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Total Passing Yards Prediction (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter joffer
- Start date
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Somthing that I have been looking at when doing projections for Wr is thier catch percentage of targets. I do think this is impacted by the Qbs accuracy. Joey Harrington has a career completion % of 54.7 which is below average for a starting Qb. What your looking for in Qb accuracy is near or above 60% of pass attempts completed.
Jon Kitna has a career completion percentage of 58.8 his numbers are brought down some by 2 bad seasons in 1999 and 2001. In 2001 the Bengals primary Wr was Peter Warrick and thier offense was based more on power running game with Dillon and Lorenzo Neal. Chad Johnson and Housh were both rookies that year and thus thier contributions were limited.
I only point this out because Kitna has had 3seasons where his completion percentage was 62% or above. So with him I do think the Lions now have a accurate Qb who should be able to put the recievers in a good postion to make the most of thier targets. Especialy with Martz at OC who definitly knows how to run a successful passing offense.
So then I look at the Wrs:
Roy Williams 2004 caught 46% of targets
Roy Williams 2005 caught 48% of targets
MIke Williams 2005 caught 51% of targets
Charles Rogers 2005 caught 45% of targets
Scotty Vines 2005 caught 56% of targets
Corey Bradford (with Houston) 2004 caught 50% of targets
Corey Bradford (with Houston) 2005 caught 51% of targets
Az-Zahir Hakim (now with NO) 2004 54% of targets
Az-Zahir Hakim (now with NO) 2005 59% of targets
I give Roy some benifit of the doubt because of Harrington however his percentages send big red flags to me as most compitent Wrs have a caught target percentage of at least 55% which Roy Williams is showing a trend of inconsistency that is worse than other Wrs that I have seen with this problem.
Amani Toomer and Plaxico Burress Chris Chambers are Wr who have only caught about 50% of thier targets but had some good seasons because of thier explosivness and the huge ammount of targets they recieved. I see them as comp players for Roy Williams upside.
Travis Taylor Eddie Kennison Curtis Conway Todd Pinkston Bill Schroeder Az Hakim and Corey Bradfords numbers are more in line of the 48% we have seen from Roy Williams so far.
Complimentary Wrs are Corey Bradford Mike Williams Charles Rogers Scotty Vines. So Im not seeing a lot of help there.
Rbs combined for 96 catches on the lions last year so Im not sure if we should expect a large increase in targets there. The Lambs under Martz even in 2001 when Faulk caught 83 only had 105 total targets to Rbs.
Detroit Lions recieving yards 2005:
WRs:
Roy Williams 45 catches 687 yards 8 TD
Scotty Vines 40 catches 417 yards 0 TD
Mike Williams 29 catches 350 yards 1 TD
Charles Rogers 14 catches 197 yards 1 TD
Kevin Johnson 17 catches 133 yards 0 TD
other 3 catches 26 yards
total 148 catches 1810 for Wrs 60% of total passing yardage.
Corey Bradford now added to the mix
TEs:
Marcus Pollard 46 catches 516 yards 3 TD
Casey Fitzsimmons 10 catches 45 yards 1 TD
total 56 catches 561 yards 4 TD 19% of total passing yardage.
RBs:
Shawn Bryson 37 catches 284 yards 0 TD
Kevin Jones 20 catches 109 yards 0 TD
Artose Pinner 21 catches 181 yards 0 TD
Cory Schlesinger 8 catches 31 yards 1 TD
Paul Smith 6 catches 49 yards 0 TD
total 92 catches 654 tards 1 TD 21% of total passing yardage.
Just throwing some numbers out there for people to think about.
I expect the offense to improve slightly because of Martz/Kitna but I do not see the Lions Wrs despite thier lofty draft status as being anything that resembles the weapons Martz had to work with before.
Jon Kitna has a career completion percentage of 58.8 his numbers are brought down some by 2 bad seasons in 1999 and 2001. In 2001 the Bengals primary Wr was Peter Warrick and thier offense was based more on power running game with Dillon and Lorenzo Neal. Chad Johnson and Housh were both rookies that year and thus thier contributions were limited.
I only point this out because Kitna has had 3seasons where his completion percentage was 62% or above. So with him I do think the Lions now have a accurate Qb who should be able to put the recievers in a good postion to make the most of thier targets. Especialy with Martz at OC who definitly knows how to run a successful passing offense.
So then I look at the Wrs:
Roy Williams 2004 caught 46% of targets
Roy Williams 2005 caught 48% of targets
MIke Williams 2005 caught 51% of targets
Charles Rogers 2005 caught 45% of targets
Scotty Vines 2005 caught 56% of targets
Corey Bradford (with Houston) 2004 caught 50% of targets
Corey Bradford (with Houston) 2005 caught 51% of targets
Az-Zahir Hakim (now with NO) 2004 54% of targets
Az-Zahir Hakim (now with NO) 2005 59% of targets
I give Roy some benifit of the doubt because of Harrington however his percentages send big red flags to me as most compitent Wrs have a caught target percentage of at least 55% which Roy Williams is showing a trend of inconsistency that is worse than other Wrs that I have seen with this problem.
