Top 5 Running Backs in 3 years (1 Viewer)

[fruity pebbles]

With RB's having such a short shelf life anyone who is over 25 at this time will not be in my top five 3 years from now, i won't rank a 28+ yr old in my top 5.1)AD2)J-Stew3)Lynch4)D.Murray5)Beanie Wells

where do you have Lt ranked at 29

 

[biggamer3]

Marion Barber has to be on this list

 

[fruity pebbles]

Marion Barber has to be on this list

Not if you think his bruising style will lead to a shortened career.

 

[gman74]

If this is already a topic...sorry. I did a search and couldnt find anywhere.This topic always is always of interest to me because Running Backs come and go so quickly and the best RB's can change from year to year. Last year alone Alexander and LJ were top 5 picks, if not top 10. This year LJ is barley hanging on, and SA is a FA. My top 5 is based on pure talent, not what team they play on. No particular order.Gore: I think he will still be producing monster rushing and receiver numbers in a few years. He can wiggle inside and burst outside too. Considering he will still be in his prime 3 years from now. Stewart: This guy is built for success in the NFL. Big, shifty, fast and young. I fully expect him to be a workhorse back as soon as 09. Steven Jackson: So versatile and a smart Running back too. He is only going to get better. Hopefully he can shake the injury bug of last year. MJD: Little Westbrook. I think this guy is great. Everyone here talks about him as the little bowling ball and i couldnt agree more. This will be his year one way or another (I hope) because i really want to see what hecan do with 20+ a game. AP: Other world talent. What do you guys think? I like to read others opinions on this because there is some great talent right here in the pool.

Gore over Addai,Lynch,Barber,Mcfadden just to name a few

 

[EBF]

Lots of love for Beanie. Not sure he's even the best back in the 2009 class, let alone a future top 5 NFL runner.

It's futile to speculate about something like this. Some guys will get injured and some guys will emerge from the freshman and sophomore NCAA ranks. That said, I'll take a stab at it just for kicks:

Maurice Jones-Drew

Jonathan Stewart

Adrian Peterson

DeAnthony Curtis (Arkansas)

Marshawn Lynch

I also still think Reggie Bush has a chance to become an elite player despite his slow start and his shortcomings. He needs the right situation like Tiki.

 

[biggamer3]

Marion Barber has to be on this list

Not if you think his bruising style will lead to a shortened career.

He is 25 not 29 like other backs who declined rapidly

 

[Ilov80s]

a lot of Wells fans in here!

like i said, i dont watch much college football. I know Wells is great for OSU, but didnt realize how well he projects for the NFL.

This is what some say about him:

(i pulled the following off of a site's scouting report - i hope thats ok)

Chris Wells

Strengths: Outstanding size with great bulk in upper and lower bodies ... Dominantly powerful ... Shakes off the first hit in the open field like it's nothing ... Textbook stiff arm ... Nice second gear ... A game-breaker despite being a bigger back ... Solid vision to cut back into running lanes ... Instinctive runner ... Has nice speed turning the corner ... Keeps shoulders square to the line of scrimmage in approach ... Extremely productive back and has a lot of upside ... Durable ... Hasn't been overworked for multiple seasons.

Weaknesses: Very questionable hands out of the backfield ... Doesn't hit the hole very hard and running lanes do close on him sometimes because of this ... Doesn't put much effort into pass protection and lacks awareness in this area.

Summary: Beanie Wells is kind of back who can carry a franchise ... He's an elite talent - very near to the same grade I gave Adrian Peterson ... Dominant player who could fall a bit in the NFL Draft because the demand for running backs in the NFL is extremely low.

Player Comparison: Bo Jackson. Beanie is very similar to Bo from a size and athletic standpoint. Both were extremely powerful runners who punished opponents. I know this is a bit of a stretch, but it's hard to find players to compare Wells to from a size, speed, and style standpoint at his position. It's simply rare.

I like Beanie Wells a lot. But anyone who compares him athletically to Bo Jax is just plain off the mark, totally. Bo Jackson is arguably the greatest athlete of the past 50 years, if not of all time. Stop with that comparison, immediately........

