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Tory Holt (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter tytyty
- Start date
More stats.
Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
I'm about to make Holt my #2 over CJohn.
Holt produces steady numbers equal to CJohn's BEST receiving year. Double-D TDs from CJophn are highly questionable. Scott Linehan runs an offense designed to get the starting WR a lot more TDs.
That's why Holt is moving to my #2, or even #1 if SS doesn't retake the field sooner rather than later. Holt's the hands down safest bet in all of FF to get you 80+ 1300+ and 8-10.
Not sure why DAVE moved him up there, but that's my reasoning.
Holt produces steady numbers equal to CJohn's BEST receiving year. Double-D TDs from CJophn are highly questionable. Scott Linehan runs an offense designed to get the starting WR a lot more TDs.
That's why Holt is moving to my #2, or even #1 if SS doesn't retake the field sooner rather than later. Holt's the hands down safest bet in all of FF to get you 80+ 1300+ and 8-10.
Not sure why DAVE moved him up there, but that's my reasoning.
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ILoveMyLions
Footballguy
He's my #1 fantasy WR for this year. I think Holt's consistency is what separates him from the others at the top.
hawaiiankrush
Footballguy
possibly the uncertainty of palmer's status plays into it also.
M
MLBrandow
Guest
Holt should be #1, and for all the reasons Marc mentioned.
SS has a revitalized Colbert, a wannabe #1 and a new blue chip RB looking to erode his opportunities in the receiving game. Even Jake "Blinders On" Delhomme will have a hard time cloning the targets SS saw last year.
Holt has an aging #2, an emerging #3, and a workhorse RB, and let us not forget this is the same guy in Linehan who got Chambers the most (IIRC) targets last year of any WR, and helped to speahead the dominance Moss had in MIN. If Chambers could catch, he'd likely have seen 1500/15.
SS has a revitalized Colbert, a wannabe #1 and a new blue chip RB looking to erode his opportunities in the receiving game. Even Jake "Blinders On" Delhomme will have a hard time cloning the targets SS saw last year.
Holt has an aging #2, an emerging #3, and a workhorse RB, and let us not forget this is the same guy in Linehan who got Chambers the most (IIRC) targets last year of any WR, and helped to speahead the dominance Moss had in MIN. If Chambers could catch, he'd likely have seen 1500/15.
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ScottNorwood
Footballcutie
I like CJo slightly better than Holt, but they should both be solid. I don't see the decision between the two of them as something that will win or lose the league for you.
How much that Linehan is gone hurt Chambers you think?
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
most people would say that improve QB play would balance the missing of Linehan
M
MLBrandow
Guest
I honestly think, all things considered, he stays exactly the same. 1100/11 sounds about right for '06, maybe even a little high.It is worth noting that I am very skeptical of the Dolphins offense this year as a whole, and I also don't think Chambers finishes much farther ahead than Booker, who is going much, much later.Mularkey receivers have been interchangable at WR1/WR2 (Ward/Burress, Moulds/Price, Moulds/Evans), and I see no reason to think it'll change with Chambers/Booker.
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DOVCommish
Footballguy
Steady. Consistent. Fewer questions. Excellent #1 choice.
Steve Smith - ranked #1, cannot repeat those #'s.
Chad - Should still be up there, but if Wright has to play the first month...?
Fitz/Boldin - If when Warner goes down, will the numbers suffer?
T.O. - I don't have it in me to deal with him
Steve Smith - ranked #1, cannot repeat those #'s.
Chad - Should still be up there, but if Wright has to play the first month...?
Fitz/Boldin - If when Warner goes down, will the numbers suffer?
T.O. - I don't have it in me to deal with him
T-BONE
Footballguy
Really ?? I always thought that without Martz, a pass oriented coach, Rams passing game should be downgrade...But I can see here that you guys dont think the same way... can someone explain me why ?
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Sabertooth
Footballguy
I like everything you said here right up to the bolded part. Linehan was the OC last season. He is the HC this season. Either the OC decides on pass distribution, or the HC does. I hate when I see this. If the OC is in charge of this, fine. But show consistency as Linehan is not the OC of the Rams. If it's the HC's call, then it was Saban that did it in the first place. The truth probably lies somewhere in the middle, but this cannot be a simple 1-1 equation.
jurb26
Footballguy
I'm just not a big fan of this St.L passing game anymore, and I own Bulger. The Oline is pregressivly worse every year it seems. Bruce is demanding less and less attention as the WR2. Jackson seems to be the focal point of the O now. The coaches want to run the ball more. Bulger gets hurt every year. I'll pass on Holt this year.
simey
Footballguy
Even with Keyshawn, Colbert, Carter, Foster, and even DeAngelo in the mix, SS is still the Panthers most explosive player. It is doubtful he will get as many receptions this year as last year, but he is a player who even on a short pass in cross-town traffic, can catch the ball and high-tail it down the field for a score.
