Travdogg's FA/1st round predictions (1 Viewer)

[travdogg]

I'm doing this by draft order, with FA signings between each pick. Not every team will be projected for FA signings, and many FAs (those I don't expect to get starting jobs especially) will be left out. Here goes nothing:

1. Tennessee=Abdul Carter DE Penn State, same number, same school, same freakish athletic talent that Micah Parsons has. I think the Titans have a hard time passing on an elite pass rusher at #1. Time will tell if he's as good as Parsons (a very high bar) but he'll be the best pass rusher the Titans have had in a very long time.

QB Aaron Rodgers, if he wants to continue playing (and I think he does) I don't think beggars will get to be choosers. I do think this is maybe the only team where he'd be the unquestioned starter and they can keep Levis as the #2.

WR Christian Kirk, I'm expecting him to be a cap casualty (I'll have many in here) as I think he and Evan Engram are somewhat redundant, and Kirk has finished each of the last 2 years on IR. He's still a solid #2, and compliments Calvin Ridley well.

G Zack Martin, its possible he retires, but I could see him getting one last payday from the Titans who could use a RG.

2. Cleveland=Cam Ward QB Miami, plays bigger than his size in my opinion as he has a huge arm, and is fearless in the pocket. The ceiling is extremely high here, but he's a little riskier than you'd like for a QB1 in a class. Browns need a QB and also can't spend money on one. This is a best of both worlds scenario, even if Travis Hunter is a MUCH safer pick.

3. NY Giants=Travis Hunter CB Colorado, I'm of the opinion that Hunter is a very good WR, but potentially the best CB in the NFL. So, I think he plays CB. The Giants need a #1 CB badly, especially in a division with AJ Brown, CeeDee Lamb, DeVonta Smith, and Terry McLaurin.

QB Russell Wilson, this may seem like a weird fit at first, but I think Daboll's biggest issue with Daniel Jones was the lack of deep balls. Some of that was OL, but also Jones lacked/lost confidence. I think Daboll (and Schoen) are very much on the hot seat, probably more than any HC/GM in the NFL, and don't have time to draft/develop a guy.

WR Hollywood Brown, #2 job is wide open opposite Malik Nabers, and Brown feels like a good fit for Wilson, with Wan'Dale in the slot. I'm not a huge fan of Brown, but he's undoubtably an upgrade from Slayton at least.

G Dalton Risner, OL still needs help and Risner is an upgrade at RG over Van Roten.

4. New England= OL Will Campbell LSU, I personally think Campbell can absolutely play LT, but his versatility will surely be loved by Vrabel/McDaniels. Could see him anywhere on the OL. I think developing Maye is priority #1, and protection>weapons feels like where the staff will fall, though I expect both to be addressed in a VERY active FA for NE.

OT Ronnie Stanley, I think the Ravens are forced to let him walk, as his contract will be too much for them. He's a quality LT when healthy, that health has been an issue though.

OT Cornelius Lucas, possible he stays in Washington, but I don't think he'll be a priority for them. I think he likely plays RT for NE.

WR Tee Higgins, I think its 50-50 he stays in Cincinnati, but if he leaves, this is 99.9% his destination. I don't know if he's truly a #1 WR, but he'll easily be the best Pats WR since at least Edelman.

DT Milton Williams, I think he'll (and several Eagles) be looking to cash in off a big Super Bowl. Pats DT situation is dire, with only Barmore as a good starter, and he's got major health issues with blood clots.

CB Charvarious Ward, they simply offer more money than SF does. Ward fits as another physical CB opposite rising star Gonzalez.

DE Samson Ebukam, on the downslope, I expect him to be cut, but pass rush is pretty non-existent after Keion White.

OL Austin Corbett, coming off a torn biceps, gives them depth behind Andrews/Strange at C, while being able to start at G if need be.

5. Jacksonville=Mason Graham DT Michigan, explosive gap shooter, Jags have pass rush issues, despite Josh Allen-Hines and Travon Walker's presence.

G Brandon Scherff, its a re-sign but I want to highlight it, as I think he'd have left had Coen not been hired, or perhaps Baalke not been fired I guess. He's still a solid starter at 33.

CB Brandon Stephens, was sometimes picked on in Baltimore, but he's better than what the Jags have been starting opposite Tyson Campbell. One man's trash/treasure and all.

S Andre Cisco, another re-sign, Cisco is a bit of a ballhawk and shouldn't break the bank to keep. I think the Jags (unlike NE) take the rebuild slow.

6. Las Vegas=Will Johnson CB Michigan, almost a clone of DPOY Patrick Surtain. I think Pete Carroll will love his size and physicality.

QB Sam Darnold, this just makes so much sense. Darnold is a natural fit in a Chip Kelly offense, and will have a decent OL, and a few solid weapons. I think the Vikings could tag/trade, but I think they are pretty happy going with JJ.

LB Zack Baun, this one may surprise some people, and I think Philly would love to keep him, but I can see Baun wanting to cash in big (after not being a high-paid player) and Carroll thinking he's his new Bobby Wagner.

S Justin Reid, can't see KC being able to outbid anyone for him, and another guy I think fits what Carroll likes, as he can cover and tackle among the best. I think Carroll uses the draft/FA to try to setup another Legion of Boom type defense.

S Amani Hooker, I expect him to be cut, and brought in to be the starter opposite Reid, giving the Raiders a suddenly interesting back 7.

RB Austin Ekeler, I think he's a cap casualty (due to age/durability) and while I think the Raiders also address RB after round 1 in the draft, Ekeler is a guy Carroll has spoken highly of, and I think fits well in Kelly's scheme.

7. New Orleans (from NYJ)=Shedeur Sanders QB Colorado, I personally want nothing to do with Sanders this high, but I think some team convinces themselves he's the guy. I have the Saints trading Derek Carr and the #9 to get this pick (and maybe a later pick as well) NO needs a cap reset and a rookie QB helps that a ton, while also allowing a rebuild.

8. Carolina=Tyler Warren TE Penn State, Bryce Young took a big step forward down the stretch, and adding weapons is priority #1. With a 1st spent on Xavier Legette last season, I think TE is a bigger priority (sorry Ja'Tavion Sanders) I could see Carolina hoping for a Bowers-like impact. Warren isn't THAT great a prospect in my eyes, but he's pretty great, and is a somewhat similar prospect. Less RAC, more vertical perhpas?

CB Asante Samuel, Carolina has nothing at CB besides Horn (who himself has missed close to half his career) Samuel feels like a cheaper young dart throw with upside.

DE DeMarcus Lawrence, writing feels on the wall that Dallas lets him walk. He's a big-time leader, and still a quality starter at 33. Panthers had NFL's worst pass rush in 2024.

9. NY Jets (from New Orleans)=Tetairoa McMillan WR Arizona, despite trading for Carr, I don't see them keeping Adams, who I think goes ring chasing (more on that later) I think adding a WR with size opposite Garrett Wilson is a wise move going forward. I REALLY like McMillan and wouldn't be surprised one bit, if he were the better Jets WR going forward.

QB Derek Carr, I just don't see them doing a hard reset in NY, especially as its a wide-open division after Buffalo. Carr played really well in NO last season, before he ran out of weapons.

CB Eric Stokes, feels like a reclamation project for Aaron Glenn. I think DJ Reed walks, so #2 CB has an opening.

10. Chicago=Kelvin Banks OL Texas, I think Ben Johnson is coming in with an edict of building up the OL. I don't think the OL is anywhere near as bad as people think it was, it was league average, but I think modeling after the Lions is the goal. I think Banks profiles more as a G than a T but has elite upside. I could see him being not being a week 1 starter though.

OL Patrick Mekari, long-time utility piece for Baltimore, I think he gets paid more to do much of the same in Chicago.

G Kevin Zeitler, I think he follows Johnson from Detroit to play RG. At 35 might be in his last season.

C Drew Dalman, amazing run blocker the Falcons would love to keep, but they have major cap issues, and extending Drake London is probably a bigger priority.

WR Tyler Lockett, I think he's a cap casualty. I think Keenan Allen leaves for greener pastures (more on that later) but Lockett still gives them that veteran presence at #3 WR.

 

[travdogg]

11. San Francisco=Malaki Starks S Georgia, a do everything playmaker on the back end, with the upside to be a top-5 Safety as a rookie.

DT Osi Odighizuwa, a younger version of Javon Hargrave, who isn't coming off a torn triceps.

CB Rasul Douglas, not as big or physical as Ward, but cheaper and more versatile.

G Aaron Banks, I think re-signing him is a priority. Solid starter at age 27.

12. Dallas=Mykel Williams DE Georgia, extremely high ceiling athlete who could be an excellent bookend opposite Parsons for years to come. Better against run than pass right now (that's kind of a Georgia thing) and in my opinion, a bigger need than the popular Jeanty pick is.

13. Miami=Jalon Walker LB Georgia, I think the NFL will like him more than I do. Has a lot of versatility and both rush the passer and cover. I think just adding a defensive playmaker is need #1 for Miami. Some would argue OL, but depth is better there as is DB.

14. Indianapolis=James Pearce DE Tennessee, a top-10 prospect in my eyes, his size won't be for everyone. Colts pass rush was 29th in the NFL last year, despite Latu pick.

G Mekhi Becton, elite run blocker at G, I think he prices himself out of Eagles range. Colts want to win with run/defense. Blocking for Barkley to blocking for Taylor isn't a bad path to take.

S Geno Stone, expecting him to be 1-done in Cinci. I think he'd be an upgrade from Blackmon at FS.

15. Atlanta=Mike Green DE Marshall, I don't hold his school against him and I doubt the NFL will either. He had 16 sacks last year, and the Falcons had the 30th ranked pass rush.

16. Arizona=Luther Burden WR Missouri, Harrison/McBride show needs a 3rd guy. Wilson/Dortch aren't it. Some would argue Egbuka as we've already seen him and Harrison co-exist, but I think Burden is a better fit, as a player who is almost the exact opposite of Harrison, as a YAC monster.

DE Preston Smith, I think the Cards look to fix their broken front 7. Smith is a quality veteran I feel is unlikely to be retained.

DT Grady Jarrett, another expected release, I the Cards keep adding cheap vets to build the front 7.

G Ben Bredeson, younger and better than Evan Brown. Probably has benefitted from playing next to Wirfs.

DT DJ Jones, elite run stuffer, offers little as pass rusher.

LB Robert Spillane, excellent against run, weak in coverage. 158 tackles last season. Upgrades from Kyzir White.

17. Cincinnati=Colston Loveland TE Michigan, in the scenario where Higgins leaves, I HIGHLY doubt they go in with Iosivas or Gesicki as a top option. Bengals offense won't change being pass heavy.

WR Chris Godwin, here's a bit of a bold call. I think TB wants to keep Godwin, but I think Bengals offer him more (though still well less than Higgins gets) and use the middle of the field more than in previous years.

CB Mike Hilton, I think he's a priority re-sign as a defensive leader even with the DC change.

DT Javon Kinlaw, I think his gap shooting will be valued more in new Bengals D.

