Sheriff Bart
Footballguy
On TV now lying some more. Mostly about the transcript and Ukraine. Really like this beauty thogh HE is opening up China so that we can trade with them. As if this is a new market. God I hate him.
Wait, we traded with China pre-Trump?On TV now lying some more. Mostly about the transcript and Ukraine. Really like this beauty thogh HE is opening up China so that we can trade with them. As if this is a new market. God I hate him.
The Dow was. About even now. Point is this was some sort of blockbuster deal, "one of the greatest of all time", the Dow would be up at least 500,maybe 1000 or more.What is down 100?
I heard something more comprehensive would be released later today. Wasn't paying close attention to some guy on CNBC that saw them but he said "I don't know how these numbers work*.How do these numbers workout compared to what they were buying before? Didn't they sign a deal with Brazil to buy a ton of soybeans? Are they going to be buying the same numbers from us as before? Or are these inflated numbers that they'll never hit?
That is the nature of the market. If you follow it hour by hour it will drive you crazy.The Dow was. About even now. Point is this was some sort of blockbuster deal, "one of the greatest of all time", the Dow would be up at least 500,maybe 1000 or more.
There are some people here just hoping for the market to crash.That is the nature of the market. If you follow it hour by hour it will drive you crazy.
Yes, but again if this deal is what he claims it is it would be through the roof.That is the nature of the market. If you follow it hour by hour it will drive you crazy.
Yeah, shame on us for actually reading and understanding the terms of this "deal"....just like we all knew that you and the regulars would claim this regardless of results.
Well if that is the case that is unfortunate as it is about so much more than whoever is POTUS.There are some people here just hoping for the market to crash.
Don't worry, nobody has said that. What people HAVE said, myself included, is that CORRECTIONS are a very normal thing in the market and it would be nice if we had one a few months before the election because it would almost assure a Trump defeat since its why so many people claim to love him.Well if that is the case that is unfortunate as it is about so much more than whoever is POTUSThere are some people here just hoping for the market to crash.
They’re lifting 7.5% on the smallest tranche, $120b (at an unspecified time). In exchange, they’re buying #### they need.Any lifting of tariffs is a good thing.
Yep, he actually had leverage. Have to believe he made this deal just because he needed a win.. So dumb.They’re lifting 7.5% on the smallest tranche, $120b (at an unspecified time). In exchange, they’re buying #### they need.
My 12 year old son is a better negotiator. Really sharp kid. I think he should be a lawyer but he wants to be an astronaut of all things. Great in math, in 7th grade and tutors high school students. /bragSince he took office, I’m highly unimpressed by his negotiating skills. Even if they buy agriculture heavily, which in all honesty they should, it’ll take a few years just to make up for what they haven’t bought recently.
Regardless, since he took office, he has gotten zero accomplished with China. He is at a disadvantage versus Xi since he has an election to worry about. Regardless, he was inaugurated almost 3 years ago and there has been little done here.
China is an important issue, much more important than all bull#### you guys argue about endlessly. We can’t have a country like China being the world’s superpower. It’s a bipartisan issue, for the good America.
If he is re-elected, I will look back on this for his legacy above all the bull####, and there’s a lot of it. If he puts a halt to China’s rise, kudos to him! Here’s the rub, I just don’t think he’s a good negotiator. He’s gotten abused by the Chinese for the last 3 years.
This is my surprised faceI haven't seen an article on the details yet, but this is from twitter -
Larry Kudlow tells @CNBC that the $40 to $50 billion of ag purchases in the China trade deal is over a two year period.
If Kudlow is correct -- and it matches what WH told me in October -- then Trump's trade war has accomplished exactly nothing. Ag purchases would go back to they were before Trump started it.
I haven't seen an article on the details yet, but this is from twitter -
Larry Kudlow tells @CNBC that the $40 to $50 billion of ag purchases in the China trade deal is over a two year period.
