Happy Thanksgiving everyone. In honor of this great holiday, I've decided to do a writeup on my top picks in the fanduel Thanksgiving only contests. Feel free to share your own.
QBs
Tony Romo - Dallas QB - $7800 - Must win for the Boys and Romo wants to please his city on Thanksgiving day. Washington is arguably the worst pass D in the league and to add insult to injury, they just lost their Strong Safety, Brandon Merriweather for the season. Romo and his WRs are finally getting on the same page and I see them having success today. With Demarco Murray out and a banged up Fragile Felix Jones, Dallas will likely throw the ball 40+ times this game. Romo should be throwing all day with success. This should be one of those games where Romo reminds you of how good he can be.
Matthew Stafford - $8900 - It's a toss up between him and Brady as my runner up, but at a slightly cheaper price and playing at home, I'm going with Stafford. Houston is also on a short week after playing 5 quarters where they got lit up by the Jags and Chad Henne. Houston's stud DB, Johnathan Joseph is also a game time decision after straining his hammy last week.
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RBs
Not many prime choices here. Arian Foster is the clear cut #1, and should be a trendy pick on this day. He's wearing down with his insane work load this season, and coming off a short week after a 5 quarter game where he got another big work load and looked pedestrian. His value depends on scoring TD's inside the 5, so he's a gamble and not worth the price in my opinion. Let everyone else take him (and hope he doesnt score the TDs) and find the 2nd and 3rd best RBs at a much cheaper price.
Stevan Ridley - Cowboys RB - $7200 - Probably my favorite by default. Jets struggle against the run, and New England should be leading most of this game. Always a risk though with Belichick using Woodhead and Vareen (see value picks below) at any given time.
Alfred Morris - Redskins RB - $6800 - Not a flashy fantasy option, but once again, by default he's one of the better options on Turkey day. His value has tanked as of late, mainly due to the lack of goal line opportunities. He's still getting the yards and last week was promoted to 3rd down duties. You can run on the Cowboys, and the best strategy would be to control the clock and keep the Dallas passing attack off the field.
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WRs
1. Andre Johnson - Texans WR - $7500 - Last week, AJ finally put up the monster game all his fantasy owners have been waiting for. I see that momentum carrying over into this
week and look for Schaub to feed him the ball against a defense that has struggled against the pass most of the season.
2. Miles Austin - Cowboys WR - $6600 - Close to a toss up between Austin and Bryant. Austin has been quiet the past 2 games, and Bryant is coming off a monster game last week. I look for Washington to focus on shutting down Bryant, which should leave Austin in single coverage the majority of the time. Both WR's should see plenty of action against a Skins D that struggles against good WRs. I look for both to have 100 yards and a TD, with Austin getting a few more receptions and yards. I know it's typically frowned
upon, but consider rostering both Dallas WRs on a day where there's not many prime options.
3. Dez Bryant Cowboys WR - $6700 - See Miles Austin above.
4. Wes Welker - Patroits WR - $7500 - Odds are he won't see Cromartie much, so as long as that remains true, Welker could be in for a big work load. I also see him being used more in the redzone with Gronk being out.
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TEs
1. Jason Witten - Dallas TE - $5600 - With the running game ailing, Witten will act as an extension of the run/short game and be a check down for Romo early and often. Typically not a big redzone threat, look for Romo to get his good buddy a TD on Thanksgiving. His floor should be 8 catches for 70 yards. His ceiling is 14 catches, 90 yards and a TD.
2. Aaron Hernandez - Patroits TE - $6100 - He sat last week after being listed as a game time decision. Listed as questionable this week, but with the Gronk being out, I see him more likely being probable, so don't worry about the gamble to much. It be nice to have 1 week of observation to see how he's used with Gronk out, but I'm forecasting he'll get 6-8 targets and be a top 2 redzone target for Tom Brady. Higher ceiling than Witten, but lower floor.
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Team D/ST
With only 6 to choose from, picking a Team D/ST this week will likely be the difference between finishing in the money or not. The Texans headed into week 11 were by far the better defense of this bunch, but after getting embarrased by Chad Henne and the Jags last week, I'll take a pass. Johnathan Joseph is also a game time decision which would be a big downgrade if he doesn't suite up.
1. New England Patroits - $5600 - More of a matchup play rather than a confidence pick. They are coming off a good defensive effort, and playing a Jets offense that struggles when they are forced to pass the ball. Odds are they'll have to pass more than run this game.
2. Dallas Cowboys - $5200 - Hard to go against RG3 after putting up a perfect passer rating last week. The one thing the Cowboys are really good at is defending the pass though and the Skins WRs are nothing special. Look for the Cowboys to get a decent lead which will force RG3 to throw the ball more than Shanahan would like. He's still a rookie, and rookies make mistakes when the D knows the pass is coming.