18. Seattle=Jahdae Barron CB Texas, he's flying up boards, and would give Seattle a nice young trio at CB.

19. Tampa Bay=Shemar Stewart DE Texas A&M, extremely versatile freak athlete at 6-5 290, yet production was average. A lot higher ceiling than Joe Tryon-Shoyinka ever had.

LB Alex Singleton, whether David is back or not (I think he's TB or retirement) another LB is needed. Singleton is a jack of all trades type likely to be cheap after release.

20. Denver=Ashton Jeanty RB Boise St, this really feels like a perfect fit. Jeanty is a vastly underrated receiving threat and feels like a guy Payton would LOVE. He should go higher, but its tough to find a fit given depth of the RB class.

TE Juwan Johnson, possibly the best FA TE out there, also has ties to Payton.

LB Kenneth Murray, expecting him to be released, I think he needs a better DC to unlock him, and Denver may have that. Its also possible he's just another better athlete than football player at LB.

S Talanoa Hufanga, SS is only major need in Broncos secondary. Hufanga is coming off back to back injury plagued years, but was elite in 2022, and is still only 26.

21. Pittsburgh=Benjamin Morrison CB Notre Dame, CB room is basically Joey Porter (who is overrated himself) and then scrubs. Only thing keeping Morrison out of the top-10 in my eyes is hip injury.

QB Kirk Cousins, I think they continue to discount shop at QB, and try to get a similar deal with Cousins as Wilson last season, where his previous team is the one paying him big money.

CB Kristian Fulton, always felt he was underrated in Tennessee, he had a big bounce back season in LAC. Still only 27.

WR Allen Lazard, not what Steelers fans are hoping for, but likely an upgrade from what they have behind Pickens. Fully expecting another day 2 pick as well.

 

[travdogg]

22. LA Chargers=Emeka Egbuka WR Ohio State, he looks like a future 100 catch guy to me. Some may argue he's too similar to McConkey, but I think that's silly, and a sign people are STILL underrating McConkey's deep ability. I don't think Johnston is being written off yet either as he took a step forward in 2024.

CB Carlton Davis, I think the Chargers offer more than Detroit does. Davis has bene more of a man CB, while the Chargers are more of a zone team, but I think that's irrelevant. Nothing about Davis game says he can't play zone and be an upgrade from Fulton/Samuel.

DE Khalil Mack, still one of the best edge guys in the NFL going into season 12. I think keeping him is priority #1.

DT Javon Hargrave, should be cheaper coming off triceps tear. He's a lot better than what they had a year ago.

C Bradley Bozeman, wanted to highlight him as he is a top run blocker and a bottom pass blocker. Whatever day 2 RB Chargers add (or maybe they stick with Dobbins?) will be happy he's back.

23. Green Bay=Nic Scourton DE Texas A&M, not as talented as Stewart but similar in that uspide>production, which is how GB tends to draft. Rashan Gary has been slowing a bit, and Van Ness has shown little to date.

CB DJ Reed, I think the Packers find a way to keep Jaire Alexander, and adding Reed makes a 2024 weakness into a strength.

C Ryan Kelly, not a typical Packers move, but Josh Myers was arguably the weak link of the OL, and a solid vet like Kelly could make the whole OL look better.

WR Keenan Allen, this feels like a perfect fit to me. Green Bay needs a guy who can rack up catches, and be the clear chain mover, as well as a veteran presence. Also, not sure Watson plays in 2025, and Doubs is a question mark too. Allen/Reed/Wicks(Melton?) could be week 1 starters.

24. Minnesota=Nick Emmanwori S South Carolina, we'll see if Bynum or Smith are back, but Emmanwori feels like a guy Brian Flores could do a ton with. He has LB size but isn't LB speed.

G Trey Smith, for too long the Vikings have had a really rough interior OL, probably dating back to Adrian Peterson. Smith would be a huge upgrade at RG.

CB Byron Murphy, has been great in Flores scheme and is re-sign priority #1 in my opinion.

RB Aaron Jones, played very well last season, and age likely keeps cost down. No reason not to re-sign him.

OL Coleman Shelton, could maybe make a push at LG/C while being a solid utility backup at worst.

25. Houston=Kenneth Grant DT Michigan, I know some fans will want WR or OL, but I think adding a solid presence in the middle of the DL is a better value here.

26. LA Rams=Shavon Revel CB East Carolina, outstanding size (Rams type) coming off a knee injury. Rams are team that doesn't mind potentially redshirting a high-end prospect, as HC/GM have complete job security.

OT Dan Moore, took a step forward under Arthur Smith, and has been extremely durable. I think he's better than Alaric Jackson or Joe Noteboom at LT.

WR Cooper Kupp, here's a hot take, I think they end up not finding anyone willing to take his contract, and instead of cutting him, just keep him for another season (I'm expecting similar in SF with Deebo) and hope for a bounce back.

LB Tyrel Dodson, one of the more underrated LBs in the NFL, is excellent on coverage, and would be a big upgrade for them, especially given 4 games against Kittle/McBride.

27. Baltimore=Josh Simmons OT Ohio State, Simmons might be my most underrated player in the class, without the knee injury, he's a top-10 pick in my opinion, and a better prospect (at T for sure) than Banks. So of course, that guy will fall to the Ravens, because someone seemingly does every year. I have him being Stanley's replacement, and probably an upgrade sooner than later.

OL Lucas Patrick, I just want to highlight a veteran starting OL going to the Ravens as a backup, because that's a thing that probably works out for them.

28. Detroit=Armand Membou OT Missouri, this is a BPA pick, with some eventual Decker replacement potential. Could potentially play G in the meantime.

G Joel Bitonio, fully expecting Browns to release him. Probably an upgrade at LG from Glasgow, who could move to the RG spot to replace Zeitler.

DL Denico Autry, anther expected release, gives the Lions some DL flexibility.

WR Amari Cooper, here's a surprise. I think Cooper does a little bit of ring chasing and takes a below expected deal. I think he's ok with being more of a #3 WR.

29. Washington=Josh Conerly OT Oregon, kind of a BPA pick, that also allows them to not be depending on Brandon Coleman at LT. I like Conerly despite not having his best day at the Senior Bowl. I think Washington can go BPA, as I expect them to be VERY active in FA.

DE Josh Sweat, another Eagle who I think cashes in after a big Super Bowl game. He's a lot younger than Fowler, and a lot better than Ferrell who are both FAs.

WR Davante Adams, total gut feel here, but I think adding a guy who can take over games like Adams can take Daniels to the next level, especially as it likely leads to more 1-1 coverage on McLaurin.

G Teven Jenkins, was a very good starter for the Bears who has had lots of durability issues. Huge upgrade at LG if healthy. Would be especially big for the running game.

S Jevon Holland, ideally the Dolphins keep him, but Washington can easily outbid them. I don't dislike Jeremy Chinn, but Holland is much better and 2 years younger.

CB Jourdan Lewis, is a much better slot CB than Noah Igbinoghene, and has Dan Quinn connection from Dallas.

30. Buffalo=Walter Nolan DT Mississippi, elite athlete who tore up Senior Bowl. Honestly a similar player to Ed Oliver. Bit of a BPA pick.

31. Kansas City=Jack Sawyer DE Ohio State, Karlaftis is solid, but they've gotten nothing from Anudike-Uzomah. Sawyer feels like a high-floor Spags type.

32. Philadelphia=Tyler Booker G Alabama, basically a 1-1 replacement for Becton. Eagles will likely be chasing some holes losing some contributors, but Super Bowl team will be mostly intact.

DE Bryce Huff, Not a FA move, but I want to highlight Huff as a guy who played great with the Jets and did little this season. I think he stays (it cost more to dump him) and essentially moves into Sweat's role.

DT Sheldon Rankins, solid vet I think goes ring chasing. Works as DT #3 behind Carter/Davis.

 

[JohnnyU]

I believe if Warren is gone before #14 the Colts will trade down for an extra 2nd, or take Loveland at #14 ahead of the Bengals. They could have an interest in Elijah Arroyo later in the draft.

Also, I can’t see Warren going to the Panthers at 8. They have other needs. Plus they took Sanders in the fourth round last year and they are high on him. I could however see the Jets taking him at 9.

Great job by the way.

 

[King of the Jungle]

This is beautiful, thank you for putting the time into it. Fun read in a slow offseason period.

 

[Boston]

Great overall effort...I am very comfortable putting you in charge of the Pats free agency...if they do what you list that would be amazing and I could not agree more that prioritizing weapons and protection for Maye is the name of the game this offseason ...I do think if they accomplished that much in FA and Sanders was still on the board, they would be in a prime spot to trade down with that pick and either go O-line, McMillan or even Warren (if they think he is that good) while adding more picks.

 

[Pip's Invitation]

Don’t underestimate Howie Roseman’s contract/cap wizardry. You have the Eagles losing all four of their top free agents. I think he manages to hold onto at least one, and I think it’s Baun.

They really like Mauro Ojono and I expect him to take Williams’ place as the #3 DT, so I can see them deciding not to spend major funds on that position in FA.

Pick #32 will either be used on BPA OL/DL or traded in some deal none of us see coming.

 

[Hankmoody]

QB Sam Darnold, this just makes so much sense. Darnold is a natural fit in a Chip Kelly offense, and will have a decent OL, and a few solid weapons. I think the Vikings could tag/trade, but I think they are pretty happy going with JJ.

I'm not so sure about this one. Kelly has a lot of read option in his offense, I don't see Darnold being the run threat needed to keep the D honest to free up the RB.

 

[King of the Jungle]

QB Sam Darnold, this just makes so much sense. Darnold is a natural fit in a Chip Kelly offense, and will have a decent OL, and a few solid weapons. I think the Vikings could tag/trade, but I think they are pretty happy going with JJ.

I'm not so sure about this one. Kelly has a lot of read option in his offense, I don't see Darnold being the run threat needed to keep the D honest to free up the RB.

Darnold is probably a greater threat than Will Howard on the ground and it worked out fairly well at Ohio St anyway.

Edit: Will Howard’s 40 time is projected to match Darnolds at 4.85.

 

[Tau837]

WR Tee Higgins, I think its 50-50 he stays in Cincinnati, but if he leaves, this is 99.9% his destination. I don't know if he's truly a #1 WR, but he'll easily be the best Pats WR since at least Edelman.

You think Higgins would choose Maye and NE over Herbert and LA? I'm skeptical, unless NE is willing to pay a non-trivial premium.

Higgins is a perfect match for what the Chargers need, and I am hoping they will go after him aggressively.

22. LA Chargers=Emeka Egbuka, he looks like a future 100 catch guy to me. Some may argue he's too similar to McConkey, but I think that's silly, and a sign people are STILL underrating McConkey's deep ability. I don't think Johnston is being written off yet either as he took a step forward in 2024.

CB Carlton Davis, I think the Chargers offer more than Detroit does. Davis has bene more of a man CB, while the Chargers are more of a zone team, but I think that's irrelevant. Nothing about Davis game says he can't play zone and be an upgrade from Fulton/Samuel.

DE Khalil Mack, still one of the best edge guys in the NFL going into season 12. I think keeping him is priority #1.

DT Javon Hargrave, should be cheaper coming off triceps tear. He's a lot better than what they had a year ago.

