Travdogg's positional rankings from week 7 onward (1 Viewer)

[travdogg]

QB
Tier 1:
1. Josh Allen (1)
2. Jalen Hurts (2)
3. Patrick Mahomes (3)
Tier 2:
4. Justin Herbert (4)
5. Lamar Jackson (5)
6. Tua Tagovailoa (6)
7. Joe Burrow (9), didn't have a huge game against Seattle, but is looking like he's getting back to health and now gets a much-needed bye to rest. Congrats to those who bought low.
Tier 3:
8. Justin Fields (8)
9. Trevor Lawrence (7)
10. Jared Goff (14), I don't think anyone is playing better in the NFL right now. If the offense gets more pass heavy in the redzone with Monty banged up, he'll be matchup proof.
11. Kirk Cousins (10)
Tier 4:
12. CJ Stroud (11)
13. Brock Purdy (12)
14. Geno Smith (15)
15. Deshaun Watson (NR), probably has the most upside of the remaining names, but don't feel great about him or his shoulder. That said, he has a good OL, and weapons around him.

Dropped off: Matthew Stafford (13), team is very run/FG heavy in the redzone, and Stafford loses ground to move run heavy QBs.

 

[travdogg]

RB
Tier 1:
1. Christian McCaffrey (1)
2. Travis Etienne (6)
3. Austin Ekeler (2)
4. Bijan Robinson (3)
5. Tony Pollard (4)
Tier 2:
6. Kenneth Walker (5)
7. Josh Jacobs (9)
8. Saquon Barkley (7)
9. Breece Hall (13)
10. Jonathan Taylor (16), went from barely used to a about a 50-50 split. I'm gonna bet this a trend and not what it going to be. I think Taylor will be seeing 2/3rds of the work soon, possibly this week.
Tier 3:
11. De'Von Achane (14)
12. Raheem Mostert (22), we'll see what happens when Achane is back, but Mostert is going to be an RB1 until then. Most matchups are gonna be tougher than Carolina, but this offense is rolling.
13. D'Andre Swift (12)
14. Joe Mixon (10)
Tier 4:
15. Kyren Williams (11)
16. David Montgomery (8), the tables have turned and now Monty is hurt and Gibbs is healthy. Worry about ribs with a guy whose game is based on physical running.
17. Aaron Jones (17)
18. Isiah Pacheco (23), 3 straight top-15 weeks. I'm not ready to trust the passing game work as being reliable, but its been a nice bonus.
19. Derrick Henry (15)
20. Alvin Kamara (20)
21. Rhamondre Stevenson 21)
Tier 5:
22. Brian Robinson (19)
23. James Cook (25)
24. Jerome Ford (28)
25. Rachaad White (26)
26. Jahmyr Gibbs (NR), sounds like he's good to go after his hamstring injury, and its not out of the question he makes major inroads on Monty's job. Possible this is 50-50 going forward, but Gibbs has to prove worthy.
Tier 6:
27. Alexander Mattison (NR), Akers has been zero threat as expected, but the production is nothing to write home about. Vikings did seem a little more run heavy without Jefferson, which may be a trend, or may be just playing the Bears.
28. James Conner (29)
29. Dameon Pierce (27)
30. Devin Singletary (NR), he's cutting in like he always does. Coaches just love the guy, and I think a 50-50 RBBC is happening in Houston.

Dropped off: Jeff Wilson (18), seems like Achane should be back right after his IR stint, and I think I was just being too low on Mostert based on previous sentiment, which I am guilty of a lot, which is sometimes right, and sometimes wrong. Roschon Johnson (24), Fields getting hurt takes a lot out of the running game. Herbert should be back at the end of his stint, and Foreman could be a thorn in Johnson's side until then. Justice Hill (30), Ravens RBs are a crapshoot without Dobbins. Not sure there is value to be mined there in anything but the deepest of leagues.