Speaking of being just plain off the mark. Bo averaged 73 yards per game and in 4 seasons only managed 16 TDs. As for baseball, his career BA was .250 and was always amongst the league leaders in strikeouts. Bo is the not the greatest athlete of the last 50 years and certainly not the greatest athlete of all time.Back to topic:

1. AD

2. Beanie Wells

3. JStewart

4. Gore

5. CJ Spiller

 

[Ilov80s]

1. chris BEANNIE wells

far drop off after wells. and i have no doubt about this. anyone thats seen him would have to agree! Jimmy Brown re visited! No doubt in my mind!

2. AND 3 too early to tell. We only seen STEWERT once aginst a back up d but I liked what I saw.

Stewert

3. McFadden Oakland will get that offense rolling one of these years!

4. Brown he was best back last year before injury. Miami will rebuild that line.

5.AP if if he can stay healthy and thats a big if!

What year is Wells in college? Is he expected to declare for the'09 draft?

Guy has a sick stiff arm. Check out the run at about 4:05.

6-1 237 per ESPN

 

[FUBAR]

Its probably also the equivalent to guessing who is going to finish as the top 5 FF backs in 2008, but we still do it. If you want something that involves only sure things, you need a new hobby.

At least I know who the names of the guys that are going to be on the list. No one knows who is going to be in the top 5. I would love to wager that no one will can predict 2 of the 5 in three years but no way I'm gonna remember that bet 3 years from now. WAAAAYYYYYY too many variable to try to predict this. But hey, good luck fellas. It is interesting to hear about some of the kids coming out as I don't watch a ton of College football, but that's the only intriguing thing I see here....

Maybe, but looking back, at the end of 2004 we probably would have included LT, Portis, Westbrook, McGahee, Alexander, Tiki, and Dom Davis. Perhaps some other speculative picks, or people may have included elders like Edge, but overall the list isn't that bad.

 

[thehornet]

I pulled this discussion out of F&L's Dynasty Rankings Thread. Some people have been saying it is silly to discuss the potential top running backs 3 years out. I happen to think it is very valuable as a dynasty keeper player. This agrees partly that the RB position is to fluid to project too far out, but also suggests that 3 years isnt too far of a stretch. Anyway, the below topic is quite interesting.

It's wrong because there are too many times that players don't last that long, ESPECIALLY at the RB position. Here's a simple exercise to show this. Go pull up any site that shows stats (including this one) from previous years. Go look at the top names at the RB position and see how many are still around and producing at that kind of level. Even the young guys. There are VERY few players that persist more than 3-4 yrs. At the RB position, the only guy is LT at this point. All of the rest of your top guys were either not in the league or non-factors just as shortly as 3-4 yrs ago. At the WR spot, you've got guys like TO, Holt, Harrison (before this year), CJ, and that's about it. At the QB spot, you've got Peyton Manning. Due to this, it's nearly impossible to figure out who the next Holt or Manning or LT is going to be. Every year there are promising stars, some show their potential early, others not exactly, but you don't get a guy because you think he'll be around longer than 3-4 yrs. You get the guy for that 3-4 yr span and if he's around longer, then you hit gold and accept your bonus.

The NFL is too fluid and too dynamic, mostly due to injuries, trades, free agency, coaching changes, and dependence on supporting cast to try and predict further out than 3 yrs. Who would have thought J. Lewis would be a Cleveland Brown or McGahee a Raven just last year? Their situations allowed them to be successful. What if Cleveland doesn't renew Jamal Lewis's contract and he goes to Oakland in a timeshare? Now what's his value?

Ultimately, this is why you try to get TALENT on your dynasty rosters. It's not to say that situations are irrelevant, but if you consistently find good talent, the situation usually works itself out. The goal is to find the LT's and Manning's and TO's and keep them on your roster forever. This is why you want to get a guy like Adrian Peterson on your roster. And you have to do it BEFORE he puts up the kind of #'s like he did this year. Once these guys perform like they do, you will almost never get a chance to get them again.