C Bradley Bozeman, wanted to highlight him as he is a top run blocker and a bottom pass blocker. Whatever day 2 RB Chargers add (or maybe they stick with Dobbins?) will be happy he's back.

I will be surprised if the Chargers use a first round pick on WR. They need a WR 1/2 to pair with McConkey, but I think they will solve it in free agency. They have too many needs that require a premium draft pick in this draft to fill, at least to get an immediate starter.

They need:

• Edge (assuming Bosa is gone and Mack is re-signed), IDL, TE1, and outside CB1. All of these could be addressed effectively in the first round.
• They also need to upgrade at least one starting guard, and they need a center of the future, though I agree they should bring Bozeman back also. The free agent class is strong at guard but weak at center, at least for centers who fit Roman's scheme.
• They also need a RB 1/2 to pair with Dobbins, if they re-sign him. If they don't re-sign him, they need 2 RBs including a legit RB1.

Fortunately, once they let Bosa, G/T Pipkins, and probably RB Edwards go, they will have nearly $100M in cap space to work with. This is unprecedented in Chargers history, to have significant cap space like this. They have a lot of internal free agents to re-sign, and I expect that. But they also have space to sign multiple premium free agents.

I gave a lot of detailed thoughts on this here:

• 2025 Roster Thoughts - Entering Offseason
• 2025 Roster Thoughts - Free Agents

That scenario I laid out is one of probably thousands of possibilities. You and I agree on Bozeman and Mack, and I agree Davis and Hargrave could definitely land with the Chargers. So it is mainly just the first round pick I disagree on.

 

[Ilov80s]

28. Detroit=Armand Membou OT Missouri, this is a BPA pick, with some eventual Decker replacement potential. Could potentially play G in the meantime.

G Joel Bitonio, fully expecting Browns to release him. Probably an upgrade at LG from Glasgow, who could move to the RG spot to replace Zeitler.

DL Denico Autry, anther expected release, gives the Lions some DL flexibility.

Don't mind investing in the OL again but Jack Sawyer and Walter Nolan make a lot of sense too.

 

[Mitchie]

WR Tee Higgins, I think its 50-50 he stays in Cincinnati, but if he leaves, this is 99.9% his destination. I don't know if he's truly a #1 WR, but he'll easily be the best Pats WR since at least Edelman.

You think Higgins would choose Maye and NE over Herbert and LA? I'm skeptical, unless NE is willing to pay a non-trivial premium.

Higgins is a perfect match for what the Chargers need, and I am hoping they will go after him aggressively.

I do, think Maye is a draw, and NE has cap space to improve their roster, maybe they will have to pay more but not a lot more and think they are willing to do it.

 

[Tau837]

WR Tee Higgins, I think its 50-50 he stays in Cincinnati, but if he leaves, this is 99.9% his destination. I don't know if he's truly a #1 WR, but he'll easily be the best Pats WR since at least Edelman.

You think Higgins would choose Maye and NE over Herbert and LA? I'm skeptical, unless NE is willing to pay a non-trivial premium.

Higgins is a perfect match for what the Chargers need, and I am hoping they will go after him aggressively.

I do, think Maye is a draw, and NE has cap space to improve their roster, maybe they will have to pay more but not a lot more and think they are willing to do it.

Do you think Maye > Herbert as a draw? Do you think NE roster > LAC roster entering 2025 season? I think no to both.

Another way to frame that second question: Do you think it is more likely LAC or NE will get into true Super Bowl contender status sooner? IMO the answer is obviously LAC.

Do you think Vrabel > Harbaugh as a draw? That one is close, but I think edge to Harbaugh for offensive players. That said, any given player could prefer either one.

Living in LA > NE for most people, even if only due to the weather.

Add it all up, IMO LAC > NE for Higgins.

As for cap space, LAC will have plenty, and would have no problem signing Higgins to a $30M/year contract.

 

[Mitchie]

WR Tee Higgins, I think its 50-50 he stays in Cincinnati, but if he leaves, this is 99.9% his destination. I don't know if he's truly a #1 WR, but he'll easily be the best Pats WR since at least Edelman.

You think Higgins would choose Maye and NE over Herbert and LA? I'm skeptical, unless NE is willing to pay a non-trivial premium.

Higgins is a perfect match for what the Chargers need, and I am hoping they will go after him aggressively.

I do, think Maye is a draw, and NE has cap space to improve their roster, maybe they will have to pay more but not a lot more and think they are willing to do it.

Do you think Maye > Herbert as a draw? Do you think NE roster > LAC roster entering 2025 season? I think no to both.

Another way to frame that second question: Do you think it is more likely LAC or NE will get into true Super Bowl contender status sooner? IMO the answer is obviously LAC.

Do you think Vrabel > Harbaugh as a draw? That one is close, but I think edge to Harbaugh for offensive players. That said, any given player could prefer either one.

Living in LA > NE for most people, even if only due to the weather.

Add it all up, IMO LAC > NE for Higgins.

As for cap space, LAC will have plenty, and would have no problem signing Higgins to a $30M/year contract.

I think NE will pay a bit more at the end of the day, and is enough of a draw to get it done. I'm not saying there's not appeal to LAC or that it's not possible he goes there, just think more likely it's NE. (Higgins also went to Michigan and played in Cincy so not necessarily would prefer to live in LA over NE).

 

[travdogg]

QB Sam Darnold, this just makes so much sense. Darnold is a natural fit in a Chip Kelly offense, and will have a decent OL, and a few solid weapons. I think the Vikings could tag/trade, but I think they are pretty happy going with JJ.

I'm not so sure about this one. Kelly has a lot of read option in his offense, I don't see Darnold being the run threat needed to keep the D honest to free up the RB.

Darnold is probably a greater threat than Will Howard on the ground and it worked out fairly well at Ohio St anyway.

Edit: Will Howard’s 40 time is projected to match Darnolds at 4.85.

I would add to that, the QB who was most effective in Chip Kelly's offense was Nick Foles.

 

[Boston]

WR Tee Higgins, I think its 50-50 he stays in Cincinnati, but if he leaves, this is 99.9% his destination. I don't know if he's truly a #1 WR, but he'll easily be the best Pats WR since at least Edelman.

You think Higgins would choose Maye and NE over Herbert and LA? I'm skeptical, unless NE is willing to pay a non-trivial premium.

Higgins is a perfect match for what the Chargers need, and I am hoping they will go after him aggressively.

I do, think Maye is a draw, and NE has cap space to improve their roster, maybe they will have to pay more but not a lot more and think they are willing to do it.

Do you think Maye > Herbert as a draw? Do you think NE roster > LAC roster entering 2025 season? I think no to both.

Another way to frame that second question: Do you think it is more likely LAC or NE will get into true Super Bowl contender status sooner? IMO the answer is obviously LAC.

Do you think Vrabel > Harbaugh as a draw? That one is close, but I think edge to Harbaugh for offensive players. That said, any given player could prefer either one.

Living in LA > NE for most people, even if only due to the weather.

Add it all up, IMO LAC > NE for Higgins.

As for cap space, LAC will have plenty, and would have no problem signing Higgins to a $30M/year contract.

I think NE will pay a bit more at the end of the day, and is enough of a draw to get it done. I'm not saying there's not appeal to LAC or that it's not possible he goes there, just think more likely it's NE. (Higgins also went to Michigan and played in Cincy so not necessarily would prefer to live in LA over NE).

He went to Clemson.

 

[travdogg]

WR Tee Higgins, I think its 50-50 he stays in Cincinnati, but if he leaves, this is 99.9% his destination. I don't know if he's truly a #1 WR, but he'll easily be the best Pats WR since at least Edelman.

You think Higgins would choose Maye and NE over Herbert and LA? I'm skeptical, unless NE is willing to pay a non-trivial premium.

Higgins is a perfect match for what the Chargers need, and I am hoping they will go after him aggressively.

22. LA Chargers=Emeka Egbuka, he looks like a future 100 catch guy to me. Some may argue he's too similar to McConkey, but I think that's silly, and a sign people are STILL underrating McConkey's deep ability. I don't think Johnston is being written off yet either as he took a step forward in 2024.

CB Carlton Davis, I think the Chargers offer more than Detroit does. Davis has bene more of a man CB, while the Chargers are more of a zone team, but I think that's irrelevant. Nothing about Davis game says he can't play zone and be an upgrade from Fulton/Samuel.

DE Khalil Mack, still one of the best edge guys in the NFL going into season 12. I think keeping him is priority #1.

DT Javon Hargrave, should be cheaper coming off triceps tear. He's a lot better than what they had a year ago.

C Bradley Bozeman, wanted to highlight him as he is a top run blocker and a bottom pass blocker. Whatever day 2 RB Chargers add (or maybe they stick with Dobbins?) will be happy he's back.

I will be surprised if the Chargers use a first round pick on WR. They need a WR 1/2 to pair with McConkey, but I think they will solve it in free agency. They have too many needs that require a premium draft pick in this draft to fill, at least to get an immediate starter.

They need:

• Edge (assuming Bosa is gone and Mack is re-signed), IDL, TE1, and outside CB1. All of these could be addressed effectively in the first round.
• They also need to upgrade at least one starting guard, and they need a center of the future, though I agree they should bring Bozeman back also. The free agent class is strong at guard but weak at center, at least for centers who fit Roman's scheme.
• They also need a RB 1/2 to pair with Dobbins, if they re-sign him. If they don't re-sign him, they need 2 RBs including a legit RB1.

Fortunately, once they let Bosa, G/T Pipkins, and probably RB Edwards go, they will have nearly $100M in cap space to work with. This is unprecedented in Chargers history, to have significant cap space like this. They have a lot of internal free agents to re-sign, and I expect that. But they also have space to sign multiple premium free agents.

I gave a lot of detailed thoughts on this here:

• 2025 Roster Thoughts - Entering Offseason
• 2025 Roster Thoughts - Free Agents

That scenario I laid out is one of probably thousands of possibilities. You and I agree on Bozeman and Mack, and I agree Davis and Hargrave could definitely land with the Chargers. So it is mainly just the first round pick I disagree on.

I could be wrong, but I'm not sure Bosa is gone. I think there could be some restructuring to play with there. I think Bosa (or Bosa's agent) will realize his market is nowhere near what it was 2-3 years ago now that's he's gonna be 30, I don't know that a better deal/situation exists for him.

I don't see TE1 as a hole at all. I think Will Dissly is an above average NFL starting TE. He's not explosive, but he's good at everything, hands, routes, blocking.

I'll be very curious how they view Dobbins. If they re-signed him, and added say a 3rd round guy, I wouldn't be surprised. If they let him walk, and added a guy in round 2, or round 1 if Jeanty slipped, I wouldn't be surprised. One name I'm also curious about (in general, but especially in a Roman offense) is Nick Chubb. He'll be cheap, he'll be another year removed from his knee injury, and at this time 2 years ago, he was arguably the best runner in the NFL. He feels like a no-risk, high reward option, and LA pulled a somewhat similar move with Dobbins a year ago.

