Trade Larry Johnson this offseason? (1 Viewer)

[RenegadeGM]

Larry Johnson had another great season... 416-1789-17 rushing plus 41-410-2 through the air. Going into next season, he's the consensus #2 RB behind only LT. His 416 carries are a new NFL record, surpassing Jamal Anderson.

My question, from a dynasty perspective: is it time to sell high on LJ?

In his favor is the fact that this was really only the second season he's had a significant amount of carries, and he should be entering his prime at age 28 next season. He's got a system built around him and a coach that will give him the ball 30+ times a game.

However... 457 touches plus whatever he sees this postseason is scary. It is very possible, he could finish the season over the 500 touch mark. There's been a lot of studies about RBs who get this many carries, and the results are generally (though not 100%) that the RB is due for regression/injury the following season.

LT has been able to overcome this problem, and had his best season this year after huge amounts of touches in the past. LJ has some factors which suggest he can overcome this as well... but is this workload enough for you to consider trading him? (Not giving him away, of course)

Also, would the position your dynasty team is in change your thoughts? If LJ is pretty much all you have and you're rebuilding, should you rebuild around him or sell high? If you think you can win it all next year, do you hold LJ and hope to ride him to the title?

Curious to hear your thoughts.

 

[The Ref]

Perosnaly, I think LJ will have another good year next year, but I would be worried about 2008 if he gets a simular workload in 2007. This is his first year with such a workload, I think he has the legs to keep it up for one more season.

 

[Routilla]

Not sure who you would be selling high to for LJ. Unless someone was trading a low draft pick AND a stud RB to replace LJ then there is no point. LJ is a man among men despite the OL/FB concerns going into the season. What if KC upgraded the OL/FB this off-season? Would you still be thinking about selling high?

I'm holding LJ until he does not produce, which could be another 5 years IMO.

 

[Tat]

I am choosing to keep either him or LJ next year.

LJ was supposed to under produce this year due to OL issues, yet he overcame them.

I am keeping a close eye on the offseason to make sure no "precautionary" measures are taken with LJ. He stayed healthy all year which is amazing considering the workload

 

[Marc Levin]

I think you must be concerned.

Just take a quick look at the history of backs who have had over 450 touches and over 400 carries.

It is not good.

 

[B. Nugget]

Not sure who you would be selling high to for LJ. Unless someone was trading a low draft pick AND a stud RB to replace LJ then there is no point. LJ is a man among men despite the OL/FB concerns going into the season. What if KC upgraded the OL/FB this off-season? Would you still be thinking about selling high?I'm holding LJ until he does not produce, which could be another 5 years IMO.

I have LJ in one of my dynasty leagues and you would have to pry the rights to him out of my cold dead hand, unless it was just a too good to be true deal. IMO, this sell high thing with LJ is going to burn a lot of dynasty owners in the long run who consider themselves "sharks".Edited to clarigy that if you can get a SJax and a high 1st pick like someone else mentioned, you should probably make that deal anyway. I'm talking about the people taking less than market value to dump him over overuse concerns as the ones getting burned.

 

[RenegadeGM]

Not sure who you would be selling high to for LJ. Unless someone was trading a low draft pick AND a stud RB to replace LJ then there is no point. LJ is a man among men despite the OL/FB concerns going into the season. What if KC upgraded the OL/FB this off-season? Would you still be thinking about selling high?I'm holding LJ until he does not produce, which could be another 5 years IMO.

I have LJ in one of my dynasty leagues and you would have to pry the rights to him out of my cold dead hand, unless it was just a too good to be true deal. IMO, this sell high thing with LJ is going to burn a lot of dynasty owners in the long run who consider themselves "sharks".

I agree to some extent, but what if your team was awful this year and he's about all you have? Would that change your perspective?

 

[B. Nugget]

Not sure who you would be selling high to for LJ. Unless someone was trading a low draft pick AND a stud RB to replace LJ then there is no point. LJ is a man among men despite the OL/FB concerns going into the season. What if KC upgraded the OL/FB this off-season? Would you still be thinking about selling high?I'm holding LJ until he does not produce, which could be another 5 years IMO.

