Trent Richardson, RB, Cleveland Browns (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2012 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Trent Richardson, RB, Cleveland Browns

Player Page Link: Trent Richardson Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[Topes]

350-1500-10

28-200-2

He's the best.

 

[LarryAllen'sJockstrap]

I see many parallels to LT's rookie season. Early round draft pick QB (Weeden/Brees), bad offense, okay defense, bad WRs and a decent but not great O-line.

300 Carries

4.0 YPC

1200 YDS Rushing

10 TDs

45 Catches

300 YDS Receiving

3 TDs

Probably finishes in the RB8-12 range and has a bright future. Could be tough sledding this season though. Hopefully for CLE Weeden is the real deal, if not we'll be talking about them drafting another QB in the early first soon.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

I like Richardson's talent and think he's on par with anyone outside of Peterson the past ten years or so. That said, he's stepping into a pretty horrid situation. Cleveland's RBs averaged 3.7 yards-per-carry (31st) and ran for only 4 TDs (dead last) last year. The rookie QB will likely lead to even more stacking the box by opposing defenses, and expecting any rookie RB to step right in as a blocker / receiver in a WCO is asking a bit much. Richardson's value in dynasty is obviously huge, but I think he'll be over-drafted in redrafts this year.

300 carries for 1200 yards, 30 catches for 200, 8 total TDs -- so fine as a RB2, but I think he'll be going as a first round RB1 due to at least one guy in every league sipping too much rookie kool aid.

 

[JoeSteeler]

Rushing: 1160-8

Rec: 40-325-1

 

[ty247]

Rushing: 1160-8Rec: 40-325-1

I'm thinking more along these lines. I'm with you joe. I'm thinking 285 carries at 4.1 ypc.. 1168 yards. Maybe 10 touchdowns.Probably 35 receptions at 7.5 ypr for 262 yards roughly.This is if he doesn't get injured.. and then get a Cleveland Staph Infection

 

[TheDirtyWord]

In early mocks, what I’ve seen is a rookie RB go earlier than I’ve ever seen a rookie RB go before in FF. I remember being able to snag LaDainian Tomlinson in the 5th round when he was a rookie. Ryan Matthews was the first rookie RB to go significantly higher than I would have thought 2 years ago when he was essentially a consensus early-mid 2nd rounder. But Richardson seems to have ventured into late 1st round territory. It’s funny how the RB position in fantasy has more now to do with situation than it does track record.

I won’t be drafting Richardson although I’m not forecasting doom for those that do. But there are a few things that concern me here.

1) While I agree that the lack of relative workload in college will do Richardson well during his NFL career (540 career carries), can he assume a 300 type carry work load his rookie year getting hit by NFL DE’s & LB’s? I’m not saying he can’t, but rookie RB’s have in the past struggled with wearing down or durability as rookies. Adrian Peterson, probably the most prolific rookie RB in the last 10 years, saw his production dip dramatically during the last 6 games of his rookie season (80/305/4).

2) If I’m an opposing defense, why am I changing my philosophy of making the Browns QB beat me versus their stud RB? Even when Peyton Hillis had his breakout year in 2010, if you take out the 68 yard run from the punter…the Browns averaged less than 100 rushing yards/game. IMO, the Browns were willing to pound away with Hillis since he cost next to nothing but at the same time, with sub-par QB play…I’m still making that position beat me.

3) The Browns had absolutely no production from a #2 RB in 2010 (Mike Bell, Jerome Harrison & Josh Cribbs combined for a 82/218/0 line). They seem like they like their options here better now in Montario Hardesty/Brandon Jackson. Will Richardson get 75% of the RB workload?

4) Call me crazy, but when Jim Brown has something to say about the RB position…I’m going to at least pay attention. And I kind of thought the same thing to be honest. Richardson is more ‘bull in the china shop’ than gazelle. I’ve heard someone refer to his game as Marshawn Lynch-esque and I would agree with this assessment. Adrian Peterson runs hard, but he also has home run speed. Richardson from my view does not (Disclaimer: I’m not a professional scout!)

The Browns do have studs at OT & C, so with a runner the caliber of Richardson, it is quite possible that he can still be quite productive. But I do think at some point in 2012, the wear and tear will simply bring whatever level of production he’s playing at during the early part of the season down. And since for the most part, he’s being drafted as an RB1, I wouldn’t feel comfortable in doing this knowing that it's rare for a rookie to have anything left in the tank come Weeks 14-16. I don’t think there is any doubt that he’s a 3-down RB. But I do think you need to draw a distinction between being a 3-down RB and an all-down RB. IMO, he’s not yet an all-down RB no matter what workload the Browns give him.

Prediction: 256 Rushes, 1064 Rushing Yards, 8 TD’s, 42 Receptions 265 Receiving Yards, 1 TD.