Amani Toomer and Plaxico Burress Chris Chambers are Wr who have only caught about 50% of thier targets but had some good seasons because of thier explosivness and the huge ammount of targets they recieved. I see them as comp players for Roy Williams upside.
Travis Taylor Eddie Kennison Curtis Conway Todd Pinkston Bill Schroeder Az Hakim and Corey Bradfords numbers are more in line of the 48% we have seen from Roy Williams so far.
Complimentary Wrs are Corey Bradford Mike Williams Charles Rogers Scotty Vines. So Im not seeing a lot of help there.
Rbs combined for 96 catches on the lions last year so Im not sure if we should expect a large increase in targets there. The Lambs under Martz even in 2001 when Faulk caught 83 only had 105 total targets to Rbs.
Detroit Lions recieving yards 2005:
WRs:
Roy Williams 45 catches 687 yards 8 TD
Scotty Vines 40 catches 417 yards 0 TD
Mike Williams 29 catches 350 yards 1 TD
Charles Rogers 14 catches 197 yards 1 TD
Kevin Johnson 17 catches 133 yards 0 TD
other 3 catches 26 yards
total 148 catches 1810 for Wrs 60% of total passing yardage.
Corey Bradford now added to the mix
TEs:
Marcus Pollard 46 catches 516 yards 3 TD
Casey Fitzsimmons 10 catches 45 yards 1 TD
total 56 catches 561 yards 4 TD 19% of total passing yardage.
RBs:
Shawn Bryson 37 catches 284 yards 0 TD
Kevin Jones 20 catches 109 yards 0 TD
Artose Pinner 21 catches 181 yards 0 TD
Cory Schlesinger 8 catches 31 yards 1 TD
Paul Smith 6 catches 49 yards 0 TD
total 92 catches 654 tards 1 TD 21% of total passing yardage.
Just throwing some numbers out there for people to think about.
I expect the offense to improve slightly because of Martz/Kitna but I do not see the Lions Wrs despite thier lofty draft status as being anything that resembles the weapons Martz had to work with before.
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M
MLBrandow
Guest
The buckets are too narrow IMO.
<-- 3800-3899
....or... not enough to break .500
<-- 3800-3899
....or... not enough to break .500
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mlball77
Footballguy
Not bagging on anyone here... just an honest question that popped into my mind and made me curious... For those of you that see DET passing for 3800+ yds this year, who do you see as being the benefeciary of this production? It seems obvious that Roy Williams is likely to have a big year IF the Lions post this type of passing yards, but who else? KJ, Mike Williams, Pollard? Just curious to hear what players those expecting huge things from the DET passing game believe will be big in 06.
Thanks.
Thanks.
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
It's not going to happen, but I think Shawn Bryson could be a stud in that offense if he was given the starting RB role.
M
MLBrandow
Guest
I see Roy Williams getting 1300+ and the ret being divied up among the other receivers, Pollard and KJ. I'd only consider RW/KJ fantasy factors. Kitna has never had a TE that I can think of, and even when he had one he didn't throw to him. I'm sure that will factor against Pollard's already marginal numbers.Could see him force-feeding the ball to RW all year, but the defense needs a lot of work, and IMO just like Roy said last season, the Lions really need a solid veteran presence to help the young WRs progress to the next level, so the Lions won't be good (again).
I do, however, have faith in Marinelli on the 3-year plan to build a hell of a defense.
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John Mamula
Moderator
It is shocking to me how almost everyone here consistently over-projects stats for Detroit's offense every year.
put me down for 3,000-3,099
lmFAo at 3,800.
put me down for 3,000-3,099
lmFAo at 3,800.
tribecalledjeff
Footballguy
so you expect absolutely zero inrease from last year?
John Mamula
Moderator
Pretty much.
John Mamula
Moderator
Kitna a few years ago...A lot of uncertainty between McCown and Kitna, an overrated RB, and an even more overrated WR corps.
It may happen, but there won't be any Lions on my team this year, with the possible exception of Kitna really late.
M
MLBrandow
Guest
You're uncanny ability for debate consistently has us all in awe.There are few quarterbacks in the league as terrible as Joey Harrington was for detroit the last few years.
You're confusing "over-projecting" of the offense with "wins". The Lions aren't going to win anything, but they'll get some solid yardage this year.
You realize that this is a Mike Martz offense now?
You know, Mike "I'll pass the ball 40 times a game when we're ahead by three scores" Martz?
John Mamula
Moderator
How do you know it was Harrington that was so horrible, and that his supporting cast didn't have a lot to do with it? You don't.
No, I am not. But thanks for telling me what I am confused about.
Yes.Glad we could clear all of that up.