I don't like Maye over Herbert, but (and I'm certain we've talked about this in other threads) I don't see the Chargers paying Higgins elite #1 WR money, when he's not that level of player, and they already have a WR who is probably better than he is. NE is desperate, the Chargers aren't. I think the offers could certainly be 5 million a year apart, and the guarantees and length even larger. I'd also add, I think if QB quality is a primary driver of where Higgins ends up, then he's not leaving Cincinnati.

 

[Ray_T]

4. New England= OL Will Campbell LSU, I personally think Campbell can absolutely play LT, but his versatility will surely be loved by Vrabel/McDaniels. Could see him anywhere on the OL. I think developing Maye is priority #1, and protection>weapons feels like where the staff will fall, though I expect both to be addressed in a VERY active FA for NE.

OT Ronnie Stanley, I think the Ravens are forced to let him walk, as his contract will be too much for them. He's a quality LT when healthy, that health has been an issue though.

OT Cornelius Lucas, possible he stays in Washington, but I don't think he'll be a priority for them. I think he likely plays RT for NE.

Hey I like the post as a whole and I like this too, but I'd like to point out the Giants still need O line help so it is possible that some or all of these players end up on the giants (assuming they are smart enough to pursue them)

that doesnt make this post incorrect. but if the Giants jump in and pay via money or draft capital, that may spoil this.

 

[travdogg]

Don’t underestimate Howie Roseman’s contract/cap wizardry. You have the Eagles losing all four of their top free agents. I think he manages to hold onto at least one, and I think it’s Baun.

They really like Mauro Ojono and I expect him to take Williams’ place as the #3 DT, so I can see them deciding not to spend major funds on that position in FA.

Pick #32 will either be used on BPA OL/DL or traded in some deal none of us see coming.

Baun would be the most important (and also most difficult) one to keep in my opinion. I think Becton would be the easiest to keep, as I think many teams will be wary of his Jets run/durability.

I don't consider Rankins to be major funds. I like Ojomo as well, but I think they'll want to stay 4 deep, as Davis isn't really a full-time guy, and Carter is a knucklehead who is a suspension threat at any time.

I do think LB/DE will be a target as well at some point (day 2 perhaps?) and it wouldn't blow my mind if Roseman pulled off some mega-deal for some pass rusher. Though they'd likely have to clear more cap space for that. A part of me wonders if a guy like Dallas Goedert could be a cap casualty if they re-sign some FAs or make a big deal, as they have so many offensive guys signed long term (Hurts, Barkley, AJ, Smith, Mailata, Johnson, Dickerson) that Goedert could be numbers gamed, even though he's clearly a high-end starter.

 

[travdogg]

4. New England= OL Will Campbell LSU, I personally think Campbell can absolutely play LT, but his versatility will surely be loved by Vrabel/McDaniels. Could see him anywhere on the OL. I think developing Maye is priority #1, and protection>weapons feels like where the staff will fall, though I expect both to be addressed in a VERY active FA for NE.

OT Ronnie Stanley, I think the Ravens are forced to let him walk, as his contract will be too much for them. He's a quality LT when healthy, that health has been an issue though.

OT Cornelius Lucas, possible he stays in Washington, but I don't think he'll be a priority for them. I think he likely plays RT for NE.

Hey I like the post as a whole and I like this too, but I'd like to point out the Giants still need O line help so it is possible that some or all of these players end up on the giants (assuming they are smart enough to pursue them)

that doesnt make this post incorrect. but if the Giants jump in and pay via money or draft capital, that may spoil this.

I could see Lucas, but the other 2 would greatly surprise me. I don't see Stanley signing anywhere he's not playing LT, and I don't see NYG moving Andrew Thomas, and I can't see taking Campbell over Hunter.

To a lesser extent, I think pretty much any close money issues would favor NE over NYG. I think NYG are viewed as a sinking ship around the league, with lame ducks at HC/GM, where NE, I think, has a renewed sense of upward momentum with Vrabel/Maye.

 

[travdogg]

I believe if Warren is gone before #14 the Colts will trade down for an extra 2nd, or take Loveland at #14 ahead of the Bengals. They could have an interest in Elijah Arroyo later in the draft.

Also, I can’t see Warren going to the Panthers at 8. They have other needs. Plus they took Sanders in the fourth round last year and they are high on him. I could however see the Jets taking him at 9.

Great job by the way.

I don't disagree with TE for Indy, but I do disagree on how high Carolina is on Sanders. I think he's viewed as a decent prospect, but Warren could be an 80+ catch foundational piece. I'm not sure Carolina's needs are that many. They just need high-end talents, actual holes are somewhat few considering where they pick. I thought about Malaki Starks for them, but felt helping Young made more sense than adding to the defense.

Arroyo, Gunnar Helm, Harold Fannin, and Mason Taylor are all options in round 3 I think for Indy.

 

[Pip's Invitation]

Don’t underestimate Howie Roseman’s contract/cap wizardry. You have the Eagles losing all four of their top free agents. I think he manages to hold onto at least one, and I think it’s Baun.

They really like Mauro Ojono and I expect him to take Williams’ place as the #3 DT, so I can see them deciding not to spend major funds on that position in FA.

Pick #32 will either be used on BPA OL/DL or traded in some deal none of us see coming.

Baun would be the most important (and also most difficult) one to keep in my opinion. I think Becton would be the easiest to keep, as I think many teams will be wary of his Jets run/durability.

I don't consider Rankins to be major funds. I like Ojomo as well, but I think they'll want to stay 4 deep, as Davis isn't really a full-time guy, and Carter is a knucklehead who is a suspension threat at any time.

I do think LB/DE will be a target as well at some point (day 2 perhaps?) and it wouldn't blow my mind if Roseman pulled off some mega-deal for some pass rusher. Though they'd likely have to clear more cap space for that. A part of me wonders if a guy like Dallas Goedert could be a cap casualty if they re-sign some FAs or make a big deal, as they have so many offensive guys signed long term (Hurts, Barkley, AJ, Smith, Mailata, Johnson, Dickerson) that Goedert could be numbers gamed, even though he's clearly a high-end starter.

If Roseman takes a TE in the 1st or 2nd, that's a signal they'll be moving on from Goedert not long from now. Otherwise, there's no succession plan in place. Calcaterra is a good pass-catcher but a liability as a blocker. He's not the next TE1 on this team.

 

[Deamon]

You know a lot about football man.

 

[Mitchie]

WR Tee Higgins, I think its 50-50 he stays in Cincinnati, but if he leaves, this is 99.9% his destination. I don't know if he's truly a #1 WR, but he'll easily be the best Pats WR since at least Edelman.

You think Higgins would choose Maye and NE over Herbert and LA? I'm skeptical, unless NE is willing to pay a non-trivial premium.

Higgins is a perfect match for what the Chargers need, and I am hoping they will go after him aggressively.

I do, think Maye is a draw, and NE has cap space to improve their roster, maybe they will have to pay more but not a lot more and think they are willing to do it.

Do you think Maye > Herbert as a draw? Do you think NE roster > LAC roster entering 2025 season? I think no to both.

Another way to frame that second question: Do you think it is more likely LAC or NE will get into true Super Bowl contender status sooner? IMO the answer is obviously LAC.

Do you think Vrabel > Harbaugh as a draw? That one is close, but I think edge to Harbaugh for offensive players. That said, any given player could prefer either one.

Living in LA > NE for most people, even if only due to the weather.

Add it all up, IMO LAC > NE for Higgins.

As for cap space, LAC will have plenty, and would have no problem signing Higgins to a $30M/year contract.

I think NE will pay a bit more at the end of the day, and is enough of a draw to get it done. I'm not saying there's not appeal to LAC or that it's not possible he goes there, just think more likely it's NE. (Higgins also went to Michigan and played in Cincy so not necessarily would prefer to live in LA over NE).

He went to Clemson.

Ah ok well thanks, (although don't think that changes the point much)

 

[Tau837]

WR Tee Higgins, I think its 50-50 he stays in Cincinnati, but if he leaves, this is 99.9% his destination. I don't know if he's truly a #1 WR, but he'll easily be the best Pats WR since at least Edelman.

You think Higgins would choose Maye and NE over Herbert and LA? I'm skeptical, unless NE is willing to pay a non-trivial premium.

Higgins is a perfect match for what the Chargers need, and I am hoping they will go after him aggressively.

I do, think Maye is a draw, and NE has cap space to improve their roster, maybe they will have to pay more but not a lot more and think they are willing to do it.

Do you think Maye > Herbert as a draw? Do you think NE roster > LAC roster entering 2025 season? I think no to both.

Another way to frame that second question: Do you think it is more likely LAC or NE will get into true Super Bowl contender status sooner? IMO the answer is obviously LAC.

Do you think Vrabel > Harbaugh as a draw? That one is close, but I think edge to Harbaugh for offensive players. That said, any given player could prefer either one.

Living in LA > NE for most people, even if only due to the weather.

Add it all up, IMO LAC > NE for Higgins.

As for cap space, LAC will have plenty, and would have no problem signing Higgins to a $30M/year contract.

I think NE will pay a bit more at the end of the day, and is enough of a draw to get it done. I'm not saying there's not appeal to LAC or that it's not possible he goes there, just think more likely it's NE. (Higgins also went to Michigan and played in Cincy so not necessarily would prefer to live in LA over NE).

He went to Clemson.

Ah ok well thanks, (although don't think that changes the point much)

It actually does… had he gone to Michigan, he would have played for Harbaugh. The fact that he didn’t better supports the idea that he would prefer NE over LAC.

 

[Uruk-Hai]

27. Baltimore=Josh Simmons OT Ohio State, Simmons might be my most underrated player in the class, without the knee injury, he's a top-10 pick in my opinion, and a better prospect (at T for sure) than Banks. So of course, that guy will fall to the Ravens, because someone seemingly does every year. I have him being Stanley's replacement, and probably an upgrade sooner than later.

OL Lucas Patrick, I just want to highlight a veteran starting OL going to the Ravens as a backup, because that's a thing that probably works out for them.

I know less than nothing about the prospects in the draft, but I like the position pick. Someone's gonna throw a boatload of money at Stanley. He's gone. The OL walking that worries me more is Mekari, who can play all five spots well.

 

[Tau837]

27. Baltimore=Josh Simmons OT Ohio State, Simmons might be my most underrated player in the class, without the knee injury, he's a top-10 pick in my opinion, and a better prospect (at T for sure) than Banks. So of course, that guy will fall to the Ravens, because someone seemingly does every year. I have him being Stanley's replacement, and probably an upgrade sooner than later.

OL Lucas Patrick, I just want to highlight a veteran starting OL going to the Ravens as a backup, because that's a thing that probably works out for them.

I know less than nothing about the prospects in the draft, but I like the position pick. Someone's gonna throw a boatload of money at Stanley. He's gone. The OL walking that worries me more is Mekari, who can play all five spots well.

I think he is a Chargers target if he hits the market.

 

[Uruk-Hai]

27. Baltimore=Josh Simmons OT Ohio State, Simmons might be my most underrated player in the class, without the knee injury, he's a top-10 pick in my opinion, and a better prospect (at T for sure) than Banks. So of course, that guy will fall to the Ravens, because someone seemingly does every year. I have him being Stanley's replacement, and probably an upgrade sooner than later.

