Trip's Top 5 Undervalued RBs - Redraft PPR (1 Viewer)

[TripItUp]

Based on FantasyPros ADP(PPR)

1.  Javonte Williams - RB26, #64 overall - Javonte will win the workhorse roll easily in what should be a more functional offense.

2.  Mike Davis - RB28, #66 overall - workhorse RB in a new offense that could surprise, high floor and decent ceiling IMHO

3.  Ronald Jones - RB30, #79 overall - the best RB on one of the best offenses, Ronald Jones at age 23 is about to enter his prime

4.  Darrel Henderson/Xavier Jones - RB RB42/? #116/? overall - With Akers out of the picture there is value to be had here...I like the Henderson-Jones combo personally.

5.  Raheem Mostert/Trey Sermon - RB24/37  #65/96 overall - The Niners were plagued with injuries last year and we still saw glimpses of what the running game can do.  This is a low floor/high ceiling approach and is a gamble worth taking at current ADPs IMHO as I expect the Niners to be much improved in 2021.

 

[BobbyLayne]

 FYI - Mike Clay has Henderson At RB18, FBGs is a few spots higher (low 20s) for PPR

No mention of Fournette? Averaged 21.7 PPG in the 4 playoff games: 448 YFS, 18 receptions, and 4 TDs. Played well the last 3 weeks of the regular season as well. Age 26 season.

 

[King of the Jungle]

Good post. Remember when Ronald Jones has 23 rushes for 44 yards his rookie year? He has come a long way and I agree is the most talented back in that offense. The concern I have is not only Fournette who I can see Arians splitting with Jones, but Gio. A solid veteran third down back seems like a perfect compliment to Brady’s game. This may one of the messier backfields in the league.

 

[wgoldsph]

I feel like that sf backfield is a minefield.  One week could have a guy go 20/150/3 5/50/1 and the next week have five different guys go 4/40/0 1/5/0 and there's no telling which you're going to get.

Also, what makes den's o more functional this year than last?  Is Bridgewater really an upgrade on Lock?

 

[TripItUp]

I feel like that sf backfield is a minefield.  One week could have a guy go 20/150/3 5/50/1 and the next week have five different guys go 4/40/0 1/5/0 and there's no telling which you're going to get.

The perfect RB3 imho.

 

[TripItUp]

Also, what makes den's o more functional this year than last?  Is Bridgewater really an upgrade on Lock?

Bridgewater is a significant upgrade by many accounts.  

 

[Dez]

Ummmm pretty sure Henderson's value there at RB42 is pre Akers injury that is where he was going.  You can't use that as a value now.

He goes round 4-6 range is that still value ?  I am not touching him in round 4.

 

[TripItUp]

No mention of Fournette? Averaged 21.7 PPG in the 4 playoff games: 448 YFS, 18 receptions, and 4 TDs. Played well the last 3 weeks of the regular season as well. Age 26 season.

Fournette is 1B at best in my projections, particularly in PPR.

 

[TripItUp]

Ummmm pretty sure Henderson's value there at RB42 is pre Akers injury that is where he was going.  You can't use that as a value now.

He goes round 4-6 range is that still value ?  I am not touching him in round 4.

In my FFPC best balls he is going earlier, but the combo is still value at round 6 or later imho.

 

[MAC_32]

In my FFPC best balls he is going earlier, but the combo is still value at round 6 or later imho.

Unless they add a meaningful vet his adp will probably be round 4 give or take within a couple weeks.

 

[MAC_32]

Is Bridgewater really an upgrade on Lock?

Bridgewater is not good and the answer to your question is still yes.

 

[TripItUp]

Unless they add a meaningful vet his adp will probably be round 4 give or take within a couple weeks.

My statement/opinion stands until they do so.   Even then, is a Leveon Bell gonna come in and make a lot of noise?

 

[MAC_32]

My statement/opinion stands until they do so.   Even then, is a Leveon Bell gonna come in and make a lot of noise?

If Henderson and/or Jones don't inspire confidence in August then given how this team has operated I expect them to swing higher and pay whatever asking price is demanded. I have multiple stocks of Henderson, but McVay's lack of trust displayed to this point leaves me side eyed. I'm glad I don't have any Henderson decisions to make over the next 6 weeks because top 50 is not a price point I'm willing to pay on July 25th.

