Trip's Top 4 Overvalued RBs - Redraft PPR (1 Viewer)

[TripItUp]

Using FantasyPros ADP...here we go, same as the other threads.

1.  Saquon Barkley #6RB/#6Overall - I love Saquon, but I'm not drafting him coming off the injury until the 2nd round...even then I'm not feeling great about it.   In competitive leagues if your RB1 is getting limited touches you can dig yourself into an early season hole.  Hard pass.  Guppy leagues or even 10 team leagues where you can stash him for 6 games...a more viable strategy.

2.  Miles Sanders 17/32 - I just don't think Miles is a workhorse.  The Eagles are already talking about a large split with Boston Scott.   I don't see the ceiling here to go ahead of other backs like Montgomery and Carson.   

3.  Melvin Gordon 26/66 - Going ahead of starting caliber QBs/WRs and TES...and several higher upside backs.  Gordon sill has some gas in the tank, but I expect the mileage to catch up and the younger, more explosive Javonte Williams to slowly take the lion's share of touches as the season progresses.

4.  Raheem Mostert 27/65 - Niners made a move for Sermon for a reason.  Mostert is great in spurts but at 29 is not  likely to justify going ahead of other players at this ADP as his best years are likely behind him.   Other RBs I'd prefer that are going later than Mostert include Carter/Davis/R Jones/Sermon/Moss.   

What say you?  Any that I missed?

 

[travdogg]

I'm 100% with you on Gordon and Mostert, though I don't really like Trey Sermon either. I do like Javonte a ton though.

I can see your point on Barkley, though I kind of think all RB's after the top-3 are full of warts. Barkley might be my favorite of that group, but he's after guys like Kelce, Adams, Tyreek to me. I'd still be thrilled with him in round 2 though, however unlikely that is. 

I disagree on Miles Sanders. I'm not buying Boston Scott being anything more than a change of pace, just like he was a year ago. Sanders is the centerpiece of this offense in my opinion, and could see 300 touches. I do think the Eagles are going to be a lot more run heavy than they ever were with Wentz/Pederson. The coaching change, the change to Hurts, and the healthy OL, all make Sanders a better option than he was a year ago in my opinion. 

A few RBs I think are overvalued by their Fantasy Pros ADP are:

James Robinson(22/47) I just don't see a scenario where he gets the touches to get there. I don't really like Etienne either, and think this will be a RBBC where both guys are somewhat cancelled out. Probably both unreliable RB3s. 

Ronald Jones(30/73) They don't trust him at all on passing downs, they also don't totally trust him at the GL. Just a lot of empty calorie yards. Tampa honestly may not have a RB worth owning unless 1 or 2 others get injured.

Michael Carter(34/82) I like him a lot as a player, but I think its going to be a RBBC on a team that likely isn't going to have much success on offense this season. In a way, I think he's not all that dissimilar to Mostert, as far as role and value, he's at least a little cheaper. 

AJ Dillon(37/93) He had a nice game in some snowy weather against the Titans last year, but what is his role? Jamaal Williams often replaced Aaron Jones on 3rd downs and in the 2 minute offense, Dillon isn't that type of guy. Its possible that due to his size, he'll get some GL work, but Jones has been a pretty effective TD scorer, and the Packers OL looks a lot worse on paper. Dillon feels like a pure handcuff to me.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Barkley isn’t going 1.06 though.  

 

[wgoldsph]

 I disagree on Miles Sanders. I'm not buying Boston Scott being anything more than a change of pace, just like he was a year ago. Sanders is the centerpiece of this offense in my opinion, and could see 300 touches. I do think the Eagles are going to be a lot more run heavy than they ever were with Wentz/Pederson. The coaching change, the change to Hurts, and the healthy OL, all make Sanders a better option than he was a year ago in my opinion.

