Top 20 WR Rankings For The 2013 Season (1 Viewer)

[Dr. Octopus]

I just re-ran the numbers on Fitzgerald:

In 59 games with Warner at QB, he averaged 14.1 ppg in 0 ppr leagues and 20.7 in 1 ppr leagues.

That equates to 226 FP over 16 games in 0 ppr leagues (which last year would have tied Megatron for the #1 WR).

That also equates to 331 FP over 16 games in 1 ppr leagues (which last year would have ranked 5 points behind Megatron as the #2 wide out).

In 88 games without Warner at QB, he averaged 9.1 ppg in 0 ppr leagues and 13.8 in 1 ppr leagues.

That equates to 146 FP over 16 games in 0 ppr leagues (which last year would have ranked 19th).

That also equates to 221 FP over 16 games in 1 ppr leagues (which last year would have ranked 16th).

Is the contention that Fitzgerald can only put up big numbers with Warner?

I think we need to look at who those other QBs were and how he performed when the QBs were semi-competant at least v. downright horrible. Here are some of the "other" QBs:

Ryan Lindley

Jon Skelton

Kevin Kolb

Brian Hoyer

Richard Bartel

Derek Anderson

Max Hall

Matt Leinart

Brian St. Pierre

I feel pretty confident saying that Carson Palmer will be the second best QB that Fitzpatrick has ever worked with.

In other words what the numbers that Fitz has produced with Warner under center v. what he has produced with that dreck under center may not be all that relevant - unless you think Warner made Fitzpatrick.

My contention is that Warner was a HOF QB. Palmer is a long way from being a HOF QB. Yes, Palmer is the second best QB he ever played with. That doesn't wow me.

Also not being discussed at all is how well Palmer will do in a new system on a new team behind a suspect line. What is the chance Palmer plays 16 games? The recent track record for QBs lasting the entire season is not great.

If Palmer goes down, sadly Drew Stanton may be the third best QB Fitz has ever had in Arizona after Warner and Palmer.

I just don't think we can draw many conclusions about how Fitzpatrick's numbers declined when Warner wasn't under center due to the fact that the next best QB Fitz has played with would become a debate between Kevin Kolb and Derek Anderson. I mean what WRs would have thrived under those circumstances? The fact that he performed as well as he did, outside of last season, speaks volumes about him.

Let's also not forget that Fitzgerald was a big part of Warner resurrecting himself as well. Warner washed out of St. Louis and was horrible with the Giants before landing with Arizona.

 

[Anarchy99]

Fitz performed at a top 10-ish level in 2010-2011 (WR16 in 2010, WR5 in 2011) with awful QBs, and Palmer will be an upgrade on those QBs. So there is every reason to believe that Fitz will again be a top 10 WR this season.

I have already said I see Fitz ending the year in the WR8-14 range with a few points making a difference of a few spots in the rankings. But some folks have him jumping up into the Top 2 or 3, and there could be a lot of fantasy points from that level to where Fitz ranks. In other words, he could end up 50-60 points in 0 ppr leagues behind the elite scorers.

So I think at this point we are debating semantics. I am agreeing in that he will rank way better than WR42 like last year. But I don't think he makes it all the way up to the Top 5.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

My only two complaints would be I think Harvin is a little low. He was off to a terrific start last year until he got hurt. He had what, 60 some catches through the 1st 8 games? Now I don't think he'll catch 120 passes in Seattle this year, but I think he's in the 85-100 range for sure. Yes Seattle is a run offense, but so was Minnesota and Wilson is a much better QB than Ponder.

I also agree with JustinHawkins, that if Garcon plays all season he could easily be a top 15-20 guy. Health is definitely a concern for him, but when he's out there, he'll see plenty of targets his way.

