Trip's Pre-Preseason FF RB Busts (PPR-Redraft) (1 Viewer)

[TripItUp]

1.02 Christian McCaffrey - Currently the 2nd pick of the draft, CMC has a track record of missing games and is now on a team where the RBs almost always get injured. No thanks at 1.02.

2.04 Josh Jacobs - this is kinda cheating but the most recent news has Jacobs potentially holding out. Also, Raiders QB situation is a potential trainwreck. Is anybody really projecting a finely tuned offense this season in Vegas? Hard Pass on the risky Jacobs in the 2nd round.

2.09 Tony Pollard - great offense, great O LIne, great efficiency. But I think the Cowboys are bringing in another back or at a minimum bring back Zeke. Pollard is not a workhorse back and can't handle the volume to justify this ADP. So while he may not be a "bust" per se, he is IMHO overvalued. I want workhorse volume in round 2, not a capped ceiling due to lack of volume.

5.09 Javonte Williams - listening to medicinal experts on the topic, many are highly skeptical of Javonte being productive the first half of the season. If your league is weak enough where you can afford to stash a fifth round pick on your bench for a few months fine I suppose, but in any league I'm a part of I'm using that 5th round pick for other positions that will produce right away. I will have zero shares of Javonte at this ADP.


(ADPs referenced are from FantasyPros publicly provided PPR ADP)

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Austin Ekeler RB2 - Kellen Moore is the new OC. Despite proclamations that Pollard was going to be a HUGE part of the passing game and had 'receiver type skills...Pollard/Elliott combined for a 56/463/3 receiving line in 2022. Combined with LAC's stated desire to get more use out of the cannon attached to Herbert, I don't think we'll see 107 reception type numbers from him. And 18 TD's would also be difficult to replicate with a healthy Herbert.

Breece Hall RB11 - Love the talent and he showed himself to be quite studly prior to his injury. But once the season begins, it's a complete dice roll with regard to whether or not that knee acts up. If it does, then he'll be managed. So RB11 feels pricey.

Cam Akers RB22 - I almost feel as if McVay has become 'Belichick West' ever since Gurley. Unpredictable RB usage...blows smoke up a guys butt one week, a 2/7/0 performance a week later produces a bunch of WTF. Sure Akers had a nice close to the season. But for a guy McVay wanted no part of in October, weeks 13-18 saw Akers get 115 of the 140 RB touches pretty much out of necessity. I just don't buy the commitment here.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Cam Akers RB22

I’m with this one only because the drama makes me skeptical that they really want him there.

IIRC he was benched at one point & sent home/inactive? Then they immediately came out and offered him up for trade but had no takers.

I can’t remember if Akers was disgruntled, or if the team was tired of him complaining about touches (or maybe it was both?) but now we’re supposed to draft this dude as if he’s the starting RB and not a dude they desperately wanted off the team?

I’m not sure Evans or Evans (or Kyren Williams) are the answer there, but I’m with you - I have no interest in Cam Akers in redraft or dynasty.

 

[pinkstapler]

2.09 Tony Pollard - great offense, great O LIne, great efficiency. But I think the Cowboys are bringing in another back or at a minimum bring back Zeke. Pollard is not a workhorse back and can't handle the volume to justify this ADP. So while he may not be a "bust" per se, he is IMHO overvalued. I want workhorse volume in round 2, not a capped ceiling due to lack of volume.


(ADPs referenced are from FantasyPros publicly provided PPR ADP)

Pointing out Pollard "not being a workhorse back" and "can't handle the volume" are opinions seeing as we haven't seen him get that volume level and fail. Also pointing out he was RB8 last year with <200 rushing attempts and 55 targets so I'd argue he's already shown he doesn't even need additional volume to be a top 10 RB. But that aside, who are these workhorse volume RBs you're getting in the late 2nd round? The next 4 RBs ADP wise are Henry, Rhamondre, Jacobs, and Hall. You advocating to take one/some of them ahead of Pollard at ~2.09? I can see arguments for Henry or Jacobs in redraft. But Rhamondre has similar concerns shared by some about his volume, and Hall coming off the injury and seems like a bad bet to look like he did early last season. Just trying to gauge where your valuation lies with respect to the rest of the pool by saying Pollard is overvalued at 2.09.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

2.09 Tony Pollard - great offense, great O LIne, great efficiency. But I think the Cowboys are bringing in another back or at a minimum bring back Zeke. Pollard is not a workhorse back and can't handle the volume to justify this ADP. So while he may not be a "bust" per se, he is IMHO overvalued. I want workhorse volume in round 2, not a capped ceiling due to lack of volume.


