Kamara moving up seems odd.
Kamara moving up four spots when his quarterback obviously had no proclivity to dump the ball off and then Kendre Miller looked much more dynamic as a runner is completely perplexing. The rushing share was cut significantly from the year before and Kellen Moore never passes to the RBs nor did Rattler ever look for him. It was his lowest target share of his career.
Quoi?
The Saints offense (Rattler really) showed more than I was expecting, and I didn't think Miller looked better at all. Kamara saw 82% of the snaps (5th highest of any RB in the NFL) and I think 1 game is a little too fast to just assume Kamara is gonna be like a 30-catch guy now, though I do agree his days of 80 catches are probably gone.
Its funny, I'm usually the guy who is too low on Kamara.
Like I said, we must have watched different games. Here's Pro Football Focus and their grades, then an encapsulated "positives of the game" from USA Today, and then SB Nation's Blog called Canal Street Chronicles. All of them point out Miller as having a very good day relative to the rest of the Saints. Even the one that praises Kamara says that Miller should get more carries.
I guess we just watch football differently.
Top 5 players on offense
- C Erik McCoy: 79.7
- QB Spencer Rattler: 77.3
- LT Kelvin Banks Jr.: 69.1
- RB Kendre Miller: 64.5
- WR Devaughn Vele: 64.0
"The Saints ran the football well. They averaged a healthy 4.9 yards per carry as a team, and everyone who touched the football gained at least 4.1 yards per rush. Alvin Kamara looks rejuvenated, but Kendre Miller was a breath of fresh air. He needs more opportunities." - Saintswire (USA Today)
Up: Kendre Miller
Running back Kendre Miller was one of the biggest standouts during the preseason. The third-year running back’s numbers didn’t pop off the box score, but he’s shown his elite burst and Alvin Kamara-like balance. Miller is expected to have a bigger role in Kellen Moore’s offense and saw some action early against Arizona. Unfortunately, Miller only saw 5 carries on Sunday, rushing for 24 yards. Once the Cardinals started to take a lead, the Saints went away from the running game. While limited, Miller showed off everything he did in the preseason against a starting NFL defense. But it wasn’t on offense that the third-year running back made an impact. Miller also returned kicks for New Orleans on Sunday, logging 3 returns for 88 yards, including a 43-yard return. Kellen Moore has emphasized his desire to run the ball, and the team was able to do it well enough against Arizona. Hopefully, once the offense starts to flesh itself out, Miller will see more touches. - Canal Street Chronicles
I mean, Kamara is right there at 61.4, pretty much the exact same as Miller. I'm not arguing Miller is bad, I'm arguing he's not a threat to Kamara. A couple writers saying he should get more work means little to nothing to me, Kamara seeing a higher snap rate than all but 4 RBs in the NFL speaks more to me. I think Miller was treated unfairly by the previous regime, injuries didn't help, but Miller played 11 of 77 offensive snaps.
And rookie Devin Neal had 2 totes as well.
Actually, Devin Neal got the lowest grade of any offensive player, and I don't know whose argument that helps.
eta* Sorry, fifth worst. He got a 51.2
He had two carries for nine yards, not sure that anything can really be determined by that other than the coaching staff wanting to get him some touches. I am sure he is not much of a factor going forward, but worth noting if we are talking about Miller’s involvement.
Sure, I'm just unsure of your assumptions. Don't really know the angle. I think if a guy has a series you can certainly grade it and I'd imagine that's what they did for Neal. I don't put tons of stock in grades of limited samples. Other stuff goes along with it. I'm just surprised Kamara jumps four spots after a game in which the coach and QB kind of solidify that the strongest part of the RBs game trav just elevated is going to be a non-factor like never before in his career.
I was pointing out the rushing grades because if you take that away from Kamara, then Miller has gotten better rushing grades since 2023 and has been better with yards after contact and missed tackles. From PFF:
"Miller’s rushing grade is slightly better than Kamara’s over the last two seasons. The two have identical yards per carry, with Miller having more yards after contact per attempt, and twice as many avoided tackles per run. Miller has a slightly higher first-down rate. There is a seven-year age gap between Kamara and Miller, as Miller is more likely to improve while Kamara is more likely to decline."
So I don't see why if you're seeing this why you'd bump Kamara up four spots unless the guys ahead of him are falling. That could be. I don't think travdogg has a great reason. I mean, it's actually not well-reasoned at all, IMO.
I guess I'll cite authority here. From Sports Illustrated (who stink but are spot-on here)
Why Alvin Kamara Will Face Plant In Week 2 And Beyond of the NFL Season
Alvin Kamara’s fantasy football outlook is trending down after a concerning Week 1 role shift, raising red flags about his usage in the Saints’ new offense.
Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints
The key to Kamara's fantasy value has come in the passing game for years now. His lowest amount of targets in any game last season was three. However, the Saints now have a new regime in New Orleans, and in Week 1, Kamara saw just two targets that he turned into 11 yards. It wasn't a terrible fantasy week for him because he scored a touchdown on the ground, but that's going to be tough to depend on in
what could be the worst offense in the NFL, led by quarterback Spencer Rattler.
On the ground, he saw 11 of the team's 22 carries, which he took for 45 yards and a score. His volume coming down in the rushing game could also become a concern, but we never expected him to be great on the ground to begin with. At 30 years old, he hasn't been a difference maker on the ground in quite some time now. If his passing volume comes down, he could be in big trouble.
The writing had been on the wall for Kamara all offseason. We knew that Kellen Moore wasn't going to use his first head coaching opportunity to dump the ball off over and over to an aging running back. That's exactly what got that last regime fired. Despite all his faults, we saw Rattler heavily utilize Juwan Johnson in Week 1 and take shots down the field to his wideouts, even if most of them didn't connect. However, it's Johnson who's going to be the issue for Kamara. He caught eight of 11 targets for 76 yards. Those were the safety blanket targets that used to go to Kamara.
There are going to be a lot of weeks this season when fantasy owners are disappointed in Kamara if he fails to find the end zone. The best-case scenario for him may be if he gets traded before the deadline to a team that needs him in the passing game. - Sports Illustrated