I have LJ in one of my dynasty leagues and you would have to pry the rights to him out of my cold dead hand, unless it was just a too good to be true deal. IMO, this sell high thing with LJ is going to burn a lot of dynasty owners in the long run who consider themselves "sharks".

I agree to some extent, but what if your team was awful this year and he's about all you have? Would that change your perspective?

I edited my original post right as you posted this question.To answer the question, if you could get a Stud RB and a nice pick(s) to improve your team, then yeah, sell high and spread the talent out over a couple of players.Unfortunately, there are going to be people that read this messageboard and take a deal of DeAngelo Williams and a 3rd rounder or something crazy because of the "LJ has more carries than anyone else and will break down" mentality being posted here.

 

[Z-Dog]

I plan on letting the worm dangle this offseason. I love LJ's talent, but great RBs don't usually last long, and I've only got one more year on his contract before I he becomes an RFA.

I'm somewhat concerned about his carries, which is the main reason why I'm even willing to field offers. I'm coming off a championship this season, and there are two very intriguing RBs coming out in Peterson and Lynch, so if I could get a top pick and one or two players with good performance-to-salary ratios, I would bite.

 

[RenegadeGM]

Not sure who you would be selling high to for LJ. Unless someone was trading a low draft pick AND a stud RB to replace LJ then there is no point. LJ is a man among men despite the OL/FB concerns going into the season. What if KC upgraded the OL/FB this off-season? Would you still be thinking about selling high?I'm holding LJ until he does not produce, which could be another 5 years IMO.

I have LJ in one of my dynasty leagues and you would have to pry the rights to him out of my cold dead hand, unless it was just a too good to be true deal. IMO, this sell high thing with LJ is going to burn a lot of dynasty owners in the long run who consider themselves "sharks".

I agree to some extent, but what if your team was awful this year and he's about all you have? Would that change your perspective?

I edited my original post right as you posted this question.To answer the question, if you could get a Stud RB and a nice pick(s) to improve your team, then yeah, sell high and spread the talent out over a couple of players.Unfortunately, there are going to be people that read this messageboard and take a deal of DeAngelo Williams and a 3rd rounder or something crazy because of the "LJ has more carries than anyone else and will break down" mentality being posted here.

I agree with you, which is why I noted that I wouldn't give him away out of fear. Williams/3rd wouldn't even be close. But if you could get say, a 1st, a very good RB and a very good WR, I think you'd have to consider it. It would depend if someone was willing to give that up.

 

[Colin Dowling]

His value will never be higher in dynasty leagues. I'm not saying I expect a bad season, nor would I sell him for pennies on the dollar. But acquiring some combo of a high draft pick and a top 10 player or two at their positions would definitely be worth considering.

 

[-OZ-]

Not sure who you would be selling high to for LJ. Unless someone was trading a low draft pick AND a stud RB to replace LJ then there is no point. LJ is a man among men despite the OL/FB concerns going into the season. What if KC upgraded the OL/FB this off-season? Would you still be thinking about selling high?I'm holding LJ until he does not produce, which could be another 5 years IMO.

I have LJ in one of my dynasty leagues and you would have to pry the rights to him out of my cold dead hand, unless it was just a too good to be true deal. IMO, this sell high thing with LJ is going to burn a lot of dynasty owners in the long run who consider themselves "sharks".

I agree to some extent, but what if your team was awful this year and he's about all you have? Would that change your perspective?

I edited my original post right as you posted this question.To answer the question, if you could get a Stud RB and a nice pick(s) to improve your team, then yeah, sell high and spread the talent out over a couple of players.Unfortunately, there are going to be people that read this messageboard and take a deal of DeAngelo Williams and a 3rd rounder or something crazy because of the "LJ has more carries than anyone else and will break down" mentality being posted here.

This is true. Don't be in too much of a rush to "sell high" and find out you got a raw deal. I don't have LJ in any league, but if I did, I'd need a top 3 pick and another potential RB1, worst case RB2. Peterson+McGahee would get it done, fairly easily assuming I need depth, other deals of that sort would work too.