(ADPs referenced are from FantasyPros publicly provided PPR ADP)

Pointing out Pollard "not being a workhorse back" and "can't handle the volume" are opinions seeing as we haven't seen him get that volume level and fail. Also pointing out he was RB8 last year with <200 rushing attempts and 55 targets so I'd argue he's already shown he doesn't even need additional volume to be a top 10 RB. But that aside, who are these workhorse volume RBs you're getting in the late 2nd round? The next 4 RBs ADP wise are Henry, Rhamondre, Jacobs, and Hall. You advocating to take one/some of them ahead of Pollard at ~2.09? I can see arguments for Henry or Jacobs in redraft. But Rhamondre has similar concerns shared by some about his volume, and Hall coming off the injury and seems like a bad bet to look like he did early last season. Just trying to gauge where your valuation lies with respect to the rest of the pool by saying Pollard is overvalued at 2.09.

Agreed, though I did take Stevenson over Pollard in a dynasty start-up.

Age is a factor there though. For redraft I’m probably Pollard > RS

I’m also in agreement about Pollard’s potential based on last year. So what if they bring back Zeke? Pollard put up great numbers even with Zeke there.

If anything. pollard might be a little undervalued at current ADP. I’m expecting him to creep up towards the 1-2 turn as a top 14 selection as we get closer to the season.

 

[efactor]

I wouldn’t take CMC in the top 6, but not because of injury concerns. I don’t think he’s any more of an injury concern than any other back at this point. My concern is when Mitchell plays, McCaffrey’s touches go down significantly. Also, Jordan Mason is getting a bit bigger role and I see him playing a lot in the 4th quarter in games the 49ers have a good lead. I think they use him to run out the clock instead of CMC or Mitchell to increase the chances of them staying healthy.

Still like CMC in the mid 1st but wouldn’t take him over Eckler and the elite receivers.

 

[TripItUp]

Austin Ekeler RB2 - Kellen Moore is the new OC. Despite proclamations that Pollard was going to be a HUGE part of the passing game and had 'receiver type skills...Pollard/Elliott combined for a 56/463/3 receiving line in 2022. Combined with LAC's stated desire to get more use out of the cannon attached to Herbert, I don't think we'll see 107 reception type numbers from him. And 18 TD's would also be difficult to replicate with a healthy Herbert.

Breece Hall RB11 - Love the talent and he showed himself to be quite studly prior to his injury. But once the season begins, it's a complete dice roll with regard to whether or not that knee acts up. If it does, then he'll be managed. So RB11 feels pricey.

Cam Akers RB22 - I almost feel as if McVay has become 'Belichick West' ever since Gurley. Unpredictable RB usage...blows smoke up a guys butt one week, a 2/7/0 performance a week later produces a bunch of WTF. Sure Akers had a nice close to the season. But for a guy McVay wanted no part of in October, weeks 13-18 saw Akers get 115 of the 140 RB touches pretty much out of necessity. I just don't buy the commitment here.

I'm on board with all of these for redraft, although I do love Breece in dynasty.

 

[TripItUp]

I wouldn’t take CMC in the top 6, but not because of injury concerns. I don’t think he’s any more of an injury concern than any other back at this point. My concern is when Mitchell plays, McCaffrey’s touches go down significantly. Also, Jordan Mason is getting a bit bigger role and I see him playing a lot in the 4th quarter in games the 49ers have a good lead. I think they use him to run out the clock instead of CMC or Mitchell to increase the chances of them staying healthy.