What has sanders shown during his career or across camp with the new staff that leads you to that conclusion?  He's my biggest rb fade this year by far and I think he's playing somewhere else next season (at the latest).  There's nothing he can do that Scott and k Johnson can't for a fraction of the price.  Hell even the rookie might be more involved in some games than Sanders towards the end of the year when the eagles are out of contention and the staff wants to see what they've got for 2022.  Dnd list

I'm also not touching Barkley until the second round.  So basically I'm not getting him.  But I don't mind being wrong here, I like him and want him to put up the highlight runs we saw during his rookie season.   Just won't be on my rosters.

Montgomery is a bad back with a bad coaching staff who faced a dream cream puff schedule at the end of the last season where he was basically the last rb standing in his team.  Even if Cohen isn't back the bears actually have a legitimate backup rb and a rookie qb who can make passes to arob and all 60 of the bears tes.  Montgomery will be asked to do less and when he does it it will be as effective as the defense permits and no more,which is not what you want out of your poorly coached rb, the poor coach who somehow thinks the downside of Daltons career is better than having fields toss arod a handful of bombs.  Another in the Dnd list

Derek Henry is my last and most controversial choice.  One season with 2k yards should have killed him.  Two seasons should end up killing his family tree.   Eventually the human body has to break down and I'm getting off this ride before it does.   If he somehow lasts to the second round I'd have to take him, but I'll hate myself for it.

 

[SoBeDad]

Gainwell has caught the most passes of any RB in camp. The offensive should be better,  but I'm not sold on Sanders either. OTOH, those highlight runs are impressive. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/theeagleswire.usatoday.com/lists/philadelphia-eagles-stock-report-2021-training-camp/amp/

 

[TripItUp]

Barkley isn’t going 1.06 though.  

Per fantasy pros consensus ADP he is.

 

[Soulfly3]

Everyone so low on Barkley that I think he absolutely dominates just cuz. 

I dont blame ppl being low, but it just feels like the obvious comeback player of the year winner. 

 

[On The Rocks]

Zeke is on my list.  Entering his 6th season averaging almost 300 carries per season.  I just think a significant decline is due.

 

[SoBeDad]

Zeke is on my list.  Entering his 6th season averaging almost 300 carries per season.  I just think a significant decline is due.

The counter argument is that he was awesome at the beginning of last year when Dak played. Dak's health is my concern. If you can get both Zeke and Pollard, you'll have someone like Jamaal Williams was for GB, a spot starter and great proven handcuff value. You might have to reach a little to make sure you get Pollard.

 

[wgoldsph]

The counter argument is that he was awesome at the beginning of last year when Dak played. Dak's health is my concern. If you can get both Zeke and Pollard, you'll have someone like Jamaal Williams was for GB, a spot starter and great proven handcuff value. You might have to reach a little to make sure you get Pollard.

If you watched him at the start of the year he wasn't awesome.  He looked like he was missing a step.   Maybe it was the line, but there was noticeable difference in his burst.  Dak's insane start buoyed his numbers, it's easy to run when every defense has to defend against a qb throwing for 500 yards a game, but he just didn't pass the eye test.

Edit - as for Dak he'll be fine.   His leg injury is passed, and the arm injury that's kept him out of camp is the kind of thing that wouldn't even register during the regular season.  Unless something else happens to him, fire up your Daks.

 

[Anarchy99]

If you watched him at the start of the year he wasn't awesome.  He looked like he was missing a step.   Maybe it was the line, but there was noticeable difference in his burst.  Dak's insane start buoyed his numbers, it's easy to run when every defense has to defend against a qb throwing for 500 yards a game, but he just didn't pass the eye test.

Edit - as for Dak he'll be fine.   His leg injury is passed, and the arm injury that's kept him out of camp is the kind of thing that wouldn't even register during the regular season.  Unless something else happens to him, fire up your Daks.

Didn't Zeke get COVID last summer and have lingering issues to get back to full strength? That would explain why he didn't look right.

 

[Dizzy]

Using FantasyPros ADP...here we go, same as the other threads.