Agreed Nice list and a good read but Harvin was on pace for almost 1400 total yards a 7 tds before getting hurt so he's shown he can be explosive and consistent as he gets his touches and yards every week making him bust proof

I wouldn't describe a receiver who has never posted a thousand yards or more than 6 TDs, playing for a new team that runs more than it throws as "bust-proof". I wouldn't quibble with a high projection, but "bust-proof" is out of the picture for a guy with his resume in his position IMO. He's as bustable as any guy on the list, probably more so than most.

Let's do the research before we post assuming you play in a league that rewards wr's who also rush (as every league almost does) then Harvin had 1200 and 8 in 2011 and was on pace for 110/1400/7 last year, He had 900 and 6 as a rookie too which is pretty good.

Also Seattle is no more prone to run the ball then the Vikings and there is an upgrade in QB play.

My point was that since he will get his touches through the air and through he ground he is a lot less likely to provide you a goose egg then a Vincent Jacskon. Harvin only had one game under 10 points last year.

He may have been on pace for some good production last year, but over the season, he fails to meet expectations. For whatever reason, injury, poor play or just not producing, he seem to fail at reaching those expectations at season end year in and year out. He has had a few good seasons, but his ADP always is higher than his production.

Year 1- NO- How is his ADP always higher then his production. In 8 games started as a rookie he put up a great stat line showing serious potential although he had a migraine issue (ADP first year as a rookie was not high)

Year 2 -NO-higher ADP after we saw him but proceeded to put up wr#1 numbers

Year 3-NO-well maybe- He has drafted as a high end #2 WR in the 4th/5th and many had him pegged as the MVP of the entire league, ive posted what his pace was except for a freak injury.

Your point on rushing production was valid, I should have included that in his stats. Still, there is a ton of risk there. The net production yielded one top 10 performance in 4 years. If you have to start some of your years with "was on pace for", that doesn't count as much as actual results. Also, you mention one game under 10 points last year. Problem is, in standard scoring, he had 3 out of 9 games. I'm sure you threw away his last one where he got injured, but I guarantee you people started him that day. So that's very good, but not amazing.

As for the years, I didn't make the claim he is always over-rated going into the season, but I think it's fair to say he wasn't really outperformed his ADP either all things considered.

Bottom line for me is that while I might buy the argument that he is less likely to totally bomb week-to-week because of his rushing than a lot of guys, his NET production to date does NOT put him in the bust-proof category. There many other receivers on this list that I'd be more willing to do that for for various reasons. He's on a new team. That is ALWAYS an area of concern. He has a history of injury or simply being "questionable" for a lot of games. That's another red flag, at least in terms of being "bust-proof".

 

[Bigboy10182000]

I just re-ran the numbers on Fitzgerald:

In 59 games with Warner at QB, he averaged 14.1 ppg in 0 ppr leagues and 20.7 in 1 ppr leagues.

That equates to 226 FP over 16 games in 0 ppr leagues (which last year would have tied Megatron for the #1 WR).

That also equates to 331 FP over 16 games in 1 ppr leagues (which last year would have ranked 5 points behind Megatron as the #2 wide out).

In 88 games without Warner at QB, he averaged 9.1 ppg in 0 ppr leagues and 13.8 in 1 ppr leagues.

That equates to 146 FP over 16 games in 0 ppr leagues (which last year would have ranked 19th).

That also equates to 221 FP over 16 games in 1 ppr leagues (which last year would have ranked 16th).

Is the contention that Fitzgerald can only put up big numbers with Warner?

I think we need to look at who those other QBs were and how he performed when the QBs were at least semi-competant v. downright horrible. Here are all of the "other" QBs:

Ryan Lindley

Jon Skelton

Kevin Kolb

Brian Hoyer

Richard Bartel

Derek Anderson

Max Hall

Matt Leinart

Brian St. Pierre

I feel pretty confident saying that Carson Palmer will be the second best QB that Fitzpatrick has ever worked with.

In other words what the numbers that Fitz has produced with Warner under center v. what he has produced with that dreck under center may not be all that relevant - unless you think Warner, exclusively, made Fitzgerald.

