Trade Larry Johnson this offseason? (1 Viewer)

[thayman]

Since some of you are asking for predictions for next year, I would like to add one more thing. Larry Johnson was never supposed to get 416 carries this year. That’s not normal. He was supposed to share carries with Priest Holmes, Michael Bennett, Ronnie Cruz, and Robert Holcomb. Priest Holmes never came back. Michael Bennett was hurt more often than he was healthy. Both FBs got hurt early. They Chiefs decided to go without a FB this year and use TE Kris Wilson as a blocking H-back (a warning for dynasty owners, he could be listed as a FB next year). Dee Brown made the team when he shouldn’t have.Herm wanted to run the ball more this year, but they didn’t have the backs to do it. Brown had 10 carries, Bennett had 36, and Wilson had 0. The end result was that they ran the ball less this year. They had games where they played with 2 running backs and 0 full backs. A normal NFL team uses 3 running backs and 2 full backs on their active roster. Larry Johnson was supposed to be limited to about 350 carries this season max. He was getting tired during games this year and it was affecting their play calling.I don’t think they are going to let Johnson get close to 400 carries next year. For those of you predicting he won’t get 450 touches again next year, you are right, but it is not because he is going to breakdown. I don’t think he is going to be any worse for the wear after this season. However, they will want to limit his carries to keep him fresh for the end of games. I think 350 carries is a good number for him. He definitely could produce similar yardage and TD numbers with 350 carries. This is because he would not be as wore out at the end of games. The Chiefs could end up replacing 4 starters on the line in the off-season, so it is also possible that his numbers could go down. It is just too early to tell at this point.

Also I really don't know anything about this, but did the Trent Green injury increase his carries??

 

[x260bm]

Since some of you are asking for predictions for next year, I would like to add one more thing. Larry Johnson was never supposed to get 416 carries this year. That’s not normal. He was supposed to share carries with Priest Holmes, Michael Bennett, Ronnie Cruz, and Robert Holcomb. Priest Holmes never came back. Michael Bennett was hurt more often than he was healthy. Both FBs got hurt early. They Chiefs decided to go without a FB this year and use TE Kris Wilson as a blocking H-back (a warning for dynasty owners, he could be listed as a FB next year). Dee Brown made the team when he shouldn’t have.Herm wanted to run the ball more this year, but they didn’t have the backs to do it. Brown had 10 carries, Bennett had 36, and Wilson had 0. The end result was that they ran the ball less this year. They had games where they played with 2 running backs and 0 full backs. A normal NFL team uses 3 running backs and 2 full backs on their active roster. Larry Johnson was supposed to be limited to about 350 carries this season max. He was getting tired during games this year and it was affecting their play calling.I don’t think they are going to let Johnson get close to 400 carries next year. For those of you predicting he won’t get 450 touches again next year, you are right, but it is not because he is going to breakdown. I don’t think he is going to be any worse for the wear after this season. However, they will want to limit his carries to keep him fresh for the end of games. I think 350 carries is a good number for him. He definitely could produce similar yardage and TD numbers with 350 carries. This is because he would not be as wore out at the end of games. The Chiefs could end up replacing 4 starters on the line in the off-season, so it is also possible that his numbers could go down. It is just too early to tell at this point.

Also I really don't know anything about this, but did the Trent Green injury increase his carries??

His lowest carry games happened with Green out because the offense had problems sustaining drives.

 

[Hendo]

I've just been offered LJ straight up for Steven Jackson in a keeper league and turned it down.

Your loss.

Jackson is what 4-5 years younger AND has a higher upside imo. no way would i trade Jackson for LJ in any type of league he was barely ahead of him this year to begin with. and Jackson is more of a dual threat.

 

[Joe T]

Emmitt Smith down?

Did you mean Eric Dickerson?Emmitt Smith has never had 400 carries in a regular season.

What does that have to do with anything?Are you saying because he never had 400 touches in a season he can't get injured.

The guy had most RB touches in history and never faced a serious injury. Just because he never hit some magical mark doesn't mean he doesn't prove a durability point.

Like 400 is some magical number that guys magically will get hurt after.....

 

[MelvinTScupper]

Emmitt Smith down?

Did you mean Eric Dickerson?Emmitt Smith has never had 400 carries in a regular season.

