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Top WR: Fitz vs Johnson vs Moss (1 Viewer)

M

MikeApf

Footballguy
Most places I've looked, they say Fitzgerald, based on his consistency year in and year out. But when I think about who the # 1 FFL WR is this year, I'm torn between these three:

1. Fitzgerald -- most would say # 1, but the one thing that makes me nervous is Warner's age and health. I know he stayed healthy last year, but that was a surprise in a way and could come crashing down. Is Fitzgerald just as potent statistically with Leinart?

2. Andre Johnson -- also a beast, obviously, but Shaub also has ongoing health concerns. How would Johnson do without Shaub?

3. Moss -- the good thing about Moss, in light of the above comparison, is that Brady is coming back. Sure Brady was out all year, but I don't see him automatically going down again; he is generally fairly sturdy.

I'm sitting at the # 8 spot in my 10 team draft (PPR league, 6 pts for TD, 1 pt per 10 yards rec) and it's possible that 2 or 3 of these WRs will be available. How would you rank them and why?

Am I overthinking Warner's health and is Fitzgerald just a no brainer # 1 or is there something to my anxiety?

M

 
Balance said:
yes
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Yes it which...yes, I'm over thinking it?Or yes, you are just being a smart-### because you think it's kind of "cool" to put someone down on a message board (which ironically, is not a sign of being cool but just a sign of being a jerk.)M
 
Fitzgerald's numbers will take a hit if Warner goes down and Leinart is the starter. Warner probably has a better chance of going down. I am generally a person to say a player is injury prone, but Warner has had concussions in the past. That is one injury that is cumulative, takes a toll over time , and seems to have a propensity for recurring. brady's injury, however, was more of a fluke. Not many QBs tear their ACL and when they do, I can't think of one that has had it recur.

 
Its been proven that whoever is at QB for Houston, they are going to throw AJ the ball. Hes a safe pick. If Warner and Schaub went down, AJ is the safer pick. I cant compare Moss easily, as their backup QB is a big ?? to me.

 
The only answer for me is Moss. They're all fairly equal to me in terms of total yardage, but Moss has the most upside in terms of TD's. For as much as everyone bagged on Cassel for not being able to throw downfield last year, Moss still got 11 TDs. 3 more than AJ, and only 1 less than Fitz. Moss's yards go back up to 1300+ this year IMO, same ballpark as AJ and Fitz.

ETA: In PPR I'd take AJ.

 
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Safe is not a word to describe this year's top WRs. I can't pick which of these guys is the safest b/c none of them feel safe to me. They can all win your league for you, but they all carry some risk, imo. Of these 3 guys, I'd actually lean towards Moss.

If safety is the goal, I might argue that Reggie Wayne is the safest of them all. Not to say he's the best choice, but as far as I can tell, he's the only WR to top 1000 yards in each of the past 5 seasons.

 
in a ten team redraft 2 nights ago i got moss in the 2nd and megatron in the 3rd. It wasnt ppr. fitz went 1.5 and andre went 2.6. Hope that helps. So if the guy at the 5 spot in my league got 2 of 3, you have a good chance of doing it at the 8 spot.

 
1. Moss

2. Johnson

3. Fitzgerald

Now we're really splitting hairs when trying to determine the top guy, but I guess that is the fun of it. Moss has the best QB with a complementary WR who won't take away his opportunities for big plays in Welker. Fitzgerald has the next-best QB, but Boldin can pretty much do everything Fitzgerald can and in some cases do it better. This helps Fitzgerald in some respects, but his ceiling is lower due to the fact that Boldin can be nearly as good of a deep threat and a red zone threat. We can't say that about Welker-Moss. This is why Johnson is No. 2. Walter is a decent complement, but Johnson gets most of the big-play opportunities. Schaub is a nice ascending talent. His injury history is a minor concern, but he spreads the ball around well enough that Johnson does benefit when it is time for his number to be called. He might also be the most physically talented of the three in terms of combining tackle-breaking size, game breaking speed, leaping ability, and hands. He's not the best of the three in all of these categories, but he can do all of these things whereas the other two have slight limitations.

 
MikeApf said:
Balance said:
yes
Click to expand...
Yes it which...yes, I'm over thinking it?Or yes, you are just being a smart-### because you think it's kind of "cool" to put someone down on a message board (which ironically, is not a sign of being cool but just a sign of being a jerk.)M
Click to expand...
yes
 
In PPR I would lean AJ. The guy is great with any QB he has played with. Schuab is a very good QB and Orlovosky is more than adequate as a back up.

A lot of Moss' value will come with TD's. He definitely mas the highest ceiling of the three.

Fitz is a beast but you lose Warner and couple that in there with having an all pro WR lined up next to him it would make AJ the safest pick.

You can't go wrong with any of these 3 guys though.

 
Johnson is safest because of the # of catches he'll have.

Next is Moss because he's more of redzone threat than Fitz.

1. Johnson

2. Moss

3. Fitz

 
When Leinart played, his Fitz/Boldin ratio was more on the Fitz side compared to Warner. I think even if the total passing yards go down, Leinart will favor Fitz and Fitz' production will stay high. I am not worried about Fitz at all even though I am avoiding Warner.