 

[RenegadeGM]

His value will never be higher in dynasty leagues. I'm not saying I expect a bad season, nor would I sell him for pennies on the dollar. But acquiring some combo of a high draft pick and a top 10 player or two at their positions would definitely be worth considering.

exactly what I was thinking when I started the thread.

 

[Marc Levin]

For the lazy:

L Johnson 2006 416 - ?

J Anderson 1998 410 - next year, he played 2 games before injury, and was otherwise ineffective - ranked 22 for RBs in 2000 as his highest ranking.

J Wilder 1984 407 - great following year: 365 carries, 1300 yards, 10 TDs, 53 catches, 341 yards, DONE after that

E Dickerson 1986 404 - played half the next year, played 3 games the year after that, then had two great comeback years, then was done (slow decline)

E George 2000 403 - was never the same back. Had low YPC the rest of his career (though he had 12 TDs in 2002 to rank as the #10 RB, he was, otherwise, a middling fantasy RB each year)

Now, as to LJ, I think he will have enough rushing TDs to warrant a high draft pick, but 400+ carries is really rough.

If you think I have used 400 carries as an arbitrary cut-off point, here's the next 5 RBs on the season carry list:

G Riggs 1985 397 - good following year (ranked #8), but had an injury marred rest of his career.

T Davis 1998 392 - Done as of the next year.

R Williams 2003 392 - well, he handcuffed his own fantasy worth, so who knows what might have happened, but he definitely cited his workload as one of the reasons for retiring.

E Dickerson 1983 390 - see above. Dickerson = special. Chased this year (whch was his rookie year)with a 2G rush season. If you believe LJ = Dickerson, more power to ya.

B Foster 1992 390 - injury marred next two years and then was done.

High carries = significant risk of injury in following year.

That's the top-10 single season carries - none (except Dickerson) were the same backs afterwards.

I could go ahead and figure out 450+ touches, but the above should show you that only one RB (Dickerson) had a worthwhile career after hitting such a large carry rate - and the rate of INJURIES either the next year or the year after, plus the steep decline in production for all of those backs, is very scary.

 

[Marc Levin]

Not sure who you would be selling high to for LJ. Unless someone was trading a low draft pick AND a stud RB to replace LJ then there is no point. LJ is a man among men despite the OL/FB concerns going into the season. What if KC upgraded the OL/FB this off-season? Would you still be thinking about selling high?I'm holding LJ until he does not produce, which could be another 5 years IMO.

I have LJ in one of my dynasty leagues and you would have to pry the rights to him out of my cold dead hand, unless it was just a too good to be true deal. IMO, this sell high thing with LJ is going to burn a lot of dynasty owners in the long run who consider themselves "sharks".

I agree to some extent, but what if your team was awful this year and he's about all you have? Would that change your perspective?

I edited my original post right as you posted this question.To answer the question, if you could get a Stud RB and a nice pick(s) to improve your team, then yeah, sell high and spread the talent out over a couple of players.Unfortunately, there are going to be people that read this messageboard and take a deal of DeAngelo Williams and a 3rd rounder or something crazy because of the "LJ has more carries than anyone else and will break down" mentality being posted here.

Sell high does not = what you are talking about. I doubt any "shark "will panic and trade him for under market value due to overuse this year.I don't think anyone should be recommending selling LJ for below market value. And if you can sell high, why not? What if you were offered a non-stud RB, a good young WR (say, Javon Walker) and the next two first round dynasty picks? For a team based around LJ, trading your core player for two first round picks the next two or three years and some role players might be a fabulous move - especially if you already have a good core signed to your team for the next few years.

 

[Maelstrom]

I think you also have to look at the relative ages of the players with 400 carries. Many of them were pushing 30 at that time, and that was their peak season, and they were due to start declining anyways. The 400 yard season was just a little extra push.

In contrast, LJ is just entering the prime of his career, and has not had much of a workload at this point.

Do I think it's a risk? Yes, as far as injuries go you have to rate ANY back that carries this much a little extra injury risk. But that isn't because of the 400 carry season necessarily, just the fact that he is likely to be on the field that much again next year, and the more carries, the more chances something bad happens. But I don't think it's a huge risk.

