It's 10 plus years of playing this game.
Does this mean anyone with more years playing fantasy football has more knowledge than you?Just curious.
Here are Holt's stats to date:
75/1140/10
On AVERAGE that's 7.5 receptions a game, 114 yards a game, and 1 TD a game. The only other WR with similar numbers so far this year is Randy Moss (67/1023/10). No one else is close to those numbers (Santana Moss is next on the list but he's only got 47/793/9).
If you take those numbers and average them out for the rest of the year you're looking at:
120/1824/16
Even if he only reaches 80% of that average over the next six weeks (96/1459/12 for the mathematically challenged) that is still a very good season in fantasy. You've been playing fantasy for 10 years now so you should know this already. Not many players over the past 10 years have posted potential numbers like this. Let's go back to 98-99 when the Pack was rolling. Freeman "
only" had 74/1424/14 - he was the leading receiver that year on a team that had NO rushing game (Derrick Holmes was the leading rusher with 386 yards).
Holt has been consistent so far. Since you can't predict the future, all you can do is go back and look at the past. Holt has been a solid player even when Faulk is healthy and playing. Without Faulk, Holt may get some more looks but he is still a top WR in the NFL when Faulk is in the lineup. In fact it may make Holt more dangerous since opposing defenses have to cover more good players.
Let's look at the two games that Faulk has been back:
Week 10 - 20 attempts for 48 yards 2 TD's / 3 receptions for 6 yards
Week 11 - 20 attempts for 103 yards and 0 TD's / 3 receptions for 21 yards
Average - 20 attempts for 75.5 yards and 1 TD / 3 recpetions for 13.5 yards
Here are Holt's numbers for those same two weeks:
Week 10 - 3 receptions for 38 yards and 0 TD's
Week 11 - 9 receptions for 124 yards and 1 TD
Average - 6 receptions for 81 yards and .5 TD's
Those two averages are not that far apart considering Holt was "supposed" to fall on his face with Faulk coming back.
Looks like when the offense stunk up the joint against Baltimore, every player sucked. Sure Faulk had the 2 TD's but they were thanks in part to good defense/ST play and he had to rush a whole 2 yards for them. Not all that impressive considering it's the almighty Marshall Faulk. Week 11 against the Bears the offense picked up and both players seemed to do very good. If you were to take this info and project it into the future it would suggest that both players live and die by what the total offense does. If Faulk has a good game, Holt seems to have a good game. If Faulk has a bad game, then Holt has a bad game.
Overall, it's not enough data to say one way or another but so far after two games, Holt hasn't fallen on his face like you suggested.
Are you the same guy who had the whole thread on Stephen Davis going bust?
PS - 80 yards and a tuddie every week from Holt would be fine by me and probably the rest of the Holt owners. In my league that's 9 points. I'll take that every week. Since that is your "modified" prediction, I'll hold you to it.