IMHO it's not the QB. The OL is one of the worst in the league and they have no running game to speak of. Until one of those issues are cured (mainly the OL), It doesnt matter (IMHO) who the QB and HC are.

 

[Biabreakable]

I kind of thought we had this out already but while Palmer may not be a HOF QB and Kurt Warner was a very special QB. Warner only had one season with the Cardinals 2008 where his numbers were perhaps higher than I would be expecting for Palmer. That is just based off of what Palmer has accomplished thus far in his career. With lesser weapons than Fitzgerald to work with although he did have some good WR with the Bengals. The 2008 season for Warner is inflated somewhat because the Cardinals only ran the ball 340 times that season. Warner's 67.1% completion rate on 598pa was truly amazing. I don't think Palmer can quite do that, not many QB could. But Palmer can throw for 4k 20+ TD without Fitz. With Fitz I think that is a lock as long as they can keep Palmer healthy.

In the from the couch podcast with Greg Cosell recently, Cosell talks about how Palmer is/has been widely considered one of the best QB in the league not named Brady, Manning, Brees.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

In the from the couch podcast with Greg Cosell recently, Cosell talks about how Palmer is/has been widely considered one of the best QB in the league not named Brady, Manning, Brees.

That's patently absurd no matter who said it. The best QBs in the NFL don't get traded for essentially nothing (moving up from the 7th - 6th round). Palmer is better than the dog poop AZ trotted out last year at QB, but he's nowhere near good anymore, much less one of the best in the NFL not named Brady, Brees, or Manning.

 

[Biabreakable]

There are a lot of reasons for why Palmer moved on from the Bengals. Most of them have nothing to do with the quality of player that Palmer is.

In fairness the comments were more about how people perceived Palmer in relation to other QBs several years ago moreso than how they view Palmer now. Palmer I think proved he still has it based on how he performed with the Raiders last season.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

There are a lot of reasons for why Palmer moved on from the Bengals. Most of them have nothing to do with the quality of player that Palmer is.

In fairness the comments were more about how people perceived Palmer in relation to other QBs several years ago moreso than how they view

Palmer now. Palmer I think proved he still has it based on how he performed with the Raiders last season.

That is the price the Cards just paid for him. Alex Smith went for a 2013 2nd and a conditional 2014 2nd/3rd roughly at the same time. It doesn't paint a pretty picture as far as how NFL GMs view Palmer's value. At this point, he's bottom of the barrel.

 

[Biabreakable]

Alex Smith is 29 years old while Palmer is 33. Palmer was going to be a free agent if they did not pull off that trade. Palmer forced their hand because they were not willing to pay him $13 million, so they would have cut him.

The Raiders will likely secure a late-round pick for Palmer, for whom they gave up first- and second-round picks in the middle of the 2011 season. Palmer, in turn, will accept a drastic paycut on the $13M he's currently owned for 2013 and become the Cardinals' clear-cut starter. http://www.rotoworld.com/recent/nfl/2550/carson-palmer

Now the Raiders have been a poorly run team (RIP CC) so I do not put that much stock in this as I would other teams, but they gave up 1st and 2nd round picks for Palmer in 2011.

 

[Phenix]

In the from the couch podcast with Greg Cosell recently, Cosell talks about how Palmer is/has been widely considered one of the best QB in the league not named Brady, Manning, Brees.

That's patently absurd no matter who said it. The best QBs in the NFL don't get traded for essentially nothing (moving up from the 7th - 6th round). Palmer is better than the dog poop AZ trotted out last year at QB, but he's nowhere near good anymore, much less one of the best in the NFL not named Brady, Brees, or Manning.

Would people take Harvin over Fitz? I'd like to here the answers as those two seem to be the most talked about?

 

[mphtrilogy]

Nope

I'd take l fitz over harvin, although I like harvin a lot this year...

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

I know it is an unsexy pick, but Stevie Johnson will again finish in the top 20 this year for the 4th year in a row.

