Tough Decisions.... (1 Viewer)

[Varmint]

This is not a WDIS thread....you don't even have to say exactly who'd you'd start.

I just want to know how YOU weigh your options?

What factor would push you one way or the other?

Trying to decide between:

E. Royal and R. Moss. Both play at the same time so any changes could be made up until kickoff.

E. Royal is a bit banged up but should play.

Assuming BOTH are starting....

E. Royal: Playing against the #26 pass defense...a VERY favorable matchup.

R. Moss: Playing against the # 1 pass defense....a VERY tough matchup.

E. Royal should expect to see 8-10 targets....at least on long target

R. Moss should expect to see 8-10 targets....little chance at a long target

E. Royal is assisited by a "strong arm" of a QB in J. Cutler

R. Moss is assisted by a "not-so-strong arm" of a QB in M. Cassel

E. Royal and the Broncos will most likely be playing from behind most of the game. The Broncos will rely heavily on the pass

R. Moss and the Patriots should be in a much closer (field position) of a game. The Patriots will, most likey, mix it up more.

E. Royal has been pretty "cool" as of late

R. Moss has been hotter than a two-dollar hooker as of late.

E. Royal is #2 on the depth chart and will most likely draw one-on-one coverage

R. Moss is...R. Moss and will get double coverage.

You may not agree with how I've assessed their situations or you may feel that I have missed something.

If so...point them out!

How do you sort through choices like this?

Do you always play your stud?

Do you put more empahsis on the player or the matchup?

 

[Interseptopus]

Looks awfully like a WDIS....

 

[Varmint]

Looks awfully like a WDIS....

I've learned long ago that WDIS opinions around here are no better than any other web site....You can go to dozens to get dozens of opinions...Ok...substitute any name you'd like who are in the same situation... I just came across this particular choice in my roster and it got me to thinking about the situation in general.I'm looking to see the consensus which situation carries more weight in decision making...The player and his history...or the matchup.

 

[FUBAR]

I like Royal a lot, but I'm not benching the best WR in the game, whose QB has thrown for 400+ yards 2 weeks in a row, against a team where they will have to throw the ball.

Sure the Steelers D is tough, but New England will not win this by running the ball. Expect no less than 8 targets, at least 1 TD.

However, Randy has not been "hotter than a two-dollar hooker as of late" - he had a great game last week, but had 65/53/26 in the 3 games before that.

If all you're looking for is "how" do I assess, it's pretty simple - start your studs unless you have multiple studs, then look at the matchup and how you expect things to turn out. I don't use WDIS or even the rankings here for anything other than a quick check.

 

[Varmint]

I like Royal a lot, but I'm not benching the best WR in the game, whose QB has thrown for 400+ yards 2 weeks in a row, against a team where they will have to throw the ball. However, Randy has not been "hotter than a two-dollar hooker as of late" - he had a great game last week, but had 65/53/26 in the 3 games before that.

Well...maybe not THAT hot...but he did have 5 receptions in Week 10 and a late TD in Week 11.He does seem to be the target in the red zone.

 

[Touchdown Syndrome]

Most of the time, I go with the stud player and his talent/recent history instead of the matchup. That way I never have to worry about falling into the "chasing points and over-managing" trap. If I have an elite stud, I usually plug n' play, and try not to get too cute.

 

[Interseptopus]

I like Royal a lot, but I'm not benching the best WR in the game, whose QB has thrown for 400+ yards 2 weeks in a row, against a team where they will have to throw the ball. Sure the Steelers D is tough, but New England will not win this by running the ball. Expect no less than 8 targets, at least 1 TD.However, Randy has not been "hotter than a two-dollar hooker as of late" - he had a great game last week, but had 65/53/26 in the 3 games before that.If all you're looking for is "how" do I assess, it's pretty simple - start your studs unless you have multiple studs, then look at the matchup and how you expect things to turn out. I don't use WDIS or even the rankings here for anything other than a quick check.

I start my studs. If a stud is banged up I may start someone else. I am benching Royal this week for Hixon. How did I assess? Well, Royal was limited all week, his stats are huge with KR yards, but with him being hurt and a game time decision I decided to go with a WR who may post better stats than him (especially with KR/PR yards)

 

[Tong Po]

I like Royal a lot, but I'm not benching the best WR in the game, whose QB has thrown for 400+ yards 2 weeks in a row, against a team where they will have to throw the ball.

