Trade value of the 1.01 (1 Viewer)

[fruity pebbles]

And once again, the Shark Pool demonstrates the drastic inflation in value of high 1st round draft picks in the months leading up to the draft.

Not if you think Brady regresses back to the mean ala Manning in 2004-2005. Before this year Brady was a 26 TD per year passer. That's nice but not worth the 1.01.

If you're talking about the 1.01 rookie draft pick, I absolutely disagree with you. How far is Brady going to regress with Moss there (and I'm convinced NE is going to keep Moss)? I'd say his TD floor is 30, and I'd be willing to bet that his TD's will be closer to 40 than to 30 next year and for the forseeable future. You'd trade a guy like that for a rookie?

That's what people said about Manning and the next year he was right back to where he was before TD wise. Unless Brady is throwing 40+ TDs, he's not worth McFadden unless you were in dramatic need of a QB. Too many QBs who throw in the high 20's that can be had much cheaper. Difference between 28 and 40 Tds is only 48 points. And that's if Brady throws 40 TDs, which i doubt.

Whose offense changed more from the year before the huge TD season to the year after, Manning's or Brady's. The point is Manning's season looked like more of an outlier because his personnel was essentially identical to the year before. I, for one, didn't figure that Brandon Stokely was going to give Manning another 10 TD season, and I also didn't envision the TE position combining for 11 TD's again either though that was more realistic.

The big difference in NE is Randy Moss, who accounted for over 40% of the TD's this year. Do you view him as some sort of flash in the pan?

I don't expect Welker to catch 100 plus balls again next year and i expect New England to run a more balanced offense like they've been doing the last month and a half. Don't think Watson will catch a TD every other game and i don't think their #4 WR will score 5 TDs. Last 7 games Brady's thrown 15 TDs. Think that's a pretty good projection going into next year. As of now i'd project him for 35-37 TDs and that's with Randy staying, which isn't a lock.

Why are you arguing with me?

Who's arguing with you? At 35 Tds, Brady isn't worth the 1.01, that's all i'm saying.

 

[redman]

Who's arguing with you? At 35 Tds, Brady isn't worth the 1.01, that's all i'm saying.

The 1.01 picks in my oldest dynasty league dating back to 2003 are:Adrian Peterson (I'd take him over Brady)Reggie Bush (nope)Reggie Brown (nope)Kevin Jones ( )LJ (nope)QB's have nice staying power, which is why I'd take an elite QB even over some sometime elite RB's like LJ. But by my book that's only one out of the last five 1.01 picks that I'd take over Brady. What makes you think that this 1.01 is any more assured of (more) success than those guys had?

 

[SayWhat?]

Who's arguing with you? At 35 Tds, Brady isn't worth the 1.01, that's all i'm saying.

The 1.01 picks in my oldest dynasty league dating back to 2003 are:Adrian Peterson (I'd take him over Brady)Reggie Bush (nope)Reggie Brown (nope)Kevin Jones ( )LJ (nope)QB's have nice staying power, which is why I'd take an elite QB even over some sometime elite RB's like LJ. But by my book that's only one out of the last five 1.01 picks that I'd take over Brady. What makes you think that this 1.01 is any more assured of (more) success than those guys had?

You're referring to LJ as a "sometimes elite RB?" What, exactly, would you define Brady as? I'd say "sometimes elite" (i.e. ONE season) holds true to him as well. Before this season, he definitely wasn't the lead cog in any championship runs. A solid, consistent producer? Sure. But the same can be said for 10+ other QB's every year.

 

[SayWhat?]

And yes, I'd trade the 1.01 this season for Brady if I needed a QB.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Who's arguing with you? At 35 Tds, Brady isn't worth the 1.01, that's all i'm saying.

The 1.01 picks in my oldest dynasty league dating back to 2003 are:Adrian Peterson (I'd take him over Brady)Reggie Bush (nope)Reggie Brown (nope)Kevin Jones ( )LJ (nope)QB's have nice staying power, which is why I'd take an elite QB even over some sometime elite RB's like LJ. But by my book that's only one out of the last five 1.01 picks that I'd take over Brady. What makes you think that this 1.01 is any more assured of (more) success than those guys had?

I'd take AD, Bush in a ppr, Ronnie Brown maybe, Kevin Jones no, LJ yes.

 

[redman]

Who's arguing with you? At 35 Tds, Brady isn't worth the 1.01, that's all i'm saying.

The 1.01 picks in my oldest dynasty league dating back to 2003 are:Adrian Peterson (I'd take him over Brady)

Reggie Bush (nope)

Reggie Brown (nope)

Kevin Jones ( )

LJ (nope)

QB's have nice staying power, which is why I'd take an elite QB even over some sometime elite RB's like LJ. But by my book that's only one out of the last five 1.01 picks that I'd take over Brady. What makes you think that this 1.01 is any more assured of (more) success than those guys had?

You're referring to LJ as a "sometimes elite RB?" What, exactly, would you define Brady as? I'd say "sometimes elite" (i.e. ONE season) holds true to him as well. Before this season, he definitely wasn't the lead cog in any championship runs. A solid, consistent producer? Sure. But the same can be said for 10+ other QB's every year.

Again, the big difference is Moss. Brady has put up those prior numbers without Moss. I expect Moss to be resigned, so I expect the boost to Brady's passing stats to remain there (though anything above 40 TD's isn't part of my expectations - could happen though). To me, depending upon the contract he signs, you're going to get another good two to four years out of Moss in NE.

 

[gianmarco]

Let's put Brady aside for a second.

Would you guys trade the 1.01 for Peyton Manning? Because I think Brady, if Moss stays in town, should have similar production to what Manning has done.

 

[LILB811]

Let's put Brady aside for a second.Would you guys trade the 1.01 for Peyton Manning? Because I think Brady, if Moss stays in town, should have similar production to what Manning has done.

In a rookie dynasty draft, if you have a solid QB already (top 10), I wouldn't trade the 1.01 for 5 years of Manning's 30 TD, 15 INT production. If I have RB depth already, I would consider it more.

 

[CEO of the Barefoots]

In a 14 team 21 player dynasty league (non-PPR) I offered Jacobs, Derrick Ward and 1.08 for 1.01. I was turned down

 

[FUBAR]

Who's arguing with you? At 35 Tds, Brady isn't worth the 1.01, that's all i'm saying.

The 1.01 picks in my oldest dynasty league dating back to 2003 are:Adrian Peterson (I'd take him over Brady)Reggie Bush (nope)Reggie Brown (nope)Kevin Jones ( )LJ (nope)QB's have nice staying power, which is why I'd take an elite QB even over some sometime elite RB's like LJ. But by my book that's only one out of the last five 1.01 picks that I'd take over Brady. What makes you think that this 1.01 is any more assured of (more) success than those guys had?