 

[steelcityman]

Taking him is asking for a disaster. Cleveland is awful. They have no WR threats, defenses will put 9 in the box on first down. I see him averaging about 3.0 ypc. Wearing down by the end of the season from massive beat downs. And cleveland will be behind, a lot, so he wont get more than 8 carries in the second half of a lot of games. This is no slight on Richardson himself, if he was a Packer or Lion for instance, he would be legit stat machine, its just that he has been drafted by the toilet that is Cleveland. Factor in Steelers, Ravens and a better Cincy for 6 games, and I cant see him being a great FFL force. If you are not in a keeper league, stay away from him. Let someone else reach for the hot rookie pick, and take a proven player on a decent team.

...thats just my opinion.

 

[Therapist16]

you would have to think he can AT LEAST put up the same numbers hillis did 2 years ago. The biggest knock on Colt McCoy was his lack of a deep ball which should not be a problem at least not as big of a problem with Weeden. Little is a coming off his 1st nfl season after sitting out his final season in college so you had to figure he would be a little rusty as well as transitioning from RB to WR. All that said why can't richarson be a 1st round pick. Lynch is boardline 1st rd pick coming off a 1200 yard 12 TD 20 catch season. Richardson will catch the ball more than 20 times and do more with it after the catch and as far as not having break away speed I am pretty sure that did not slow down fred jackson and richardson is much faster than jackson. When you compare richardson to the other RBs getting drafted around the end of round 1 its hard not to take his upside.

 

[Chase Stuart]

In early mocks, what I’ve seen is a rookie RB go earlier than I’ve ever seen a rookie RB go before in FF. I remember being able to snag LaDainian Tomlinson in the 5th round when he was a rookie. Ryan Matthews was the first rookie RB to go significantly higher than I would have thought 2 years ago when he was essentially a consensus early-mid 2nd rounder. But Richardson seems to have ventured into late 1st round territory. It’s funny how the RB position in fantasy has more now to do with situation than it does track record.

Ricky was a first round RB in fantasy drafts and a top-five pick in dynasty leagues. There's actually a good bit of comparisons between the two, now that I think of it.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Ricky was a first round RB in fantasy drafts ...

Yes. Ricky Williams and Edgerrin James were both generally selected around the late-first/early-second turn as rookies; Reggie Bush and Ryan Mathews were generally drafted in the second round; Michael Bennett was generally drafted in the third round.

 

[fightingillini]

Richardson will be the bellcow on an offense that will likely struggle putting up points. Hype is pretty high, and I think someone will value him more than me.

290 car, 1130 yds, 7 TD

30 rec, 200 yds, 1 TD

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

1) While I agree that the lack of relative workload in college will do Richardson well during his NFL career (540 career carries), can he assume a 300 type carry work load his rookie year getting hit by NFL DE’s & LB’s? I’m not saying he can’t, but rookie RB’s have in the past struggled with wearing down or durability as rookies. Adrian Peterson, probably the most prolific rookie RB in the last 10 years, saw his production dip dramatically during the last 6 games of his rookie season (80/305/4).

Peterson had a knee injury in his rookie year, his downturn in production had nothing to do with hitting any wall.

3) The Browns had absolutely no production from a #2 RB in 2010 (Mike Bell, Jerome Harrison & Josh Cribbs combined for a 82/218/0 line). They seem like they like their options here better now in Montario Hardesty/Brandon Jackson. Will Richardson get 75% of the RB workload?

Brandon Jackson was pretty lame before he got injured, no reason to think he will affect Richardson's workload. Hardesty has done nothing so far, has been injured, has been reported to still have a hitch in his step, and had a reporter speculate that he could be on the roster bubble. Hard to see him as a playing time threat either. SOMEBODY has to tote the rock besides Richardson, but these two guys don't seem to be much of a threat.

I'm not sure how studly Richardson will or will not be, but he will certainly get the opportunity (workload) to show us.

 

[drater]

Richardson and Ingram had almost identical production at Alabama, both their feature back seasons and Richardson's Jr year when Ingram got hurt. Since Alabama (and the SEC) are as close as we get to a minor league, I'm going to predict similar pro production, only without the injuries and facing 8 in the box instead of 6.

285-1150-6, 20-165-1

 

[Bayhawks]

The Browns didn't trade up to get Richardson to not utilize him.

I see 325+ touches for him this year.

300 carries, 1275 rush yards, 10 rush TDs, 35 rec, 275 rec yards, 2 TD.

Top-10 RB.

 

[Sabertooth]

As much as I want to avoid the hype train because of being burned last year by Ingram, I can't. Richardson is my #4 back in dynasty. Only Foster, Rice, and McCoy tower over him. With all of the question marks surrounding the rest of the pack, I can't slide him down further than that. I have him just a tick above Ryan Mathews but I vacillate on that. Dead heat. As for this season alone in a redraft, we'll he's one of a select group already...the healthy bellcows.

If he stays healthy, I see him bounding the ball early, often, and effectively. I do not think Clevelands offense will be able to give him opportunites at the stripe like San Diego, Dallas, or Chicago. So that will limit his scores.