OL Lucas Patrick, I just want to highlight a veteran starting OL going to the Ravens as a backup, because that's a thing that probably works out for them.

I know less than nothing about the prospects in the draft, but I like the position pick. Someone's gonna throw a boatload of money at Stanley. He's gone. The OL walking that worries me more is Mekari, who can play all five spots well.

I think he is a Chargers target if he hits the market.

Stanley? He'd fit well there. From all accounts, a good leader and teammate. Health and age are the biggest issues with him. His ability when healthy has slipped a bit, but he's still a good player. And I'm sure the Head Coach has some inside information on him.

 

[ZADO]

Gotta give you MAD PROPS TDogg for the time , energy and research you put into this ...well done sir

 

[JohnnyU]

FntasyPros

Dynasty Draft Rankings | Running Backs to Target & Avoid and SLEEPERS (2025 Fantasy Football)​

Early they talk about Jeanty vs top end vet RBs. They do a lot of mixing in the rookies discussion more after the halfway point, with more vet comparisaons and discussion.

- YouTube

Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube.

www.youtube.com

 

[travdogg]

27. Baltimore=Josh Simmons OT Ohio State, Simmons might be my most underrated player in the class, without the knee injury, he's a top-10 pick in my opinion, and a better prospect (at T for sure) than Banks. So of course, that guy will fall to the Ravens, because someone seemingly does every year. I have him being Stanley's replacement, and probably an upgrade sooner than later.

OL Lucas Patrick, I just want to highlight a veteran starting OL going to the Ravens as a backup, because that's a thing that probably works out for them.

I know less than nothing about the prospects in the draft, but I like the position pick. Someone's gonna throw a boatload of money at Stanley. He's gone. The OL walking that worries me more is Mekari, who can play all five spots well.

I think he is a Chargers target if he hits the market.

Stanley? He'd fit well there. From all accounts, a good leader and teammate. Health and age are the biggest issues with him. His ability when healthy has slipped a bit, but he's still a good player. And I'm sure the Head Coach has some inside information on him.

I think he meant Mekari. Stanley to LA seems like an unlikely fit, unless Slater moved to G, which seems highly unlikely, as he's a better T than Stanley is.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Great thread, I am reposting what I wrote about Miami the other day in another thread, perfect spot to drop this and share

Miami Dolphins

-Head Coach Mike McDaniel - Year 4 in 2025, zero Playoff victories, last season he had his worst record (8-9) and should be under close scrutiny for the '25 season, under contract thru '28
The OC is Frank Smith but I doubt it matters, MM does most of the play calling and game planning himself. Weaver is the DC and will be entering Year 2, I'll discuss the Defense in more detail ahead.

QB - Tua Tags is the starter in 2025 and likely 2026 so you are likely to see the QB1 spot go down for any numerous reasons but Tua sustained another major concussion this year and you do wonder what the Dolphins might be thinking about. Yeah they inked him to 4yr/$210M+ but there are ways for them to shorten this up. I could see a restructure almost immediately to dissolve the auto '26 salary. Tua has no guaranteed money in 2026 and it's like $50M against the cap vs save $40M parting ways, we'll see what happens.

Miami would be wise to draft a back up QB somewhere after the 1st or 2nd round, they need to have a back up that's cheap and can also progress and learn and perhaps be there in case Tua gets injured again which in all likelihood is bound to happen when you read his medical chart and previous injuries.

RB - This is one of Miami's strengths. They have Achane and Wright, they don't need to spend a penny more on this position except maybe a late round pick or UDFA, even Mostert might need to be cut.

WR - Hill suddenly wants to stay and cash his $30M per season, remarkable. Waddle is an overpaid WR2 that gets WR1 hype. He has had B2B subpar seasons and yet everyone is still red hot on this guy. Miami is top heavy at WR and because they pay the combo about $55M+ and then you add Tua at $50M, Phins are not going to be adding a lot at WR. Plus they have a rookie from last season, Malik Washington that they want to bring along and hopefully turn into their WR3. Injuries can bring this unit down quickly some infused talent at WR4/5/6 would be nice but a luxury this team cannot entertain

TE - Smith is under contract but Miami might want to extend him further. He should not be Miami's lead receiver most weeks but he's open a lot with such speed at receiver around him. Smythe is going to be cut and I could see Miami going Tight End in the Draft if they can add some picks and find something in the 2nd-3rd.

OL - Armstead and Jackson are set at Tackle for now, Paul was drafted last season and that's your trio right now. Nobody is taking Armstead's job soI say he stays for now. No guaranteed money and his salary is actually decent at around $12-$15M right now. Jackson was not having a great season when he went down last year, Tua's blind side is this Right Tackle spot.

Where Miami needs help is inside at both the LG and RG spot. Brewer is the starting Center and is undersized but ranks fairly high on PFF.
Miami is likely going to snag at least 1 OL in the 1st-2nd Round of the NFL Draft, they could possible fill the Guard spots like most normal teams in the 4th-6th rounds but it's the Phins...
Miami does not have the cap space to go out and do a ton trying to fill their holes. It would be wise if they tried to plug a couple of big holes on both sides of the Lines and do it thru the Draft

Edge: Chop was drafted in the 1st, mix of good and bad, hoping to see some more improvement in Year 2. Chubb is likely to get cut after missing all of 2024, at best a restructure. Phillips coming back from another injury. Miami is a candidate to take an Edge rusher in the Draft, most teams are. It's not the most pressing need but it wouldn't hurt to add something there

IDL - Miami needs to try and invest thru the Draft. There are some very good Defensive Tackles that Miami can look at. They won't be sexy picks or get a lot more pressure on the QB but it will plug up and stop teams on short yardage to force more punts and get the offense on the field more often.

LBs - Brooks is going to be released, Miami will try and address 1 LB position thru free agency after they free up some cap space in the coming weeks.

DBs -Ramsey and Fuller will return and start at both corner spots. Miami will sign or put the franchise tag on Holland, they can't afford to open holes in the Secondary. Miami has some other DBs including Storm Duck and I feel like the Phins are above average in the Secondary overall, a little more help from the Edge rushers and Miami will appear better at stopping the pass.

Overall: Miami has great weapons at the skill positions so logic would tell you their biggest needs are along their OL
They should want to build the strongest OL possible to protect Tua and exploit a couple RBs/WRs
Why it has taken them this long to figure it out is a mystery and I'm still not convinced they will do the right thing, more likely they just keep applying band aids

Biggest needs: LG/RG, IDL/NT, LB/EDGE

Update: They released Fuller which is a shame but I think it signals they want to extend Holland and now they have a hole at a starting Corner spot

 

[JohnnyU]

Great thread, I am reposting what I wrote about Miami the other day in another thread, perfect spot to drop this and share

Miami Dolphins

-Head Coach Mike McDaniel - Year 4 in 2025, zero Playoff victories, last season he had his worst record (8-9) and should be under close scrutiny for the '25 season, under contract thru '28
The OC is Frank Smith but I doubt it matters, MM does most of the play calling and game planning himself. Weaver is the DC and will be entering Year 2, I'll discuss the Defense in more detail ahead.

QB - Tua Tags is the starter in 2025 and likely 2026 so you are likely to see the QB1 spot go down for any numerous reasons but Tua sustained another major concussion this year and you do wonder what the Dolphins might be thinking about. Yeah they inked him to 4yr/$210M+ but there are ways for them to shorten this up. I could see a restructure almost immediately to dissolve the auto '26 salary. Tua has no guaranteed money in 2026 and it's like $50M against the cap vs save $40M parting ways, we'll see what happens.

Miami would be wise to draft a back up QB somewhere after the 1st or 2nd round, they need to have a back up that's cheap and can also progress and learn and perhaps be there in case Tua gets injured again which in all likelihood is bound to happen when you read his medical chart and previous injuries.

RB - This is one of Miami's strengths. They have Achane and Wright, they don't need to spend a penny more on this position except maybe a late round pick or UDFA, even Mostert might need to be cut.

WR - Hill suddenly wants to stay and cash his $30M per season, remarkable. Waddle is an overpaid WR2 that gets WR1 hype. He has had B2B subpar seasons and yet everyone is still red hot on this guy. Miami is top heavy at WR and because they pay the combo about $55M+ and then you add Tua at $50M, Phins are not going to be adding a lot at WR. Plus they have a rookie from last season, Malik Washington that they want to bring along and hopefully turn into their WR3. Injuries can bring this unit down quickly some infused talent at WR4/5/6 would be nice but a luxury this team cannot entertain

TE - Smith is under contract but Miami might want to extend him further. He should not be Miami's lead receiver most weeks but he's open a lot with such speed at receiver around him. Smythe is going to be cut and I could see Miami going Tight End in the Draft if they can add some picks and find something in the 2nd-3rd.

OL - Armstead and Jackson are set at Tackle for now, Paul was drafted last season and that's your trio right now. Nobody is taking Armstead's job soI say he stays for now. No guaranteed money and his salary is actually decent at around $12-$15M right now. Jackson was not having a great season when he went down last year, Tua's blind side is this Right Tackle spot.

Where Miami needs help is inside at both the LG and RG spot. Brewer is the starting Center and is undersized but ranks fairly high on PFF.
Miami is likely going to snag at least 1 OL in the 1st-2nd Round of the NFL Draft, they could possible fill the Guard spots like most normal teams in the 4th-6th rounds but it's the Phins...
Miami does not have the cap space to go out and do a ton trying to fill their holes. It would be wise if they tried to plug a couple of big holes on both sides of the Lines and do it thru the Draft

Edge: Chop was drafted in the 1st, mix of good and bad, hoping to see some more improvement in Year 2. Chubb is likely to get cut after missing all of 2024, at best a restructure. Phillips coming back from another injury. Miami is a candidate to take an Edge rusher in the Draft, most teams are. It's not the most pressing need but it wouldn't hurt to add something there

IDL - Miami needs to try and invest thru the Draft. There are some very good Defensive Tackles that Miami can look at. They won't be sexy picks or get a lot more pressure on the QB but it will plug up and stop teams on short yardage to force more punts and get the offense on the field more often.

LBs - Brooks is going to be released, Miami will try and address 1 LB position thru free agency after they free up some cap space in the coming weeks.

DBs -Ramsey and Fuller will return and start at both corner spots. Miami will sign or put the franchise tag on Holland, they can't afford to open holes in the Secondary. Miami has some other DBs including Storm Duck and I feel like the Phins are above average in the Secondary overall, a little more help from the Edge rushers and Miami will appear better at stopping the pass.

Overall: Miami has great weapons at the skill positions so logic would tell you their biggest needs are along their OL
They should want to build the strongest OL possible to protect Tua and exploit a couple RBs/WRs
Why it has taken them this long to figure it out is a mystery and I'm still not convinced they will do the right thing, more likely they just keep applying band aids

Biggest needs: LG/RG, IDL/NT, LB/EDGE

Update: They released Fuller which is a shame but I think it signals they want to extend Holland and now they have a hole at a starting Corner spot

Mostert was cut.

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

10. Chicago=Kelvin Banks OL Texas, I think Ben Johnson is coming in with an edict of building up the OL. I don't think the OL is anywhere near as bad as people think it was, it was league average, but I think modeling after the Lions is the goal. I think Banks profiles more as a G than a T but has elite upside. I could see him being not being a week 1 starter though.