Who took Reggie Brown 1.01? If you mean Ronnie, while I prefer Brady today, halfway through this season, it would have at least been close. For most of his career, LJ > BradyI'm guessing, but I think you'd have a hard time getting Reggie Bush for Brady in many leagues, PPR for sure.

 

[redman]

Who's arguing with you? At 35 Tds, Brady isn't worth the 1.01, that's all i'm saying.

The 1.01 picks in my oldest dynasty league dating back to 2003 are:Adrian Peterson (I'd take him over Brady)Reggie Bush (nope)Reggie Brown (nope)Kevin Jones ( )LJ (nope)QB's have nice staying power, which is why I'd take an elite QB even over some sometime elite RB's like LJ. But by my book that's only one out of the last five 1.01 picks that I'd take over Brady. What makes you think that this 1.01 is any more assured of (more) success than those guys had?

Who took Reggie Brown 1.01? If you mean Ronnie, while I prefer Brady today, halfway through this season, it would have at least been close. For most of his career, LJ > BradyI'm guessing, but I think you'd have a hard time getting Reggie Bush for Brady in many leagues, PPR for sure.

Correct, I meant Ronnie Brown.

 

[baldbird]

I traded the 1.1 and the 2.1 for the 1.3, 1.6, and Lee Evans. It is also a PPR league.

very nice

 

[SSOG]

Did Owens tell you he's only playing two more years? Best I can tell, he just turned 34 (Harrison will be 36 on Opening day, Driver will be 33, Holt will be 32) and is coming off 2 fantastic seasons. And Jacobs has shown he can score in the past just as he showed he could run for good yardage (5.0ypc) this year. That's a lot to give up for the chance to draft a guy that hasn't taken a snap yet. Me thinks the AP love from '07 is going to blind a lot of people when it comes to McFadden.

Jerry Rice is the greatest WR to ever play the game. No other WR in the league has even TOUCHED his longevity. He's the only WR in history to play past age 40, and he didn't just play, he had 1200 yards and finished as WR11. I think we can all agree that Jerry Rice was the biggest fluke to ever play WR in NFL history, right? I don't think it's unreasonable to say that Terrell Owens will likely not match Jerry Rice's longevity, do you?After age 34, Jerry Rice only finished in the top 24 (i.e. fantasy WR1 or fantasy WR2) three times. He only cracked 1,000 yards receiving 3 times. He only had 5+ receiving touchdowns 4 times. Jerry "gold standard for longevity" only had three truly productive seasons after age 34. I've established that I believe that Jerry Rice was the biggest fluke to ever play WR, so obviously I don't expect Owens to match him, which is why I'm only giving Owens two more productive years.You mention Driver and Holt when defending Owens. Driver is two years younger than Owens, so could easily have two more productive seasons left in him than Owens (I don't think he does, but that's because I'm not a Driver fan). Holt is three years younger than Owens, so he could easily have three more productive seasons left in him than Owens. 32 is not old for a WR. 34 is. 35 is VERY old.

 

[Sugar Huddle]

OK. So what value do you put on 1.2? What offers are you receiving and/or what veteran players would you take for this pick?

 

[flat_earth]

For what it's worth, I just traded for the 1.01 in one of my dynasty leagues.

12 teams, ppr, 25-man rosters.

I gave:

Santonio Holmes

Sidney Rice

1.08

2.01

I received:

1.01

2.09

I have a pretty strong and deep team, so I could afford to give up the WRs and mid-high picks without degrading my roster too much.

 

[SSOG]

For what it's worth, I just traded for the 1.01 in one of my dynasty leagues.12 teams, ppr, 25-man rosters.I gave:Santonio HolmesSidney Rice1.082.01I received:1.012.09I have a pretty strong and deep team, so I could afford to give up the WRs and mid-high picks without degrading my roster too much.

Sidney Rice, Santonio Holmes, the #8 pick, and a downward move in the second round for McFadden? Even if your team was super-deep, that seems quite a hefty price to pay.

 

[flat_earth]

Sidney Rice, Santonio Holmes, the #8 pick, and a downward move in the second round for McFadden? Even if your team was super-deep, that seems quite a hefty price to pay.

It was a hefty price to pay, I agree. I guess it depends how you look at it. I still have the #12 pick as well, so the move down in the second didn't bother me. I view it as getting a potential stud RB without having to give up a RB myself. Yes, I might have gotten one of the second tier guys at #8, but that is a complete crapshoot (I recognize that the #1 is a crapshoot as well, but less so). I kind of came to a point where I didn't want to do any deals for mid-level guys anymore, and that is what it took to get it done. My team after the trade will be:QB: Roethlisberger, Garrard, LeinartRB: McFadden, Portis, Jones-Drew, Turner, Irons, othersWR: Fitzgerald, Colston, Calvin Johnson, Cotchery, othersTE: Cooley, Scheffler

 

[Burning Sensation]

I just turned down an offer of: LT for 1.1 and 1.11

Doesnt seem like a bad offer, but i probably wouldnt trade the 1.1 straight up for LT.

 

[broncofan13000]

Who's arguing with you? At 35 Tds, Brady isn't worth the 1.01, that's all i'm saying.

The 1.01 picks in my oldest dynasty league dating back to 2003 are:Adrian Peterson (I'd take him over Brady)Reggie Bush (nope)Reggie Brown (nope)Kevin Jones ( )LJ (nope)QB's have nice staying power, which is why I'd take an elite QB even over some sometime elite RB's like LJ. But by my book that's only one out of the last five 1.01 picks that I'd take over Brady. What makes you think that this 1.01 is any more assured of (more) success than those guys had?

AD - over Brady, yes.Ronnie Brown - over Brady - maybe...you would if he wasn't injured...before Ronnie's injury he was the #1 fantasy back...LJ - yes...LJ was a consenus top 3 pick for a # of yearsReggie Bush - i would still take Bush over Brady in a PPR. KJ - nope. People act as if Brady was throwing 40tds every year...I see him throwing around 30-35 next season...

 

[SSOG]

Sidney Rice, Santonio Holmes, the #8 pick, and a downward move in the second round for McFadden? Even if your team was super-deep, that seems quite a hefty price to pay.

It was a hefty price to pay, I agree. I guess it depends how you look at it. I still have the #12 pick as well, so the move down in the second didn't bother me. I view it as getting a potential stud RB without having to give up a RB myself. Yes, I might have gotten one of the second tier guys at #8, but that is a complete crapshoot (I recognize that the #1 is a crapshoot as well, but less so). I kind of came to a point where I didn't want to do any deals for mid-level guys anymore, and that is what it took to get it done. My team after the trade will be:QB: Roethlisberger, Garrard, LeinartRB: McFadden, Portis, Jones-Drew, Turner, Irons, othersWR: Fitzgerald, Colston, Calvin Johnson, Cotchery, othersTE: Cooley, Scheffler

The big question is, if you'd gone after a veteran instead of McFadden, what kind of veterans could you get for Santonio, Sidney, #1.08, and a downward move in the second?