Still like CMC in the mid 1st but wouldn’t take him over Eckler and the elite receivers.

Agree that the committee is more likely than many expect.

 

[pinkstapler]

2.09 Tony Pollard - great offense, great O LIne, great efficiency. But I think the Cowboys are bringing in another back or at a minimum bring back Zeke. Pollard is not a workhorse back and can't handle the volume to justify this ADP. So while he may not be a "bust" per se, he is IMHO overvalued. I want workhorse volume in round 2, not a capped ceiling due to lack of volume.


(ADPs referenced are from FantasyPros publicly provided PPR ADP)

Pointing out Pollard "not being a workhorse back" and "can't handle the volume" are opinions seeing as we haven't seen him get that volume level and fail. Also pointing out he was RB8 last year with <200 rushing attempts and 55 targets so I'd argue he's already shown he doesn't even need additional volume to be a top 10 RB. But that aside, who are these workhorse volume RBs you're getting in the late 2nd round? The next 4 RBs ADP wise are Henry, Rhamondre, Jacobs, and Hall. You advocating to take one/some of them ahead of Pollard at ~2.09? I can see arguments for Henry or Jacobs in redraft. But Rhamondre has similar concerns shared by some about his volume, and Hall coming off the injury and seems like a bad bet to look like he did early last season. Just trying to gauge where your valuation lies with respect to the rest of the pool by saying Pollard is overvalued at 2.09.

Agreed, though I did take Stevenson over Pollard in a dynasty start-up.

Age is a factor there though. For redraft I’m probably Pollard > RS

I’m also in agreement about Pollard’s potential based on last year. So what if they bring back Zeke? Pollard put up great numbers even with Zeke there.

If anything. pollard might be a little undervalued at current ADP. I’m expecting him to creep up towards the 1-2 turn as a top 14 selection as we get closer to the season.

I'm a Rhamondre-stan myself, which is why I said just "some" share concerns for his volume haha. I personally think he's the starting RB1 and will play a large roll on passing downs and at the goal line for that team and have 0 concerns over anyone currently on the roster being more than a rotational back to give him some breathers. I'd have a tough time choosing between him and Pollard in redraft in the late 2nd. I honestly might lean Rhamondre just because his passing usage was phenomenal last year (behind only Ekeler and CMC). Even with some regression baked in, his value in a PPR can't be overstated IMO, especially with Mac Jones as the starter.

 

[Anarchy99]

Even with some regression baked in, his value in a PPR can't be overstated IMO, especially with Mac Jones as the starter.

There's a lot of discussion on RS in his individual thread. Last year, IMO, was the perfect storm for Stevenson. DHarris got hurt and never really got back to 100%. Ty Montgomery was their designated receiving back and got hurt for the season in Week 1. BB doesn't trust rookie RBs and KHarris and Strong were only utilized in an emergency capacity. Put another way, it's highly unlikely the plan heading into the season was to give Stevenson the ball 279 times last year. I would be surprised if that is the plan this season either . . . mostly because Bill hasn't really had that strategy in the past 10 seasons. The year Blount went crazy stemmed from injuries to their other backs (and Blount was the last man standing). NE always has mostly JAGs to round out their backfield and they collectively ALWAYS get a ton of work.

As for Pollard, he ranked as RB9 last year with Elliott around with a smaller workload than most other Top 10 backs (232 touches). DAL has essentially indicated Zeke isn't coming back, so not sure who else on the roster is going to fill the void of almost 250 touches (or who else they could sign). Pollard averaged 14.5 touches a game. Is it unreasonable to project him with 18 touches this year? That limited increase in workload could push him into the Top 5. Not sure I would consider him an injury risk. He's averaged 15.5 games played per season so far.

 

[efactor]

Even with some regression baked in, his value in a PPR can't be overstated IMO, especially with Mac Jones as the starter.