Personally, I think LJ has 2 maybe 3 really good seasons, even if he cracks 400 again in one of them, barring any injuries. After that the carries will start to catch up to him.

 

[Marc Levin]

I think you also have to look at the relative ages of the players with 400 carries. Many of them were pushing 30 at that time, and that was their peak season, and they were due to start declining anyways. The 400 yard season was just a little extra push.In contrast, LJ is just entering the prime of his career, and has not had much of a workload at this point. Do I think it's a risk? Yes, as far as injuries go you have to rate ANY back that carries this much a little extra injury risk. But that isn't because of the 400 carry season necessarily, just the fact that he is likely to be on the field that much again next year, and the more carries, the more chances something bad happens. But I don't think it's a huge risk. Personally, I think LJ has 2 maybe 3 really good seasons, even if he cracks 400 again in one of them, barring any injuries. After that the carries will start to catch up to him.

That's why I expanded to include the top-10 carry seasons - and your theory does not hold true when you look at the 390-400 carry backs.Now, don;t get me wrong, I think LJ will have another good year in 2007. In dynasty, however, you are looking past 2007, right? If he has a high workload in 2007 - which looks highly likely and looks like something you can observe before dynasty rookie drafts - his 2008 to 2010 could be rough years. I disagree with Colin that his dynasty value can never "get" higher - if he has a decent start to 2007, his value will go up even higher.

 

[davidwb]

marc:

1) pretty small sample

2) what were the injuries to the rb's you listed? could they be directly tied to "overuse" the preceeding year?

i'm not saying that there isn't risk, but there needs to be causality, not just correlation.

 

[Marc Levin]

marc:1) pretty small sample2) what were the injuries to the rb's you listed? could they be directly tied to "overuse" the preceeding year?i'm not saying that there isn't risk, but there needs to be causality, not just correlation.

That's way too much research - a quick look at the next 10 RBs shows me:E Dickerson 1988 388J Lewis 2003 387E James 2000 387R Williams 2002 383W Payton 1984 381M Allen 1985 380E Dickerson 1984 379G Rogers 1981 378E Smith 1995 377J Riggins 1983 375J Bettis 1997 375A lot of those RBs had good years - and good NEXT years. But a lot of those RBs got injured, too.BTW, 4 of the top-20 carry season were by Dickerson - he was amazing. Like I said, if you think LJ = Dickerson, more power to ya. Not to be overly selective, but if you remove Dickerson from the top-20 RBs, you will see an overwhelming number of RBs who had significant decline within 2 years of their career high carry season.I think the top-20 is a pretty darned good sample size - and there are a few FBG studies on RBs with 350+ carries that shows the long-term risks associated with such RBs. Redraft/keeper, LJ = clear top-5 RB. Dynasty, when you must look much further down the road, selling high is a serious consideration for an RB with 416 carries.

 

[chris1969]

In a couple of years, I'd start thinking about touches. I'll trade anyone to anybody though if the price is right.

 

[-OZ-]

Marc, how does "touches" impact your analysis?

LT's touches since his rookie year: 398, 451, 413, 392, 390, 404

LJ has two years over 300.

Marshall Faulk went over 400 in 1998, remained a force for a few years.

I'm sure there are more, LT and MF are just the prominent examples.

Obviously runs up the middle put more wear and tear on a body, but after looking at LT's stats, with 6 straight years over 300 rushes plus those receptions, does it make that big a difference?

After looking at this, it seems a case can be made for bumping receiving backs even more up the rankings. (so if you can trade LJ for SJax+, I'd do it)

 

[Marc Levin]

Oz - you are on the right track.

Since you asked about LT, and that is a hijack, I won't answer that question, but I will say the research is out there if you peruse our free stuff and some of last offseasons threads.

There are FBG studies that support your thought, though. Receiving backs who get to 450+ touches live longer and have better fantasy success in future years than those that get there primarily due to carrying a heavy load.

 

[gman8343]

I've just been offered LJ straight up for Steven Jackson in a keeper league and turned it down.

 

[EdwardCat]

I've just been offered LJ straight up for Steven Jackson in a keeper league and turned it down.