 

[Burning Sensation]

Here is what the first two rounds of a non-PPR, 6 points for all TD's initial dynasty draft would probably look like if i had each pick.

1. AD

2. Stephen Jackson

3. Joseph Addai

4. Maurice Jones-Drew

5. Darren Mcfadden

6. Frank Gore

7. Marshawn Lynch

8. LT

9. Brian Westbrook

10. Reggie Bush

11. Jonathan Stewart

12. Rashard Mendenhall

13. Andre Johnson

14. Larry Fitzgerald

15. Braylon Edwards

16. Reggie Wayne

17. Tom Brady

18. Peyton Manning

19. Willis Mcgahee

20. Marion Barber

21. Randy Moss

22. Felix Jones

23. Marques Colston

24. Ben Roethlisberger

I tend to overvalue youth a bit, but i would rather take a chance on a young RB than have a solid RB for only a year or two.

 

[flat_earth]

The big question is, if you'd gone after a veteran instead of McFadden, what kind of veterans could you get for Santonio, Sidney, #1.08, and a downward move in the second?

Without giving up a RB of my own? No one with as much upside. Everyone is RB starved in this league. I am in the process of revamping this team for youth, so I wasn't interested in older guys like Westbrook, LJ, etc. And the owners of the Marshawn Lynch types of guys would not budge (I tried). I'm normally all about value...don't give up more than you are getting back. But I really felt my team was in a position to swing for the fences in this case.

 

[Restricted]

Here is what the first two rounds of a non-PPR, 6 points for all TD's initial dynasty draft would probably look like if i had each pick.1. AD2. Stephen Jackson3. Joseph Addai4. Maurice Jones-Drew5. Darren Mcfadden6. Frank Gore7. Marshawn Lynch8. LT9. Brian Westbrook10. Reggie Bush11. Jonathan Stewart12. Rashard Mendenhall13. Andre Johnson14. Larry Fitzgerald15. Braylon Edwards16. Reggie Wayne17. Tom Brady18. Peyton Manning19. Willis Mcgahee20. Marion Barber21. Randy Moss22. Felix Jones23. Marques Colston24. Ben RoethlisbergerI tend to overvalue youth a bit, but i would rather take a chance on a young RB than have a solid RB for only a year or two.

Ryan Grant forgot about or left off on purpose?

 

[Burning Sensation]

Here is what the first two rounds of a non-PPR, 6 points for all TD's initial dynasty draft would probably look like if i had each pick.1. AD2. Stephen Jackson3. Joseph Addai4. Maurice Jones-Drew5. Darren Mcfadden6. Frank Gore7. Marshawn Lynch8. LT9. Brian Westbrook10. Reggie Bush11. Jonathan Stewart12. Rashard Mendenhall13. Andre Johnson14. Larry Fitzgerald15. Braylon Edwards16. Reggie Wayne17. Tom Brady18. Peyton Manning19. Willis Mcgahee20. Marion Barber21. Randy Moss22. Felix Jones23. Marques Colston24. Ben RoethlisbergerI tend to overvalue youth a bit, but i would rather take a chance on a young RB than have a solid RB for only a year or two.

Ryan Grant forgot about or left off on purpose?

Left off on purpose, i would probably put him somewhere in the early 3rd along with Romo, Portis, White, Steve Smith and Chad Johnson.

 

[LILB811]

Here is what the first two rounds of a non-PPR, 6 points for all TD's initial dynasty draft would probably look like if i had each pick.1. AD2. Stephen Jackson3. Joseph Addai4. Maurice Jones-Drew5. Darren Mcfadden6. Frank Gore7. Marshawn Lynch8. LT9. Brian Westbrook10. Reggie Bush11. Jonathan Stewart12. Rashard Mendenhall13. Andre Johnson14. Larry Fitzgerald15. Braylon Edwards16. Reggie Wayne17. Tom Brady18. Peyton Manning19. Willis Mcgahee20. Marion Barber21. Randy Moss22. Felix Jones23. Marques Colston24. Ben RoethlisbergerI tend to overvalue youth a bit, but i would rather take a chance on a young RB than have a solid RB for only a year or two.

Ryan Grant forgot about or left off on purpose?

Left off on purpose, i would probably put him somewhere in the early 3rd along with Romo, Portis, White, Steve Smith and Chad Johnson.

Putting Portis and LenDale anywhere near each other is a mistake. Portis is a proven back, still only 26, and has a good 5 years left in him. I'll take him all day over Mendenhall, who hasn't even stepped on an NFL field yet.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Here is what the first two rounds of a non-PPR, 6 points for all TD's initial dynasty draft would probably look like if i had each pick.1. AD2. Stephen Jackson3. Joseph Addai4. Maurice Jones-Drew5. Darren Mcfadden6. Frank Gore7. Marshawn Lynch8. LT9. Brian Westbrook10. Reggie Bush11. Jonathan Stewart12. Rashard Mendenhall13. Andre Johnson14. Larry Fitzgerald15. Braylon Edwards16. Reggie Wayne17. Tom Brady18. Peyton Manning19. Willis Mcgahee20. Marion Barber21. Randy Moss22. Felix Jones23. Marques Colston24. Ben RoethlisbergerI tend to overvalue youth a bit, but i would rather take a chance on a young RB than have a solid RB for only a year or two.

Ryan Grant forgot about or left off on purpose?

Left off on purpose, i would probably put him somewhere in the early 3rd along with Romo, Portis, White, Steve Smith and Chad Johnson.

Putting Portis and LenDale anywhere near each other is a mistake. Portis is a proven back, still only 26, and has a good 5 years left in him. I'll take him all day over Mendenhall, who hasn't even stepped on an NFL field yet.

I admit, i probably undervalue Portis, but there is no way i would take him in the first two rounds of a dynasty league unless it was for purpose of trade. No way i take him over Mendenhall, especially if he ends up on the Texans or Seahawks.

 

[redman]

Here is what the first two rounds of a non-PPR, 6 points for all TD's initial dynasty draft would probably look like if i had each pick.1. AD2. Stephen Jackson3. Joseph Addai4. Maurice Jones-Drew5. Darren Mcfadden6. Frank Gore7. Marshawn Lynch8. LT9. Brian Westbrook10. Reggie Bush11. Jonathan Stewart12. Rashard Mendenhall13. Andre Johnson14. Larry Fitzgerald15. Braylon Edwards16. Reggie Wayne17. Tom Brady18. Peyton Manning19. Willis Mcgahee20. Marion Barber21. Randy Moss22. Felix Jones23. Marques Colston24. Ben RoethlisbergerI tend to overvalue youth a bit, but i would rather take a chance on a young RB than have a solid RB for only a year or two.

Ryan Grant forgot about or left off on purpose?

Left off on purpose, i would probably put him somewhere in the early 3rd along with Romo, Portis, White, Steve Smith and Chad Johnson.

Putting Portis and LenDale anywhere near each other is a mistake. Portis is a proven back, still only 26, and has a good 5 years left in him. I'll take him all day over Mendenhall, who hasn't even stepped on an NFL field yet.

