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Trip's Top 5 Overvalued - pre camp edition (1 Viewer)

TripItUp

Footballguy
1.  Demarco Murray - wore down at the end of last year and has Henry breathing down his neck, whom isn't a cheap handcuff.  No thanks.

FBG reported ADP #15 overall 

2.  Leonard Fournette - Solid RB, terrible offense.   Rookie RBs are never a guarantee and often times run into a wall.  Throw in that the Jags' offense was inconsistent last year....I don't like the 2nd round price tag.  Give me Joe Mixon 20 picks later!

ADP #23

3.  Christian Mccaffrey - listen, Im the guy that started the mccaffrey thread in this forum, Im a fan.  That being said, his ADP is too high in standard leagues.  I would rather have fellow rookies Cook and Mixon before Mccaffrey in standard leagues.

ADP #38

4.  Russel Wilson - Great football player, but is not in the right environment to put up elite fantasy numbers which is upside I would personally expect from the QB6.  Carson Palmer may outscore him this year like he did in 2015 and is going up to 10 rounds later.  There are too many other qbs to like to spend this high of a pick on Wilson.  Take that to the bank brohans.

ADP #53

5.  Amari Cooper - true or false? Crabtree is going 28 picks later than Cooper but actually outscored Cooper last year?  True, fellas, true. Cooper is a big name and a talented kid, but it's overvalue city for the former Bama standout.  

ADP #22

Honorable Mentions

Marshawn Lynch

Allen Robinson 

Ty Montgomery 

Cam Newton 

Bilal Powell

Dak prescott

Matt Forte

 
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Got Wilson round 8 12 team PPR  :shrug:

No offense but you're nuts if you'd rather Palmer over him regardless of round. Palmer might be like Manning was a couple years ago--washed up.

Can't say I really dissagree with your other calls although I still like Murray in PPR late second if I can get him.

 
Agree with every one except Wilson and Forte.

Wilson's early season schedule is pretty nice with SF, TEN, IND, LAR as 4 of his first 5 games and at home vs GB for the opener.  I don't mind his price which I have seen around the 7th.

I agree that Palmer is crazy undervalued and if you miss on Wilson he is also a good choice.  

I probably wont own Forte, but I think he is priced fair.  He is still likely the lead back in that offense, granted that offense will suck.  A late round flier on Forte seems reasonable.

 
Wait, people are still drafting Forte? The combination of broken down and dumpster fire team scares me off.

McCaffrey's ADP is too high in all leagues, not just standard. The only two that I really disagree with would be Wilson and Lynch. Wilson finished QB5, QB3, and QB10 in the past 3 years. I'm going to chalk last year up to injury. Lynch... I just want to believe. We've seen players recently put up some pretty good age 31 years. I agree he's a gamble, but his OL is going to be so much better than in Seattle.

I'll throw some names out: Hopkins is still overrated. So is Cooks. I really don't understand how Lamar Miller is still going so high. Brady at QB2 is too high for me. I know you like Mixon, but I don't like rookies without offensive lines. 

 
Wait, people are still drafting Forte? The combination of broken down and dumpster fire team scares me off.

McCaffrey's ADP is too high in all leagues, not just standard. The only two that I really disagree with would be Wilson and Lynch. Wilson finished QB5, QB3, and QB10 in the past 3 years. I'm going to chalk last year up to injury. Lynch... I just want to believe. We've seen players recently put up some pretty good age 31 years. I agree he's a gamble, but his OL is going to be so much better than in Seattle.

I'll throw some names out: Hopkins is still overrated. So is Cooks. I really don't understand how Lamar Miller is still going so high. Brady at QB2 is too high for me. I know you like Mixon, but I don't like rookies without offensive lines. 
I have noticed both Cooks and Hopkins are going in 3rd in my recent redraft leagues. I think that is pretty fair for both. 

 
I disagree on Demarco (and my Ty, I am starting to come around on him) but the others are strong calls. Good work as always. 