1.  Saquon Barkley

2.  Miles Sanders

3.  Melvin Gordon

4.  Raheem Mostert

What say you?  Any that I missed?

I agree on Barkely at 6. I just think he's not going to regain stud form until 2nd half of season (if he's still on the field).

Not a fan of Sanders or Mostert as either are capable of giving you 20 or a 0 any given week.

Gordon... hmm... depending on your scoring, he was close to top-10 RB 2nd half of 2020 on a PPG basis.

 

[shadrap]

What has sanders shown during his career or across camp with the new staff that leads you to that conclusion?  He's my biggest rb fade this year by far and I think he's playing somewhere else next season (at the latest).  There's nothing he can do that Scott and k Johnson can't for a fraction of the price.  Hell even the rookie might be more involved in some games than Sanders towards the end of the year when the eagles are out of contention and the staff wants to see what they've got for 2022.  Dnd list

I'm also not touching Barkley until the second round.  So basically I'm not getting him.  But I don't mind being wrong here, I like him and want him to put up the highlight runs we saw during his rookie season.   Just won't be on my rosters.

Montgomery is a bad back with a bad coaching staff who faced a dream cream puff schedule at the end of the last season where he was basically the last rb standing in his team.  Even if Cohen isn't back the bears actually have a legitimate backup rb and a rookie qb who can make passes to arob and all 60 of the bears tes.  Montgomery will be asked to do less and when he does it it will be as effective as the defense permits and no more,which is not what you want out of your poorly coached rb, the poor coach who somehow thinks the downside of Daltons career is better than having fields toss arod a handful of bombs.  Another in the Dnd list

Derek Henry is my last and most controversial choice.  One season with 2k yards should have killed him.  Two seasons should end up killing his family tree.   Eventually the human body has to break down and I'm getting off this ride before it does.   If he somehow lasts to the second round I'd have to take him, but I'll hate myself for it.

really good take.

thanx.

 

[Anarchy99]

I agree on Barkely at 6. I just think he's not going to regain stud form until 2nd half of season (if he's still on the field).

Not a fan of Sanders or Mostert as either are capable of giving you 20 or a 0 any given week.

Gordon... hmm... depending on your scoring, he was close to top-10 RB 2nd half of 2020 on a PPG basis.

In 0 PPR leagues, over the last 8 games of 2020, Gordon ranked 18th in PPG. In PPR leagues, he ranked 23rd.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Per fantasy pros consensus ADP he is.

Fantasy pros isn’t that great for ADP. Looks like they bought mock draft central, who used to be good because you could eliminate dynasty picks from the data set. Sigh. 

I’ve been mocking like crazy. He’s been a 1st round pick like 2x in 40+ mocks on CBS. 

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

Using FantasyPros ADP...here we go, same as the other threads.

1.  Saquon Barkley #6RB/#6Overall - I love Saquon, but I'm not drafting him coming off the injury until the 2nd round...even then I'm not feeling great about it.   In competitive leagues if your RB1 is getting limited touches you can dig yourself into an early season hole.  Hard pass.  Guppy leagues or even 10 team leagues where you can stash him for 6 games...a more viable strategy.

2.  Miles Sanders 17/32 - I just don't think Miles is a workhorse.  The Eagles are already talking about a large split with Boston Scott.   I don't see the ceiling here to go ahead of other backs like Montgomery and Carson.   

3.  Melvin Gordon 26/66 - Going ahead of starting caliber QBs/WRs and TES...and several higher upside backs.  Gordon sill has some gas in the tank, but I expect the mileage to catch up and the younger, more explosive Javonte Williams to slowly take the lion's share of touches as the season progresses.

4.  Raheem Mostert 27/65 - Niners made a move for Sermon for a reason.  Mostert is great in spurts but at 29 is likely to justify going ahead of other players at this ADP as his best years are likely behind him.   Other RBs I'd prefer that are going later than Mostert include Carter/Davis/R Jones/Sermon/Moss.   

