Trading out of the 1st round in rookie drafts... (1 Viewer)

[Lord of the Rings]

Don't know if I've seen this posted yet. Didn't find it in a search.

What would be considered a fair deal in trying to trade away 1st round rookie picks for more picks later in the draft and/or 2007 picks?

Let's just assume that rookie picks #1-4 will be Bush-Maroney-Williams-White. The 5-12 picks then could go a variety of ways (Leinart, Davis, Jackson, etc.) depending on need. If someone wanted to trade down or completely out of the 1st round what could he expect for picks #5-12 in terms of later picks?

For instance:

Team A has the 5th pick and is willing to move it for more picks later in the draft or even 2007 picks. Could he expect a 2006 2nd and 3rd? More? Less? How about a 2006 2nd and 2007 1st? More? Less? BTW, I don't own the 5th pick in any drafts, just using this as an example.

Is this where the FBG Pick Calculator comes into play? Or do you have another system, chart, that you follow. Anybody have a general rule of thumb when trading down to get more picks?

 

[wannabee]

Don't know if I've seen this posted yet. Didn't find it in a search.

What would be considered a fair deal in trying to trade away 1st round rookie picks for more picks later in the draft and/or 2007 picks?

Let's just assume that rookie picks #1-4 will be Bush-Maroney-Williams-White. The 5-12 picks then could go a variety of ways (Leinart, Davis, Jackson, etc.) depending on need. If someone wanted to trade down or completely out of the 1st round what could he expect for picks #5-12 in terms of later picks?

For instance:

Team A has the 5th pick and is willing to move it for more picks later in the draft or even 2007 picks. Could he expect a 2006 2nd and 3rd? More? Less? How about a 2006 2nd and 2007 1st? More? Less? BTW, I don't own the 5th pick in any drafts, just using this as an example.

Is this where the FBG Pick Calculator comes into play? Or do you have another system, chart, that you follow. Anybody have a general rule of thumb when trading down to get more picks?

I do not think the calculator can be used for this since the dropoff is so steep early on in the draft. The calculator may tell you that there is a 5-7% difference between 1.01 and 1.02. I think we know better. It is a great tool, when used right.A rule of thumb I use is that next year's picks are worth a round less than this year's picks. For example, if you want to trade for my 2006 2nd rounder, it will cost your 2007 1st rounder. This is a very general rule, but is a decent starting point.

 

[TME]

Later round picks are usually not that valuable. It all depends how many positions you have to field and the starting requirements of your league, but in most rookie drafts you have three tiers. Tier 1 - get a starting rookie RB. Tier 2 - get the other good players at other positions and the second tier RBs. Tier 3 - everyone else. Now that's most leagues, but like I said, it depends.

 

[Keg]

way to much depends on who is falling where and what other teams needs are...

someone with nice WR depth might trade you what would be WR#3 for you for a pick if that WR is their WR#5

and another scenario...say you are sitting on 1.6 and V Davis is there and there is a team super hard up for a TE then the value you will get will be much different from a team not in such dire straights

 

[UnknownCoach]

Rookie 3rd round picks arent worth didley.

Trading a late first, you should be able to net a two second rounders with at least one of them estimating to be a high second round pick. Or you could trade it for a future unknown first.

A middle first rounder should be able to net a future first rounder plus something else like an 06 2nd round pick. If you traded down, it would be for a later first rounder plus a second.

Personally, if I had 1.5 I'd be hanging onto it really tightly until the draft. The same for 1.6. We have 4 RBs coming out rated as 1st rounders. At least one is bound to be put into a not so good situation. While at least one later picked rookie RB is likely to end up in a good situation. Which leaves drafters with a choice simuliar to Perry vs Bell. At 1.5 you end up with the leftover. Even if there's no 5th choice worthy RB, you are in a better position to trade after the NFL draft while the other rookies are all hyped to heaven than to trade beforehand.

 

[Riffraff]

First off, rookie picks are generally overrated.

Owners will pay out decent starters for that third tier RB that falls into a decent scenario (Denver's practice squad, LOL). They exchange proven production for the "what if" factor.

