 

[gianmarco]

Tampa bay offense is absolutely TERRIBLE! It is totally concievable that Romo could blow his load in the first half with a few td's and the dallas defense can keep TB to 6 points all game.

So let me get this straight. You're thinking Dallas could score so many points in the 1st half with Romo throwing "a few TDs", and you want to bench that because it would only take place in one half of football?

I think the fear is that Romo could get yanked early, kind of like how Ryan did on Thursday when he left in the 3rd with only 320 yards and 4 TDs.

Yeah, that would suck.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Tampa bay offense is absolutely TERRIBLE! It is totally concievable that Romo could blow his load in the first half with a few td's and the dallas defense can keep TB to 6 points all game.

So let me get this straight. You're thinking Dallas could score so many points in the 1st half with Romo throwing "a few TDs", and you want to bench that because it would only take place in one half of football?

I think the fear is that Romo could get yanked early, kind of like how Ryan did on Thursday when he left in the 3rd with only 320 yards and 4 TDs.

well Ryan only had 220 and 3tds but yeah generally good matchups are good for a reason

 

[solorca]

I could see Felix still getting some easy screen passes even if the game is out of hand, because it's easier to protect him (as their only RB, unless you count the recently signed Sammie Morris) in open space. With that, there is always a chance that Felix breaks a few screens for big plays+points for Romo.

I'll admit though, this is a situation where I am happy with having both sides of the coin (Romo and Felix) on my team. Hopefully it will be a high scoring game for Dallas and everyone will be happy.

 

[Darryl Talley]

Starting Romo and Jones tonight. I'll be happy with 20+10 or vice versa. That's gotta be the floor for this duo tonight.

 

[Mr. Know-It-All]

Tebow wins - but is not going to pile up statistics. Romo will pile up statistics. Romo for 3 quarters against TB is better than Tebow for 1 quarter against New England. Tebow will do little for the first 3 Q, then come alive in the 4th.

 

[Jimbo Slice]

Starting Romo and Jones tonight. I'll be happy with 20+10 or vice versa. That's gotta be the floor for this duo tonight.

x2A combined 40 points and I'll be ecstatic. I'm a heavy favorite as the #4 seed vs the #1 seed (rough season) and I decided to go the "safe" route with romo over tebow. Forgive me for I have sinned.

 

[zandbak]

Bench Romo because he might score too much?

 

[Stryker]

Either Romo or Brady, leaning towards TB

 

[solorca]

Starting Romo and Jones tonight. I'll be happy with 20+10 or vice versa. That's gotta be the floor for this duo tonight.

Right there with you (opponent has Witten). I already played Roddy and the Atlanta D, so I would love to just get decent points from Romo and Felix.

 

[G-King]

Tampa bay offense is absolutely TERRIBLE! It is totally concievable that Romo could blow his load in the first half with a few td's and the dallas defense can keep TB to 6 points all game.

So let me get this straight. You're thinking Dallas could score so many points in the 1st half with Romo throwing "a few TDs", and you want to bench that because it would only take place in one half of football?

Yeah it would suck to be starting Romo at this rate. He will be benched at halftime with 4TD's. Tebowism is an amazing thing.

 

[rickyg]

Tampa bay offense is absolutely TERRIBLE! It is totally concievable that Romo could blow his load in the first half with a few td's and the dallas defense can keep TB to 6 points all game.

So let me get this straight. You're thinking Dallas could score so many points in the 1st half with Romo throwing "a few TDs", and you want to bench that because it would only take place in one half of football?

Yeah it would suck to be starting Romo at this rate. He will be benched at halftime with 4TD's. Tebowism is an amazing thing.

Ok let me set the record straight. I never not even once said I think Romo would have a bad game. My fear was that romo would have a workman like 250 yds and 2 Tds by halftime and dal would have another 2 rushing scores. 2nd half dal would just run the ball down tb throats. That would be a good game but not a great game that you need in the fantasy playoffs from romo. My fear was thy his upside was limited bc of how bad the bucs are. And so far I might still be right! Dal is shutting them out 14-0. If tb doesn't start making this interesting how much more production do we get from romo??A lot I hope bc he is iny starting lineup!