 
Their ADP = 23 and 25 overall. Too rich for my blood.
Right, but who do you prefer in that area? It's a bit of a dry spot in the draft for me as I see the players going off around 23-34 as being very interchangeable and a matter of personal preference more than anything.

 
Right, but who do you prefer in that area? It's a bit of a dry spot in the draft for me as I see the players going off around 23-34 as being very interchangeable and a matter of personal preference more than anything.
This is one of my main gripes about snake drafting and one of the many reasons I primarily play auction now. But if I was stuck drafting at the turn there, I'd probably just reach for somebody I want that won't make it back to me at 48. It is painful to reach 10+ spots, but I'd rather have Keenan than Hopkins or Cooks.

 
McCaffrey as a do-it-all RB2 just after the 3/4 turn?  I'm liking that all day long.  Stewart can still get his and leave plenty of touches for McCaffrey if Cam can just figure out how to throw a 5 yd pass accurately.  If Stewart plays less than 16 games - almost a lock there - McCaffrey is going to post some big numbers that very well could win FF championships.

.

 
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This is one of my main gripes about snake drafting and one of the many reasons I primarily play auction now. But if I was stuck drafting at the turn there, I'd probably just reach for somebody I want that won't make it back to me at 48. It is painful to reach 10+ spots, but I'd rather have Keenan than Hopkins or Cooks.
I hear you, but for whatever reason, I just can't get into auctions.. I like Sammy Watkins a lot out that group and find myself sometimes "reaching" for him. However, if it's all the same tier to me, I guess it isn't really a reach.

 
McCaffrey as a do-it-all RB2 just after the 3/4 turn?  I'm like that all day long.  Stewart can still get his and leave plenty of touches for McCaffrey if Cam can just figure out how to throw a 5 ys pass accurately.
So much there concerns me. Cam as a short passer. The Panthers and their lack of passing to the RB. Them drafting 2 pass catching RBs (I think Samuel goes to the slot, but maybe not) and then the firing of the GM that just drafted these guys. The Panthers look like a screaming mess. 

 
I hear you, but for whatever reason, I just can't get into auctions.. I like Sammy Watkins a lot out that group and find myself sometimes "reaching" for him. However, if it's all the same tier to me, I guess it isn't really a reach.
How many have you tried? I absolutely love them.

 
So much there concerns me. Cam as a short passer. The Panthers and their lack of passing to the RB. Them drafting 2 pass catching RBs (I think Samuel goes to the slot, but maybe not) and then the firing of the GM that just drafted these guys. The Panthers look like a screaming mess. 


Stewart is 30, has never cracked 250 carries in his career, and his ypc has been in a steady decline that last 3 years.  I think McCaffrey's opportunity is being underrated.

 
Stewart is 30, has never cracked 250 carries in his career, and his ypc has been in a steady decline that last 3 years.  I think McCaffrey's opportunity is being underrated.
I hope so because CMC was one of my favorite prospects in recent years. 

 
Got Wilson round 8 12 team PPR  :shrug:

No offense but you're nuts if you'd rather Palmer over him regardless of round. Palmer might be like Manning was a couple years ago--washed up.
I didn't say I'd rather have Palmer, just making a point that there are some really good value qbs out there.  

Wilson is going at a point in the draft where there are some high upside players at other, critical positions still available.

That being said, I'd consider Wilson in the 8th depending on the draft and league format.

QB Draft position can vary wildly draft to draft, so I'm simply stating that based on ADP data Wilson is going too high.

 
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Stewart is 30, has never cracked 250 carries in his career, and his ypc has been in a steady decline that last 3 years.  I think McCaffrey's opportunity is being underrated.
I just don't have confidence that the Panthers staff will figure it out, at least not right away.  

