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Trip's Top 5 Overvalued - pre camp edition (1 Viewer)

Great thread.  I agree with most of it except for Cooper.  Cooper was a great WR as a rookie and showed improvement last year.  I expect another step forward this season that pushes him noticeably ahead of Crabtree on the stat sheet by season's end. 
Except that Cooper is going about 15 WRs ahead of Crabtree and Crabtree has been the better receivers the last two years.  Is Cooper going to produce that much more to make him worth taking two rounds earlier?

 
Latavius Murray was RB12 in ppg last year. I don't feel like a 31 yo Lynch represents a good risk-reward value proposition at RB14, but I don't think he's necessarily a bad pick there. IF he's healthy, I think he'll be better than Murray. That's a big "if" though. I probably won't pay a RB14 price for him in auction, but if I can get him at a slight discount I'd be happy to have him on a couple redraft teams for an excuse to root for Beast Mode one more time...

Hopkins, however, is being drafted right at what I consider his ceiling. I'll be shocked if he ends up as WR11 on a ppg basis this year. I think Keenan is a lock for top 10 ppg numbers in PPR and I think his injury history is overstated, yet Keenan is going a full round later.
I am interested in this. Isn't Hopkins ceiling a top 5 receiver? Why do you think Allen's injury history is overrated? He has been in the league 4 years and missed games every year.

 
Except that Cooper is going about 15 WRs ahead of Crabtree and Crabtree has been the better receivers the last two years.  Is Cooper going to produce that much more to make him worth taking two rounds earlier?
Yes.  If you want Cooper, you draft him earlier than Crabtree 

 
I am interested in this. Isn't Hopkins ceiling a top 5 receiver? Why do you think Allen's injury history is overrated? He has been in the league 4 years and missed games every year.
I have the same issue with Hopkins as I do Allen. The legend of them as elite fantasy WRs comes from a mystic 8 weeks in the late summer and early fall of 2015 where they both bombarded with a level of target that can not be repeated. After week 8 of 2015, Hopkins was on pace for 1,740 yards and 12 TDs. Allen was on pace for 1450 and 8 TDs. 

 
McCaffrey as a do-it-all RB2 just after the 3/4 turn?  I'm liking that all day long.  Stewart can still get his and leave plenty of touches for McCaffrey if Cam can just figure out how to throw a 5 yd pass accurately.  If Stewart plays less than 16 games - almost a lock there - McCaffrey is going to post some big numbers that very well could win FF championships.

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Agreed.  Coach Ron better not have a "same 'ol season" or the new GM will look to the 21st century NFL. McCaffrey is the new Marshall Faulk perhaps...

 
McCaffrey is smack-dab in the middle of the most overrated players for 2017..why'd he ONLY do WR pass drills at his pro day at Sanford? why'd he sit a bowl game this past season? Not sure any of that points to a soon to be stud.I think he's hiding something...he wants the payday and Ill bet he's one of those guys who's mysteriously hurt all the time. misses games for strange illnesses.but takes home wads of cash. buyer beware..vastly overrated. 

 from what Im reading about Cooks he's going to be a STEAL this season.BB doesnt give up a first rounder just to acquire a part time player. I dont get the lack of love for Cooks in NE. 

Wilson is a stud  plain and simple.

Cooper definitely is overrated. and only a nutcase would draft Matt Forte.

D. Murray is running out of time.feels like the Priest Holmes / Larry Johnson thing when LJ blew his doors off and rushed for mad numbers..I think the same happens with Henry and Murray. Id rather take a chance on Henry than an older man with a lot of use and abuse and a ton of carries in his NFL career.

 
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D. Murray is running out of time.feels like the Priest Holmes / Larry Johnson thing when LJ blew his doors off and rushed for mad numbers..I think the same happens with Henry and Murray. Id rather take a chance on Henry than an older man with a lot of use and abuse and a ton of carries in his NFL career.
Exactly how I see it. LJ looked so good you could not keep him off the field. Same thing going to happen here with Henry IMO. 