Your loss.

 

[chris1969]

I'm more worried about his running style with all those carries, but again not for a couple more years.

If I had the offer I would have traded Sjax in a heartbeat.

 

[Dancing Bear]

I'm going to try and correlate this more thoroughly tomorrow when I get access to my full database of stats ...

However, I would not be worried about next year or even the year after. LJ will be in the fine company of RB's who have done this back-to-back before.

E. Smith

E. Dickerson

G. Riggs

W. Payton

S. Alexander

As Marc Levin has pointed out though, you just should not expect this to continue indefinitely. This is a contact sport and the data is nearly 100% sure with respect to any RB having a season ending injury sometime after 3 consecutive years of this sort of load.

Emmitt Smith is the only one to sustain this sort of load without a significant injury throughout his entire career [even though his number of carries per year are not all at the high level being discussed].

Walter Payton lasted until his 8th year before his injury.

Eric Dickerson only lasted until his 5th year before his injury and then he was out for two seasons.

Shaun Alexander lasted until his 6th year before his injury.

You could say the same thing about LT2 as well. He has had this sort of load for 6 straight seasons. He will surely be pushing the probabilities as he approaches his 7th year of doing this, and should be considered a far greater risk than LJ.

 

[gman8343]

I've just been offered LJ straight up for Steven Jackson in a keeper league and turned it down.

Your loss.

Maybe, but it's a ppr league, and Jackson outscored LJ this year.

 

[AussieOyOyOy]

This is quite the "opinion" topic. But my OPINION is that you're just looking for ways to outsmart yourself, if you want to move LJ at this point.

 

[EdwardCat]

I've just been offered LJ straight up for Steven Jackson in a keeper league and turned it down.

Your loss.

Maybe, but it's a ppr league, and Jackson outscored LJ this year.

Oh, I misunderstood what you meant as you didn't really say which player you owned. Yeah, Jackson should be better.

 

[billyjoe]

For the lazy:L Johnson 2006 416 - ?J Anderson 1998 410 - next year, he played 2 games before injury, and was otherwise ineffective - ranked 22 for RBs in 2000 as his highest ranking.J Wilder 1984 407 - great following year: 365 carries, 1300 yards, 10 TDs, 53 catches, 341 yards, DONE after thatE Dickerson 1986 404 - played half the next year, played 3 games the year after that, then had two great comeback years, then was done (slow decline)E George 2000 403 - was never the same back. Had low YPC the rest of his career (though he had 12 TDs in 2002 to rank as the #10 RB, he was, otherwise, a middling fantasy RB each year)Now, as to LJ, I think he will have enough rushing TDs to warrant a high draft pick, but 400+ carries is really rough.If you think I have used 400 carries as an arbitrary cut-off point, here's the next 5 RBs on the season carry list:G Riggs 1985 397 - good following year (ranked #8), but had an injury marred rest of his career.T Davis 1998 392 - Done as of the next year.R Williams 2003 392 - well, he handcuffed his own fantasy worth, so who knows what might have happened, but he definitely cited his workload as one of the reasons for retiring.E Dickerson 1983 390 - see above. Dickerson = special. Chased this year (whch was his rookie year)with a 2G rush season. If you believe LJ = Dickerson, more power to ya.B Foster 1992 390 - injury marred next two years and then was done.High carries = significant risk of injury in following year.That's the top-10 single season carries - none (except Dickerson) were the same backs afterwards.I could go ahead and figure out 450+ touches, but the above should show you that only one RB (Dickerson) had a worthwhile career after hitting such a large carry rate - and the rate of INJURIES either the next year or the year after, plus the steep decline in production for all of those backs, is very scary.