What say you?  Any that I missed?

Haven't really started digging into ADPs, but I'm with you on fading all four. Barkley's the toughest, and he could easily come back at full strength and dominate. But outside of Peterson and Jamaal Charles back in the day, I can't remember many RBs who came back from an ACL tear without missing a beat.

Sanders I just don't think is all that talented. Gordon's going to lose his job, if not right away then by the halfway point of the season at the latest. Mostert is good when healthy but he's never healthy, and we have too much experience with that backfield to view it as anything other than a crapshoot

 

[Gally]

AJ Dillon(37/93) He had a nice game in some snowy weather against the Titans last year, but what is his role? Jamaal Williams often replaced Aaron Jones on 3rd downs and in the 2 minute offense, Dillon isn't that type of guy. Its possible that due to his size, he'll get some GL work, but Jones has been a pretty effective TD scorer, and the Packers OL looks a lot worse on paper. Dillon feels like a pure handcuff to me.

I see it shifting to where Dillon gets some of the early down work Jones had last year as well as GL looks.  Jones will take on Williams role, and by that I mean he will be the 3rd down back and 2 minute back while ceding some (not all) of the early down work to Dillon so Jones stays fresh.  If Dillon performs on early downs and earns some trust it will allow the Packers to use Jones where he works best in space.  So I don't see a direct swap of duties (Jones being Williams and Dillon being Jones from last year) but it will be close to that with Jones still getting about the same amount of use just in a different manner.  

 

[Dizzy]

In 0 PPR leagues, over the last 8 games of 2020, Gordon ranked 18th in PPG. In PPR leagues, he ranked 23rd.

On PPG basis (in our league) Gordan was 19th overall RB for 2020... down the stretch (maybe last 7 games) he was much higher. 3+ PPG better than guys like Carson, Sanders, Zeke.

I mean, he was no J.K. Dobbins

 

[SoBeDad]

Didn't Zeke get COVID last summer and have lingering issues to get back to full strength? That would explain why he didn't look right.

Also, are there examples of cowbell top backs losing it at age 26, not due to injury? Campbell had a 1300 yard 12-td season at age 28 after years of insane use. Zeke has a safe floor at 5+ in ppr, if Dak stays healthy. 

 

[TripItUp]

Zeke is on my list.  Entering his 6th season averaging almost 300 carries per season.  I just think a significant decline is due.

Tough situation because Pollard is becoming an expensive handcuff too.  

That's what is nice about Henry...Evans is a much cheaper handcuff than Pollard.

 

[travdogg]

What has sanders shown during his career or across camp with the new staff that leads you to that conclusion?  He's my biggest rb fade this year by far and I think he's playing somewhere else next season (at the latest).  There's nothing he can do that Scott and k Johnson can't for a fraction of the price.  Hell even the rookie might be more involved in some games than Sanders towards the end of the year when the eagles are out of contention and the staff wants to see what they've got for 2022.  Dnd list

Montgomery is a bad back with a bad coaching staff who faced a dream cream puff schedule at the end of the last season where he was basically the last rb standing in his team.  Even if Cohen isn't back the bears actually have a legitimate backup rb and a rookie qb who can make passes to arob and all 60 of the bears tes.  Montgomery will be asked to do less and when he does it it will be as effective as the defense permits and no more,which is not what you want out of your poorly coached rb, the poor coach who somehow thinks the downside of Daltons career is better than having fields toss arod a handful of bombs.  Another in the Dnd list

Sanders has averaged roughly 5.0 YPC his first 2 seasons, and has been one of the most explosive RB's in the NFL. He just needs more consistency, and to stay healthy. He's not all that dissimilar to DeMarco Murray after his first 2 years, not that I'm going to project that level of breakout, but its on the table. He's shown the ability to do everything well, just not for a prolonged period yet. He also gets a bonus from Hurts taking over, as teams will have to use at least 1 defender to account for him rushing too, likely increasing what was already a pretty high percentage of big plays. Sanders does need to decrease his drops from  last year, but that wasn't an issue at all his rookie season, and drops are usual a pretty unstable statistic. 

