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Trade value of the 1.01 (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter jeter23
- Start date
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Alot of people are seemingly trying to trade away FWP. Been offered him in numerous leagues for a number of different things.
Might have something to do with him breaking his leg at the end of the year and scoring a grand total of 2 TDs.
Londo
Footballguy
Agreed, which is why I have been trying to trade FOR him in a few leagues.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
After "All Day's" success... pick 1.01 is very valuable. It might be a very good yr to trade it away.
Pictus Cat
Footballguy
This happened in my league. Rookie pick has slightly higher actual value in my league due to rules, but pick is overvalued by some and undervalued as worthless to others.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Start 3-4 WR, 2-3RB... draft is rookies and free agents
Gave up the #1 and #25
Got Andre Johnson, plus the #11 and #23 picks
Gave up the #1 and #25
Got Andre Johnson, plus the #11 and #23 picks
Avery
Footballguy
I'm a big Andre Johnson fan, but especially depending on your league size, I'm not sure I like this trade.
I'd turn it down. Owens only has two more productive seasons left in him, tops, and Jacobs is a decent #2 RB, but not much more than that.
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
Agreed, i would turn that down instantly.
broncofan13000
Footballguy
Gave up Berrian and the 1.02 to move up to the 1.01...
Maybe a little too much since alot of people believe Stewart will be a great back in his own right; but i think Mcfadden will be worth it.
Maybe a little too much since alot of people believe Stewart will be a great back in his own right; but i think Mcfadden will be worth it.
JPeso
Footballguy
In most of my dynasties, the 1.1 is acting as a top 10 pick in a new dynasty. I am in leagues with a lot of the same guys, so once that value is placed on him by 1 of the 1.1 owners, they all seem to carry it.
Speaking about FWP, I own him in a lot of my dynasties, and it is funny how bad the offers are for him.
Speaking about FWP, I own him in a lot of my dynasties, and it is funny how bad the offers are for him.
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
There is alot of talk around here about how close Mcfadden is to the rest of the RB class. For whatever reason people have, wether it is because people are comparing him to AD, his skinny legs, bar fights etc., fact is NFL scouts are as high on him, if not higher than AD last year. Am i saying he is better than AD, or that he will even be the best of this class, no, but i am certainly going to take the word of NFL scouts over people on a football message board. Especially considering the bias people have here based on picks and players they have.
broncofan13000
Footballguy
I feel the same way.
el centro
Footballguy
I would turn that down in a heartbeat - depending on the scoring & lineup setup. TO is what ~34? Jacobs can't stay healthy, and Bradshaw has proven very little. I think if you posted a poll on this - it'd be clos to 80% for the 1.01.
broncofan13000
Footballguy
For me it would depend on if i'm a contender or not (chances are you aren't if you have the 1.01)...but i would more than likely pass.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
i don't agree with this. quite a few people will take situation into account. McFadden's value could take a hit after draft day if he goes somewhere like Oak, and Stewart goes to Denver or Houston. Sometimes you just have to take a good deal when/if it's offered to you.
cstu
Footballguy
Then you take Stewart and let someone else have McFadden in OAK.
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
No you dont, talent trumps situation.
FUBAR
Footballguy
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
What scouts say he is better than AD?
Bizkiteer
Footballguy
There was all the talk or questions about AD being injury prone. It's valid too considering in limited time/carries, he had to sit out a few games already. All in all though, NFL scouts are treating DMac as the most can't miss RB for this year's draft as they were saying about AD.
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
The ones that are projecting DM to go in the first four picks of the draft.
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Uhh..you know that where a player goes in the draft does not necessarily translate to his projected ability, right? Different years, different teams, different needs. Are you saying that if McFadden is drafted in the first 6 picks then that makes him better than Peterson?
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
Umm, no.
Are you saying that Mcfadden is not ranked by NFL scouts this year as high as AD was last year?
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Well, if you are saying they are both rated as the #1 RB in the class, you are correct. But if you mean that they will have the same numerical ranking that can be compared from year to year at sites like Sporting News or PFW, I'd be surprised if McFadden's rating is as high as Peterson's.Umm, no.Are you saying that Mcfadden is not ranked by NFL scouts this year as high as AD was last year?
Can we go back and look at what the 2006 1.1 was wanting in trade value. And no one would probably do the trade again. That was the year of huge mania.
Buyer beware. Peterson is a special talent. And yes he has injury concerns. I dont think McFadden is near Peterson in overall ability.
Check out 2005, 2004 etc. This pick gets way overvalued
I cant believe there are people who would not have done the Andre Johnson trade. In PPR, he will outplay McFadden by a ton over the next 8 years. Probably outplays him in non PPR also.
