Top 20 WR Rankings For The 2013 Season (1 Viewer)

[Phenix]

These are my rankings for WR in Redraft PPR leagues, TEs are not too far behind.

#1 Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions (Age 28) Bye: 9

101 catches for 1,610 yards and 13 total TDs

Calvin Johnson is every bit the stud we think he is after breaking Jerry Rice's all-time single season yardage record. Megatron did not come through on the TD side of things however, scoring only five times. He is a beast and Stafford should have a bounce back year. Defenses will now have to account for someone else in Detroit now that Bush arrived, but even if Calvin does not see 204 targets this year, he is still far and away the best wide receiver.

#2 AJ Green, Cincinnati Bengals (Age 25) Bye: 12

96 catches for 1,415 yards and 12 total TDs

A.J. Green scored in nine straight games last season then went cold for three games in a row and only scored once after week 11. Streaks happen, but he is still as consistent as they come. Green put up 10 plus targets in 10 of the 16 games including a monstrous 18 targets during the week 16 game against the Steelers. Even though the Bengals draft Eifert and Benard, the offense is still centered around Green. I also love the fact that it’s an added bonus that we get to watch him during “Hard Knocks” on HBO this year.

#3 Dez Bryant, Dallas Cowboys (Age 25) Bye: 11

95 catches for 1,370 yards and 12 total TDs

Bryant was unstoppable in the later part of last year as he put up 10 scores between weeks 10 and 16. That’s all fine and dandy, but he did only score twice through the first nine weeks of the season. Those types of streaks need to change for him to be the true elite WR we all know he can be. This is Bryant’s team now; Austin is not a threat like he was before. Dez should have no problem duplicating last year, but I think scoring will be more constant and not so top heavy week to week.

#4 Brandon Marshall, Chicago Bears (Age 29) Bye: 8

100 catches for 1,300 yards and 10 total TDs

Marshall is going to catch 100 passes; it’s just how it is. He only caught less than 82 passes his rookie year and caught 100 or more four out of the seven years he has been in the league. Marshall is a PPR monster as he had 118 catches last year and even though there is a new head coach in town, nothing will change this year. After putting up double digit fantasy points every week but week two last year, his consistency earns him a Top 5 ranking and should be drafted as such.

#5 Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals (Age 30) Bye: 9

93 catches for 1,385 yards and 10 total TDs

Don’t call it a comeback, he’s been here for years, and Larry Fitzgerald sure as hell must be thrilled to have a QB again. Last year he saw the likes of John Skelton and Ryan Lindley tossing him the ball, say it together… YUCK! Fitz has Carson Palmer now, and that can only help him bounce back to elite numbers. He has still not had less than 153 targets in any of his last 5 season, so with the amount of opportunity and a QB with a better arm, his reception and yards should be where he is a custom to. A Top 5 WR is where Fitz will belong again, as it feels so wrong leaving him out, and because of a much better system from a Coach who loves to sling it in Bruce Arians.

#6 Demaryius Thomas, Denver Broncos (Age 26) Bye: 9

91 catches for 1,345 yards and 10 total TDs

Now that we saw what DT can do with a real QB, his stock surely has risen. Now that Welker is in town, some people seem to be worried about Thomas’ targets. He may see fewer, but he is still the star receiver and first option in Peyton Manning’s offense. Decker will probably be more affected by Welker then Thomas, but as long as Manning is the QB, all three will see their share of points. I have mentioned consistency a few times so far and Thomas was the model for that last season as he tallied over 13 fantasy points in 13 of his 16 games.

#7 Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons (Age 24) Bye: 6

90 catches for 1,305 yards and 10 total TDs

Julio Jones is catching a lot of hype this year as he enters his third year, and rightfully so as he has unbelievable game breaking potential. He is on the brink of being a Top 5 WR, as he is productive making 79 catches for 1,198 yards with 10 scores last year. Roddy White is still there to take away some looks and so is Gonzo and SJax, but Julio will get his as he scored 5 times between week 12 and 16 when fantasy players need him most. His young QB is a talent and loves looking his way more and more and he may finally outscore Roddy this year, but not by much.

#8 Andre Johnson, Houston Texans (Age 32) Bye: 8

90 catches for 1,320 yards and 9 total TDs

Johnson still has the talent to be an elite WR, some say he lost a step, some have been wrong about players before. This guy is not just any receiver though; he is a freak who keeps himself in shape. Even though he is 32, he still is explosive, just see his overtime TD from last year if you disagree. Johnson has scored only six TDs in the past two seasons, mostly because of his hamstring injury two years ago, but if healthy he will easily surpass six scores this year. Coming off 112 catch season, the offense is not just going to forget about their playmaker no matter how many people think he lost a step. I do not see 112 catches, but 90 catches is more than reasonable, and that equals Top 10 WR in my books.

#9 Roddy White, Atlanta Falcons (Age 32) Bye: 6

89 catches for 1,335 yards and 8 total TDs

Roddy White may not have as many TDs as he has had in the past because of Julio, but he is still a #1 WR in any PPR league. After pulling in 92 catches for 1,351 yards last year, the Falcons still see him as a big factor in this offense, and Ryan has played with him for a while so he will see a lot of opportunities until he no longer has legs. White only scored seven times last year, but that is the area I see him again this year. He is getting a little older and only has a few years left, but this is still a productive WR who has the offense to help hide his age. We already know what a WR2 will do in this offense, so that is why Roddy still fill out the Top 10.

#10 Victor Cruz, New York Giants (Age 26) Bye: 9

84 catches for 1,315 yards and 9 total TDs

Well, I’m glad that stand off is over as it was making my head hurt. Victor Cruz got his deal, now he can focus on playing football and doing his salsa dance during the season. We may not see the same start to this year like Cruz had last season, posting seven scores through his first seven games, but it is not impossible. Eli’s tired arm last year caused his numbers to dip at the end of the season, but Cruz is a playmaker and just needs Eli to throw it to him and he will do the rest, just ask the Redskins.

#11 Vincent Jackson, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Age 30) Bye: 5

80 catches for 1,295 yards and 9 total TDs

This guy normally has a pretty good stat line at the end of the year, but he was very inconsistent on the points. He posted five games with less than 10 points in fantasy production and only scored once in his final six games. VJax has an unstable QB situation with Josh Freeman being very shaky lately, but Jackson is a performer and will have numbers at the end of the year. Just know he may poop the bed every now and then, but it will pay off with a monster game here and there as Jackson also scored more than 22 fantasy points six times last year.

#12 Mike Wallace, Miami Dolphins (Age 27) Bye: 6

77 catches for 1,290 yards and 9 total TDs

Buy, Buy, Buy! No, I’m not singing the lame N’SYNC song, Mike Wallace is about to get back to form. This guy is far going to surpass his projected ADP as the 21st WR taken off the board in the 6th round. WHAT?! Sure, he just went from Big Ben to Ryan Tannehill, but he is the unquestioned #1 WR on a team with a good young QB and lot’s of promise. These numbers are about was he was producing until last year, but he had Grandpa Batch throwing to him, so I’ll give him a pass. Wallace does get to play Buffalo and New York twice, plus they will have to play catch up with New England, so that doesn’t hurt.

#13 Percy Harvin, Seattle Seahawks (Age 25) Bye: 12

75 catches for 1,190 total yards and 8 total TDs

Percy Harvin made a jump from having a guy like Christian Ponder trying to get him the ball to having a more talented Russell Wilson, I’m sure he is alright with that. Harvin catches his share of passes but he has never had over 1,000 yards receiving or six receiving scores in any season. Harvin does get some activity on the ground, but that is why Seattle has Lynch. Seattle did not acquire him and give him a fat deal just to look at him, so they plan to get Harvin involved. If he stays healthy he has a chance to do more with the opportunity he is given with better players around him, but just keep in mind he has never had that explosive season.

#14 Hakeem Nicks, New York Giants (Age 25) Bye: 9

69 catches for 1,180 yards and 9 total TDs

All we can really hope for are that his knee issues are behind him. When Nicks is healthy he sure can put up some points, but he really get’s banged up a lot. Nicks tallied over seven targets in seven of his 12 games, so we know Eli likes to look to him as he still post 100 targets total in 12 games. The end zone has been kind to Nicks as he posted 18 scores combined in the two years prior to last. The elephant in the room is can Nicks stay on the field to produce enough. I normally do not worry about injury or predict it much, but Nicks does scare me. Risk vs. Reward is what I say, but if he plays al 16 and that is how I project, he is easily Top 15 material.

#15 Marques Colston, New Orleans Saints (Age 30) Bye: 7

74 catches for 1,160 yards and 8 total TDs

In his career, Colston is always consistent from year to year, but man he sure is inconsistent on a week to week basis. He has caught over 80 balls in each of his last three seasons and has had over 1,000 yards and 106 targets each year. Colston went scoreless in 9 of his 15 fantasy weeks and only caught over six balls five times. He manages to put up some big games here and there and will do the same this year, but he also put up only 4 games of more than 15 fantasy points. Frustrating to say the least but productive none the less, I just hope you start him on the big weeks, ugh!

#16 Randall Cobb, Green Bay Packers (Age 22) Bye: 4

72 catches for 1,105 yards and 9 total TDs

People say with Jennings gone, Cobb is going to step up into a bigger role. Do people forget Jennings was gone most of last year anyways and Nelson was even hurt some games as well? Cobb made 80 catches and that was for only 954 yards, I expect more yards from 80 catches. Cobb did have eight scores and 132 rush yards to go with it, but this year I think he does more with the same opportunity. He had a terrific reception percentage at 80%, but he only had 104 targets. Cobb makes the most of his chances and he will need to do that this year as Nelson, Jones and Finley are still in town, so there are many mouths that need to be fed.