What does that have to do with anything?Are you saying because he never had 400 touches in a season he can't get injured.

The guy had most RB touches in history and never faced a serious injury. Just because he never hit some magical mark doesn't mean he doesn't prove a durability point.

Like 400 is some magical number that guys magically will get hurt after.....

This is precisely my point. Emmit didn't, Dickerson never really did, LT hasn't. It's not magic. It's good fortune. It has nothing to do with their totals. If anything, it would have to do with a guy who FORCED playing through injuries to create more serious injuries. We haven't seen that with Johnson. If they don't beat the Colts on Saturday, he's certainly not getting LESS healthy in the offseason, and he's not hurt now.

 

[IanTucker]

A lot of very thoughtful, well-written replies on both sides of the coin.As the original poster of this thread, one thing I'm not going to debate as all is Larry Johnson's outlook for 2007. He is the consensus #2 RB and barring an injury, I feel he will finish as the #2 RB... if not #1. I don't think Johnson will wear down from this season alone, and I think he'll have a very good 2007 season.What I really want to know is what you would do with him if your team just really stinks. Obviously, if you're a title contender, you hold LJ and ride him as far as he'll take you. On the other hand, let's say you have Johnson and really not much else - a bunch of rookies and upside guys along the lines of Brandon Marshall, Marcedes Lewis, etc. Next year is probably not going to be the year unless a lot of players get a lot better, and fast.In this situation, do you hold LJ and hope the rest of the pieces begin to develop? Hold him and hope he's still the same LJ in 2-3 years? Or do you send him packing now for a package? In the end, I guess the answer lies in what "the package" is. If you can get multiple picks and a solid RB/WR, it might be the right play to consider it - even if you think LJ will continue to be the same beast he was in 2006.

HOLD. Otherwise you will be in constant rebuilding mode.Once again...I would not trade LJ for anything less than another young true RB1 (Sjax, Westbrook, Gore for example), an uberstud at your largest position of need other than RB, and a good set of young lottery tickets.

I am in a league where we keep 2 players only.I have LJ, Gore, and Drew-Jones on my team.If I kept Gore and Drew-Jones, what draft picks do you think would be reasonable in exchange for LJ?

 

[Marc Levin]

Emmitt Smith down?

Did you mean Eric Dickerson?Emmitt Smith has never had 400 carries in a regular season.

What does that have to do with anything?

Emmitt Smith has had 400 touches.He has never had 400 carries.

You responded to a post that highlighted the 5 players in the NFL who have had 400 carries, and you said "Emmitt Smith down?"

You might as well have said "Marshall Faulk down?" or "LaDanian Tomlinson down?" or "Eddie George down?"

 

[Marc Levin]

A lot of very thoughtful, well-written replies on both sides of the coin.As the original poster of this thread, one thing I'm not going to debate as all is Larry Johnson's outlook for 2007. He is the consensus #2 RB and barring an injury, I feel he will finish as the #2 RB... if not #1. I don't think Johnson will wear down from this season alone, and I think he'll have a very good 2007 season.What I really want to know is what you would do with him if your team just really stinks. Obviously, if you're a title contender, you hold LJ and ride him as far as he'll take you. On the other hand, let's say you have Johnson and really not much else - a bunch of rookies and upside guys along the lines of Brandon Marshall, Marcedes Lewis, etc. Next year is probably not going to be the year unless a lot of players get a lot better, and fast.In this situation, do you hold LJ and hope the rest of the pieces begin to develop? Hold him and hope he's still the same LJ in 2-3 years? Or do you send him packing now for a package? In the end, I guess the answer lies in what "the package" is. If you can get multiple picks and a solid RB/WR, it might be the right play to consider it - even if you think LJ will continue to be the same beast he was in 2006.

HOLD. Otherwise you will be in constant rebuilding mode.Once again...I would not trade LJ for anything less than another young true RB1 (Sjax, Westbrook, Gore for example), an uberstud at your largest position of need other than RB, and a good set of young lottery tickets.

I am in a league where we keep 2 players only.I have LJ, Gore, and Drew-Jones on my team.If I kept Gore and Drew-Jones, what draft picks do you think would be reasonable in exchange for LJ?