Far be it from me to question conventional wisdom (I know, *REAL* shocker, right? ), but is it really the case that anything more than 3 years out of an RB is a bonus? I went back and looked at all RBs 25 or younger who finished the 2004 season in the top 30 in fantasy points. Here's the list, along with where they ranked in 2004 and where they ranked last year in parentheses. I also put their ranking in F&L's rankings after the parentheses just to give an idea of how much we expect them to have left in the tank.Tomlinson (3, 1) 2

Domanick Williams nee Davis (5, OoF) n/a

Rudi Johnson (8, 47) 28

Willis McGahee (9, 8) 10

Brian Westbrook (10, 2) 4

Clinton Portis (11, 4) 9

Kevin Jones (21, 28) 25

Chris Brown (24, 45) n/a

Jamal Lewis (25, 6) 21

Larry Johnson (26, 40) 13

Kevan Barlow (27, OoF) n/a

Julius Jones (28, 44) 33

Derrick Blaylock (30, OoF) n/a

That's 13 RBs. Of the 13, three have flamed out entirely. Three more are basically irrelevant (Johnson, Brown, and JJones), although Jones still has some hope of becoming relevant again. The other 7 were either uberstuds still this year (Tomlinson, Westbrook, McGahee, Portis, Lewis), or else they were derailed by injuries (Larry Johnson, Kevin Jones). That's over 50%, and at the top it's even better- of the 6 "young" RBs who cracked the top 11 in 2004, 4 of them still rank in the top 10 (meaning not only have they given us three good years since 2004, but we expect three MORE good years out of them, which would bring their usable career up to 7 years and counting). The guys lower down in the rankings who are still relevant (Jamal Lewis and Larry Johnson) both had a top-10 season under the age of 25, too (so they are examples rather than exceptions). Now, you may point to Williams nee Davis and Rudi Johnson as counterexamples to the "stud RBs have long careers" rule, but remember that 50% of all fantasy draft picks wind up being busts, so a 66%-75% success rate is very, very good still.

For good but not great RBs, then counting on more than 3 years is silly. For the truly elite RBs, the guys who crack the top 10 prior to the age of 25, it's not silly at all to expect more than 3 years of production. For someone like a Maurice Jones-Drew, or an Adrian Peterson, or a Joseph Addai, or a Marion Barber, or a Frank Gore, or a Steven Jackson, then absolutely you can expect them to remain productive until age 28, 29, or possibly beyond.

by Gianmarco and the follow-up by SSOG.Re: gianmarco's post, I think this sentence sums up the dynasty conundrum very well: "The NFL is too fluid and too dynamic, mostly due to injuries, trades, free agency, coaching changes, and dependence on supporting cast to try and predict further out than 3 yrs." You have to be able to react to change in dynasty leagues, which is why I always have a healthy amount of turnover on my roster every year outside of my young nucleus. It's tough to set your horizon over multiple seasons because of the turnover in the NFL caused by injuries and uncontrollable variables. And remember: upside is crucial, but a great track record is just as valuable, if not moreso.

Re: SSOG's post. I agree, and this is where the dynasty owners with great instincts and the ability to watch a player and come to a quick, decisive judgment have a tremendous advantage. The first time I saw Domanick Davis in his rookie season, he was a back-up. I saw him come on in relief of Stacey Mack one game early in his rookie season in Week 3 against JAX and immediately picked him up off waivers because I could tell even in a few touches that he was a major improvement on Stacey Mack. After watching him a few more times, I could also tell that he wasn't a long-term, building block type of talent at RB. It doesn't take a unique talent to beat out Stacey Mack for the starting RB job, but it does take a unique talent to establish yourself as a long-term, nucleus RB for a dynasty team. Not every player will become the stud you envisioned when you picked him up. It's a constant challenge to gauge which players are nucleus and which players are simply having a good season.

I generally believe that if you can trade a player on your roster who might be good at some point down the road for a player who is good now, then do it. Similar to a major league baseball GM evaluating which prospects to keep and which ones to trade while in contention, one of our most important jobs is to evaluate our own players and decide who is nucleus and whose value is fleeting. It's just as important to have our finger on the pulse of our own roster as it is to target players on other rosters.