OL Patrick Mekari, long-time utility piece for Baltimore, I think he gets paid more to do much of the same in Chicago.

G Kevin Zeitler, I think he follows Johnson from Detroit to play RG. At 35 might be in his last season.

C Drew Dalman, amazing run blocker the Falcons would love to keep, but they have major cap issues, and extending Drake London is probably a bigger priority.

WR Tyler Lockett, I think he's a cap casualty. I think Keenan Allen leaves for greener pastures (more on that later) but Lockett still gives them that veteran presence at #3 WR.

That is very much a Poles free agency right there. I like Dalman as the big splash pickup and it solidifies a huge need on the Bears IOL likely for years to come. Mekari and Zeitler wouldn't be day 1 free agent pickups, but fit the mold of guys Poles likes to pick up. While I'd prefer to have both Dalman and Trey Smith come to the Bears, I just don't see Poles spending 40mil/year on two offensive lineman even if they are young and proven studs. If the draft goes as you mocked, I'd be content with Banks at #10, knowing that the Bears would need to take a a DT and Edge with picks 39 and 41.

ETA - I like Locket as a versatile WR3, even if he did lose a step this season.

 

[JohnnyU]

10. Chicago=Kelvin Banks OL Texas, I think Ben Johnson is coming in with an edict of building up the OL. I don't think the OL is anywhere near as bad as people think it was, it was league average, but I think modeling after the Lions is the goal. I think Banks profiles more as a G than a T but has elite upside. I could see him being not being a week 1 starter though.

OL Patrick Mekari, long-time utility piece for Baltimore, I think he gets paid more to do much of the same in Chicago.

G Kevin Zeitler, I think he follows Johnson from Detroit to play RG. At 35 might be in his last season.

C Drew Dalman, amazing run blocker the Falcons would love to keep, but they have major cap issues, and extending Drake London is probably a bigger priority.

WR Tyler Lockett, I think he's a cap casualty. I think Keenan Allen leaves for greener pastures (more on that later) but Lockett still gives them that veteran presence at #3 WR.

That is very much a Poles free agency right there. I like Dalman as the big splash pickup and it solidifies a huge need on the Bears IOL likely for years to come. Mekari and Zeitler wouldn't be day 1 free agent pickups, but fit the mold of guys Poles likes to pick up. While I'd prefer to have both Dalman and Trey Smith come to the Bears, I just don't see Poles spending 40mil/year on two offensive lineman even if they are young and proven studs. If the draft goes as you mocked, I'd be content with Banks at #10, knowing that the Bears would need to take a a DT and Edge with picks 39 and 41.

ETA - I like Locket as a versatile WR3, even if he did lose a step this season.

I no longer see Tyler Locett as a viable fantasy WR. He's 32 and will be 33 shortly after the season starts and has steadily decreased his production the last 2 years. I think he's a 400-600 with a coule of TDs guy going forward. Not someone I would target.

 

[Tau837]

27. Baltimore=Josh Simmons OT Ohio State, Simmons might be my most underrated player in the class, without the knee injury, he's a top-10 pick in my opinion, and a better prospect (at T for sure) than Banks. So of course, that guy will fall to the Ravens, because someone seemingly does every year. I have him being Stanley's replacement, and probably an upgrade sooner than later.

OL Lucas Patrick, I just want to highlight a veteran starting OL going to the Ravens as a backup, because that's a thing that probably works out for them.

I know less than nothing about the prospects in the draft, but I like the position pick. Someone's gonna throw a boatload of money at Stanley. He's gone. The OL walking that worries me more is Mekari, who can play all five spots well.

I think he is a Chargers target if he hits the market.

Stanley? He'd fit well there. From all accounts, a good leader and teammate. Health and age are the biggest issues with him. His ability when healthy has slipped a bit, but he's still a good player. And I'm sure the Head Coach has some inside information on him.

No, Mekari.

 

[Uruk-Hai]

27. Baltimore=Josh Simmons OT Ohio State, Simmons might be my most underrated player in the class, without the knee injury, he's a top-10 pick in my opinion, and a better prospect (at T for sure) than Banks. So of course, that guy will fall to the Ravens, because someone seemingly does every year. I have him being Stanley's replacement, and probably an upgrade sooner than later.

OL Lucas Patrick, I just want to highlight a veteran starting OL going to the Ravens as a backup, because that's a thing that probably works out for them.

I know less than nothing about the prospects in the draft, but I like the position pick. Someone's gonna throw a boatload of money at Stanley. He's gone. The OL walking that worries me more is Mekari, who can play all five spots well.

I think he is a Chargers target if he hits the market.

Stanley? He'd fit well there. From all accounts, a good leader and teammate. Health and age are the biggest issues with him. His ability when healthy has slipped a bit, but he's still a good player. And I'm sure the Head Coach has some inside information on him.

No, Mekari.

You can't have him I'm giving you Stanley!

 

[Snotbubbles]

Don’t underestimate Howie Roseman’s contract/cap wizardry. You have the Eagles losing all four of their top free agents. I think he manages to hold onto at least one, and I think it’s Baun.

They really like Mauro Ojono and I expect him to take Williams’ place as the #3 DT, so I can see them deciding not to spend major funds on that position in FA.

Pick #32 will either be used on BPA OL/DL or traded in some deal none of us see coming.

Baun would be the most important (and also most difficult) one to keep in my opinion. I think Becton would be the easiest to keep, as I think many teams will be wary of his Jets run/durability.

I don't consider Rankins to be major funds. I like Ojomo as well, but I think they'll want to stay 4 deep, as Davis isn't really a full-time guy, and Carter is a knucklehead who is a suspension threat at any time.

I do think LB/DE will be a target as well at some point (day 2 perhaps?) and it wouldn't blow my mind if Roseman pulled off some mega-deal for some pass rusher. Though they'd likely have to clear more cap space for that. A part of me wonders if a guy like Dallas Goedert could be a cap casualty if they re-sign some FAs or make a big deal, as they have so many offensive guys signed long term (Hurts, Barkley, AJ, Smith, Mailata, Johnson, Dickerson) that Goedert could be numbers gamed, even though he's clearly a high-end starter.

The Eagles really have no need to spend money on Becton. They drafted Steen who was battling with Becton for the starting spot in camp. Steen played fine when he was inserted in the lineup due to injuries.

Williams and Sweat are as good as gone. They'll draft defensive line early in the draft. I'd put money on their #1 pick being an edge rusher (unless I hope Loveland drops).

 

[travdogg]

10. Chicago=Kelvin Banks OL Texas, I think Ben Johnson is coming in with an edict of building up the OL. I don't think the OL is anywhere near as bad as people think it was, it was league average, but I think modeling after the Lions is the goal. I think Banks profiles more as a G than a T but has elite upside. I could see him being not being a week 1 starter though.

OL Patrick Mekari, long-time utility piece for Baltimore, I think he gets paid more to do much of the same in Chicago.

G Kevin Zeitler, I think he follows Johnson from Detroit to play RG. At 35 might be in his last season.

C Drew Dalman, amazing run blocker the Falcons would love to keep, but they have major cap issues, and extending Drake London is probably a bigger priority.

WR Tyler Lockett, I think he's a cap casualty. I think Keenan Allen leaves for greener pastures (more on that later) but Lockett still gives them that veteran presence at #3 WR.

That is very much a Poles free agency right there. I like Dalman as the big splash pickup and it solidifies a huge need on the Bears IOL likely for years to come. Mekari and Zeitler wouldn't be day 1 free agent pickups, but fit the mold of guys Poles likes to pick up. While I'd prefer to have both Dalman and Trey Smith come to the Bears, I just don't see Poles spending 40mil/year on two offensive lineman even if they are young and proven studs. If the draft goes as you mocked, I'd be content with Banks at #10, knowing that the Bears would need to take a a DT and Edge with picks 39 and 41.

ETA - I like Locket as a versatile WR3, even if he did lose a step this season.

I no longer see Tyler Locett as a viable fantasy WR. He's 32 and will be 33 shortly after the season starts and has steadily decreased his production the last 2 years. I think he's a 400-600 with a coule of TDs guy going forward. Not someone I would target.

I think he meant WR3 for the Bears, not in fantasy. I'd take 600 yards and say, 4 TDs from a #3 WR.

 

[JohnnyU]

10. Chicago=Kelvin Banks OL Texas, I think Ben Johnson is coming in with an edict of building up the OL. I don't think the OL is anywhere near as bad as people think it was, it was league average, but I think modeling after the Lions is the goal. I think Banks profiles more as a G than a T but has elite upside. I could see him being not being a week 1 starter though.

OL Patrick Mekari, long-time utility piece for Baltimore, I think he gets paid more to do much of the same in Chicago.

G Kevin Zeitler, I think he follows Johnson from Detroit to play RG. At 35 might be in his last season.

C Drew Dalman, amazing run blocker the Falcons would love to keep, but they have major cap issues, and extending Drake London is probably a bigger priority.

WR Tyler Lockett, I think he's a cap casualty. I think Keenan Allen leaves for greener pastures (more on that later) but Lockett still gives them that veteran presence at #3 WR.

That is very much a Poles free agency right there. I like Dalman as the big splash pickup and it solidifies a huge need on the Bears IOL likely for years to come. Mekari and Zeitler wouldn't be day 1 free agent pickups, but fit the mold of guys Poles likes to pick up. While I'd prefer to have both Dalman and Trey Smith come to the Bears, I just don't see Poles spending 40mil/year on two offensive lineman even if they are young and proven studs. If the draft goes as you mocked, I'd be content with Banks at #10, knowing that the Bears would need to take a a DT and Edge with picks 39 and 41.

ETA - I like Locket as a versatile WR3, even if he did lose a step this season.

I no longer see Tyler Locett as a viable fantasy WR. He's 32 and will be 33 shortly after the season starts and has steadily decreased his production the last 2 years. I think he's a 400-600 with a coule of TDs guy going forward. Not someone I would target.

I think he meant WR3 for the Bears, not in fantasy. I'd take 600 yards and say, 4 TDs from a #3 WR.

I think his days are numbered, but I could be wrong.

I guess all of our days are numbered

 

[Tau837]

I could be wrong, but I'm not sure Bosa is gone. I think there could be some restructuring to play with there. I think Bosa (or Bosa's agent) will realize his market is nowhere near what it was 2-3 years ago now that's he's gonna be 30, I don't know that a better deal/situation exists for him.

He is in decline. The 2024 seasons was the worst of his career by far. Consider his PFF defense grades:

• 2016 - 86.6
• 2017 - 88.8
• 2018 - 71.5
• 2019 - 89.6
• 2020 - 90.2
• 2021 - 85.8
• 2022 - 76.0
• 2023 - 78.4
• 2024 - 61.1

His subgrades that contribute to that overall defense grade:

• Pass rush - 64.8 - worst of his career
• Run defense - 67.4 - 3rd worst of his career
• Tackling - 35.4 - 2nd worst of his career
• Coverage - 60.5 - 2nd worst of his career, though this is obviously less important for his position

He has only played more than 563 snaps in a season 3 times, and the last time was 2021. Mack is older, yet he has played nearly 2000 more snaps than Bosa since he came to the Chargers before the 2022 season. And, to his credit, Joey plays through injuries when he can, but that means a lot of the snaps he plays are at less than 100%, which makes him less effective and impactful.