Buyer beware. Peterson is a special talent. And yes he has injury concerns. I dont think McFadden is near Peterson in overall ability.
Check out 2005, 2004 etc. This pick gets way overvalued
I cant believe there are people who would not have done the Andre Johnson trade. In PPR, he will outplay McFadden by a ton over the next 8 years. Probably outplays him in non PPR also.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
Totally... most of these trades in this thread will be rip offs a week or 2 before anyones draft. The 2 best times to trade picks away is:1) week before your draft2) around the NFL Draft.... there is so much hype on these kids; people go a little crazy.
Cookiemonster
Footballguy
The only reason AD went as low as #7 was his injury history. If it were based on talent alone, Peterson would have been a #1 and teams would have been clamoring to trade up for it. Aside from that, RB has been devalued for the last several years because so many teams have found their backups to be legitimate and more people seem to be realizing that maybe the line has more to do with things than RB talent (see P.Holmes/LJ). Most everybody thought Peterson had LT2 type talent, but most also figured that he would likely never make it through an entire 16 game season (and so far those arguments seem to hold at least a little water). After years of devaluing RBs, Peterson comes in and makes a splash like that, and at least for now, RB value has surged a little.Umm, no.
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
I doubt that has much to do with it. Bush went #2 the year before. Fact is real NFL scouts, not message board "experts", think Mcfadden is an elite talent, worthy of a top 5 pick. That is enough for me, and there isnt much a wanna be scout here on the message board is going to say to change my mind.The only reason AD went as low as #7 was his injury history. If it were based on talent alone, Peterson would have been a #1 and teams would have been clamoring to trade up for it. Aside from that, RB has been devalued for the last several years because so many teams have found their backups to be legitimate and more people seem to be realizing that maybe the line has more to do with things than RB talent (see P.Holmes/LJ). Most everybody thought Peterson had LT2 type talent, but most also figured that he would likely never make it through an entire 16 game season (and so far those arguments seem to hold at least a little water). After years of devaluing RBs, Peterson comes in and makes a splash like that, and at least for now, RB value has surged a little.Umm, no.Are you saying that Mcfadden is not ranked by NFL scouts this year as high as AD was last year?
redman
Footballguy
And once again, the Shark Pool demonstrates the drastic inflation in value of high 1st round draft picks in the months leading up to the draft.
redman
Footballguy
Actually, the primary reason he fell was because the team needs of the first six teams really didn't include RB. For example, the 'Skins at 1.06 had Portis and Betts, and desperately needed defensive secondary help, which is why they drafted Landry. The Cards had Edge; the Browns had a myriad of other problems to deal with, most notably offensive line; etc.The only reason AD went as low as #7 was his injury history. If it were based on talent alone, Peterson would have been a #1 and teams would have been clamoring to trade up for it. Aside from that, RB has been devalued for the last several years because so many teams have found their backups to be legitimate and more people seem to be realizing that maybe the line has more to do with things than RB talent (see P.Holmes/LJ). Most everybody thought Peterson had LT2 type talent, but most also figured that he would likely never make it through an entire 16 game season (and so far those arguments seem to hold at least a little water). After years of devaluing RBs, Peterson comes in and makes a splash like that, and at least for now, RB value has surged a little.Umm, no.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Not if you think Brady regresses back to the mean ala Manning in 2004-2005. Before this year Brady was a 26 TD per year passer. That's nice but not worth the 1.01.
gianmarco
Footballguy
You have any sources to back up the fact that NFL scouts have him ranked as high if not higher than Peterson? If I'm not mistaken, Peterson was ranked about as high as you can be at the RB spot by scouts. Just curious where you're getting the info.I doubt that has much to do with it. Bush went #2 the year before. Fact is real NFL scouts, not message board "experts", think Mcfadden is an elite talent, worthy of a top 5 pick. That is enough for me, and there isnt much a wanna be scout here on the message board is going to say to change my mind.The only reason AD went as low as #7 was his injury history. If it were based on talent alone, Peterson would have been a #1 and teams would have been clamoring to trade up for it. Aside from that, RB has been devalued for the last several years because so many teams have found their backups to be legitimate and more people seem to be realizing that maybe the line has more to do with things than RB talent (see P.Holmes/LJ). Most everybody thought Peterson had LT2 type talent, but most also figured that he would likely never make it through an entire 16 game season (and so far those arguments seem to hold at least a little water). After years of devaluing RBs, Peterson comes in and makes a splash like that, and at least for now, RB value has surged a little.Umm, no.Are you saying that Mcfadden is not ranked by NFL scouts this year as high as AD was last year?