#17 Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs (Age 25) Bye: 10

76 catches for 1,140 yards and 8 total TDs

Bowe has to be ecstatic that he has a new pass happy coach in Andy Reid in town. Alex Smith may not be the best QB, but he is better than anything Bowe had last year and he sure knows how to make smarter decisions. Bowe is in line to benefit from all the additions to the offense and may be back to WR2 material. Bowe has only had more than seven scores once, and that was when he had his monstrous 15 TD campaign in 2010. We are far removed from that time, but he can reach eight scores no problem. Before last year, Bowe averaged 76 catches for 1,160 yards and 10 scores in his prior two seasons, which seem to be right in line with my predictions for this year.

#18 Eric Decker, Denver Broncos (Age 26) Bye: 9

70 catches for 1,075 yards and 9 total TDs

A lot of people are down on him because of the acquisition of Welker, I am not one of those people. Just because another talent comes in does not mean another is forgotten. Welker may steal some secondary looks from Decker, but the majority of what Welker will see is what Stokley and other slot receivers saw. Don’t forget, Decker scored 13 times last year and isn't a slot receiver anyways. He is a bigger receiver at 6’3”, same height as Thomas and just 11 pounds lighter. A totally different receiver then Welker while still playing the same role as last year. But that type of production is easy to find, let’s just forget about him. Yes, I am mocking the people doubting him. Manning spreads it around like a dirty girl with Herpes and has a successful track record of having three receivers reach 1,000 yards in one season. Happened in 2004 with Harrison, Wayne and Stokley… why won’t there be room for Thomas, Decker and Welker to do it in 2013?

#19 Jordy Nelson, Green Bay Packers (Age 28) Bye: 4

68 catches for 1,095 yards and 9 total TDs

While he has never really been an every year performer, the potential to blow up is there. He is just two seasons removed of catching 1,263 yards and 15 scores. We know he can do it, because he has. In the two games before he hurt himself he had 17 catches on 21 targets, 243 yards and four TDs. After that he really never recovered and couldn’t stay healthy, only receiving 10 targets from week eight, on. Nelson is coming into this season healthy and as the #1 option to start the season, as I see Cobb slowing progressing to take catches away. But Nelson should still be productive as the Packers are another team who can possibly have three 1,000 yard receivers this year.

#20 Wes Welker, Denver Broncos (Age 32) Bye: 9

73 catches for 1,105 yards and 8 total TDs

While the days of Welker catching 100 passes are over, this will still be a good year, it will just be a little pedestrian as far as Welker is concerned. He may not be catching passes from Brady anymore, but having another future Hall of Famer in Peyton Manning is not a bad thing. You have heard me talk about Thomas and Decker above; I think I made my point. Welker is also a little older and learning a new playbook, so a drop in production from where he is a custom to is not farfetched. Still, Denver is going to be an unstoppable team and it will be exciting to watch the likes of three elite receivers’ running amuck with one hell of an elite QB.

Thoughts?

 

[flysack]

I like it except for your Wallace pick. That guy is going to be another in a long line of big free agent busts.

Oh he'll haul in 70+ catches, but his TD numbers will be terrible, like Brandon Marshall in Miami terrible - 3-5 TDs.

Just watch.

Also, the Jets problem isn't defense - it's Mark Sanchez and that offense. Even without Revis they fielded a good D last year that will be more than enough to keep Miami's offense in check. Buffalo may be awful at many things, but they have one of the best young CBs and Free Safeties in the league to (double) cover Wallace. New England is New England.

Lastly, Wallace is a moron. I don't know if that will affect his work on the gridiron, but it can't help adjusting to a new team.

 

[bostonfred]

#6 Demaryius Thomas, Denver Broncos (Age 26) Bye: 9

91 catches for 1,345 yards and 10 total TDs

Now that we saw what DT can do with a real QB, his stock surely has risen. Now that Welker is in town, some people seem to be worried about Thomas’ targets. He may see fewer, but he is still the star receiver and first option in Peyton Manning’s offense. Decker will probably be more affected by Welker then Thomas, but as long as Manning is the QB, all three will see their share of points. I have mentioned consistency a few times so far and Thomas was the model for that last season as he tallied over 13 fantasy points in 13 of his 16 games.

You think he'll see fewer targets, but you still have him getting 91 receptions after a 94 reception season last year. Seems like there should be a bit more of a dropoff than three catches if you see his targets going down. Personally, I thought Manning forced the ball to Thomas a little last year, and he won't have to as much this year. I still like Thomas as a top WR, I just see his receptions dropping into the 80s.

 

[Anarchy99]

Amendola will put up Welker like numbers. Don't see how he's not in the Top 20. Probably 100-110 catches.

As for Denver, I think having 3 great receivers will lower all their totals (while not necessarily bumping up Manning's totals all that much). There's still only one football and you can only throw it so many times.

With regard to Welker, I don't see how he puts ups a 15.1 ypr. So either his catch total is off or his total yardage is off.

 

[bostonfred]

#18 Eric Decker, Denver Broncos (Age 26) Bye: 9

70 catches for 1,075 yards and 9 total TDs

A lot of people are down on him because of the acquisition of Welker, I am not one of those people. Just because another talent comes in does not mean another is forgotten. Welker may steal some secondary looks from Decker, but the majority of what Welker will see is what Stokley and other slot receivers saw. Don’t forget, Decker scored 13 times last year and isn't a slot receiver anyways. He is a bigger receiver at 6’3”, same height as Thomas and just 11 pounds lighter. A totally different receiver then Welker while still playing the same role as last year. But that type of production is easy to find, let’s just forget about him. Yes, I am mocking the people doubting him. Manning spreads it around like a dirty girl with Herpes and has a successful track record of having three receivers reach 1,000 yards in one season. Happened in 2004 with Harrison, Wayne and Stokley… why won’t there be room for Thomas, Decker and Welker to do it in 2013?

#20 Wes Welker, Denver Broncos (Age 32) Bye: 9

73 catches for 1,105 yards and 8 total TDs

While the days of Welker catching 100 passes are over, this will still be a good year, it will just be a little pedestrian as far as Welker is concerned. He may not be catching passes from Brady anymore, but having another future Hall of Famer in Peyton Manning is not a bad thing. You have heard me talk about Thomas and Decker above; I think I made my point. Welker is also a little older and learning a new playbook, so a drop in production from where he is a custom to is not farfetched. Still, Denver is going to be an unstoppable team and it will be exciting to watch the likes of three elite receivers’ running amuck with one hell of an elite QB.

Thoughts?

I also take issue with your Decker and Welker projections. It's hard to picture three receivers getting 235 receptions between them, but not impossible. I'm fine with that. But now you're also projecting that both Welker and Decker will improve on last year's YPC by 25% or more? I think that deserves more explanation than that it will be exciting to watch them run "amuck".

 

[bostonfred]

#15 Marques Colston, New Orleans Saints (Age 30) Bye: 7

74 catches for 1,160 yards and 8 total TDs

#16 Randall Cobb, Green Bay Packers (Age 22) Bye: 4

72 catches for 1,105 yards and 9 total TDs

#17 Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs (Age 25) Bye: 10

76 catches for 1,140 yards and 8 total TDs

#18 Eric Decker, Denver Broncos (Age 26) Bye: 9

70 catches for 1,075 yards and 9 total TDs

#19 Jordy Nelson, Green Bay Packers (Age 28) Bye: 4

68 catches for 1,095 yards and 9 total TDs

#20 Wes Welker, Denver Broncos (Age 32) Bye: 9

73 catches for 1,105 yards and 8 total TDs

This feels like a copout. You have five guys within 5 fantasy points of one another. That's fine, it looks like you played with their career YPC to get there, doing things like I mentioned above, giving Welker and Decker over 15 yards per catch. If you're just trying to backfill numbers into a list you'd already made up in your head, that's fine, but don't post the projections as though you had put a bunch of time into them when other people actually do. If you're making actual projections, then give some explanation, at least for the outlier seasons.

 

[JustinHawkins]

If Garcon plays a full season, I expect him to be in the top 15-20 for sure.

 

[MattFancy]

My only two complaints would be I think Harvin is a little low. He was off to a terrific start last year until he got hurt. He had what, 60 some catches through the 1st 8 games? Now I don't think he'll catch 120 passes in Seattle this year, but I think he's in the 85-100 range for sure. Yes Seattle is a run offense, but so was Minnesota and Wilson is a much better QB than Ponder.

I also agree with JustinHawkins, that if Garcon plays all season he could easily be a top 15-20 guy. Health is definitely a concern for him, but when he's out there, he'll see plenty of targets his way.

 

[Phenix]

#15 Marques Colston, New Orleans Saints (Age 30) Bye: 7

74 catches for 1,160 yards and 8 total TDs

#16 Randall Cobb, Green Bay Packers (Age 22) Bye: 4

72 catches for 1,105 yards and 9 total TDs

#17 Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs (Age 25) Bye: 10

76 catches for 1,140 yards and 8 total TDs

#18 Eric Decker, Denver Broncos (Age 26) Bye: 9

70 catches for 1,075 yards and 9 total TDs

#19 Jordy Nelson, Green Bay Packers (Age 28) Bye: 4

68 catches for 1,095 yards and 9 total TDs

#20 Wes Welker, Denver Broncos (Age 32) Bye: 9

73 catches for 1,105 yards and 8 total TDs

This feels like a copout. You have five guys within 5 fantasy points of one another. That's fine, it looks like you played with their career YPC to get there, doing things like I mentioned above, giving Welker and Decker over 15 yards per catch. If you're just trying to backfill numbers into a list you'd already made up in your head, that's fine, but don't post the projections as though you had put a bunch of time into them when other people actually do. If you're making actual projections, then give some explanation, at least for the outlier seasons.

I have no problem with some thoughts, but if you are going to tell me "how to do" and "what not to do," please show me how it's done by posting your own 20 paragraph report with projections.

But to your last statement... Isn't that what I did, hence the paragraph about each player?

 

[Phenix]

Amendola will put up Welker like numbers. Don't see how he's not in the Top 20. Probably 100-110 catches.

