No, his ceiling is not top 5. 2015 was a perfect storm of (A) much better QB performance than should have occurred (B) tons of targets in general (C) tons of garbage time targets. It'll never happen again. 192 targets from like a QBR of 90. Going forward we're probably looking at 140-150 targets from QBs with a QBR of maybe 80. Likely without a third of them being in garbage time.
False. I think Allen was fully healthy his rookie year but just didn't get on the field week 1.
But really it's the injuries that Allen has suffered that leaves me unconcerned. In year 2, he got a fractured collarbone. In year 3, he got a lacerated kidney. That has to be the most fluky of all injuries. In year 4, he tore an ACL. These are all just random injuries. If he was like Alshon with recurring soft tissue injuries, I'd be really worried. I think I saw a stat that Alshon has been questionable for 13 of his last 21 eligible games. That's an injury prone dude. I learned my lesson with Miles Austin. Soft tissue injuries will sap athleticism. Frank Gore tore both ACLs and he's still going at age 34! Allen has just had bad luck. I mean, a lacerated kidney? C'mon. That's not injury prone. That's bad luck. Not all injuries are created equal. Some people just look at missed time. I choose to look at each injury on a case-by-case basis.