I admit, i probably undervalue Portis, but there is no way i would take him in the first two rounds of a dynasty league unless it was for purpose of trade. No way i take him over Mendenhall, especially if he ends up on the Texans or Seahawks.

First round picks are 50/50 propositions. For every AP there's a Ki-Jana Carter. Other guys are good, but take years sometimes to figure out how to get into NFL shape that allows them to last an entire season, e.g. Fred Taylor. Portis is a sure thing insofar as you know he'll win a starting job, and you have a very good idea what his performance and durability is like. I like Mendenhall, a lot actually, but I think Portis is around the point on your dynasty rankings list where you start paying more attention to the uncertainty of rookie draft picks.

 

[LILB811]

Here is what the first two rounds of a non-PPR, 6 points for all TD's initial dynasty draft would probably look like if i had each pick.1. AD2. Stephen Jackson3. Joseph Addai4. Maurice Jones-Drew5. Darren Mcfadden6. Frank Gore7. Marshawn Lynch8. LT9. Brian Westbrook10. Reggie Bush11. Jonathan Stewart12. Rashard Mendenhall13. Andre Johnson14. Larry Fitzgerald15. Braylon Edwards16. Reggie Wayne17. Tom Brady18. Peyton Manning19. Willis Mcgahee20. Marion Barber21. Randy Moss22. Felix Jones23. Marques Colston24. Ben RoethlisbergerI tend to overvalue youth a bit, but i would rather take a chance on a young RB than have a solid RB for only a year or two.

Ryan Grant forgot about or left off on purpose?

Left off on purpose, i would probably put him somewhere in the early 3rd along with Romo, Portis, White, Steve Smith and Chad Johnson.

Putting Portis and LenDale anywhere near each other is a mistake. Portis is a proven back, still only 26, and has a good 5 years left in him. I'll take him all day over Mendenhall, who hasn't even stepped on an NFL field yet.

I admit, i probably undervalue Portis, but there is no way i would take him in the first two rounds of a dynasty league unless it was for purpose of trade. No way i take him over Mendenhall, especially if he ends up on the Texans or Seahawks.

I definitely did the same before this season, but I traded for him last offseason and I couldn't be happier. I think if more people had Portis on their teams, they wouldn't undervalue him as much. In PPR he only had one game all season under 10 points. I'm not sure about Mendenhall yet, but where he lands definitely will dictate some of his value.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Here is what the first two rounds of a non-PPR, 6 points for all TD's initial dynasty draft would probably look like if i had each pick.1. AD2. Stephen Jackson3. Joseph Addai4. Maurice Jones-Drew5. Darren Mcfadden6. Frank Gore7. Marshawn Lynch8. LT9. Brian Westbrook10. Reggie Bush11. Jonathan Stewart12. Rashard Mendenhall13. Andre Johnson14. Larry Fitzgerald15. Braylon Edwards16. Reggie Wayne17. Tom Brady18. Peyton Manning19. Willis Mcgahee20. Marion Barber21. Randy Moss22. Felix Jones23. Marques Colston24. Ben RoethlisbergerI tend to overvalue youth a bit, but i would rather take a chance on a young RB than have a solid RB for only a year or two.

Ryan Grant forgot about or left off on purpose?

Left off on purpose, i would probably put him somewhere in the early 3rd along with Romo, Portis, White, Steve Smith and Chad Johnson.

Putting Portis and LenDale anywhere near each other is a mistake. Portis is a proven back, still only 26, and has a good 5 years left in him. I'll take him all day over Mendenhall, who hasn't even stepped on an NFL field yet.

I admit, i probably undervalue Portis, but there is no way i would take him in the first two rounds of a dynasty league unless it was for purpose of trade. No way i take him over Mendenhall, especially if he ends up on the Texans or Seahawks.

First round picks are 50/50 propositions. For every AP there's a Ki-Jana Carter. Other guys are good, but take years sometimes to figure out how to get into NFL shape that allows them to last an entire season, e.g. Fred Taylor. Portis is a sure thing insofar as you know he'll win a starting job, and you have a very good idea what his performance and durability is like. I like Mendenhall, a lot actually, but I think Portis is around the point on your dynasty rankings list where you start paying more attention to the uncertainty of rookie draft picks.

There are plenty of people who agree with your "sure thing" philosophy, i am just not one of them. Mendenhall doesnt have to be AD to take the risk of a rookie over Portis. To me Portis has 3 seasons of 1200 yards and 7 TD's left(barring injury). If I can get a rookie who I think will put up numbers close to that, i will take him ahead of Portis. While Portis might be a more "sure thing" i dont think he has the upside a Mendenhall/Stewart might have, plus its more likely i get more years out of them.

 

[corpcow]

I just traded the 1.01, 3.01, and D Carter in a 14 teamer for L Fitzgerald, R White, 1.07,2.12 and his 2009 1st rounder.

Highway robbery. Good trade.

 

[corpcow]

Most people tend to overvalue youth, probably because the rookie hype every year is deafening. Every year, it's the best RB ever to enter the game. Hell, we don't even know where any of these go, where the high-profile FAs this year land, or whether any of them will have a starting job.... and we're STILL taking him over a guy like Portis or Westbrook or ... LT? Really?

 

[LILB811]

There are plenty of people who agree with your "sure thing" philosophy, i am just not one of them. Mendenhall doesnt have to be AD to take the risk of a rookie over Portis. To me Portis has 3 seasons of 1200 yards and 7 TD's left(barring injury). If I can get a rookie who I think will put up numbers close to that, i will take him ahead of Portis. While Portis might be a more "sure thing" i dont think he has the upside a Mendenhall/Stewart might have, plus its more likely i get more years out of them.

This is definitely understandable, but in 4 of the 5 seasons Portis has been healthy (excluding 2006), hes put up 1600 total yards and at least 11 td's. Not many guys will give you that. 1200 yards and 7 td's seems like a very low expectation

 

[Burning Sensation]

There are plenty of people who agree with your "sure thing" philosophy, i am just not one of them. Mendenhall doesnt have to be AD to take the risk of a rookie over Portis. To me Portis has 3 seasons of 1200 yards and 7 TD's left(barring injury). If I can get a rookie who I think will put up numbers close to that, i will take him ahead of Portis. While Portis might be a more "sure thing" i dont think he has the upside a Mendenhall/Stewart might have, plus its more likely i get more years out of them.

This is definitely understandable, but in 4 of the 5 seasons Portis has been healthy (excluding 2006), hes put up 1600 total yards and at least 11 td's. Not many guys will give you that. 1200 yards and 7 td's seems like a very low expectation

It probably is a bit low, but like i said, i probably undervalue Portis. He will be 27 before next season, and has alot of tread on his tires, i am not so sure he will be getting 300+ carries a season for much longer.