 
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So much there concerns me. Cam as a short passer. The Panthers and their lack of passing to the RB. Them drafting 2 pass catching RBs (I think Samuel goes to the slot, but maybe not) and then the firing of the GM that just drafted these guys. The Panthers look like a screaming mess. 
:goodposting:

 
I'll throw some names out: Hopkins is still overrated. So is Cooks. I really don't understand how Lamar Miller is still going so high. Brady at QB2 is too high for me. I know you like Mixon, but I don't like rookies without offensive lines. 
Both are tough to project for because they have upside and a fair amount of risk at the same time.  Neither player has been drafted by me thus far so can't say I disagree.  Training camp should tell us a lot about the Watson-Hopkins connection.  As for Cooks, predicting patriots distribution is nearly an exercise in futility IMHO. Cooks is a decent option in best Ball formats but relying on him week to week would scare me at his price tag.

 
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I didn't say I'd rather have Palmer, just making a point that there are some really good value qbs out there.  

Wilson is going at a point in the draft where there are some high upside players at other, critical positions still available.

That being said, I'd consider Wilson in the 8th spending on the draft.

QB Draft position can vary wildly draft to draft, so I'm simply stating that based on ADP data Wilson is going too high.
Fwiw I'm in a 2qb league just starting. Weird rules in that the first two rounds are redraft then entirely dynasty (as you'd guess, many of us are trying to trade down into the 3rd). I gave strong consideration to taking Wilson as the 15th overall pick (took McCoy instead). I think he's undervalued due to his injury last year but should be a top 5 qb this year.

 
McCaffrey as a do-it-all RB2 just after the 3/4 turn?  I'm liking that all day long.  Stewart can still get his and leave plenty of touches for McCaffrey if Cam can just figure out how to throw a 5 yd pass accurately.  If Stewart plays less than 16 games - almost a lock there - McCaffrey is going to post some big numbers that very well could win FF championships.

.
He was a do-it-all RB in college but we don't know what he's going to be in the NFL.  I don't trust McCaffrey at that high of a pick yet because I don't know what his role is going to be for sure.  I think I'd feel safer taking him in the 5th round.

 
I probably wont own Forte, but I think he is priced fair.  He is still likely the lead back in that offense, granted that offense will suck.  A late round flier on Forte seems reasonable.
I think Powell will be the lead back this year since he's a little younger and has around the team since he was a rookie. showing more and more each season.

 
I think Powell will be the lead back this year since he's a little younger and has around the team since he was a rookie. showing more and more each season.
At some point in the season, probably.  But I would bet at this point Forte out scores Powell in the first 6 weeks.  Will be interesting to see how the pre-season plays out. 

 
At some point in the season, probably.  But I would bet at this point Forte out scores Powell in the first 6 weeks.  Will be interesting to see how the pre-season plays out. 
I'll take that bet. The only reason Forte is still on the team is because his contract is fully guaranteed and releasing him does nothing to help. Powell is no spring chicken himself but could have a future with the team at least, outplayed Forte last season and has seen his role increase each season. I do think it will be a RBBC for the most part, but Powell will lead the way right from Week 1.

 
I think cam is kind of a nice value where he is going...... Also like Murray in the second or late first if you really want a RB.

Agree with everything else

 
Hey, since I neglected to say it before - great thread trip.  I don't agree with everything, but I love the discussion you created.

Well done.

 
This is one of my main gripes about snake drafting and one of the many reasons I primarily play auction now. But if I was stuck drafting at the turn there, I'd probably just reach for somebody I want that won't make it back to me at 48. It is painful to reach 10+ spots, but I'd rather have Keenan than Hopkins or Cooks.
I disagree specifically about Hopkins, but I agree with the premise.  I'd rather reach for DT or Crowell at the 2/3 swing than take one of the hive-minders like Cooks. 

I don't do many redrafts but Lamar Miller and Marshawn Lynch are going waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay before I would be taking them.

 
Good thread, good analysis. 

That said, I think you are ignoring injuries too much in your breakdowns of what happened last year. While I am down on Murray too, he didn't "wear down" at the end of last year. He picked up a foot injury that had him playing hobbled down the stretch. I remember even mentioning when the injury happened that it seemed like the kind of thing that guys regularly play through, but poorly, and predicted a big dropoff along with it. That's exactly what happened. 