As for Denver, I think having 3 great receivers will lower all their totals (while not necessarily bumping up Manning's totals all that much). There's still only one football and you can only throw it so many times.

With regard to Welker, I don't see how he puts ups a 15.1 ypr. So either his catch total is off or his total yardage is off.

Thanks, glad you are so sure that a guy like Welker can easily be replaced. That chemistry is just so easy to reproduce.

Oh, and if you are so sure Amendola can catch 100-110, why can't I be so sure the Broncos will have 3 high performing receivers?

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Amendola will put up Welker like numbers. Don't see how he's not in the Top 20. Probably 100-110 catches.

As for Denver, I think having 3 great receivers will lower all their totals (while not necessarily bumping up Manning's totals all that much). There's still only one football and you can only throw it so many times.

With regard to Welker, I don't see how he puts ups a 15.1 ypr. So either his catch total is off or his total yardage is off.

Thanks, glad you are so sure that a guy like Welker can easily be replaced. That chemistry is just so easy to reproduce.

Oh, and if you are so sure Amendola can catch 100-110, why can't I be so sure the Broncos will have 3 high performing receivers?

I think you did a nice job. However, you asky for "thoughts" and then get pretty defensive when people offer them. You should welcome the discussion. No ones rankings will be perfect to everyone.

I also agree that Amendola will not just come in and replace Welker so easily. I just don't think he's as good, but he probably will see a good number of targets and be at least borderline top 20 in a ppr league, provided he stays healthy.

I know from other threads Yudkin's counter to those who question Amendola v. Welker so I'm not going to go through the whole argument again - but I wouldn't be so dismissive to some one that does feel that way. Listening to other people's opinions is a good way to learn and perhaps see a point that you overlooked.

 

[Phenix]

Amendola will put up Welker like numbers. Don't see how he's not in the Top 20. Probably 100-110 catches.

As for Denver, I think having 3 great receivers will lower all their totals (while not necessarily bumping up Manning's totals all that much). There's still only one football and you can only throw it so many times.

With regard to Welker, I don't see how he puts ups a 15.1 ypr. So either his catch total is off or his total yardage is off.

Thanks, glad you are so sure that a guy like Welker can easily be replaced. That chemistry is just so easy to reproduce.

Oh, and if you are so sure Amendola can catch 100-110, why can't I be so sure the Broncos will have 3 high performing receivers?

I think you did a nice job. However, you asky for "thoughts" and then get pretty defensive when people offer them. You should welcome the discussion. No ones rankings will be perfect to everyone.

I also agree that Amendola will not just come in and replace Welker so easily. I just don't think he's as good, but he probably will see a good number of targets and be at least borderline top 20 in a ppr league, provided he stays healthy.

I know from other threads Yudkin's counter to those who question Amendola v. Welker so I'm not going to go through the whole argument again - but I wouldn't be so dismissive to some one that does feel that way. Listening to other people's opinions is a good way to learn and perhaps see a point that you overlooked.

This is my 3rd one in a week, so I am open to the discussion take a look at the threads. Notice this is the first one where my work is actually attacked.

I welcome discussion, not rhetoric and hyperbole, it is counter productive and will always start arguments not discussion. I do this to help others, and understand criticism, but don't tell me how I should do something and how I should project.

Thats insulting to ones work, so i will say, post your projections and paragraph about each player then criticise.

Someone basically tells me how my projections should work and says I am copping out, but I should just welcome that thought. LOL

I laugh at people who do not defend themselves to BS, I don't call that discussion, I call that asking to get slammed by the OP.

Also, responding to someones thoughts in a smart ### tone is not defensive, its responding in a smart ### tone, don't get it twisted.

 

[Pipes]

Overall pretty good list. My thoughts...

Too High - Andre Johnson....has only hit 9 TD's once in his career so I don't think at the age of 32 he'll match his career high. He's talented but I think injuries are catching up with him.

Mike Wallace...very talented but I just don't trust Miami quite yet to put him ahead of guys like Harvin and Cobb

Eric Decker...I just don't see 3 WR's from any team in the top 20 so I'm dropping him from the list

Too Low - Randall Cobb...people may argue he's overrated, and he could be, but if he plays the whole season he'll have way more than 74 catches...he had 80 last year and he'll be on the field alot more this year. Rodgers and the Pack love his talent

Missing - Amendola...Brady is still more than capable of 4000 yards and 30 plus TDs and doing the math someone is going to have a chunk of those yards so my money is one Amendola.

T Y Hilton...Yes he had alot of drops last year but this kid is electric. I think he develops a good chemistry with Luck this year and lights it up.

 

[Phenix]

Overall pretty good list. My thoughts...

Too High - Andre Johnson....has only hit 9 TD's once in his career so I don't think at the age of 32 he'll match his career high. He's talented but I think injuries are catching up with him.

Mike Wallace...very talented but I just don't trust Miami quite yet to put him ahead of guys like Harvin and Cobb

Eric Decker...I just don't see 3 WR's from any team in the top 20 so I'm dropping him from the list

Too Low - Randall Cobb...people may argue he's overrated, and he could be, but if he plays the whole season he'll have way more than 74 catches...he had 80 last year and he'll be on the field alot more this year. Rodgers and the Pack love his talent

Missing - Amendola...Brady is still more than capable of 4000 yards and 30 plus TDs and doing the math someone is going to have a chunk of those yards so my money is one Amendola.

T Y Hilton...Yes he had alot of drops last year but this kid is electric. I think he develops a good chemistry with Luck this year and lights it up.

See, this is how discussion is had, shared his thoughts and reason.

Thanks for reading, we will see how it all plays out, but as I say many times, this is the fun in it.

 

[Pipes]

Overall pretty good list. My thoughts...

Too High - Andre Johnson....has only hit 9 TD's once in his career so I don't think at the age of 32 he'll match his career high. He's talented but I think injuries are catching up with him.

Mike Wallace...very talented but I just don't trust Miami quite yet to put him ahead of guys like Harvin and Cobb

Eric Decker...I just don't see 3 WR's from any team in the top 20 so I'm dropping him from the list

Too Low - Randall Cobb...people may argue he's overrated, and he could be, but if he plays the whole season he'll have way more than 74 catches...he had 80 last year and he'll be on the field alot more this year. Rodgers and the Pack love his talent

Missing - Amendola...Brady is still more than capable of 4000 yards and 30 plus TDs and doing the math someone is going to have a chunk of those yards so my money is one Amendola.

T Y Hilton...Yes he had alot of drops last year but this kid is electric. I think he develops a good chemistry with Luck this year and lights it up.

See, this is how discussion is had, shared his thoughts and reason.

Thanks for reading, we will see how it all plays out, but as I say many times, this is the fun in it.

It's a very good list and I think your top 7 is spot on. I just remembered Torrey Smith...I'd like to think he'd crack the top 20 somehow as well.

 

[Phenix]

Overall pretty good list. My thoughts...

Too High - Andre Johnson....has only hit 9 TD's once in his career so I don't think at the age of 32 he'll match his career high. He's talented but I think injuries are catching up with him.

Mike Wallace...very talented but I just don't trust Miami quite yet to put him ahead of guys like Harvin and Cobb

Eric Decker...I just don't see 3 WR's from any team in the top 20 so I'm dropping him from the list

Too Low - Randall Cobb...people may argue he's overrated, and he could be, but if he plays the whole season he'll have way more than 74 catches...he had 80 last year and he'll be on the field alot more this year. Rodgers and the Pack love his talent

Missing - Amendola...Brady is still more than capable of 4000 yards and 30 plus TDs and doing the math someone is going to have a chunk of those yards so my money is one Amendola.

T Y Hilton...Yes he had alot of drops last year but this kid is electric. I think he develops a good chemistry with Luck this year and lights it up.

See, this is how discussion is had, shared his thoughts and reason.

Thanks for reading, we will see how it all plays out, but as I say many times, this is the fun in it.

It's a very good list and I think your top 7 is spot on. I just remembered Torrey Smith...I'd like to think he'd crack the top 20 somehow as well.

I like Torrey and we may see him in the Top 20 as part of the norm for years to come, but he is on the edge of the 20 this year.

 

[Rolling_akg]

Lots of critics.. Just curious, how close was Wayne to making the list? 3 broncos above any colts, another passing offense seems unlikely to me

 

[ol blues]

Thoughtful, but a few suggestions.

Wallace is someone I like very much this season assuming Tannehill's growth continues, but WR1- in a new system is likely too high.

Denver's offense should be great, but shouldn't yield 3 top 20 WRs. You can argue numbers as much as you want, but Manning will throw to his RBs and TEs even in a base 3 wideout set. I agree on Thomas about where you have him, but doubt that either Welker or Decker are top 20.

Amendola if healthy cracks the top 20, more likely top 15.

Fitz is too high. Floyd is very skilled, Roberts is a reasonable slot and Housler should see more targets. Arians should infuse more energy into this offense, but the OLine is still suspect, Palmer is a huge improvement but he ,has diminished skills and this team faces excellent defenses every game in its division. Edge of top 10 perhaps, but not 5.

V. Jackson is an uncertainty for me this season. Williams emergence late last season may be what we should come to expect from this offense. With so little depth at WR and the absence of significant TE targets, both WRs figure to be startable. I'm just not sure that expecting as many boom games from Jackson as your projections do is reasonable.

 

[Phenix]

Lots of critics.. Just curious, how close was Wayne to making the list? 3 broncos above any colts, another passing offense seems unlikely to me

Hilton, Fleener, Allen, DHB and Wayne. Seems simple to assume Wayne would get a bunch of points, but he will be 35 in November and I would bet will not see 194 targets again. All the other guys could steal some of the already targets he was going to lose. Really my whole basis for thought. Luck is a talent, but Arians who was running the offense is gone and that style benefited Wayne a lot. Good thing Fitz has Arians now to get him back to elite levels.