redman
Footballguy
If you're talking about the 1.01 rookie draft pick, I absolutely disagree with you. How far is Brady going to regress with Moss there (and I'm convinced NE is going to keep Moss)? I'd say his TD floor is 30, and I'd be willing to bet that his TD's will be closer to 40 than to 30 next year and for the forseeable future. You'd trade a guy like that for a rookie?Not if you think Brady regresses back to the mean ala Manning in 2004-2005. Before this year Brady was a 26 TD per year passer. That's nice but not worth the 1.01.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
That's what people said about Manning and the next year he was right back to where he was before TD wise. Unless Brady is throwing 40+ TDs, he's not worth McFadden unless you were in dramatic need of a QB. Too many QBs who throw in the high 20's that can be had much cheaper. Difference between 28 and 40 Tds is only 48 points. And that's if Brady throws 40 TDs, which i doubt.If you're talking about the 1.01 rookie draft pick, I absolutely disagree with you. How far is Brady going to regress with Moss there (and I'm convinced NE is going to keep Moss)? I'd say his TD floor is 30, and I'd be willing to bet that his TD's will be closer to 40 than to 30 next year and for the forseeable future. You'd trade a guy like that for a rookie?Not if you think Brady regresses back to the mean ala Manning in 2004-2005. Before this year Brady was a 26 TD per year passer. That's nice but not worth the 1.01.
LILB811
Footballguy
The whole point of this thread is to see what people in their leagues would get in return for trading the first overall pick. In my dynasty league I do have the first pick and will definitely be fielding offers for McFadden from now until the beginning of the year. He has great talent no doubt, and most likely will be a top back in the league for many years. So, since you're obviously interested and convinced, what players would you NOT give up in a trade to get McFadden in a dynasty league, assuming you had every player at your disposal.I doubt that has much to do with it. Bush went #2 the year before. Fact is real NFL scouts, not message board "experts", think Mcfadden is an elite talent, worthy of a top 5 pick. That is enough for me, and there isnt much a wanna be scout here on the message board is going to say to change my mind.The only reason AD went as low as #7 was his injury history. If it were based on talent alone, Peterson would have been a #1 and teams would have been clamoring to trade up for it. Aside from that, RB has been devalued for the last several years because so many teams have found their backups to be legitimate and more people seem to be realizing that maybe the line has more to do with things than RB talent (see P.Holmes/LJ). Most everybody thought Peterson had LT2 type talent, but most also figured that he would likely never make it through an entire 16 game season (and so far those arguments seem to hold at least a little water). After years of devaluing RBs, Peterson comes in and makes a splash like that, and at least for now, RB value has surged a little.Umm, no.
redman
Footballguy
Whose offense changed more from the year before the huge TD season to the year after, Manning's or Brady's. The point is Manning's season looked like more of an outlier because his personnel was essentially identical to the year before. I, for one, didn't figure that Brandon Stokely was going to give Manning another 10 TD season, and I also didn't envision the TE position combining for 11 TD's again either though that was more realistic.That's what people said about Manning and the next year he was right back to where he was before TD wise. Unless Brady is throwing 40+ TDs, he's not worth McFadden unless you were in dramatic need of a QB. Too many QBs who throw in the high 20's that can be had much cheaper. Difference between 28 and 40 Tds is only 48 points. And that's if Brady throws 40 TDs, which i doubt.If you're talking about the 1.01 rookie draft pick, I absolutely disagree with you. How far is Brady going to regress with Moss there (and I'm convinced NE is going to keep Moss)? I'd say his TD floor is 30, and I'd be willing to bet that his TD's will be closer to 40 than to 30 next year and for the forseeable future. You'd trade a guy like that for a rookie?Not if you think Brady regresses back to the mean ala Manning in 2004-2005. Before this year Brady was a 26 TD per year passer. That's nice but not worth the 1.01.
The big difference in NE is Randy Moss, who accounted for over 40% of the TD's this year. Do you view him as some sort of flash in the pan?
EBF
Footballguy
For all the hype over the one or two "can't miss" prospects every year, the value at the top of rookie drafts is typically clustered in the first 3-4 picks rather than the first pick alone. Consider:
2003 - Charles Rogers, Larry Johnson, Andre Johnson, Willis McGahee
2004 - Kevin Jones, Steven Jackson, Larry Fitzgerald
2005 - Cadillac Williams, Ronnie Brown, Cedric Benson, Braylon Edwards
2006 - Reggie Bush, Laurence Maroney, LenDale White, DeAngelo Williams, Joseph Addai
2007 - Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch, Calvin Johnson
It looks like you stand a pretty good chance of getting an impact player in most years if you have a top 3 pick. So while all the talk this year will be about McFadden, I think you're in pretty good shape if you can slip into the top 3-4 and take any one of the first round RBs. That's why I recommend trading down this year if you own the 1.01. In all likelihood, the difference in actual value between McFadden and the 1.02 will probably be negligible, but there's enough hype to allow you to get a nice bounty by moving down.