360 carries

1450 yards

45 catches

400 yards

7 touchdowns

 

[zilladog]

There is absolutely no way he gets less than 300 carries in 2012 unless he suffers injury. The offends in Cleveland can now officially be called "the TRich show", and is et up to be that way for the foreseeable future. They aren't going to become a prolific passing offense any time soon, although I think Weeden, down the road, can open up the offense to occasional big plays downfield, taking advantage of 9+ defenders in the box. Weeden is at least going to be capable of that much. I can see a lot of 07 Derrick Anderson in him, only more accurate. This is really going to be the crux of how Cleveland will try and win games over the next few years. I think Weeden will be a very capable play action - downfield QB and obviously that is a perfect complement to the down-your-throat running attack TRich will provide.

Yes, he's a rookie. We all know how rookies can let us down year after year. Richardson certainly wont be stamping his ticket to the hall of fame in year 1 either. Rookies struggles are inevitable. HOWEVER, he does have one very rare attribute going for him that is unique to him and that's his muscle mass and sheer bulk compared to his size. He's an absolute physical freak of nature. His workout ethic is already famous. This alone may help keep him upright and able to deliver the pain much longer than rookies of the past.

320 carries, 1300 yds, 27 rec, 270 yds, 9 total td's.

 

[gianmarco]

taking advantage of 9+ defenders in the box.

What?

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

taking advantage of 9+ defenders in the box.

What?

He's thinking High School football

 

[Grahamburn]

This offense is transitioning to a rookie QB (or sticking with Colt McCoy, I don't know which is worse) with very little talent at the WR position. Richardson is immediately Cleveland's best offensive player, and all of the defensive eyes will be on him.

The Browns have averaged 4.0 and 3.7 yards per carry in the last two seasons respectively for total yardages on the ground of 1,646 and 1,531 as a team. I can see Trent Richardson making them a little better and being about 70% of Cleveland's entire rushing offense, which I would project to be right around 1,700 yards.

290 carries at 4.1 per carry is 1,189 yards. 30 receptions at 6.9 per is 207 yards. 7 total TDs.

 

[lbouchard]

taking advantage of 9+ defenders in the box.

What?

Didn't the Steelers use 9 defenders in the box against Tebow?

 

[nickdib]

I see him averaging about 3.0 ypc.

You think he'll be just as bad as Hardesty and worse than Ogbonnaya? No way. As for my projection, i'll go with320-1280-8 45- 400-2

 

[Sabertooth]

Let's look at what Cedric Benson and the Bengals were able to do on the ground last season. Lots of situational similarities (same division and weather, rookie ginger QBs, nothing much expected of either team, similar offensive lines levels) and obviously no two situations are completely alike but there are some common factors here.

273 carries for 1067 yards. 6 touchdowns

15 catches for 82 yards, 0 touchdowns

That has to be his floor. I think his catches easily double that.

So his floor for me is

Floor:

275 carries for 1075 yards, 6 touchdowns

30 catches for 175 yards, 1 touchdown

That's pretty solid for a floor. Tons of factors will come into play but I'm ok with that starting for me. That's right on the cusp of low end RB1 numbers. These numbers are close to what SJax managed last year on a team with no wideouts and inexperienced QB play. I'll take it.

His ceiling is probably higher thanPeyton Hillis 2010

Ceiling:

270 carries for 1177, 11 touchdowns

61 catches for 477, 2 touchdowns

I'm comfortable with him falling in those ranges if healthy. I'm bullish on him being a more skilled than Hillis right now so he may very well exceed those numbers. I think his probability of exceeding that ceiling is higher than the probability of him dropping below his floor.

 

[gianmarco]

taking advantage of 9+ defenders in the box.

What?

Didn't the Steelers use 9 defenders in the box against Tebow?

You're asking a question about a one time event and you're not even sure if that happened. The statement was implying they would face 9+ defenders in the box on more than one occasion or even on a regular basis. And what's the + in there for? 10 or 11 in the box is an option?

 

[IHEARTFF]

Let's look at what Cedric Benson and the Bengals were able to do on the ground last season. Lots of situational similarities (same division and weather, rookie ginger QBs, nothing much expected of either team, similar offensive lines levels) and obviously no two situations are completely alike but there are some common factors here.

273 carries for 1067 yards. 6 touchdowns

15 catches for 82 yards, 0 touchdowns

That has to be his floor. I think his catches easily double that.

So his floor for me is

Floor:

275 carries for 1075 yards, 6 touchdowns

30 catches for 175 yards, 1 touchdown

That's pretty solid for a floor. Tons of factors will come into play but I'm ok with that starting for me. That's right on the cusp of low end RB1 numbers. These numbers are close to what SJax managed last year on a team with no wideouts and inexperienced QB play. I'll take it.

His ceiling is probably higher thanPeyton Hillis 2010

Ceiling:

270 carries for 1177, 11 touchdowns

61 catches for 477, 2 touchdowns

I'm comfortable with him falling in those ranges if healthy. I'm bullish on him being a more skilled than Hillis right now so he may very well exceed those numbers. I think his probability of exceeding that ceiling is higher than the probability of him dropping below his floor.