 

[Art Vandalay]

My only two complaints would be I think Harvin is a little low. He was off to a terrific start last year until he got hurt. He had what, 60 some catches through the 1st 8 games? Now I don't think he'll catch 120 passes in Seattle this year, but I think he's in the 85-100 range for sure. Yes Seattle is a run offense, but so was Minnesota and Wilson is a much better QB than Ponder.

I also agree with JustinHawkins, that if Garcon plays all season he could easily be a top 15-20 guy. Health is definitely a concern for him, but when he's out there, he'll see plenty of targets his way.

Agreed Nice list and a good read but Harvin was on pace for almost 1400 total yards a 7 tds before getting hurt so he's shown he can be explosive and consistent as he gets his touches and yards every week making him bust proof

 

[Phenix]

My only two complaints would be I think Harvin is a little low. He was off to a terrific start last year until he got hurt. He had what, 60 some catches through the 1st 8 games? Now I don't think he'll catch 120 passes in Seattle this year, but I think he's in the 85-100 range for sure. Yes Seattle is a run offense, but so was Minnesota and Wilson is a much better QB than Ponder.

I also agree with JustinHawkins, that if Garcon plays all season he could easily be a top 15-20 guy. Health is definitely a concern for him, but when he's out there, he'll see plenty of targets his way.

Agreed Nice list and a good read but Harvin was on pace for almost 1400 total yards a 7 tds before getting hurt so he's shown he can be explosive and consistent as he gets his touches and yards every week making him bust proof

I like Garcon, and agree, but need to see if he can stay healthy.

Harvin I'm just not so sure about.

 

[Warrior]

I don't get the Fitz hype. People act as if Carson Palmer is a good QB...he's not. Is he an upgrade over the garbage they had at QB last year? I'd say slightly...they're going from garbage to well below average. Palmer is washed up.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

WR are probably the toughest position to rank in the 10-20 range as their is a lot of flux from season to season. Once again nice job, but for the puspose of discussion here are a few guys I have in my top 20 that are missing from yours:

Cecil Shorts III: I'd feel safer about him knowing that Henne will get the job over Gabbert, but I think the kid is the real deal. He has great deep speed, but also showed an ability to run good routes and make tough catches. The first four weeks of the season, he'll be the undisputed No. 1 option in the passing game with Blackmon suspended. 85-1,225-8.

Pierre Garcon: Isn't the talent that some of the guys that will finish in the top 20 is, but had a nice size speed combo and has shown tremendous repoire with RGIII when he managed to stay healthy. He's a health risk with his foot still not 100%, but due to that risk you can get him later than where his production will land him. 81-1,115-9

Torrey Smith: He gets labled as a one trick pony - but probably because he excels at that "one trick - but I've seen more to his game than just deep threat ability. With Boldin gone the Ravens will rely on him more this season, and he's been very productive for a player that was considered "raw" entering his third NFL season. 72-1.220-9

Antonio Brown: Another guy that won't wow you with his talent, but is quick and sure handed. He's also the No. 1 option in a good passing system with a QB that can make plays. 83-1,135-7.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I don't get the Fitz hype. People act as if Carson Palmer is a good QB...he's not. Is he an upgrade over the garbage they had at QB last year? I'd say slightly...they're going from garbage to well below average. Palmer is washed up.

Fitz has produced with far worse QBs than Palmer in the past (last season was an outlier and particularly bad QBs). The Bruce Arians system should also be good for his production - Wayne was a beast last season at a far more advanced age.

 

[Anarchy99]

Amendola will put up Welker like numbers. Don't see how he's not in the Top 20. Probably 100-110 catches.

As for Denver, I think having 3 great receivers will lower all their totals (while not necessarily bumping up Manning's totals all that much). There's still only one football and you can only throw it so many times.

With regard to Welker, I don't see how he puts ups a 15.1 ypr. So either his catch total is off or his total yardage is off.

Thanks, glad you are so sure that a guy like Welker can easily be replaced. That chemistry is just so easy to reproduce.

Oh, and if you are so sure Amendola can catch 100-110, why can't I be so sure the Broncos will have 3 high performing receivers?

I outlined in other threads why I felt Amendola will put up similar catch totals as Welker did, so my apologies if you had not looked at those comments in several other threads.

To recap briefly, Troy Brown (who was already in his early 30s and not as skilled) had 90-100 catches playing in the slot for NE before they went nuts offensively. Then Welker came in and put up video game numbers for NE for years. On occasion when Welker was out, Edelman stepped in and put up similar numbers playing out of the slot.

So far this offseason, the only person getting consistent rave reviews is Amendola. From everything that I have seen / heard / read, he has been right where he has supposed to have been on routes, has not missed passes, and has been in total sync with Brady every step of the way. People have commented that he has looked quicker and sharper than Welker did in recent years so far. I am a skeptic, too, so I will believe it when I see it. But things sound great so far.

People also forget (or were not aware) of two things. Like Welker, Amendola also played at Texas Tech . . . and Amendola had a better season as a senior than Welker did. Amendola also has exposure to McDaniels system, as he had a whole preseason and training camp learning the McDaniels system in STL before Amendola suffered a fluke injury in Week 1 that season and ended up on IR. There's a reason why the Pats went after Amendola, and they perceived Amendola could step in and be as productive as a younger version of Welker. They wanted Amendola last year to play WITH Welker, so they obviously wanted him regardless of what happened with Welker.

In terms of building chemistry with Brady and Welker's talent level, etc., Welker did not do much in MIA before coming to NE, yet he seemed to do just fine in his first season with the Pats (112-1175-8). Amendola may not hit those numbers, but I can see him getting 105-1075-6 (and maybe more but that would be tough to bank on). Put another way, if Troy Brown could put up 101-1199-5 with a rookie Tom Brady when the two never really practiced much before that (remember, Brady was a bench player that did not get many reps and Drew Bledsoe was the embedded starter), I do not hesitate to think Amendola could also hit the century mark for catches.

As for Amendola's perception as an injury risk, he's had two of the most bizarre injuries that I have rarely, if ever, heard happen to other players and are extremely unlikely to happen again. I would be way more concerned if he had the standard football related injuries that happen over and over again (pulled hamstrings, high ankle strains, concussions, etc.). How many times do we think he will break an elbow or have a clavicle almost puncture his aorta?

I understand people may think that is the best outcome and a feel good story that may not come to fruition, but I don't see it as being that unreasonable.

 

[Bayhawks]

I don't get the Fitz hype. People act as if Carson Palmer is a good QB

Palmer is MUCH better than the QB play in Arizona from last year:

61% completion rate compared to 55%

7.1 YPA compared to 5.6

1 TD/every 25 attempts compared to 1/55

Assuming Palmer throws 575 passes (conservative, IMO, with Arians as the new HC), we should expect roughly 4000 passing yards, and 23 passing TDs in Arizona this year. Assuming Fitz gets 32% of the yards, and 40% of the TDs (his career averages prior to the abomination of '12), you are looking at 1280 yards and 9 TDs.

That is the "Fitz hype;" he is talented, he just had crap at QB last year. Now that he doesn't have crap at QB, his numbers should improve to his career norms.

 

[Anarchy99]

I don't get the Fitz hype. People act as if Carson Palmer is a good QB...he's not. Is he an upgrade over the garbage they had at QB last year? I'd say slightly...they're going from garbage to well below average. Palmer is washed up.

Fitz has produced with far worse QBs than Palmer in the past (last season was an outlier and particularly bad QBs). The Bruce Arians system should also be good for his production - Wayne was a beast last season at a far more advanced age.

I've outlined in other threads and over the years that Fitz put up historically great numbers playing with Warner. IIRC, he ranked WR2 playing with Warner and WR20 playing without him. Beyond that he has been good, but nowhere near as good. I think Top 5 is a bit of wishful thinking and a reach for Fitz.

I posted this in the Fitz PS thread:

Posted 03 June 2013 - 12:51 PM

Let's look at Fitzgerald's best games.

He's had 9 receptions in a game 18 times . . . 13 times with Warner at QB and once with Leinart, Bartel, McCown, Skelton, and Kolb.

He's had 100+ receiving in a game 38 times . . . 23 times with Warner at QB, 5 times with Skelton, 3 times with Kolb, 2 with Leinart, and once with Bartel, Lindley, and Anderson.

He's had 2 TD or more in a game 15 times . . . 11 times with Warner at QB, 2 with McCown, and once with Skelton and Anderson.

I agree that any other QB that Fitzgerald has played with not been close to as good as Kurt Warner. However, I don't think Carson Palmer is anywhere near as good as Kurt Warner. At this stage of his career, I don't think Palmer has the arm strength he once had, is not particularly mobile, and will play behind an OL that won't offer much pass protection and could get him hit pretty often.

 

[Shutout]

This appears to be a very well-thought out and explained list. Nice work.

My own two cents:

I think Aj Green is a bigger (not big, just big-GER) risk than people are saying right now because he relied so heavily on those TDs and everything I am reading, hearing, etc in Bengal-land is that it will be a bit different in terms of philosophy that included Bernard and Eiffert. Overall, I just don't like to rely on the TDs so heavily. I prefer guys that have love-lock from their QBs and, for that reason I think Dez, Fitz, and maybe even Julio if things evolve in Atlanta as seems reasonable, might be better picks. So I might go

Calvin

Dez

And then its very situational but I think Green, VJAX, Thomas probably all end up in the same 6-9 soup this year.

To Warrior's discussion on Fitz: We all know the talent and pro he is. We know his hands. And we know that for the first time, Fitz is going to be lined up EVERYWHERE. People like to talk about Carson like he died during the offseason but his numbers, even in Oakland, and even with that circus lineup, shows enough to suggest that Fitz+Arians+Carson could easily vault a player who has had multiple top 10 finishes over his career back in to a strong top 8 or so mix.