Everyone has been blinded by the fact that Peterson was such a rare case to come into the league as the consensus 1.01 and play at a Pro Bowl level. But recent history suggests that the consensus 1.01 isn't necessarily a much better gamble than the guys who will be sitting there at 1.02 and 1.03.
2003 - Charles Rogers, Larry Johnson, Andre Johnson, Willis McGahee
2004 - Kevin Jones, Steven Jackson, Larry Fitzgerald
2005 - Cadillac Williams, Ronnie Brown, Cedric Benson, Braylon Edwards
2006 - Reggie Bush, Laurence Maroney, LenDale White, DeAngelo Williams, Joseph Addai
2007 - Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch, Calvin Johnson
It looks like you stand a pretty good chance of getting an impact player in most years if you have a top 3 pick. So while all the talk this year will be about McFadden, I think you're in pretty good shape if you can slip into the top 3-4 and take any one of the first round RBs. That's why I recommend trading down this year if you own the 1.01. In all likelihood, the difference in actual value between McFadden and the 1.02 will probably be negligible, but there's enough hype to allow you to get a nice bounty by moving down.
Everyone has been blinded by the fact that Peterson was such a rare case to come into the league as the consensus 1.01 and play at a Pro Bowl level. But recent history suggests that the consensus 1.01 isn't necessarily a much better gamble than the guys who will be sitting there at 1.02 and 1.03.
Maroney=Speed
Footballguy
Why? If the experts on here(FBG) don't like Him, then the NFL guys have no clue.Correct?
Like I've been saying He ranks only under All Day to this point and time.
Pre Combine, Pre Nfl Draft and none ppr.
It's that easy.
1.1 pick this year is worth even more than it was last year.
Why because not every rook draft had All Day going at 1.1.
Like Bush, McFadden is the clear pick at 1.1.
So if you have pick 1.1, anything less than a stud back and you got ripped off.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
I don't expect Welker to catch 100 plus balls again next year and i expect New England to run a more balanced offense like they've been doing the last month and a half. Don't think Watson will catch a TD every other game and i don't think their #4 WR will score 5 TDs. Last 7 games Brady's thrown 15 TDs. Think that's a pretty good projection going into next year. As of now i'd project him for 35-37 TDs and that's with Randy staying, which isn't a lock.Whose offense changed more from the year before the huge TD season to the year after, Manning's or Brady's. The point is Manning's season looked like more of an outlier because his personnel was essentially identical to the year before. I, for one, didn't figure that Brandon Stokely was going to give Manning another 10 TD season, and I also didn't envision the TE position combining for 11 TD's again either though that was more realistic.That's what people said about Manning and the next year he was right back to where he was before TD wise. Unless Brady is throwing 40+ TDs, he's not worth McFadden unless you were in dramatic need of a QB. Too many QBs who throw in the high 20's that can be had much cheaper. Difference between 28 and 40 Tds is only 48 points. And that's if Brady throws 40 TDs, which i doubt.If you're talking about the 1.01 rookie draft pick, I absolutely disagree with you. How far is Brady going to regress with Moss there (and I'm convinced NE is going to keep Moss)? I'd say his TD floor is 30, and I'd be willing to bet that his TD's will be closer to 40 than to 30 next year and for the forseeable future. You'd trade a guy like that for a rookie?Not if you think Brady regresses back to the mean ala Manning in 2004-2005. Before this year Brady was a 26 TD per year passer. That's nice but not worth the 1.01.And once again, the Shark Pool demonstrates the drastic inflation in value of high 1st round draft picks in the months leading up to the draft.
The big difference in NE is Randy Moss, who accounted for over 40% of the TD's this year. Do you view him as some sort of flash in the pan?
Colin Dowling
Footballguy
Wow. That's an absolute steal.
Did Owens tell you he's only playing two more years? Best I can tell, he just turned 34 (Harrison will be 36 on Opening day, Driver will be 33, Holt will be 32) and is coming off 2 fantastic seasons. And Jacobs has shown he can score in the past just as he showed he could run for good yardage (5.0ypc) this year. That's a lot to give up for the chance to draft a guy that hasn't taken a snap yet. Me thinks the AP love from '07 is going to blind a lot of people when it comes to McFadden.
redman
Footballguy
Why are you arguing with me?
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Harrison probably isn't the best person to bring up right now as to why TO should still be good years from now.