Trading a 1st rounder (1.05 in your example) for a 2nd and a 3rd rounder is terrible team management. The value difference is huge. May not be as bad if it was the last pick in the first round and the 2nd round pick was near the beginning of the round.

Scenarios to attain a first rounder:

1. First rounder in 2007 for a late first rounder in 2006.

2. Two 2nd rounders in 2006, one must be early in the round for either a mid to late 2006 or an unknown 2007 first rounder

3. A starter in the NFL can net you a first round pick. Plenty of older (yet productive) players can be bought this way.

4. IDP leagues. Players beyond the first round still have value, so perhaps a 2nd round pick + a lesser hopeful can get you into the first round.

5. The new guy to the dynasty league is a good target to steal a 1st round pick as they learn the value of the picks.

6. Trades in June - November can net you an additional first rounder as a throw in or deal sweetener. Not so in December - May... rookie fever is too high.

Hope this helps.

 

[The Duff Man]

1.5-1.7 can have a lot of value this year depending on your league and your needs. As already mentioned there will likely be a RB worth considering at 1.5. No WR will be taken yet, Davis deserves consideration and someone in your league might be drinking the Big 3 QB Kool-Aid.

 

[BigJim®]

Rookie 3rd round picks arent worth didley.

Trading a late first, you should be able to net a two second rounders with at least one of them estimating to be a high second round pick. Or you could trade it for a future unknown first.

A middle first rounder should be able to net a future first rounder plus something else like an 06 2nd round pick. If you traded down, it would be for a later first rounder plus a second.

Personally, if I had 1.5 I'd be hanging onto it really tightly until the draft. The same for 1.6. We have 4 RBs coming out rated as 1st rounders. At least one is bound to be put into a not so good situation. While at least one later picked rookie RB is likely to end up in a good situation. Which leaves drafters with a choice simuliar to Perry vs Bell. At 1.5 you end up with the leftover. Even if there's no 5th choice worthy RB, you are in a better position to trade after the NFL draft while the other rookies are all hyped to heaven than to trade beforehand.

 

[BigJim®]

First off, rookie picks are generally overrated.

Owners will pay out decent starters for that third tier RB that falls into a decent scenario (Denver's practice squad, LOL). They exchange proven production for the "what if" factor.

Trading a 1st rounder (1.05 in your example) for a 2nd and a 3rd rounder is terrible team management. The value difference is huge. May not be as bad if it was the last pick in the first round and the 2nd round pick was near the beginning of the round.

Scenarios to attain a first rounder:

1. First rounder in 2007 for a late first rounder in 2006.

2. Two 2nd rounders in 2006, one must be early in the round for either a mid to late 2006 or an unknown 2007 first rounder

3. A starter in the NFL can net you a first round pick. Plenty of older (yet productive) players can be bought this way.

4. IDP leagues. Players beyond the first round still have value, so perhaps a 2nd round pick + a lesser hopeful can get you into the first round.

5. The new guy to the dynasty league is a good target to steal a 1st round pick as they learn the value of the picks.

6. Trades in June - November can net you an additional first rounder as a throw in or deal sweetener. Not so in December - May... rookie fever is too high.

Hope this helps.

The only disagreement I have is your comment that rookie draft picks are generally overrated. I've found them to be generally underrated, particualrly in the seasons you mention and when dealing for future 1sts.

On trading 1.5, I agree with others that you need to hold the pick until post draft. A 2nd/3rd for a 1.5 is ludicrous. My impression is 1.5-1.10 in this draft should land very good dynasty talent, so I would insist on getting value for it. I'll actually be trying to accumulate late 1st rounders this year if I can.

 

[Avery]

Personally, if I had 1.5 I'd be hanging onto it really tightly until the draft. The same for 1.6. We have 4 RBs coming out rated as 1st rounders. At least one is bound to be put into a not so good situation. While at least one later picked rookie RB is likely to end up in a good situation. Which leaves drafters with a choice simuliar to Perry vs Bell. At 1.5 you end up with the leftover. Even if there's no 5th choice worthy RB, you are in a better position to trade after the NFL draft while the other rookies are all hyped to heaven than to trade beforehand.