Scott doesn't have the big play ability, or the tackle breaking ability of Sanders, and Johnson will be lucky to make the team, his knee is shot. Gainwell is more likely to be a special teams player than a serious threat, he was a day 3 pick for a good reason. Barring injury, I'd be very surprised if Sanders had fewer than 250 touches. The idea that Sanders will be playing elsewhere by next season at the latest, isn't based in any kind of reality. He's the centerpiece of the offense, and still has 2 years left on his rookie deal. 

Calling Montgomery a bad back is asinine. Quick list of RB's who have broken more tackles than Montgomery the last 2 seasons: Derrick Henry, Nick Chubb, Dalvin Cook. End of list. I will agree that Nagy hasn't been the best HC, but he's also been working around some poor QB play, which should be improved with Dalton, and potentially much improved with Fields. Montgomery will greatly benefit the second Fields takes over, as like with Hurts, Fields will draw attention on the ground.

Montgomery looked a lot more explosive last season after slimming down a bit. He still doesn't have great long speed, but that is the only hole in his game. What he did down the stretch last year is almost certainly his ceiling, but that is more than built into his price tag. He was RB3 down the stretch, he's going RB15 right now. That easy schedule is still there, nobody in the NFC North has a good run defense(other than the Bears that is) and out of division game include the Bengals, Raiders, Cardinals, and Seahawks. I think Montgomery is a an ideal RB2, who should see 300 touches once again this season.

Frankly, if I go Kelce/WR or WR/WR to start my draft, I wouldn't be upset with Montgomery/Sanders as my top-2 RBs. 

 

[SoBeDad]

Take away Sanders 3 big runs and he's under 4 ypc on his other 161 carries. Miles not Barry. 

Why is he so low on pff (63.0)? Is it the 20% drop rate, pass protection, poor oline play?

 

[foxco]

I wouldn't be upset with Montgomery/Sanders as my top-2 RBs. 

My starters in two dynasty leagues. I'm mildly upset. 

 

[travdogg]

Take away Sanders 3 big runs and he's under 4 ypc on his other 161 carries. Miles not Barry. 

Why is he so low on pff (63.0)? Is it the 20% drop rate, pass protection, poor oline play?

The drop rate plays a huge part, it was really bad last year, though it was better when Hurts took over, and wasn't an issue his rookie year. His PFF rushing grade is solid, and is higher than the likes of Ezekiel Elliott, Austin Ekeler, Joe Mixon, Chris Carson, and Kareem Hunt.

 I hate the idea of taking away big plays, especially when it wasn't just 1, its been enough his first 2 seasons, to show that its a part of who he is as a player.

I'm not arguing he's a top-5 RB or anything, even I've got him around RB15 or so, he just seems to be garnering an inordinate amount of negativity that doesn't really seem justified to me.

 

[wgoldsph]

Sanders has averaged roughly 5.0 YPC his first 2 seasons, and has been one of the most explosive RB's in the NFL. He just needs more consistency, and to stay healthy. He's not all that dissimilar to DeMarco Murray after his first 2 years, not that I'm going to project that level of breakout, but its on the table. He's shown the ability to do everything well, just not for a prolonged period yet. He also gets a bonus from Hurts taking over, as teams will have to use at least 1 defender to account for him rushing too, likely increasing what was already a pretty high percentage of big plays. Sanders does need to decrease his drops from  last year, but that wasn't an issue at all his rookie season, and drops are usual a pretty unstable statistic. 