 

[travdogg]

WR
Tier 1:
1. Tyreek Hill (1)
2. Stefon Diggs (3)
3. AJ Brown (4)
4. Ja'Marr Chase (5)
Tier 2:
5. Keenan Allen (2)
6. Cooper Kupp (7)
7. Amon-Ra St. Brown (10)
8. Davante Adams (6)
Tier 3:
9. Puka Nacua (9)
10. Brandon Aiyuk (15)
11. CeeDee Lamb (11)
12. Adam Thielen (19), he can't keep getting away with this right? Well, probably not at this level, but I don't see him falling off too much. Carolina is always going to be playing from behind. I wouldn't be opposed to selling high, but it needs to be high.
13. DK Metcalf (16)
14. Jaylen Waddle (14)
Tier 4:
15. DJ Moore (18)
16. Justin Jefferson (8), jumps back into the top-5 when he's back, but will that be 4 weeks or 6 weeks?
17. Amari Cooper (21)
18. Mike Evans (23)
19. Chris Olave (13)
20. Calvin Ridley (17)
21. DeVonta Smith (12)
Tier 5:
22. Nico Collins (28)
23. Michael Pittman (26)
24. Deebo Samuel (20)
25. Chris Godwin (27)
Tier 6:
26. Jordan Addison (30)
27. Christian Watson (29)
28. Garrett Wilson (31)
29. Zay Flowers (33)
30. Tee Higgins (22), I can see a buy-low argument, but I kinda wonder if Higgins is just more of a WR3, who was being carried by Burrow being elite. I think Chase is widening the gap between them.
Tier 7:
31. George Pickens (24), I'm on 2 minds with Pickens, one the one hand he's a very talented 2nd year player, who in 5 games has twice topped 125 yards on 10 targets. On the other hand, he's been mostly invisible beyond those 2 games, and his best came without Diontae Johnson or Pat Freiermuth in the lineup, and both could be back coming off the bye week. I'm gonna side with his breakout being more because of the latter, but very open to being proven wrong, its truly a guess.
32. Christian Kirk (34)
33. Tyler Lockett (32)
Tier 8:
34. Jakobi Meyers (40)
35. Hollywood Brown (36)
36. Drake London (37)
37. Terry McLaurin (35)
38. DeAndre Hopkins (25), if Tannehill is out, Hopkins might be unusable. If Tannehill is ok, he's a WR. I'm splitting the difference.
39. Diontae Johnson (39)
40. Jerry Jeudy (38)

 

[travdogg]

TE
Tier 1:
1. Travis Kelce (1)
2. Mark Andrews (2)
3. TJ Hockenson (4)
Tier 2:
4. George Kittle (3)
5. Sam LaPorta (5)
6. Dallas Goedert (7)
7. Darren Waller (6)
Tier 3:
8. Evan Engram (8)
9. Kyle Pitts (10)
10. Jake Ferguson (9)
Tier 4:
11. Logan Thomas (13), despite the down week, I'm moving him up. Had at least 43 yards or a TD in every game before last week, and I don't think Washington is gonna be leading too often.
12. Luke Musgrave (14)
13. Jonnu Smith (NR), 3 straight top-10 weeks, and Atlanta seems committed to this 2-TE thing. I don't get it, but I can't explain it away like I can with Schultz.
14. Michael Mayer (NR), after being stuck behind Hooper the 1st 4 games, Mayer has been coming on the last 2 weeks. He's a guy who I thought should have been a 1st round pick, and the Raiders are a team that will be trailing throughout most games. There is upside to move up from here.
15. Dalton Kincaid (11), was making inroads on Knox, but may have to start over due to injury. Pecking order is still wide open after Diggs, but no confidence Kincaid is the guy, chance that it could be is what's keeping him on the list.

Dropped off: Dalton Schultz (12), would have been #16. This might be off base, but I can't help but think his recent breakout has less to do with him, and more to do with Tank Dell being out. I'd be selling high if someone thinks he's suddenly a TE1.

 

[Tau837]

How did this thread slip to page 3? Bringing it back.

5. Keenan Allen (2)

I'm not saying Allen should be ranked #2, but what about week 6 led you to drop him 4 spots and 1 tier? He had 7/85/1 against a very good defense, and could have easily had much more: Herbert overthrows wide-open Keenan Allen for potential 75-yard TD. And it wasn't just that one, Herbert missed Allen wide open for a big gain on another overthrow, I just can't find a video of that one.

Allen is basically uncoverable right now.