 

[bostonfred]

#15 Marques Colston, New Orleans Saints (Age 30) Bye: 7

74 catches for 1,160 yards and 8 total TDs

#16 Randall Cobb, Green Bay Packers (Age 22) Bye: 4

72 catches for 1,105 yards and 9 total TDs

#17 Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs (Age 25) Bye: 10

76 catches for 1,140 yards and 8 total TDs

#18 Eric Decker, Denver Broncos (Age 26) Bye: 9

70 catches for 1,075 yards and 9 total TDs

#19 Jordy Nelson, Green Bay Packers (Age 28) Bye: 4

68 catches for 1,095 yards and 9 total TDs

#20 Wes Welker, Denver Broncos (Age 32) Bye: 9

73 catches for 1,105 yards and 8 total TDs

This feels like a copout. You have five guys within 5 fantasy points of one another. That's fine, it looks like you played with their career YPC to get there, doing things like I mentioned above, giving Welker and Decker over 15 yards per catch. If you're just trying to backfill numbers into a list you'd already made up in your head, that's fine, but don't post the projections as though you had put a bunch of time into them when other people actually do. If you're making actual projections, then give some explanation, at least for the outlier seasons.

I have no problem with some thoughts, but if you are going to tell me "how to do" and "what not to do," please show me how it's done by posting your own 20 paragraph report with projections.

But to your last statement... Isn't that what I did, hence the paragraph about each player?

Yes, that's what you did. You posted a short blurb about each player. I'd like to see more of that, and less of the projections, because I don't believe you put in the effort to make good projections. That's fine, by the way. I don't think you need to sit down with a calculator and do formulaic projections. I barely use projections at all, personally - I'm a gut based tiers drafter, but I'll still try to guesstimate how much Bush's receptions or Kaepernick's rushing should move them up or down.As for the paragraph, I appreciate that you took the time to post your rankings, and the time to write a paragraph about each. Some of the stuff was really useful - like Fitzgerald having 153 or more targets for five straight years, or Marshall having 100 receptions in 4 out of 7 years in the league. Those are interesting points.

But some of it is less useful, like the idea that Andre Johnson won't drop off too far, but won't see 112 catches again, so you give him 90. That's a big dropoff. In 2006, 2008, 2009 and 2012, Andre played a full 16 game slate and had 103, 115, 101 and 112 catches, respectively. In the other three seasons, he played 29 games, with 179 catches - which averages out to 99 catches in a 16 game season. Coming off a 112 catch season, it seems like he's a lock for 100 catches - unless you see a reason for him to drop off. You said you don't see him dropping off much, and you have him in your top ten, but that doesn't really match up to your projections, where you have him dropping off by 20% and putting up his worst full season numbers since 2005.

I get that you don't enjoy criticism. But you give as much criticism as anyone on this site, so don't act like it's unfair for someone to talk about your rankings. If you don't want to be criticized, don't post them. Nobody's making you do it. And don't demand that I post my rankings just because you took the time to post yours. I've been here a long time and posted a lot of content. I obviously took the time to read YOUR POST, I responded to it in the discussion thread you created, and instead of responding to any of the things I took the time to say, you got defensive. I've given you honest feedback, what you do with it is up to you.

 

[bostonfred]

I've outlined in other threads and over the years that Fitz put up historically great numbers playing with Warner. IIRC, he ranked WR2 playing with Warner and WR20 playing without him. Beyond that he has been good, but nowhere near as good. I think Top 5 is a bit of wishful thinking and a reach for Fitz.

I posted this in the Fitz PS thread:

Posted 03 June 2013 - 12:51 PM

Let's look at Fitzgerald's best games.

He's had 9 receptions in a game 18 times . . . 13 times with Warner at QB and once with Leinart, Bartel, McCown, Skelton, and Kolb.

He's had 100+ receiving in a game 38 times . . . 23 times with Warner at QB, 5 times with Skelton, 3 times with Kolb, 2 with Leinart, and once with Bartel, Lindley, and Anderson.

He's had 2 TD or more in a game 15 times . . . 11 times with Warner at QB, 2 with McCown, and once with Skelton and Anderson.

I agree that any other QB that Fitzgerald has played with not been close to as good as Kurt Warner. However, I don't think Carson Palmer is anywhere near as good as Kurt Warner. At this stage of his career, I don't think Palmer has the arm strength he once had, is not particularly mobile, and will play behind an OL that won't offer much pass protection and could get him hit pretty often.

Awesome post DY.

Here's something to think about in response:

Kurt Warner 2001 - 4830 yards, 36 TDs, 22 INTs.

Carson Palmer 2007 - 4136 yards, 21 TDs, 20 INTs

Kurt Warner 2002-2003 - played just 7 games, left Rams

Carson Palmer 2008-2011 - injured ACL, came back to post 3970/26/20, attempted to retire from Bengals and is picked up by Raiders midseason

Kurt Warner 2004 - At age 33, in 10 games (9 starts), Warner puts up 2054/6/4 with the Giants

Carson Palmer 2009 - Age 33, in 15 games (15 starts), Palmer puts up 4018/22/14 with the Raiders

Kurt Warner 2005 - At age 34, joins the Cardinals and posts a mediocre 10 games, 2713/11/9. Josh McCown starts the other six games with 1836/9/11. Fitzgerald posts 103/1409/10 in just his second year in the league.

Can Palmer put up 4549 passing yards like the Warner/McCown combo did? Probably not. Is their 20 TDs/20 INTs reasonable? Sure. Maybe a little low, even. Does Fitzgerald have better targets to contend with? Well, Boldin's 102/1402/7 is probably better than anything Roberts and Floyd are doing to put up, and Bryant Johnson was perceived as an emerging talent back then, and put up 40 catches for 432 yards and a touch. Will Roberts and Floyd take more of the pie than 142/1834/8? I'd be surprised. Does he face tougher defenses? Maybe, but the passing rules have gotten easier, too. Which leaves the most important question - is Fitzgerald better or worse at this point in his career than he was in his sophomore season? I'd say he's better - he doesn't seem to have lost a step, he was just struggling with bad quarterbacks.

Add that all up, and while I think your analysis makes sense, there's still room for Fitz to have an outstanding season. He might not get the full 1400/10 that he got in his first year with Warner, but it seems like there's room for him to come close in his first year with Palmer.

 

[Art Vandalay]

This appears to be a very well-thought out and explained list. Nice work.

My own two cents:

I think Aj Green is a bigger (not big, just big-GER) risk than people are saying right now because he relied so heavily on those TDs and everything I am reading, hearing, etc in Bengal-land is that it will be a bit different in terms of philosophy that included Bernard and Eiffert. Overall, I just don't like to rely on the TDs so heavily. I prefer guys that have love-lock from their QBs and, for that reason I think Dez, Fitz, and maybe even Julio if things evolve in Atlanta as seems reasonable, might be better picks. So I might go

Calvin

Dez

And then its very situational but I think Green, VJAX, Thomas probably all end up in the same 6-9 soup this year.

To Warrior's discussion on Fitz: We all know the talent and pro he is. We know his hands. And we know that for the first time, Fitz is going to be lined up EVERYWHERE. People like to talk about Carson like he died during the offseason but his numbers, even in Oakland, and even with that circus lineup, shows enough to suggest that Fitz+Arians+Carson could easily vault a player who has had multiple top 10 finishes over his career back in to a strong top 8 or so mix.

No sure if we are talking about the same AJ Green. Just because his TD production is great its not like James Jones hes had 1400 total yards last year and caught almost 100 balls to go with it

 

[Shutout]

This appears to be a very well-thought out and explained list. Nice work.

My own two cents:

I think Aj Green is a bigger (not big, just big-GER) risk than people are saying right now because he relied so heavily on those TDs and everything I am reading, hearing, etc in Bengal-land is that it will be a bit different in terms of philosophy that included Bernard and Eiffert. Overall, I just don't like to rely on the TDs so heavily. I prefer guys that have love-lock from their QBs and, for that reason I think Dez, Fitz, and maybe even Julio if things evolve in Atlanta as seems reasonable, might be better picks. So I might go

Calvin

Dez

And then its very situational but I think Green, VJAX, Thomas probably all end up in the same 6-9 soup this year.

To Warrior's discussion on Fitz: We all know the talent and pro he is. We know his hands. And we know that for the first time, Fitz is going to be lined up EVERYWHERE. People like to talk about Carson like he died during the offseason but his numbers, even in Oakland, and even with that circus lineup, shows enough to suggest that Fitz+Arians+Carson could easily vault a player who has had multiple top 10 finishes over his career back in to a strong top 8 or so mix.

No sure if we are talking about the same AJ Green. Just because his TD production is great its not like James Jones hes had 1400 total yards last year and caught almost 100 balls to go with it

Just one person's opinion. Yours may vary.

 

[Banger]

This appears to be a very well-thought out and explained list. Nice work.

My own two cents:

I think Aj Green is a bigger (not big, just big-GER) risk than people are saying right now because he relied so heavily on those TDs and everything I am reading, hearing, etc in Bengal-land is that it will be a bit different in terms of philosophy that included Bernard and Eiffert. Overall, I just don't like to rely on the TDs so heavily. I prefer guys that have love-lock from their QBs and, for that reason I think Dez, Fitz, and maybe even Julio if things evolve in Atlanta as seems reasonable, might be better picks. So I might go

Calvin

Dez

And then its very situational but I think Green, VJAX, Thomas probably all end up in the same 6-9 soup this year.

To Warrior's discussion on Fitz: We all know the talent and pro he is. We know his hands. And we know that for the first time, Fitz is going to be lined up EVERYWHERE. People like to talk about Carson like he died during the offseason but his numbers, even in Oakland, and even with that circus lineup, shows enough to suggest that Fitz+Arians+Carson could easily vault a player who has had multiple top 10 finishes over his career back in to a strong top 8 or so mix.

He does have love lock from his QB....Green was 5th in targets/game last year behind CJ, Wayne, Marshall and Welker. I could definitely see Wayne/Welker dropping out this year. Green is TD heavy, target heavy, catch heavy, yard heavy because he's a great receiver. Who is a better redzone target on his team? No one. He might get 9 td's this year, he could get 14...it largely depends on the offense and Dalton. Green is as good as they come.