If Kudlow is correct -- and it matches what WH told me in October -- then Trump's trade war has accomplished exactly nothing. Ag purchases would go back to they were before Trump started it.
LinkEven as officials in Washington and Beijing began disclosing the first details, however, critics complained that resolving the most damaging Chinese trade practices had been left to future talks.
Trump initiated his trade war with China in March 2018 to close a yawning trade deficit and to counter what he described as a widespread Chinese campaign to acquire advanced American technology by theft or coercion. In the ensuing months, he slapped tariffs on more than two-thirds of all Chinese goods and threatened to hit the rest starting Sunday.The deal averts those tariffs, which would have applied to $160 billion in consumer goods such as laptops, clothing and toys, and includes the first formal Chinese promises to stop forcing U.S. companies to surrender their technology to enter the Chinese market. "This is an amazing deal for all. Thank you!” the president said on Twitter, where he announced the agreement. ( )
The 86-page accord caps a 21-month battle that saw the U.S. raise its tariffs to their highest levels in decades, reversing nearly three generations of progress toward freer global commerce. Manufacturing supply chains were disrupted as companies relocated factories outside of China to escape Trump’s levies.
Those that couldn’t shift quickly enough got stuck with a tariff bill that totaled $65 billion in the most recent fiscal year. Taxpayers, meanwhile, forked over $28 billion — twice the cost of the 2009 auto industry bailout — to compensate farmers for lost sales. To cope with the trade war’s impact on business confidence and investment, the Federal Reserve executed an abrupt U-turn and began cutting interest rates.
“If it’s what I think it is, it’s not even close to worth it,” said Scott Kennedy, an expert on the Chinese economy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “If you turn this deal sideways, it’s almost invisible.”
Asked if the “phase one” agreement was worth the cost, Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, said: “Not really, no.”
Financial markets were unimpressed. The Dow Jones industrial average rose about 130 points before quickly surrendering those gains, ending the day up a bit more than 3 points to close at 28,135.38. @Da Guru @John Blutarsky
Not quite, there is still a lot of imports with 7.5% tariffs on them. Yay - Higher prices!!!I have a better name for this supposed deal: Square One. Trump basically got everything back to where it was almost 2 years ago, and that's assuming it actually goes through in the first place. Of course, he was the one who started this losing battle anyway.
Makes the Louisiana Purchase seem like a bad deal in comparison.Psshh... We don't need experts and the global elites to tell us about trade deals. We know a good deal when we see obe, and this is obviously a huge deal, probably the biggest deal that the US has ever seen. So much prosperity will come from this deal. Thank you, President Trump!
Of course. He's been pushing for it. I imagine it will go straight through to the President's desk.Sounds like a decent deal, but will McConnell do anything with it?
It could have already...why hasn't it?Of course. He's been pushing for it. I imagine it will go straight through to the President's desk.
First, not sure what you mean by "it could have already"- the Democrats waited to vote on it until today.It could have already...why hasn't it?
The deal appears to be a small improvement over NAFTA...basically repackaged and some of the new protections insisted upon by democrats make it a good deal. Congrats to them for getting Trump to cave...but ill hold off in making this some huge victory for him...bu nearly every account its not hugely different than what we had...so did we lose anything in the mean time (I dont think so...at least not at the level we have with China)
Is a modest improvement to what he called the worst deal ever something to credit him with doing well? Or should we credit those that opposed some of what he wanted and got the proper issues addressed.
Sorry...my fault...was going off of memory that it had passed and MCConnels initial wording and didn't realize the house had not passed til now.First, not sure what you mean by "it could have already"- the Democrats waited to vote on it until today.
Second, there's no doubt in my mind that Trump's rhetoric about NAFTA was wrong-headed and really stupid. But even so, from what I can see this deal is slightly better so it's an improvement. And as far as crediting, I credit everybody involved. Most of all, its the first major bipartisan agreement not dealing with the budget that I can think of in a long time...maybe in the last 10-12 years? Since TARP. And that's worth celebrating IMO.