This is where I thought this conversation might head at some point. LJ's current trade value in a dynasty league.In a keeper leagues, Bloom is telling you to "HOLD" LJ. So am I. Neither of us are the right people to ask this question - in a 2-player keeper, the best draft pick you can get is the 3.01. LJ is worth the 1.02 (at least).

 

[Marc Levin]

Emmitt Smith down?

Did you mean Eric Dickerson?Emmitt Smith has never had 400 carries in a regular season.

What does that have to do with anything?Are you saying because he never had 400 touches in a season he can't get injured.

The guy had most RB touches in history and never faced a serious injury. Just because he never hit some magical mark doesn't mean he doesn't prove a durability point.

Like 400 is some magical number that guys magically will get hurt after.....

Also, Joe T, do you think it is a good idea to use the statistical anamolies and specific examples to prove a rule? Emmitt Smith is clearly the statistical outlier of RBs with 400+ touches.Again, I point you all to Yudkin's article from this june:

http://footballguys.com/06yudkin_400touches.php

BTW, of the four RBs who had 400+ touches in the reg. and post season last year, 3 of them fell off remarkably.

Finally, why are you concentrating on injuries? I certainly never used the history of RBs witrh 400+ carries as a predictor of INJURY. Drops in production and drops in touches are just as bad for fantasy purposes as injuries.

 

[Marc Levin]

To change the slant here - for dynasty owners, here is what you need to ask yourself:

Regardless of LJ's record setting carries in 2006, do I believe he just had his career year or do I believe he is yet to have his career year.

For me, that is the only question for dynasty purposes. If he is headed for a career year in the next few years, you are trading away the #1 overall RB in some upcoming year - I wouldn't want to do that in a dynasty league. If he just had his best year, then you are getting value back if you trade him.

Just as another aside, consider his production in '05 and '06 - it is insane:

752 carries, 74 receptions, 4292 yards, 40 TDs - over 1700 rushing yards each year, average of 4.7 YPC.

Trading away a back with that kind of production, and who was MORE productive in 2005 when he had FEWER touches seems like a risky bet.

 

[IanTucker]

A lot of very thoughtful, well-written replies on both sides of the coin.As the original poster of this thread, one thing I'm not going to debate as all is Larry Johnson's outlook for 2007. He is the consensus #2 RB and barring an injury, I feel he will finish as the #2 RB... if not #1. I don't think Johnson will wear down from this season alone, and I think he'll have a very good 2007 season.What I really want to know is what you would do with him if your team just really stinks. Obviously, if you're a title contender, you hold LJ and ride him as far as he'll take you. On the other hand, let's say you have Johnson and really not much else - a bunch of rookies and upside guys along the lines of Brandon Marshall, Marcedes Lewis, etc. Next year is probably not going to be the year unless a lot of players get a lot better, and fast.In this situation, do you hold LJ and hope the rest of the pieces begin to develop? Hold him and hope he's still the same LJ in 2-3 years? Or do you send him packing now for a package? In the end, I guess the answer lies in what "the package" is. If you can get multiple picks and a solid RB/WR, it might be the right play to consider it - even if you think LJ will continue to be the same beast he was in 2006.

HOLD. Otherwise you will be in constant rebuilding mode.Once again...I would not trade LJ for anything less than another young true RB1 (Sjax, Westbrook, Gore for example), an uberstud at your largest position of need other than RB, and a good set of young lottery tickets.

I am in a league where we keep 2 players only.I have LJ, Gore, and Drew-Jones on my team.If I kept Gore and Drew-Jones, what draft picks do you think would be reasonable in exchange for LJ?

This is where I thought this conversation might head at some point. LJ's current trade value in a dynasty league.In a keeper leagues, Bloom is telling you to "HOLD" LJ. So am I. Neither of us are the right people to ask this question - in a 2-player keeper, the best draft pick you can get is the 3.01. LJ is worth the 1.02 (at least).

Thanks for your response.I was thinking of asking for more than just the potential 3.1 pick, though.I'm contemplating this only if it looks like Drew-Jones is the starter next year. I am high on him to say the least. If he progresses, he will be a top 5 back for years to come.The question is, beyond the 3.1 pick what would you ask for?Any ideas, anyone?