There's a lot of discussion on RS in his individual thread. Last year, IMO, was the perfect storm for Stevenson. DHarris got hurt and never really got back to 100%. Ty Montgomery was their designated receiving back and got hurt for the season in Week 1. BB doesn't trust rookie RBs and KHarris and Strong were only utilized in an emergency capacity. Put another way, it's highly unlikely the plan heading into the season was to give Stevenson the ball 279 times last year. I would be surprised if that is the plan this season either . . . mostly because Bill hasn't really had that strategy in the past 10 seasons. The year Blount went crazy stemmed from injuries to their other backs (and Blount was the last man standing). NE always has mostly JAGs to round out their backfield and they collectively ALWAYS get a ton of work.

Stevenson had 69 receptions but didn't do much with them. Averaged 6.1 per catch compared to the league average of 7.3. Seems the Pats would be looking for someone a bit more explosive in the receiving game. Strong maybe?

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Even with some regression baked in, his value in a PPR can't be overstated IMO, especially with Mac Jones as the starter.

There's a lot of discussion on RS in his individual thread. Last year, IMO, was the perfect storm for Stevenson. DHarris got hurt and never really got back to 100%. Ty Montgomery was their designated receiving back and got hurt for the season in Week 1. BB doesn't trust rookie RBs and KHarris and Strong were only utilized in an emergency capacity. Put another way, it's highly unlikely the plan heading into the season was to give Stevenson the ball 279 times last year. I would be surprised if that is the plan this season either . . . mostly because Bill hasn't really had that strategy in the past 10 seasons. The year Blount went crazy stemmed from injuries to their other backs (and Blount was the last man standing). NE always has mostly JAGs to round out their backfield and they collectively ALWAYS get a ton of work.

Stevenson had 69 receptions but didn't do much with them. Averaged 6.1 per catch compared to the league average of 7.3. Seems the Pats would be looking for someone a bit more explosive in the receiving game. Strong maybe?

To me that’s more of an indication that defenses knew Stevenson was getting the ball. The rest of that offense was awful.

 

[efactor]

Even with some regression baked in, his value in a PPR can't be overstated IMO, especially with Mac Jones as the starter.

There's a lot of discussion on RS in his individual thread. Last year, IMO, was the perfect storm for Stevenson. DHarris got hurt and never really got back to 100%. Ty Montgomery was their designated receiving back and got hurt for the season in Week 1. BB doesn't trust rookie RBs and KHarris and Strong were only utilized in an emergency capacity. Put another way, it's highly unlikely the plan heading into the season was to give Stevenson the ball 279 times last year. I would be surprised if that is the plan this season either . . . mostly because Bill hasn't really had that strategy in the past 10 seasons. The year Blount went crazy stemmed from injuries to their other backs (and Blount was the last man standing). NE always has mostly JAGs to round out their backfield and they collectively ALWAYS get a ton of work.

Stevenson had 69 receptions but didn't do much with them. Averaged 6.1 per catch compared to the league average of 7.3. Seems the Pats would be looking for someone a bit more explosive in the receiving game. Strong maybe?

To me that’s more of an indication that defenses knew Stevenson was getting the ball. The rest of that offense was awful.

That sounds like an excuse. He just didn’t do much with the pass catching opportunities last year. Maybe he does better this year but maybe they are looking for someone to perform better in that role. We will see.

 

[Anarchy99]

That sounds like an excuse. He just didn’t do much with the pass catching opportunities last year. Maybe he does better this year but maybe they are looking for someone to perform better in that role. We will see.

I don't think NE has made many decisions about what their backfield will look like. But I can say from following their practices so far that they have been trying to get Montgomery, Strong, and Robinson work out of the backfield. Today's practice receiving totals for RBs: J.J. Taylor (5), Ty Montgomery (3), and Rhamondre Stevenson (3). Bear in mind, Stevenson gets way more reps than the other backs. It's WAY too early to conclude anything. It's also way to early to even guess as to what the plan might be. Stevenson is clearly their best back . . . it's just a matter of how much (and how) they will use the other backs.

 

[pinkstapler]

Even with some regression baked in, his value in a PPR can't be overstated IMO, especially with Mac Jones as the starter.