I can't see the team keeping Bosa at his current cap hit when they could clear $25M in cap space by trading/releasing him. I suppose he could take a pay cut, as he did last season, but it would need to be really substantial, like a $10M to $15M pay cut. It would surprise me if he was willing to do that. I suppose the Chargers could sign him to a contract extension that lowered his 2025 cap hit, but he isn't worth what I expect it would take to sign him.

Agree with you on his market, just not sure he will go along with accepting his true market value from the Chargers.

I don't see TE1 as a hole at all. I think Will Dissly is an above average NFL starting TE. He's not explosive, but he's good at everything, hands, routes, blocking.

I like Dissly, and I'm not suggesting that he shouldn't still have a big role... maybe it is a 1a/1b situation, where Dissly runs fewer routes and blocks more.

Unfortunately, Dissly is not strong in the passing game. PFF graded 43 TEs this season with at least 30 targets, and Dissly's receiving grade ranked #26. You say he has good hands, but he was #38 in the group in drop percentage at 8.8%. His YPC is low at 9.6, and he had just 2 TDs. Adding a TE that is better than Dissly as a receiver would help the Chargers play more 2 TE personnel groupings, which I think they would like to do.

I'll be very curious how they view Dobbins. If they re-signed him, and added say a 3rd round guy, I wouldn't be surprised. If they let him walk, and added a guy in round 2, or round 1 if Jeanty slipped, I wouldn't be surprised. One name I'm also curious about (in general, but especially in a Roman offense) is Nick Chubb. He'll be cheap, he'll be another year removed from his knee injury, and at this time 2 years ago, he was arguably the best runner in the NFL. He feels like a no-risk, high reward option, and LA pulled a somewhat similar move with Dobbins a year ago.

I agree with all of this.

I don't like Maye over Herbert, but (and I'm certain we've talked about this in other threads) I don't see the Chargers paying Higgins elite #1 WR money, when he's not that level of player, and they already have a WR who is probably better than he is. NE is desperate, the Chargers aren't. I think the offers could certainly be 5 million a year apart, and the guarantees and length even larger. I'd also add, I think if QB quality is a primary driver of where Higgins ends up, then he's not leaving Cincinnati.

Fair enough.

 

[travdogg]

I could be wrong, but I'm not sure Bosa is gone. I think there could be some restructuring to play with there. I think Bosa (or Bosa's agent) will realize his market is nowhere near what it was 2-3 years ago now that's he's gonna be 30, I don't know that a better deal/situation exists for him.

He is in decline. He has only played more than 563 snaps in a season 3 times, and the last time was 2021. The 2024 seasons was the worst of his career by far. Consider his PFF grades:

• 2016 - 86.6
• 2017 - 88.8
• 2018 - 71.5
• 2019 - 89.6
• 2020 - 90.2
• 2021 - 85.8
• 2022 - 76.0
• 2023 - 78.4
• 2024 - 61.1

I can't see the team keeping Bosa at his current cap hit when they could clear $25M in cap space by trading/releasing him. I suppose he could take a pay cut, as he did last season, but it would need to be really substantial, like a $10M to $15M pay cut. It would surprise me if he was willing to do that. I suppose the Chargers could sign him to a contract extension that lowered his 2025 cap hit, but he isn't worth what I expect it would take to sign him.

Agree with you on his market, just not sure he will go along with accepting his true market value from the Chargers.

I don't see TE1 as a hole at all. I think Will Dissly is an above average NFL starting TE. He's not explosive, but he's good at everything, hands, routes, blocking.

I like Dissly, and I'm not suggesting that he shouldn't still have a big role... maybe it is a 1a/1b situation, where Dissly runs fewer routes and blocks more.

Unfortunately, Dissly is not strong in the passing game. PFF graded 43 TEs this season with at least 30 targets, and Dissly's receiving grade ranked #26. You say he has good hands, but he was #38 in the group in drop percentage at 8.8%. His YPC is low at 9.6, and he had just 2 TDs. Adding a TE that is better than Dissly as a receiver would help the Chargers play more 2 TE personnel groupings, which I think they would like to do.

I think Dissly's numbers were a little bit more about the function of the offense than about him. His career YPC was 11.1 coming into the season, so I put the 9.6 on the offense, not him. His yards per route run was 10th in the NFL, and I think that's a better stat than YPC. The drops were an outlier as well. He had 9 drops in his 6 year career, before having 5 last season.

As for Bosa, I fully agree with everything you said, I just think he'll be more open to taking a pay cut to stay. I do also wonder how much he's declined, and how much has been playing hurt. I think the elite pass rusher is gone, but I think he's still a solid starter, when he's healthy. I think something like 2/25(12.5/year) feels fair. Given his age/recent health, I don't see more than that on the open market.

 

[BoltNlava]

I could be wrong, but I'm not sure Bosa is gone. I think there could be some restructuring to play with there. I think Bosa (or Bosa's agent) will realize his market is nowhere near what it was 2-3 years ago now that's he's gonna be 30, I don't know that a better deal/situation exists for him.

He is in decline. He has only played more than 563 snaps in a season 3 times, and the last time was 2021. The 2024 seasons was the worst of his career by far. Consider his PFF grades:

• 2016 - 86.6
• 2017 - 88.8
• 2018 - 71.5
• 2019 - 89.6
• 2020 - 90.2
• 2021 - 85.8
• 2022 - 76.0
• 2023 - 78.4
• 2024 - 61.1

I can't see the team keeping Bosa at his current cap hit when they could clear $25M in cap space by trading/releasing him. I suppose he could take a pay cut, as he did last season, but it would need to be really substantial, like a $10M to $15M pay cut. It would surprise me if he was willing to do that. I suppose the Chargers could sign him to a contract extension that lowered his 2025 cap hit, but he isn't worth what I expect it would take to sign him.

Agree with you on his market, just not sure he will go along with accepting his true market value from the Chargers.

I don't see TE1 as a hole at all. I think Will Dissly is an above average NFL starting TE. He's not explosive, but he's good at everything, hands, routes, blocking.

I like Dissly, and I'm not suggesting that he shouldn't still have a big role... maybe it is a 1a/1b situation, where Dissly runs fewer routes and blocks more.

Unfortunately, Dissly is not strong in the passing game. PFF graded 43 TEs this season with at least 30 targets, and Dissly's receiving grade ranked #26. You say he has good hands, but he was #38 in the group in drop percentage at 8.8%. His YPC is low at 9.6, and he had just 2 TDs. Adding a TE that is better than Dissly as a receiver would help the Chargers play more 2 TE personnel groupings, which I think they would like to do.

I think Dissly's numbers were a little bit more about the function of the offense than about him. His career YPC was 11.1 coming into the season, so I put the 9.6 on the offense, not him. His yards per route run was 10th in the NFL, and I think that's a better stat than YPC. The drops were an outlier as well. He had 9 drops in his 6 year career, before having 5 last season.

As for Bosa, I fully agree with everything you said, I just think he'll be more open to taking a pay cut to stay. I do also wonder how much he's declined, and how much has been playing hurt. I think the elite pass rusher is gone, but I think he's still a solid starter, when he's healthy. I think something like 2/25(12.5/year) feels fair. Given his age/recent health, I don't see more than that on the open market.

Yes, but even at a supreme discount why do it? Just move on. Get younger and have more $ to use. I also think he is gone.

 

[travdogg]

I could be wrong, but I'm not sure Bosa is gone. I think there could be some restructuring to play with there. I think Bosa (or Bosa's agent) will realize his market is nowhere near what it was 2-3 years ago now that's he's gonna be 30, I don't know that a better deal/situation exists for him.

He is in decline. He has only played more than 563 snaps in a season 3 times, and the last time was 2021. The 2024 seasons was the worst of his career by far. Consider his PFF grades:

• 2016 - 86.6
• 2017 - 88.8
• 2018 - 71.5
• 2019 - 89.6
• 2020 - 90.2
• 2021 - 85.8
• 2022 - 76.0
• 2023 - 78.4
• 2024 - 61.1

I can't see the team keeping Bosa at his current cap hit when they could clear $25M in cap space by trading/releasing him. I suppose he could take a pay cut, as he did last season, but it would need to be really substantial, like a $10M to $15M pay cut. It would surprise me if he was willing to do that. I suppose the Chargers could sign him to a contract extension that lowered his 2025 cap hit, but he isn't worth what I expect it would take to sign him.

Agree with you on his market, just not sure he will go along with accepting his true market value from the Chargers.

I don't see TE1 as a hole at all. I think Will Dissly is an above average NFL starting TE. He's not explosive, but he's good at everything, hands, routes, blocking.

I like Dissly, and I'm not suggesting that he shouldn't still have a big role... maybe it is a 1a/1b situation, where Dissly runs fewer routes and blocks more.

Unfortunately, Dissly is not strong in the passing game. PFF graded 43 TEs this season with at least 30 targets, and Dissly's receiving grade ranked #26. You say he has good hands, but he was #38 in the group in drop percentage at 8.8%. His YPC is low at 9.6, and he had just 2 TDs. Adding a TE that is better than Dissly as a receiver would help the Chargers play more 2 TE personnel groupings, which I think they would like to do.

I think Dissly's numbers were a little bit more about the function of the offense than about him. His career YPC was 11.1 coming into the season, so I put the 9.6 on the offense, not him. His yards per route run was 10th in the NFL, and I think that's a better stat than YPC. The drops were an outlier as well. He had 9 drops in his 6 year career, before having 5 last season.

As for Bosa, I fully agree with everything you said, I just think he'll be more open to taking a pay cut to stay. I do also wonder how much he's declined, and how much has been playing hurt. I think the elite pass rusher is gone, but I think he's still a solid starter, when he's healthy. I think something like 2/25(12.5/year) feels fair. Given his age/recent health, I don't see more than that on the open market.

Yes, but even at a supreme discount why do it? Just move on. Get younger and have more $ to use. I also think he is gone.

Alternatively, if he takes said discount, why create a hole to fill at a key position, when you already have a good player, who is also a team leader? Cutting Bosa and then needing to spend a 1st/2nd round pick on an edge feels like bad resource management to me, just to save a few bucks, that they don't really need.

If Bosa is open to the type of deal I'm suggesting, the only reason to get rid of him to save money, is if they are planning a huge splash, and I mean a huge splash, like a trade for Myles Garrett, or Tyreek Hill. Which feels like wishful thinking.

 

[BoltNlava]

I could be wrong, but I'm not sure Bosa is gone. I think there could be some restructuring to play with there. I think Bosa (or Bosa's agent) will realize his market is nowhere near what it was 2-3 years ago now that's he's gonna be 30, I don't know that a better deal/situation exists for him.