In summary, I believe gianmarco was right: it's mostly about talent in dynasty leagues. Any NFL player can have a great season -- any player. But it takes a truly great player to put up consistently great seasons. Studs are studs, and your job is to acquire all of them...or at least as many as you can. That's why you don't see quality dynasty owners wringing their hands over Adrian Peterson's lack of production the last few games. They understand the talent gap between him and the other RBs in the league. It's also why Frank Gore and Steven Jackson owners weathered the storm this year. The top shelf talent is obvious to the discerning dynasty owner.

Bottom line for me in dynasty leagues: be knowledgeable and intuitive enough to develop strong hunches, and then follow your instincts.

 

[thehornet]

If this is already a topic...sorry. I did a search and couldnt find anywhere.This topic always is always of interest to me because Running Backs come and go so quickly and the best RB's can change from year to year. Last year alone Alexander and LJ were top 5 picks, if not top 10. This year LJ is barley hanging on, and SA is a FA. My top 5 is based on pure talent, not what team they play on. No particular order.Gore: I think he will still be producing monster rushing and receiver numbers in a few years. He can wiggle inside and burst outside too. Considering he will still be in his prime 3 years from now. Stewart: This guy is built for success in the NFL. Big, shifty, fast and young. I fully expect him to be a workhorse back as soon as 09. Steven Jackson: So versatile and a smart Running back too. He is only going to get better. Hopefully he can shake the injury bug of last year. MJD: Little Westbrook. I think this guy is great. Everyone here talks about him as the little bowling ball and i couldnt agree more. This will be his year one way or another (I hope) because i really want to see what hecan do with 20+ a game. AP: Other world talent. What do you guys think? I like to read others opinions on this because there is some great talent right here in the pool.

Gore over Addai,Lynch,Barber,Mcfadden just to name a few

gore is WAY better than Addai. They are on completely different talent levels. Lynch could be up there, but he's not one of my top 5. Barber could be too, but not one of mine. I don't think McFadden pans out to be a top 5 back in any year for the future.

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

I'd be willing to bet that there will 2 people on that list that haven't been mentioned yet. Maybe not even in the league at this point. For that reason I think I will pass on this exercise. I have a hard enough time figuring out who will be top 5 this year....Particularly if those names are vastly different at the quarter point of the season and the 3 quarter point....

This is exactly what I was already thinking before I read your post.There is so much turnover at this position that to try to predict the top 5 three years from now is an exercise in futility, and to think that all of the top 5 are even in the league at this point is pretty simplistic and naive at best, imho.

Do you guys play in dynasty leagues?

I only play in dynasty leagues. And I will say that I learned a valuable lesson last year. I used to be the guy that hoarded first round picks for years to come. At one point I had 9 first rounders over the next 3 years. Always trying for youth and the next top prospect. Last year, I emptied the coffers of first rounders. Traded Addai and two first rounders for LT. I had MJD but traded for FRed Taylor. I traded for Jamal Lewis mid season. Those two old guys helped me win much more than LT did. They were monsters down the stretch. MJD is a guy that people are putting on their list here. I think I started the guy about 3 times last year. The lesson I learned was not to always go for youth. Guys like Jamal, Fred, Edge can be very valuable in a dynasty league. Sure you keep players from year to year, but you have to try to win this year. There are good hypotheticals here in discussing who might be a stud SR right now in college, but 3 years out we need to discuss Juniors and even possibly sophs as well as guys from small programs that get little recognition but could bust out and be an uber stud. Did anyone here know who Kevin Smith was as a Soph? I didn't, but I don't watch that much college football. I'm not saying he's going to be an uber stud in the NFL, but he is a guy from a small program with a lot of upside. Or a guy like Steven Davis a few years ago came from nowhere to be a top 10 guy or Priest Holmes, a backup that set the world on fire for another team. Or Lamont Jordan type guy who was a stud, albeit briefly, at Oakland after leaving the Jets. And we have people on this board that mention Gore. Gore is a guy that goes out and seeks contact. He wants to hit people. That does not bode well for his longevity in the league....The better discussion would be who is coming out of college this year, and maybe next, that could do something in the NFL. Some guys are predicting college runners without knowing what situation they land in. Some argue that Felix Jones is better than McFadden. Any chance we see that with him running behind Barber? Probably not....McF is in a better situation...