Emmitt Smith anyone? 4 out of 6 years with 400+ touches (include playoffs).LT with his high number of catches has had a few 400+ touch years. So LTs 390 carry seasons aren't a concern (with huge catch numbers). But 413, ooooooo f3ar.LJ 880 carriesLT 2000 carries.And LJ is the guy we're trying to unload? He's 27. 1 full year as a starter. And Dickerson is special, but LJ isn't? Isn't LJ on pace or close to, breaking LTs fastest to 100 TD record? Ricky Williams retired because of a lot of carries? LJ is going to retire? LJ is gonna get suspended a year for smoking pot? Walter Payton had a number of 400+ carry seasons. So if LJ had 18 less carries, no one would be talking about this. Lets keep that in mind. For every JAM, I have a Dickerson. For every Davis, I have an Emmitt Smith. Most of those cases are 400 carries in their 4th/5th/6th/7th year as a starter. We already know RBs don't last long. Dickerson did it in his 1st year as a starter, so did LJ. I'm not overly concerned.

 

[joffer]

i love the fact that other than almost getting his head ripped off in the AZ game, he really hasn't had even a hint of an injury that i can remember.

i'm stickin'

 

[Marc Levin]

I respect your contrary opinion, billyjoe.

I have a genuine question for you. Do you believe there is really a one for one correlation of backs who were succesful and who were injured after so many carries? Of the RBs in the top-20 carries in a single season, it seems to me that there are a few notable exceptions (Dickerson and Smith, specifically), and a lot of backs that follow the theory.

Also, I was citing carries specifically, but I could have researched touches (we did this last year or the year before) and the results would be similar, but with a noticeable schism. As OZ mentioned above, the backs that get to 450 touches primarily by running the ball suffer injuries within a short period of time while the backs that do it by also catching the ball and have low carry numbers (your LTs and Faulks) have better longevity and maintain high fantasy production for longer periods of time.

Now, I am NOT saying you should unload LJ or look to be buying him cheap. In fact, as I stated several times, and as I will state again, I think he will have a great 2007 - too many TD opps for him not to and he is too young to have 416 carries affect his body too negatively. If one 400+ carry seaosn leads to injury or poor prodution next year, be very very scared. But, I think year N+1 is not the only consideration here - it is year N+2, N+3, etc.

Finally, as I stated in each cited example, if you believe LJ = Dickerson, more power to you. But, to not consider the history of those backs with 400+ carries - and the study we did on backs with 350+ carries - you have to at least look at trading him in dynasty leagues.

 

[Marc Levin]

Walter Payton had a number of 400+ carry seasons.

P.S. - Payton didn't ever have a 400 carry season - in fact, his most carries were 381, and that came very late in his career.If you were talking touches, he had only two years his entire career with 400 or more touches - one year with exactly 400 touches and the one year he had 381 carries. The cut off number for too many "touches" is 450, not 400.Walter Payton usually had in the neighborhood of 320 carries - he had only two years his entire career with more than 350 carries.

So LTs 390 carry seasons aren't a concern (with huge catch numbers).

Also never happened - 372 in year 2 was his max, since then, he's averaged 335 carries. Marshal Faulk also had lots of touches, but low carries.450 touches is the cutoff for too many "touches," IMO.

 

[Riffraff]

For dynasty trade value reference only.

Leading up to week 17, before all these posts about LJ's touches popped up, I was offered:

His RB LJohnson + WR Galloway

for

My RB Gore + WR DJackson + RB Benson

It's usually pretty tough to get a super-stud like LJ in this particular league.

I declined the nice offer for various reasons.

Pretty ironic that these posts are popping up now.

A year ago, this trade would have been a no-brainer.

 

[Islander]

I am a firm believer that LJ will have a very short career as a top RB. I got rid of him and got SJax and S Moss. I would have accepted for SJax straight up.

 

[-OZ-]

He's 27. 1 full year as a starter. And Dickerson is special, but LJ isn't? Isn't LJ on pace or close to, breaking LTs fastest to 100 TD record?

 

[RBM]

I am a firm believer that LJ will have a very short career as a top RB. I got rid of him and got SJax and S Moss. I would have accepted for SJax straight up.

Not sure if you have seen much of Jackson, but he takes as big a beating as LJ. He really throws his body around out there, plus he has already had a history of getting banged up.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

First things first, LJ is a very solidly built RB, and suited as well to hold up under that punishment as any RB on any of those lists.