 

[Tau837]

I've outlined in other threads and over the years that Fitz put up historically great numbers playing with Warner. IIRC, he ranked WR2 playing with Warner and WR20 playing without him. Beyond that he has been good, but nowhere near as good. I think Top 5 is a bit of wishful thinking and a reach for Fitz.

I posted this in the Fitz PS thread:

Posted 03 June 2013 - 12:51 PM

Let's look at Fitzgerald's best games.

He's had 9 receptions in a game 18 times . . . 13 times with Warner at QB and once with Leinart, Bartel, McCown, Skelton, and Kolb.

He's had 100+ receiving in a game 38 times . . . 23 times with Warner at QB, 5 times with Skelton, 3 times with Kolb, 2 with Leinart, and once with Bartel, Lindley, and Anderson.

He's had 2 TD or more in a game 15 times . . . 11 times with Warner at QB, 2 with McCown, and once with Skelton and Anderson.

I agree that any other QB that Fitzgerald has played with not been close to as good as Kurt Warner. However, I don't think Carson Palmer is anywhere near as good as Kurt Warner. At this stage of his career, I don't think Palmer has the arm strength he once had, is not particularly mobile, and will play behind an OL that won't offer much pass protection and could get him hit pretty often.

Awesome post DY.

Here's something to think about in response:

Kurt Warner 2001 - 4830 yards, 36 TDs, 22 INTs.

Carson Palmer 2007 - 4136 yards, 21 TDs, 20 INTs

Kurt Warner 2002-2003 - played just 7 games, left Rams

Carson Palmer 2008-2011 - injured ACL, came back to post 3970/26/20, attempted to retire from Bengals and is picked up by Raiders midseason

Kurt Warner 2004 - At age 33, in 10 games (9 starts), Warner puts up 2054/6/4 with the Giants

Carson Palmer 2009 - Age 33, in 15 games (15 starts), Palmer puts up 4018/22/14 with the Raiders

Kurt Warner 2005 - At age 34, joins the Cardinals and posts a mediocre 10 games, 2713/11/9. Josh McCown starts the other six games with 1836/9/11. Fitzgerald posts 103/1409/10 in just his second year in the league.

Can Palmer put up 4549 passing yards like the Warner/McCown combo did? Probably not. Is their 20 TDs/20 INTs reasonable? Sure. Maybe a little low, even. Does Fitzgerald have better targets to contend with? Well, Boldin's 102/1402/7 is probably better than anything Roberts and Floyd are doing to put up, and Bryant Johnson was perceived as an emerging talent back then, and put up 40 catches for 432 yards and a touch. Will Roberts and Floyd take more of the pie than 142/1834/8? I'd be surprised. Does he face tougher defenses? Maybe, but the passing rules have gotten easier, too. Which leaves the most important question - is Fitzgerald better or worse at this point in his career than he was in his sophomore season? I'd say he's better - he doesn't seem to have lost a step, he was just struggling with bad quarterbacks.

Add that all up, and while I think your analysis makes sense, there's still room for Fitz to have an outstanding season. He might not get the full 1400/10 that he got in his first year with Warner, but it seems like there's room for him to come close in his first year with Palmer.

 

[Anarchy99]

I've outlined in other threads and over the years that Fitz put up historically great numbers playing with Warner. IIRC, he ranked WR2 playing with Warner and WR20 playing without him. Beyond that he has been good, but nowhere near as good. I think Top 5 is a bit of wishful thinking and a reach for Fitz.

I posted this in the Fitz PS thread:

Posted 03 June 2013 - 12:51 PM

Let's look at Fitzgerald's best games.

He's had 9 receptions in a game 18 times . . . 13 times with Warner at QB and once with Leinart, Bartel, McCown, Skelton, and Kolb.

He's had 100+ receiving in a game 38 times . . . 23 times with Warner at QB, 5 times with Skelton, 3 times with Kolb, 2 with Leinart, and once with Bartel, Lindley, and Anderson.

He's had 2 TD or more in a game 15 times . . . 11 times with Warner at QB, 2 with McCown, and once with Skelton and Anderson.

I agree that any other QB that Fitzgerald has played with not been close to as good as Kurt Warner. However, I don't think Carson Palmer is anywhere near as good as Kurt Warner. At this stage of his career, I don't think Palmer has the arm strength he once had, is not particularly mobile, and will play behind an OL that won't offer much pass protection and could get him hit pretty often.

Awesome post DY.

Here's something to think about in response:

Kurt Warner 2001 - 4830 yards, 36 TDs, 22 INTs.

Carson Palmer 2007 - 4136 yards, 21 TDs, 20 INTs

Kurt Warner 2002-2003 - played just 7 games, left Rams

Carson Palmer 2008-2011 - injured ACL, came back to post 3970/26/20, attempted to retire from Bengals and is picked up by Raiders midseason

Kurt Warner 2004 - At age 33, in 10 games (9 starts), Warner puts up 2054/6/4 with the Giants

Carson Palmer 2009 - Age 33, in 15 games (15 starts), Palmer puts up 4018/22/14 with the Raiders

Kurt Warner 2005 - At age 34, joins the Cardinals and posts a mediocre 10 games, 2713/11/9. Josh McCown starts the other six games with 1836/9/11. Fitzgerald posts 103/1409/10 in just his second year in the league.

Can Palmer put up 4549 passing yards like the Warner/McCown combo did? Probably not. Is their 20 TDs/20 INTs reasonable? Sure. Maybe a little low, even. Does Fitzgerald have better targets to contend with? Well, Boldin's 102/1402/7 is probably better than anything Roberts and Floyd are doing to put up, and Bryant Johnson was perceived as an emerging talent back then, and put up 40 catches for 432 yards and a touch. Will Roberts and Floyd take more of the pie than 142/1834/8? I'd be surprised. Does he face tougher defenses? Maybe, but the passing rules have gotten easier, too. Which leaves the most important question - is Fitzgerald better or worse at this point in his career than he was in his sophomore season? I'd say he's better - he doesn't seem to have lost a step, he was just struggling with bad quarterbacks.

Add that all up, and while I think your analysis makes sense, there's still room for Fitz to have an outstanding season. He might not get the full 1400/10 that he got in his first year with Warner, but it seems like there's room for him to come close in his first year with Palmer.

Depending how WR scoring falls this year, I would guess Fitz will produce as a low end WR1 or high end WR2, so WR8-14 overall. Still way better than last year but not as good as the Warner-led teams.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

My only two complaints would be I think Harvin is a little low. He was off to a terrific start last year until he got hurt. He had what, 60 some catches through the 1st 8 games? Now I don't think he'll catch 120 passes in Seattle this year, but I think he's in the 85-100 range for sure. Yes Seattle is a run offense, but so was Minnesota and Wilson is a much better QB than Ponder.

I also agree with JustinHawkins, that if Garcon plays all season he could easily be a top 15-20 guy. Health is definitely a concern for him, but when he's out there, he'll see plenty of targets his way.

Agreed Nice list and a good read but Harvin was on pace for almost 1400 total yards a 7 tds before getting hurt so he's shown he can be explosive and consistent as he gets his touches and yards every week making him bust proof

I wouldn't describe a receiver who has never posted a thousand yards or more than 6 TDs, playing for a new team that runs more than it throws as "bust-proof". I wouldn't quibble with a high projection, but "bust-proof" is out of the picture for a guy with his resume in his position IMO. He's as bustable as any guy on the list, probably more so than most.

 

[Phenix]

I do this to help others, and understand criticism, but don't tell me how I should do something and how I should project.

Not to rain on the parade but these look like a copy and paste job, and has very little helpful info. I will just put my rankings in a list and post them without any rhyme or reason as to why I organized it as such. Should help so many.

Also, you didnt put together positional rankings, you just copy and pasted the WRs ones, so on top of that, your title is misleading.

I have no worries if you post work side by side, that is all. Oh, and his work was a copy and paste job with some adjusting, the team names were not even correct. Seems like that would be something you would notice if you made the list yourself.

 

[Art Vandalay]

My only two complaints would be I think Harvin is a little low. He was off to a terrific start last year until he got hurt. He had what, 60 some catches through the 1st 8 games? Now I don't think he'll catch 120 passes in Seattle this year, but I think he's in the 85-100 range for sure. Yes Seattle is a run offense, but so was Minnesota and Wilson is a much better QB than Ponder.

I also agree with JustinHawkins, that if Garcon plays all season he could easily be a top 15-20 guy. Health is definitely a concern for him, but when he's out there, he'll see plenty of targets his way.

Agreed Nice list and a good read but Harvin was on pace for almost 1400 total yards a 7 tds before getting hurt so he's shown he can be explosive and consistent as he gets his touches and yards every week making him bust proof

I wouldn't describe a receiver who has never posted a thousand yards or more than 6 TDs, playing for a new team that runs more than it throws as "bust-proof". I wouldn't quibble with a high projection, but "bust-proof" is out of the picture for a guy with his resume in his position IMO. He's as bustable as any guy on the list, probably more so than most.

Let's do the research before we post assuming you play in a league that rewards wr's who also rush (as every league almost does) then Harvin had 1200 and 8 in 2011 and was on pace for 110/1400/7 last year, He had 900 and 6 as a rookie too which is pretty good.

Also Seattle is no more prone to run the ball then the Vikings and there is an upgrade in QB play.

My point was that since he will get his touches through the air and through he ground he is a lot less likely to provide you a goose egg then a Vincent Jacskon. Harvin only had one game under 10 points last year.

 

[Phenix]

I've outlined in other threads and over the years that Fitz put up historically great numbers playing with Warner. IIRC, he ranked WR2 playing with Warner and WR20 playing without him. Beyond that he has been good, but nowhere near as good. I think Top 5 is a bit of wishful thinking and a reach for Fitz.