 

[FUBAR]

Most people tend to overvalue youth, probably because the rookie hype every year is deafening. Every year, it's the best RB ever to enter the game. Hell, we don't even know where any of these go, where the high-profile FAs this year land, or whether any of them will have a starting job.... and we're STILL taking him over a guy like Portis or Westbrook or ... LT? Really?

Westbrook is still extremely underrated. My guess is Gore will be out of the league, or at least, irrelevant in FF, before Westbrook is. LT has a lot of carries, but I'm still taking him top 3 at worst, probably #2. Roughly:1. AD2. Stephen Jackson3. LT4. Brian Westbrook5. Maurice Jones-Drew6. Joseph Addai7. Marshawn Lynch8. Reggie Bush9. Frank Gore10. Andre Johnson11. Braylon Edwards12. Darren Mcfadden13. Jonathan Stewart14. Larry Fitzgerald15. Clinton Portis16. Reggie Wayne17. Tom Brady18. Peyton Manning19. Willis Mcgahee20. Marion Barber21. Randy Moss22. Ryan Grant23. Ben Roethlisberger24. Tony Romo25. Larry Johnson I tend to like a stud QB in dynasty leagues. After you get past the top RBs who have performed and stil have tread left and the elite rookie talents, I'll take my franchise QB. I play in mostly PPR leagues and don't like leagues that allow 3 RBs to start.

 

[redman]

Here is what the first two rounds of a non-PPR, 6 points for all TD's initial dynasty draft would probably look like if i had each pick.1. AD2. Stephen Jackson3. Joseph Addai4. Maurice Jones-Drew5. Darren Mcfadden6. Frank Gore7. Marshawn Lynch8. LT9. Brian Westbrook10. Reggie Bush11. Jonathan Stewart12. Rashard Mendenhall13. Andre Johnson14. Larry Fitzgerald15. Braylon Edwards16. Reggie Wayne17. Tom Brady18. Peyton Manning19. Willis Mcgahee20. Marion Barber21. Randy Moss22. Felix Jones23. Marques Colston24. Ben RoethlisbergerI tend to overvalue youth a bit, but i would rather take a chance on a young RB than have a solid RB for only a year or two.

Ryan Grant forgot about or left off on purpose?

Left off on purpose, i would probably put him somewhere in the early 3rd along with Romo, Portis, White, Steve Smith and Chad Johnson.

Putting Portis and LenDale anywhere near each other is a mistake. Portis is a proven back, still only 26, and has a good 5 years left in him. I'll take him all day over Mendenhall, who hasn't even stepped on an NFL field yet.

I admit, i probably undervalue Portis, but there is no way i would take him in the first two rounds of a dynasty league unless it was for purpose of trade. No way i take him over Mendenhall, especially if he ends up on the Texans or Seahawks.

First round picks are 50/50 propositions. For every AP there's a Ki-Jana Carter. Other guys are good, but take years sometimes to figure out how to get into NFL shape that allows them to last an entire season, e.g. Fred Taylor. Portis is a sure thing insofar as you know he'll win a starting job, and you have a very good idea what his performance and durability is like. I like Mendenhall, a lot actually, but I think Portis is around the point on your dynasty rankings list where you start paying more attention to the uncertainty of rookie draft picks.

There are plenty of people who agree with your "sure thing" philosophy, i am just not one of them. Mendenhall doesnt have to be AD to take the risk of a rookie over Portis. To me Portis has 3 seasons of 1200 yards and 7 TD's left(barring injury). If I can get a rookie who I think will put up numbers close to that, i will take him ahead of Portis. While Portis might be a more "sure thing" i dont think he has the upside a Mendenhall/Stewart might have, plus its more likely i get more years out of them.

I'm curious then - how far out do you project value? I ask because three years tends to be limit most people respond with, and three more years of 1200/7 is easily starting quality numbers for a FF RB.

 

[sparkky]

For what it's worth, I just traded for the 1.01 in one of my dynasty leagues.12 teams, ppr, 25-man rosters.I gave:Santonio HolmesSidney Rice1.082.01I received:1.012.09I have a pretty strong and deep team, so I could afford to give up the WRs and mid-high picks without degrading my roster too much.

I think I would have done that too. You didn't lose a rb like you said, and didn't lose a starter overall. You still have quality starters at wr and others for spot starts. You also are now in position to field offers around draft time to maybe move down to 1.2 or 1.3 where you can still get a pretty highly rated rb. good luck.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Here is what the first two rounds of a non-PPR, 6 points for all TD's initial dynasty draft would probably look like if i had each pick.1. AD2. Stephen Jackson3. Joseph Addai4. Maurice Jones-Drew5. Darren Mcfadden6. Frank Gore7. Marshawn Lynch8. LT9. Brian Westbrook10. Reggie Bush11. Jonathan Stewart12. Rashard Mendenhall13. Andre Johnson14. Larry Fitzgerald15. Braylon Edwards16. Reggie Wayne17. Tom Brady18. Peyton Manning19. Willis Mcgahee20. Marion Barber21. Randy Moss22. Felix Jones23. Marques Colston24. Ben RoethlisbergerI tend to overvalue youth a bit, but i would rather take a chance on a young RB than have a solid RB for only a year or two.

Ryan Grant forgot about or left off on purpose?

Left off on purpose, i would probably put him somewhere in the early 3rd along with Romo, Portis, White, Steve Smith and Chad Johnson.

Putting Portis and LenDale anywhere near each other is a mistake. Portis is a proven back, still only 26, and has a good 5 years left in him. I'll take him all day over Mendenhall, who hasn't even stepped on an NFL field yet.

I admit, i probably undervalue Portis, but there is no way i would take him in the first two rounds of a dynasty league unless it was for purpose of trade. No way i take him over Mendenhall, especially if he ends up on the Texans or Seahawks.

First round picks are 50/50 propositions. For every AP there's a Ki-Jana Carter. Other guys are good, but take years sometimes to figure out how to get into NFL shape that allows them to last an entire season, e.g. Fred Taylor. Portis is a sure thing insofar as you know he'll win a starting job, and you have a very good idea what his performance and durability is like. I like Mendenhall, a lot actually, but I think Portis is around the point on your dynasty rankings list where you start paying more attention to the uncertainty of rookie draft picks.

There are plenty of people who agree with your "sure thing" philosophy, i am just not one of them. Mendenhall doesnt have to be AD to take the risk of a rookie over Portis. To me Portis has 3 seasons of 1200 yards and 7 TD's left(barring injury). If I can get a rookie who I think will put up numbers close to that, i will take him ahead of Portis. While Portis might be a more "sure thing" i dont think he has the upside a Mendenhall/Stewart might have, plus its more likely i get more years out of them.

I'm curious then - how far out do you project value? I ask because three years tends to be limit most people respond with, and three more years of 1200/7 is easily starting quality numbers for a FF RB.