 

[RaidersAreOne]

Surprised you have Shultz so low but I get it given the Dell comment. He's been on a tear.

 

[Pigskin Fanatic]

15. DJ Moore (18)

thanks for continuing with this thread, it's a great topic every week. This movement up for Moore looks like a result of other receivers falling off rather than him moving up, so no adjustment for Fields being out? he is the unquestioned 1 at this point, but i'd assume they have to focus on the run more at least for this week, so less targets in store?

 

[RenegadeRoy]

How did this thread slip to page 3? Bringing it back.

5. Keenan Allen (2)

I'm not saying Allen should be ranked #2, but what about week 6 led you to drop him 4 spots and 1 tier? He had 7/85/1 against a very good defense, and could have easily had much more: Herbert overthrows wide-open Keenan Allen for potential 75-yard TD. And it wasn't just that one, Herbert missed Allen wide open for a big gain on another overthrow, I just can't find a video of that one.

Allen is basically uncoverable right now.

I mean... top 5 is pretty solid IMO. If I had to guess there are probably several factors: other WRs finally performing and moved up (Chase, AJB), the emergence of Josh Palmer (had like 50 yards and a TD negated by penalties, a few other catches knocked away by DBs but he'll get his), Ekeler being back in the offense providing more balance, and a tough schedule.

 

[Judge Smails]

Thanks Travdogg. Always like seeing these. We are like proud parents - everyone lobbies for their guys to be ranked higher. Guilty as charged. But analysis here is good. I look at tiers a little differently. As an example, there are a few alpha WR's that are tier 1. Then there is a very big group that when all is said and done will be 1,000 yards and 8 TD's. Happens every year. So to me mid tier 3 through tier 7 are one big WR tier. There will be a few outliers. I think Puka and Thielen regress, Waddle and others will pick it up, but for the most part that big tier is closer together than most people think.

 

[TheWinz]

Great stuff as usual, Trav! But I am gonna harp once again on your low ranking of Alvin Kamara. Since coming back in week 4, he is RB7 PPR. He has played half the games that most other RB's have played, and he is already RB23. Are you expecting Jamaal Williams to return and drain his value? Is there something about Kamara I am overlooking?

 

[travdogg]

How did this thread slip to page 3? Bringing it back.

5. Keenan Allen (2)

I'm not saying Allen should be ranked #2, but what about week 6 led you to drop him 4 spots and 1 tier? He had 7/85/1 against a very good defense, and could have easily had much more: Herbert overthrows wide-open Keenan Allen for potential 75-yard TD. And it wasn't just that one, Herbert missed Allen wide open for a big gain on another overthrow, I just can't find a video of that one.

Allen is basically uncoverable right now.

I just assumed everyone agreed so no need to comment.

As far as Allen goes, its just more of a gut feel than anything else. He should have had some big plays against Dallas, but Herbert missed, and Allen is basically sliding seamlessly (arguably upgrading) on the role Lamb had under Kellen Moore in Dallas last season. I still very much like the guy, but I just think Diggs offers a better floor/ceiling, and I'm also buying into Burrow's improved health, which lead to an upgrade for both Burrow and Chase.

I also think (and we've personally debated this a bit this season) that Ekeler's return lowers Allen's ceiling, as I believe the offense, specifically in the redzone, flows through Ekeler. Even on Monday, Ekeler was tacked at the one, on multiple occasions which then lead to Allen and Everett's TD's. Most weeks, those are 2 Ekeler TDs.

15. DJ Moore (18)

thanks for continuing with this thread, it's a great topic every week. This movement up for Moore looks like a result of other receivers falling off rather than him moving up, so no adjustment for Fields being out? he is the unquestioned 1 at this point, but i'd assume they have to focus on the run more at least for this week, so less targets in store?

I think DJ could be peppered with lots of screens, slants, and the like without Fields. His upside may take a hit, but its not like Fields insured some great floor. I'm tentatively only expecting Fields to miss 1 game, so Moore's spot is very subject to change if he's out longer, or the QB play is substantially different.

You are correct that Moore's move is less about him and more about moving down guys like:
Jefferson-questionable timeline
Olave-questionable offense, lots of touch competition
Ridley-banged up QB, somewhat disappointing returns thus far
Smith-seems the gap between him Brown is widening.