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

A lot of very thoughtful, well-written replies on both sides of the coin.As the original poster of this thread, one thing I'm not going to debate as all is Larry Johnson's outlook for 2007. He is the consensus #2 RB and barring an injury, I feel he will finish as the #2 RB... if not #1. I don't think Johnson will wear down from this season alone, and I think he'll have a very good 2007 season.What I really want to know is what you would do with him if your team just really stinks. Obviously, if you're a title contender, you hold LJ and ride him as far as he'll take you. On the other hand, let's say you have Johnson and really not much else - a bunch of rookies and upside guys along the lines of Brandon Marshall, Marcedes Lewis, etc. Next year is probably not going to be the year unless a lot of players get a lot better, and fast.In this situation, do you hold LJ and hope the rest of the pieces begin to develop? Hold him and hope he's still the same LJ in 2-3 years? Or do you send him packing now for a package? In the end, I guess the answer lies in what "the package" is. If you can get multiple picks and a solid RB/WR, it might be the right play to consider it - even if you think LJ will continue to be the same beast he was in 2006.

HOLD. Otherwise you will be in constant rebuilding mode.Once again...I would not trade LJ for anything less than another young true RB1 (Sjax, Westbrook, Gore for example), an uberstud at your largest position of need other than RB, and a good set of young lottery tickets.

I am in a league where we keep 2 players only.I have LJ, Gore, and Drew-Jones on my team.If I kept Gore and Drew-Jones, what draft picks do you think would be reasonable in exchange for LJ?

umm, all of them?

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

A lot of very thoughtful, well-written replies on both sides of the coin.As the original poster of this thread, one thing I'm not going to debate as all is Larry Johnson's outlook for 2007. He is the consensus #2 RB and barring an injury, I feel he will finish as the #2 RB... if not #1. I don't think Johnson will wear down from this season alone, and I think he'll have a very good 2007 season.What I really want to know is what you would do with him if your team just really stinks. Obviously, if you're a title contender, you hold LJ and ride him as far as he'll take you. On the other hand, let's say you have Johnson and really not much else - a bunch of rookies and upside guys along the lines of Brandon Marshall, Marcedes Lewis, etc. Next year is probably not going to be the year unless a lot of players get a lot better, and fast.In this situation, do you hold LJ and hope the rest of the pieces begin to develop? Hold him and hope he's still the same LJ in 2-3 years? Or do you send him packing now for a package? In the end, I guess the answer lies in what "the package" is. If you can get multiple picks and a solid RB/WR, it might be the right play to consider it - even if you think LJ will continue to be the same beast he was in 2006.

HOLD. Otherwise you will be in constant rebuilding mode.Once again...I would not trade LJ for anything less than another young true RB1 (Sjax, Westbrook, Gore for example), an uberstud at your largest position of need other than RB, and a good set of young lottery tickets.

I am in a league where we keep 2 players only.I have LJ, Gore, and Drew-Jones on my team.If I kept Gore and Drew-Jones, what draft picks do you think would be reasonable in exchange for LJ?

This is where I thought this conversation might head at some point. LJ's current trade value in a dynasty league.In a keeper leagues, Bloom is telling you to "HOLD" LJ. So am I. Neither of us are the right people to ask this question - in a 2-player keeper, the best draft pick you can get is the 3.01. LJ is worth the 1.02 (at least).

Thanks for your response.I was thinking of asking for more than just the potential 3.1 pick, though.I'm contemplating this only if it looks like Drew-Jones is the starter next year. I am high on him to say the least. If he progresses, he will be a top 5 back for years to come.The question is, beyond the 3.1 pick what would you ask for?Any ideas, anyone?

trade MJD or Gore instead, preferrably MJD.

 

[nightshift]

A lot of very thoughtful, well-written replies on both sides of the coin.As the original poster of this thread, one thing I'm not going to debate as all is Larry Johnson's outlook for 2007. He is the consensus #2 RB and barring an injury, I feel he will finish as the #2 RB... if not #1. I don't think Johnson will wear down from this season alone, and I think he'll have a very good 2007 season.What I really want to know is what you would do with him if your team just really stinks. Obviously, if you're a title contender, you hold LJ and ride him as far as he'll take you. On the other hand, let's say you have Johnson and really not much else - a bunch of rookies and upside guys along the lines of Brandon Marshall, Marcedes Lewis, etc. Next year is probably not going to be the year unless a lot of players get a lot better, and fast.In this situation, do you hold LJ and hope the rest of the pieces begin to develop? Hold him and hope he's still the same LJ in 2-3 years? Or do you send him packing now for a package? In the end, I guess the answer lies in what "the package" is. If you can get multiple picks and a solid RB/WR, it might be the right play to consider it - even if you think LJ will continue to be the same beast he was in 2006.