Same issue with the narrative that Crabtree outscored Cooper last year. While true, Cooper outscored Crabtree big time last year through the first half of the season. Then he showed up on the injury report and wasn't the same the rest of the year, and fell off big time. 

The interesting thing to me about Cooper is that if his injuries were a little worse and he'd had to sit out the rest of the year I think his value would actually be higher than it is now, because we'd all be sitting around projecting him out to his 8 game pace last year. But because he played through it and the injuries weren't big pronounced ones people seem to have not noticed how dominant he was when healthy. He goes earlier than Crabtree because he has 100/1500/10 upside that Crabtree does not, and upside can win championships. There are lots of players being drafted ahead of guys who outscored them last year. 

 
Good thread, good analysis. 

That said, I think you are ignoring injuries too much in your breakdowns of what happened last year. While I am down on Murray too, he didn't "wear down" at the end of last year. He picked up a foot injury that had him playing hobbled down the stretch. I remember even mentioning when the injury happened that it seemed like the kind of thing that guys regularly play through, but poorly, and predicted a big dropoff along with it. That's exactly what happened. 

Same issue with the narrative that Crabtree outscored Cooper last year. While true, Cooper outscored Crabtree big time last year through the first half of the season. Then he showed up on the injury report and wasn't the same the rest of the year, and fell off big time. 

The interesting thing to me about Cooper is that if his injuries were a little worse and he'd had to sit out the rest of the year I think his value would actually be higher than it is now, because we'd all be sitting around projecting him out to his 8 game pace last year. But because he played through it and the injuries weren't big pronounced ones people seem to have not noticed how dominant he was when healthy. He goes earlier than Crabtree because he has 100/1500/10 upside that Crabtree does not, and upside can win championships. There are lots of players being drafted ahead of guys who outscored them last year. 
I'm open to the idea an injury slowed him down but every player gets hurt every year. Why is Cooper's injury more "forgivable"?

 
I disagree specifically about Hopkins, but I agree with the premise.  I'd rather reach for DT or Crowell at the 2/3 swing than take one of the hive-minders like Cooks. 

I don't do many redrafts but Lamar Miller and Marshawn Lynch are going waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay before I would be taking them.
Latavius Murray was RB12 in ppg last year. I don't feel like a 31 yo Lynch represents a good risk-reward value proposition at RB14, but I don't think he's necessarily a bad pick there. IF he's healthy, I think he'll be better than Murray. That's a big "if" though. I probably won't pay a RB14 price for him in auction, but if I can get him at a slight discount I'd be happy to have him on a couple redraft teams for an excuse to root for Beast Mode one more time...

Hopkins, however, is being drafted right at what I consider his ceiling. I'll be shocked if he ends up as WR11 on a ppg basis this year. I think Keenan is a lock for top 10 ppg numbers in PPR and I think his injury history is overstated, yet Keenan is going a full round later.

 
Good thread, good analysis. 

That said, I think you are ignoring injuries too much in your breakdowns of what happened last year. While I am down on Murray too, he didn't "wear down" at the end of last year. He picked up a foot injury that had him playing hobbled down the stretch. I remember even mentioning when the injury happened that it seemed like the kind of thing that guys regularly play through, but poorly, and predicted a big dropoff along with it. That's exactly what happened. 

Same issue with the narrative that Crabtree outscored Cooper last year. While true, Cooper outscored Crabtree big time last year through the first half of the season. Then he showed up on the injury report and wasn't the same the rest of the year, and fell off big time. 

The interesting thing to me about Cooper is that if his injuries were a little worse and he'd had to sit out the rest of the year I think his value would actually be higher than it is now, because we'd all be sitting around projecting him out to his 8 game pace last year. But because he played through it and the injuries weren't big pronounced ones people seem to have not noticed how dominant he was when healthy. He goes earlier than Crabtree because he has 100/1500/10 upside that Crabtree does not, and upside can win championships. There are lots of players being drafted ahead of guys who outscored them last year. 
I don't think it was an injury for Cooper. If you look at the splits, Carr, Cooper, AND Crabtree saw second half dips in production. And FWIW, by FBG scoring, Crabtree actually outscored Cooper by 2 points in the first half.