I would probably say 5 years. I like my RB's 25, WR's 28 and QB's 30, or younger of course. I usually wont add, wether it be by draft or trade, a player older than that. Not just for longevity, but more so i want a player who is entering, or in their prime, as opposed to a player who is on the decline of their career. Portis, LT, and Westbrook are the type of players i am trading right now, not adding to my team.

 

[RaiderBones]

Most people tend to overvalue youth, probably because the rookie hype every year is deafening. Every year, it's the best RB ever to enter the game. Hell, we don't even know where any of these go, where the high-profile FAs this year land, or whether any of them will have a starting job.... and we're STILL taking him over a guy like Portis or Westbrook or ... LT? Really?

I was totaly shocked myself. I have offered LT for the 1.01 and 1.02 and have been shot down every time. I am in a rebuilding mode but can't get good value for LT so I am hanging on to him at this point. I agree people way over value rookie picks. There has been just as many busts as there has been success stories for top picks.

 

[corpcow]

Most people tend to overvalue youth, probably because the rookie hype every year is deafening. Every year, it's the best RB ever to enter the game. Hell, we don't even know where any of these go, where the high-profile FAs this year land, or whether any of them will have a starting job.... and we're STILL taking him over a guy like Portis or Westbrook or ... LT? Really?

I was totaly shocked myself. I have offered LT for the 1.01 and 1.02 and have been shot down every time. I am in a rebuilding mode but can't get good value for LT so I am hanging on to him at this point. I agree people way over value rookie picks. There has been just as many busts as there has been success stories for top picks.

With that in mind, I thought it might be worhwhile to look top 20 RBs and top 20 QBs to see where they drafted. Not sure what this tells us except that draft position is indicative, but not dispositive, for success - which we already knew.Top RBs...Round 1: LT, Addai, Peterson, Jamal Lewis, McGahee, Lynch, Fred Taylor, S.Jax, James. (Of these, half were top 10 picks).Round 2: Portis, Lendale, MJDRound 3: Westbrook, GoreRound 4: MBIIIRound 6: Jacobs, Chester TaylorUndrafted: Graham, Grant, Watson, Willie ParkerInother words, 9/21 came from the first round, but 7/21 came in rounds 4 or later. Granted, some of those guys may or may not be in the top 20 next year - Watson jumps out to me - but you could probably grab most of them with a 3-4th round rookie pick at the earliest (assuming IDP).QBs are even more interesting. 2 of the top 5 were 6th rounders (Brady, Anderson) and 1 was undrafted (Romo). In fact, in the top 15 finishes, nearly half were drafted on the second day: add to the list Warner (undrafted), Hasselbeck (6th round), Garrard (4th), Kitna (undrafted). Round 1: Peyton, Eli, Carson (all 1.1), Big Ben, Cutler, McNabb (1.2) (rivers if we go to top 16)Round 2: Brees, FavreRound 3: NoneRound 4: GarrardRound 5: NoneRound 6: Brady, Anderson, HasselbeckUndrafted: Romo, Kitna, Warner Six (mostly top 5) early picks, and six 6th/UDFA. Grab those sixth rounders baby.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Most people tend to overvalue youth, probably because the rookie hype every year is deafening. Every year, it's the best RB ever to enter the game. Hell, we don't even know where any of these go, where the high-profile FAs this year land, or whether any of them will have a starting job.... and we're STILL taking him over a guy like Portis or Westbrook or ... LT? Really?

I was totaly shocked myself. I have offered LT for the 1.01 and 1.02 and have been shot down every time. I am in a rebuilding mode but can't get good value for LT so I am hanging on to him at this point. I agree people way over value rookie picks. There has been just as many busts as there has been success stories for top picks.

With that in mind, I thought it might be worhwhile to look top 20 RBs and top 20 QBs to see where they drafted. Not sure what this tells us except that draft position is indicative, but not dispositive, for success - which we already knew.Top RBs...Round 1: LT, Addai, Peterson, Jamal Lewis, McGahee, Lynch, Fred Taylor, S.Jax, James. (Of these, half were top 10 picks).Round 2: Portis, Lendale, MJDRound 3: Westbrook, GoreRound 4: MBIIIRound 6: Jacobs, Chester TaylorUndrafted: Graham, Grant, Watson, Willie ParkerInother words, 9/21 came from the first round, but 7/21 came in rounds 4 or later. Granted, some of those guys may or may not be in the top 20 next year - Watson jumps out to me - but you could probably grab most of them with a 3-4th round rookie pick at the earliest (assuming IDP).QBs are even more interesting. 2 of the top 5 were 6th rounders (Brady, Anderson) and 1 was undrafted (Romo). In fact, in the top 15 finishes, nearly half were drafted on the second day: add to the list Warner (undrafted), Hasselbeck (6th round), Garrard (4th), Kitna (undrafted). Round 1: Peyton, Eli, Carson (all 1.1), Big Ben, Cutler, McNabb (1.2) (rivers if we go to top 16)Round 2: Brees, FavreRound 3: NoneRound 4: GarrardRound 5: NoneRound 6: Brady, Anderson, HasselbeckUndrafted: Romo, Kitna, Warner Six (mostly top 5) early picks, and six 6th/UDFA. Grab those sixth rounders baby.

Bulger was a 6th rounder too.

 

[EBF]

Most people tend to overvalue youth, probably because the rookie hype every year is deafening. Every year, it's the best RB ever to enter the game. Hell, we don't even know where any of these go, where the high-profile FAs this year land, or whether any of them will have a starting job.... and we're STILL taking him over a guy like Portis or Westbrook or ... LT? Really?

I was totaly shocked myself. I have offered LT for the 1.01 and 1.02 and have been shot down every time. I am in a rebuilding mode but can't get good value for LT so I am hanging on to him at this point. I agree people way over value rookie picks. There has been just as many busts as there has been success stories for top picks.

With that in mind, I thought it might be worhwhile to look top 20 RBs and top 20 QBs to see where they drafted. Not sure what this tells us except that draft position is indicative, but not dispositive, for success - which we already knew.Top RBs...Round 1: LT, Addai, Peterson, Jamal Lewis, McGahee, Lynch, Fred Taylor, S.Jax, James. (Of these, half were top 10 picks).Round 2: Portis, Lendale, MJDRound 3: Westbrook, GoreRound 4: MBIIIRound 6: Jacobs, Chester TaylorUndrafted: Graham, Grant, Watson, Willie ParkerInother words, 9/21 came from the first round, but 7/21 came in rounds 4 or later. Granted, some of those guys may or may not be in the top 20 next year - Watson jumps out to me - but you could probably grab most of them with a 3-4th round rookie pick at the earliest (assuming IDP).QBs are even more interesting. 2 of the top 5 were 6th rounders (Brady, Anderson) and 1 was undrafted (Romo). In fact, in the top 15 finishes, nearly half were drafted on the second day: add to the list Warner (undrafted), Hasselbeck (6th round), Garrard (4th), Kitna (undrafted). Round 1: Peyton, Eli, Carson (all 1.1), Big Ben, Cutler, McNabb (1.2) (rivers if we go to top 16)Round 2: Brees, FavreRound 3: NoneRound 4: GarrardRound 5: NoneRound 6: Brady, Anderson, HasselbeckUndrafted: Romo, Kitna, Warner Six (mostly top 5) early picks, and six 6th/UDFA. Grab those sixth rounders baby.