HOLD. Otherwise you will be in constant rebuilding mode.Once again...I would not trade LJ for anything less than another young true RB1 (Sjax, Westbrook, Gore for example), an uberstud at your largest position of need other than RB, and a good set of young lottery tickets.

I am in a league where we keep 2 players only.I have LJ, Gore, and Drew-Jones on my team.If I kept Gore and Drew-Jones, what draft picks do you think would be reasonable in exchange for LJ?

This is where I thought this conversation might head at some point. LJ's current trade value in a dynasty league.In a keeper leagues, Bloom is telling you to "HOLD" LJ. So am I. Neither of us are the right people to ask this question - in a 2-player keeper, the best draft pick you can get is the 3.01. LJ is worth the 1.02 (at least).

Thanks for your response.I was thinking of asking for more than just the potential 3.1 pick, though.I'm contemplating this only if it looks like Drew-Jones is the starter next year. I am high on him to say the least. If he progresses, he will be a top 5 back for years to come.The question is, beyond the 3.1 pick what would you ask for?Any ideas, anyone?

trade MJD or Gore instead, preferrably MJD.

So neither will produce to LJ's level, Bloom? I've had their owners tell me either are worht more than LJ (dynasty).

 

[MelvinTScupper]

A lot of very thoughtful, well-written replies on both sides of the coin.

As the original poster of this thread, one thing I'm not going to debate as all is Larry Johnson's outlook for 2007. He is the consensus #2 RB and barring an injury, I feel he will finish as the #2 RB... if not #1. I don't think Johnson will wear down from this season alone, and I think he'll have a very good 2007 season.

What I really want to know is what you would do with him if your team just really stinks. Obviously, if you're a title contender, you hold LJ and ride him as far as he'll take you. On the other hand, let's say you have Johnson and really not much else - a bunch of rookies and upside guys along the lines of Brandon Marshall, Marcedes Lewis, etc. Next year is probably not going to be the year unless a lot of players get a lot better, and fast.

In this situation, do you hold LJ and hope the rest of the pieces begin to develop? Hold him and hope he's still the same LJ in 2-3 years? Or do you send him packing now for a package?

In the end, I guess the answer lies in what "the package" is. If you can get multiple picks and a solid RB/WR, it might be the right play to consider it - even if you think LJ will continue to be the same beast he was in 2006.

HOLD. Otherwise you will be in constant rebuilding mode.Once again...

I would not trade LJ for anything less than another young true RB1 (Sjax, Westbrook, Gore for example), an uberstud at your largest position of need other than RB, and a good set of young lottery tickets.

I am in a league where we keep 2 players only.I have LJ, Gore, and Drew-Jones on my team.

If I kept Gore and Drew-Jones, what draft picks do you think would be reasonable in exchange for LJ?

This is where I thought this conversation might head at some point. LJ's current trade value in a dynasty league.In a keeper leagues, Bloom is telling you to "HOLD" LJ. So am I. Neither of us are the right people to ask this question - in a 2-player keeper, the best draft pick you can get is the 3.01. LJ is worth the 1.02 (at least).

Thanks for your response.I was thinking of asking for more than just the potential 3.1 pick, though.

I'm contemplating this only if it looks like Drew-Jones is the starter next year. I am high on him to say the least. If he progresses, he will be a top 5 back for years to come.

The question is, beyond the 3.1 pick what would you ask for?

Any ideas, anyone?

trade MJD or Gore instead, preferrably MJD.

So neither will produce to LJ's level, Bloom? I've had their owners tell me either are worht more than LJ (dynasty).

They're both crazy. While they COULD end up being right, they're asking you to trade the equivalent of a Shaun Alexander or LaDainian Tomlinson (after their second seasons) for a guy who has 1 season under his belt.Nuts. If it were me, I'd offer MJD up for the 3.1 pick AND the best other pick in the draft I can wrangle.