Second, this is only year 1.5 for LJ as a feature back - which has to be part of the reason Herm is riding him into the ground. In other words, he's still firmly in the part of his career where he's likely to be resilient enough to hold up just fine. He's been spared a lot of punishment backing up Priest Holmes earlier in his career, and is really just hitting his stride as a pro. He will be a top 3 uberstud fantasy RB for at least the next 2 years, and help teams win titles along the way. The only way I would trade him is if you can get a bonafide top 10 RB + another uberstud at another position of need(Manning/SSmith for example) + some material for the future in the form of draft picks or prospects.

You will be making it much harder to win your league if you trade LJ, unless you greatly upgrade at another position. Any top RB you get for LJ is going to take roughly the same amount of wear and tear, and will probably be less able to absorb it.

Trade LJ at your own risk.

 

[Banger]

Trade for studs, don't trade them (unless the deal is too good).

 

[freeannyong]

For those of you who want more information about RB workloads and the seasons they have had after them, here you are:

http://www.fftoday.com/articles/special/06_rb_heavy.htm

Also, LJ's value will NEVER be be higher than it is now, so I would be trying to work something out.

 

[billyjoe]

He's 27. 1 full year as a starter. And Dickerson is special, but LJ isn't? Isn't LJ on pace or close to, breaking LTs fastest to 100 TD record?

Is the math a little too much for you?LJ 48 games 28 games started 47 TDsLT 95 games, 95 games started 100 TDsIf you look at a per start basis, LJ is scoring TDs like no one else. So if you come back with "he's started for 1 year, slow down", this is in a thread where people are dumping him because he's ready to break down from his career 880 carries.Either way, as a backup, and 1 year started, he's putting up insane TD numbers. So the notion that he's "no Dickerson" is a joke.

 

[BigTex]

I'm riding LJ til the wheels fall off.

#1. Only one full year in the league, he has several more to come.

#2. Nutrition and Supplements are much different today compared to yesterday, so comparing the past athelet to todays athelet your analysis will be off.

#3. Thinking that his value won't get any higher is an assumption.

#4. He's a STUD.

 

[billyjoe]

Walter Payton had a number of 400+ carry seasons.

P.S. - Payton didn't ever have a 400 carry season - in fact, his most carries were 381, and that came very late in his career.If you were talking touches, he had only two years his entire career with 400 or more touches - one year with exactly 400 touches and the one year he had 381 carries. The cut off number for too many "touches" is 450, not 400.Walter Payton usually had in the neighborhood of 320 carries - he had only two years his entire career with more than 350 carries.

So LTs 390 carry seasons aren't a concern (with huge catch numbers).

Also never happened - 372 in year 2 was his max, since then, he's averaged 335 carries. Marshal Faulk also had lots of touches, but low carries.450 touches is the cutoff for too many "touches," IMO.

This was my second rant on LJ from a pervious thread, so the numbers were pulled from my recollection. I'll be sure to post the exact figures, not that it changes my opinion.You're right, Walter had one year with 420+ total carries (including the playoffs), as you said, late in his career. And came back with two solid years after that.LT had 372 and 79 catches. If 30-40 more catches don't add up as wear and tear, then okay. 450 was the cutoff, LT had 450+ touches in his 2nd year. We're picking numbers, excluding others, to draw on a pool of statistics of about 15 players. Not exactly the sample size (not to mention from different eras) people should be making any kind of FF move based on.Emmith Smith had a number of years with 400 carries. Add Dickerson. If you look at the small sample size, there's as many "non-issue the following year" RBs as there are "broke down forever" RBs.Smith, Dickerson, Payton, vs JAM, Ricky Williams? He doesn't apply. Riggins near the end of his career? Find guys with less then 1,000 career carries, who died after their 400 carry year, and the number is like 2-3 tops. And we already have Dickerson, Smith, Payton who had 400 carry years who were fine the next year. Toss in LT with 450 touches in his 2nd year. It's a sample size of 15-20 RBs. For every example you can name someone dying, there's one who had no issue. There's no "stats" to backup dumping LJ. The sample size is far too small to draw any conclusions. And if you actually sat down with all the RBs who had 400+ carries in a year (or 450 touches), I'm not sure it would even come out on the bad end. JAM/Davis are really the two guys people cling to when it comes to this theory. I'd be interested to see someone flesh out every 400 carry (including playoffs) and 450 touch RB in the last 30 years. I'd guess its not the horrific nightmare people are purporting here.