Scott doesn't have the big play ability, or the tackle breaking ability of Sanders, and Johnson will be lucky to make the team, his knee is shot. Gainwell is more likely to be a special teams player than a serious threat, he was a day 3 pick for a good reason. Barring injury, I'd be very surprised if Sanders had fewer than 250 touches. The idea that Sanders will be playing elsewhere by next season at the latest, isn't based in any kind of reality. He's the centerpiece of the offense, and still has 2 years left on his rookie deal. 

Calling Montgomery a bad back is asinine. Quick list of RB's who have broken more tackles than Montgomery the last 2 seasons: Derrick Henry, Nick Chubb, Dalvin Cook. End of list. I will agree that Nagy hasn't been the best HC, but he's also been working around some poor QB play, which should be improved with Dalton, and potentially much improved with Fields. Montgomery will greatly benefit the second Fields takes over, as like with Hurts, Fields will draw attention on the ground.

Montgomery looked a lot more explosive last season after slimming down a bit. He still doesn't have great long speed, but that is the only hole in his game. What he did down the stretch last year is almost certainly his ceiling, but that is more than built into his price tag. He was RB3 down the stretch, he's going RB15 right now. That easy schedule is still there, nobody in the NFC North has a good run defense(other than the Bears that is) and out of division game include the Bengals, Raiders, Cardinals, and Seahawks. I think Montgomery is a an ideal RB2, who should see 300 touches once again this season.

Frankly, if I go Kelce/WR or WR/WR to start my draft, I wouldn't be upset with Montgomery/Sanders as my top-2 RBs. 

Sanders has yet to have over 180 carries in a season and the idea of him becoming the offensive centerpiece has a much merit as him getting traded before next year - conjecture on both our sides.   Except based on how training camp has been going the Eagles haven't been treating Sanders like an offensive centerpiece.  Nor have they ever.  Around 50% snap count both seasons.  Do I think Scott or Johnson (or Gainwell) are the answer at rb?  No.   How about the defense, will they be good enough to keep the eagles in the game so they can run the ball? I think the Eagles need to scrap the entire team and start over.

Quick list of "good" running backs with a career ypc of 4 - David Montgomery apparently. Funny how that stat matters for Sanders but not him.  As for qb play, was Wentz really better than whatever the bears were rolling out last year?  How about the year before when Wentz was hurt and whoever was the backup for the eagles VS tibursky (sp)? 

Both players had terrible luck with qbs.  They both struggled in different ways. And they both produced inconsistent and below average numbers outside of select spurts.  That's what you're betting on, that they can even out towards the high end of their production.  With Sanders I have to ask why - everything around him looks like a dumpster fire and the coaching staff doesn't like him despite what the fantasy community might want.  Montgomery at least has an improved supporting cast, maybe he can sustain that td+ average he had from week 13 on last season (his first 100 yard game was week 12, but hey racking up all your year's production in six games isn't a huge red flag) while Nagy plays Dalton until his arm falls off, but that's not a gamble I'm willing to take.

There's so many rbs in the 3rd/4th round with great upside that don't have a proven track record of maddening inconsistencies and straight up not living up to the rookie hype.   Give me one if them.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

Taylor, Swift, Dobbins, Edmunds, Gaskin.

 

[shadrap]

Taylor, Swift, Dobbins, Edmunds, Gaskin.

as over valued?

 

[Tanner9919]

Using FantasyPros ADP...here we go, same as the other threads.

1.  Saquon Barkley #6RB/#6Overall - I love Saquon, but I'm not drafting him coming off the injury until the 2nd round...even then I'm not feeling great about it.   In competitive leagues if your RB1 is getting limited touches you can dig yourself into an early season hole.  Hard pass.  Guppy leagues or even 10 team leagues where you can stash him for 6 games...a more viable strategy.

2.  Miles Sanders 17/32 - I just don't think Miles is a workhorse.  The Eagles are already talking about a large split with Boston Scott.   I don't see the ceiling here to go ahead of other backs like Montgomery and Carson.   