 

[IanTucker]

A lot of very thoughtful, well-written replies on both sides of the coin.

As the original poster of this thread, one thing I'm not going to debate as all is Larry Johnson's outlook for 2007. He is the consensus #2 RB and barring an injury, I feel he will finish as the #2 RB... if not #1. I don't think Johnson will wear down from this season alone, and I think he'll have a very good 2007 season.

What I really want to know is what you would do with him if your team just really stinks. Obviously, if you're a title contender, you hold LJ and ride him as far as he'll take you. On the other hand, let's say you have Johnson and really not much else - a bunch of rookies and upside guys along the lines of Brandon Marshall, Marcedes Lewis, etc. Next year is probably not going to be the year unless a lot of players get a lot better, and fast.

In this situation, do you hold LJ and hope the rest of the pieces begin to develop? Hold him and hope he's still the same LJ in 2-3 years? Or do you send him packing now for a package?

In the end, I guess the answer lies in what "the package" is. If you can get multiple picks and a solid RB/WR, it might be the right play to consider it - even if you think LJ will continue to be the same beast he was in 2006.

HOLD. Otherwise you will be in constant rebuilding mode.Once again...

I would not trade LJ for anything less than another young true RB1 (Sjax, Westbrook, Gore for example), an uberstud at your largest position of need other than RB, and a good set of young lottery tickets.

I am in a league where we keep 2 players only.I have LJ, Gore, and Drew-Jones on my team.

If I kept Gore and Drew-Jones, what draft picks do you think would be reasonable in exchange for LJ?

This is where I thought this conversation might head at some point. LJ's current trade value in a dynasty league.In a keeper leagues, Bloom is telling you to "HOLD" LJ. So am I. Neither of us are the right people to ask this question - in a 2-player keeper, the best draft pick you can get is the 3.01. LJ is worth the 1.02 (at least).

Thanks for your response.I was thinking of asking for more than just the potential 3.1 pick, though.

I'm contemplating this only if it looks like Drew-Jones is the starter next year. I am high on him to say the least. If he progresses, he will be a top 5 back for years to come.

The question is, beyond the 3.1 pick what would you ask for?

Any ideas, anyone?

trade MJD or Gore instead, preferrably MJD.

So neither will produce to LJ's level, Bloom? I've had their owners tell me either are worht more than LJ (dynasty).

They're both crazy. While they COULD end up being right, they're asking you to trade the equivalent of a Shaun Alexander or LaDainian Tomlinson (after their second seasons) for a guy who has 1 season under his belt.Nuts. If it were me, I'd offer MJD up for the 3.1 pick AND the best other pick in the draft I can wrangle.

Hold on...not so fast. While I doubt I'll trade Johnson the decision to trade him instead of Drew-Jones is not so easy as you make out in a keeper league. Check out the first year stats of Tomlinson vs. Drew-Jones.

Drew-Jones outscored Tomlinson in fantasy points with half the carries! And he didn't even start. This kid is going to be something.

 

[MelvinTScupper]

A lot of very thoughtful, well-written replies on both sides of the coin.

As the original poster of this thread, one thing I'm not going to debate as all is Larry Johnson's outlook for 2007. He is the consensus #2 RB and barring an injury, I feel he will finish as the #2 RB... if not #1. I don't think Johnson will wear down from this season alone, and I think he'll have a very good 2007 season.

What I really want to know is what you would do with him if your team just really stinks. Obviously, if you're a title contender, you hold LJ and ride him as far as he'll take you. On the other hand, let's say you have Johnson and really not much else - a bunch of rookies and upside guys along the lines of Brandon Marshall, Marcedes Lewis, etc. Next year is probably not going to be the year unless a lot of players get a lot better, and fast.

In this situation, do you hold LJ and hope the rest of the pieces begin to develop? Hold him and hope he's still the same LJ in 2-3 years? Or do you send him packing now for a package?

In the end, I guess the answer lies in what "the package" is. If you can get multiple picks and a solid RB/WR, it might be the right play to consider it - even if you think LJ will continue to be the same beast he was in 2006.

HOLD. Otherwise you will be in constant rebuilding mode.Once again...

I would not trade LJ for anything less than another young true RB1 (Sjax, Westbrook, Gore for example), an uberstud at your largest position of need other than RB, and a good set of young lottery tickets.