Look, some of us enjoy looking at this from the hypothetical to see how our ideas match up with others. No one here is jotting down names and doing trades right now to get these players. In the stickied post from Joe at the top of the page he says he will not tolerate people who go to threads specifically to "kill them". Since you have nothing valuable or interesting to add to this thread just leave. We dont care why dont like the idea. We dont care why you think its a bad idea. Go away.

WTF? I didn't take anything away from his post that suggested a thread killer. Hell, he provided more insight than most of the posts in this thread, which just list names. Get a grip.

 

[thehornet]

I'd be willing to bet that there will 2 people on that list that haven't been mentioned yet. Maybe not even in the league at this point. For that reason I think I will pass on this exercise. I have a hard enough time figuring out who will be top 5 this year....Particularly if those names are vastly different at the quarter point of the season and the 3 quarter point....

This is exactly what I was already thinking before I read your post.There is so much turnover at this position that to try to predict the top 5 three years from now is an exercise in futility, and to think that all of the top 5 are even in the league at this point is pretty simplistic and naive at best, imho.

Do you guys play in dynasty leagues?

I only play in dynasty leagues. And I will say that I learned a valuable lesson last year. I used to be the guy that hoarded first round picks for years to come. At one point I had 9 first rounders over the next 3 years. Always trying for youth and the next top prospect. Last year, I emptied the coffers of first rounders. Traded Addai and two first rounders for LT. I had MJD but traded for FRed Taylor. I traded for Jamal Lewis mid season. Those two old guys helped me win much more than LT did. They were monsters down the stretch. MJD is a guy that people are putting on their list here. I think I started the guy about 3 times last year. The lesson I learned was not to always go for youth. Guys like Jamal, Fred, Edge can be very valuable in a dynasty league. Sure you keep players from year to year, but you have to try to win this year. There are good hypotheticals here in discussing who might be a stud SR right now in college, but 3 years out we need to discuss Juniors and even possibly sophs as well as guys from small programs that get little recognition but could bust out and be an uber stud. Did anyone here know who Kevin Smith was as a Soph? I didn't, but I don't watch that much college football. I'm not saying he's going to be an uber stud in the NFL, but he is a guy from a small program with a lot of upside. Or a guy like Steven Davis a few years ago came from nowhere to be a top 10 guy or Priest Holmes, a backup that set the world on fire for another team. Or Lamont Jordan type guy who was a stud, albeit briefly, at Oakland after leaving the Jets. And we have people on this board that mention Gore. Gore is a guy that goes out and seeks contact. He wants to hit people. That does not bode well for his longevity in the league....The better discussion would be who is coming out of college this year, and maybe next, that could do something in the NFL. Some guys are predicting college runners without knowing what situation they land in. Some argue that Felix Jones is better than McFadden. Any chance we see that with him running behind Barber? Probably not....McF is in a better situation...

Look, some of us enjoy looking at this from the hypothetical to see how our ideas match up with others. No one here is jotting down names and doing trades right now to get these players. In the stickied post from Joe at the top of the page he says he will not tolerate people who go to threads specifically to "kill them". Since you have nothing valuable or interesting to add to this thread just leave. We dont care why dont like the idea. We dont care why you think its a bad idea. Go away.

WTF? I didn't take anything away from his post that suggested a thread killer. Hell, he provided more insight than most of the posts in this thread, which just list names. Get a grip.

he posted about 7 times stating why he thought it was a silly conversation.who are your top 5?

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

I'd be willing to bet that there will 2 people on that list that haven't been mentioned yet. Maybe not even in the league at this point. For that reason I think I will pass on this exercise. I have a hard enough time figuring out who will be top 5 this year....Particularly if those names are vastly different at the quarter point of the season and the 3 quarter point....

This is exactly what I was already thinking before I read your post.There is so much turnover at this position that to try to predict the top 5 three years from now is an exercise in futility, and to think that all of the top 5 are even in the league at this point is pretty simplistic and naive at best, imho.

Do you guys play in dynasty leagues?