When you look at the RBs who have held a starting job for multiple seasons (the real indicator of dynasty value), most of those guys were first day draft picks. So if you're looking for long-term contributors at RB, you should mostly focus on the first day guys. Dynasties aren't built around guys like Brandon Jacobs, Earnest Graham, and Chester Taylor. As for QBs, I really don't advocate drafting them in your rookie draft. WAY too much bust factor and even when they pan out, they're usually not very valuable. Consider the cost to acquire a good young QB like Cutler or Schaub versus the cost to acquire a good young WR or RB like Santonio Holmes or Marshawn Lynch. The best way to address the QB position is either to get one of the elite guys in your initial draft or to use your rookie picks on WRs and RBs and eventually trade those guys for an elite QB. There's an owner in one of my leagues who seems to take a QB with his first rookie pick every year. So far he has ended up with Byron Leftwich, Alex Smith, and Jay Cutler. Not good. Passing on QBs in your rookie draft is smart mathematics.

 

[FUBAR]

Most people tend to overvalue youth, probably because the rookie hype every year is deafening. Every year, it's the best RB ever to enter the game. Hell, we don't even know where any of these go, where the high-profile FAs this year land, or whether any of them will have a starting job.... and we're STILL taking him over a guy like Portis or Westbrook or ... LT? Really?

I was totaly shocked myself. I have offered LT for the 1.01 and 1.02 and have been shot down every time. I am in a rebuilding mode but can't get good value for LT so I am hanging on to him at this point. I agree people way over value rookie picks. There has been just as many busts as there has been success stories for top picks.

With that in mind, I thought it might be worhwhile to look top 20 RBs and top 20 QBs to see where they drafted. Not sure what this tells us except that draft position is indicative, but not dispositive, for success - which we already knew.Top RBs...

Round 1: LT, Addai, Peterson, Jamal Lewis, McGahee, Lynch, Fred Taylor, S.Jax, James. (Of these, half were top 10 picks).

Round 2: Portis, Lendale, MJD

Round 3: Westbrook, Gore

Round 4: MBIII

Round 6: Jacobs, Chester Taylor

Undrafted: Graham, Grant, Watson, Willie Parker

Inother words, 9/21 came from the first round, but 7/21 came in rounds 4 or later. Granted, some of those guys may or may not be in the top 20 next year - Watson jumps out to me - but you could probably grab most of them with a 3-4th round rookie pick at the earliest (assuming IDP).

QBs are even more interesting. 2 of the top 5 were 6th rounders (Brady, Anderson) and 1 was undrafted (Romo). In fact, in the top 15 finishes, nearly half were drafted on the second day: add to the list Warner (undrafted), Hasselbeck (6th round), Garrard (4th), Kitna (undrafted).

Round 1: Peyton, Eli, Carson (all 1.1), Big Ben, Cutler, McNabb (1.2) (rivers if we go to top 16)

Round 2: Brees, Favre

Round 3: None

Round 4: Garrard

Round 5: None

Round 6: Brady, Anderson, Hasselbeck

Undrafted: Romo, Kitna, Warner

Six (mostly top 5) early picks, and six 6th/UDFA. Grab those sixth rounders baby.

Bulger was a 6th rounder too.

What strikes me here is that out of the 6th rounders, every one of them came to a team (evetually, DA didn't start there) with an top WR corps or great team. I guess Hass may not qualify, but the Seahawks were pretty good when he went there.

 

[redman]

Here is what the first two rounds of a non-PPR, 6 points for all TD's initial dynasty draft would probably look like if i had each pick.1. AD2. Stephen Jackson3. Joseph Addai4. Maurice Jones-Drew5. Darren Mcfadden6. Frank Gore7. Marshawn Lynch8. LT9. Brian Westbrook10. Reggie Bush11. Jonathan Stewart12. Rashard Mendenhall13. Andre Johnson14. Larry Fitzgerald15. Braylon Edwards16. Reggie Wayne17. Tom Brady18. Peyton Manning19. Willis Mcgahee20. Marion Barber21. Randy Moss22. Felix Jones23. Marques Colston24. Ben RoethlisbergerI tend to overvalue youth a bit, but i would rather take a chance on a young RB than have a solid RB for only a year or two.

Ryan Grant forgot about or left off on purpose?

Left off on purpose, i would probably put him somewhere in the early 3rd along with Romo, Portis, White, Steve Smith and Chad Johnson.

Putting Portis and LenDale anywhere near each other is a mistake. Portis is a proven back, still only 26, and has a good 5 years left in him. I'll take him all day over Mendenhall, who hasn't even stepped on an NFL field yet.

I admit, i probably undervalue Portis, but there is no way i would take him in the first two rounds of a dynasty league unless it was for purpose of trade. No way i take him over Mendenhall, especially if he ends up on the Texans or Seahawks.

First round picks are 50/50 propositions. For every AP there's a Ki-Jana Carter. Other guys are good, but take years sometimes to figure out how to get into NFL shape that allows them to last an entire season, e.g. Fred Taylor. Portis is a sure thing insofar as you know he'll win a starting job, and you have a very good idea what his performance and durability is like. I like Mendenhall, a lot actually, but I think Portis is around the point on your dynasty rankings list where you start paying more attention to the uncertainty of rookie draft picks.

There are plenty of people who agree with your "sure thing" philosophy, i am just not one of them. Mendenhall doesnt have to be AD to take the risk of a rookie over Portis. To me Portis has 3 seasons of 1200 yards and 7 TD's left(barring injury). If I can get a rookie who I think will put up numbers close to that, i will take him ahead of Portis. While Portis might be a more "sure thing" i dont think he has the upside a Mendenhall/Stewart might have, plus its more likely i get more years out of them.

I'm curious then - how far out do you project value? I ask because three years tends to be limit most people respond with, and three more years of 1200/7 is easily starting quality numbers for a FF RB.

I would probably say 5 years. I like my RB's 25, WR's 28 and QB's 30, or younger of course. I usually wont add, wether it be by draft or trade, a player older than that. Not just for longevity, but more so i want a player who is entering, or in their prime, as opposed to a player who is on the decline of their career. Portis, LT, and Westbrook are the type of players i am trading right now, not adding to my team.

