Trent Richardson, RB, Cleveland Browns (1 Viewer)

[Cookiemonster]

Ah, the arrogance of ignorance. If the the point of the shark pool is to agree with each other and spurn non-consensus opinions, you guys are doing a great job. Group think always wins championships, so start investing in champagne.

Ah, the arrogance and ignorance packaged in statistics. This forum has gone from being too full of has-been and never-were ex-football players, to politicians and lawyers who can only speak in statistics and act like they are trying to convince a jury of their case. There has to be a nice middle ground between "Passes my eyeball test, so I say it's so," and "50% of 8.3ypc equate to..." The worst part of both ends of that spectrum is either side will continue arguing and filling up threads with their opinion over and over and over... You said it. We get it. I can agree or disagree if I want to, but 15 posts from one guy that are 3+ paragraphs each, and 15 posts of equal length arguing back just make the rest of us want to quit following a thread we are otherwise interested in.I have watched Hillis play. I like him. He is a very good all around back. He is not great, nor does he have the ability to be. I have watched Richardson, and I think he has the strength, power , receiving and blocking ability of Hillis but he also has other attributes that Hillis can never have. I think that Richardson has more talent as an NFL RB without having played a game or even attended training camp than Hillis could ever aspire to. Sorry, I'm one of the has-been and never-was guys, and your stats and PFF reports don't impress me much. Neither does my eyeball test impress you. You post your projections, I'll post mine and we can move on.300/1250/8 and 43/380/1 sounds about ballpark. I am one that agrees with Weeden being an improvement over McCoy, if only slightly. Maybe not in efficiency but in respect for the whole field by the defense, thereby allowing more room for the runner, even if he is still the focus of the D.

 

[flc735]

Ah, the arrogance of ignorance. If the the point of the shark pool is to agree with each other and spurn non-consensus opinions, you guys are doing a great job. Group think always wins championships, so start investing in champagne.

Ah, the arrogance and ignorance packaged in statistics. This forum has gone from being too full of has-been and never-were ex-football players, to politicians and lawyers who can only speak in statistics and act like they are trying to convince a jury of their case. There has to be a nice middle ground between "Passes my eyeball test, so I say it's so," and "50% of 8.3ypc equate to..." The worst part of both ends of that spectrum is either side will continue arguing and filling up threads with their opinion over and over and over... You said it. We get it. I can agree or disagree if I want to, but 15 posts from one guy that are 3+ paragraphs each, and 15 posts of equal length arguing back just make the rest of us want to quit following a thread we are otherwise interested in.I have watched Hillis play. I like him. He is a very good all around back. He is not great, nor does he have the ability to be. I have watched Richardson, and I think he has the strength, power , receiving and blocking ability of Hillis but he also has other attributes that Hillis can never have. I think that Richardson has more talent as an NFL RB without having played a game or even attended training camp than Hillis could ever aspire to. Sorry, I'm one of the has-been and never-was guys, and your stats and PFF reports don't impress me much. Neither does my eyeball test impress you. You post your projections, I'll post mine and we can move on.300/1250/8 and 43/380/1 sounds about ballpark. I am one that agrees with Weeden being an improvement over McCoy, if only slightly. Maybe not in efficiency but in respect for the whole field by the defense, thereby allowing more room for the runner, even if he is still the focus of the D.

posting projections alone doesn't help anyone. i want to hear others opinions and explanations, even if they may be bad at times. to me, being able to get different prospective on a player that i won't normally is a valuable thing.

 

[Monsters of the Midway]

i want to hear others opinions and explanations, even if they may be bad at times. to me, being able to get different prospective on a player that i won't normally is a valuable thing.

This pretty much why I love the Shark Pool. I have nothing against the stats guys-I'm one myself-but for the most part I look at the players debated here looking for pros/cons which I haven't thought of vs specific numbers. But...the guys with specific numbers like JWB are the ones that resonate with me the most.So yes, or no

 

[Biabreakable]

So I was thinking about Cleveland's situation some more and I decided to look at what David and the other staffs team projections for Cleveland.