I posted this in the Fitz PS thread:

Posted 03 June 2013 - 12:51 PM

Let's look at Fitzgerald's best games.

He's had 9 receptions in a game 18 times . . . 13 times with Warner at QB and once with Leinart, Bartel, McCown, Skelton, and Kolb.

He's had 100+ receiving in a game 38 times . . . 23 times with Warner at QB, 5 times with Skelton, 3 times with Kolb, 2 with Leinart, and once with Bartel, Lindley, and Anderson.

He's had 2 TD or more in a game 15 times . . . 11 times with Warner at QB, 2 with McCown, and once with Skelton and Anderson.

I agree that any other QB that Fitzgerald has played with not been close to as good as Kurt Warner. However, I don't think Carson Palmer is anywhere near as good as Kurt Warner. At this stage of his career, I don't think Palmer has the arm strength he once had, is not particularly mobile, and will play behind an OL that won't offer much pass protection and could get him hit pretty often.

Awesome post DY.

Here's something to think about in response:

Kurt Warner 2001 - 4830 yards, 36 TDs, 22 INTs.

Carson Palmer 2007 - 4136 yards, 21 TDs, 20 INTs

Kurt Warner 2002-2003 - played just 7 games, left Rams

Carson Palmer 2008-2011 - injured ACL, came back to post 3970/26/20, attempted to retire from Bengals and is picked up by Raiders midseason

Kurt Warner 2004 - At age 33, in 10 games (9 starts), Warner puts up 2054/6/4 with the Giants

Carson Palmer 2009 - Age 33, in 15 games (15 starts), Palmer puts up 4018/22/14 with the Raiders

Kurt Warner 2005 - At age 34, joins the Cardinals and posts a mediocre 10 games, 2713/11/9. Josh McCown starts the other six games with 1836/9/11. Fitzgerald posts 103/1409/10 in just his second year in the league.

Can Palmer put up 4549 passing yards like the Warner/McCown combo did? Probably not. Is their 20 TDs/20 INTs reasonable? Sure. Maybe a little low, even. Does Fitzgerald have better targets to contend with? Well, Boldin's 102/1402/7 is probably better than anything Roberts and Floyd are doing to put up, and Bryant Johnson was perceived as an emerging talent back then, and put up 40 catches for 432 yards and a touch. Will Roberts and Floyd take more of the pie than 142/1834/8? I'd be surprised. Does he face tougher defenses? Maybe, but the passing rules have gotten easier, too. Which leaves the most important question - is Fitzgerald better or worse at this point in his career than he was in his sophomore season? I'd say he's better - he doesn't seem to have lost a step, he was just struggling with bad quarterbacks.

Add that all up, and while I think your analysis makes sense, there's still room for Fitz to have an outstanding season. He might not get the full 1400/10 that he got in his first year with Warner, but it seems like there's room for him to come close in his first year with Palmer.

Incredible info David.

 

[Phenix]

My only two complaints would be I think Harvin is a little low. He was off to a terrific start last year until he got hurt. He had what, 60 some catches through the 1st 8 games? Now I don't think he'll catch 120 passes in Seattle this year, but I think he's in the 85-100 range for sure. Yes Seattle is a run offense, but so was Minnesota and Wilson is a much better QB than Ponder.

I also agree with JustinHawkins, that if Garcon plays all season he could easily be a top 15-20 guy. Health is definitely a concern for him, but when he's out there, he'll see plenty of targets his way.

Agreed Nice list and a good read but Harvin was on pace for almost 1400 total yards a 7 tds before getting hurt so he's shown he can be explosive and consistent as he gets his touches and yards every week making him bust proof

I wouldn't describe a receiver who has never posted a thousand yards or more than 6 TDs, playing for a new team that runs more than it throws as "bust-proof". I wouldn't quibble with a high projection, but "bust-proof" is out of the picture for a guy with his resume in his position IMO. He's as bustable as any guy on the list, probably more so than most.

Let's do the research before we post assuming you play in a league that rewards wr's who also rush (as every league almost does) then Harvin had 1200 and 8 in 2011 and was on pace for 110/1400/7 last year, He had 900 and 6 as a rookie too which is pretty good.

Also Seattle is no more prone to run the ball then the Vikings and there is an upgrade in QB play.

My point was that since he will get his touches through the air and through he ground he is a lot less likely to provide you a goose egg then a Vincent Jacskon. Harvin only had one game under 10 points last year.

He may have been on pace for some good production last year, but over the season, he fails to meet expectations. For whatever reason, injury, poor play or just not producing, he seem to fail at reaching those expectations at season end year in and year out. He has had a few good seasons, but his ADP always is higher than his production.

 

[Art Vandalay]

My only two complaints would be I think Harvin is a little low. He was off to a terrific start last year until he got hurt. He had what, 60 some catches through the 1st 8 games? Now I don't think he'll catch 120 passes in Seattle this year, but I think he's in the 85-100 range for sure. Yes Seattle is a run offense, but so was Minnesota and Wilson is a much better QB than Ponder.

I also agree with JustinHawkins, that if Garcon plays all season he could easily be a top 15-20 guy. Health is definitely a concern for him, but when he's out there, he'll see plenty of targets his way.

Agreed Nice list and a good read but Harvin was on pace for almost 1400 total yards a 7 tds before getting hurt so he's shown he can be explosive and consistent as he gets his touches and yards every week making him bust proof

I wouldn't describe a receiver who has never posted a thousand yards or more than 6 TDs, playing for a new team that runs more than it throws as "bust-proof". I wouldn't quibble with a high projection, but "bust-proof" is out of the picture for a guy with his resume in his position IMO. He's as bustable as any guy on the list, probably more so than most.

Let's do the research before we post assuming you play in a league that rewards wr's who also rush (as every league almost does) then Harvin had 1200 and 8 in 2011 and was on pace for 110/1400/7 last year, He had 900 and 6 as a rookie too which is pretty good.

Also Seattle is no more prone to run the ball then the Vikings and there is an upgrade in QB play.

My point was that since he will get his touches through the air and through he ground he is a lot less likely to provide you a goose egg then a Vincent Jacskon. Harvin only had one game under 10 points last year.

He may have been on pace for some good production last year, but over the season, he fails to meet expectations. For whatever reason, injury, poor play or just not producing, he seem to fail at reaching those expectations at season end year in and year out. He has had a few good seasons, but his ADP always is higher than his production.

Year 1- NO- How is his ADP always higher then his production. In 8 games started as a rookie he put up a great stat line showing serious potential although he had a migraine issue (ADP first year as a rookie was not high)

Year 2 -NO-higher ADP after we saw him but proceeded to put up wr#1 numbers

Year 3-NO-well maybe- He has drafted as a high end #2 WR in the 4th/5th and many had him pegged as the MVP of the entire league, ive posted what his pace was except for a freak injury.

 

[Phenix]

I have no worries if you post work side by side, that is all. Oh, and his work was a copy and paste job with some adjusting, the team names were not even correct. Seems like that would be something you would notice if you made the list yourself.

The point was that you've gone on record to say that people shouldn't tell you how to do something, but apparently you have no issue with doing it to others. It made me laugh.

Regardless, good overall list. I know you're handicapping a Garcon injury, but if he is able to stay healthy I think he's a top 10 WR. I'd just ask why Nicks isn't also subject to the same injury deduction.

I think Nicks is a better overall WR, and I own Garcon in a few leagues so I am a fan.

ETA: And my point with him is that I think he did not do any work, just copy and pasted. Point above is he was telling me how I need to reach my projections. Heck I wish the other guy would of did projections, at least that would have been some work.

 

[Anarchy99]

I just re-ran the numbers on Fitzgerald:

In 59 games with Warner at QB, he averaged 14.1 ppg in 0 ppr leagues and 20.7 in 1 ppr leagues.

That equates to 226 FP over 16 games in 0 ppr leagues (which last year would have tied Megatron for the #1 WR).

That also equates to 331 FP over 16 games in 1 ppr leagues (which last year would have ranked 5 points behind Megatron as the #2 wide out).

In 88 games without Warner at QB, he averaged 9.1 ppg in 0 ppr leagues and 13.8 in 1 ppr leagues.

That equates to 146 FP over 16 games in 0 ppr leagues (which last year would have ranked 19th).

That also equates to 221 FP over 16 games in 1 ppr leagues (which last year would have ranked 16th).

 

[mphtrilogy]

agreed on amendola and shorts, with torrey peaking into the top 20 especially with boldin gone, he will be the new go to guy for flacco deep and over the middle me thinks..

cecil will continue to get no respect due to that horrendous passing situation, but the guy was money at the end of last year and won some guys a trip to the playoffs or a crown as a deep waiver wire guy. I like him again this year...

I love LFitz, but I do think Floyd will be grabbing some attention, I think he will be top 15, but I dont think he crakcs the top 5...

I think Wallace will not be a top 20, I am staying clear...

I am also staying clear of AndreJ, I dont see him top 10, but will gladly have him on my team if he drops low enough..

I love AJ green, and dont think you can go wrong picking him 2nd after CJ...

good list though...

 

[Tau837]

I just re-ran the numbers on Fitzgerald:

In 59 games with Warner at QB, he averaged 14.1 ppg in 0 ppr leagues and 20.7 in 1 ppr leagues.

That equates to 226 FP over 16 games in 0 ppr leagues (which last year would have tied Megatron for the #1 WR).

That also equates to 331 FP over 16 games in 1 ppr leagues (which last year would have ranked 5 points behind Megatron as the #2 wide out).

In 88 games without Warner at QB, he averaged 9.1 ppg in 0 ppr leagues and 13.8 in 1 ppr leagues.

That equates to 146 FP over 16 games in 0 ppr leagues (which last year would have ranked 19th).

That also equates to 221 FP over 16 games in 1 ppr leagues (which last year would have ranked 16th).

How about if you exclude last season from the second sample? Last season was clearly an outlier in terms of poor QB play, and it substantially drags down his overall numbers in the second sample.