Sure the Steelers D is tough, but New England will not win this by running the ball. Expect no less than 8 targets, at least 1 TD.

However, Randy has not been "hotter than a two-dollar hooker as of late" - he had a great game last week, but had 65/53/26 in the 3 games before that.

If all you're looking for is "how" do I assess, it's pretty simple - start your studs unless you have multiple studs, then look at the matchup and how you expect things to turn out. I don't use WDIS or even the rankings here for anything other than a quick check.

I'm confused..... are two dollar hookers hot?

 

[Touchdown Syndrome]

2 dollar hookers are hot in that they get a lot of action. Also, they are hot in that they have burning, fiery STD's.

 

[MAC_32]

Is he a stud? If yes, start him. If no, see below.

1) ceiling

2) floor

3) consistency

4) recent performance

5) injury status

6) matchup

7) my projections for game

8) weather

That gets adjusted depending on specific player vs. player comparisons but that's a blue print of what I use...

NOTE: my stud list/position is likely much smaller than most. If I have more studs than I can start (i.e. had Brees + Warner earlier this season) I trade the less valuable stud.

 

[Duke1948]

Is he a stud? If yes, start him. If no, see below.1) ceiling2) floor3) consistency4) recent performance5) injury status6) matchup7) my projections for game8) weatherThat gets adjusted depending on specific player vs. player comparisons but that's a blue print of what I use...NOTE: my stud list/position is likely much smaller than most. If I have more studs than I can start (i.e. had Brees + Warner earlier this season) I trade the less valuable stud.

like the listnot sure if there was any order intended but this time of year.....my #1 priority to look at is weather.

 

[MCguidance]

I like to play my studs/horses but I don't ignore matchups altogether. For example, start the runner going against Detroit, period. I don't care if you have Barber, LT, Portis, and Lendale - Lendale is starting.

Injuries, weather, my record in the league, how bad I need a win, etc. are all other factors.

If I had to rank the three top factors, they would be this (for me):

Studs

Matchup

Upside

 

[BusMan]

Ultimately my WDIS strategy always ends up boiling down to the answer to one self-imposed question: who will make me more angry should he blow up on my bench?

 

[coolnerd]

Ultimately my WDIS strategy always ends up boiling down to the answer to one self-imposed question: who will make me more angry should he blow up on my bench?

honestly, this is what usually drives me to go with the stud more often than not. I am ok with a wrong decision if there is solid football reasoning behind it. Even when I go to a so-called gut call, I will make sure that there is some logic to the play.A couple of things that have not been mentioned that I do consider are game time and now that we have about 6 weeks of Thurs night play, I will consider the point totals and positions used by both myself and my oppnent. both are down the line of any list, but are factors.

 

[Touchdown Syndrome]

Ultimately my WDIS strategy always ends up boiling down to the answer to one self-imposed question: who will make me more angry should he blow up on my bench?

Bingo. This is exactly my deciding factor when there's a "tie" regarding WDIS.

 

[puckalicious]

I don't think this applies to the example given, but I have a hard time benching a stud for a 2nd tier guy with a great matchup. Even if it is painfully obvious, I just can't get myself to do it very often. Take this week for example, would you bench Portis for Chris Johnson? You can't really do it can you? (without already knowing CJ3 blew it up). Maybe it's a bad example because there would be a RB2 and not Portis that you would sit for CJ3.

 

[Dirty Weasel]

In order...

1) Health

2) Studliness

3) Matchup

4) Weather

5) Gut

 

[hauser42]

Stud theory only works for about a month for me. If a guy is not performing it is time to look at all the options.

When I do this here is what I look at:

1: Matchup

2: Usage for the season (WR=Targets, RB Targers and carries). I look to see if there is a trend.

3. Redzone usage.

Used this year with L. Moore on two of my teams this year. Have sat down TO, Plaxico and R. Moss in favor of Moore. Moore is no stud yet, but he has put up more pts lately and is now a solid starter.

Have confidence in your lineup when you put it in. People on this board will not suffer the let down you will.