The overall view of the deal seems to be upgrades to worker protections while tweaking the old agreement in ways that helps certain industries in modest ways. I don't know if that's "good" or "bad" but it seems to be an improvement and not a step backwards, so that's progress. The social aspect of this will be entertaining to watch. Traditionally, the GOP claims to be of the "free trade" type. The mechanisms put in place to protect the workers aren't that. They are decidedly "socialist" (by the GOP types). The mechanisms are relatively "isolationist" by any practical measure. This agreement is a shift away from "let the market decide" towards "let the government help you out". I'd have to imagine all those shouting "socialism!!!!!!!!!!!!!" when talking about Bernie and/or Warren are going to have a rough time reconciling that complaint and full throated support of this bill OR they'll be ok with their hypocrisy.Have not followed this too much but listening to the radio it sounds like this is a good deal.
Not surprising as they have been trying to close that plant for 20 years. It was built in the early 1900s and is totally outdated and has not been economically feasible for years. Without a total revision and investment with updates it could not continue. US steel was never going to update and invest in that old plant when Gary IN can take over the same workload. Plus it was one of the the heaviest air and water polluter`s in SE Michigan. Many residents of the down river area of Detroit are glad this cesspool of a plant is finally closing.
There were sites in Kentucky, Missouri, Ohio and Canada pushing for it too. Gov. Whitmer and the Michigan Strategic Fund fought hard and won it for Michigan Autoworkers.On talk radio they said that Ford is adding 3000 jobs and investing 1.5 billon in two factories in Detroit . They said that before Trump these jobs would be going to Mexico.
It sure sounds like he plans on staying. Almost like he can't lose.By
Lingling Wei
Updated Jan. 9, 2020 1:03 pm ET
BEIJING—Chinese President Xi Jinping’s chief trade negotiator will travel to Washington early next week to sign a phase-one trade deal with the U.S., China’s Commerce Ministry said Thursday, the first official confirmation by Beijing on the signing of an agreement that could help ease bilateral tensions.
The Chinese delegation, to be led by Vice Premier Liu He, will visit Washington from Monday to Wednesday, Commerce Ministry spokesman Gao Feng said at a weekly briefing.
Washington and Beijing said on Dec. 13 that the two sides had reached a first-stage deal, under which China would greatly increase its purchases of U.S. farm goods and other products, further open its financial sector, pledge not to devalue the Chinese yuan to help the country’s exporters and better protect American intellectual property.
In exchange, the Trump administration canceled new tariffs on roughly $156 billion in Chinese imports that were set to take effect Dec. 15. It also agreed to cut in half the existing 15% tariff rate on roughly $120 billion of Chinese goods that had been imposed on Sept. 1.
“Phase one is a big, big number. It is a big percentage of the deal,” President Trump told reporters Thursday at the White House. “It’s pretty much all for the farmers.”
Mr. Trump said in late December that the agreement would be signed on Jan. 15, but Beijing until Thursday had remained silent on any deal-signing ceremony.
The president said that work would soon begin on the second phase of a trade deal with China but that he doesn’t expect a resolution until after the November presidential election.
“We’ll start right away negotiating phase two. It will take a little time,” Mr. Trump said. “I think I might want to wait to finish it until after the election because by doing that I think we can actually make a little bit better deal, maybe a lot better deal.”
Mr. Trump has said he would travel to Beijing at some point to begin negotiations on the second phase of the trade pact. Beijing so far hasn’t confirmed such a plan. Instead, Chinese officials have said that any future negotiations would depend on how the phase-one deal is implemented.
In the weeks since Christmas, the two sides have been haggling over the Chinese translation of the text of the agreement, according to people with knowledge of the matter. China’s announcement on Thursday of the signing ceremony suggests that Washington and Beijing have resolved most of the remaining translation issues.