He is in decline. He has only played more than 563 snaps in a season 3 times, and the last time was 2021. The 2024 seasons was the worst of his career by far. Consider his PFF grades:

• 2016 - 86.6
• 2017 - 88.8
• 2018 - 71.5
• 2019 - 89.6
• 2020 - 90.2
• 2021 - 85.8
• 2022 - 76.0
• 2023 - 78.4
• 2024 - 61.1

I can't see the team keeping Bosa at his current cap hit when they could clear $25M in cap space by trading/releasing him. I suppose he could take a pay cut, as he did last season, but it would need to be really substantial, like a $10M to $15M pay cut. It would surprise me if he was willing to do that. I suppose the Chargers could sign him to a contract extension that lowered his 2025 cap hit, but he isn't worth what I expect it would take to sign him.

Agree with you on his market, just not sure he will go along with accepting his true market value from the Chargers.

I don't see TE1 as a hole at all. I think Will Dissly is an above average NFL starting TE. He's not explosive, but he's good at everything, hands, routes, blocking.

I like Dissly, and I'm not suggesting that he shouldn't still have a big role... maybe it is a 1a/1b situation, where Dissly runs fewer routes and blocks more.

Unfortunately, Dissly is not strong in the passing game. PFF graded 43 TEs this season with at least 30 targets, and Dissly's receiving grade ranked #26. You say he has good hands, but he was #38 in the group in drop percentage at 8.8%. His YPC is low at 9.6, and he had just 2 TDs. Adding a TE that is better than Dissly as a receiver would help the Chargers play more 2 TE personnel groupings, which I think they would like to do.

I think Dissly's numbers were a little bit more about the function of the offense than about him. His career YPC was 11.1 coming into the season, so I put the 9.6 on the offense, not him. His yards per route run was 10th in the NFL, and I think that's a better stat than YPC. The drops were an outlier as well. He had 9 drops in his 6 year career, before having 5 last season.

As for Bosa, I fully agree with everything you said, I just think he'll be more open to taking a pay cut to stay. I do also wonder how much he's declined, and how much has been playing hurt. I think the elite pass rusher is gone, but I think he's still a solid starter, when he's healthy. I think something like 2/25(12.5/year) feels fair. Given his age/recent health, I don't see more than that on the open market.

Yes, but even at a supreme discount why do it? Just move on. Get younger and have more $ to use. I also think he is gone.

Alternatively, if he takes said discount, why create a hole to fill at a key position, when you already have a good player, who is also a team leader? Cutting Bosa and then needing to spend a 1st/2nd round pick on an edge feels like bad resource management to me, just to save a few bucks, that they don't really need.

If Bosa is open to the type of deal I'm suggesting, the only reason to get rid of him to save money, is if they are planning a huge splash, and I mean a huge splash, like a trade for Myles Garrett, or Tyreek Hill. Which feels like wishful thinking.

Could he possibly stay healthy?? When was the last time Bosa pulled his weight (of contract) ? It's just time. Pull the band aid off and get cap relief and get younger if possible. The Chargers showed they are not a Bosa away from the SB. If we are constantly replacing him with lesser players anyway -why not just do that?

 

[Tau837]

I could be wrong, but I'm not sure Bosa is gone. I think there could be some restructuring to play with there. I think Bosa (or Bosa's agent) will realize his market is nowhere near what it was 2-3 years ago now that's he's gonna be 30, I don't know that a better deal/situation exists for him.

He is in decline. He has only played more than 563 snaps in a season 3 times, and the last time was 2021. The 2024 seasons was the worst of his career by far. Consider his PFF grades:

• 2016 - 86.6
• 2017 - 88.8
• 2018 - 71.5
• 2019 - 89.6
• 2020 - 90.2
• 2021 - 85.8
• 2022 - 76.0
• 2023 - 78.4
• 2024 - 61.1

I can't see the team keeping Bosa at his current cap hit when they could clear $25M in cap space by trading/releasing him. I suppose he could take a pay cut, as he did last season, but it would need to be really substantial, like a $10M to $15M pay cut. It would surprise me if he was willing to do that. I suppose the Chargers could sign him to a contract extension that lowered his 2025 cap hit, but he isn't worth what I expect it would take to sign him.

Agree with you on his market, just not sure he will go along with accepting his true market value from the Chargers.

I don't see TE1 as a hole at all. I think Will Dissly is an above average NFL starting TE. He's not explosive, but he's good at everything, hands, routes, blocking.

I like Dissly, and I'm not suggesting that he shouldn't still have a big role... maybe it is a 1a/1b situation, where Dissly runs fewer routes and blocks more.

Unfortunately, Dissly is not strong in the passing game. PFF graded 43 TEs this season with at least 30 targets, and Dissly's receiving grade ranked #26. You say he has good hands, but he was #38 in the group in drop percentage at 8.8%. His YPC is low at 9.6, and he had just 2 TDs. Adding a TE that is better than Dissly as a receiver would help the Chargers play more 2 TE personnel groupings, which I think they would like to do.

I think Dissly's numbers were a little bit more about the function of the offense than about him. His career YPC was 11.1 coming into the season, so I put the 9.6 on the offense, not him. His yards per route run was 10th in the NFL, and I think that's a better stat than YPC. The drops were an outlier as well. He had 9 drops in his 6 year career, before having 5 last season.

As for Bosa, I fully agree with everything you said, I just think he'll be more open to taking a pay cut to stay. I do also wonder how much he's declined, and how much has been playing hurt. I think the elite pass rusher is gone, but I think he's still a solid starter, when he's healthy. I think something like 2/25(12.5/year) feels fair. Given his age/recent health, I don't see more than that on the open market.

Yes, but even at a supreme discount why do it? Just move on. Get younger and have more $ to use. I also think he is gone.

Alternatively, if he takes said discount, why create a hole to fill at a key position, when you already have a good player, who is also a team leader? Cutting Bosa and then needing to spend a 1st/2nd round pick on an edge feels like bad resource management to me, just to save a few bucks, that they don't really need.

If Bosa is open to the type of deal I'm suggesting, the only reason to get rid of him to save money, is if they are planning a huge splash, and I mean a huge splash, like a trade for Myles Garrett, or Tyreek Hill. Which feels like wishful thinking.

I disagree with the bolded. Cutting Bosa and drafting the best edge available at #22 should be an upgrade at one starting edge position -- hopefully an upgrade in quality of play and availability. It would also inject youth into a position group that should include Mack and Dupree.

If they cut or trade Bosa, RG Pipkins, and RB Edwards, IMO the Chargers have 27 core players currently under contract for 2025. They have 10 draft picks, and most of those should make the team.

But they will also have more than $90M in cap space to fill the other 16-20 positions with free agents. I think they should be aggressive in using that cap space and those roster spots to seriously upgrade the roster. They will have enough cap space to re-sign 10-15 internal free agents and also sign 3 or more premium free agents.

For example, they could sign all of WR Higgins, G Trey Smith, and IDL Milton Williams. It doesn't have to be those players, but the point is they can sign 3 players of that caliber and price while also keeping most of their internal free agents. But using my example here, WR, G, and IDL are removed from consideration at the top of the draft, which frees the team up to draft edge, RB, TE, all additional positions where they need upgrades.

I would much rather they take this kind of approach than trading for Myles Garrett, Garrett Wilson, etc.

They have a real opportunity to transform this roster into a contender. They have never had an offseason with anything close to this amount of available cap space and draft picks. I'm looking forward to watching how they attack it.

 

[scothawk]

Awesome takes on all team.Lots of logic and reasoning behind it plus some explanations for the outliers.

Im going to stick to what I know best to reply.

Seahawks ownership has disconnected from their fan base. Ticket sales aren't automatic. I'm going to avoid talking about the reasons for that (hint - they are positional related) but right now I don't see them going DB when they have massive issues on the line.

Actually as I type this then maybe they do need an extra CB

Ok. In summary im as lost as everyone else. But thanks for such a great post.

 

[Insein]

WR Tee Higgins, I think its 50-50 he stays in Cincinnati, but if he leaves, this is 99.9% his destination. I don't know if he's truly a #1 WR, but he'll easily be the best Pats WR since at least Edelman.

You think Higgins would choose Maye and NE over Herbert and LA? I'm skeptical, unless NE is willing to pay a non-trivial premium.

Higgins is a perfect match for what the Chargers need, and I am hoping they will go after him aggressively.

I do, think Maye is a draw, and NE has cap space to improve their roster, maybe they will have to pay more but not a lot more and think they are willing to do it.

Do you think Maye > Herbert as a draw? Do you think NE roster > LAC roster entering 2025 season? I think no to both.

Another way to frame that second question: Do you think it is more likely LAC or NE will get into true Super Bowl contender status sooner? IMO the answer is obviously LAC.

Do you think Vrabel > Harbaugh as a draw? That one is close, but I think edge to Harbaugh for offensive players. That said, any given player could prefer either one.

Living in LA > NE for most people, even if only due to the weather.

Add it all up, IMO LAC > NE for Higgins.

As for cap space, LAC will have plenty, and would have no problem signing Higgins to a $30M/year contract.

I think NE definitely has to pay more for situation but also lifestyle. Much easier to live in Southern CA than Massachusetts.

 

[JohnnyU]

WR Tee Higgins, I think its 50-50 he stays in Cincinnati, but if he leaves, this is 99.9% his destination. I don't know if he's truly a #1 WR, but he'll easily be the best Pats WR since at least Edelman.

You think Higgins would choose Maye and NE over Herbert and LA? I'm skeptical, unless NE is willing to pay a non-trivial premium.

Higgins is a perfect match for what the Chargers need, and I am hoping they will go after him aggressively.

I do, think Maye is a draw, and NE has cap space to improve their roster, maybe they will have to pay more but not a lot more and think they are willing to do it.

Do you think Maye > Herbert as a draw? Do you think NE roster > LAC roster entering 2025 season? I think no to both.

Another way to frame that second question: Do you think it is more likely LAC or NE will get into true Super Bowl contender status sooner? IMO the answer is obviously LAC.

Do you think Vrabel > Harbaugh as a draw? That one is close, but I think edge to Harbaugh for offensive players. That said, any given player could prefer either one.

Living in LA > NE for most people, even if only due to the weather.

Add it all up, IMO LAC > NE for Higgins.

As for cap space, LAC will have plenty, and would have no problem signing Higgins to a $30M/year contract.

I think NE definitely has to pay more for situation but also lifestyle. Much easier to live in Southern CA than Massachusetts.

Except for Jan / 2025.

 

[Hankmoody]

Darnold is probably a greater threat than Will Howard on the ground and it worked out fairly well at Ohio St anyway.

Edit: Will Howard’s 40 time is projected to match Darnolds at 4.85.

This is a good point but for a different reason than you cite. Running the read option is a lot more than 40 time, it's about making that initial read on the edge and making the right decision fast and getting the play going. It takes a lot of reps to learn that read, and Will Howard didn't even really execute it very well a lot of times. There were a lot of instances he made the wrong read and many times it looked to me like it was a predetermined decision where the mesh was just to sell it and create hesitation. I think it was the Penn State game where he didn't even keep it once until about 6 minutes left in the game. Howard's throwing was much more key to the success of the offense and the threat of the run option was the important part, not the QB's actual stats.

If Darnold has the chops to run it I'd be all for it. I doubt it comes to that though, I'd be shocked if MIN didn't tag him. Justin Fields is who I have on my wish list.