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Value/Sleeper Picks
QBs
Mark Sanchez - Jets QB - $5500 - More of a matchup play. New England has been improving against the pass recently, but still rank as one of the worst in the league. Sanchez should be forced to air it out to keep up with the Pats high octane offense. Should post 300 yards and toss 2 or 3 TDs. If he can keep the turnovers under 2, he should be a top 3 QB on this day.
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RBs
Shane Vareen - Patroits RB - $4700 - Got 12 touches and a TD last week. Jets have a weak run D and very good against the pass. Patroits should be up by double digits most of this game and it makes sense to keep the ball on the ground. Could be in line for a similar amount of work as last week and a goaline opportunity or 2.
Danny Woodhead - Patroits RB - $5000 - Belichick likes to rub it in by using Woodhead vs the Jets seeing that they are the team the that let him go. He's genarally used in the hurry up offense though, so he's a risky play against a team who's offense isn't nearly as dynamic as the Pats. I like Vareen over him slightly seeing that he is guaranteed touches regardless of the situation.
Justin Forsett - Texans RBs - $4500 - This pick has an "if" next to it. Ben Tate is a game time decision. If he's a go, I'd say don't bother rostering Forsett or Tate seeing that they'll likely split backup duties. If Tate is out, that means Forsett will get all of the backup work. He looked like the better back last week (yes, better than Foster) getting 8 touches for 65 yards vs the Jags. With Foster looking worn down and coming off a short week, don't be surprised if Forsett gets 12+ touches in this game.
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WRs
Julian Edelman - Patroits WR - $5000 - Believe it or not, he was on the field more than Brandon Lloyd last week. In that time, he put up 5/58/1 and even rushed 1 time for 47 yards. And the cherry on top? He took a punt to the house. With Lloyd struggling and limited in practice with a knee ailment, don't be surprised if he takes another back seat to Edelman.
Ryan Broyles - Lions WR - $4500 - Could be the sneaky pick of the day. With Titus Young out, he should be the 3rd option at worst in this passing attack. Hauling in all his targets in recent games, Stafford was said that Broyles has earned a bigger role in this offense. With Megatron getting all the attention and Mike Thomas stretching the field, Broyles could be open all day in the middle.
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TEs
Dustin Keller - $4900 - Jets TE - Technically, Jason Witten could be listed here as well at his price. If you got the extra $700 in your budget, go with Witten and take the guaranteed points. If not, Keller isn't a bad choice. He has been a disapointment this season, but should have plenty of targets against a defense ranked 29th in fantasy points vs Tight Ends.
QBs
Tony Romo - Dallas QB - $7800 - Must win for the Boys and Romo wants to please his city on Thanksgiving day. Washington is arguably the worst pass D in the league and to add insult to injury, they just lost their Strong Safety, Brandon Merriweather for the season. Romo and his WRs are finally getting on the same page and I see them having success today. With Demarco Murray out and a banged up Fragile Felix Jones, Dallas will likely throw the ball 40+ times this game. Romo should be throwing all day with success. This should be one of those games where Romo reminds you of how good he can be.
Matthew Stafford - $8900 - It's a toss up between him and Brady as my runner up, but at a slightly cheaper price and playing at home, I'm going with Stafford. Houston is also on a short week after playing 5 quarters where they got lit up by the Jags and Chad Henne. Houston's stud DB, Johnathan Joseph is also a game time decision after straining his hammy last week.
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RBs
Not many prime choices here. Arian Foster is the clear cut #1, and should be a trendy pick on this day. He's wearing down with his insane work load this season, and coming off a short week after a 5 quarter game where he got another big work load and looked pedestrian. His value depends on scoring TD's inside the 5, so he's a gamble and not worth the price in my opinion. Let everyone else take him (and hope he doesnt score the TDs) and find the 2nd and 3rd best RBs at a much cheaper price.
Stevan Ridley - Cowboys RB - $7200 - Probably my favorite by default. Jets struggle against the run, and New England should be leading most of this game. Always a risk though with Belichick using Woodhead and Vareen (see value picks below) at any given time.
Alfred Morris - Redskins RB - $6800 - Not a flashy fantasy option, but once again, by default he's one of the better options on Turkey day. His value has tanked as of late, mainly due to the lack of goal line opportunities. He's still getting the yards and last week was promoted to 3rd down duties. You can run on the Cowboys, and the best strategy would be to control the clock and keep the Dallas passing attack off the field.
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WRs
1. Andre Johnson - Texans WR - $7500 - Last week, AJ finally put up the monster game all his fantasy owners have been waiting for. I see that momentum carrying over into this
week and look for Schaub to feed him the ball against a defense that has struggled against the pass most of the season.