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MLBrandow
Guest
<3000 [ 5 ] ** [5.81%]3000-3199 [ 8 ] ** [9.30%]i lied, looks like we almost have a bell curve discounting the <3000 and >4000 votes
3200-3399 [ 12 ] ** [13.95%]
3400-3599 [ 23 ] ** [26.74%]
3700-3799 [ 8 ] ** [22.09%]
3800-3999 [ 11 ] ** [12.80%]
>=4000 [ 8 ] ** [9.30%]
This is a much better-looking interpretation of the poll IMO.
Here you can see a nice curve where it seems the plurality of members here expect Kitna to throw for about 3500.
I'd say that's a pretty good guess.
Because when you watch game film, and look at Harrington's stat-lines, you see that he was one of the worst QBs of the modern era.A few examples of reasonable excuses for bad stats: Hasselbeck's completion percentage for the past couple of seasons had been down because his receivers kept dropping balls.
Trent Green's consistently high INTs per season in KC are a direct result of having a roster full of short WRs that can't catch in the redzone. As a result, he has to force-feed the ball to triple-covered Tony Gonzalez, which leads to picks here and there.
A Career 54.7% completion with a career 5.68YPA and a 1:1 TD/INT ratio is what we have in Joey Harrington.
You know how bad that is?
What are you going to blame it on? The fact that only Roy Williams can consistently catch Harrington's wildly errant and off-target throws?
I do not follow, sir. I think you just like to take a popular point like the Lions being consistently bad and use that flawed base to ignore anything divergent to your tunneled majoritarian views. That joke is old and the horse left a while ago.
If you're going to make any sort of claim, you need to back it up, not just make a series of short quips and expect that somehow legitimizes your argument.
Don't be a tool. You have still yet to contribute anything of value to this thread beyond your own baseless opinions.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
I completed the catch percentage to target data in my previous post.
What that shows is that only Az Hakim and Scotty Vines were catching 55% of thier targets which is significantly better than the other Wrs who are only catching about 50% or less of thiers. I do think this begs the question about Roy and Charles ability to make clutch catches that create 1st downs. I will give Mike Williams as pass on this for now because he was only a rookie and also was likely rusty from not playing in 2004.
I think there is more to this incompitence than just Joey Harrington. Because Scotty Vines was able to catch 56% of his targets and Az Hakim who is pretty low in this category throughout his career had some of his best catch to target percentages in 2004 and 2005.
I think the catch to target percentage is important because it shows a teams ability to convert 3rd downs and keep the ball instead of punting. When a team is poor at doing this is limits thier number of offensive plays.
The Lions have been running a WCO which is designed to have high completion percentage more than trying to push the ball down the field. These personel were obviously not doing a good of executing this offense.
On a individual basis I think it shows a recievers ability to make catches.
That the team signed Corey Bradford who a lot of sources are projecting to be the WR2 in this offense really baffles me. Bradford has been consistently inconsistent throughout his career. I don't see how the Lions think he is going to help them.
Martz runs a offense that attacks more down field than the WCO. It requires the Oline to block longer than most offenses in the league do. Thier Oline is still a weakness from what I see.
The offense really needs a possesion Wr still I think. Maybe Mike Williams can become that. Or else Scotty Vines.
Overall my optimism in Kitna/Martz is effected my the deficiencies I see in the Wrs.
3300 yards 18 TDs if Kitna can keep the interceptions down enough that they don't give him the hook at some point.
What that shows is that only Az Hakim and Scotty Vines were catching 55% of thier targets which is significantly better than the other Wrs who are only catching about 50% or less of thiers. I do think this begs the question about Roy and Charles ability to make clutch catches that create 1st downs. I will give Mike Williams as pass on this for now because he was only a rookie and also was likely rusty from not playing in 2004.
I think there is more to this incompitence than just Joey Harrington. Because Scotty Vines was able to catch 56% of his targets and Az Hakim who is pretty low in this category throughout his career had some of his best catch to target percentages in 2004 and 2005.
I think the catch to target percentage is important because it shows a teams ability to convert 3rd downs and keep the ball instead of punting. When a team is poor at doing this is limits thier number of offensive plays.
The Lions have been running a WCO which is designed to have high completion percentage more than trying to push the ball down the field. These personel were obviously not doing a good of executing this offense.
On a individual basis I think it shows a recievers ability to make catches.
That the team signed Corey Bradford who a lot of sources are projecting to be the WR2 in this offense really baffles me. Bradford has been consistently inconsistent throughout his career. I don't see how the Lions think he is going to help them.
Martz runs a offense that attacks more down field than the WCO. It requires the Oline to block longer than most offenses in the league do. Thier Oline is still a weakness from what I see.
The offense really needs a possesion Wr still I think. Maybe Mike Williams can become that. Or else Scotty Vines.
Overall my optimism in Kitna/Martz is effected my the deficiencies I see in the Wrs.
3300 yards 18 TDs if Kitna can keep the interceptions down enough that they don't give him the hook at some point.
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