DD - QB 52 RA RB 390 RA 71 Rec

JW - QB 25 RA RB 400 RA 64 Rec

BH - QB 42 RA RB 371 RA 66 Rec

MT - QB 68 RA RB 336 RA 65 Rec

In the 1st 3 years of Childress in MN the RBs averaged 437 RA 63 Rec

Josh Cribbs will account for 20 or more of those rushing attempts but I am not sure how the other RBs will fit in yet.

 

[MAC_32]

So I was thinking about Cleveland's situation some more and I decided to look at what David and the other staffs team projections for Cleveland.

DD - QB 52 RA RB 390 RA 71 Rec

JW - QB 25 RA RB 400 RA 64 Rec

BH - QB 42 RA RB 371 RA 66 Rec

MT - QB 68 RA RB 336 RA 65 Rec

In the 1st 3 years of Childress in MN the RBs averaged 437 RA 63 Rec

Josh Cribbs will account for 20 or more of those rushing attempts but I am not sure how the other RBs will fit in yet.

Little-to-none. Hardesty sucks and Jackson might be a little better because of his (limited) skillsets fit in the offense. I'm more interested in Adonis Thomas than either of the current backups.

 

[mastergg]

bad team + bad quarterbacks + playing baltimore & pittsburgh twice = recipe for disaster. 20% to be a success. 80% chance to be average or worse. i didnt even write down any cleveland players on my draft list last year besides hillis and i could have left him off completely for as bad as he was. this team will stink. this guy is going to go too high. let someone else get him.

 

[BusMan]

... he's a horse with power and speed. A virtual clone of Adrian Peterson. Jim Brown needs to clean his glasses... this kid is agile and powerful. And have you seen him as a receiver... sick, sick, sick. Oh and he block like a veteran. This kid will never leave the field. He's gonna get a ton of work this year. And now that McCoy is actively being traded there should be more dump passes from Weeden.

Here's some eye candy.

Here's a table from Football Outsiders that evaluates the 2011 offensive lines. Notice Cleveland in the second half of the table. Just trying to provide some context.A cursory bit of analysis indicates that their OL was decent, but their RBs were some of the worst in the league.

 

[MAC_32]

... he's a horse with power and speed. A virtual clone of Adrian Peterson. Jim Brown needs to clean his glasses... this kid is agile and powerful. And have you seen him as a receiver... sick, sick, sick. Oh and he block like a veteran. This kid will never leave the field. He's gonna get a ton of work this year. And now that McCoy is actively being traded there should be more dump passes from Weeden.

Here's some eye candy.

 

[gandalas]

... he's a horse with power and speed. A virtual clone of Adrian Peterson. Jim Brown needs to clean his glasses... this kid is agile and powerful. And have you seen him as a receiver... sick, sick, sick. Oh and he block like a veteran. This kid will never leave the field. He's gonna get a ton of work this year. And now that McCoy is actively being traded there should be more dump passes from Weeden.

Here's some eye candy.

It actually appears that the line on its own would have been a top-5 unit, but the back was pedestrian at best.From their table:

Line was 2nd best in preventing Stuffs (Percentage of runs where the running back is tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage)

Line was #13 in power situations (Percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown)

on the other hand, they were dragged down by #32 ranking in 2nd level yards (which I lay on the RB) and #31 in Open field ranking (again, on the RB).

Even if you go back to 2010 and Hillis' year, the Line was #4 in both of the first 2 categories, and #30/#24 in the last 2.

So if you put any stock into these numbers at all, it looks like the line is actually quite good at run blocking, but the RBs have been holding them back. We shall see if that bears fruit now that they have a top-5 draft pick in there.

 

[MAC_32]

So if you put any stock into these numbers at all, it looks like the line is actually quite good at run blocking, but the RBs have been holding them back. We shall see if that bears fruit now that they have a top-5 draft pick in there.