Possibly, now if a good time to get value for the 1.05.Right now someone can be sold on the potential of White, Morency, Williams, Addai and Drew as starters for next year. After the NFL draft, it is likely that a number of these guys will not be in position to be starters and the 1.05 pick will not have the cashe as a "starting RB rookie pick" whereas right now it is just filled with potential.

It is a gambling move, but it may be a good time to sell that pick with the usual caveot that you would need to get something good in return.

 

[Lord of the Rings]

Personally, if I had 1.5 I'd be hanging onto it really tightly until the draft. The same for 1.6. We have 4 RBs coming out rated as 1st rounders. At least one is bound to be put into a not so good situation. While at least one later picked rookie RB is likely to end up in a good situation. Which leaves drafters with a choice simuliar to Perry vs Bell. At 1.5 you end up with the leftover. Even if there's no 5th choice worthy RB, you are in a better position to trade after the NFL draft while the other rookies are all hyped to heaven than to trade beforehand.

Possibly, now if a good time to get value for the 1.05.Right now someone can be sold on the potential of White, Morency, Williams, Addai and Drew as starters for next year. After the NFL draft, it is likely that a number of these guys will not be in position to be starters and the 1.05 pick will not have the cashe as a "starting RB rookie pick" whereas right now it is just filled with potential.

It is a gambling move, but it may be a good time to sell that pick with the usual caveot that you would need to get something good in return.

Good stuff so far. I also wonder if trading draft picks before the NFL draft is advantageous. "Unknown potential" because of the unknown situation a player might land in should drive the value up a bit, right? Or am I looking at that wrong? After the draft, things will be more clear cut and owners might not be willing to trade up, so you wouldn't get as much in return. I guess it's kind of a catch22.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Team A has the 5th pick and is willing to move it for more picks later in the draft or even 2007 picks. Could he expect a 2006 2nd and 3rd? More? Less?

This is something that FF players (especially non-IDP players) need to get through their heads. This isn't the NFL draft. In an FF rookie draft 2nd and 3rd round picks are virtually worthless. I wouldn't trade the 1.05 pick (even though it is outside of the RBs at this point) for ten 2nd round picks.

 

[Imedos]

I'm going to wait to shop my picks til draft day.

I don't think I'll get any vets I like for them but maybe a future 1st + a 2nd or 3rd this year.

None of the players in this draft are likely to help my team.(have the 1.7 + 1.11) But there are some teams in the league that are a little desperate for qbs and wrs, so they might be willing to bite on something like that.

 

[Fiddles.]

I traded 1.9 for Jamal Lewis prior to the anderson signing.

 

[cracKer]

Team A has the 5th pick and is willing to move it for more picks later in the draft or even 2007 picks.  Could he expect a 2006 2nd and 3rd?  More?  Less?

This is something that FF players (especially non-IDP players) need to get through their heads. This isn't the NFL draft. In an FF rookie draft 2nd and 3rd round picks are virtually worthless. I wouldn't trade the 1.05 pick (even though it is outside of the RBs at this point) for ten 2nd round picks.

16 team IDP leaguelooking through some of the previous drafts...

Lofa Tatupu 4.03

Kirk Morrison 4.13

Cedric Houston 4.09

Shawntea Spencer 6.13

Matt Schaub 6.07

Demorrio Williams 6.02

Madieu Williams 4.09

Tony Hargrove 4.05

Osi Umenyiora 6.02

Chaun Thompson 5.16

Arnaz Battle 5.03

Nate Burleson 4.14

Kawika Mitchell 4.03

David Thornton 6.13

Will Witherspoon 6.04

There are no throw away picks in IDP. Offense goes early and often, leaving little in regards to late round offensive steals, but there are plenty of defensive studs to be had late.

 

[Lord of the Rings]

Thanks for pulling some of those player and draft position highlights Cracker. I was thinking the same thing.

In IDP leagues the 2nd and 3rd rounds can be goldmines because this is where a lot of the top prospects are taken. More than likely, the best IDP players come off the board in the late 2nd to the 4th rounds. Even the later rounds, as you illustrated, can contain some gems.

In a non-IDP league, I would still say that there is still value to be had in the 2nd round.