I know plenty dislike Kolb but whether it is him or Manuel that is under center it will help Stevie even if it is only a small amount. Having either one of those guys that actually possess an NFL caliber arm could allow Stevie to up his yardage total slightly this year. Stevie is one of the most unique route runners in the game and is open a lot and just needs a QB that can whip the balls into him something that Fitz struggled with. Fitz had to rely on timing far too often and it has hurt Stevie's stats.

Stevie is still going to get 125 plus targets in that offense and his floor of 76 balls 1050 yards and 6 td's is quite safe with some obvious room for improvement.

I am hoping Manuel wins out as I feel he would rely on Stevie as Newton did with Smith in his resurgence year.

 

[Phenix]

My only two complaints would be I think Harvin is a little low. He was off to a terrific start last year until he got hurt. He had what, 60 some catches through the 1st 8 games? Now I don't think he'll catch 120 passes in Seattle this year, but I think he's in the 85-100 range for sure. Yes Seattle is a run offense, but so was Minnesota and Wilson is a much better QB than Ponder.

I also agree with JustinHawkins, that if Garcon plays all season he could easily be a top 15-20 guy. Health is definitely a concern for him, but when he's out there, he'll see plenty of targets his way.

Agreed Nice list and a good read but Harvin was on pace for almost 1400 total yards a 7 tds before getting hurt so he's shown he can be explosive and consistent as he gets his touches and yards every week making him bust proof

I wouldn't describe a receiver who has never posted a thousand yards or more than 6 TDs, playing for a new team that runs more than it throws as "bust-proof". I wouldn't quibble with a high projection, but "bust-proof" is out of the picture for a guy with his resume in his position IMO. He's as bustable as any guy on the list, probably more so than most.

Let's do the research before we post assuming you play in a league that rewards wr's who also rush (as every league almost does) then Harvin had 1200 and 8 in 2011 and was on pace for 110/1400/7 last year, He had 900 and 6 as a rookie too which is pretty good.

Also Seattle is no more prone to run the ball then the Vikings and there is an upgrade in QB play.

My point was that since he will get his touches through the air and through he ground he is a lot less likely to provide you a goose egg then a Vincent Jacskon. Harvin only had one game under 10 points last year.

He may have been on pace for some good production last year, but over the season, he fails to meet expectations. For whatever reason, injury, poor play or just not producing, he seem to fail at reaching those expectations at season end year in and year out. He has had a few good seasons, but his ADP always is higher than his production.

Year 1- NO- How is his ADP always higher then his production. In 8 games started as a rookie he put up a great stat line showing serious potential although he had a migraine issue (ADP first year as a rookie was not high)

Year 2 -NO-higher ADP after we saw him but proceeded to put up wr#1 numbers

Year 3-NO-well maybe- He has drafted as a high end #2 WR in the 4th/5th and many had him pegged as the MVP of the entire league, ive posted what his pace was except for a freak injury.

Problem is, no injury with Harvin is a freek injury. I have to say with this Hip injury he is not only one of the most injury prone players (Ankle, Migraines and Hip) in the league, he is almost undraftable as a top 20 WR as of now. Even if he plays Week 1, I feel safe saying he will not play 16 games.

 

[Tanner9919]

of these players, you could easily swap any of them out for Kenny Britt

Colston, Nelson, Cobb, Welker, Decker, MIKE WALLACE, Nicks.

that is,of course, if you're like me and you believe that this is going to be a banner year for Britt..

Wallace at #12 is a pure fishing IMO..you want him to catch 9 TDs, and the big yardage totals,

but if he couldn't do it well enough to stay on in Pitt with Big Ben, he's not going to do it in Miami with Tannehill..

he's a one-trick pony,a F/A bust...

having 3 Denver Wr's in top 20 is purely a wishfull thinking...I'll give you maybe, maybe two of them, but not 3..

does Antonio Brown slide into the top 20?

Amendola if he stays healthy?

Chris Givens, STL?

R. Randle?nearly every year a guy comes out of nowhere to finish as a top 20 WR..