As someone who has painfully watched all of those plays, the product on the field matches the stats. The line played better as Thomas & Mack became more comfortable with Pinkston and Lauvao. Pinkston's play was significantly better the second half too. The offense realized just how awful we were at RT so there was more tight end help and designed plays away from that weak spot. Lauvao wasn't anything special, but he wasn't an achor as the others improved. With a significant improvement at RT I think he will be just fine on the interoir.This season will show just how bad the RB performance was last year and that it wasn't on the o line.

 

[Biabreakable]

Good stuff guys. I do see Brandon Jackson getting a handful of carries. Something like 40-100 RA and he is a capable receiver and alright blocker. I may be too low on passing attempts for my team projection right now but in the end I don't see shaving much off of my projection for Richardson.

Maybe 10-15 RA less than my previous 320-370 RA. I appreciate the variety of comments here.

 

[jurb26]

It actually appears that the line on its own would have been a top-5 unit, but the back was pedestrian at best.From their table:Line was 2nd best in preventing Stuffs (Percentage of runs where the running back is tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage)Line was #13 in power situations (Percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown)on the other hand, they were dragged down by #32 ranking in 2nd level yards (which I lay on the RB) and #31 in Open field ranking (again, on the RB).Even if you go back to 2010 and Hillis' year, the Line was #4 in both of the first 2 categories, and #30/#24 in the last 2.So if you put any stock into these numbers at all, it looks like the line is actually quite good at run blocking, but the RBs have been holding them back. We shall see if that bears fruit now that they have a top-5 draft pick in there.

I've been trying to tell people this all off-season. That table really puts things into context though. Clev has a very good Oline and it got better this year. The teams problem was 1st and foremost, it's awful QB play. Next it was it's awful RB play. Lastly, it was the awful WR play. I've never seen a NFL team so void of skill position talent in my life until the 2011 Browns.

 

[Exit 1]

I just started doing my research for the year....

Good lord, the magazines and on-line sites sweat this boy, Richardson! They think he's the bees knees! Most of them say she should go in the late first or second round. One magazine said he was the best back to enter the draft since Adrian Peterson!

Holy moly.

 

[Clifford]

Lemme put it this way: I think he will end his career being the best running back to wear a Browns uniform. And yes, I realize what that means.

 

[bengalbuck]

It actually appears that the line on its own would have been a top-5 unit, but the back was pedestrian at best.From their table:Line was 2nd best in preventing Stuffs (Percentage of runs where the running back is tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage)Line was #13 in power situations (Percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown)on the other hand, they were dragged down by #32 ranking in 2nd level yards (which I lay on the RB) and #31 in Open field ranking (again, on the RB).Even if you go back to 2010 and Hillis' year, the Line was #4 in both of the first 2 categories, and #30/#24 in the last 2.So if you put any stock into these numbers at all, it looks like the line is actually quite good at run blocking, but the RBs have been holding them back. We shall see if that bears fruit now that they have a top-5 draft pick in there.

I've been trying to tell people this all off-season. That table really puts things into context though. Clev has a very good Oline and it got better this year. The teams problem was 1st and foremost, it's awful QB play. Next it was it's awful RB play. Lastly, it was the awful WR play. I've never seen a NFL team so void of skill position talent in my life until the 2011 Browns.

Totally agree with you and I've been arguing the same this offseason. The Browns were the perfect landing spot for Richardson. Really looks like one of those situations where talent and opportunity really come together for a guy. There's always more risk with a guy in a new situation, so I definitely understand if people prefer to go a different way in the late 1st. But I think he's definitely a legit top 20 pick this year in pretty much all formats.

 

[LawFitz]

I love TRich, but there is no way I can take him late first/early second, where he's being projected to go this year (redraft). Just way too much hype for a rookie RB for my blood.