I only play in dynasty leagues. And I will say that I learned a valuable lesson last year. I used to be the guy that hoarded first round picks for years to come. At one point I had 9 first rounders over the next 3 years. Always trying for youth and the next top prospect. Last year, I emptied the coffers of first rounders. Traded Addai and two first rounders for LT. I had MJD but traded for FRed Taylor. I traded for Jamal Lewis mid season. Those two old guys helped me win much more than LT did. They were monsters down the stretch. MJD is a guy that people are putting on their list here. I think I started the guy about 3 times last year. The lesson I learned was not to always go for youth. Guys like Jamal, Fred, Edge can be very valuable in a dynasty league. Sure you keep players from year to year, but you have to try to win this year. There are good hypotheticals here in discussing who might be a stud SR right now in college, but 3 years out we need to discuss Juniors and even possibly sophs as well as guys from small programs that get little recognition but could bust out and be an uber stud. Did anyone here know who Kevin Smith was as a Soph? I didn't, but I don't watch that much college football. I'm not saying he's going to be an uber stud in the NFL, but he is a guy from a small program with a lot of upside. Or a guy like Steven Davis a few years ago came from nowhere to be a top 10 guy or Priest Holmes, a backup that set the world on fire for another team. Or Lamont Jordan type guy who was a stud, albeit briefly, at Oakland after leaving the Jets. And we have people on this board that mention Gore. Gore is a guy that goes out and seeks contact. He wants to hit people. That does not bode well for his longevity in the league....The better discussion would be who is coming out of college this year, and maybe next, that could do something in the NFL. Some guys are predicting college runners without knowing what situation they land in. Some argue that Felix Jones is better than McFadden. Any chance we see that with him running behind Barber? Probably not....McF is in a better situation...

Look, some of us enjoy looking at this from the hypothetical to see how our ideas match up with others. No one here is jotting down names and doing trades right now to get these players. In the stickied post from Joe at the top of the page he says he will not tolerate people who go to threads specifically to "kill them". Since you have nothing valuable or interesting to add to this thread just leave. We dont care why dont like the idea. We dont care why you think its a bad idea. Go away.

WTF? I didn't take anything away from his post that suggested a thread killer. Hell, he provided more insight than most of the posts in this thread, which just list names. Get a grip.

he posted about 7 times stating why he thought it was a silly conversation.who are your top 5?

I know better than to try and predict something like that, but I do enjoy extracting some information out of threads like this. RB is such a volatile position because of injury, age, and mileage, it's a constant revolving door IMO. The term N(ot) F(or) L(ong) hold true for RBs than any other position. in the NFL.

 

[thehornet]

I'd be willing to bet that there will 2 people on that list that haven't been mentioned yet. Maybe not even in the league at this point. For that reason I think I will pass on this exercise. I have a hard enough time figuring out who will be top 5 this year....Particularly if those names are vastly different at the quarter point of the season and the 3 quarter point....

Thanks for taking the time to tell us you will pass. Appreciate it immensely.MJDAPRay RiceChris JohnsonGore

only a couple years into this, but great job so far!

 

[thehornet]

joseph addairashard mendenhallmarshawn lynchmarion barberknowshon moreno

not so much but there's time.

 

[thehornet]

If this is already a topic...sorry. I did a search and couldnt find anywhere.This topic always is always of interest to me because Running Backs come and go so quickly and the best RB's can change from year to year. Last year alone Alexander and LJ were top 5 picks, if not top 10. This year LJ is barley hanging on, and SA is a FA. My top 5 is based on pure talent, not what team they play on. No particular order.Gore: I think he will still be producing monster rushing and receiver numbers in a few years. He can wiggle inside and burst outside too. Considering he will still be in his prime 3 years from now. Stewart: This guy is built for success in the NFL. Big, shifty, fast and young. I fully expect him to be a workhorse back as soon as 09. Steven Jackson: So versatile and a smart Running back too. He is only going to get better. Hopefully he can shake the injury bug of last year. MJD: Little Westbrook. I think this guy is great. Everyone here talks about him as the little bowling ball and i couldnt agree more. This will be his year one way or another (I hope) because i really want to see what hecan do with 20+ a game. AP: Other world talent. What do you guys think? I like to read others opinions on this because there is some great talent right here in the pool.