 

[TripItUp]

If Henderson and/or Jones don't inspire confidence in August then given how this team has operated I expect them to swing higher and pay whatever asking price is demanded. I have multiple stocks of Henderson, but McVay's lack of trust displayed to this point leaves me side eyed. I'm glad I don't have any Henderson decisions to make over the next 6 weeks because top 50 is not a price point I'm willing to pay on July 25th.

yeah, I heard a Ronald Jones suggestion on a CBS podcast...that would certainly blow things up.  It's not out of the realm of possibility.

 

[MAC_32]

No mention of Fournette? Averaged 21.7 PPG in the 4 playoff games: 448 YFS, 18 receptions, and 4 TDs. Played well the last 3 weeks of the regular season as well. Age 26 season.

We all know what happened in January, but it seems many forgot that RoJo was being given the keys in December and Lenny was going to be cut if he didn't accept his new role. 

 

[MAC_32]

I feel like that sf backfield is a minefield.  One week could have a guy go 20/150/3 5/50/1 and the next week have five different guys go 4/40/0 1/5/0 and there's no telling which you're going to get.

This would be a greater concern if Sermon were not RB37. If that holds come September then I'm in on him as my first bench RB. Low risk/high reward.

 

[TripItUp]

We all know what happened in January, but it seems many forgot that RoJo was being given the keys in December and Lenny was going to be cut if he didn't accept his new role. 

correct

 

[Tanner9919]

thanks for putting the list together.

TB - Gio Bernard scares me , no need to touch Rojo it truly looks to be a messy situation not unlike the NE backfield over the years. I don't see a weekly trustworthy go-to guy in TB. Gio looks like he's going to be another James White type of player, and that screams potential for fantasy production in PPR.

Rams - Nice call on D Henderson. Who is X. Jones that he is going to steal touches from Henderson? DH is RB 42? That's an older ranking. Henderson is in the 12-15 RB range. Why? 1) opportunity, 2) no-name backups means he's getting the bulk of the workload , 3) head coach hell bent on running one guy in to the ground , 4) he was just as productive as Akers in 2020, with 5 more TDs. Next man up scenario.

I'm not buying a ticket on the the Mike Davis Express. Seems like a very average RB going to a lesser team with a new head coach. very risky pick, this team could be incredibly bad.

Beware the SF backfield it's going to be annoying to pick the star every week there. 

 

[Biabreakable]

Fantasy pros ADP is like 12 guys all mock drafting in their echo chamber.

Not a good resource to use for this at all in my opinion. I guess I hope my competition does use it.

 

[wgoldsph]

Are we all good ignoring the rookie Funk in the lar backfield?  Good measurables and ran well when he was healthy in college.  Downside was two acl tears but hey, there's an opening.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Fournette is 1B at best in my projections, particularly in PPR.

Fournette is much better in the passing game than Jones though. Personally I think he’s the better overall RB, but willing to allow that it’s highly debateable.

The addition of Gio Bernard makes TB a backfield to stay far away from - I don’t see the value even at that price. I think all of the obvious risks are baked into that price.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

We all know what happened in January, but it seems many forgot that RoJo was being given the keys in December and Lenny was going to be cut if he didn't accept his new role. 

And then…

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I'm not buying a ticket on the the Mike Davis Express. Seems like a very average RB going to a lesser team with a new head coach. very risky pick, this team could be incredibly bad.

Neither Atlanta nor Carolina are/were very good but Atlanta should be the better offense.

Matt Ryan > Teddy Bridgewater and the same is true with Sam Darnold there, except the gap may grow even bigger.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

The addition of Gio Bernard makes TB a backfield to stay far away from - I don’t see the value even at that price. I think all of the obvious risks are baked into that price.

Too many options on that team, even in the passing game. I just like the QB, D, and K.

 

[MAC_32]

And then…

Fournette became ranked RB27 and RoJo RB42 based on 4 games. There's obvious risk with the latter, but at those price points I'm only considering one of them. 

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Fournette became ranked RB27 and RoJo RB42 based on 4 games. There's obvious risk with the latter, but at those price points I'm only considering one of them. 

I'd let some one else have both (especially with Gio in the mix)  - I think those ADPs move a bit closer together as we get closer to real draft season (honestly ADP now means very little).

My main point though, is that you can chose to discount Fournette and try to build up Jones based on the fact that Jones started taking over the backfield in December, but that's ignoring the reality of what actually happened after that when the games mattered more. Neither stand out enough to shake the other - this backfield will be a total crapshoot from week to week.