I am in a league where we keep 2 players only.I have LJ, Gore, and Drew-Jones on my team.

If I kept Gore and Drew-Jones, what draft picks do you think would be reasonable in exchange for LJ?

This is where I thought this conversation might head at some point. LJ's current trade value in a dynasty league.In a keeper leagues, Bloom is telling you to "HOLD" LJ. So am I. Neither of us are the right people to ask this question - in a 2-player keeper, the best draft pick you can get is the 3.01. LJ is worth the 1.02 (at least).

Thanks for your response.I was thinking of asking for more than just the potential 3.1 pick, though.

I'm contemplating this only if it looks like Drew-Jones is the starter next year. I am high on him to say the least. If he progresses, he will be a top 5 back for years to come.

The question is, beyond the 3.1 pick what would you ask for?

Any ideas, anyone?

trade MJD or Gore instead, preferrably MJD.

So neither will produce to LJ's level, Bloom? I've had their owners tell me either are worht more than LJ (dynasty).

They're both crazy. While they COULD end up being right, they're asking you to trade the equivalent of a Shaun Alexander or LaDainian Tomlinson (after their second seasons) for a guy who has 1 season under his belt.Nuts. If it were me, I'd offer MJD up for the 3.1 pick AND the best other pick in the draft I can wrangle.

Hold on...not so fast. While I doubt I'll trade Johnson the decision to trade him instead of Drew-Jones is not so easy as you make out in a keeper league. Check out the first year stats of Tomlinson vs. Drew-Jones.Drew-Jones outscored Tomlinson in fantasy points with half the carries! And he didn't even start. This kid is going to be something.

Huh? On a per game basis? Or on a per carry basis?LT was the #1 fantasy RB point guy by like 100 pts. And #1 overall by like 50 pts.

And I agree, this kid COULD be something. I could let Gore go too, in that scenario.

 

[x260bm]

He is comparing LT's rookie season vs. MJD's rookie season.

 

[nightshift]

Let's hear the LJ offers. From the owners and To the owners. Especially those you are seriously considering in this offseason.

 

[Marc Levin]

So neither will produce to LJ's level, Bloom? I've had their owners tell me either are worht more than LJ (dynasty).

I think Melvin's actually underestimated LJ's worth - LJ may have more years ahead of him than LT or SA. And that is what the Gore/MJD owners are banking on when they say those backs are worth more than LJ.Gore is a bit closer to LJ because Gore has demonstrated that he can be a feature back/main offensive weapon, but they are both not worth as much in a dynasty league.To highlight his stats over the last two years one more time:

752 carries, 74 receptions, 4292 yards, 40 TDs - over 1700 rushing yards each year, average of 4.7 YPC.

Guy is a TD machine and Herm Edwards runs his RBs as much as possible.

 

[Frenchy Fuqua]

Emmitt Smith down?

Did you mean Eric Dickerson?Emmitt Smith has never had 400 carries in a regular season.

What does that have to do with anything?Are you saying because he never had 400 touches in a season he can't get injured.

The guy had most RB touches in history and never faced a serious injury. Just because he never hit some magical mark doesn't mean he doesn't prove a durability point.

Like 400 is some magical number that guys magically will get hurt after.....

Great point. Also why shouldn't we factor in postseason? If anything more postseason carries gives a RB less time to recuperate for the following season. Emmitt went over 400 carries 3 times if you factor in the postseason, and another time he hit 395 carries.

 

[sib]

Let's hear the LJ offers. From the owners and To the owners. Especially those you are seriously considering in this offseason.

I am pretty sure one owner would be willing to part with Ronnie Brown, DeAngelo Williams, and the #2 overall pick in the 2007 draft in a dynasty league for LJ.

 

[nightshift]

Let's hear the LJ offers. From the owners and To the owners. Especially those you are seriously considering in this offseason.

I am pretty sure one owner would be willing to part with Ronnie Brown, DeAngelo Williams, and the #2 overall pick in the 2007 draft in a dynasty league for LJ.

are you taking it?

 

[sib]

Let's hear the LJ offers. From the owners and To the owners. Especially those you are seriously considering in this offseason.