I don't think floor and ceiling mean what you think they mean.

 

[We Tigers]

Pretty risky at his current ADP, I think. He's an excellent runner, but can one excellent runner revitalize a very poor rushing offense?

Everyone pointing at workload is right to say he'll see a ton of work--at least 250 carries, probably a better shot at 300 than most other backs. I'm going to reserve my final thoughts until preseason simply because I want to see him against even a 3/4 speed NFL front before deciding if those 300 possible carries are going to get him 1100 yards or 1400 yards.

Force me to make a call now, and I'll say 280 carries for around 1100 yards, another 250 receiving, and 7 TDs. A workhorse, but someone I'd be more comfortable taking late 2nd/early 3rd than late 1st.

 

[Sabertooth]

Let's look at what Cedric Benson and the Bengals were able to do on the ground last season. Lots of situational similarities (same division and weather, rookie ginger QBs, nothing much expected of either team, similar offensive lines levels) and obviously no two situations are completely alike but there are some common factors here.

273 carries for 1067 yards. 6 touchdowns

15 catches for 82 yards, 0 touchdowns

That has to be his floor. I think his catches easily double that.

So his floor for me is

Floor:

275 carries for 1075 yards, 6 touchdowns

30 catches for 175 yards, 1 touchdown

That's pretty solid for a floor. Tons of factors will come into play but I'm ok with that starting for me. That's right on the cusp of low end RB1 numbers. These numbers are close to what SJax managed last year on a team with no wideouts and inexperienced QB play. I'll take it.

His ceiling is probably higher thanPeyton Hillis 2010

Ceiling:

270 carries for 1177, 11 touchdowns

61 catches for 477, 2 touchdowns

I'm comfortable with him falling in those ranges if healthy. I'm bullish on him being a more skilled than Hillis right now so he may very well exceed those numbers. I think his probability of exceeding that ceiling is higher than the probability of him dropping below his floor.

I don't think floor and ceiling mean what you think they mean.

I was going off what players actually did. His floor is 0. His ceiling is 3000 yards. Better?

 

[Sabertooth]

Pretty risky at his current ADP, I think. He's an excellent runner, but can one excellent runner revitalize a very poor rushing offense?Everyone pointing at workload is right to say he'll see a ton of work--at least 250 carries, probably a better shot at 300 than most other backs. I'm going to reserve my final thoughts until preseason simply because I want to see him against even a 3/4 speed NFL front before deciding if those 300 possible carries are going to get him 1100 yards or 1400 yards.Force me to make a call now, and I'll say 280 carries for around 1100 yards, another 250 receiving, and 7 TDs. A workhorse, but someone I'd be more comfortable taking late 2nd/early 3rd than late 1st.

They did fine with Hillis. Not so good without him, so yeah I'd say one player can revitalizing a team's rushing stats.

 

[We Tigers]

Fine, fine. "Can this one player revitalize this team's rushing stats?" Hillis was great, but didn't do much under one year of Shurmur. Chilly also wasn't OC for Hillis since he was just hired. Those two coaches make this is a considerably different team than the Hillis squad of 2010, so I'm not sure you can draw that close a comparison.

 

[Sabertooth]

Fine, fine. "Can this one player revitalize this team's rushing stats?" Hillis was great, but didn't do much under one year of Shurmur. Chilly also wasn't OC for Hillis since he was just hired. Those two coaches make this is a considerably different team than the Hillis squad of 2010, so I'm not sure you can draw that close a comparison.

True and I agree but that is what we are stuck with. We have to make guesses. Chilly is a good coordinator who lacks the gravitas to be a head coach. I think the offense works fine. Adrian Peterson is the real comparison here though as Chilly was a big part of his career to date. One thing that always frustrated though was Chilly's stubbornly leaving ADP on the sidelines when near the stripe or in critical situations in favor of others like Mewelde Moore and Chester Taylor. Something to consider with Richardson. Hardesty is a big kid who might be used to take that abuse down deep inside the 5. I actually like the Browns' offensive line a bit and think they can be solid if unspectacular. I am risk averse with high pick and as crazy as it sounds to type this, Richardson is one of the safer picks and has a decent floor and spectacular ceiling. Guys like Jamaal Charles are talented but in equally confusing situations with better alternatives than Richardson.

 

[We Tigers]

One thing I'll definitely grant is that Richardson has no question marks about how healed up he is from injury the way that a number of backs including Charles, McFadden, Forte, etc. may. At a certain point, fresh legs and ligaments that haven't been previously exploded become risk mitigators all on their own.

 

[jurb26]

I actually like the Browns' offensive line a bit and think they can be solid if unspectacular.