 

[MAC_32]

I'd let some one else have both (especially with Gio in the mix)  - I think those ADPs move a bit closer together as we get closer to real draft season (honestly ADP now means very little).

My main point though, is that you can chose to discount Fournette and try to build up Jones based on the fact that Jones started taking over the backfield in December, but that's ignoring the reality of what actually happened after that when the games mattered more. Neither stand out enough to shake the other - this backfield will be a total crapshoot from week to week.

I'm not discounting what Fournette did in those 4 games just like I'm not discounting what RoJo did before he got put on covid ir, broke his finger, and strained his quad. There's currently a significant difference in their acquisition price though. As long as that's the case then it'll be easy to decide what to do until after Lenny comes off the board. Then it'll be decision making time. I think they should be valued similarly like you, but they aren't in the market right now. This backfield is not for the faint of heart, but the lead RB of a top 5 scoring offense could be a weapon in our game and his current going rate is that of a backup. 

 

[Dr. Octopus]

 This backfield is not for the faint of heart, but the lead RB of a top 5 scoring offense could be a weapon in our game and his current going rate is that of a backup. 

I think that's the issue - there is no lead back on that team, and now they've added one of the best pass catching backs into the mix.

I get that at some point every RB has value in the draft, but even at RB30, I don't see the value. I'd rather take later round fliers on true backups that are only an injury away from real value than trying to guess which week Jones will score 2 TDs and which week he'll get 5 carries for 20 yards.

 

[SoBeDad]

Bridgewater is not good and the answer to your question is still yes.

If Bridgewater doesn't win the job, it's because Lock is playing better than he did in 2020. With a deep and healthy receiving core, and potentially improved oline, and good coach, this offense could take a big jump.  I think Gordon maintains a role as a 3rd down receiving back, but Williams should get the goal line carries and could be a top RB later in the season. 

 

[Anarchy99]

I'm a bit curious where all the Henderson love is coming from. Sure Akers is out of the picture this year (if not longer). But I am not convinced they won't bring in someone else either as a FA or by trade. RBs come dirt cheap in trades these days.

Henderson has had 1 game with 20 carries with the Rams . . . and 13 games with single digit carries and 10 games without any carries. Sure, he has more opportunity now, but that doesn't necessarily mean he will become a bell cow RB. He's had 3 games with 15 or more carries out of 28 GP. He only had 8 games with 15+ carries in college (out of 38).

I've seen people project Henderson for 225-250 carries this year. I haven't done any drafts recently so can't comment on where he's getting drafted, but he seems to be getting projected in the RB15-20 range. I saw him taken in a recent mock draft at #38.

IMO, this looks like it will be a RBBC situation (especially if they add someone else). Sure, I'd be interested in Henderson if he tumbled down the draft board, but in a PPR league when he doesn't seem like a receiving threat, I'll let someone else take him several rounds before I would take him.

 

[TripItUp]

I'm a bit curious where all the Henderson love is coming from. Sure Akers is out of the picture this year (if not longer). But I am not convinced they won't bring in someone else either as a FA or by trade. RBs come dirt cheap in trades these days.

Henderson has had 1 game with 20 carries with the Rams . . . and 13 games with single digit carries and 10 games without any carries. Sure, he has more opportunity now, but that doesn't necessarily mean he will become a bell cow RB. He's had 3 games with 15 or more carries out of 28 GP. He only had 8 games with 15+ carries in college (out of 38).

I've seen people project Henderson for 225-250 carries this year. I haven't done any drafts recently so can't comment on where he's getting drafted, but he seems to be getting projected in the RB15-20 range. I saw him taken in a recent mock draft at #38.

IMO, this looks like it will be a RBBC situation (especially if they add someone else). Sure, I'd be interested in Henderson if he tumbled down the draft board, but in a PPR league when he doesn't seem like a receiving threat, I'll let someone else take him several rounds before I would take him.

In limited time, we saw him make a leap in year 2 that gives many, including myself optimism.  I particularly like him in PPR.   He wouldn't make this list if it were based on standard scoring.  I agree his value will take a hit if the Rams bring in a heavy hitter.