Gore over Addai,Lynch,Barber,Mcfadden just to name a few

 

[Pigskin Fanatic]

I'd be willing to bet that there will 2 people on that list that haven't been mentioned yet. Maybe not even in the league at this point. For that reason I think I will pass on this exercise. I have a hard enough time figuring out who will be top 5 this year....Particularly if those names are vastly different at the quarter point of the season and the 3 quarter point....

Thanks for taking the time to tell us you will pass. Appreciate it immensely.MJDAPRay RiceChris JohnsonGore

only a couple years into this, but great job so far!

seriously, nice list there. although some of those guys were discussed extensively, ray rice was still under the radar for many two years ago. i notice lots of love back then for Stewart, i think he still has a chance to do great things in the league but i guess there's no way he'll pass any of these five guys in the next year or two.

 

[Tau837]

Good thread. I don't remember seeing it before. I think this kind of thing should be an annual Shark Pool exercise, and not just for RBs, but also for QBs and WRs. I guess for QBs we might want to extend the window from 3 to 5 years...?

Had I seen this at the time, I would have wanted to clarify what exactly you meant by "in 3 years." Given you asked in August 2008, you might have been asking any of the following:

1. Which RBs will be the consensus top 5 RBs entering the 2011 season, which you could then evaluate against consensus rankings in August 2011.

2. Which RBs will finish the 2010 season as the top 5 scoring RBs, which you could check against 2010 season results.

I assume you meant #1.

 

[Dragon1952]

I got about 10 posts in before I saw this was from 2008. I'm like....huh?

 

[Hendo]

Beanie and Jstew received a lot of love in the early part of this thread in 08 and its looking like it could pan out. If I were to do this now id have both them right there with ADP/MJD/Rice/Johnson, in Dynasty. Rice/Beanie and Jstew are so very very young yet.

 

[eefflrat]

I'd be willing to bet that there will 2 people on that list that haven't been mentioned yet. Maybe not even in the league at this point. For that reason I think I will pass on this exercise. I have a hard enough time figuring out who will be top 5 this year....Particularly if those names are vastly different at the quarter point of the season and the 3 quarter point....

Thanks for taking the time to tell us you will pass. Appreciate it immensely.MJDAPRay RiceChris JohnsonGore

only a couple years into this, but great job so far!

I agree, this list is fantastic, especially going on a limb with CJ and Rice before the 2008 season even started. Lucky for me I have Rice and ADP.

 

[BassNBrew]

I'd be willing to bet that there will 2 people on that list that haven't been mentioned yet. Maybe not even in the league at this point. For that reason I think I will pass on this exercise. I have a hard enough time figuring out who will be top 5 this year....Particularly if those names are vastly different at the quarter point of the season and the 3 quarter point....

Thanks for taking the time to tell us you will pass. Appreciate it immensely.MJDAPRay RiceChris JohnsonGore

Somebody get this guy on staff.

 

[BassNBrew]

I'd be willing to bet that there will 2 people on that list that haven't been mentioned yet. Maybe not even in the league at this point.

For that reason I think I will pass on this exercise. I have a hard enough time figuring out who will be top 5 this year....Particularly if those names are vastly different at the quarter point of the season and the 3 quarter point....

Thanks for taking the time to tell us you will pass. Appreciate it immensely.MJD

AP

Ray Rice

Chris Johnson

Gore

You realize that all the "experts" are usually WWAAAAYYYYY off on who will be the top 5 in 6 months. And you are going to go out 3 years? Guys predicting college players to be in the top 5? People get made fun of when they try to predict how the top college prospects will do before they drafted that year. No idea what situation they wind up in. Many people predicted Mendenhall to be the 1st or second best RB coming out of college in terms of potential fantasy prod prior to the NFL draft. It looks like there could be 5 or 6 RB's that could out produce him this year. It may be easier to pick the winning lottery numbers than it is to pick these 5 guys in 3 years....

benm...watcha ya got on this week's lottery numbers???

 

[BassNBrew]

Some argue that Felix Jones is better than McFadden. Any chance we see that with him running behind Barber? Probably not....McF is in a better situation...