Mr. Liu will lead a 10-member delegation to Washington, the people familiar with the matter said. The delegation includes: Zhong Shan, China’s commerce minister; Yi Gang, governor of China’s central bank; Ning Jizhe, a top official at the country’s economic-planning agency; Liao Min, vice finance minister and trusted aide to Mr. Liu; Zheng Zeguang, vice foreign minister; Wang Zhijun, vice minister of industry and information technology; Han Jun, vice agriculture minister; and Wang Shouwen, vice commerce minister.
Beijing’s ambassador to Washington, Cui Tiankai, will also attend the signing ceremony, currently scheduled to take place next Wednesday at 11:30 a.m. EST at the White House, according to the people. Some 200 people, including representatives from major American trade groups, are expected to be in attendance.
Still, the deal is as significant for what it doesn’t cover. Those areas include Beijing’s subsidies to favored industries and companies, particularly state-owned enterprises, and many tactics the U.S. claims Beijing uses to extract technological know-how from American companies doing business in China.
At Thursday’s briefing, Mr. Gao, the Commerce Ministry spokesman, said negotiators on both sides have remained in close communication over the signing of the deal, which would mark a formal truce in a trade war that has rattled global markets and businesses for nearly two years.
Mr. Gao didn’t provide details on China’s commitment to increase its American imports. Instead, he sought to dispel concerns that more U.S. imports would divert China’s purchases from other trading partners.
China will “improve its tariff policy on wheat, corn and other farm products based on the rules of the World Trade Organization,” he said.
That's a reach by him don't you think? The average American is making $45000 a year. Allowing 1.5% for inflation, prices would have had to increase by 5% for that to be true and that's assuming no one is saving a dime.Evan Osnos made a statement on Fresh Air today saying the average American has come out of pocket $1300 to fund the trade war with China. That number's only going to go up. I am trying to understand/predict what the steps will be of the next administration to get this ship righted.
I haven't dug into it to verify completely. I generally trust Osnos given his life is observing and reporting on China and our relationship with them. I think you understand the issues with using "Average American" here. I am sure there are some who aren't affected at all and then those who have been significantly impacted. His point might be better received/understood if he said something like "the cost to Americans is $XX Billions and that comes out to about $XXXX per person" or some such. I suspect that's where he's going. To your point though, we already know that well over half the country has no form of savings of any kind...some by choice, most not. There's been a rather large increase in food costs, even I've noticed that.That's BS don't you think? The average American is making $45000 a year. Allowing 1.5% for inflation, prices would have had to increase by 5% for that to be true and that's assuming no one is saving a dime.Evan Osnos made a statement on Fresh Air today saying the average American has come out of pocket $1300 to fund the trade war with China. That number's only going to go up. I am trying to understand/predict what the steps will be of the next administration to get this ship righted.
He really only should be counting tariffs paid and lost sales on goods the other parties have imposed tariffs on (and the second might be hard to pin down - uncertainty principle). Job losses (if included) are hard to argue for in the present job market of virtual full employment. He also should make it on the bolded argument, not "average American" argument.I haven't dug into it to verify completely. I generally trust Osnos given his life is observing and reporting on China and our relationship with them. I think you understand the issues with using "Average American" here. I am sure there are some who aren't affected at all and then those who have been significantly impacted. His point might be better received/understood if he said something like "the cost to Americans is $XX Billions and that comes out to about $XXXX per person" or some such. I suspect that's where he's going. To your point though, we already know that well over half the country has no form of savings of any kind...some by choice, most not. There's been a rather large increase in food costs, even I've noticed that.