 

[TripItUp]

If Bridgewater doesn't win the job, it's because Lock is playing better than he did in 2020. With a deep and healthy receiving core, and potentially improved oline, and good coach, this offense could take a big jump.  I think Gordon maintains a role as a 3rd down receiving back, but Williams should get the goal line carries and could be a top RB later in the season. 

Bridgewater is winning the job.  Lock is terrible.

 

[Anarchy99]

In limited time, we saw him make a leap in year 2 that gives many, including myself optimism.  I particularly like him in PPR.   He wouldn't make this list if it were based on standard scoring.  I agree his value will take a hit if the Rams bring in a heavy hitter.

Henderson had 16 receptions in 15 games last year, 4 receptions in 13 games the year prior, and averaged 1.6 receptions a game in 3 years in college. I haven't seen him play that much, but the numbers don't exactly reflect him having 80+ receptions like Gurley did. The Rams had 50 receptions split among three RB last year, which again doesn't really look like they were using backs as receivers all that often. Maybe that will change with Stafford, but I am not looking at the Rams RB situation and coming up with the same conclusions that you are.

As others have mentioned, I don't believe Henderson will be getting drafted anywhere close to RB42. Where would you draw the line in terms of him being over drafted? Like I mentioned earlier, in a 12 team league, he might be drafted a spot or two on either side of the Round 3/4 turn. That's too rich for my blood IMO.

 

[TripItUp]

As others have mentioned, I don't believe Henderson will be getting drafted anywhere close to RB42. Where would you draw the line in terms of him being over drafted? Like I mentioned earlier, in a 12 team league, he might be drafted a spot or two on either side of the Round 3/4 turn. That's too rich for my blood IMO.

I like him in the 6th round in PPR/12 teamers due to super cheap handcuffs + talent/opportunity.

We can have this conversation again in a few weeks when the ADP data is more mature.

 

[TripItUp]

Henderson had 16 receptions in 15 games last year, 4 receptions in 13 games the year prior, and averaged 1.6 receptions a game in 3 years in college. I haven't seen him play that much, but the numbers don't exactly reflect him having 80+ receptions like Gurley did. The Rams had 50 receptions split among three RB last year, which again doesn't really look like they were using backs as receivers all that often. Maybe that will change with Stafford, but I am not looking at the Rams RB situation and coming up with the same conclusions that you are.

I have Henderson projected for 45 receptions.

 

[wgoldsph]

I'm a bit curious where all the Henderson love is coming from. Sure Akers is out of the picture this year (if not longer). But I am not convinced they won't bring in someone else either as a FA or by trade. RBs come dirt cheap in trades these days.

Henderson has had 1 game with 20 carries with the Rams . . . and 13 games with single digit carries and 10 games without any carries. Sure, he has more opportunity now, but that doesn't necessarily mean he will become a bell cow RB. He's had 3 games with 15 or more carries out of 28 GP. He only had 8 games with 15+ carries in college (out of 38).

I've seen people project Henderson for 225-250 carries this year. I haven't done any drafts recently so can't comment on where he's getting drafted, but he seems to be getting projected in the RB15-20 range. I saw him taken in a recent mock draft at #38.

IMO, this looks like it will be a RBBC situation (especially if they add someone else). Sure, I'd be interested in Henderson if he tumbled down the draft board, but in a PPR league when he doesn't seem like a receiving threat, I'll let someone else take him several rounds before I would take him.

I really liked Henderson coming out.  Thought he had amazing "phone booth" directional quicks.  Of course he was drafted right before me in my rookie draft, but up until this point I haven't been complaining.

 

[woodstock]

Great thread. 

 

[Dez]

In my FFPC best balls he is going earlier, but the combo is still value at round 6 or later imho.

RB42 would be around the end of round 9/start of round 10. (This is about where he was going pre Akers injury)

RB20 is about where he is going now from the range of round 3 - 7 he is all over the place.

 

[TripItUp]

RB42 would be around the end of round 9/start of round 10. (This is about where he was going pre Akers injury)

RB20 is about where he is going now from the range of round 3 - 7 he is all over the place.

Yeah, I like him after round 5...anything before that is a bit too risky for my blood.

 

[wgoldsph]

Yeah, I like him after round 5...anything before that is a bit too risky for my blood.

At the end of August there's no way you'd be able to get him after the end of round 4 barring a trade for a clear cut starter.  None of the fa rbs are anything more than backups at best.