Saying that, I would take Moss. Even if Brady is shaky to start, he is still an improvement over Cassell and a better QB for getting the ball to Moss.

 
rvmblack said:
AJ is the safest option. When Boldin plays, Fitz's stats are more like a Top 6 WR
Click to expand...
I have to disagree here. Best long term maybe... but not the safest in a redraft.In his 6 seasons, AJ has scored more that 151 FP just once, last season (206)

Moss has scored more than 151 FP in 9 of his 11 seasons.

Fitz has scored more than 151 in 3 of 5 of his seasons.

I'll take Moss as the SAFEST option.

 
pollardsvision said:
Safe is not a word to describe this year's top WRs. I can't pick which of these guys is the safest b/c none of them feel safe to me. They can all win your league for you, but they all carry some risk, imo. Of these 3 guys, I'd actually lean towards Moss.If safety is the goal, I might argue that Reggie Wayne is the safest of them all. Not to say he's the best choice, but as far as I can tell, he's the only WR to top 1000 yards in each of the past 5 seasons.
Click to expand...
Although this is true, it really is irrelevant. The only times that Fitz hasn't topped 1000 yards were his rookie season and the year he missed 3 games ('06). That year he finished with 946. Moss' situation is completely different than it was prior to NE, and even without Brady he topped 1000 yds and 10 TDs last year. AJ, like Fitz, has only not topped 1000 yds. when he's missed games or was a rookie. If you want to argue that both AJ and Fitz have missed games, while Wayne has not, thus making him safer, sure, but to argue about yardage totals seems a bit extraneous.
 
MikeApf said:
PPR league, 6 pts for TD, 1 pt per 10 yards rec
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The key issue for me is PPR.In PPR, I see it as nearly a dead heat, but if forced to order them:1. Andre Johnson2. Fitzgerald3. MossJohnson struggles to score TDs but he'll likely have 1-3 dozen more receptions than the other two so he doesn't need as many TDs in PPR to still be #1.Moss has the highest upside in terms of TDs but will likely have the fewest receptions.Fitzgerald is not a no-brainer. It's hard to forget his post-season performance but you have to recognize that Fitz can't just pick up where he left off.Detractors of Moss mention that 2007 was a once-in-a-lifetime season for both him and his QB. While I agree with that, Fitz's post-season was equally once-in-a-lifetime.Of course, the difference is that Fitz is just entering his prime while Moss is on the cusp of exiting his. And Fitz has a QB with a lengthy injury history who has stayed healthy for once, while Moss has a QB who had never missed games to injury now on the mend.By the way, without PPR, I'd rearrange to:1. Fitzgerald2. Moss3. JohnsonNote that in both PPR and non-PPR the difference is very slight from 1-3, in the area of 0.5 fantasy ppg between all three.However, in a TD-heavy league (say, 1 pt for 20 yds), then my order is:1. Moss2. Fitzgerald3. Johnsonand the separation is greater among the three.Finally, in a TD-heavy league with TD bonus points (10-19 yrd TD = 7 pts, 30-39 yd TD = 9 pts, etc.) then my order would be:1. Moss2. Fitzgerald3. Calvin Johnson4. Andre JohnsonAnd in this format, Moss clearly separates himself from the field.
 
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Fitz has to deal with the Madden curse in 2009

good thing he isnot endorsing Campbell's soup or he would be toast in 2009

 
im goin with Moss. got him after Fitz, AJ, and CJ in a redraft.

i see no reason why Moss shouldnt be the #1 WR with Brady back.

 
I took AJ first in my money league PPR draft last week. The one downside to AJ is the lack of touchdowns but he makes up for it with the receptions. With his age and a healthy Schaub (atleast for now) I think he still hasn't had his career year yet and this year could be it. I don't think you can go wrong with any of them.

 
texasheat said:
rvmblack said:
AJ is the safest option. When Boldin plays, Fitz's stats are more like a Top 6 WR
Click to expand...
Moss has scored more than 151 FP in 9 of his 11 seasons.I'll take Moss as the SAFEST option.
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And the two he didn't were in Oakland where he was being a gigantic crybaby and had Aaron Brooks and Kerry Collins throwing to him.
 
Fitzgerald was ranked #1 all summer by, I'm guessing, 75% of lists and sites. Swapping him with Moss in your rankings isn't significant, but it is still interesting to see hivemind changes like this on the eve of many drafts.

 
Moss. Even with a guy like Matt Cassel last year (who despite his good overall numbers, was awful for the first half of the season), he still went over 1,000 yards and scored double digit TDs.

Fitz is out of this world good, but Kurt Warner is getting up there, and has had injury problems in the past, so that is a slight concern.

Johnson is quite clearly the least safe pick. He has never even scored double digit TDs, and has had injury problems in the past.

 
texasheat said:
rvmblack said:
AJ is the safest option. When Boldin plays, Fitz's stats are more like a Top 6 WR
Click to expand...
I have to disagree here. Best long term maybe... but not the safest in a redraft.In his 6 seasons, AJ has scored more that 151 FP just once, last season (206)

Moss has scored more than 151 FP in 9 of his 11 seasons.

Fitz has scored more than 151 in 3 of 5 of his seasons.

I'll take Moss as the SAFEST option.
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Totally agree :bag: besides AJ being best long term. I think Fitz is hands down.

AJ has also never had back to back 1000 yard seasons and the fact Matt Schaub has only been able to start 22 out of a possible 32 games last 2 years. They also traded Rosenfels and it appears Grossman/Orlovsky are backups. Not so sure if and when Schaub goes down how that pans out.

Personally I go 1. Moss, 2. Fitz, 3. AJ in terms of this year.

 
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