 

[B. Nugget]

For those of you who want more information about RB workloads and the seasons they have had after them, here you are:

http://www.fftoday.com/articles/special/06_rb_heavy.htm

Also, LJ's value will NEVER be be higher than it is now, so I would be trying to work something out.

I guess this is where I differ in opinion because the offense in KC runs through 2 players LJ and Gonzo. Gonzo doesn't score many TDs, so that leaves many, many opportunities for LJ. You don't think his value can go higher than back to back 1,700 yd seasons and around 20 TDs in his first 2 years as the main ball carrier? Even with the changes in KC he set the Chiefs single season rushing record, so are you saying you can't see him scoring another 8-9 TDs and getting more yards (nevermind TrINT Green couldn't hit him out the backfield)?

 

[EdwardCat]

What will be super swell is when someone bumps this thread next year showing how right they were. Their hindsight will show all you other guys how wrong you were.

 

[BigTex]

For those of you who want more information about RB workloads and the seasons they have had after them, here you are:

http://www.fftoday.com/articles/special/06_rb_heavy.htm

Also, LJ's value will NEVER be be higher than it is now, so I would be trying to work something out.

I guess this is where I differ in opinion because the offense in KC runs through 2 players LJ and Gonzo. Gonzo doesn't score many TDs, so that leaves many, many opportunities for LJ. You don't think his value can go higher than back to back 1,700 yd seasons and around 20 TDs in his first 2 years as the main ball carrier? Even with the changes in KC he set the Chiefs single season rushing record, so are you saying you can't see him scoring another 8-9 TDs and getting more yards (nevermind TrINT Green couldn't hit him out the backfield)?

Or, how about 150/TDs this weekend. I'm sure some in this pool have bad ankles from jumping to conclusions.

 

[dickey moe]

I'm riding LJ til the wheels fall off.

This is everything you need to know.

 

[jurb26]

Why is E. Smith being thrown around in this 400 carry/450 touch conversation? The guy had a career high of 377 carries and 439 touches.

http://profootballreference.com/players/SmitEm00.htm

 

[dickey moe]

Why is E. Smith being thrown around in this 400 carry/450 touch conversation? The guy had a career high of 377 carries and 439 touches.

http://profootballreference.com/players/SmitEm00.htm

Furthermore demonstrating the epitome of studness that was Mr. Emmitt Smith.

 

[sib]

First things first, LJ is a very solidly built RB, and suited as well to hold up under that punishment as any RB on any of those lists.Second, this is only year 1.5 for LJ as a feature back - which has to be part of the reason Herm is riding him into the ground. In other words, he's still firmly in the part of his career where he's likely to be resilient enough to hold up just fine. He's been spared a lot of punishment backing up Priest Holmes earlier in his career, and is really just hitting his stride as a pro. He will be a top 3 uberstud fantasy RB for at least the next 2 years, and help teams win titles along the way. The only way I would trade him is if you can get a bonafide top 10 RB + another uberstud at another position of need(Manning/SSmith for example) + some material for the future in the form of draft picks or prospects.You will be making it much harder to win your league if you trade LJ, unless you greatly upgrade at another position. Any top RB you get for LJ is going to take roughly the same amount of wear and tear, and will probably be less able to absorb it.Trade LJ at your own risk.

Solid analysis. You make a very good point about other RBs you may get in return will get roughly the same amount of wear and tear. Personally if I'm going to trade LJ in a dynasty format, I would def want either Gore or SJax back (bringing up those 2 based on their age and great production this year; getting LT for LJ straight up is prob not realistic) SJax has had close to the same amount of carries in his career that LJ has had; this year SJax had over 400 touches and Gore had a little over 370; not small numbers. I would def bet on LJ holding up over Gore given that workload next yr. If someone gave me SJax and say Laurence Maroney...I would def consider that in a dynasty league. Anything else is probably too low for LJ.