3.  Melvin Gordon 26/66 - Going ahead of starting caliber QBs/WRs and TES...and several higher upside backs.  Gordon sill has some gas in the tank, but I expect the mileage to catch up and the younger, more explosive Javonte Williams to slowly take the lion's share of touches as the season progresses.

4.  Raheem Mostert 27/65 - Niners made a move for Sermon for a reason.  Mostert is great in spurts but at 29 is likely to justify going ahead of other players at this ADP as his best years are likely behind him.   Other RBs I'd prefer that are going later than Mostert include Carter/Davis/R Jones/Sermon/Moss.   

What say you?  Any that I missed?

nice list, thanks for starting this thread.

Gordon will be brushed aside by the time the first preseason game is over.

Damien Harris - I'll believe it when I see it

JK Dobbins - Gus Edwards lurks. Dobbins is kinda small for a workhorse role with a 17 game schedule

David Montgomery - when he plays real defenses we'll see how it goes. last year's stats were against the worst of the worst defenses. 

James Conner

ETN - going to be hard for anyone to beat out J. Robinson ( who apparently is unstoppable in training camp).

 

[TripItUp]

JK Dobbins - Gus Edwards lurks. Dobbins is kinda small for a workhorse role with a 17 game schedule

I've seen Dobbins listed here a few times...to me Dobbins is a potential league winner and I'm targeting him in all drafts.  

 

[dickey moe]

Taylor, Swift,

Haters gonna hate, hate, hate hate, hate... 

 

[Mister CIA]

Sanders has yet to have over 180 carries in a season and the idea of him becoming the offensive centerpiece has a much merit as him getting traded before next year - conjecture on both our sides.   Except based on how training camp has been going the Eagles haven't been treating Sanders like an offensive centerpiece.  Nor have they ever.  Around 50% snap count both seasons.  Do I think Scott or Johnson (or Gainwell) are the answer at rb?  No.   How about the defense, will they be good enough to keep the eagles in the game so they can run the ball? I think the Eagles need to scrap the entire team and start over.

Quick list of "good" running backs with a career ypc of 4 - David Montgomery apparently. Funny how that stat matters for Sanders but not him.  As for qb play, was Wentz really better than whatever the bears were rolling out last year?  How about the year before when Wentz was hurt and whoever was the backup for the eagles VS tibursky (sp)? 

Both players had terrible luck with qbs.  They both struggled in different ways. And they both produced inconsistent and below average numbers outside of select spurts.  That's what you're betting on, that they can even out towards the high end of their production.  With Sanders I have to ask why - everything around him looks like a dumpster fire and the coaching staff doesn't like him despite what the fantasy community might want.  Montgomery at least has an improved supporting cast, maybe he can sustain that td+ average he had from week 13 on last season (his first 100 yard game was week 12, but hey racking up all your year's production in six games isn't a huge red flag) while Nagy plays Dalton until his arm falls off, but that's not a gamble I'm willing to take.

There's so many rbs in the 3rd/4th round with great upside that don't have a proven track record of maddening inconsistencies and straight up not living up to the rookie hype.   Give me one if them.

Would we even notice?

 

[wgoldsph]

I've seen Dobbins a few times...to me Dobbins is a potential league winner and I'm targeting him in all drafts.  

Now this we agree on.   Dude is special with the ball in his hands.

 

[SoBeDad]

I've seen Dobbins listed here a few times...to me Dobbins is a potential league winner and I'm targeting him in all drafts.  

Edwards also did well in 2020 and Lamar had 1,000 yards and 7 TDs. The talent is there, but what about the opportunities? In the same tier, I think Mixon could be a league winner, with both he and Burrow healthy - talent and opportunity.

 

[need2know]

Take away Sanders 3 big runs and he's under 4 ypc on his other 161 carries. Miles not Barry. 

Why is he so low on pff (63.0)? Is it the 20% drop rate, pass protection, poor oline play?

You can't take away stuff to help your argument.