 

[Instinctive]

I'd be willing to bet that there will 2 people on that list that haven't been mentioned yet. Maybe not even in the league at this point. For that reason I think I will pass on this exercise. I have a hard enough time figuring out who will be top 5 this year....Particularly if those names are vastly different at the quarter point of the season and the 3 quarter point....

Thanks for taking the time to tell us you will pass. Appreciate it immensely.MJDAPRay RiceChris JohnsonGore

I would declare that one spot on. and it hasn't been edited.

 

[daveR]

I'd be willing to bet that there will 2 people on that list that haven't been mentioned yet. Maybe not even in the league at this point. For that reason I think I will pass on this exercise. I have a hard enough time figuring out who will be top 5 this year....Particularly if those names are vastly different at the quarter point of the season and the 3 quarter point....

Thanks for taking the time to tell us you will pass. Appreciate it immensely.MJDAPRay RiceChris JohnsonGore

I would declare that one spot on. and it hasn't been edited.

Yeah, but we still have a year and a half to go...

 

[Tickle Monster]

Whole lotta swing and miss by TheFanatic in this thread.

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

1. AP

2. MJD

3. Ray Rice

4.Chris Johnson

Close Behind:

Beanie Wells

Jonathan Stewart

Frank Gore

Has a Shot:

Rashard Mendenhall

Knowshon Moreno

Jamaal Charles

(only did four cause at this point i think there all a tier ahead of everyone else named)

 

[switz]

Some argue that Felix Jones is better than McFadden. Any chance we see that with him running behind Barber? Probably not....McF is in a better situation...

Pretty sure we've already seen Felix is better than McFadden And next year Felix won't be running behind Barber.

 

[EBF]

Really depends on which of the top young players stay healthy (ADP, CJ, Stewart, MJD).

Trent Richardson from Alabama is the best RB prospect in NCAA. He'll be the next big thing at RB in a couple years.

 

[valence]

1. AP2. MJD3. Ray Rice4.Chris JohnsonClose Behind:Beanie WellsJonathan StewartFrank GoreHas a Shot:Rashard MendenhallKnowshon MorenoJamaal Charles(only did four cause at this point i think there all a tier ahead of everyone else named)

I have to put Steven Jackson at #5. After the season he just had behind that awful o-line, I don't see any other options other than Gore.

 

[fruity pebbles]

1. AP2. MJD3. Ray Rice4.Chris JohnsonClose Behind:Beanie WellsJonathan StewartFrank GoreHas a Shot:Rashard MendenhallKnowshon MorenoJamaal Charles(only did four cause at this point i think there all a tier ahead of everyone else named)

I have to put Steven Jackson at #5. After the season he just had behind that awful o-line, I don't see any other options other than Gore.

Since we're looking out 3 years i think you can make a case for a number of other RBs besides SJax or Gore.

 

[maxwelledison]

I'd be willing to bet that there will 2 people on that list that haven't been mentioned yet. Maybe not even in the league at this point. For that reason I think I will pass on this exercise. I have a hard enough time figuring out who will be top 5 this year....Particularly if those names are vastly different at the quarter point of the season and the 3 quarter point....

Thanks for taking the time to tell us you will pass. Appreciate it immensely.MJDAPRay RiceChris JohnsonGore

Somebody get this guy on staff.

Yeah, this is ridiculously accurate.

 

[replacements]

I got about 10 posts in before I saw this was from 2008. I'm like....huh?

lol me too. i was about to go trade for marshawn lynch!!

 

[Futeki]

I'd be willing to bet that there will 2 people on that list that haven't been mentioned yet. Maybe not even in the league at this point. For that reason I think I will pass on this exercise. I have a hard enough time figuring out who will be top 5 this year....Particularly if those names are vastly different at the quarter point of the season and the 3 quarter point....

Thanks for taking the time to tell us you will pass. Appreciate it immensely.MJDAPRay RiceChris JohnsonGore

Somebody get this guy on staff.

Yeah, this is ridiculously accurate.

No, he should stop while he is ahead. It doesn't get any better than that.

 

[SSOG]

i notice lots of love back then for Stewart, i think he still has a chance to do great things in the league but i guess there's no way he'll pass any of these five guys in the next year or two.

It wouldn't surprise me in the slightest to see Stewart pass any of those 5 backs in the next year or two.