Well, where there are differences in philosophy/opinion, there is value to be found in trade.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Here is what the first two rounds of a non-PPR, 6 points for all TD's initial dynasty draft would probably look like if i had each pick.1. AD2. Stephen Jackson3. Joseph Addai4. Maurice Jones-Drew5. Darren Mcfadden6. Frank Gore7. Marshawn Lynch8. LT9. Brian Westbrook10. Reggie Bush11. Jonathan Stewart12. Rashard Mendenhall13. Andre Johnson14. Larry Fitzgerald15. Braylon Edwards16. Reggie Wayne17. Tom Brady18. Peyton Manning19. Willis Mcgahee20. Marion Barber21. Randy Moss22. Felix Jones23. Marques Colston24. Ben RoethlisbergerI tend to overvalue youth a bit, but i would rather take a chance on a young RB than have a solid RB for only a year or two.

Ryan Grant forgot about or left off on purpose?

Left off on purpose, i would probably put him somewhere in the early 3rd along with Romo, Portis, White, Steve Smith and Chad Johnson.

Putting Portis and LenDale anywhere near each other is a mistake. Portis is a proven back, still only 26, and has a good 5 years left in him. I'll take him all day over Mendenhall, who hasn't even stepped on an NFL field yet.

I admit, i probably undervalue Portis, but there is no way i would take him in the first two rounds of a dynasty league unless it was for purpose of trade. No way i take him over Mendenhall, especially if he ends up on the Texans or Seahawks.

First round picks are 50/50 propositions. For every AP there's a Ki-Jana Carter. Other guys are good, but take years sometimes to figure out how to get into NFL shape that allows them to last an entire season, e.g. Fred Taylor. Portis is a sure thing insofar as you know he'll win a starting job, and you have a very good idea what his performance and durability is like. I like Mendenhall, a lot actually, but I think Portis is around the point on your dynasty rankings list where you start paying more attention to the uncertainty of rookie draft picks.

There are plenty of people who agree with your "sure thing" philosophy, i am just not one of them. Mendenhall doesnt have to be AD to take the risk of a rookie over Portis. To me Portis has 3 seasons of 1200 yards and 7 TD's left(barring injury). If I can get a rookie who I think will put up numbers close to that, i will take him ahead of Portis. While Portis might be a more "sure thing" i dont think he has the upside a Mendenhall/Stewart might have, plus its more likely i get more years out of them.

I'm curious then - how far out do you project value? I ask because three years tends to be limit most people respond with, and three more years of 1200/7 is easily starting quality numbers for a FF RB.

I would probably say 5 years. I like my RB's 25, WR's 28 and QB's 30, or younger of course. I usually wont add, wether it be by draft or trade, a player older than that. Not just for longevity, but more so i want a player who is entering, or in their prime, as opposed to a player who is on the decline of their career. Portis, LT, and Westbrook are the type of players i am trading right now, not adding to my team.

Well, where there are differences in philosophy/opinion, there is value to be found in trade.

That we agree on, if everyone felt the way i did, i wouldnt be able to stockpile draft picks every year.

 

[corpcow]

When you look at the RBs who have held a starting job for multiple seasons (the real indicator of dynasty value), most of those guys were first day draft picks. So if you're looking for long-term contributors at RB, you should mostly focus on the first day guys. Dynasties aren't built around guys like Brandon Jacobs, Earnest Graham, and Chester Taylor. As for QBs, I really don't advocate drafting them in your rookie draft. WAY too much bust factor and even when they pan out, they're usually not very valuable. Consider the cost to acquire a good young QB like Cutler or Schaub versus the cost to acquire a good young WR or RB like Santonio Holmes or Marshawn Lynch. The best way to address the QB position is either to get one of the elite guys in your initial draft or to use your rookie picks on WRs and RBs and eventually trade those guys for an elite QB. There's an owner in one of my leagues who seems to take a QB with his first rookie pick every year. So far he has ended up with Byron Leftwich, Alex Smith, and Jay Cutler. Not good. Passing on QBs in your rookie draft is smart mathematics.

I actually went with Russell in one of my drafts last year at 1.04, but just because I wasn't sold on any of the RBs after ADP and Lynch and was planning on grabbing a WR/RB with 1.12 depending on who was left (ended up with Rice). I just felt Russell had a better chance to make an impact on my team than Bush, Brandon Jackson or Chris Henry who were my other likely choices if I went RB. But yes, in general, you're right which is exactly why RBs fly off the board. Dynasties may not be built around guys like Jacobs and Taylor, but that volatility is the point - there are often more starters from year to year that can be found cheap based on injury who are more than viable starters. Many teams won championships by picking Graham late, even if he's not the cornerstone of their team. And honestly, seeing the way they've run this year, I wouldn't count Graham or Grant out in terms of future value. Also, Ahmad Bradshaw was a 7th rounder who I could honestly see emerge as a starter in the future. I had him on as many rosters as I could afford him early on.

 

[gianmarco]

Just to add for reference for others:

In one of my dynasty leagues, the 1.1 pick was just traded for the 1.3, 1.6, and 1.7.

I personally think giving up all those picks for the 1.1 was way too much, but he has his heart set on McFadden. Of note, he still owns the 1.8 as well.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Just to add for reference for others:In one of my dynasty leagues, the 1.1 pick was just traded for the 1.3, 1.6, and 1.7.I personally think giving up all those picks for the 1.1 was way too much, but he has his heart set on McFadden. Of note, he still owns the 1.8 as well.

I have the 1.1 in one of my leagues, and it would be hard to get me to part with it, but that would certainly work.

 

[EBF]

Just to add for reference for others:In one of my dynasty leagues, the 1.1 pick was just traded for the 1.3, 1.6, and 1.7.I personally think giving up all those picks for the 1.1 was way too much, but he has his heart set on McFadden. Of note, he still owns the 1.8 as well.

Yea, the guy getting 1.01 got skinned here. 1.03 is comparable in value. Adding in 1.06 and 1.07 makes it a landslide.

 

[FUBAR]

Just to add for reference for others:In one of my dynasty leagues, the 1.1 pick was just traded for the 1.3, 1.6, and 1.7.I personally think giving up all those picks for the 1.1 was way too much, but he has his heart set on McFadden. Of note, he still owns the 1.8 as well.

Yea, the guy getting 1.01 got skinned here. 1.03 is comparable in value. Adding in 1.06 and 1.07 makes it a landslide.

While you're probably right, this depends on roster size and the actual rosters. If the team that traded the three picks for 1.01 would have had to drop players he likes, but now gets to keep them, it's a good deal for him while obviously also good for the other team. I often make 2:1 or 3:1 trades where if looked at alone I got skimmed, but they help my team.

 

[redman]

Just to add for reference for others:In one of my dynasty leagues, the 1.1 pick was just traded for the 1.3, 1.6, and 1.7.I personally think giving up all those picks for the 1.1 was way too much, but he has his heart set on McFadden. Of note, he still owns the 1.8 as well.

Yea, the guy getting 1.01 got skinned here. 1.03 is comparable in value. Adding in 1.06 and 1.07 makes it a landslide.

At 1.03 you're going to end up in all liklihood with Mendenhall or Stewart at worst. We don't know which teams they'll play for, but I can't see how that's such a huge step down from McFadden, who I do like too BTW.