The difference between tier 3 and tier 4 is pretty significant. Probably bigger than 4 and 5 at WR.

 

[travdogg]

Thanks Travdogg. Always like seeing these. We are like proud parents - everyone lobbies for their guys to be ranked higher. Guilty as charged. But analysis here is good. I look at tiers a little differently. As an example, there are a few alpha WR's that are tier 1. Then there is a very big group that when all is said and done will be 1,000 yards and 8 TD's. Happens every year. So to me mid tier 3 through tier 7 are one big WR tier. There will be a few outliers. I think Puka and Thielen regress, Waddle and others will pick it up, but for the most part that big tier is closer together than most people think.

Yeah, tiering is the toughest part, and when I started doing these, I didn't do it. It was one of those popular demand kinda deals. It made more sense than doing like a value system like I was doing madden ratings or something (Tyreek is a 99, but Lamb is an 81 or whatever) I can certainly see your line of thinking there, I just am trying to be a little more, I don't know, transparent I guess in attempting to make some tougher calls. I feel like I'd get a little flak if I just lumped everyone after a certain point together. There is certainly a lot more movement, and bigger swings after a certain point.

Great stuff as usual, Trav! But I am gonna harp once again on your low ranking of Alvin Kamara. Since coming back in week 4, he is RB7 PPR. He has played half the games that most other RB's have played, and he is already RB23. Are you expecting Jamaal Williams to return and drain his value? Is there something about Kamara I am overlooking?

I think Kamara in 2023 is an average RB talent, I think Jamaal is a threat to his workload (especially GL) and I think Miller could emerge as the season goes on.

I've had Kamara as a sell high 3 weeks running. He's an RB2, but I think this RB7 run, is his absolute ceiling.

 

[zoonation]

Dude. I know you don’t like Kamara, for whatever reason, but 20? He’s top ten in a PPR league and closer to top 5. With no tds!

 

[zoonation]

Thanks Travdogg. Always like seeing these. We are like proud parents - everyone lobbies for their guys to be ranked higher. Guilty as charged. But analysis here is good. I look at tiers a little differently. As an example, there are a few alpha WR's that are tier 1. Then there is a very big group that when all is said and done will be 1,000 yards and 8 TD's. Happens every year. So to me mid tier 3 through tier 7 are one big WR tier. There will be a few outliers. I think Puka and Thielen regress, Waddle and others will pick it up, but for the most part that big tier is closer together than most people think.

Yeah, tiering is the toughest part, and when I started doing these, I didn't do it. It was one of those popular demand kinda deals. It made more sense than doing like a value system like I was doing madden ratings or something (Tyreek is a 99, but Lamb is an 81 or whatever) I can certainly see your line of thinking there, I just am trying to be a little more, I don't know, transparent I guess in attempting to make some tougher calls. I feel like I'd get a little flak if I just lumped everyone after a certain point together. There is certainly a lot more movement, and bigger swings after a certain point.

Great stuff as usual, Trav! But I am gonna harp once again on your low ranking of Alvin Kamara. Since coming back in week 4, he is RB7 PPR. He has played half the games that most other RB's have played, and he is already RB23. Are you expecting Jamaal Williams to return and drain his value? Is there something about Kamara I am overlooking?

I think Kamara in 2023 is an average RB talent, I think Jamaal is a threat to his workload (especially GL) and I think Miller could emerge as the season goes on.

I've had Kamara as a sell high 3 weeks running. He's an RB2, but I think this RB7 run, is his absolute ceiling.

Respectfully, this Kamara take has no basis in reality. He is the clear #1 option in the offense and, quite frankly, performs insanely well behind a terrible and injured oline.

But takes aside, you cannot, objectively, look at his usage and rank him outside the top 12 going forward. 20 is ridiculous.

 

[Deamon]

I think Kamara in 2023 is an average RB talent, I think Jamaal is a threat to his workload (especially GL) and I think Miller could emerge as the season goes on.

I've had Kamara as a sell high 3 weeks running. He's an RB2, but I think this RB7 run, is his absolute ceiling.

Guy is playing lights out. Wish I had some shares of him. How is he catching so many balls????