The Brown's offenseive line is very good. I'm not sure where this perception of them being average or bellow avearege comes from. They are very good. One of the best in the NFL IMO. It's the other positions on offense that have sucked. They instantly upgraded 2 of them in this draft with Richardson and Weeden. The Clev offense should be better. The only real question is how much better?

 

[Coeur de Lion]

I actually like the Browns' offensive line a bit and think they can be solid if unspectacular.

The Brown's offenseive line is very good. I'm not sure where this perception of them being average or bellow avearege comes from. They are very good. One of the best in the NFL IMO. It's the other positions on offense that have sucked. They instantly upgraded 2 of them in this draft with Richardson and Weeden. The Clev offense should be better. The only real question is how much better?

The perception that they have a below-average o-line comes from ranking 20th and 28th the past two years in rushing yards and 21st and 31st in rushing average. They might improve some, but saying that they are among the best in the NFL is a wild exaggeration. Average is over-generous given their on field performance.

 

[ty247]

I actually like the Browns' offensive line a bit and think they can be solid if unspectacular.

The Brown's offenseive line is very good. I'm not sure where this perception of them being average or bellow avearege comes from. They are very good. One of the best in the NFL IMO. It's the other positions on offense that have sucked. They instantly upgraded 2 of them in this draft with Richardson and Weeden. The Clev offense should be better. The only real question is how much better?

The perception that they have a below-average o-line comes from ranking 20th and 28th the past two years in rushing yards and 21st and 31st in rushing average. They might improve some, but saying that they are among the best in the NFL is a wild exaggeration. Average is over-generous given their on field performance.

A big part of this is the injuries/decline of Steinbach the last few years.I'm not sure of their depth behind him, so I can't comment otherwise, but Steinbach is now gone.Cleveland still isn't good. The Steelers, Ravens and Bengals are all good at stopping the run. Rumours of the Steelers and Ravens defensive decline have been exagerated. Things are really going to fall on how quickly and if, Weeden can play and play at a high level in order to remove that 8th and 9th guy from the box.. otherwise you're going to have a young Steven Jackson playing on the Browns. (Equating to SJax's situation in St.Louis the last 5 or so years)

 

[IHEARTFF]

I was going off what players actually did. His floor is 0. His ceiling is 3000 yards. Better?

Eh, I guess your total yards from scrimmage is closer to a floor/ceiling. I was looking primarily at your rushing yards prediction of 1075-1175.

 

[jurb26]

I actually like the Browns' offensive line a bit and think they can be solid if unspectacular.

The Brown's offenseive line is very good. I'm not sure where this perception of them being average or bellow avearege comes from. They are very good. One of the best in the NFL IMO. It's the other positions on offense that have sucked. They instantly upgraded 2 of them in this draft with Richardson and Weeden. The Clev offense should be better. The only real question is how much better?

The perception that they have a below-average o-line comes from ranking 20th and 28th the past two years in rushing yards and 21st and 31st in rushing average. They might improve some, but saying that they are among the best in the NFL is a wild exaggeration. Average is over-generous given their on field performance.

Clev ranked 20th in rushing yds in 2010 because they attempted the 21st ranked amount of rushes. They ran for an average of 4.0 per carry which ranked them 19th and also scored 13 TDs on the ground ranking them 12th. The reason they didn't get many yds was because they didn't have as many attempts as other teams and their offense as a whole sucked thanks largely to the passing game. Last season they were much worse, mainly because they lost their lead back for a great deal of the season (insert Richardson) and because the passing game, remarkable got worse. They had a team passer rating of 75 in 2010, ranking them 27th with an average per attempt of 6.7 ranking them 21st in 2010. They followed that up last year with a passer rating of 72.8, ranking them 29th with an average per attempt of 5.8 ranking them 31st in 2011. These are pathetic results. The spike in passing attempts Clev had in 2011 from 2010 was a pretty clear indication of their lack of confidence in their RBs once Hillis went down. They went from 478 passing attempts in 2010 to 570 in 2012. The problem in Clev the past 2 years has been very clear, QB play and a lack of playmakers. Clev proved they could sustain a solid running game with just an average RB in 2010, Hillis. Hillis and Clev's running game were successful for only one reason, it's Oline. Their passing game has been one of the worst in the NFL for 2 years running and the level of success they managed the past 2 seasons rushing the ball is pretty remarkable given the circumstances IMO. Every indication points to 2012 being more like 2010, not 2011. Richardson will fill in the role of Hillis more than adequately. I think most everyone would be shocked if he wasn't an improvement. Weeden, though a rookie, should still be able to provide at least a mild upgrade to the Clev passing attack. Clev still lacks weapons on the outside, but that didn't stop them from producing in 2010 with a lesser back and lesser counterparts.The people who say this unit isn't very good more than likely haven't watched any of their games the past few years and simply look at the stat line. I hate Clev, I'm a Steeler fan, but I have to say their Oline can get the job done.

 

[ty247]

I actually like the Browns' offensive line a bit and think they can be solid if unspectacular.