 
Not sure what to think of Murray. Maybe at his current ADP, it's a little high, but I wouldn't pan people for taking him at his current ADP. My main thought with Murray is that if you do take him, you better make damn sure you get Henry too, even if you have to reach a little.

 
4.  Russel Wilson - Great football player, but is not in the right environment to put up elite fantasy numbers which is upside I would personally expect from the QB6.  Carson Palmer may outscore him this year like he did in 2015 and is going up to 10 rounds later.  There are too many other qbs to like to spend this high of a pick on Wilson.  Take that to the bank brohans.

ADP #53


Wilson is going at a point in the draft where there are some high upside players at other, critical positions still available.


It is two different things to say that Wilson is overvalued at QB6 than that it makes more sense to draft other positions at ADP #53 because there are good late value QBs. The second thing can be true without Wilson being overvalued.

For him to be overvalued would require that he isn't worthy of being drafted as QB6, and I completely disagree with that premise. Wilson was QB4 in 2015 and QB2 in the second half of 2015 when he caught fire. In 2016, the overall numbers are deceiving - he was QB27 over the first 7 games, then QB3 over the last 9 games. So for two straight seasons he has shown elite upside that directly refutes the bolded, with his only down period when he was playing through multiple injuries. Had he just sat out those games, his draft position would probably be higher than it is, and justifiably so.

Now Seattle has at least marginally improved its terrible OL, the running game should be better, and the WRs should be better (Lockett and Richardson back, added 3rd rounder Darboh).

 
Not sure what to think of Murray. Maybe at his current ADP, it's a little high, but I wouldn't pan people for taking him at his current ADP. My main thought with Murray is that if you do take him, you better make damn sure you get Henry too, even if you have to reach a little.
This is exactly why one shouldn't take Murray at adp though.  If I take the next rb in line, I can use that Henry pick for a starting wr, or te.  Drafting Murray locks you in to taking a handcuff in starter rounds.  No thanks.

 
It is two different things to say that Wilson is overvalued at QB6 than that it makes more sense to draft other positions at ADP #53 because there are good late value QBs. The second thing can be true without Wilson being overvalued.

For him to be overvalued would require that he isn't worthy of being drafted as QB6, and I completely disagree with that premise. Wilson was QB4 in 2015 and QB2 in the second half of 2015 when he caught fire. In 2016, the overall numbers are deceiving - he was QB27 over the first 7 games, then QB3 over the last 9 games. So for two straight seasons he has shown elite upside that directly refutes the bolded, with his only down period when he was playing through multiple injuries. Had he just sat out those games, his draft position would probably be higher than it is, and justifiably so.

Now Seattle has at least marginally improved its terrible OL, the running game should be better, and the WRs should be better (Lockett and Richardson back, added 3rd rounder Darboh).
He is going to early period.  Going too early = Overvalued.  

Im not a proponent of cutting out games and extrapolating hot streaks.

To expand on "environment", it's not trust the players around Wilson that matters, it's the offensive philosophy.  The Seattle regime isn't an "air it out" regime and I don't see that changing any time soon.

 
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I'm open to the idea an injury slowed him down but every player gets hurt every year. Why is Cooper's injury more "forgivable"?
Well for starters I don't think I'd agree that every player gets hurt every year.  The top 4 fantasy WRs last year (Antonio Brown, Jordy Nelson, Mike Evans, Odell Beckham) spent a combined 0 weeks on the injury report in the regular season.  Jordy showed up on the injury report in the post season, and underperformed compared to his in-season healthy numbers.

Beyond that, every injury is different.  Some affect play on the field more than others (Murray's for instance is a very obvious one that very regularly causes players to underperform).  So in looking at that, one thing I look at is how that injury coincides with the performance dropoff.  In both Murray and Cooper's case the drop in production lines up pretty much to the very day of them showing up on the injury report.  Really good before, meh after.  Cooper wasn't just on the injury report one week, he was pretty much on it every game for the entire second half of the season.  That is not normal for a little nick.