For example, look at just the past 3 seasons.

2010-2011: 10.6 ppg (0 ppr) and 15.9 ppg (1 ppr), despite playing with these QBs: Kevin Kolb, Derek Anderson, John Skelton, Max Hall, and Richard Bartel.

2012: 6.5 ppg (0 ppr) and 10.9 ppg (1 ppr)

Your second sample is severely skewed by last season. Most importantly, Palmer is an upgrade over all of the QBs Fitz has played with since Warner. That combined with Arians should be enough to get him safely into the top 10 if Palmer and Fitz both stay healthy.

I think this all began with you contending that he is unlikely to finish in the top 5, and I agree with that. But I think the numbers you are showing have no real predictive value, because the situation is vastly improved compared to last year.

 

[Anarchy99]

I just re-ran the numbers on Fitzgerald:

In 59 games with Warner at QB, he averaged 14.1 ppg in 0 ppr leagues and 20.7 in 1 ppr leagues.

That equates to 226 FP over 16 games in 0 ppr leagues (which last year would have tied Megatron for the #1 WR).

That also equates to 331 FP over 16 games in 1 ppr leagues (which last year would have ranked 5 points behind Megatron as the #2 wide out).

In 88 games without Warner at QB, he averaged 9.1 ppg in 0 ppr leagues and 13.8 in 1 ppr leagues.

That equates to 146 FP over 16 games in 0 ppr leagues (which last year would have ranked 19th).

That also equates to 221 FP over 16 games in 1 ppr leagues (which last year would have ranked 16th).

How about if you exclude last season from the second sample? Last season was clearly an outlier in terms of poor QB play, and it substantially drags down his overall numbers in the second sample.

For example, look at just the past 3 seasons.

2010-2011: 10.6 ppg (0 ppr) and 15.9 ppg (1 ppr), despite playing with these QBs: Kevin Kolb, Derek Anderson, John Skelton, Max Hall, and Richard Bartel.

2012: 6.5 ppg (0 ppr) and 10.9 ppg (1 ppr)

Your second sample is severely skewed by last season. Most importantly, Palmer is an upgrade over all of the QBs Fitz has played with since Warner. That combined with Arians should be enough to get him safely into the top 10 if Palmer and Fitz both stay healthy.

I think this all began with you contending that he is unlikely to finish in the top 5, and I agree with that. But I think the numbers you are showing have no real predictive value, because the situation is vastly improved compared to last year.

I think you are looking at my side of this the wrong way. I am not trying to reverse engineer my position by then seeking out the numbers. I sought out the numbers a few years ago when Warner was retiring to make a case that Fitzgerald would struggle without Warner, as he had lower production without Warner playing even then. And we've seen that play out.

But since you asked, excluding all 2012 numbers for Fitzgerald, he averaged 9.7 fantasy ppg in 0 ppr leagues and 14.5 fantasy ppg in 1 ppr leagues without Warner. Sure, Palmer is an upgrade over the dreck they sent out at QB last year. But I think Palmer at this stage is an average NFL QB. Warner was a HOF QB. Big difference. Fitzgerald should do better than last year, but I think his numbers will fall closer to the "non-Warner" ones than the "with Warner" ones.

I still am concerned about the OL and pass protection for Palmer, as that's part of the reason the Cardinals had a revolving door at QB last year.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I just re-ran the numbers on Fitzgerald:

In 59 games with Warner at QB, he averaged 14.1 ppg in 0 ppr leagues and 20.7 in 1 ppr leagues.

That equates to 226 FP over 16 games in 0 ppr leagues (which last year would have tied Megatron for the #1 WR).

That also equates to 331 FP over 16 games in 1 ppr leagues (which last year would have ranked 5 points behind Megatron as the #2 wide out).

In 88 games without Warner at QB, he averaged 9.1 ppg in 0 ppr leagues and 13.8 in 1 ppr leagues.

That equates to 146 FP over 16 games in 0 ppr leagues (which last year would have ranked 19th).

That also equates to 221 FP over 16 games in 1 ppr leagues (which last year would have ranked 16th).

Is the contention that Fitzgerald can only put up big numbers with Warner?

I think we need to look at who those other QBs were and how he performed when the QBs were at least semi-competant v. downright horrible. Here are all of the "other" QBs:

Ryan Lindley

Jon Skelton

Kevin Kolb

Brian Hoyer

Richard Bartel

Derek Anderson

Max Hall

Matt Leinart

Brian St. Pierre

I feel pretty confident saying that Carson Palmer will be the second best QB that Fitzpatrick has ever worked with.

In other words what the numbers that Fitz has produced with Warner under center v. what he has produced with that dreck under center may not be all that relevant - unless you think Warner, exclusively, made Fitzgerald.

 

[Anarchy99]

I just re-ran the numbers on Fitzgerald:

In 59 games with Warner at QB, he averaged 14.1 ppg in 0 ppr leagues and 20.7 in 1 ppr leagues.

That equates to 226 FP over 16 games in 0 ppr leagues (which last year would have tied Megatron for the #1 WR).

That also equates to 331 FP over 16 games in 1 ppr leagues (which last year would have ranked 5 points behind Megatron as the #2 wide out).

In 88 games without Warner at QB, he averaged 9.1 ppg in 0 ppr leagues and 13.8 in 1 ppr leagues.

That equates to 146 FP over 16 games in 0 ppr leagues (which last year would have ranked 19th).

That also equates to 221 FP over 16 games in 1 ppr leagues (which last year would have ranked 16th).

Is the contention that Fitzgerald can only put up big numbers with Warner?

I think we need to look at who those other QBs were and how he performed when the QBs were semi-competant at least v. downright horrible. Here are some of the "other" QBs:

Ryan Lindley

Jon Skelton

Kevin Kolb

Brian Hoyer

Richard Bartel

Derek Anderson

Max Hall

Matt Leinart

Brian St. Pierre

I feel pretty confident saying that Carson Palmer will be the second best QB that Fitzpatrick has ever worked with.

In other words what the numbers that Fitz has produced with Warner under center v. what he has produced with that dreck under center may not be all that relevant - unless you think Warner made Fitzpatrick.

My contention is that Warner was a HOF QB. Palmer is a long way from being a HOF QB. Yes, Palmer is the second best QB he ever played with. That doesn't wow me.

Also not being discussed at all is how well Palmer will do in a new system on a new team behind a suspect line. What is the chance Palmer plays 16 games? The recent track record for QBs lasting the entire season is not great.

 

[mphtrilogy]

just listened to the latest on the couch with greg cosell, he had some nice things to say about palmer, playing 70% of his snaps from behind last year and in 500 attempts only tossed 14 ints..

made me pause and think twice this year about him, he could be a prime nuggett to stash on the bench and save your qb's

I dont think it can be overestimated how bad the arizona qbs were.. palmer is at least an nfl qb, i do think lfitz gets a massive bump, but still think hes outside the top 10, but floyd becomes a very very nice guy to look at this year...

 

[Tau837]

I just re-ran the numbers on Fitzgerald:

In 59 games with Warner at QB, he averaged 14.1 ppg in 0 ppr leagues and 20.7 in 1 ppr leagues.

That equates to 226 FP over 16 games in 0 ppr leagues (which last year would have tied Megatron for the #1 WR).

That also equates to 331 FP over 16 games in 1 ppr leagues (which last year would have ranked 5 points behind Megatron as the #2 wide out).

In 88 games without Warner at QB, he averaged 9.1 ppg in 0 ppr leagues and 13.8 in 1 ppr leagues.

That equates to 146 FP over 16 games in 0 ppr leagues (which last year would have ranked 19th).

That also equates to 221 FP over 16 games in 1 ppr leagues (which last year would have ranked 16th).

How about if you exclude last season from the second sample? Last season was clearly an outlier in terms of poor QB play, and it substantially drags down his overall numbers in the second sample.

For example, look at just the past 3 seasons.

2010-2011: 10.6 ppg (0 ppr) and 15.9 ppg (1 ppr), despite playing with these QBs: Kevin Kolb, Derek Anderson, John Skelton, Max Hall, and Richard Bartel.

2012: 6.5 ppg (0 ppr) and 10.9 ppg (1 ppr)

Your second sample is severely skewed by last season. Most importantly, Palmer is an upgrade over all of the QBs Fitz has played with since Warner. That combined with Arians should be enough to get him safely into the top 10 if Palmer and Fitz both stay healthy.

I think this all began with you contending that he is unlikely to finish in the top 5, and I agree with that. But I think the numbers you are showing have no real predictive value, because the situation is vastly improved compared to last year.

I think you are looking at my side of this the wrong way. I am not trying to reverse engineer my position by then seeking out the numbers. I sought out the numbers a few years ago when Warner was retiring to make a case that Fitzgerald would struggle without Warner, as he had lower production without Warner playing even then. And we've seen that play out.

But since you asked, excluding all 2012 numbers for Fitzgerald, he averaged 9.7 fantasy ppg in 0 ppr leagues and 14.5 fantasy ppg in 1 ppr leagues without Warner. Sure, Palmer is an upgrade over the dreck they sent out at QB last year. But I think Palmer at this stage is an average NFL QB. Warner was a HOF QB. Big difference. Fitzgerald should do better than last year, but I think his numbers will fall closer to the "non-Warner" ones than the "with Warner" ones.

I still am concerned about the OL and pass protection for Palmer, as that's part of the reason the Cardinals had a revolving door at QB last year.

I wasn't suggesting you were reverse engineering your position. I was merely attempting to point out that last year was an outlier that skewed the non-Warner sample. I don't believe including last year is particularly relevant when projecting Fitz for 2013, so IMO the comparison of the two samples you presented wasn't useful.

Fitz performed at a top 10-ish level in 2010-2011 (WR16 in 2010, WR5 in 2011) with awful QBs, and Palmer will be an upgrade on those QBs. So there is every reason to believe that Fitz will again be a top 10 WR this season.