I am pretty sure one owner would be willing to part with Ronnie Brown, DeAngelo Williams, and the #2 overall pick in the 2007 draft in a dynasty league for LJ.

are you taking it?

The thought has crossed my head more than once. So far I have decided not to so far because I am contender in 2k7 and I have pretty strong (and also young) RB corps (LJ, R Bush, Maroney, MB3, Julius Jones, and Betts). The downgrade from LJ to R Brown/DeAngelo will hurt my chances big time in 2k7.

 

[B. Nugget]

Let's hear the LJ offers. From the owners and To the owners. Especially those you are seriously considering in this offseason.

I am pretty sure one owner would be willing to part with Ronnie Brown, DeAngelo Williams, and the #2 overall pick in the 2007 draft in a dynasty league for LJ.

are you taking it?

The thought has crossed my head more than once. So far I have decided not to so far because I am contender in 2k7 and I have pretty strong (and also young) RB corps (LJ, R Bush, Maroney, MB3, Julius Jones, and Betts). The downgrade from LJ to R Brown/DeAngelo will hurt my chances big time in 2k7.

I got an unofficial offer of Maroney and Travis Henry for LJ today. I'm not going to take it, but it is interesting to see how much the offers differ. With my team's lack of RB depth, that Brown, DeAngelo and #2 pick would probably be enough, but I didn't get an offer like that

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Let's hear the LJ offers. From the owners and To the owners. Especially those you are seriously considering in this offseason.

I am pretty sure one owner would be willing to part with Ronnie Brown, DeAngelo Williams, and the #2 overall pick in the 2007 draft in a dynasty league for LJ.

That's a fair offer, especially if its a PPR league (increased value for Lynch and Calvin), a large league (14-16 teams)or a league with a flex. If it's no PPR, and no flex, then it doesn't look nearly as good.

 

[Marc Levin]

Let's hear the LJ offers. From the owners and To the owners. Especially those you are seriously considering in this offseason.

I am pretty sure one owner would be willing to part with Ronnie Brown, DeAngelo Williams, and the #2 overall pick in the 2007 draft in a dynasty league for LJ.

are you taking it?

The thought has crossed my head more than once. So far I have decided not to so far because I am contender in 2k7 and I have pretty strong (and also young) RB corps (LJ, R Bush, Maroney, MB3, Julius Jones, and Betts). The downgrade from LJ to R Brown/DeAngelo will hurt my chances big time in 2k7.

I wouldn't consider it with you current RB crop. You do not significantly improve anything except your depth for growth - how does the trade improve your starters? Also, you potentially give up a guy who will finish in the top-3 at least once or twice in the next three-four years. If you are really that close, you don't ditch LJ.The only way I would consider it is if I was then able to move those players or other players for improvement to an elite player at a non-RB spot.

 

[sib]

Let's hear the LJ offers. From the owners and To the owners. Especially those you are seriously considering in this offseason.

I am pretty sure one owner would be willing to part with Ronnie Brown, DeAngelo Williams, and the #2 overall pick in the 2007 draft in a dynasty league for LJ.

are you taking it?

The thought has crossed my head more than once. So far I have decided not to so far because I am contender in 2k7 and I have pretty strong (and also young) RB corps (LJ, R Bush, Maroney, MB3, Julius Jones, and Betts). The downgrade from LJ to R Brown/DeAngelo will hurt my chances big time in 2k7.

I wouldn't consider it with you current RB crop. You do not significantly improve anything except your depth for growth - how does the trade improve your starters? Also, you potentially give up a guy who will finish in the top-3 at least once or twice in the next three-four years. If you are really that close, you don't ditch LJ.The only way I would consider it is if I was then able to move those players or other players for improvement to an elite player at a non-RB spot.

Agreed; there isn't anybody I'm getting that would be an elite player. Even if I drafted Calvin Johnson, he would have to perform pretty damn good as a rookie to knock TO/Roy Williams/Lee Evans out of my starting lineup. The only reason why I am considering it is that Herm Edwards is scaring the hell out of me and I've read comments to the effect of "Look he's not going to have a 10 year career; we gotta ride him while we can" (I don't remember the exact quote, but it's something to that effect). I love LJ, but with Herm running the show, I'm worried that all the touches LJ will accumulate will catch up very quickly. This KC offense is all about pounding LJ until he drops.