So then I think, is it just a coincidence that their play happened to dip on the exact same day that they picked up an injury?  Seems unlikely.  However in Cooper's case, @FF Ninja makes a pretty compelling case that it was just a coincidence for Cooper as the entire offense started sputtering then, not just Cooper.  So maybe I'm misreading the effect of the injury in this case and I'm pretty open to that idea now.

 
This is exactly why one shouldn't take Murray at adp though.  If I take the next rb in line, I can use that Henry pick for a starting wr, or te.  Drafting Murray locks you in to taking a handcuff in starter rounds.  No thanks.
I absolutely would not find it any more necessary to get Henry based on whether or not I had Murray.  Outside of injury I think a scenario where Henry becomes the unquestioned lead dog and Murray is just a back-up is pretty unlikely for 2017.  It's either going to be Murray as the lead dog or a RBBC where they both have meh value.  I actually think the latter is most likely which is why I'm avoiding the situation entirely unless one falls.  But I don't really see the point in owning a "handcuff" when the risk of that "handcuff" is that he forces a RBBC, not that he takes over completely.  Then all you've done is waste two picks on a mediocre fantasy situation instead of one.

 
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This is one of my main gripes about snake drafting and one of the many reasons I primarily play auction now. But if I was stuck drafting at the turn there, I'd probably just reach for somebody I want that won't make it back to me at 48. It is painful to reach 10+ spots, but I'd rather have Keenan than Hopkins or Cooks.
agree 100%. 

 
This is exactly why one shouldn't take Murray at adp though.  If I take the next rb in line, I can use that Henry pick for a starting wr, or te.  Drafting Murray locks you in to taking a handcuff in starter rounds.  No thanks.
I get that, but let's look at the guys around Murray's ADP(2.04):

Jay Ajayi

Michael Thomas

Jordan Howard

T.Y. Hilton

Amari Cooper

You can make a case for question marks for each one of those guys. So while Murray does have questions and would involve handcuffing him, it's not like the guys around him are perfect picks either.

 
I get that, but let's look at the guys around Murray's ADP(2.04):

Jay Ajayi

Michael Thomas

Jordan Howard

T.Y. Hilton

Amari Cooper

You can make a case for question marks for each one of those guys. So while Murray does have questions and would involve handcuffing him, it's not like the guys around him are perfect picks either.
In most leagues I'd rather have Thomas and Hilton over Murray.  

What format?

 
I think DMurray will continue to drop as we move deep into draft season.. then he will be too tantalizing for any of us to not pick up..

 
I think DMurray will continue to drop as we move deep into draft season.. then he will be too tantalizing for any of us to not pick up..
I, for one, would be willing to take him just for the 4-6 games he excels at the beginning of the season.  Let him wear down, he will have already served his purpose to me by then.

See also: Larry Fitzgerald

 
i'm actually pretty high on ty montgomery at the 4/5 elbow in PPR leagues (MFL ADP).  i've resisted the temptation of montgomery until i found out he's now 225 lbs and most of that weight gain was in his shoulder girdle. now i'm jumping on the wagon.  pair that with a really cheap handcuff at the end of the draft, if you feel so inclined, and i'm liking that value on that offense.

 
To expand on "environment", it's not trust the players around Wilson that matters, it's the offensive philosophy.  The Seattle regime isn't an "air it out" regime and I don't see that changing any time soon.
I don't disagree that Wilson is overvalued. And I wouldn't call them an "air it out" regime either, however FWIW:

Wilson pass attempts:

2012 - 393

2013 - 407

2014 - 452

2015 - 483

2016 - 546

The trend is clear. Room for regression there and I've heard talk about them getting back to running the ball more. But there is room for Wilson to be elite. I just would rather draft other positions at that spot. In general.

 
Great thread.  I agree with most of it except for Cooper.  Cooper was a great WR as a rookie and showed improvement last year.  I expect another step forward this season that pushes him noticeably ahead of Crabtree on the stat sheet by season's end. 

 

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