And I generally trust what you post. In this case, it doesn't pass the eye test for me. It's funny that you mention food, I was going to say I'm seeing food prices coming down. I've be picking up grass fed filets for $7.50 a pound and grass fed strips and ribeye for $6.99 to $7.99. Milk prices are down again but I realize that's a state controlled thing. I go to Best Buy and a Mac Book Air is $800 and the Samsung QLEDs are the same price they have been or cheaper.I haven't dug into it to verify completely. I generally trust Osnos given his life is observing and reporting on China and our relationship with them. I think you understand the issues with using "Average American" here. I am sure there are some who aren't affected at all and then those who have been significantly impacted. His point might be better received/understood if he said something like "the cost to Americans is $XX Billions and that comes out to about $XXXX per person" or some such. I suspect that's where he's going. To your point though, we already know that well over half the country has no form of savings of any kind...some by choice, most not. There's been a rather large increase in food costs, even I've noticed that.
Could be. It was a single sentence in his explanation of another point. It wasn't the focus of the conversation. I probably shouldn't have even brought it up without digging in to figure out where he was coming from...that's my badAnd I generally trust what you post. In this case, it doesn't pass the eye test for me. It's funny that you mention food, I was going to say I'm seeing food prices coming down. I've be picking up grass fed filets for $7.50 a pound and grass fed strips and ribeye for $6.99 to $7.99. Milk prices are down again but I realize that's a state controlled thing. I go to Best Buy and a Mac Book Air is $800 and the Samsung QLEDs are the same price they have been or cheaper.
I suspect that he's taking the total amount in tariffs and dividing by the total number of people. The reality may be that many companies are eating this in loss of profit.
For me the eye test is that the average American is making between $40-$50k. The bulk of their budget is going to housing built before the tariffs (fixed), gas (flat), medical insurance (not significantly impacted by tariffs). To get to $1300 you have to have a huge price increases on a small piece of the pie.
I have no issue with you bringing it up and want to discuss it. I originally asked if his statement was BS with a question mark and the end. That could be construed that I thought you were posting BS so I've edited my original post.Could be. It was a single sentence in his explanation of another point. It wasn't the focus of the conversation. I probably shouldn't have even brought it up without digging in to figure out where he was coming from...that's my bad
I know GB...no worries. Our food prices are going up pretty steadily here in Florida. And oddly enough, washing machines and dryers I only know about that because we just recently purchased both. What we purchased 9 months ago now costs $100ish more per appliance. Complete anecdote but it's what I've seen. Farmers here have been hammered and I've documented what I've seen with the lobster industry down here. I suspect those kinds of groups who are completely decimated are a significant contributor to that number. One person loses $5000 and the other two lose nothing, that "averages" out to $1600 a person (rough math...but I think we agree). That sort of thing.I have no issue with you bringing it up and want to discuss it. I originally asked if his statement was BS with a question mark and the end. That could be construed that I thought you were posting BS so I've edited my original post.
It makes perfect sense to think the Trump trade war would have huge negative impacts on the economy. Costing the average person $1300 would be a huge impact. I'm just trying to rationalize where that impact is actually being seen. Personally I'm not seeing it, but I'm just one data point.
IIRC, washing machines and dryers were some of the first things with a tariff on it and it pretty quickly led to price increasesI know GB...no worries. Our food prices are going up pretty steadily here in Florida. And oddly enough, washing machines and dryers I only know about that because we just recently purchased both. What we purchased 9 months ago now costs $100ish more per appliance. Complete anecdote but it's what I've seen. Farmers here have been hammered and I've documented what I've seen with the lobster industry down here. I suspect those kinds of groups who are completely decimated are a significant contributor to that number. One person loses $5000 and the other two lose nothing, that "averages" out to $1600 a person (rough math...but I think we agree). That sort of thing.
I had heard that was going to be the case and that's why we bought when we did. I just never looked at it again to see if true...apparently it is.IIRC, washing machines and dryers were some of the first things with a tariff on it and it pretty quickly led to price increases
Isn't it sitting on McConnell's desk with the rest of the legislation passed by the House?According to CNBC an hour ago nobody other than Trump or his inner circle has seen the actual deal yet. Must be a real winner.