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
Let's see, Steve Smith in his absolute prime, returning from the playoffs with everything and more, or Torry Holt and the 06' Rams...
I'll take Smith, thank you.
I'll take Smith, thank you.
Linehan might not throw as much, but historically he throws even MORE to his WR1, whereas St. Louis favored a more balanced attack. It's sort of like Carolina last year- they were a mediocre passing offense, but Smith put up MONSTER numbers because he was option 1A, 1B, and 1C. That's generally how Linehan runs his offenses. Even if St. Louis regresses as a passing offense on the whole, it's fully possible for Holt's numbers to go UP.When projecting fantasy players, I always look at two pieces of information- how big is the "pie" going to be, and how big is that player's piece going to be. 50% of 3000 yards passing is better than 30% of 4,000 yards passing.
Historically, Offensive-minded HCs are very much in charge of the offensive gameplan, and hire defensive assistants with lots of control. Likewise, defensive-minded HCs are in charge of the defensive gameplan, and hire OCs with lots of control. Think Steve Spurrier/Marvin Lewis in Washington for the most extreme example.Saban's experience is on the defensive side of the ball. It's very reasonable to expect that he gave Linehan a ton of leeway on the offense. Linehan's experience is on the offensive side of the ball. It's very reasonable that he's going to implement his own scheme, no matter who is hired. Just look at Mike Shanahan for an example of an offensive HC who is very responsible for the scheme the team runs. Shanny always hires guys who run "his scheme".
It might not be a perfect 1-1, but I don't think it's unreasonable to expect it to be pretty close.
I view Bruce demanding less attention as a positive for Holt. Less attention from Bruce = more balls for Holt. It's not as if he's never proven himself capable of beating double teams here, you know.Anyway, I have had Holt as my fantasy #1 for a while now, because of the unreal consistancy. In addition, he's my favorite player in all of fantasy football- not based on his numbers. I just like him. I like his attitude, I like his work ethic, I *love* watching him play... and I love it when I go into Monday Night down by a dozen with no one left to play except for Torry Holt. They don't call him "Big Game" for nothing.
What's the fun of playing fantasy football if you can't grab your favorite players?
Otis
Footballguy
How do you bump Holt UP this year in view of Martz's departure?
That team threw the ball more than anyone, and those extra pass plays have always helped Holt's stats. With someone other than Martz there, the team simply has to pass less (they certainly can't pass more, and just about any play caller in the NFL is more conservative than Martz, most by a long way). Less passing plays = decreased stats for Holt.
I've bumped him down in all of my rankings this year. I think he is a great SELL HIGH candidate.
That team threw the ball more than anyone, and those extra pass plays have always helped Holt's stats. With someone other than Martz there, the team simply has to pass less (they certainly can't pass more, and just about any play caller in the NFL is more conservative than Martz, most by a long way). Less passing plays = decreased stats for Holt.
I've bumped him down in all of my rankings this year. I think he is a great SELL HIGH candidate.
jurb26
Footballguy
So do I now that I see how many people are ranking him as the #1 WR.
PahtyTom
Footballguy
Linehan might be just as prolific a passing offense mind as Martz, or damn close. Ask Randy Moss, Chris Chambers, Daunte Culpepper, and even Gus freakin Frerotte. I'm pretty surprised Bulger is not ranked higher by most with a QB guru like Linehan taking over. He makes every QB he works with better. Linehan = big numbers
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Otis
Footballguy
Has he ever approached the number of pass plays in a Martz offense? I have idea how to even find these numbers, but I'd be curious to see where Martz compares to the rest of the field and to Linehan in passing plays.
Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
ML Brandow agrees with me?Does Satan have a sweater on?LOL!!!!
Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
Linehan uses WAY fewer 3 and 4 wide sets, yet has an equal propensity for throwing the ball - especially the deep ball (Holt's forte).If you look at the #3 (Curtis) and #4 (McDonald) WR numbers for the Rams last year, you will see why we project Holt's numbers to take a jump with Martz gone.
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PahtyTom
Footballguy
I don't know about the number of pass plays but the end results are similar.
Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
Ummmm.To win??What's the fun of playing fantasy football if you can't grab your favorite players?
Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
Frerotte will be fine in relief - Frerotte was the one who got Chmabers to the Pro Bowl in 2005, and he is intimately familiar with the Linehan offense, this being his THIRD go-round in it.