 

[TripItUp]

At the end of August there's no way you'd be able to get him after the end of round 4 barring a trade for a clear cut starter.  None of the fa rbs are anything more than backups at best.

that may be true, these are point in time valuation calls

 

[Instinctive]

Based on FantasyPros ADP(PPR)

1.  Javonte Williams - RB26, #64 overall - Javonte will win the workhorse roll easily in what should be a more functional offense.

2.  Mike Davis - RB28, #66 overall - workhorse RB in a new offense that could surprise, high floor and decent ceiling IMHO

3.  Ronald Jones - RB30, #79 overall - the best RB on one of the best offenses, Ronald Jones at age 23 is about to enter his prime

4.  Darrel Henderson/Xavier Jones - RB RB42/? #116/? overall - With Akers out of the picture there is value to be had here...I like the Henderson-Jones combo personally.

5.  Raheem Mostert/Trey Sermon - RB24/37  #65/96 overall - The Niners were plagued with injuries last year and we still saw glimpses of what the running game can do.  This is a low floor/high ceiling approach and is a gamble worth taking at current ADPs IMHO as I expect the Niners to be much improved in 2021.

In auction leagues, I'm basically planning for my entire RB list to be your #s 1, 2, 3, and 5 LOL. Total agreement.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

PPR I like Travis Etienne.  Should get a ton of targets in the passing game, which will come in handy when Jags are behind. 

 

[Anarchy99]

PPR I like Travis Etienne.  Should get a ton of targets in the passing game, which will come in handy when Jags are behind. 

Here's the thing with Etienne. Most projections I have seen have him only getting about 8 carries a game, so he would need a ton of receptions to be worth his ADP (MFL has him as RB16 in PPR leagues. I am always leery of rookie RBs as they don't usually get a ton of receptions out of the gate as first year players. Basically, he will most likely be a 3/4 turn pick in 12 team leagues. I have a hard time drafting a player that to me is getting drafted at his ceiling for this season. (I have seen him projected in several places in the RB25-30 range.) I like Robinson much better around draft pick 130. 

 

[TripItUp]

In auction leagues, I'm basically planning for my entire RB list to be your #s 1, 2, 3, and 5 LOL. Total agreement.

 

[Ilov80s]

We all know what happened in January, but it seems many forgot that RoJo was being given the keys in December and Lenny was going to be cut if he didn't accept his new role. 

I don't think that's really a positive for Rojo though. Seems to say as long as Fournette is being a good teammate, Lenny is the guy the staff wants on the field. 

 

[MAC_32]

I don't think that's really a positive for Rojo though. Seems to say as long as Fournette is being a good teammate, Lenny is the guy the staff wants on the field. 

RoJo was going to be the guy in December based on the body of work to date. Injury changed that and Lenny took advantage. Is it possible RoJo got Wally Pipp'd? Well, yeah, of course. Is it possible he shows in summer/fall what got him to the top of the food chain last season? Well, yeah, of course. 

 

[Ilov80s]

Funny how fantasy is. Mike Davis and Darrel Henderson are basically on my don't draft list. Henderson got his chance last year and the staff preferred Malcolm Brown. I don't think they trust that Henderson can handle much of a workload. If they truly don't sign another back, he's going to end up being around the end of round 3. I like Mike Davis but he's a 27 year old RB on his 5th team in 7 years. I know he produced pretty well for fantasy last year but he really wasn't that good. 3.9 ypc, 6.3 ypc. After week 6, he only averaged 11.6 ppr ppg which is like Nyheim Hines, JD McKissic level of production. I just don't see much upside for him. I would much rather have the WRs in that range (Aiyuk, Higgins, Claypool, etc).

 

[Ilov80s]

RoJo was going to be the guy in December based on the body of work to date. Injury changed that and Lenny took advantage. Is it possible RoJo got Wally Pipp'd? Well, yeah, of course. Is it possible he shows in summer/fall what got him to the top of the food chain last season? Well, yeah, of course. 

Yeah, that's a good point. I still like the WRs in that area a lot, but Rojo isn't a crazy bet. 

 

[MAC_32]

Yeah, that's a good point. I still like the WRs in that area a lot, but Rojo isn't a crazy bet. 

This is where I think the difference between fantasy pros and the fbg draft list matters. I'm probably not drafting RoJo if he's RB30 - like you, I'm probably picking WR's. But if he's one of those that fall into that pool of RB's 35-45 after I'm done with WR's then he'll be in my queue.