The Brown's offenseive line is very good. I'm not sure where this perception of them being average or bellow avearege comes from. They are very good. One of the best in the NFL IMO. It's the other positions on offense that have sucked. They instantly upgraded 2 of them in this draft with Richardson and Weeden. The Clev offense should be better. The only real question is how much better?

The perception that they have a below-average o-line comes from ranking 20th and 28th the past two years in rushing yards and 21st and 31st in rushing average. They might improve some, but saying that they are among the best in the NFL is a wild exaggeration. Average is over-generous given their on field performance.

Clev ranked 20th in rushing yds in 2010 because they attempted the 21st ranked amount of rushes. They ran for an average of 4.0 per carry which ranked them 19th and also scored 13 TDs on the ground ranking them 12th. The reason they didn't get many yds was because they didn't have as many attempts as other teams and their offense as a whole sucked thanks largely to the passing game. Last season they were much worse, mainly because they lost their lead back for a great deal of the season (insert Richardson) and because the passing game, remarkable got worse. They had a team passer rating of 75 in 2010, ranking them 27th with an average per attempt of 6.7 ranking them 21st in 2010. They followed that up last year with a passer rating of 72.8, ranking them 29th with an average per attempt of 5.8 ranking them 31st in 2011. These are pathetic results. The spike in passing attempts Clev had in 2011 from 2010 was a pretty clear indication of their lack of confidence in their RBs once Hillis went down. They went from 478 passing attempts in 2010 to 570 in 2012. The problem in Clev the past 2 years has been very clear, QB play and a lack of playmakers. Clev proved they could sustain a solid running game with just an average RB in 2010, Hillis. Hillis and Clev's running game were successful for only one reason, it's Oline. Their passing game has been one of the worst in the NFL for 2 years running and the level of success they managed the past 2 seasons rushing the ball is pretty remarkable given the circumstances IMO. Every indication points to 2012 being more like 2010, not 2011. Richardson will fill in the role of Hillis more than adequately. I think most everyone would be shocked if he wasn't an improvement. Weeden, though a rookie, should still be able to provide at least a mild upgrade to the Clev passing attack. Clev still lacks weapons on the outside, but that didn't stop them from producing in 2010 with a lesser back and lesser counterparts.The people who say this unit isn't very good more than likely haven't watched any of their games the past few years and simply look at the stat line. I hate Clev, I'm a Steeler fan, but I have to say their Oline can get the job done.

Isn't the bigger question then, whether they can improve the passing game to protect Richardson?Their receiving core certainly hasn't improved much at all. Whether their QB situation has, is yet to be seen.

 

[zilladog]

taking advantage of 9+ defenders in the box.

What?

Didn't the Steelers use 9 defenders in the box against Tebow?

You're asking a question about a one time event and you're not even sure if that happened. The statement was implying they would face 9+ defenders in the box on more than one occasion or even on a regular basis. And what's the + in there for? 10 or 11 in the box is an option?

Guys, seriously....It was a typo. They happen. the 8 is next to the 9 on the keyboard. The point of the post remains exactly the same though.

 

[FF Ninja]

you would have to think he can AT LEAST put up the same numbers hillis did 2 years ago.

Nope.These people (more than 1, not picking on kraepple16) calling for Hillis' 2010 production to be Richardson's floor are hilarious. Hillis had some really good numbers that year (4.4 ypc + 61 rec) with 13 total TDs. He was the #2 scoring RB that year, right? There is no guarantee they'll be able to replicate that kind of offense. If they could, they'd have done it in 2011. With a rookie QB and still not much threat at WR/TE, I think it'll be tough sledding for anyone running the ball in Cleveland. Think back to 2003 when Ricky Williams was in his prime. Even a beast like Ricky couldn't carry that offense (3.5 ypc, 1 TD per 44.2 touches). The SP gets blinded by shiny new rookies. I won't have Richardson on a single team this year. Even in dynasty he isn't very exciting. It is more likely that this offense struggles in 2013 than becomes above average. There's even a decent chance he just doesn't pan out as a starting NFL RB. Given all the risks surrounding rookies on bad teams yet all the hype, they are almost always more valuable as a trade commodity. There is the rare guy that is the exception and every year the masses think THIS rookie is going to be it. Maybe Richardson is, but chances are slim. Not many teams are as dedicated to the run as the 2003 Miami Dolphins. When the Browns are down 2 scores at halftime, Richardson won't see 15 carries in the last two quarters. I think he'll be lucky to see 300 carries and anything over 4.2 ypc is wishful thinking. "WHAT?! BUT HILLIS PUT UP 4.4 AND HE WAS A SCRUB!!" I think Hillis is a very good runner with a lot of power and YAC ability who was genuinely injured last year and on a terrible offense. Hillis' style might shorten his career but Richardson would be doing very well to one day be as good of an overall runningback as Hillis.17 carries per game x 16 games = 272 carries x 4.0 ypc = 1088 yards 5 TD, 40 rec x 7 ypr = 280 yds 0 TD(keep in mind the whole team only had 4 rushing TD last year on 337 carries)

 

[Bayhawks]

you would have to think he can AT LEAST put up the same numbers hillis did 2 years ago.