 
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I am interested in this. Isn't Hopkins ceiling a top 5 receiver? Why do you think Allen's injury history is overrated? He has been in the league 4 years and missed games every year.
No, his ceiling is not top 5. 2015 was a perfect storm of (A) much better QB performance than should have occurred (B) tons of targets in general (C) tons of garbage time targets. It'll never happen again. 192 targets from like a QBR of 90. Going forward we're probably looking at 140-150 targets from QBs with a QBR of maybe 80. Likely without a third of them being in garbage time.

False. I think Allen was fully healthy his rookie year but just didn't get on the field week 1. 

But really it's the injuries that Allen has suffered that leaves me unconcerned. In year 2, he got a fractured collarbone. In year 3, he got a lacerated kidney. That has to be the most fluky of all injuries. In year 4, he tore an ACL. These are all just random injuries. If he was like Alshon with recurring soft tissue injuries, I'd be really worried. I think I saw a stat that Alshon has been questionable for 13 of his last 21 eligible games. That's an injury prone dude. I learned my lesson with Miles Austin. Soft tissue injuries will sap athleticism. Frank Gore tore both ACLs and he's still going at age 34! Allen has just had bad luck. I mean, a lacerated kidney? C'mon. That's not injury prone. That's bad luck. Not all injuries are created equal. Some people just look at missed time. I choose to look at each injury on a case-by-case basis. 

 
No, his ceiling is not top 5. 2015 was a perfect storm of (A) much better QB performance than should have occurred (B) tons of targets in general (C) tons of garbage time targets. It'll never happen again. 192 targets from like a QBR of 90. Going forward we're probably looking at 140-150 targets from QBs with a QBR of maybe 80. Likely without a third of them being in garbage time.

False. I think Allen was fully healthy his rookie year but just didn't get on the field week 1. 

But really it's the injuries that Allen has suffered that leaves me unconcerned. In year 2, he got a fractured collarbone. In year 3, he got a lacerated kidney. That has to be the most fluky of all injuries. In year 4, he tore an ACL. These are all just random injuries. If he was like Alshon with recurring soft tissue injuries, I'd be really worried. I think I saw a stat that Alshon has been questionable for 13 of his last 21 eligible games. That's an injury prone dude. I learned my lesson with Miles Austin. Soft tissue injuries will sap athleticism. Frank Gore tore both ACLs and he's still going at age 34! Allen has just had bad luck. I mean, a lacerated kidney? C'mon. That's not injury prone. That's bad luck. Not all injuries are created equal. Some people just look at missed time. I choose to look at each injury on a case-by-case basis. 
I think of Kevin White as being similar to Allen, other than Allen actually showing what he's capable of.  I know some have considered White to be injury prone and a bust but his injuries were fluky as well.  White's concern should not be with his health but whether he can actually be a good WR.

 
I think of Kevin White as being similar to Allen, other than Allen actually showing what he's capable of.  I know some have considered White to be injury prone and a bust but his injuries were fluky as well.  White's concern should not be with his health but whether he can actually be a good WR.
It's an unpopular take, but I agree with you. The dude broke two bones and I think Joe had a blurb questioning if his athleticism remains after the two injuries which I thought was ridiculous. To me, Kevin White is essentially a rookie as far as my evaluation on him... he's pretty much a total unknown. But I don't question his athleticism, merely his ability to transition to the NFL game.

 
It's an unpopular take, but I agree with you. The dude broke two bones and I think Joe had a blurb questioning if his athleticism remains after the two injuries which I thought was ridiculous. To me, Kevin White is essentially a rookie as far as my evaluation on him... he's pretty much a total unknown. But I don't question his athleticism, merely his ability to transition to the NFL game.
So far it definitely hasn't, but it has only been 4 games. I have been a staunch White hater, but it's not like I did much better. I loved Parker that year and he's been disappointing himself. This is a real prove it year for both of those guys. 

 

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