There's a lot of discussion on RS in his individual thread. Last year, IMO, was the perfect storm for Stevenson. DHarris got hurt and never really got back to 100%. Ty Montgomery was their designated receiving back and got hurt for the season in Week 1. BB doesn't trust rookie RBs and KHarris and Strong were only utilized in an emergency capacity. Put another way, it's highly unlikely the plan heading into the season was to give Stevenson the ball 279 times last year. I would be surprised if that is the plan this season either . . . mostly because Bill hasn't really had that strategy in the past 10 seasons. The year Blount went crazy stemmed from injuries to their other backs (and Blount was the last man standing). NE always has mostly JAGs to round out their backfield and they collectively ALWAYS get a ton of work.

Stevenson had 69 receptions but didn't do much with them. Averaged 6.1 per catch compared to the league average of 7.3. Seems the Pats would be looking for someone a bit more explosive in the receiving game. Strong maybe?

To me that’s more of an indication that defenses knew Stevenson was getting the ball. The rest of that offense was awful.

As well as the play calling which was universally panned as being absolutely terrible. They made Matt Canadas offense look almost palatable.

We'll see on Rhamondre. I think he's in store for another RB1 season.

 

[pinkstapler]

Well one less guy competing for touches there. James Robinson cut.

 

[menobrown]

I’m not sure Evans or Evans

FYI it is just one Evans now. They cut Tiyon last week.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I’m not sure Evans or Evans

FYI it is just one Evans now. They cut Tiyon last week.

A tragic tale of being the wrong Evans.

 

[msudaisy26]

1.02 Christian McCaffrey - Currently the 2nd pick of the draft, CMC has a track record of missing games and is now on a team where the RBs almost always get injured. No thanks at 1.02.

2.04 Josh Jacobs - this is kinda cheating but the most recent news has Jacobs potentially holding out. Also, Raiders QB situation is a potential trainwreck. Is anybody really projecting a finely tuned offense this season in Vegas? Hard Pass on the risky Jacobs in the 2nd round.

2.09 Tony Pollard - great offense, great O LIne, great efficiency. But I think the Cowboys are bringing in another back or at a minimum bring back Zeke. Pollard is not a workhorse back and can't handle the volume to justify this ADP. So while he may not be a "bust" per se, he is IMHO overvalued. I want workhorse volume in round 2, not a capped ceiling due to lack of volume.

5.09 Javonte Williams - listening to medicinal experts on the topic, many are highly skeptical of Javonte being productive the first half of the season. If your league is weak enough where you can afford to stash a fifth round pick on your bench for a few months fine I suppose, but in any league I'm a part of I'm using that 5th round pick for other positions that will produce right away. I will have zero shares of Javonte at this ADP.


(ADPs referenced are from FantasyPros publicly provided PPR ADP)

I will play devil's advocate here.

If healthy all year CMac is a league winner and has the highest upside of any fantasy football player in the league. If he stays healthy he is surrounded by players that don't Deebo, Kittle, and Mitchell. He could easily be the entire offense in a pretty weak division.

Jacob has no competition, and if his hold out is such a big problem then why isn't Barkley on the list at an earlier ADP, while being a bigger injury risk, in a division with much stronger defenses.

Pollard good line, good offense and less competition than last year when he finished as a rb1. Even a 10 percent bump in touches could put him in the top 5.

If he is healthy then look what Payton has done for rbs. You are getting top 5 upside at the cost of rb2/rb3 range.

 

[TripItUp]

I will play devil's advocate here.

If healthy all year CMac is a league winner and has the highest upside of any fantasy football player in the league. If he stays healthy he is surrounded by players that don't Deebo, Kittle, and Mitchell. He could easily be the entire offense in a pretty weak division.

Jacob has no competition, and if his hold out is such a big problem then why isn't Barkley on the list at an earlier ADP, while being a bigger injury risk, in a division with much stronger defenses.

Pollard good line, good offense and less competition than last year when he finished as a rb1. Even a 10 percent bump in touches could put him in the top 5.

If he is healthy then look what Payton has done for rbs. You are getting top 5 upside at the cost of rb2/rb3 range.

love it! will respond later today