240 car, 4.5 YPC, 1080 rush, 7 TD

24 rec, 8.2 YPR, 197 rec, 1 TD

 

[lazyike]

you would have to think he can AT LEAST put up the same numbers hillis did 2 years ago. The biggest knock on Colt McCoy was his lack of a deep ball which should not be a problem at least not as big of a problem with Weeden. Little is a coming off his 1st nfl season after sitting out his final season in college so you had to figure he would be a little rusty as well as transitioning from RB to WR. All that said why can't richarson be a 1st round pick. Lynch is boardline 1st rd pick coming off a 1200 yard 12 TD 20 catch season. Richardson will catch the ball more than 20 times and do more with it after the catch and as far as not having break away speed I am pretty sure that did not slow down fred jackson and richardson is much faster than jackson. When you compare richardson to the other RBs getting drafted around the end of round 1 its hard not to take his upside.

Why not? You have to be more impressed with Richarsons' talent than Hillis's. Hillis in 2010: 1177 yds rushing 11 tds, 61 recepts 477 yds 2 tds. Are the 2012 Browns less talented than the 2010 Browns? I see no reason why Richardson can't match or improve on those numbers.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

Is it me or does the consensus 40ish catches that people are projecting for TR seem a bit high?

 

[Biabreakable]

Is it me or does the consensus 40ish catches that people are projecting for TR seem a bit high?

It is possible. But looking at the Vikings with Chester Taylor and Mewelde Moore both had over 40 catches in this offense when MM was healthy. The WRs are not great and both Jackson and Richardson are capable receivers. I believe they will use both frequently in the passing game.I think it is possible that Jackson could get more receptions than Richardson. However everything I have been reading about Richardson tells me that he is a very good blocker and receiver, so 40ish seems like a reasonable expectation after looking at the distribution of both the Browns recently and the Vikings with Childress.

 

[eoMMan]

Wow... there is a lot of hate... albeit its realistic criticism, but hate none the less.

The kid is pretty damn good. And don't forget boys and girls that a stud back can carry a team. Heck the crappy Seahawks made the postseason pretty much solely because of Marshawn Lynch. Richardson was the best player available for Cleveland, and his pass catching ability makes him a great threat for Cleveland's west coast system. The kid is a play maker, and look what a healthy Peyton Hillis did with that offense.

2010 - just 1177 yds, 11 td, 477 rec, 2 td -- And Hillis is a Full Back, who was promoted to RB because of all Denver's injuries. Just imagine what a No1 RB can do with that OLine and that defense when they aren't on the field 65% of the game.

I'm drafting him around pick 30 (in that range), but get this kid on your roster... he's a horse with power and speed. A virtual clone of Adrian Peterson. Jim Brown needs to clean his glasses... this kid is agile and powerful. And have you seen him as a receiver... sick, sick, sick. Oh and he block like a veteran. This kid will never leave the field. He's gonna get a ton of work this year. And now that McCoy is actively being traded there should be more dump passes from Weeden.

Here's some eye candy.

How many times? Just once?

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Lemme put it this way: I think he will end his career being the best running back to wear a Browns uniform.

...

 

[elguapo07]

Lemme put it this way: I think he will end his career being the best running back to wear a Browns uniform. And yes, I realize what that means.

Don't think that he ends up at the top of the list for Browns RB's but I think he ends up being Mike Pruitt(seriously) on steriods - with a higher ceiling and a longer prime.

 

[guavapure]

Assuming his knee is fully recovered and he's active for week 1, anyone starting him week 1 versus Philly? Home game for the Brownies, Chili going up against his old team.

The recent speculation that the Browns may ease Richardson in, and that Hardesty is healthy and looking decent, has me concerned that Richardson may not get a very heavy load from the get go.

 

[Biabreakable]

While I realize this is pretty late in the season, most peoples drafts are done now with the season about to start.

However I just wanted to say that my expectations for Richardson are a lot less now that he has missed all of preseason including practice and just now this week he is going to begin running outside the pool.