2. Miles Austin - Cowboys WR - $6600 - Close to a toss up between Austin and Bryant. Austin has been quiet the past 2 games, and Bryant is coming off a monster game last week. I look for Washington to focus on shutting down Bryant, which should leave Austin in single coverage the majority of the time. Both WR's should see plenty of action against a Skins D that struggles against good WRs. I look for both to have 100 yards and a TD, with Austin getting a few more receptions and yards. I know it's typically frowned
upon, but consider rostering both Dallas WRs on a day where there's not many prime options.
3. Dez Bryant Cowboys WR - $6700 - See Miles Austin above.
4. Wes Welker - Patroits WR - $7500 - Odds are he won't see Cromartie much, so as long as that remains true, Welker could be in for a big work load. I also see him being used more in the redzone with Gronk being out.
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TEs
1. Jason Witten - Dallas TE - $5600 - With the running game ailing, Witten will act as an extension of the run/short game and be a check down for Romo early and often. Typically not a big redzone threat, look for Romo to get his good buddy a TD on Thanksgiving. His floor should be 8 catches for 70 yards. His ceiling is 14 catches, 90 yards and a TD.
2. Aaron Hernandez - Patroits TE - $6100 - He sat last week after being listed as a game time decision. Listed as questionable this week, but with the Gronk being out, I see him more likely being probable, so don't worry about the gamble to much. It be nice to have 1 week of observation to see how he's used with Gronk out, but I'm forecasting he'll get 6-8 targets and be a top 2 redzone target for Tom Brady. Higher ceiling than Witten, but lower floor.
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Team D/ST
With only 6 to choose from, picking a Team D/ST this week will likely be the difference between finishing in the money or not. The Texans headed into week 11 were by far the better defense of this bunch, but after getting embarrased by Chad Henne and the Jags last week, I'll take a pass. Johnathan Joseph is also a game time decision which would be a big downgrade if he doesn't suite up.
1. New England Patroits - $5600 - More of a matchup play rather than a confidence pick. They are coming off a good defensive effort, and playing a Jets offense that struggles when they are forced to pass the ball. Odds are they'll have to pass more than run this game.
2. Dallas Cowboys - $5200 - Hard to go against RG3 after putting up a perfect passer rating last week. The one thing the Cowboys are really good at is defending the pass though and the Skins WRs are nothing special. Look for the Cowboys to get a decent lead which will force RG3 to throw the ball more than Shanahan would like. He's still a rookie, and rookies make mistakes when the D knows the pass is coming.
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Value/Sleeper Picks
QBs
Mark Sanchez - Jets QB - $5500 - More of a matchup play. New England has been improving against the pass recently, but still rank as one of the worst in the league. Sanchez should be forced to air it out to keep up with the Pats high octane offense. Should post 300 yards and toss 2 or 3 TDs. If he can keep the turnovers under 2, he should be a top 3 QB on this day.
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RBs
Shane Vareen - Patroits RB - $4700 - Got 12 touches and a TD last week. Jets have a weak run D and very good against the pass. Patroits should be up by double digits most of this game and it makes sense to keep the ball on the ground. Could be in line for a similar amount of work as last week and a goaline opportunity or 2.
Danny Woodhead - Patroits RB - $5000 - Belichick likes to rub it in by using Woodhead vs the Jets seeing that they are the team the that let him go. He's genarally used in the hurry up offense though, so he's a risky play against a team who's offense isn't nearly as dynamic as the Pats. I like Vareen over him slightly seeing that he is guaranteed touches regardless of the situation.
Justin Forsett - Texans RBs - $4500 - This pick has an "if" next to it. Ben Tate is a game time decision. If he's a go, I'd say don't bother rostering Forsett or Tate seeing that they'll likely split backup duties. If Tate is out, that means Forsett will get all of the backup work. He looked like the better back last week (yes, better than Foster) getting 8 touches for 65 yards vs the Jags. With Foster looking worn down and coming off a short week, don't be surprised if Forsett gets 12+ touches in this game.
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WRs
Julian Edelman - Patroits WR - $5000 - Believe it or not, he was on the field more than Brandon Lloyd last week. In that time, he put up 5/58/1 and even rushed 1 time for 47 yards. And the cherry on top? He took a punt to the house. With Lloyd struggling and limited in practice with a knee ailment, don't be surprised if he takes another back seat to Edelman.
Ryan Broyles - Lions WR - $4500 - Could be the sneaky pick of the day. With Titus Young out, he should be the 3rd option at worst in this passing attack. Hauling in all his targets in recent games, Stafford was said that Broyles has earned a bigger role in this offense. With Megatron getting all the attention and Mike Thomas stretching the field, Broyles could be open all day in the middle.
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TEs
Dustin Keller - $4900 - Jets TE - Technically, Jason Witten could be listed here as well at his price. If you got the extra $700 in your budget, go with Witten and take the guaranteed points. If not, Keller isn't a bad choice. He has been a disapointment this season, but should have plenty of targets against a defense ranked 29th in fantasy points vs Tight Ends.
Seems you have this mapped out pretty well, carry on