Nope.These people (more than 1, not picking on kraepple16) calling for Hillis' 2010 production to be Richardson's floor are hilarious. Hillis had some really good numbers that year (4.4 ypc + 61 rec) with 13 total TDs. He was the #2 scoring RB that year, right? There is no guarantee they'll be able to replicate that kind of offense. If they could, they'd have done it in 2011. With a rookie QB and still not much threat at WR/TE, I think it'll be tough sledding for anyone running the ball in Cleveland. Think back to 2003 when Ricky Williams was in his prime. Even a beast like Ricky couldn't carry that offense (3.5 ypc, 1 TD per 44.2 touches). The SP gets blinded by shiny new rookies. I won't have Richardson on a single team this year. Even in dynasty he isn't very exciting. It is more likely that this offense struggles in 2013 than becomes above average. There's even a decent chance he just doesn't pan out as a starting NFL RB. Given all the risks surrounding rookies on bad teams yet all the hype, they are almost always more valuable as a trade commodity. There is the rare guy that is the exception and every year the masses think THIS rookie is going to be it. Maybe Richardson is, but chances are slim. Not many teams are as dedicated to the run as the 2003 Miami Dolphins. When the Browns are down 2 scores at halftime, Richardson won't see 15 carries in the last two quarters. I think he'll be lucky to see 300 carries and anything over 4.2 ypc is wishful thinking. "WHAT?! BUT HILLIS PUT UP 4.4 AND HE WAS A SCRUB!!" I think Hillis is a very good runner with a lot of power and YAC ability who was genuinely injured last year and on a terrible offense. Hillis' style might shorten his career but Richardson would be doing very well to one day be as good of an overall runningback as Hillis.

17 carries per game x 16 games = 272 carries x 4.0 ypc = 1088 yards 5 TD, 40 rec x 7 ypr = 280 yds 0 TD

(keep in mind the whole team only had 4 rushing TD last year on 337 carries)

Here's the reason I think so many people are high on Richardson. You referenced 2003 when Williams only averaged 3.5 YPC and 1 TD/44 touches. Those poor numbers made him a top-10 RB that year (and would have made him a top-5 RB last year). Williams was THE RB in Miami in 2003, just as many people expect Richardson to be in Cleveland in 2012. And even with poor averages, you can put up good FF numbers, due to a high quantity of touches.

Furthermore, in 2003, 13 RBs had over 300 carries, while in 2011, only two did. A bell-cow RB is even more valuable in the current day (FF-speaking, of course).

If Richardson is THE RB in Cleveland in 2012, and gets 300 carries (plus some receptions), he will be a valuable RB, even if his YPC, TD rate, etc aren't impressive, because of his number of touches.

 

[FF Ninja]

In 2003 Ricky Williams had 392 rushes, 50 receptions, and 10 total TDs. I'll be shocked if Richardson hits any of those 3 numbers, much less all of them.

I get the value of a bell cow RB, believe me, but we're talking about a rookie AND a horrible offense. It is not uncommon for talented RBs to stumble a bit their rookie year before reaching their potential. A first round pick is just too steep for Richardson in my opinion.

 

[Paul Brown]

AP rushed for 1,300+ yards and 12 TDs his rookie season with Tavaris Jackson at QB and Robert Ferguson and Bernard Berrian as the main WRs. Had an additional 19 catches for 268 yards and 1 TD.

1,500+ total yards and 10+ TDs is attainable for Richardson

this easily makes him a top 10 RB

 

[Chase Stuart]

AP rushed for 1,300+ yards and 12 TDs his rookie season with Tavaris Jackson at QB and Robert Ferguson and Bernard Berrian as the main WRs. Had an additional 19 catches for 268 yards and 1 TD.1,500+ total yards and 10+ TDs is attainable for Richardsonthis easily makes him a top 10 RB

AP had Bryant McKniie, Steve Hutchinson and Matt Birk in their primes, and was going to a team that had produced a 1200 yard rusher the year before.

 

[FF Ninja]

AP rushed for 1,300+ yards and 12 TDs his rookie season with Tavaris Jackson at QB and Robert Ferguson and Bernard Berrian as the main WRs. Had an additional 19 catches for 268 yards and 1 TD.1,500+ total yards and 10+ TDs is attainable for Richardsonthis easily makes him a top 10 RB

Yes, AP put up 5.6 ypc and 1 TD per 20 carries while Chester Taylor put up 5.4 ypc and 1 TD per 22 carries. I'm not saying AP is not talented, but I feel like there was more at play there than just his raw talent. I seriously doubt he would've put those numbers up playing for the 2012 Browns.