He is way behind schedule of my rosy optimism about him earlier on in the year when I thought he would practice and be healthy enough to start the season full strength.

So because of that I believe Brandon Jackson will get more carries until Richardson is ready, the team will likely throw more than past Vikings offenses that Childress was involved in. Although more ball control may be their long term and overall goal, they will not be able to execute this until Richardson is up to it.

Also this is the Cleveland Browns. Bad things happen here.

So all of that has my expectations of Richardson for 2012 greatly diminished. 220-270 carries @ 3.9ypc 858-1053 yards 6-10 TD 15-30 catches for 117-234 yards 0-3 TD. So 975-1287 total yards 6-13 TD and I expect most of those numbers to happen later in the season. Richardson if he does start slow (and I think he will) may be a good buy opportunity.

 

[jurb26]

I am starting Trent with confidence this week. Anyone else?

 

[GDogg]

I am starting Trent with confidence this week. Anyone else?

Me, too.Establishing a running game is the best way for them to keep what is expected to be a very weak defense off the field.

 

[Gr00vus]

I am starting Trent with confidence this week. Anyone else?

Me, too.Establishing a running game is the best way for them to keep what is expected to be a very weak defense off the field.

I'll be starting him, but not with complete confidence. Tough to be confident with the Browns keeping him under wraps up until game time.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

Lemme put it this way: I think he will end his career being the best running back to wear a Browns uniform. And yes, I realize what that means.

The best RB of all time. And one of the three best players to ever lace em up.Impossible. His surrounding team wont allow for that.

 

[Kboyd78]

He will be fine I heard ### this negative stuff when Peterson entered the league I stole him and rode him all the way to the championship that year. I'll start Trent against the eagles Sunday and not even look back.

 

[Clifford]

I am starting Trent with confidence this week. Anyone else?

In 2 leagues, in 1ahead of McGhee. Once they get a look at what this kid can do against real competition, they are not going to be able to pull him.

 

[Clifford]

Lemme put it this way: I think he will end his career being the best running back to wear a Browns uniform. And yes, I realize what that means.

The best RB of all time. And one of the three best players to ever lace em up.Impossible. His surrounding team wont allow for that.

When I do wild baseless speculation, I don't do it halfass.

 

[Banger]

Lemme put it this way: I think he will end his career being the best running back to wear a Browns uniform. And yes, I realize what that means.

The best RB of all time. And one of the three best players to ever lace em up.Impossible. His surrounding team wont allow for that.

You don't know what his surrounding talent will be for the next decade. Same thing could have been said for LT.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

Lemme put it this way: I think he will end his career being the best running back to wear a Browns uniform. And yes, I realize what that means.

The best RB of all time. And one of the three best players to ever lace em up.Impossible. His surrounding team wont allow for that.

You don't know what his surrounding talent will be for the next decade. Same thing could have been said for LT.

I know what it is right now. Impossible.

 

[DoubleG]

Lemme put it this way: I think he will end his career being the best running back to wear a Browns uniform. And yes, I realize what that means.

The best RB of all time. And one of the three best players to ever lace em up.Impossible. His surrounding team wont allow for that.

When I do wild baseless speculation, I don't do it halfass.

Definately not half.

 

[Biabreakable]

After 4 games Trent Richardson has 64 carries 222 yards 3.5 ypc 15 receptions 122 yards 8.1 ypc 4 total TDs after 4 games or 25% of total games played. If this production repeated itself for the following 12 games of the season EOY stats would be 256 carries 888 yards 3.5 ypc 60 receptions 486 yards 16 total TDs.

I think there are better days ahead for Richardson. He has shown his talent and passion to be great. He just needs to stay healthy and for the team to get better around him. The receptions and TDs are saving his value right now, I think better yardage on average will come in games ahead. It would be pretty hard for the offense to get worse at this point wouldn't it? At least one Ravens game is out of the way now.