Otis
Footballguy
Were they? Didn't the Rams regularly have 3 receivers who just put up ridiculous numbers? I know Moss and Carter had a few good years, but was that with Linehan there? If so, was it close to the number of pass plays?Ultimately this is a really basic point. If Martz throws a lot more than anyone else in the NFL, and Martz is now gone, the number of pass plays must come down, and, therefore, Holt's stats must (or will likely) come down.
PahtyTom
Footballguy
Yes they were similar as far as #1 WRs and QBs go. I haven't run the numbers yet, but I'd be willing to say that Linehan's #1 WRs actually performed better than Martz's on an average. I could be wrong, but probably not by much if I am."Ultimately this is a really basic point. If Martz throws a lot more than anyone else in the NFL, and Martz is now gone, the number of pass plays must come down, and, therefore, Holt's stats must (or will likely) come down."Were they? Didn't the Rams regularly have 3 receivers who just put up ridiculous numbers? I know Moss and Carter had a few good years, but was that with Linehan there? If so, was it close to the number of pass plays?Ultimately this is a really basic point. If Martz throws a lot more than anyone else in the NFL, and Martz is now gone, the number of pass plays must come down, and, therefore, Holt's stats must (or will likely) come down.
This is just not true and very poor assumption. Just because Martz throws more does not mean that his WR's stats will automatically decline with less pass attempts. Maybe Linehan throws 5 times less a game, but he picks his spots better and Holt catches more deep bombs for TDs because of it.
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Again, there are two things that determine's a WRs stats- the size of the pie, and the size of the player's piece of the pie. 50% of 3,000 > 30% of 4,000. Couldn't you envision a scenario where Carolina passes for more yards, but Steve Smith gets less? And if so, why's it so hard to imagine St. Louis passing for fewer yards, but Holt getting more?A note: I don't think Holt will finish #1 this season, but I think he's the closest thing to a lock to finish in the top 5, which is why I rate him so highly. And I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him finish #1- I think he's got as good of a shot as anyone.
I play to have fun, and I think it's a lot more fun rooting for players I like. I mean, I'm not going to grab someone 10 rounds early here, but if I have two players rated comparably, I definitely use personal feelings towards the player as a tiebreaker.Ummmm.To win??What's the fun of playing fantasy football if you can't grab your favorite players?
paz1
Footballguy
Are you at all concerned about his hammy?
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
I'm not, really. To begin with, I question the severity of some of these "hammy's". And what's the risk Owens, Moss or Holt get injured? Probably about the same, if you could gauge somehow.SS is easily atop my board.
Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
Bolded part = non-sequitur from the first part.And Martz throws more than anyone else, but not a "lot" more than Linehan's offenses.Ultimately this is a really basic point. If Martz throws a lot more than anyone else in the NFL, and Martz is now gone, the number of pass plays must come down, and, therefore, Holt's stats must (or will likely) come down.
Tau837
Footballguy
Last season:St. Louis was 4th in the league with 598 passing attempts. Holt had 163 targets.Miami was 10th in the league with 557 passing attempts. Chambers had 166 targets.Holt has averaged 158.5 targets over the past 4 seasons, and just look at the numbers he has produced. Heck, in 2004 he had 94/1372/10 on just 129 targets.The fact that Linehan got Chambers 166 targets last season in Miami shows that there is no reason to suspect a decline in Holt's numbers.Were they? Didn't the Rams regularly have 3 receivers who just put up ridiculous numbers? I know Moss and Carter had a few good years, but was that with Linehan there? If so, was it close to the number of pass plays?Ultimately this is a really basic point. If Martz throws a lot more than anyone else in the NFL, and Martz is now gone, the number of pass plays must come down, and, therefore, Holt's stats must (or will likely) come down.
I'm a big Steve Smith fan, but I question his numbers this year. Carolina finally has a decent WR2 for the first time since 2003. The WR1 for the last 2 years in Carolina has gotten an insane percentage of overall targets for the team that I think can only go down.Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll said:
diesel7982
Footballguy
How do people still have Chad Johnson as a top 5 WR?
I just cannot fathom this.
I just cannot fathom this.
CalBear
Footballguy
He finished as the #3 WR with Jon Kitna at QB.
Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
and the SIGNIFICANTLY greater chance of double-D TDs.I just changed my WR rankings to reflect HOlt at #2 and a bunch of other changes.
diesel7982
Footballguy
And that means what in relation to this year?Palmer is obviously hurt and has missed a ton of offseason work. TJ Houshmandzadeh has become the #2 threat that CJ didnt have in 2004.
CalBear
Footballguy
Peter Warrick caught 79 balls in 2003; one more than Houshmanzadeh caught in 2005.You can't fathom how people have as a top-5 WR someone who's finished as a top-5 WR twice in the past three years, with two different QBs? Maybe you need to learn how to fathom better.
Tau837
Footballguy
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