 

[jurb26]

AP rushed for 1,300+ yards and 12 TDs his rookie season with Tavaris Jackson at QB and Robert Ferguson and Bernard Berrian as the main WRs. Had an additional 19 catches for 268 yards and 1 TD.1,500+ total yards and 10+ TDs is attainable for Richardsonthis easily makes him a top 10 RB

AP had Bryant McKniie, Steve Hutchinson and Matt Birk in their primes, and was going to a team that had produced a 1200 yard rusher the year before.

Joe Thomas is perhaps the best LT in the NFL right now. I'd argue he's better than McKinnie ever was. Mack is also very good and Pinkston played a lot better as the season went on. On top of that Clev. drafted Mitchell Schwartz particularly for his run blocking. This unit is young and very capable.Also, Clev is only 2 years removed from a 1177 yd. season from a far more pedestrian than either AP or Richardson, Hillis.

 

[Sabertooth]

Let's say we put Arian Foster or Ryan Mathews in Cleveland. What would predictions be?

 

[We Tigers]

AP rushed for 1,300+ yards and 12 TDs his rookie season with Tavaris Jackson at QB and Robert Ferguson and Bernard Berrian as the main WRs. Had an additional 19 catches for 268 yards and 1 TD.

1,500+ total yards and 10+ TDs is attainable for Richardson

this easily makes him a top 10 RB

AP had Bryant McKniie, Steve Hutchinson and Matt Birk in their primes, and was going to a team that had produced a 1200 yard rusher the year before.

By contrast: all of Cleveland's RBs combined barely broke 1200 yards in 2012. They totaled just 1209 yards.Hillis - 587

Ogbonnaya - 334

Hardesty - 266

FBs and scrubs - 22

A great reason to draft an RB, but perhaps also a reason to temper expectations.

 

[Bayhawks]

In 2003 Ricky Williams had 392 rushes, 50 receptions, and 10 total TDs. I'll be shocked if Richardson hits any of those 3 numbers, much less all of them.

I get the value of a bell cow RB, believe me, but we're talking about a rookie AND a horrible offense. It is not uncommon for talented RBs to stumble a bit their rookie year before reaching their potential. A first round pick is just too steep for Richardson in my opinion.

That's your opinion, and if you believe that Richardson isn't going to get the lion's share of carries in Cleveland, it's justified. But recent history suggests that if he is "the man" in Cleveland, he has a good shot at being worthy of a 1st round pick.In the last 15 years, 44 RBs have been drafted in the 1st round. But all the situations they were drafted into weren’t the same, nor were their situations comparable to the situation Richardson is likely to find himself in. We need to look at RBs who were widely regarded as elite and drafted by bad teams, and who would be the bell-cow RBs for their team, in their rookie year. So let's limit those 1st round RBs to RBs who were drafted with a top-10 pick and who got 60% of their teams RB touches (carries and receptions) for their team as a rookie.

Of the 44 1st round pick RBs in the last 15 years, only 14 were drafted with a top-10 pick:

'98-Curtis Enis (5), Fred Taylor (9)

'99-Edge James (4), Ricky Williams (5)

'00-Jamal Lewis (5), Thomas Jones (7)

'01-LaDainian Tomlinson (5)

'05- Ronnie Brown (2), Cedric Benson (4), Cadillac Williams (5)

'06-Reggie Bush (2)

'07-Adrian Peterson (7)

'08-Darren McFadden (4)

'10-CJ Spiller (9)

Of those 14, 5 received 60% of the RB touches for their team: Taylor (65%), James (95%), Lewis (61%), Tomlinson (90%), and Cadillac Williams (61%). In addition, Ricky Williams received 59% of his teams RB touches, despite only playing 12 games. It’s safe to say he would have been in this group as well, if he hadn’t gotten hurt.

Of those 5 RBs, 3 were top-10 RBs (Taylor-#4, James-#1, LT-#7), and the other two were in the top-20 (Lewis-#16, Caddy-#19). **If you pro-rate Ricky Williams' rookies stats (12 games) over the full season, he would have finished as RB 17 that year, a FF starting RB**

So, recent history shows that TOP RB draft picks, who are utilized as the main RB on their team are likely to be starting-caliber FF RBs, and have a good chance of being worthy of a first round pick.

 

[moderated]

Let's say we put Arian Foster or Ryan Mathews in Cleveland. What would predictions be?

I'd take Richardson over both of them in a similar situation.

 

[Sabertooth]

Let's say we put Arian Foster or Ryan Mathews in Cleveland. What would predictions be?

I'd take Richardson over both of them in a similar situation.

For the sake of this arguement, what would you project Foster to in Cleveland if the traded happened right now because Richardson got hurt? 1200? More? I ask because we've all seen what Foster can do and he isn't 1/10th the prospect that Richardson was/is. I think people are assuming that Richardson is another Ingram or Mathews where he simply isn't. That's like saying that Tannehill and Luck are similar because they are both first rounders. Sure they are but the first round is often 4 or 5 very good prospects and then everybody else. Draft position gives a good indication of where a team ranks a guy especially at the top. I mean the Browns had their pick of several players, hundreds actually.